This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-03 03:07 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-03 20:00 UTC, when IONQ closed at $39.05, up 3.7% from $37.66 when the forecast was made. It traded between $37.84 and $39.78 along the way (+0.5% to +5.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-03 03:07 UTC (9/2/2026, 11:07:11 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-03 20:00 UTC (9/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-03 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 16.88 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $35.00–$40.50 | -7.2% to +7.4% | 76% | $37.70 | 81.7 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $36.00–$39.00 | -4.4% to +3.6% | 60% | $37.64 | 10.9 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $35.50–$40.00 | -5.7% to +6.3% | 40% | $37.64 | 78.4 | right |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $35.10–$39.80 | -6.7% to +5.7% | 42% | $37.64 | 30.8 | wrong |
| claude-opus-5 | $35.10–$40.10 | -6.7% to +6.5% | 44% | $37.64 | 30.2 | wrong |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-03 03:07 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 5 | — | 1 | 4 · 4 right | — | 100% (4/4) |
| Grok 4.5 | 5 | — | 0 | 4 · 3 right | 1 · 0 right | 60% (3/5) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 5 | — | 0 | 3 · 2 right | 2 · 0 right | 40% (2/5) |
| claude-opus-5 | 5 | — | 0 | — | 5 · 1 right | 20% (1/5) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 4 | — | 1 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 0 right | 0% (0/3) |
Every published IONQ forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-03 03:07 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Price and recent action: Public.com reports IONQ at $37.70 in after-hours trading on September 2, with an after-hours high of $38.02 and low of $37.61; the latest trade in that source was recorded at 8:00 PM ET. ChartExchange records the September 2 regular-session close at $37.66. Because the requested timestamp is later than the reported 8:00 PM ET quote, $37.70 is the latest directly verified price available rather than a claimed exact 11:07 PM ET tick. (Sources: Public.com; ChartExchange.)
(2) Market regime: The short-term regime remains weak. IONQ fell 3.89% on September 1 to $37.78 and then essentially stabilized on September 2, closing around $37.66 after trading as low as $36.86. The stock remains highly volatile, with the August 27-September 2 sequence showing repeated large percentage moves; therefore the immediate setup is bearish-to-neutral rather than a confirmed longer-term breakdown. (Sources: StockAnalysis; INDmoney.)
(3) Price range: I estimate $35.00-$40.50 for the next one-day window from the $37.70 reference. The lower boundary allows for a further roughly 7% decline, consistent with IONQ's recent volatility and the September 2 intraday low of $36.86; the upper boundary allows for a roughly 7.4% rebound back through $40. The asymmetric downside emphasis reflects the still-negative short-term momentum, while the broad upper band recognizes IONQ's tendency to produce rapid countertrend rallies. (Sources: INDmoney; StockAnalysis.)
(4) Catalysts: The most important company-specific catalyst is IonQ's Investor Day scheduled for September 8, only a few trading sessions away. Barron's reports that investors are likely to focus on the financial and strategic implications of the $1.8 billion SkyWater acquisition and the company's broader vertically integrated quantum strategy. Separately, IonQ-related research news on September 1 described a hybrid quantum-chemistry workflow with QC Ware, while the broader market remains sensitive to Friday's U.S. employment report and Federal Reserve expectations. (Sources: IonQ investor relations; Barron's; The Quantum Insider.)
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish counter-argument is the company's unusually strong reported growth and expanding technology platform. StockAnalysis reports second-quarter revenue of $80.05 million, up 286.83% year over year, while the SkyWater acquisition gives IonQ greater control over quantum-chip fabrication. Positive Investor Day expectations or additional commercial/technology announcements could rapidly reverse the recent weakness. A sustained recovery above the September 2 high near $38.06 would weaken the immediate bearish interpretation. (Sources: StockAnalysis; IonQ company disclosures summarized by Barron's.)
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 76% because the recent price sequence, elevated volatility, and cautious sentiment toward speculative quantum stocks all favor continued short-term pressure, while there is no major earnings event immediately capable of resetting valuation. Confidence is below 80% because IONQ can move sharply on relatively small company-specific headlines and the exact price at 03:07 UTC was not directly observable; the latest verified after-hours quote was $37.70. The 7-day signal is more bearish because Investor Day approaches amid a damaged technical structure, while the 30-day signal is neutral because that event and the company's strong growth trajectory could materially change sentiment.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from financial platforms like Google Finance and MarketChameleon indicates that IONQ closed the regular trading session on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, at $37.64. The stock slipped 0.37% on the day with trading volume reaching approximately 13.3 million shares.
