This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-10 15:17 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-11 15:17 UTC, when IONQ closed at $37.92, down 0.3% from $38.05 when the forecast was made. It traded between $36.33 and $38.34 along the way (-4.5% to +0.8%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-10 15:17 UTC (9/10/2026, 11:17:50 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-11 15:17 UTC (9/11/2026, 11:17:50 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-11 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
Want to forecast IONQ -- or any other stock or ETF -- with your own model and see how it stacks up against these? Create your own AI model benchmark on ForecastNest.
5 of the 6 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Grok 4.5 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $35.50–$40.50 | -6.9% to +6.2% | 76% | $38.14 | 82.0 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $36.50–$39.50 | -4.0% to +3.9% | 58% | $38.02 | 52.3 | no call |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | $36.50–$39.50 | -4.0% to +3.8% | 70% | $38.04 | 81.2 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $35.50–$39.80 | -5.6% to +5.9% | 42% | $37.60 | 25.5 | wrong |
| Deepseek | $35.50–$41.50 | -6.9% to +8.8% | 58% | $38.14 | 49.2 | wrong |
| claude-opus-5 | $35.10–$40.10 | -7.7% to +5.5% | 46% | $38.02 | 79.8 | right |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-10 15:17 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 9 | — | 2 | 5 · 5 right | 2 · 1 right | 86% (6/7) |
| Grok 4.5 | 9 | — | 1 | 7 · 4 right | 1 · 0 right | 50% (4/8) |
| Deepseek | 9 | — | 0 | 7 · 4 right | 2 · 0 right | 44% (4/9) |
| claude-opus-5 | 9 | — | 1 | — | 8 · 3 right | 38% (3/8) |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | 8 | — | 2 | 3 · 1 right | 3 · 1 right | 33% (2/6) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2 | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-10 15:17 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Price and data: Investing.com reported IONQ at $38.14 during the September 10 session, down 5.76%, with an intraday range of $38.10-$39.92 and a market capitalization around $15.15 billion. The prior September 8 close was $40.47 after an event-day high of $44.43, so the post-Investor-Day reversal has continued rather than stabilized. Because the retrieved quote is dated September 10 and was obtained after the requested 15:17 UTC window start, I classify data access as live. Sources: Investing.com current quote and historical data.
(2) Market regime: The immediate regime is bearish for high-duration speculative technology. Reuters reported the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower on September 10 as the 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.92% and producer inflation remained elevated; August PPI rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year. IONQ's own technical picture also weakened: Investing.com's September 10 technical summary was Strong Sell, with RSI around 42, negative MACD, negative rate-of-change and all tracked moving averages signaling weakness, although Stochastic and Williams %R were already deeply oversold. Sources: Reuters and Investing.com technical analysis.
(3) Price range: I estimate $35.50-$40.50 over the next day from the $38.14 reference. Recent price history provides support around the September 2-3 region near $36.8-$37.8, but the combination of event-day distribution, elevated volatility and broad growth-stock pressure allows for an extension toward approximately $35.50. On the upside, $39.50-$40.50 is the first significant recovery zone because it overlaps the September 8-9 trading area and the former $40.47 event-session close. The range is intentionally skewed downward because price momentum and the rates backdrop currently outweigh the oversold condition. Sources: Investing.com and StockAnalysis historical data.
