Excluded from performance statistics: the forecast was created after its scoring window began (look-ahead bias). Historical results below are retained for audit only.
Asked Sep 7, 2:10 AM EDT (market closed). DeepSeek R1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, GPT-5.6 Sol, Grok 4.5, Muse Spark 1.1 and Kimi answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-08 (1 trading session). Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek R1 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 1.09% | -0.55% | 1.64% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.09% | -0.55% | -0.54% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.76% | -0.55% | 1.31% |
| Grok 4.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.14% | -0.55% | 0.41% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.20% | -0.55% | 0.75% |
| Kimi | 4/5 | 80.00% | 1.89% | -0.55% | 2.44% |
DeepSeek R1
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Markets closed Monday for Labor Day, leaving a four-day trading week. Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report (162K jobs added vs. 56K expected) has reignited September Fed rate-hike fears, pressuring the broader S&P 500 which closed down 0.38% at 7,718.60 on Sept 4. However, the semiconductor sector bucked the trend, surging 3.37% amid the OpenAI GPT-6 Astra launch, which has revived the AI hardware trade. The market is now hyper-focused on Wednesday's 10-year Treasury auction and Friday's critical CPI report. With liquidity thinner due to the holiday, volatility could be amplified.
- AMD — confidence 82.0000%. **Thesis**: AMD is a primary beneficiary of the AI hardware rotation, surging 4.69% to $477.57 on Sept 4 as the semiconductor sector rose 3.37%. The company's Q2 revenue grew 50% YoY to $11.54B, and with OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra driving new compute demand, the AI chip narrative remains strong. Technical momentum favors continued outperformance. **Risks**: Elevated valuation (~45x P/E); strong CPI data could pressure high-beta semis; profit-taking after a >4% single-day gain.
Return: 5.90%; alpha: 6.45%. - MU — confidence 80.0000%. **Thesis**: Micron was the standout performer in the memory sector, surging 6.1% on Sept 4 to $1,016.59. Pre-market data shows continued strength, with MU rising over 6% to a new all-time high above $1,125. The HBM4 expansion and memory shortage narrative are fully validated, and the DRAM ETF broke out on Friday with targets pointing higher. **Risks**: Cyclical memory exposure; potential profit-taking after a strong run; macro demand slowdown could reverse the cycle.
Return: -1.61%; alpha: -1.06%. - NVDA — confidence 78.0000%. **Thesis**: Nvidia closed at $230.36 on Sept 4, up 0.84%, and is trading just ~1.5% below its all-time high. The company's $12.9B acquisition of Hugging Face reinforces the 'compute + ecosystem' narrative. CEO Jensen Huang's declaration that AGI has arrived, coupled with the GPT-6 Astra launch, positions NVDA as the ultimate AI bellwether. **Risks**: Director insider selling (~$411M); high multiple vulnerability to rising rates; pre-market data shows some weakness (-0.26%).
Return: -2.01%; alpha: -1.46%. - ORCL — confidence 75.0000%. **Thesis**: Oracle is the only major tech earnings this week, reporting Tuesday after the close. The stock is up 3.08% to $158.78 as of Sept 4, with a 5.5% gain recently on AI/cloud optimism. The market will scrutinize cloud infrastructure and AI-related revenue for signs of corporate spending resilience. A strong report could set a positive tone for tech, while the earnings release in a holiday-shortened week could amplify any beat. **Risks**: High event risk; a miss could reinforce IT budget tightening fears; valuation pressure from rising yields.
Return: 2.36%; alpha: 2.90%. - MRVL — confidence 72.0000%. **Thesis**: Marvell Technology surged over 7% on Sept 4 as a leader in the optical communications and AI semiconductor space. Pre-market data shows MRVL gaining 4.8%, indicating sustained momentum. The company is a direct beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout, and the sector rotation into hardware plays continues to favor MRVL. **Risks**: High beta to semis; potential volatility if CPI surprises to the upside; profit-taking after a strong run.
Return: 0.83%; alpha: 1.38%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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U.S. markets are entering the abbreviated trading week following the Labor Day holiday with a focus on upcoming macroeconomic data and ongoing momentum in mega-cap technology and artificial intelligence leaders.
- NVDA — confidence 75.0000%. Thesis: Nvidia continues to demonstrate strong relative strength and dominant market positioning in AI infrastructure, supported by structural tailwinds and robust institutional buying. Risks: High valuation and susceptibility to broad market pullbacks if risk-off sentiment emerges.
Return: -2.01%; alpha: -1.46%. - AAPL — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: Apple offers defensive characteristics with a strong balance sheet while benefiting from anticipated hardware upgrades and AI integration in its upcoming product cycle. Risks: Potential weakness in consumer discretionary spending and supply chain disruptions.
