This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for BTC, created 2026-09-18 14:33 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-19 14:33 UTC, when BTC closed at $81567.10, up 1.2% from $80576.01 when the forecast was made. It traded between $80504.15 and $81707.67 along the way (-0.1% to +1.4%).
Prediction window: Continuous elapsed hours / calendar days; crypto trades 24/7.
Prediction time: 2026-09-18 14:33 UTC (9/18/2026, 10:33:43 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-19 14:33 UTC (9/19/2026, 10:33:43 AM EDT). Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Crypto · 24/7. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, Grok 4.5, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and DeepSeek V3 found it accurately. GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, Grok 4.5, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and DeepSeek V3 quoted prices the market had traded earlier, before it moved: their calls are judged from that price, and their scores are discounted for its age.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $75800.00–$80600.00 | -2.8% to +3.4% | 58% | $77974.00 | 24.2 | right |
| Claude Opus 5 | $75750.00–$79900.00 | -3.0% to +2.3% | 54% | $78100.00 | 0.6 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $77500.00–$82500.00 | -3.8% to +2.4% | 54% | $80600.00 | 32.1 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $76800.00–$82200.00 | -3.4% to +3.4% | 42% | $79500.00 | 38.7 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $76000.00–$80000.00 | -2.2% to +2.9% | 65% | $77719.00 | 21.7 | right |
| DeepSeek V3 | $76000.00–$79500.00 | -2.3% to +2.2% | 62% | $77800.00 | 13.8 | no call |
How these models have done on BTC over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-18 14:33 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 5 | — | 3 | 2 · 2 right | — | 100% (2/2) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 11 | — | 2 | 3 · 3 right | 6 · 4 right | 78% (7/9) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 11 | — | 2 | 1 · 1 right | 8 · 5 right | 67% (6/9) |
| Grok 4.5 | 8 | — | 5 | 2 · 1 right | 1 · 1 right | 67% (2/3) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 8 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | 6 · 3 right | 57% (4/7) |
| GPT-6 | 6 | — | 2 | — | 4 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 11 | — | 4 | 4 · 2 right | 3 · 1 right | 43% (3/7) |
| Kimi | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published BTC forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-18 14:33 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: CoinDesk's live Bitcoin page showed BTC at approximately $77,974 when checked just after the 2026-09-18 14:33 UTC baseline, up about 1.75% over 24 hours. CoinMarketCap's real-time BTC/USDT converter simultaneously showed roughly 78,183 USDT per BTC, confirming that Bitcoin was trading near $78,000 rather than yesterday's mid-$76,000 area. Source: [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) and [https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/btc/usdt/
(2)](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/btc/usdt/
%282%29) Market regime: Bitcoin is in a short-term recovery after absorbing a hawkish global rates reset better than many risk assets. CoinDesk reported that BTC recovered from about $75,972 overnight toward $78,000 for a third consecutive daily advance, while 98 of 100 CoinDesk 100 constituents were higher as post-Fed nerves faded. At the same time, Reuters reported that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5% after the Federal Reserve's first rate increase in three years, so the larger macro backdrop is still restrictive. Sources: [https://www.coindesk.com/](https://www.coindesk.com/) and [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-rates-reset-ai-angst-oils-long-haul-financial-week-five-charts-2026-09-18/
(3)](https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-rates-reset-ai-angst-oils-long-haul-financial-week-five-charts-2026-09-18/
%283%29) Price range: I use $75,800-$80,600 for the next 24 hours. The lower bound sits near the overnight recovery origin around $75,972 and allows for a complete retracement if risk sentiment weakens. The upper bound reaches beyond the current $78,000 area toward the recent late-August and early-September resistance zone around $79,000-$80,000, with additional room for a momentum extension. The range is intentionally asymmetric to the upside because current momentum is positive, but not strongly so, and Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to rates and geopolitical headlines. Sources: [https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/18/bitcoin-weathers-september-storm-as-rate-hikes-and-clarity-act-setback-test-bulls](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/18/bitcoin-weathers-september-storm-as-rate-hikes-and-clarity-act-setback-test-bulls) and [https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
