Excluded from performance statistics: Event Gaps forecasts must be created during regular US market hours. Historical results below are retained for audit only.
Asked Sep 8, 10:38 PM EDT (after hours). GPT-5.6 Sol, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Grok 4.5, Gemini 3 Pro and Claude Opus 5 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-09 (1 trading session). Benchmark: SPY.
Long positions scored on the target session’s open-to-close return minus SPY’s. Gap calls are graded separately. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY from the open.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Intraday alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.18% | -0.22% | 0.40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -1.89% | -0.22% | -1.67% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1/5 | 20.00% | -0.41% | -0.22% | -0.19% |
| Grok 4.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -5.18% | -0.22% | -4.96% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 2/5 | 40.00% | -3.78% | -0.22% | -3.56% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -4.66% | -0.22% | -4.44% |
GPT-5.6 Sol
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The September 8 market produced unusually large event-driven dispersion despite a 0.58% decline in the S&P 500. AI infrastructure, semiconductors and optical networking attracted strong buying, while company-specific disappointments generated sharp losses elsewhere. For the September 9 open, I expect overnight price discovery to continue around the most material September 8 announcements. Because the primary score is open-to-close relative performance rather than gap accuracy, the ranking favors catalysts that can continue influencing regular-session sentiment after the opening auction rather than simply the largest expected gaps.
- INTC — confidence 70%. The catalyst has occurred as a September 8 report rather than an official Intel announcement. Intel rose about 9% during the source session after reports that it could raise PC CPU prices by roughly 10% in October, alongside evidence of strong server-CPU demand related to AI data centers. The unusually large move while the broad market declined indicates strong emotional and relative momentum that could carry into the September 9 opening. I expect an upward gap, but the open-to-close thesis is more restrained because much of the immediate repricing already happened Tuesday; continued discussion of pricing power and server demand could support follow-through, while profit-taking after a 9% surge is the principal risk. Source: MarketWatch, published September 8, 2026.
Return: 3.45%; alpha: 3.67%. - GLW — confidence 69%. The catalyst has occurred and is officially announced. Verizon and Corning disclosed a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar agreement under which Corning will supply more than 80 million miles of high-density optical fiber and connectivity products from 2027 through 2032. GLW rose sharply September 8, demonstrating that investors interpreted the agreement as further evidence that Corning is becoming critical infrastructure for AI data centers. I expect an upward September 9 gap as the market continues processing the scale of the agreement. The open-to-close continuation case is supported by the long-duration revenue narrative, but emotional enthusiasm after Tuesday's approximately 7% to 8% advance creates substantial mean-reversion risk. Source: Reuters, September 8, 2026.
Return: 0.27%; alpha: 0.49%. - QCOM — confidence 68%. The catalyst has occurred and the partnership has been announced. Reuters reported a long-term Qualcomm-Amazon collaboration under which Amazon could purchase as much as $60 billion of Qualcomm AI data-center chips and related products, while receiving warrants representing roughly $4 billion of Qualcomm stock. QCOM gained about 3.2% September 8 but finished well below its intraday high, so the next open could reflect additional overnight reassessment without starting from as extreme a closing move as INTC or GLW. I expect an upward gap and modest positive emotional continuation because the agreement materially expands Qualcomm's AI-infrastructure narrative. Risks are that the headline $60 billion figure represents potential long-term purchases rather than guaranteed immediate revenue and that Tuesday's intraday fade signals skepticism. Source: Reuters, September 8, 2026.
Return: 0.96%; alpha: 1.18%. - IONQ — confidence 66%. The catalyst has occurred: IonQ held its September 8 Investor Day, raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450 million-$460 million following the SkyWater acquisition, unveiled its sixth-generation Superion platform and discussed an accelerated technology roadmap. The stock initially surged to roughly $44.43 but reversed sharply and finished near $39.60, creating a highly emotional post-event setup. I expect a modest downward gap because the failed positive-news breakout suggests that expectations had become excessive. However, because this is a long-portfolio experiment, the open-to-close thesis differs from the gap call: a negative opening could be followed by stabilization or partial recovery as investors reassess the materially higher revenue base and expanded manufacturing capabilities. The major risk is continued post-event liquidation rather than stabilization. Source: Barron's, September 8, 2026.
