This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-25 15:26 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-28 15:26 UTC, when IONQ closed at $45.98, down 0.6% from $46.25 when the forecast was made. It traded between $45.15 and $47.91 along the way (-2.4% to +3.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-25 15:26 UTC (9/25/2026, 11:26:18 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-28 15:26 UTC (9/28/2026, 11:26:18 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-28 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 72 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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7 of the 7 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except GPT-5.6 Sol, Perplexity, Grok 4.5, Claude Opus 5.5, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and Muse Spark 1.1 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $41.50–$49.00 | -7.1% to +9.6% | 57% | $44.69 | 13.8 | wrong |
| Perplexity | $41.00–$47.00 | -8.0% to +5.4% | 45% | $44.58 | 22.1 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $42.50–$47.50 | -5.1% to +6.0% | 40% | $44.80 | 9.8 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $40.00–$48.50 | -10.1% to +9.0% | 50% | $44.50 | 21.0 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $43.50–$47.50 | -4.9% to +3.8% | 60% | $45.75 | 74.8 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $42.50–$48.20 | -6.9% to +5.5% | 54% | $45.67 | 64.0 | right |
| DeepSeek | $43.00–$49.00 | -6.3% to +6.8% | 58% | $45.90 | 30.3 | wrong |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-25 15:26 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 8 | — | 1 | 6 · 4 right | 1 · 1 right | 71% (5/7) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 11 | — | 2 | 6 · 4 right | 3 · 2 right | 67% (6/9) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 11 | — | 1 | 3 · 2 right | 7 · 4 right | 60% (6/10) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 8 | — | 0 | 7 · 3 right | 1 · 1 right | 50% (4/8) |
| DeepSeek | 9 | — | 0 | 7 · 3 right | 2 · 1 right | 44% (4/9) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 11 | — | 1 | 3 · 1 right | 7 · 2 right | 30% (3/10) |
| Perplexity | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Other model | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-25 15:26 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com showed IONQ trading in the mid-$44s on September 25, with its current-day historical row at approximately $44.69, an open near $44.58 and an intraday range around $44.23-$45.50. A separate Investing.com real-time snapshot earlier in the session showed $44.41 at 10:30:50 ET. Because I could not verify an exchange-timestamped trade exactly at 15:26 UTC, I use $44.69 as the closest available near-window estimate and classify data_access as partial. Sources: https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii-historical-data and https://ca.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii-technical
(2) Market regime: IONQ has strong short-term momentum after closing at $40.74 on September 22, $42.54 on September 23 and $44.98 on September 24. The September 23 session was exceptionally volatile, ranging from approximately $41.63 to $46.05 on heavy volume, while September 24 extended the rebound with another 5.74% advance. Daily moving averages from MA5 through MA200 were all below the current price in Investing.com's September 25 technical snapshot, supporting a bullish trend reading, although today's relatively flat trade suggests momentum is cooling after the rapid move. Sources: https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii-historical-data and https://ca.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii-technical
(3) Price range: I use $41.50-$49.00 because IONQ's realized volatility is high and recent daily ranges have exceeded 9%-10%. September 23 covered roughly $41.63-$46.05 and September 24 covered approximately $41.28-$45.66. From $44.69, the forecast range allows about 7.1% downside and 9.6% upside, deliberately giving more room above because my one-day bias is mildly bullish. The $41.5-$42.5 region corresponds to recent support, while $46-$49 is the next plausible extension zone if the recent breakout resumes. Sources: https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/IONQ/summary/price and https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii-historical-data
(4) Catalysts inside the window: IonQ has had several fresh company-specific catalysts. On September 24, IonQ announced quantum generative-modeling results for high-resolution radar change detection, reporting performance advantages over classical baselines in some tests. Recent coverage also highlights IonQ's planned Superion 256 deployment at NVIDIA's Accelerated Quantum Research Center and its newly demonstrated real-time quantum error decoder. These developments can sustain speculative interest even without an earnings release inside the one-day window. Sources: https://ionq.com/news/ionq-demonstrates-quantum-generative-modeling-for-high-resolution-radar-change-detection and https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ionq-prem-quantum-system-nvidia-002115947.html