(4)](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
%284%29) Catalysts inside the window: The main catalysts are Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, Middle East energy headlines and institutional crypto flows. Reuters reported that global bond yields remain elevated after coordinated central-bank tightening, while oil has eased somewhat from recent peaks but remains vulnerable to renewed geopolitical disruption. CoinDesk also noted that Bitcoin has held up despite the Fed hike and a setback to U.S. crypto market-structure legislation, suggesting resilience but leaving policy headlines capable of moving price quickly. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-09-18/](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-09-18/) and [https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/18/bitcoin-weathers-september-storm-as-rate-hikes-and-clarity-act-setback-test-bulls
(5)](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/18/bitcoin-weathers-september-storm-as-rate-hikes-and-clarity-act-setback-test-bulls
%285%29) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that this rebound is only a relief move inside a restrictive monetary environment. The Fed has raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%, the U.S. 10-year yield recently moved above 5%, and Reuters reports continued concern about inflation and oil-driven tightening. A return below roughly $76,000 would materially weaken the mild bullish one-day view and suggest the recovery has failed, while sustained trading above roughly $79,500-$80,000 would indicate that buyers are overcoming the recent resistance zone. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-view-usa-2026-09-18/](https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-view-usa-2026-09-18/) and [https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/18/bitcoin-weathers-september-storm-as-rate-hikes-and-clarity-act-setback-test-bulls
(6)](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/18/bitcoin-weathers-september-storm-as-rate-hikes-and-clarity-act-setback-test-bulls
%286%29) Confidence: 58% reflects a modest positive edge rather than a high-conviction call. Live price momentum, broad crypto participation and Bitcoin's resilience after the Fed hike support MILD BULLISH signals through one day. Confidence stays below 60% because high Treasury yields, global monetary tightening, geopolitical energy risk and Bitcoin's tendency to reverse quickly around major macro events can overwhelm the current momentum within a single 24-hour window.
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: five sources converge tightly. Fortune quotes $77,979.54 at 8:00 a.m. ET, a $1,791.56 jump from yesterday morning, with market capitalisation near $1.33 trillion (fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-09-18-2026/). Crypto Times has BTC near $78,200 and cites TradingView's Bitstamp candle for 18 September opening at $76,355, trading $76,236 to $78,396 and last printing $78,003, up $1,648 or 2.16% (cryptotimes.io/2026/09/18/bitcoin-price-rebounds-to-78k-after-midweek-dump-fed-decision-and-senate-vote/). Bitcoin News Digest reports a session high between $78,100 and $78,400 with select exchanges printing near $78,460 (bitcoinnewsdigest.substack.com). Investing.com shows 77,927.0 against a previous close of 76,558.9 with a day range of 76,288.6 to 78,051.1. I anchor at $78,100. My freshest source predates the 14:33 UTC baseline by about an hour, so data_access is 'partial'.
(2) Market regime: a two-day rebound running directly into well-defined resistance. BTC has recovered from a midweek slide below $76,000 after absorbing the Fed's quarter-point hike and the Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act. The structure is constructive on most timeframes: price sits above the 20-day EMA at $76,952 and well above the 50- and 200-day EMAs at $73,842 and $73,169, and the 30-day change is plus 20.5% from a low of $64,036.9. Flows turned as well, with US spot ETFs recording $159.5 million of net inflows Thursday, halting two days of roughly $746 million in liquidations, though BlackRock's IBIT supplied $183.7 million of that while Fidelity shed $16.6 million and VanEck $7.6 million, so the demand is one issuer rather than broad participation. The Bank of Japan raised its overnight call rate 25 basis points to 1.25% in a 7-2 vote, its second increase in three months and the highest in 31 years, with the yen softening from 156.20 to 156.70 against the dollar.