Return: -3.47%; alpha: -3.25%. - BSX — confidence 65%. The negative catalyst has occurred and was disclosed by Boston Scientific. The company said the August 25 cyberattack disrupted manufacturing and order processing and that it no longer expects to achieve its previously issued third-quarter and full-year 2026 sales and adjusted-profit forecasts. The September 8 decline indicates that repricing is already underway, but uncertainty about the ultimate financial impact can continue influencing overnight sentiment, supporting a further downward opening gap. The open-to-close thesis is different: because major distribution centers are again processing orders and most manufacturing has resumed, an emotionally weak opening could stabilize as investors distinguish temporary operational disruption from longer-term franchise damage. The risk is that analysts make additional estimate reductions or investors interpret the incident as evidence of deeper operational problems, producing continued selling after the open. Source: Reuters, September 8, 2026.
Return: -0.32%; alpha: -0.10%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Source Sep 8 was first session after Labor Day with choppy trade around SPY $765.88. Key catalysts occurred after close Sep 8: GME Q2 profit jump on eBay stake, CASY Q1 beat by $0.77 EPS with 24% sales growth, and heavy options pricing 9% move for GME. For target Sep 9 open, we expect sharp gaps up for GME and CASY on occurred beats, plus anticipatory positioning for Sep 9-10 scheduled earnings: CAL footwear Q2 before open Sep 9, COO medical devices after close Sep 9, and ORCL Q1 FY27 after close Sep 10 officially scheduled Sep 2. ORCL anticipation can drive Sep 9 session as AI cloud expectations build. Equal-weight LONG portfolio targets open-to-close reversal of overnight gaps vs SPY.
- GME — confidence 72%. Occurred event Sep 8 after close: Q2 FY26 net income $298.7M $0.51 EPS vs $168.6M $0.31 prior year, EPS $0.27 in line with consensus, operating income $150-170M preliminary. Catalyst substantive but quality low due to eBay equity gains boosting bottom line. TipRanks options tool priced 9.04% move. Expect 7% gap up at Sep 9 open on profit doubling and raised full-year outlook headlines, but open-to-close LONG fade risk as core retail remains weak and gain is non-recurring. Emotional continuation then mean-reversion vs SPY.
Return: 4.14%; alpha: 4.36%. - CASY — confidence 75%. Occurred event Sep 8 after close: Q1 FY27 EPS $7.37 beating Zacks $6.6 by $0.77 (+11.7%) and consensus $6.78, revenue $5.68B +24.3% YoY beating $5.57B estimate, ROE 18.73% net margin 4.07%. Substantive beat on convenience store strength. Officially scheduled Sep 8 after close with call Sep 9 7:30am central. Expect 4.5% gap up at Sep 9 open, LONG open-to-close as beat magnitude supports continuation vs SPY, though fuel margin volatility risk.
Return: 0.25%; alpha: 0.47%. - CAL — confidence 68%. Scheduled event Sep 9 before open: Caleres Q2 2026 results moved one day earlier from Sep 10 to Sep 9, consensus $0.37 EPS $702M revenue. Footwear retail under pressure after LULU -17% cut. Anticipation of miss could drive gap down pre-market, but positioning for Sep 9 open reflects expectation. Even though event occurs at open, anticipation affects Sep 9 session as shorts cover into print. Expect 3% gap down at open on cautious guidance, but LONG open-to-close bounce if results not as bad as LULU read-through. Uncertain expectation.