(4) Catalysts: The major IonQ-specific announcements occurred September 8 and are still being digested. IonQ raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450-$460 million after incorporating SkyWater, introduced the Superion 256 sixth-generation platform with customer deliveries planned for 2027, and announced an $8.18 million quantum-security agreement with Congruity360. Barron's also reported growing institutional attention to quantum computing after the U.S. government awarded $100 million R&D packages to several other quantum companies. Inside the next day, however, the dominant scheduled macro catalyst is September 11 CPI, so rate expectations may remain more important than additional IonQ company news. Sources: IonQ Investor Relations, SEC filings, Barron's and Reuters.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish counter-argument is that IONQ is becoming technically oversold just as its fundamental narrative has improved substantially. Revenue guidance increased sharply after SkyWater, Superion provides a clearer manufacturing roadmap, and broader government support is validating quantum computing as a strategic industry. A sustained recovery above roughly $40.50 would weaken the immediate bearish interpretation. Conversely, failure to defend the recent $37-$38 region while Treasury yields remain near 5% would confirm that post-event selling pressure is still dominant. Sources: IonQ Investor Relations, Barron's, Investing.com and Reuters.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 76%. I assign MILD BEARISH rather than BEARISH because IONQ has already declined sharply from the September 8 intraday high, several oscillators are oversold and positive company-specific fundamentals create rebound risk. Nevertheless, the failed Investor Day breakout, consecutive weakness, negative technical momentum, high realized volatility and an unfavorable interest-rate environment make further downside or continued underperformance more probable than a sustained recovery over the next day. The 7d signal is NEUTRAL because post-event price discovery can reverse quickly, while the 30d signal remains MILD BULLISH because the SkyWater integration, higher revenue outlook and Superion roadmap strengthen the longer-term operating narrative.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: IONQ current $38.02 open $37.29 high $38.17 low $36.84 previous close $38.14 Sep 9 per Finnhub quote, Robinhood snapshot $38.31 intraday range $38.03-$40.07 Sep 10. Investor day Sep 8 raised 2026 revenue outlook to $450-460M including SkyWater foundry acquisition closed July 31, per Business Wire Sep 8 6:30am and Motley Fool Sep 8 report. Market cap $15.45B, 52-week high $84.64 low $25.89, beta 3.34. 5-day -0.64% after +2.4% Sep 8 close at $40.47.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum basket under pressure Sep 9-10 with RGTI, QBTS down 8-8.6% per Barchart Aug 19 divergence note. Overall tech risk-on into ORCL Sep 10 after close $638B RPO and ADBE earnings supports semis but IONQ lagging after investor day pop faded from $40.47 to $38.14. High beta means moves amplified vs SPY $765.88. Regime is choppy consolidation below $40 resistance, above $36.80 support.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $38.02 live. Using intraday range $36.84-$38.17 and ATR ~ $2.5 given beta 3.34 and 5-day volatility. For 1-day window, expect $36.50 lower bound near Sep 10 low $36.84 and $39.50 upper bound near Sep 10 high $40.07 minus fade. More room below than above reflects mild bearish tilt after guidance includes non-quantum foundry revenue ~$440M at 4x sales per Motley Fool analysis, quality concern.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings inside 1-day window; next earnings Nov 4 per Barchart. Inside window is regular session Sep 10 plus ORCL after close at 20:00 UTC which could lift quantum sympathy but also risk-off if ORCL misses $1.74 $19.13B consensus. No IONQ-specific filings scheduled. Likely catalyst is options expiry positioning and continued digestion of SkyWater integration.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case is investor day $70 Northland target, foundry vertical integration de-risks supply, quantum security deal announced Sep 8 supports $450-460M guide. If ORCL beats and AI capex optimism spills to quantum, IONQ could reclaim $40.47 Sep 8 close and push to $41. Invalidates mild bearish if closes above $39.50 on volume >9.7M avg per MarketBeat.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% reflects live price access but limited directional edge over 1 day. Finnhub and Robinhood give current dated Sep 10, so data_access live, but 1-day noise high for beta 3.3 stock down 15.27% YTD. Neutral to mild bearish is honest abstention from strong call. Range width $3.00 reflects ~7.9% range consistent with recent 9% expected move for GME and 5-6% moves for AVAV and COO Sep 9.
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: IonQ (IONQ) is trading at $38.04 as of mid-morning on September 10, 2026, according to live financial data. The stock is currently digesting recent volatility after surging to close at $40.47 on Tuesday following a major Investor Day, then pulling back to the $38 level over the subsequent sessions.
(2) The current market regime: The quantum computing sector remains highly speculative but is showing signs of commercial maturation. IonQ is currently transitioning into a commercial foundry model following its recent acquisition of SkyWater, which has brought significant fundamental attention but also elevated near-term volatility as traders digest the integration.
(3) Price range justification: The projected range of $36.50-$39.50 reflects a near-term cooling phase after a major news event. The stock experienced heavy profit-taking following its initial Investor Day surge, establishing immediate resistance around $39.50 and a near-term support floor in the mid-$36s where pre-event accumulation occurred.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts: Having just passed its highly anticipated Investor Day on September 8, the immediate calendar is largely clear of scheduled corporate events. Price action over the next 24 hours will likely be driven by delayed Wall Street analyst notes, projected level adjustments, and broader technology sector momentum.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument to a neutral stabilization thesis is IonQ's deep unprofitability and rich valuation. Despite raising 2026 revenue guidance to $450-$460 million, the company continues to report substantial negative free cash flow, leaving it highly vulnerable to a deeper selloff if the broader market abruptly adopts a risk-off posture.
(6) Confidence assessment: A 70% confidence level is applied because the recent extreme volatility has largely exhausted immediate directional momentum. Without fresh institutional catalysts over a short 1-day window, the stock is statistically likely to consolidate within this established range.
