This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-29 18:18 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-30 18:18 UTC, when IONQ closed at $44.53, up 0.7% from $44.24 when the forecast was made. It traded between $43.73 and $47.33 along the way (-1.2% to +7.0%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-29 18:18 UTC (9/29/2026, 2:18:46 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-30 18:18 UTC (9/30/2026, 2:18:46 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-30 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 4 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $42.00–$46.50 | -5.1% to +5.1% | 60% | $44.25 | 52.0 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $42.50–$46.00 | -3.9% to +4.0% | 65% | $44.23 | 52.6 | no call |
| Perplexity | $43.00–$46.50 | -2.9% to +5.0% | 50% | $44.27 | 80.9 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $42.00–$46.50 | -5.0% to +5.2% | 40% | $44.20 | 78.2 | right |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | $42.20–$47.10 | -5.4% to +5.6% | 33% | $44.60 | 77.5 | right |
| DeepSeek | $42.00–$48.00 | -5.8% to +7.7% | 58% | $44.58 | 80.8 | right |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-29 18:18 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 10 | — | 1 | 8 · 5 right | 1 · 1 right | 67% (6/9) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 13 | — | 3 | 7 · 4 right | 3 · 2 right | 60% (6/10) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 12 | — | 1 | 4 · 2 right | 7 · 4 right | 55% (6/11) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 8 | — | 0 | 7 · 3 right | 1 · 1 right | 50% (4/8) |
| DeepSeek | 11 | — | 0 | 9 · 4 right | 2 · 1 right | 45% (5/11) |
| Perplexity | 3 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 33% (1/3) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 13 | — | 2 | 4 · 1 right | 7 · 2 right | 27% (3/11) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Other model | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-29 18:18 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub live Sep 29 shows IONQ $44.25 current, open $45.8 high $45.9044 low $43.82 previous close $44.58 down. Upstox Sep 29 reports $44.01 open $45.63 range $43.84-$45.87 average $44.85 high $84.58 low $25.90. AngelOne Sep 29 reports $44.26. Tokenized IONQon USD $45.26 per WEEX Sep 29.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum sector pulling back after Sep 21-24 Superion 256 placements with SDT, NVIDIA, FIU and BofA Buy $60 target Sep 28. IONQ 5-day +13.08% and 6-month +66.42% per Finnhub but today down -0.7% showing consolidation. Beta 3.34 amplifies market swings.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Daily range $43.82-$45.90 ~$2.08 ~4.7% ATR. Lower bound $42 near below today's low allowing for continued profit taking, upper bound $46.50 near above today's high and yesterday's $47.91 resistance. Slight bearish skew with more room below reflecting intraday downtrend Sep 29.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Three Superion placements remain fresh tailwind but no new filings in 1-day window Sep 29-30. NVIDIA Accelerated Quantum Research Center installation is catalyst but largely priced. Yield moves affect growth.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case is quantum computing momentum and BofA $60 target driving dip buying at $44 support. Invalidation would be close above $46.50 and reclaim of $45.90 high with volume and sector strength.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 60% based on live price $44.25 confirmed across Finnhub, Upstox, AngelOne within window start 18:18 UTC, and clear intraday down -1% pattern. Confidence moderate due to high beta and 1-day noise but bearish tilt justified by intraday weakness.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: As of 18:18 UTC on September 29, 2026, I found IONQ trading at $44.23 according to live financial data from Google Finance and NYSE quote feeds. I also reviewed September 28 market commentary from GuruFocus highlighting increased options activity-with call volume outpacing puts-and noting the company's ~$18B market cap despite an elevated price-to-sales multiple of around 66x.