Return: -6.68%; alpha: -6.46%. - COO — confidence 66%. Scheduled event Sep 9 after close: Cooper Companies Q3 FY26 earnings, Street expects $1.11 EPS $1.1B revenue, minimal YoY improvement. Medical devices/instruments defensive. Anticipation of steady results may lift into Sep 9 close as investors position long before print. Gap up expectation 2.5% at Sep 9 open reflects early positioning for after-close beat potential. Event occurs after target open but anticipation affects target session now. Risk: if guidance soft, open-to-close fades.
Return: -5.96%; alpha: -5.74%. - ORCL — confidence 70%. Officially scheduled future event Sep 10 after close: Oracle Q1 FY27 earnings announced Sep 2 PRNewswire, historically strong cloud growth. FY26 Q2 showed AI tailwinds. Anticipation builds Sep 9 as traders front-run AI cloud results after AVGO $34.8B Q4 guide and Broadcom AI strength. Expect 2% gap up at Sep 9 open on momentum despite event being Sep 10, as market prices in beat. LONG open-to-close vs SPY as ORCL correlation to semis supports. Uncertain expectation but scheduled date confirmed, not speculation.
Return: -1.17%; alpha: -0.95%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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Heading into Wednesday, September 9, 2026, U.S. markets are displaying a mixed and highly idiosyncratic tone. After-hours trading on Tuesday highlighted aggressive moves in specific technology, retail, and biotechnology names, diverging from the broader index sluggishness caused by surging crude oil and inflation concerns. Traders are aggressively front-running impending earnings reports and reacting violently to fresh analyst upgrades and dilutive secondary offerings.
- DYN — confidence 90%. Dyne Therapeutics announced an upsized $375 million public stock offering after the market closed on September 8. This dilutive event has already occurred, triggering a severe 16% plunge in after-hours trading as current shareholders faced immediate equity dilution. We expect a sharp gap down at the September 9 open as the broader market digests the offering. The emotional continuation risk is high; early panic selling could persist into the morning, though institutional value buyers might eventually step in to establish a floor.
Return: -0.98%; alpha: -0.76%. - ECHO — confidence 85%. EchoStar received a massive upgrade from UBS from Neutral to Buy on Tuesday evening, with the firm dramatically raising its price target to $150 based on the hidden value of the company's SpaceX stake. This unexpected, highly bullish catalyst occurred late Tuesday and will force a major re-rating of the stock. We anticipate a powerful gap up at the open as momentum traders and institutions rush to price in this proxy exposure to SpaceX. The primary risk is a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' fade if the initial opening spike exhausts early buying power.
Return: -2.05%; alpha: -1.83%. - INTC — confidence 80%. Intel was upgraded by Northland Securities to Outperform with a $120 price target on Tuesday, accompanied by reports of a potential 10% CPU price hike. While the event occurred during Tuesday's regular session (driving an 8% gain), the momentum continued aggressively in after-hours trading, where INTC gained an additional 3.5%. This sustained after-hours strength sets up a definitive gap up at Wednesday's open. The primary risk is that the stock may face heavy profit-taking shortly after the bell following such a steep, multi-session run.
Return: 3.45%; alpha: 3.67%. - ORCL — confidence 75%. Anticipation is building rapidly for Oracle's Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings report, which is officially scheduled for September 10. Despite the event being a day away, bullish sentiment surrounding its $638 billion backlog has sparked aggressive pre-positioning, driving the stock up roughly 3.5% in Tuesday's after-hours session. This intense anticipation guarantees a strong gap up at the September 9 open. The main emotional risk is that early buyers might lock in gains intraday rather than holding through the actual earnings print on Thursday.
Return: -1.17%; alpha: -0.95%. - AEO — confidence 70%. American Eagle Outfitters is officially scheduled to report its Q2 earnings after the market closes on September 9. Analysts are projecting a severe 53% year-over-year EPS decline. Investors began noticeably de-risking and trimming positions on Tuesday, and the options market implies a highly volatile 11% move. We expect this negative anticipation and defensive positioning to translate into a noticeable gap down at Wednesday's open. The risk to the downside gap is an intraday short-squeeze if the pre-earnings selling becomes too exhausted before the actual numbers drop.