Return: -1.17%; alpha: -0.62%. - META — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Anticipation of positive product announcements at the upcoming Meta Connect event, alongside strong digital advertising momentum, provides a solid catalyst for short-term outperformance. Risks: Regulatory scrutiny and high capital expenditures related to its AI and metaverse investments.
Return: -0.53%; alpha: 0.02%. - MSFT — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: Microsoft's sticky enterprise software ecosystem and continued cloud growth anchor steady capital inflows, providing a reliable growth profile amidst economic uncertainty. Risks: Elevated expectations regarding AI monetization and potential deceleration in enterprise software spending.
Return: -1.15%; alpha: -0.60%. - AMZN — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: Continued acceleration in AWS cloud services and a resilient e-commerce business model position Amazon well to capture both enterprise and consumer spending. Risks: Margin pressures from infrastructure scaling and sensitivity to consumer retail trends.
Return: -0.60%; alpha: -0.05%.
GPT-5.6 Sol
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Semiconductors and AI-memory remain the clearest relative-strength theme for the September 8 session. On September 4, the S&P 500 fell about 0.4% after stronger-than-expected payrolls increased expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy, yet the PHLX Semiconductor Index gained more than 3%. That divergence suggests genuine sector rotation rather than simple broad-market beta. The three-day Labor Day break, elevated Treasury yields, geopolitical risk and the possibility of mean reversion after Friday's large chip gains reduce conviction. Sources: Reuters, AP, Barron's and Investopedia.
- SOXL — confidence 71.0000%. Thesis: SOXL is the highest-beta expression of the strongest observable relative-strength theme. Semiconductor stocks gained roughly 3% to 3.4% on September 4 while the S&P 500 declined about 0.4%, with broad participation across chip names despite an unfavorable rates backdrop. If semiconductor leadership persists for one additional session, SOXL's 3x daily exposure can translate modest sector outperformance into substantial excess return versus SPY. Risks: Friday's chip rally was already unusually strong, so post-holiday profit-taking or a reversal caused by higher yields, geopolitical developments or weaker AI sentiment would be magnified by SOXL's leverage. Sources: Reuters, Barron's and MarketWatch.
Return: 5.11%; alpha: 5.66%. - MU — confidence 69.0000%. Thesis: Micron combines strong relative momentum with a durable AI-memory demand narrative. Barron's reported that MU rose about 6.1% on September 4 and approximately 9% for the week as memory-related equities led the semiconductor sector. AI accelerator deployments continue to support demand for high-bandwidth memory, providing a fundamental explanation for the relative-strength move. MU's Friday advance was also less extreme than SanDisk's, giving it a somewhat better continuation-versus-exhaustion balance. Risks: rising Treasury yields, valuation compression, memory-sector profit-taking or a broad reversal in Friday's semiconductor rotation could produce underperformance. Sources: Barron's, Investopedia and MarketWatch.
Return: -1.61%; alpha: -1.06%. - SNDK — confidence 67.0000%. Thesis: SanDisk was one of the strongest expressions of Friday's memory and storage rotation, gaining roughly 12% and ranking among the S&P 500's largest gainers. The simultaneous strength in Micron, Western Digital and Seagate indicates that the move was supported by an industry-wide theme rather than being entirely company-specific. Continued institutional rotation toward AI-linked storage and memory could extend SNDK's relative momentum on September 8. Risks: a roughly 12% one-session advance creates substantial mean-reversion and profit-taking risk, and the absence of a similarly large new company-specific catalyst makes continuation dependent heavily on sector sentiment. Sources: Investopedia, Barron's and Investor's Business Daily.
Return: -0.12%; alpha: 0.43%. - NVDA — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: Nvidia provides a higher-quality and less extreme expression of semiconductor leadership. Barron's reported NVDA trading close to its record high during Friday's chip rally, while its dominant AI-accelerator position continues to make it a major beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending. Its recent acquisition activity also reinforces the strategy of expanding beyond chips into the broader AI software and platform ecosystem. Risks: NVDA's very large weight in SPY makes substantial benchmark-relative outperformance harder than for smaller semiconductor names, while elevated expectations, higher bond yields and any reversal in AI-sector momentum remain important risks. Sources: Barron's, AP and Investor's Business Daily.
Return: -2.01%; alpha: -1.46%. - IONQ — confidence 63.0000%. Thesis: IONQ has a catalyst precisely inside the measurement session. IonQ's official investor-relations calendar schedules Investor Day for September 8 at 12:30 PM ET, leaving approximately three and a half hours for new information to affect the regular-session closing price used by this experiment. Discussion of the company's quantum-computing roadmap, acquisitions, integration plans and commercialization outlook could create stock-specific relative performance independent of SPY. Risks: event expectations may already be reflected in the share price, management commentary could disappoint, and IONQ is a volatile speculative-growth equity that remains sensitive to higher Treasury yields. Source: IonQ Investor Relations.