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bearish case is valuation and execution risk after a rapid three-session advance. Recent analysis notes that IonQ remains loss-making despite strong revenue growth and that the stock trades at a very high sales multiple, while some announced quantum-system deployments will not translate into near-term revenue. A break back below roughly $41.5-$42.0 would undermine the current breakout structure, while sustained movement above approximately $46 would indicate that the recent momentum phase is continuing more strongly than my mild-bullish base case. Sources: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/24/ionq-just-solved-quantum-computings-hardest-problem-the-stock-is-still-down-43-in-a-year/ and https://financefeeds.com/ionq-superion-256-fiu-sale-revenue-late-2027/
(6) Confidence: 57% reflects a genuine but modest bullish edge. Strong recent price momentum, positive technical structure and multiple fresh quantum-computing announcements support further upside, but IONQ is a high-beta stock with unusually large daily swings; Yahoo Finance reports a 5-year monthly beta around 3.30. The stock has also already advanced sharply from below $40 earlier in September, increasing reversal risk, and the absence of an exact 15:26 UTC exchange print limits confidence further. Sources: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/IONQ/ and https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii-historical-data
Perplexity
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
Heuristically extracted from AI response
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from StockAnalysis, Stocknear, StockMonitor, TECHi and Robinhood as of market hours 25 Sep 2026 place IONQ near $44.50-$45.50 (prev close $44.98, day range so far ~$44.12-$45.51). Technicals show RSI ~60, price above 50-day (~$39.60) and near 200-day (~$43.60) MAs, ATR ~$2.70. Recent catalysts include the 22 Sep announcement of industry-first end-to-end real-time quantum error decoder and 23 Sep news of Superion 256 QPU installation at Nvidia research center (sources: IonQ press releases, CNBC, Motley Fool).
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term constructive momentum following positive quantum technology headlines, within a high-beta speculative name that remains well below its 52-week high of $84.64. The stock has recovered from mid-September lows near $35-$37 but shows elevated volatility typical of pure-play quantum computing equities.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live ~$44.80 print. ATR of ~$2.70 and recent daily ranges of $2-$4+ support a one-day band of roughly $42.50-$47.50. Downside room toward recent support near $41-$42; upside toward the prior session high zone near $45.50-$47.50. The range is modestly skewed higher to reflect residual positive news momentum while acknowledging volatility.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major earnings or scheduled corporate events inside the 1-day window (next earnings estimated around 4 Nov 2026). Residual follow-through from the quantum error-correction and Nvidia partnership announcements remains the primary near-term driver; Quantum World Congress activity may provide secondary color.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Profit-taking after the recent multi-day rally or broader tech risk-off could push the stock back through $42.50 toward the mid-$40s or lower. A decisive break and hold above $47.50 on volume would invalidate the contained range view in favor of stronger short-term upside continuation.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 40% reflects solid live price and technical data plus constructive recent news flow, but the stock’s high beta, speculative sector dynamics, and lack of a fresh hard catalyst for the immediate session keep conviction moderate.
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Robinhood (https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/IONQ/) shows IONQ on 2026-09-25 trading at $44.52 within a session range of $44.12-$45.51. Volume was 7.31M against a 25.59M average, which points to an early-session snapshot, and the 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64. TipRanks (https://www.tipranks.com/news/whats-driving-ionq-qbts-and-rgti-stocks-lower-in-premarket-today) reports IonQ, D-Wave and Rigetti trading lower in Friday pre-market on profit-taking after a strong quantum rebound, even as the broader market moved higher. The Eastern Herald (https://easternherald.com/2026/09/24/ionq-stock-quantum-error-decoder-nvidia-deployment-september-23/) and Morningstar (https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ionq/quote) confirm a Sep 23 close of $42.54, up 4.42%, on volume about 233% above average. I use $44.50 as current_price. The Robinhood snapshot is dated Sep 25 intraday but not stamped at exactly 15:26 UTC, so data_access is partial.
(2) Current market regime: IONQ is consolidating after a news-driven spike. On Sep 22-23 the company announced a real-time quantum error-correction decoder and an agreement to install its Superion 256 system at Nvidia's new Quantum Research Center (Eastern Herald; Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IONQ/). On Sep 23 the stock opened near $46, sold into the low $42s, and then stabilized, per a Sep 23 intraday recap (https://www.timothysykes.com/news/ionq-inc-ionq-news-2026_09_23/). It has since held in the mid-$44s. The macro backdrop is a headwind for long-duration, cash-burning names. TipRanks notes the Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% in September and August CPI was 3.4%. Sentiment is therefore split between technical-milestone enthusiasm and concerns about valuation and cash burn.