Return: -1.29%; alpha: -1.07%.
Grok 4.5
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After a mixed session on September 8 with semiconductor strength offsetting broader softness, the next open is likely to be driven by residual post-earnings reactions and anticipation of Apple’s product event. Sharp gaps are expected in names that reported results after the prior close and in AAPL ahead of its keynote.
- AAPL — confidence 68%. Apple’s highly anticipated ‘Surprise and Shine’ event is scheduled for September 9 at 1:00 p.m. ET, expected to feature the first foldable iPhone, iPhone 18 Pro models, and new watches. Anticipation of the product slate and the first keynote under new CEO John Ternus can drive a gap higher at the open even though the event itself occurs after the open. Emotional continuation risk exists if the actual reveals underwhelm relative to elevated expectations.
Return: -0.05%; alpha: 0.17%. - CASY — confidence 65%. Casey’s General Stores reported Q1 results after the close on September 8, beating EPS estimates ($7.37 vs ~$6.78) and slightly beating revenue, yet the stock sold off sharply in after-hours trading (down ~8–11%). The gap down at the next open reflects the market’s negative interpretation of guidance or qualitative commentary despite the headline beat. Emotional continuation risk is high if selling pressure persists into the regular session.
Return: 0.25%; alpha: 0.47%. - TTAN — confidence 63%. ServiceTitan reported earnings on September 8 and the stock fell sharply (approximately 20% in after-hours/closing reaction). The large move indicates a significant negative surprise relative to expectations, setting up a gap lower at the next open. Continuation risk remains elevated given the magnitude of the initial reaction and the stock’s high beta.
Return: -14.75%; alpha: -14.53%. - BRZE — confidence 60%. Braze reported Q2 results on September 8 that beat estimates on revenue and adjusted EPS, yet the stock declined more than 5–12% as investors focused on forward guidance. The post-earnings sell-off is expected to produce a gap lower at the open. Emotional continuation risk exists if the guidance concerns dominate trading.
Return: -9.38%; alpha: -9.16%. - UNFI — confidence 55%. United Natural Foods reported Q4 results on September 8 with an EPS beat and a new $200 million buyback authorization. Shares reacted positively in premarket and early trading. Residual positive sentiment and the buyback news can support a gap higher at the next open. Risks include any fading of the initial enthusiasm or broader market pressure.
Return: -1.96%; alpha: -1.74%.
Gemini 3 Pro
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US equities closed lower on Tuesday, September 8, with the S&P 500 down 0.58% to 7,673.52. After-hours trade was volatile, with healthcare and energy stocks posting sharp moves on trial results, earnings, and M&A news. The pre-market session on September 9 is likely to see continued follow-through on these catalysts, with several stocks positioned for significant gaps at the open.
- ROIV — confidence 85%. Roivant Sciences surged 18.75% in after-hours trading on September 8 after the company announced positive Phase 2 trial results for its subsidiary Pulmovant's mosliciguat. The drug demonstrated a 'clinically meaningful and statistically significant placebo-adjusted reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance' in patients with pulmonary hypertension with interstitial lung disease. This is a major clinical catalyst that significantly de-risks the asset and validates the company's platform. The stock closed at $41.48, up from $34.93, and the momentum is likely to carry into the regular session as investors continue to price in the positive data. However, there is a risk of profit-taking at the open given the magnitude of the move, and clinical-stage biotech stocks can be volatile. The pre-market rally of 24% suggests strong conviction, but some pullback is possible.