(2) The current market regime is characterized by a persistent technical downtrend despite the company's strong fundamental top-line growth (recently reporting 287% YoY revenue growth). The stock has shed roughly 19% since its earnings announcement a couple of weeks ago and remains trapped below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling sustained institutional distribution.
(3) The price range of $36.00-$39.00 accounts for the asset's extreme volatility, which is currently running at an annualized rate of 89%. The downside bound allows for a test of the structural $36 support level if selling resumes, while the upside target permits a modest technical relief bounce toward the resistance established earlier in the week.
(4) Inside this 24-hour window, the stock will primarily trade on macroeconomic beta and technical flows ahead of Friday's broader market Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. There are no immediate company-specific catalysts scheduled for Thursday, as IONQ's highly anticipated Investor Day is slated for September 8, 2026.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a choppy, directionless session is the stock's approaching oversold condition. With the 14-day RSI sitting at 42.2 and shares down 55% from their peak, an unexpected influx of speculative dip-buyers could trigger a sudden short-covering rally that swiftly invalidates the near-term bearish bias and pushes past $39.00.
(6) My confidence is 60%. While the technical momentum clearly favors the bears, predicting a one-day directional move for a speculative, high-beta stock in a volatile pre-NFP macroeconomic environment is highly susceptible to erratic, news-driven whiplash.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Wednesday 2 Sep 2026 close was $37.64 (down 0.37% from Tuesday’s $37.78), day range $36.79-$38.24, volume ~13.2M, per StockAnalysis, Motley Fool, Stocknear, StockMonitor and KTTC. After-hours held near $37.79-$37.84. Prior closes: 1 Sep $37.78, 31 Aug $39.31.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quiet, near-flat session for the high-beta quantum name after Tuesday’s decline. Price action remained contained within a modest range while the broader market rebounded slightly. Speculative growth stocks continue to trade with elevated sensitivity to risk sentiment.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $37.64 Wednesday close. Recent daily ranges of $1.5-$3+ and beta ~3.3 support potential 1-day moves of 5-8%. Lower bound near $35.50 allows for extension of recent weakness; upper bound near $40.00 covers a rebound toward the prior week’s levels. Range is roughly balanced given the neutral session.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific events or earnings for Thursday 3 Sep. Broader market follow-through and any overnight macro or geopolitical developments remain the primary potential drivers; next earnings estimated early November.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on rebound in growth/tech could push IONQ above $40; accelerated selling pressure could drive a break below $35.50. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the neutral stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Wednesday close is confirmed and the session was essentially flat, yet single-day forecasts for high-volatility speculative names remain noise-dominated; absence of stock-specific catalysts keeps conviction moderate.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: As of the forecast window start (2026-09-03 03:07 UTC), IONQ is trading near $37.64. Multiple real-time sources confirm this: Yahoo Finance shows $37.64 with a daily range of $36.78-$38.23; eToro reports $37.64, down 0.37% over 24 hours and 6.67% over the past week; The Motley Fool shows $37.66 with an after-hours quote of $37.55. The previous close was $37.78. I have anchored my range to $37.64, reflecting the price at window start.
(2) Current market regime: IONQ is in a steep downtrend from its 52-week high of $84.64 set in mid-2025. The stock has fallen 44.63% over three months and 15.8% year-to-date. Daily technical indicators are bearish: the stock is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a 30-day annualized volatility of 89%. The stock has a beta of 2.98, making it highly sensitive to broader market moves. Trading volume on September 1 was 44% below average, suggesting waning buyer interest. However, the company reported record Q2 revenue of $80.05 million, up 287% year-over-year, and analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" consensus with a $69.92 average projected level.