(2) The current market regime as I read it: The market for early-stage quantum computing is highly speculative and momentum-driven. IONQ operates in a high-beta, risk-on regime where valuations are supported by long-term technological promise and institutional option positioning rather than near-term profitability or cash flow.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I am anchoring the 1-day forecast to $44.23, utilizing a price range of $42.50-$46.00. This relatively wide intraday band accounts for the stock's significant inherent volatility, capturing recent intraday lows around the $43.80s and leaving room for a retest of today's morning peak near $45.90.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: There are no major company-specific binary events scheduled in the next 24 hours. Price action will primarily be driven by broader speculative tech flows, algorithmic digestion of recent heavy options volume, and any macro shifts affecting the Nasdaq index.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The strongest counter-argument against near-term consolidation is the extreme valuation premium (high P/S ratio with negative profitability) making the stock highly vulnerable to macro liquidity shocks. A sudden spike in Treasury yields or a sharp rotation out of speculative growth could quickly invalidate support and drive the price below the $42.50 lower bound.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 65%. While current options market positioning provides a soft bullish undercurrent, 1-day forecasts on zero-earnings, high-volatility emerging technology stocks are largely subject to unpredictable intraday sentiment shifts and broader market noise.
Perplexity
Result: right
View full reasoning
Heuristically extracted from AI response
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes on 29 Sep 2026 place IONQ near $44. Stocknear showed $44.16, TradeSmith $44.21, TECHi $43.98, Stockmonitor $43.95, and CoinGlass $44.21. The prior close on 28 Sep was $44.58 after a session high of $47.91 and low of $44.54. Intraday range today has been roughly $43.82-$45.90. 52-week range stands at approximately $25.89-$84.64.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: IONQ is consolidating after a volatile multi-day stretch that included a sharp drop on 23 Sep and subsequent recovery. Price remains in the mid-$40s with elevated volume on recent sessions, consistent with a speculative growth name sensitive to broader risk sentiment in technology and quantum computing themes.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to ~$44.20, the one-day range of $42.00-$46.50 reflects typical recent daily swings of $2-$4 and nearby support near the $42-$43 zone plus resistance toward the recent high of $47-$48. The bounds allow for either a modest continuation of the soft tone or a recovery toward the prior session highs.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific earnings or product announcements are scheduled for the immediate 24-hour window. Price action is expected to remain driven primarily by broader market sentiment and residual flows in high-beta tech names rather than a discrete catalyst.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sudden risk-on move in speculative tech could push IONQ back through $45.50 toward $46.50-$47, invalidating the mild soft bias. Conversely, a break below $43 on elevated volume would open a clearer path toward the $41-$42 area and expand the downside of the range.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is moderate at 40% because one-day moves in a high-volatility growth stock are frequently noise-dominated, recent sessions have been two-sided, and no high-conviction catalyst is present to drive a strong directional bias.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: I could not retrieve a quote stamped at the 18:18 UTC baseline, so current_price is my best estimate anchored to the last confirmed close, not a live intraday quote. Morningstar shows IONQ at $44.58 for Sep 28, 2026, with a day range of $43.88 to $45.90, on a page stamped Sep 29 at 2:26 PM (Cboe BZX real-time price open), though the displayed price is the Sep 28 figure: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ionq/quote. I found no dated Sep 29 premarket or intraday print. A Kraken page showing a $45.05 premarket price was dated Aug 12, so I discarded it. Intraday movement on Sep 29 is unknown to me.
(2) Regime: IONQ is a high-volatility quantum-computing name trading well below its 52-week high of $84.64 and well above its 52-week low near $25.89 (Kraken page, older date; Robinhood earlier listed a low of $18.81). CNBC headlines show a recent rally: IonQ shares rose on Sep 23 after a reported quantum computing breakthrough, and it raised full-year revenue guidance on Sep 9 after the SkyWater Technology acquisition (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/IONQ). Yahoo Finance headlines describe three Superion 256 placements, including at NVIDIA's Accelerated Quantum Research Center, a claimed real-time error-correction breakthrough, and a Street target estimate of about $67. The broader market was soft on Monday, with SPY down 0.74% (Benzinga).
(3) Range: I anchor to about $44.60 and assume roughly 5% one-day volatility, which is about $2.25 for one sigma, typical for a speculative quantum name with a beta well above 1. That gives $42.20 to $47.10, near-symmetric on purpose because I have no reliable one-day directional edge. Reference levels are the $44.58 prior close and the $43.88 to $45.90 range on Sep 28.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: I found no IonQ-specific scheduled event today. Sector catalysts include quantum-peer headlines (D-Wave, Rigetti, Quantum Computing Inc.), macro data at 10:00 AM ET (Conference Board Consumer Confidence and JOLTS), and Fed speakers Goolsbee and Williams in the afternoon (Benzinga). Risk appetite for speculative growth, Treasury yields and Middle East headlines are the main unscheduled drivers.