Return: 1.01%; alpha: 1.23%. - CHYM — confidence 80%. Chime Financial jumped nearly 10% in after-hours trading after providing upbeat Q3 and full-year 2026 guidance and announcing a $590 million cash acquisition of Stride Bank. The stock closed at $32.31, down 4.30% in the regular session, but surged to $35.67 after hours. The Stride deal is expected to deliver over $100 million in net synergies and give Chime direct control of a national bank charter, improving unit economics. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to as much as $2.77 billion. The positive guidance and strategic acquisition are significant catalysts that should drive further buying interest at the open. However, the acquisition carries integration and regulatory risks, and the stock's after-hours surge may invite some profit-taking.
Return: -2.65%; alpha: -2.43%. - AVO — confidence 75%. Mission Produce popped 7.5% in after-hours trading after reporting fiscal Q3 2026 earnings that beat every analyst polled by FactSet on both EPS and revenue. The company posted revenue of $450 million, significantly above the $280.73 million consensus, and adjusted EPS of $0.18 versus $0.12 estimates. Management also raised its expected annualized Calavo synergies to more than $30 million. The stock had been under pressure into the print, down roughly 4.6% over the prior two weeks, so the positive surprise is likely to trigger a strong gap higher at the open. Risks include the possibility of profit-taking after the initial spike and the sustainability of avocado prices, which can be volatile.
Return: 3.23%; alpha: 3.45%. - TTAN — confidence 78%. ServiceTitan tumbled 19% in after-hours trading after issuing Q3 revenue guidance that came in slightly below analyst forecasts. The company expects Q3 revenue of $285–$287 million, while analysts were looking for about $290 million. Although the company beat Q2 estimates on both lines with revenue of $292.8 million, the weak guidance overshadowed the beat. The stock closed at $81.58 in the regular session and fell to $65.30 after hours. This is a classic 'beat and lower guidance' scenario that often leads to a sharp gap down. The market is likely to punish the stock at the open, though there is a risk of a rebound if investors focus on the strong Q2 performance and the full-year outlook raise.
Return: -14.75%; alpha: -14.53%. - INNV — confidence 72%. InnovAge rallied 11% in after-hours trading after releasing strong full-year guidance and Q4 revenue that beat expectations. The healthcare company issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $1.05–$1.085 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $105–$115 million. The stock had been trading near $10.75, and the positive outlook is a significant catalyst. However, the company's Q4 earnings per share came in slightly below forecasts, and there are concerns about 2027 rate pressures. The stock's after-hours move suggests strong positive sentiment, but the mixed results could limit the upside. A gap higher is expected, but the magnitude may be tempered by the EPS miss.
Return: -5.73%; alpha: -5.51%.
Claude Opus 5
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Tuesday September 8 delivered a dense after-close earnings slate, and five names carry confirmed extended-hours dislocations into the September 9 open. All five catalysts have already occurred and were verified against after-hours quotes captured at the 8:00pm EDT close of extended trading, not projected. Three gapped down (ServiceTitan roughly -20%, Braze roughly -13%, Casey's roughly -8%) and two gapped up (Chime roughly +9%, Mission Produce roughly +6%). The critical distinction for scoring is that this is an equal-weight long portfolio measured open-to-close, so a gap-down selection is a bet on intraday stabilisation after the opening print, not a short. That is a genuinely two-sided proposition: capitulation gaps frequently see forced sellers clear in the first hour and grind back, but emotional continuation is equally common when overnight sell-side downgrades land pre-open, which is the dominant risk on Braze and ServiceTitan. Wednesday's backdrop adds noise rather than direction — there are no scheduled US economic releases, but a heavy pre-open reporting slate including Chewy, Academy Sports, Signet, SailPoint and AeroVironment will churn small and mid-cap liquidity, and the index itself is contending with Brent near $99.46 on Strait of Hormuz escalation and positioning ahead of PPI on September 10. SPY fell 0.55% Tuesday and closed near its session low, which lowers the bar for relative outperformance but also means a broad risk-off session would drag all five regardless of their own news. Ranking prioritises expected open-to-close path over gap magnitude: the cleanest fundamental beats with the most modest gaps rank highest, and the deepest capitulation gaps rank lowest despite being the most dramatic diagnostics.