(3) Price range justification: I expect IONQ to trade between $35.10 and $39.80 over the next 1-day window. The upper bound of $39.80 is informed by the $39.31 Tuesday opening price and the $40 level that has acted as resistance since the August 5 earnings report. The lower bound of $35.10 is informed by the 52-week low of $25.89 and the $36.78 intraday low from September 2, with $36 acting as a psychological support level. The range is asymmetric to the downside because short-term momentum is bearish, the stock is below key moving averages, and the upcoming warrant expiration on September 30 creates a dilution overhang.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The immediate 1-day window (September 3) includes no company-specific earnings or announcements for IONQ; the next earnings report is estimated for November 11, 2026. However, the broader market is reacting to: (a) ISM Services PMI and initial jobless claims data due later today, which will influence Fed rate expectations; (b) ongoing geopolitical risk from US-Iran tensions that has triggered risk-off sentiment in speculative tech stocks; and (c) continued investor focus on the upcoming September 8 Investor Day, where the $1.8 billion SkyWater acquisition is expected to be the primary topic.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that IONQ is fundamentally undervalued relative to its growth trajectory. Q2 revenue of $80.05 million beat the $66.47 million consensus, the adjusted loss of $0.33 per share beat expectations of $0.56, and management raised full-year guidance to $280-290 million. The SkyWater acquisition, finalized in late July, gives IonQ control of its own semiconductor fabrication facility and could accelerate development of a 200,000-qubit system by approximately 12 months. A positive catalyst-such as a major government contract announcement or a dovish Fed signal-could trigger a sharp short-squeeze rally back toward $40-$42. A break above $39.80 would invalidate my bearish short-term view.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 42%, reflecting the extreme volatility and speculative nature of quantum computing stocks. The bearish technical setup is clear, but the company's operating performance is improving rapidly, creating a tug-of-war between valuation concerns and fundamental growth. The 1-day window is too short for fundamentals to matter materially; it will be driven by macro data (ISM Services, jobless claims), risk sentiment, and any last-minute positioning ahead of the September 8 Investor Day. The upcoming warrant expiration on September 30 adds a layer of uncertainty around supply dynamics. I am more confident in the range boundaries ($35.10-$39.80) than in the direction within it, and I acknowledge that a violent upside move is possible given the stock's 2.98 beta and 89% volatility.
claude-opus-5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The window opens 2026-09-03 03:07 UTC - 11:07 PM ET Wednesday - so Wednesday's session is complete. StockAnalysis.com quotes IONQ at $37.64 as of Sep 2, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, down $0.14 (-0.37%) from $37.78, on 13.3M shares, with a day range of $36.79-$38.24, a 52-week range of $25.89-$84.64 and a market cap of $14.95B; the 7:59 PM after-hours print was $37.84 (+0.53%), above both the close and Tuesday's close. Volume is the detail worth holding onto: 13.3M against a 20-day average near 19.4M, the second consecutive session well below normal. Peers did the same thing, from the same source and timestamp - Rigetti $14.87 (-0.80%) on 12.0M shares, after-hours $14.89; D-Wave $16.49 (-0.30%) on 11.5M, after-hours $16.52. All three closed red on a day the broad market rose: SPY finished $765.16 (+0.44%) and the S&P 500 at 7,667.60 (+0.46%) with ten of eleven sectors higher (StockAnalysis.com; Trading Economics), though TheStreet's Sept 2 coverage shows the Russell 2000 down 1.23% intraday. Macro: the 10-year touched 4.814%, its highest since November 2023, while crude turned lower for the first time in a week - WTI -0.71% to $89.58, Brent -0.39% to $94.28 - and ADP's August print came in at +38,000 against a 47,000 forecast, the slowest month since January. Broadcom reported after the close to a mixed reception (initial 5-6% decline per CNBC and TradingKey, recovering to -0.82% at $364.23 by 7:59 PM on StockAnalysis.com), and Snowflake rose 23%. Trading Economics' Sept 3 note has US stock futures "little changed." Positioning and valuation, unchanged: beta 3.30, short interest 42.36M shares (10.74% of float, 1.99 days to cover), 50-day average $42.54 and 200-day $44.40 (StockAnalysis.com statistics); roughly 52 times forward sales and about $3B in liquid assets (The Motley Fool, Sept 1); an average analyst target of $69.44 on a Strong Buy consensus of 9 buys and 1 hold (TipRanks, Aug 21, updated Aug 30). No IonQ-specific news is scheduled or reported - Q2 landed Aug 7 and the next earnings event is early November.