(3) Price range justification: TradingView (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-IONQ/) lists IONQ's volatility at about 10.6% with a beta of about 4.7. I assume a daily 1-sigma move of about 6-7% and widen for weekend gap risk, since the window runs from Friday late morning to Monday late morning. The range $40.00-$48.50 is about -10.1% / +9.0% around $44.50. The slight downside tilt reflects the Friday profit-taking and the tendency of news spikes to retrace; it is not a directional call. Reference levels: $44.12 (today's low) and $41.6-42.5 (the Sep 23 low and close) below; $45.51 (today's high) and about $46 (the Sep 23 spike high) above.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings are due; the next report is Nov 11, 2026 (Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii; TradingView). Likely drivers are rotation within the quantum basket (IONQ, QBTS, RGTI move together), follow-through or fading of this week's error-decoder and Nvidia news, rates and oil headlines including potential U.S.-Iran talks (TipRanks), quarter-end rebalancing before Sep 30, and Monday's open. Analyst support includes a Wedbush $75 target (Investing.com) and a B. Riley $100 target (Eastern Herald), but these rarely move price over a single day.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The bull case is that the error-decoder and Nvidia news marks a real technical inflection. In that reading, profit-taking is shallow and IONQ breaks above the ~$46 spike high into the high-$40s, helped by a high-beta rebound if yields and oil keep easing. The bear case is that the news spike fully retraces as rates stay high and quantum names de-rate, taking IONQ back through $42 toward $40. A sustained move outside $40-$48.50 would invalidate the range.
(6) Why confidence is 50%: The range is about 1.4 sigma wide, which would nominally contain about 80% of outcomes. I discount heavily because IONQ is among the most volatile large-cap names, with a beta near 4.7. Quantum stocks gap sharply on headlines, the window spans a weekend, and my price is an early-session snapshot rather than a quote stamped at 15:26 UTC. All horizons are neutral because I see no reliable directional edge; forcing one would mostly capture noise.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data acquisition: Live pricing sourced via Google Search from financial platforms (https://investors.ionq.com/stock-info/default.aspx) shows IONQ trading at $45.75 as of 15:26 UTC on September 25, 2026. The stock has surged over 20% this week, breaking out from the $37 level just days ago.
(2) Market regime: The current market environment for quantum computing and AI hardware is intensely momentum-driven. Buyers are aggressively rewarding IONQ following its September 22 announcement of the industry's first real-time quantum error correction decoder, alongside news of deployments at NVIDIA's Accelerated Quantum Research Center.
(3) Price range: The 1-day price range of $43.50-$47.50 is anchored to the extreme volatility of this week's run-up. The stock hit an intraday high of $46.36; breaking that could test $47.50, while a failure to hold momentum could see a retest of yesterday's gap support near $43.50.
(4) Catalysts: There are no major company-specific catalysts scheduled for the immediate 24-hour window. Price action will likely be driven by institutional flow digestion as the Quantum World Congress 2026 event wraps up in Maryland, and standard Friday afternoon positioning.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument to the bullish thesis is immediate valuation exhaustion and weekend de-risking. The stock currently trades at a steep price-to-sales multiple, and with the error-decoder news now fully priced in, profit-taking could easily push the price below the $44 floor, invalidating short-term upside.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is set at 60%. While the fundamental technology breakthroughs and raised guidance provide a robust structural tailwind, single-day forecasting after a massive multi-day rally inherently carries heavy execution risk due to mean-reverting algorithmic flows on a Friday afternoon.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub IONQ quote Sep 25 shows current 45.67, open 44.7, high 46.36, low 44.12, previous close 44.98, 5-day +23.97%. American Market News Sep 25 notes gap up from 40.74 close to 45.84 open and last 42.9010 earlier. Archynetys Sep 25 07:04 UTC reports rally over 12% on demonstration of real-time quantum error decoding over 31.5M operations on standard CPU. Ainvest Sep 25 reports tumble 6% later same day with $3.1B volume rank 27 on mixed sector signals, showing intraday reversal and high volatility.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum sector is in high-beta momentum regime. IONQ beta 3.34 per Finnhub, 52-week range 25.89-84.64, YTD +1.78% but 1Y -34%. Market Sep 25 is risk-on with XLK +0.82% leading, yet yields uptick pressuring long-duration. IONQ is trading above 20-day but below 84.64 high, with unusually large options volume 106k calls +40% vs average per American Market News. Regime is news-driven spike followed by profit-taking.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to live 45.67. Using intraday range 44.12-46.36 (2.24 range) and recent 5-day return 23.97%, implied 1-day ATR ~8-10%. Lower bound 42.50 aligns with earlier last trade 42.90 and gap fill support, upper bound 48.20 aligns with pre-market high 45.84 plus extension toward $50 psychological target cited by TradingNews $50 target above $40.75 on error-correction news. Range skewed slightly up (2.53 above vs 3.17 below) reflecting bullish catalyst but acknowledging fade risk.