- AVO — confidence 58%. Thesis: this catalyst has occurred. Mission Produce released fiscal 2026 third quarter results after Tuesday's close, reporting revenue up 26% year over year to approximately $450 million, an earnings beat, and a raised synergy target. Extended-hours trading marked the stock at $13.58 against a $12.87 regular-session close, a gain of 5.52% recorded at 7:59pm EDT. This is the profile that historically holds through the session rather than fading: a clean top-line beat paired with raised internal targets, in a small-cap name where the gap is moderate rather than euphoric, leaving room for continued accumulation after the open. It is also a defensive consumer staple with no exposure to the oil shock or the semiconductor rotation driving the rest of the tape. Risks: small-cap liquidity means the opening print can overshoot and mean-revert quickly; avocado pricing is commodity-linked and volatile, so a single analyst note on input costs can reverse sentiment; and if the broad market sells off on pre-PPI positioning, low-float names can be dragged down disproportionately regardless of their own results.
Return: 3.23%; alpha: 3.45%. - CHYM — confidence 55%. Thesis: this catalyst has occurred. Chime announced the acquisition of Stride Bank for approximately $590 million, creating Chime Bank, N.A. and giving the company its own national bank charter rather than relying on a sponsor-bank arrangement. Extended-hours trading marked the stock at $35.21 against a $32.31 regular-session close, a gain of 8.98% recorded at 7:58pm EDT — notable because the stock had fallen 4.30% during the regular session before the news. This is a structural re-rating argument rather than a quarterly beat: owning the charter changes the regulatory and economics profile of the business permanently, which is the kind of news that analysts upgrade into rather than fade. Risks: acquisition-driven gap-ups fade more often than earnings-driven ones because there is no immediate financial datapoint to anchor the move; the $590 million price and integration timeline invite questions about dilution and execution once the call transcripts circulate; regulatory approval for a bank charter transfer is not instantaneous; and this is a recent IPO with an unstable shareholder base and elevated realised volatility.
Return: -2.65%; alpha: -2.43%. - CASY — confidence 53%. Thesis: this catalyst has occurred. Casey's General Stores reported fiscal first quarter 2027 results after Tuesday's close. The reported figures beat expectations, but the outlook was characterised as cautious and the stock tumbled — extended-hours trading marked it at $672.57 against a $733.49 regular-session close, a decline of 8.31% recorded at 7:59pm EDT, on top of a 2.99% regular-session loss. The open-to-close case rests on the gap being driven by guidance tone rather than by a fundamental miss: when the quarter itself beat, the initial liquidation often overshoots and partially retraces once the transcript is digested. Casey's is also a defensive convenience retailer whose fuel margins can widen when crude spikes, which is a live tailwind given Brent near $99.46. Risks: this is the archetypal emotional continuation setup, where a cautious outlook from a high-multiple defensive triggers multi-day de-rating rather than a one-day bounce; overnight price-target cuts landing pre-open would deepen the gap; and a high nominal share price above $670 means percentage moves translate into large point swings that can trigger further mechanical selling.