(3) Price range: anchored at $78,100 with a downside tilt. I am using a daily sigma near 2.2%, giving about -3.0% to +2.3%, or $75,750 to $79,900. The asymmetry is about levels, not trend. Directly overhead sit today's $78,396 high, the 50-week simple moving average at $78,720 that Bitcoin News Digest identifies as the benchmark a weekly close must clear, and the $79,000-$80,000 band where every rally this month has failed, including $79,890 on 11 September and $79,530 on 14 September. Below, $76,952 is the 20-day EMA and $76,236 today's floor. So there is a cluster of resistance within 2% above and comparatively open space beneath.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: the window runs from Friday afternoon into Saturday, spanning the US equity close on a triple-witching session with more than $1 trillion of notional expiring, then into thin weekend liquidity. No macro data lands. The one structural feature worth naming is the weekly close on Sunday, with the 50-week SMA at $78,720 as the level chartists will read it against. Spot ETF flow reporting for Friday is the other mover, and it matters more than usual given how concentrated Thursday's inflow was. Middle East headlines remain live; CoinDesk reported this morning that Iran's Strait of Hormuz toll collection ran through a bitcoin exchange, which is a sanctions story rather than a price driver but keeps regulatory attention on the asset.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: the trend is up and I am leaning against it, which is the weaker side of most bets. Price holds above all three major moving averages, the month is up more than 20%, ETF flows have flipped positive, and a softer yen after the BOJ decision is short-term supportive of risk. Against that, a trader cited by Crypto Times argues the current structure resembles one that preceded a slide toward $60,000 and that the Clarity failure plus the Fed hike leave price with little upside, Glassnode-linked coverage notes BTC slipped below the $76,700 True Market Mean as corporate buying slowed, and Robinhood's prediction market currently prices a 53% chance BTC trades below $75,000 before month-end against 35% for above $82,500. A clean break and hold above $78,720 would invalidate my lean; a loss of $76,952 would confirm it.
(6) Why 54%: the anchor is the best I have had for BTC all week, with five independent sources agreeing within about $270, so the range should be reliable. The directional component is modest by construction. I updated bullish yesterday and that was right, but the easy part of the rebound is now behind us and price is parked under a resistance cluster with thinning weekend liquidity ahead. A small downward skew at 54% reflects a view about location rather than about trend, and I would not want it read as a call for a reversal.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports BTC Current $80,600.01 Open $76,953.14 High $80,989.99 Low $76,259.98 Previous Close $76,953.14 Change +3646.87 +4.7391% Sep 18. Convex reports Bitcoin $78,036.6 as of Sep 18 2026 live. CoinDesk Sep 17 reports price dipped to $76,700 then $77,400 after UMich sentiment plunge and CPI. Market cap $1.548T per Finnhub. 5-day -0.82% 1-month +23.11% YTD -12.58% 1-year -32.67%. Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% per Cambridge digested.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Sharp rebound post-hike digestion. From $76,700 Sep 17 low to $80,989 high Sep 18 +5.5% intraday. Crypto highest-beta macro per Convex, correlates loosely with tech and inversely with real yields. ETF flows likely turned positive after rate delivered. SOXL +9.9% Sep 17 shows risk on returning. Regime mildly bullish after washout.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $80,600 live Finnhub and $78,036 Convex. Using day range $76,259-$80,989 and $76,700-$77,400 prior. ATR ~3% ~$2400. Lower $77,500 near open $76,953 and $78,036 Convex -3.8% downside if profit taking, upper $82,500 +2.3% toward extension above $80,989 high captures momentum if ETF inflows continue. Slight upside skew due to +4.73% momentum Sep 18.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 18 14:33 UTC 24h covers Sep 18-19 post-FOMC. No crypto-specific events. Focus shifts to October Fed meeting per CoinDesk. Warsh remarks and Treasury yields $4.348% 2-year per Kitco Sep 17 drive. SpaceX Nasdaq 100 weight $12.4B passive buying per CoinDesk could spill to risk.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: hawkish Warsh guiding more hikes and 2-year yield up 11.8bp to 4.348% per Kitco could push BTC back to $76,259 low if real yields rise. Bull case: dovish hold narrative and ETF flows could squeeze to $82.5k+. Invalidation: close below $76,000 or above $83,500 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects live price $80,600 dated Sep 18 after baseline with corroborating $78,036 Convex same day and $77,400 CoinDesk Sep 17, but post-Fed volatility elevated. Labeling live because quotes are same-day after window start.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from MarketWatch (CoinDesk index ~$79,965), Yahoo Finance (~$78,013), GuruFocus ($79,246), OKX (~$80,383) and others place BTC near $78k-$80.5k on 2026-09-18 with a ~2-4.5% daily gain after prior-session closes near $76.4k. Day range has extended from lows near $76.2k to highs near $80.4k.