Return: 2.40%; alpha: 2.95%.
Grok 4.5
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Post-Labor Day session opens against a backdrop of elevated Treasury yields after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report, persistent Middle East oil volatility supporting energy, and selective AI/tech resilience. Apple’s high-profile product event on September 9 creates pre-positioning flows, while PPI and CPI later in the week keep macro sensitivity high. Expect a mixed tape with potential relative strength in energy and event-driven names versus broad SPY beta.
- AAPL — confidence 66.0000%. Pre-event positioning into the September 9 keynote under new CEO leadership, expected to showcase the foldable iPhone Ultra alongside iPhone 18 Pro models. Historical tendency for constructive flows into Apple hardware events can support relative outperformance even if some analysts flag pricing or margin risks. Risks: any early skepticism on foldable pricing, volumes, or margin pressure could reverse gains; high beta to broader tech and yields.
Return: -1.17%; alpha: -0.62%. - NVDA — confidence 63.0000%. Sustained AI infrastructure demand and leadership positioning keep Nvidia as a core relative-strength candidate versus the broader index. Recent data-center commentary and ecosystem activity continue to underpin sentiment. Risks: elevated valuation leaves the stock vulnerable to any hawkish rate or inflation signals; single-day swings can be large on macro headlines.
Return: -2.01%; alpha: -1.46%. - XLE — confidence 61.0000%. Energy has shown clear recent leadership on Middle East supply concerns and crude strength; the sector ETF offers concentrated exposure to integrated majors and related names that have outperformed SPY on geopolitical catalysts. Risks: rapid de-escalation headlines or a broad risk-off move could pressure oil-linked assets; concentration risk in a handful of large holdings.
Return: 1.11%; alpha: 1.66%. - MU — confidence 57.0000%. Memory demand tied to AI accelerators remains structurally tight, supporting episodic outperformance in the semiconductor complex. Positive guidance trends and customer commitments provide a fundamental tailwind for relative strength. Risks: cyclical memory pricing volatility and sensitivity to any AI-capex skepticism or rising yields.
Return: -1.61%; alpha: -1.06%. - AVGO — confidence 54.0000%. Custom silicon and networking exposure continues to benefit from hyperscaler AI spending, offering diversified semiconductor upside beyond pure GPU names. Management commentary on multi-year AI revenue growth supports constructive positioning. Risks: valuation and any slowdown signals in custom ASIC demand; broader semi beta to rates and risk sentiment.
Return: 2.98%; alpha: 3.53%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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S&P 500 closed Sept 5 at 7718 off 1% from 7798 high Aug 13, Labor Day closure Sept 8 is Monday so next session is Tuesday Sept 8. Market regime neutral with Fed 94% priced for 25bp cut, Apple iPhone 17 event Sept 9 and Oracle earnings Sept 10 driving mega-cap AI momentum into first session after holiday.
- NVDA — confidence 78.0000%. Thesis: Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for $13B Sept 3, owning open-weight AI town square and countering OpenAI. Fell 1.9% Friday despite news, creating mean-reversion setup. Oracle capex guide $90-95B FY27 vs $56B FY26 is direct GPU demand. Risk: High beta, 29x PE, yield spike hurts growth.
Return: -2.01%; alpha: -1.46%. - AAPL — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: Apple confirmed Sept 9 10am PT Awe Dropping event for iPhone 17 Air and AirPods Pro 3. Next session is T-1 day, historically sees accumulation outperforming SPY. Jostling with NVDA for most valuable company adds headline momentum. Risk: Sell-the-news post-event and AI feature disappointment.
Return: -1.17%; alpha: -0.62%. - ORCL — confidence 69.0000%. Thesis: Oracle set Q1 FY27 earnings Sept 10 after close, expected $1.72 EPS +17% YoY. Pre-earnings drift typically bullish in AI infrastructure tape, with strong backlog commentary expected. Risk: Low 14% margin on Nvidia rental business versus 70% software margin raises profitability questions.
Return: 2.36%; alpha: 2.90%. - AVGO — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: Broadcom Q3 reported Sept 4 with record AI revenue, custom ASIC and networking leader benefits from Hugging Face open model ecosystem. Relative strength vs SOX and VMware integration leverage. Risk: Overbought after strong YTD run and high expectations.
Return: 2.98%; alpha: 3.53%. - MSFT — confidence 62.0000%. Thesis: Microsoft as defensive AI mega-cap with Azure-Oracle interconnect and OpenAI stake benefits from both closed and open model worlds. Safe haven in seasonally weak September where SPY historically averages -0.8%. Fed dovishness supports long-duration cash flows. Risk: Lower beta limits relative outperformance vs SPY.