Return: 0.25%; alpha: 0.47%. - TTAN — confidence 48%. Thesis: this catalyst has occurred. ServiceTitan announced fiscal second quarter 2027 results after Tuesday's close, reporting total revenue of $292.8 million (up 21% year over year), platform revenue of $284.5 million (up 22%), over $50 million of non-GAAP free cash flow, and full-year fiscal 2027 guidance of $1,139–$1,144 million revenue with $152–$154 million non-GAAP operating income. The market reaction was severe: extended hours marked the stock at $64.95 against an $81.58 close, a decline of 20.38% recorded at 6:26pm EDT, following a 7.21% regular-session loss. One evidence conflict worth stating: a Seeking Alpha headline attributed the decline partly to a management shakeup overshadowing the results, but the company's own release announced no management changes, so I cannot confirm that element and am not treating it as established. The long case is mechanical rather than fundamental — a greater than 20% single-name gap on results that still showed 21% growth typically clears forced sellers in the opening hour, and the deepest gaps have the widest bounce potential. Risks: this is the highest-variance selection in the portfolio. If the management-change reporting is accurate, uncertainty about leadership is not resolved by one session and continuation lower is likely; software names that gap this hard frequently bleed for several days as institutions unwind; and if the guidance was genuinely below consensus rather than merely conservative, the re-rating is justified and there is no bounce to catch.
Return: -14.75%; alpha: -14.53%. - BRZE — confidence 44%. Thesis: this catalyst has occurred. Braze reported fiscal second quarter 2027 results after Tuesday's close, with revenue up 26% year over year to approximately $227 million and full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $910–$913 million, alongside commentary on BrazeAI adoption and an expanded AWS co-sell arrangement — but margin pressure emerged as the dominant theme in the coverage. Extended hours marked the stock at $26.40 against a $30.31 close, a decline of 12.90% recorded at 7:28pm EDT, following a 5.16% regular-session loss. The long case is that 26% growth with expanding AI product adoption is not a broken business, and a roughly 13% gap on a margin concern rather than a demand miss is the kind of dislocation that stabilises intraday. Risks: this is ranked last because the continuation risk is the highest of the five. Margin compression in high-multiple software is precisely the issue that triggers coordinated overnight price-target cuts, and those land before the September 9 open; the same margin theme punished Broadcom by 6% on September 3 despite a 221% AI revenue surge, showing how unforgiving this tape is on the issue; and a stock already down 5% into the print was showing distribution before the results, suggesting informed selling rather than a surprise.
Return: -9.38%; alpha: -9.16%.
How models have done in Event Gaps
No eligible settled runs are available at this horizon up to and including this forecast, so there is no overall statistics chart to show. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. Event Gaps forecasts must also be created during regular US market hours. Later runs are not included in this historical snapshot. Original results remain available for audit.
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 315.48500000 | 315.34000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AEO | 17.11000000 | 16.89000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AEO/history/ | |
| AVO | 13.00000000 | 13.42000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVO/history/ | |
| BRZE | 26.18000000 | 23.72500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRZE/history/ | |
| BSX | 45.10500000 | 44.96000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BSX/history/ | |
| CAL | 13.02000000 | 12.15000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CAL/history/ | |
| CASY | 627.47500000 | 629.03000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CASY/history/ | |
| CHYM | 35.49000000 | 34.55000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHYM/history/ | |
| COO | 67.50500000 | 63.48000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COO/history/ | |
| DYN | 19.38000000 | 19.19000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DYN/history/ | |
| ECHO | 93.23000000 | 91.32000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ECHO/history/ | |
| GLW | 168.00000000 | 168.46000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLW/history/ | |
| GME | 19.10000000 | 19.89000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history/ | |
| INNV | 11.70000000 | 11.03000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INNV/history/ | |
| INTC | 102.70000000 | 106.24000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/ | |
| IONQ | 39.51000000 | 38.14000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IONQ/history/ | |
| ORCL | 163.54000000 | 161.63000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/history/ | |
| QCOM | 174.72000000 | 176.40000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/history/ | |
| ROIV | 41.39000000 | 41.81000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ROIV/history/ | |
| SPY | 764.08000000 | 762.40000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TTAN | 67.00000000 | 57.12000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTAN/history/ | |
| UNFI | 45.50000000 | 44.61000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNFI/history/ |
Standard prompt event-gap-v5, SHA-256 96bda8b9ed3585be2e40597deac995647b40d5bc8e1fec516ac043edd631ef1c. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: event-gap-v2-missing-diagnostics.