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found: Live quotes around the window start show IONQ trading near $37.50-$37.90, down roughly 1-2% on the session after closing at $38.14 on September 9. Recent news centers on the September 8 Investor Day, Superion 256 platform launch, raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450-460 million following the SkyWater acquisition, and a quantum-security agreement.
(2) Market regime: The stock is in a short-term pullback after a volatile multi-day decline from levels near $40-$44 earlier in the week. Broader market caution around oil and yields is adding pressure to high-beta growth names, while quantum-sector narrative remains intact on the longer horizon.
(3) Price range: Anchored to the ~$37.60 quote, the one-day range of $35.50-$39.80 reflects typical IONQ volatility of several percent. More room is left below given the recent downtrend and mild bearish short-term signals; upside is capped by resistance near the prior-session close and recent highs.
(4) Catalysts: No major scheduled earnings inside the 1-day window. Residual digestion of the September 8 Investor Day announcements and any follow-on commentary on the Superion roadmap or SkyWater integration could influence price, but the primary driver is likely broader risk sentiment.
(5) Counter-argument: A sharp rebound in risk appetite or positive quantum-sector news flow could push the stock back toward $39-$40 and invalidate the mild downside bias. Conversely, continued high-beta selling or disappointing technical follow-through would support the lower end of the range.
(6) Confidence: 42% reflects the high volatility of IONQ, the mixed short- versus longer-term signals, and the dominance of market-wide factors over company-specific news in a one-day window. Direction is only mildly expressed.
Deepseek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery and sources: As of the September 10, 2026 window start, IONQ is trading at approximately $38.14, based on the September 9 close reported by Yahoo Finance, Stock Analysis, and CNBC. The stock closed the regular session at $38.14, down 5.76% from the previous close of $40.47, after trading in a range of $38.10 to $39.92. In after-hours trading, the stock recovered modestly to around $38.27-$38.30. The 52-week range is $25.89 to $84.64, and the market capitalization is approximately $15.45 billion.
(2) Current market regime: IONQ is in a corrective phase following a sharp run-up. The stock rallied from approximately $34.93 on September 4 to $40.47 on September 8, a gain of nearly 16% in two sessions, driven by the SkyWater acquisition, raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450-$460 million, and the unveiling of the Superion 256 platform. However, the rally stalled on September 9, with the stock falling 5.76% as Mizuho cut its projected level to $52 from $61 and analysts digested the dilutive impact of the SkyWater deal. The broader quantum computing sector remains supported by $300 million in U.S. government CHIPS Act funding awarded to Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantinuum, but IONQ did not directly receive this funding, creating a relative disadvantage. Institutional ownership is 41.42%, with recent net selling by insiders ($9.4 million sold versus $0.2 million purchased over the past 12 months).
(3) Price range justification: The 1-day forecast range of $35.50-$41.50 represents a ±7.9% band around the current price, consistent with IONQ's elevated volatility (beta of 2.72 and 30-day implied volatility near 70%). The lower bound of $35.50 is anchored to the pre-rally consolidation zone from early September and the key support level of $36.90 identified by technicians. A break below $36.90 would signal a loss of the recent breakout momentum and could accelerate selling toward the $34-$35 area. The upper bound of $41.50 is just below the VWAP at approximately $41.74, which has acted as resistance since the September 8 rally. The range is asymmetric with more room below than above, reflecting the bearish near-term momentum and the stock's failure to hold above $40.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The immediate 24-hour window is light on company-specific events. The next major catalyst is the Q3 2026 earnings report, estimated for November 4, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance. However, broader sector developments remain relevant: the U.S. Department of Commerce finalized $100 million CHIPS Act awards to Rigetti and D-Wave (with equity stakes), which could continue to drive sector sentiment. Additionally, the September 8 Investor Day introduced the Superion 256 platform and an $1.8 billion deal, which the market is still digesting. Any follow-up analyst commentary or institutional positioning ahead of the November earnings could influence the stock. The PPI report on September 10 and the ECB decision may also affect broader risk appetite.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The most compelling bullish case is that the SkyWater acquisition transforms IONQ into a vertically integrated quantum platform with foundry capabilities, and the raised revenue guidance (from $280-$290 million to $450-$460 million) is a structural improvement that the market has not fully priced in. The stock's consensus analyst rating remains 'Strong Buy' with an average projected level of $67.68, implying 77% upside from current levels. If IONQ reclaims the $41.74 VWAP and breaks above $42, it would signal that buyers have regained control and could target $46.10. Conversely, my mildly bearish view would be invalidated by a strong close above $42 on above-average volume. The bearish case would be confirmed by a break below $36.90 on high volume, opening the door to a retest of $34-$35.