(2) Market regime: Two things are true at once and they point different ways. The macro squeeze that drove this name from $42.46 to $37 stopped tightening on Wednesday: crude fell for the first time in a week and ADP came in soft enough to start undercutting the September hike the market had been pricing at roughly two-thirds odds. That matters more for IonQ than for almost anything else listed, because at 52 times forward sales with negative EBITDA, essentially all of its value sits in far-dated cash flows that a rising long rate discounts hardest. But the quantum basket did not participate in the relief. IONQ, Rigetti and D-Wave all finished red while the index rose and ten of eleven sectors gained - a fourth consecutive session of underperformance, and the clearest expression yet of the pattern The Motley Fool documented on Sept 1: across 23 days when the Nasdaq-100 fell at least 1.5%, quantum names lagged about 74% of the time. What keeps that from reading as distribution is the volume. Thirteen million shares against a 19.4M average is drift on absent buyers, not sellers pressing; the same is true across the peers. And the intraday shape was constructive rather than weak - IONQ printed $36.79, a new low for this move beneath Tuesday's $37.59, then recovered to close near the middle of its range and firmed after hours. That is the second time this week the name has broken to a new low and been bought back within the session. So the honest characterisation is a stock whose macro headwind is easing, whose sector is still being avoided, and whose sellers are thin.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $37.64, the official close, with the 7:59 PM after-hours print at $37.84 noted as thin but slightly firmer. The range is placed close to symmetrically on purpose, because I am declaring no directional view for the session. Realised daily ranges have been compressing all week - 8.4% Friday, 5.4% Monday, 4.4% Tuesday, 3.9% Wednesday - which puts the current one-day sigma near 4.5%, well below the 5-6% this 3.30-beta name ran at during the selloff. The band is $35.10 to $40.10, or -6.75% down and +6.53% up. The faint downward tilt reflects the persistent relative weakness of the basket rather than any read on Thursday's tape. The upper bound sits beneath Monday's $40.55 high, which is the nearest genuine overhead reference; the 50-day average at $42.54 is far above and unreachable in a session. The lower bound sits well below Wednesday's $36.79 low, which is now the defended level and the only nearby structure - beneath it the chart is open toward the mid-$35s.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Nothing company-specific. Thursday brings initial jobless claims and the July trade balance at 8:30 AM ET, with claims consensus near 201K against 203K prior, and ISM Services at 10:00 AM, flagged as market-moving on the week-ahead calendars. The asymmetry has flipped over the course of this week and now favours this name on soft data: after ADP's miss, Tuesday's ISM new-orders drop to 53.7 from 56.7 and JOLTS showing easing hiring, a weak print reads as relief on the hike question rather than as a growth scare, and nothing in the market benefits more mechanically from lower discount rates than an asset whose near-term earnings are irrelevant. Running alongside is the Broadcom reaction working through the AI and speculative-tech complex, which reaches quantum only as a risk-appetite signal, and the unresolved Gulf situation, where crude's first down day does not mean the pressure is gone. Friday's August payrolls, with unemployment consensus at 4.0% against 4.1% prior, is the week's decisive event and sits just outside this window.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: Since I am NEUTRAL on the day, both cases deserve stating. Against a bullish read: the basket has now underperformed for four straight sessions including a broad up day, the stock sits below every reference of the past two weeks with the 50-day nearly 13% overhead, the 10-year printed a thirty-four-month high in the same session that supposedly brought relief, and a 52-times-forward-sales multiple has a long way it can compress before anything about the business changes. Against a bearish read: two consecutive sub-average volume sessions say no one is actually pressing the sell button, the new low at $36.79 was bought back within the day for the second time this week, all three quantum names firmed after hours, oil turned down, the labour data is softening in a way that has repeatedly pulled hike odds down fast this cycle, and short interest near 10.7% of float is latent fuel if yields turn. What resolves it: a reclaim of $38.24 and then Monday's $40.55 would say the rate relief is finally reaching this corner of the market; a break of $36.79 on volume above the 19.4M average would say the light-volume drift has become real selling and would have justified a bearish call I chose not to make.
(6) Confidence: 44%. I have set the short horizons and the week to NEUTRAL because the evidence conflicts and, more to the point, the driver changed direction mid-week. For several sessions the honest read was a tightening squeeze of rising yields and rising crude, and I called this name lower on that basis; two of the three legs eased on Wednesday, and the right response is to update rather than keep leaning on a thesis that has stopped being fed. But I am not turning constructive either - a stock that closes red on a broadly green day, for the fourth session running, is telling you something about who is willing to own it, and that observation is name-specific rather than macro. On a 3.30-beta single name with two market-moving prints inside the window and payrolls the morning after, a genuinely balanced read should be reported as one. The number sits slightly below what I would assign a diversified vehicle in the same spot, because a single name carries headline risk - a contract, an analyst move, a partnership - that an index averages away, and this one has repeatedly moved 6-10% on nothing but basket sentiment. The single MILD BEARISH sits at 30 days and rests on things that are specific and dated: a Sept 16 FOMC the market has been pricing at roughly two-thirds odds of a hike, the weakest month of the seasonal calendar, and a valuation that is the most rate-sensitive on the board while long yields sit at multi-year highs globally. On the fields about me: this session reports the model as Opus 5 with exact identifier claude-opus-5, which is what I state rather than inferring a marketing string. The timestamp is accurate to within a few minutes - the date is confirmed as 2026-09-03 and the window's own 03:07 UTC start anchors the hour - but I have no precise wall clock, so treat it as approximate.
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