(5) Counter-argument: After a strong September run, momentum names can retrace sharply on a risk-off tape, especially with the Fed having raised rates on Sep 16 (stockanalysis.com). A drop through the $43.88 Monday low would suggest sellers are in control. Conversely, further technology-partnership or error-correction headlines could push it through the $45.90 Monday high and toward $47.
(6) Confidence: 33%. Daily moves in this stock are dominated by noise and headlines, and my price anchor is the prior close rather than a baseline-time print. The 30-day mild bullish tilt rests on recent guidance and partnership news, but valuation and dilution risk keep conviction low.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: IONQ closed the source session (Sept 28) at $44.58, down 1.98% from the prior close of $45.48, after trading in a wide $44.24-$47.91 range (StockAnalysis; Robinhood). The stock opened strongly higher at $45.64, spiked to $47.91 on the BofA Securities initiation, and then reversed sharply to close near the session lows (Eastmoney). The catalyst was substantive: BofA analyst Vivek Arya initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $60 projected level, calling IonQ the largest pure-play quantum company and highlighting its SkyWater Technology acquisition and government supply-chain positioning (Barron's; Nasdaq). This followed a week of strong news, including raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450-$460 million (a 60% increase), a $28 million DARPA contract extension, and the September 8 Investor Day where IonQ introduced its Superion 256 system (Business Insider; Benzinga).
(2) Market regime: IONQ is in a high-volatility regime with a beta of 3.29 (StockAnalysis). The stock is trading above its 50-day moving average of $39.86 but below its 200-day moving average of $43.59, indicating near-term strength within a longer-term recovery. The RSI is 60.28, placing it in neutral-to-overbought territory without being extreme. Short interest is 10.19% of shares outstanding with a short ratio of 2.22 days (StockAnalysis), leaving some room for a squeeze but not an extreme setup. The stock has rallied 16.20% over the past week (eToro) and 9.97% over five sessions as of the BofA action (Nasdaq), putting it in a consolidation phase after a strong run.
(3) Price range justification: I am using a $42.00-$48.00 range. The lower bound reflects the $41.85-$42.00 zone identified as the lowest analyst target (StockAnalysis) and the $40.00 pivot support where buyers previously stepped in (Benzinga). The upper bound is anchored to the $47.91 intraday high from the source session and the $46.10-$47.10 resistance zone identified in recent technical analysis (KuCoin). IONQ's average daily range is roughly $3-$4, so a $6 range is consistent with current elevated volatility. The range is deliberately skewed to the downside, reflecting the failed breakout on Sept 28 and the stock's inability to hold above $45.
(4) Catalysts: The BofA initiation is the dominant catalyst and is now public. No IONQ-specific events are scheduled inside the 1-day window. The next earnings report is estimated for November 4, 2026, after market close (StockAnalysis). On the macro side, Tuesday brings JOLTS job openings and Consumer Confidence data at 10:00 AM ET, plus Fed speakers Goolsbee and Williams. These macro events could move the broad market but are not company-specific. The quantum sector remains sensitive to any government funding announcements or competitive developments.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bull case is that the BofA initiation represents a major institutional endorsement, and the strong analyst consensus (Strong Buy, average target $67.14) suggests significant upside from current levels (StockAnalysis). If IONQ reclaims $45 and closes above it, the failed breakout would be confirmed as a shakeout, opening the path to $47-$48. A close above $48 would invalidate the bearish thesis and suggest a retest of the 52-week high of $84.48. Conversely, a breakdown below $44 would confirm the bearish continuation and open the door to $42 and potentially $40.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 58% because the technical setup is mixed - the stock is in a consolidation phase after a strong weekly run, and the failed breakout on Sept 28 suggests near-term weakness. However, the BofA initiation is a substantive catalyst that provides fundamental support, and the strong analyst consensus limits downside. The 1-day horizon is dominated by noise, and the stock's high beta means the range could easily be breached in either direction. The confidence reflects a modest bearish tilt rather than strong conviction.
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