Return: -1.15%; alpha: -0.60%.
Kimi
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Hawkish Fed pivot with September rate-hike probability near 63% following a robust August jobs report; Treasury yields are elevated and September seasonal headwinds persist. Energy and AI-infrastructure names with discrete, session-specific catalysts are favored over the broad index.
- XLE — confidence 85.0000%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR is the clearest macro beneficiary of the current regime. WTI crude sits near $90.50 with Iran supply disruptions ongoing, and the Fed is leaning toward a 25bp hike driven partly by energy-led inflation. XLE returned 45% year-to-date and was the top-performing S&P 500 sector in August (+7.4%). In a rising-rate, inflationary environment, energy historically outperforms the broad index. Risk: oil prices could gap lower on de-escalation headlines, and the sector is extended after a strong run.
Return: 1.11%; alpha: 1.66%. - BIDU — confidence 80.0000%. Baidu's Class A ordinary shares are being included in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program effective September 7, 2026. Because U.S. markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, Tuesday, September 8, is the first regular session that can price this liquidity catalyst. The inclusion allows mainland Chinese investors to trade Baidu directly for the first time, which should enhance demand. The stock already moved +2.44% on Friday on the announcement. Risk: Chinese regulatory overhang and U.S.-China geopolitical tensions could cap upside, and actual Stock Connect flows may be smaller than anticipated.
Return: -6.96%; alpha: -6.41%. - STRL — confidence 78.0000%. Sterling Infrastructure carries powerful post-earnings momentum heading into Tuesday. The company reported second-quarter revenue growth of 90.4%, raised full-year 2026 guidance to $4.0–$4.15 billion (from $3.70–$3.80 billion), and signed backlog surged 116% year-over-year to $4.3 billion. Data center and semiconductor facility construction demand is accelerating, and the stock gained 3.8% on Friday. Zacks currently ranks it #1 (Strong Buy). For the first session after a holiday weekend, this momentum should carry. Risk: valuation has expanded rapidly and profit-taking after a multi-month rally could temper gains.
Return: 3.23%; alpha: 3.78%. - SMTC — confidence 75.0000%. Semtech Corporation surged 3.3% on Friday after reporting record second-quarter fiscal 2027 results and a bullish third-quarter outlook that far exceeded analyst expectations. The rally is driven by robust demand for AI-related data center products and the company's strategic decision to divest its lower-margin cellular module business to focus on high-growth connectivity segments. Multiple analyst upgrades and price target increases followed the report. Risk: some analysts have flagged valuation concerns after the sharp run-up, and broader semiconductor sector weakness from rate fears could offset the company-specific catalyst.
Return: 9.96%; alpha: 10.51%. - WDC — confidence 72.0000%. Western Digital gained 2.16% on Friday after Barclays raised its price target to $620 from $450 while maintaining an Overweight rating. The stock is also benefiting from reports that its hard-disk-drive capacity is fully committed through 2026, reflecting strong AI-driven data center demand and expanding profit margins. This supply constraint supports pricing power and revenue visibility. Risk: the stock has already appreciated significantly year-to-date, and any broad tech selloff tied to Fed hawkishness could dampen the analyst-upgrade momentum.
Return: 2.10%; alpha: 2.65%.
How models have done in AI Picked
No eligible settled runs are available at this horizon up to and including this forecast, so there is no overall statistics chart to show. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. Later runs are not included in this historical snapshot. Original results remain available for audit.
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 319.97000000 | 316.22000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AMD | 477.57000000 | 505.74000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/ | |
| AMZN | 258.51000000 | 256.97000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/ | |
| AVGO | 357.90000000 | 368.56000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/ | |
| BIDU | 99.47000000 | 92.55000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIDU/history/ | |
| IONQ | 39.52000000 | 40.47000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IONQ/history/ | |
| META | 616.77000000 | 613.48000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history/ | |
| MRVL | 223.55000000 | 225.41000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRVL/history/ | |
| MSFT | 499.70000000 | 493.95000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| MU | 1016.59000000 | 1000.26000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NVDA | 230.36000000 | 225.73000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| ORCL | 158.78000000 | 162.52000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/history/ | |
| SMTC | 147.89000000 | 162.62000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMTC/history/ | |
| SNDK | 1740.00000000 | 1737.99000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNDK/history/ | |
| SOXL | 117.28000000 | 123.27000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/ | |
| SPY | 770.19000000 | 765.96000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| STRL | 486.49000000 | 502.20000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STRL/history/ | |
| WDC | 467.46000000 | 477.30000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDC/history/ | |
| XLE | 64.06000000 | 64.77000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v4, SHA-256 d370089b78c6798104ff341222866a806382285edb387b5f005b74ec0c78eebb. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.