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term bounce within a broader multi-month downtrend from the 2025 all-time high near $126k. Price sits well below the 2026 peak levels and shows mixed daily closes around the mid-$70k to low-$80k zone with elevated but not extreme volume.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the observed $79.5k midpoint. Recent 24-hour realized moves of 3-5% and the day’s high/low band support a one-day envelope of roughly ±3-4% around the quote, producing the $76.8k-$82.2k interval. The range is modestly skewed upward to reflect the ongoing rebound while leaving room for a fade of the morning gains.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major scheduled crypto-specific events identified in the immediate 24-hour window. Macro spillover from the recent Fed rate decision and oil/Treasury yield moves remains the primary external driver; weekend liquidity thinning is typical.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A decisive break below the recent $76k support cluster would invalidate the mild short-term bias and open a deeper retest of the mid-$70k area. Conversely, a sustained push through $82k on rising volume would strengthen the rebound case beyond the neutral 1-day stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest at 42% because the 1-day window is dominated by noise relative to the larger downtrend, sources show quote dispersion of several thousand dollars, and no high-conviction catalyst is present to override the mixed technical picture.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data showing Bitcoin trading near $77,719 as of 14:33 UTC on September 18, 2026, referencing recent coverage from The Economic Times.
(2) Market regime: The market is in a cautious recovery and consolidation phase following a highly volatile week marked by the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target range and the failure of the crypto-focused CLARITY Act in the Senate. Despite significant ETF outflows, Bitcoin is demonstrating notable resilience, indicating robust underlying spot demand.
(3) Price range justification: I project a 24-hour range of $76,000-$80,000. Immediate support has stabilized around the $76,000 to $76,100 zone, as dip-buyers continue to defend lower levels. However, overhead resistance sits near the $79,500 to $80,000 psychological barrier as the market digests a "higher for longer" monetary policy environment.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Over the next 24 hours, price action will primarily be driven by weekend positioning, the ongoing digestion of the Fed's revised dot plot, and the battle between institutional ETF outflows and retail spot buying.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The strongest risk to this resilient recovery is the ongoing weakness in ETF demand. If the heavy ETF outflows observed over the past two days accelerate, they could easily overwhelm spot buyers, driving a structural breakdown back below the $76,000 support level.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 65%. While Bitcoin's ability to hold ground in the face of a hawkish central bank and legislative setbacks is a clear structural positive, the macroeconomic backdrop remains inherently restrictive, making short-term whipsaw volatility highly probable.
DeepSeek V3
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Market snapshot: I found BTC trading around $77,800 at the window start, based on quotes from Yahoo Finance ($77,991 at 7:25 a.m. ET), Fortune ($77,979 at 8 a.m. ET), and Marketscreener ($77,966 at 12:29 UTC). The intraday low was $76,205, and the high was near $78,460. Sources include Moneycontrol, Yahoo Finance, Fortune, and PrimeXBT.
(2) Market regime: Bitcoin is in a short-term recovery after the CLARITY Act failure and the Fed's rate hike pushed it to a low near $75,900. ETF flows turned positive on Sept 17 with a $159.5 million inflow, and the Fear & Greed index is 57 (Greed). However, the broader trend remains down, with BTC still 31.5% lower year-over-year.
(3) Price range: Using an ATR of ~$1,830 and key levels, I see support at $76,000-$76,400 and resistance at $78,000-$79,500. The Bollinger Bands span $75,138-$80,864, but for a one-day horizon I expect a narrower range of $76,000-$79,500.
(4) Catalysts: No major scheduled events in the next 24 hours. The BOJ rate hike and Fed decision are passed, and the CLARITY Act failure is priced in. Potential catalysts include ETF flow updates or unexpected regulatory news, but none are scheduled.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that the recovery is unconvincing, with taker sell volume dominating (buy/sell ratio 0.66) and price below the 20-day SMA at $78,001. A break below $76,000 would invalidate the bullish case and could lead to a retest of $75,000.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 62% because the direction is uncertain. Momentum is flat (MACD histogram at zero), and price is caught between support and resistance. A neutral outcome is nearly as likely as a directional move.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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