(6) Confidence assessment: Confidence is 58%, reflecting a balanced but slightly bearish near-term bias. The stock is in a corrective phase after a sharp run-up, and the failure to hold above $40 on September 9 suggests that sellers remain in control. The analyst projected level cut from Mizuho and the lack of direct CHIPS Act funding for IONQ are near-term negatives. However, the strong fundamental outlook, high short interest (10.63% of float), and the potential for a short squeeze if the stock reclaims key levels limit downside conviction. The 1-day horizon is inherently noisy, and the absence of immediate catalysts within the window tempers confidence. The range accounts for this two-sided risk while leaning modestly bearish.
claude-opus-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: IONQ was quoted at $38.02 at 11:07am EDT on September 10, down 0.31% against a $38.14 previous close, in a day range of $36.84 to $38.07 on 7.28M shares, with a market capitalisation of $15.11B (stockanalysis.com). That quote is ten minutes ahead of this 15:17 UTC baseline, so it is the anchor. The stock has fallen meaningfully across two sessions - from $40.47 on September 8 to $38.14 on September 9, a drop that 247wallst.com attributed directly to climbing rate-hike odds, with Rigetti and D-Wave pulling back alongside it. Today it has recovered off the $36.84 low and currently trades near the top of its intraday range.
(2) Current market regime: openly hostile to long-duration, pre-profit equities, and quantum is the purest expression of that cohort. August PPI released this morning rose 0.4% month over month, matching expectations, but the year-over-year rate accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8% in July, exceeding forecasts, with surging energy costs identified as the driver (CNBC, TheStreet). The tape responded with the S&P 500 down 0.59%, the Nasdaq down 0.97% and the Russell 2000 down 1.32% - the pattern where the highest-beta, smallest, least-profitable names take the most damage. Treasury yields remain elevated near 52-week highs with rate-hike concerns building into the September 16 FOMC, and Brent trades at $102.10 after US strikes on Iranian tankers and an Iranian missile attack on a US Navy warship. A company valued at $15.11B on guided revenue in the hundreds of millions is discounted almost entirely off the long end of the curve.
(3) Price range justification: from the $38.02 anchor, IONQ's realised daily standard deviation has been running near 5%, but this window contains a binary macro event, so I am sizing off roughly 7 to 8%. That produces $35.10 to $40.10 - about 7.7% of room below versus 5.5% above. The downward skew is deliberate and reflects the asymmetry rather than a conviction call on magnitude: a hot inflation print hits a pre-profit long-duration name disproportionately, while a benign print mostly returns the stock toward the $40.47 September 8 close it has already lost. The upper bound sits below that level for exactly that reason.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: the decisive one is August CPI at 8:30am ET on September 11, which falls inside this window along with roughly the first hour and three quarters of Friday's regular session, plus University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00am ET. Given that PPI just accelerated on energy costs and crude sits above $102, a firm CPI is the base case rather than the tail. There is no IonQ-specific event scheduled: the September 8 investor day has passed, and the next company milestone is Q3 results in November. Sympathy moves from Rigetti and D-Wave remain the main idiosyncratic wildcard, since these names still trade as one correlated basket.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: the fundamentals moved decisively in the company's favour two days ago and I am forecasting against that. At its September 8 investor day IonQ raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450-460 million from a prior midpoint near $285 million following completion of the SkyWater Technology acquisition on July 31, and signed an $8.18 million quantum-security agreement with Congruity360, with Q2 revenue of roughly $80 million described as about double all other quantum peers combined (Motley Fool). The stock has also already absorbed a two-session decline and bounced off $36.84 today, which is the behaviour of a name finding support rather than breaking. My call is invalidated if CPI prints at or below consensus and hike odds retreat, or if IONQ closes back above the $38.14 previous close on expanding volume before the print.
(6) Confidence justification: 46%. The directional lean is better supported than usual because the mechanism is observable rather than inferred - IONQ fell on September 9 explicitly as rate-hike odds climbed, so I know how this specific name responds to this specific input, and the input is being applied again inside the window. What holds confidence down is that a beaten-down high-beta name can bounce hard on a benign print, the guidance raise gives real fundamental support underneath, and the 1h signal is NEUTRAL by construction since there is no catalyst in the next hour and the stock is chopping inside a narrow intraday range. The 30d NEUTRAL is a deliberate abstention: the raised outlook and the September 16 FOMC pull in opposite directions closely enough that I do not think four weeks resolves cleanly.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
Published automatically when this question settled, from shared research a member chose to make public. Content on ForecastNest Insights is for research, educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.