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings scheduled inside 1-day window (Q2 already reported, stock flat at 40.02 after beat per Webull). Catalyst is ongoing news flow: FIU quantum computer acquisition PR Sep 25 and error-decoder demo. No SEC filing expected in next 24h. Main driver is options gamma and momentum from Sep 25 news. After-hours move Sep 25 -7.64% noted by Ainvest on acquisition-driven growth concerns could spill into next session open.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is high valuation 38x 2026 sales guidance $455M per TradingNews, $2B cash but no debt, 61% revenue from 3 customers per Ainvest, and insider selling concerns. If quantum sector sentiment turns or TLT weakness drives risk-off, IONQ could retest 40.74 prior close. Invalidation would be close below 42.50 on high volume breaking gap support, or close above 48.20 on sustained call buying confirming breakout.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects live data access but conflicting intraday signals (rally 12% and tumble 6% both reported same day Sep 25). High beta 3.34 and options volume make 1-day direction noisy. Data is live per Finnhub Sep 25, but lack of clear institutional flow direction lowers conviction. Neutral 30-day reflects stretched valuation vs long-term potential.
DeepSeek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: IonQ is trading at $45.90 as of 12:05 PM EDT on September 25, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance, up about 2% from the previous close of $44.98. Robinhood shows a similar quote of $45.91. The stock has a 52-week range of $25.89-$84.64 and a market cap near $18.6 billion. Recent news includes a quantum error correction breakthrough announced September 22, a deal with Nvidia to install its Superion 256 quantum computer in Nvidia's research center announced September 23, raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450-460 million announced September 22, and a contract with Florida International University announced September 24. The Quantum World Congress 2026 is ongoing from September 23-25 in College Park, Maryland. Analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average projected level of $67.14, per stockanalysis.com.
(2) The current market regime is hawkish Fed policy with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.17% and the 30-year near 5.48%. Rising yields pressure long-duration growth equities, but quantum computing is a thematic sector with strong idiosyncratic momentum. The Nasdaq is up roughly 0.6% on the session, and IonQ is outperforming. The stock has a beta of 3.30, so it is highly sensitive to market swings. Sector peers Rigetti and D-Wave are also active, indicating thematic interest rather than purely company-specific flow.
(3) Price range justification: I am using the current price of $45.90 and the intraday range of $44.12-$46.35 as the anchor. With a beta above 3 and daily moves frequently exceeding 5%, a one-session range of $43.00-$49.00 is reasonable. The lower bound reflects a potential pullback if the conference ends without further positive catalysts or if profit-taking emerges. The upper bound reflects continued momentum, possible short covering, and the stock's history of sharp upward moves on news. The range is not symmetric around the current price because the recent catalyst flow and sector momentum tilt the distribution slightly to the upside, but the high volatility argues against a narrow band.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The Quantum World Congress 2026 concludes on September 25. No earnings or major scheduled events for IonQ fall within the one-day window; the next estimated earnings date is November 4, 2026, per stockanalysis.com. The conference could produce additional announcements or partnership news, and the recent deal flow with Nvidia and FIU suggests the company is actively expanding its commercial footprint. There is no confirmed product launch or regulatory decision inside the window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The stock has already rallied substantially from its September 22 close of $40.74 and is up roughly 13% over the past week. A pre-market article from TipRanks on September 25 flagged that IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti were trading lower in premarket, suggesting early selling pressure that may resume if the conference fails to deliver new positive news. Rising Treasury yields could also trigger a rotation out of high-multiple growth names. The stock is heavily shorted, which can amplify moves in either direction. If the broader market turns risk-off, IonQ's high beta would likely magnify the decline.
(6) Why confidence is 58%: The evidence for a mildly bullish bias is supported by live price data, a clear catalyst calendar (the ongoing conference), recent breakthroughs, raised guidance, and strong analyst consensus. However, the high volatility, the mixed pre-market signals, and the absence of a scheduled company-specific event inside the window introduce substantial uncertainty. A neutral call could also be defended, but the balance of live evidence and sector momentum tilts modestly to the upside. A confidence of 58% reflects a real but not strong directional conviction over a single session.
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