This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-08-20 20:13 UTC. The window closed 2026-08-21 20:13 UTC, when IONQ closed at $44.85, up 8.0% from $41.52 when the forecast was made. It traded between $42.01 and $45.46 along the way (+1.2% to +9.5%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-08-20 20:13 UTC (8/20/2026, 4:13:49 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-08-21 20:13 UTC (8/21/2026, 4:13:49 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-08-21 (New York); Stored expiry outside regular session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: After close. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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1 of the 1 model called a direction, and 0 of that call was right.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok | $39.00–$43.50 | -6.1% to +4.8% | 58% | — | 11.1 | wrong |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-08-20 20:13 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published IONQ forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-08-20 20:13 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Grok
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
Market Regime Assessment: The overall regime is short-term bearish but transitioning toward mean-reverting consolidation. 1h ADX 44 and 4h ADX 30 confirm strong downside momentum, yet RSI is rising from oversold/neutral levels, 1h MACD histogram is turning upward, and 4h Bollinger %B at 0.07 indicates oversold exhaustion. Daily ADX 23 and weekly ADX 17 suggest the medium/longer-term trend lacks conviction, with narrowing volatility across all timeframes reinforcing a consolidation phase after the sharp 10.9% drop. This regime limits extreme downside and places focus on nearby support/resistance. Technical Synthesis & Timeframe Logic: For a 1-day forecast, I weight 1h and 4h most heavily; daily serves as medium-term anchor, weekly as distant context. 1h shows bearish EMA stack and strong ADX but rising RSI/MACD and a bullish stochastic cross → immediate selling slowing. 4h shows a bullish EMA stack (20>50) but price below both, with oversold stochastic and falling MACD → bearish momentum persisting, but oversold conditions favor a potential bounce. Daily shows bearish EMA stack and falling MACD histogram → medium-term risk remains down. Convergence is a bearish bias overall, but divergence between oversold conditions and continued downward pressure suggests limited downside with possible intraday bounce capped by resistance. Sentiment Context & Integration: ETF Sentiment Score of 62 (Bullish) indicates favorable broad-market conditions, which may provide a cushion and help IONQ hold support. However, IONQ-specific volume is extremely low, so broad sentiment may have limited impact; it adds a modest bullish offset rather than a strong directional driver. Price Range Justification: With daily ATR at 7.3% (~$3.03) but declining and low volume, I expect realized daily range to be narrower than the historical average. Key support is $40.34 (1h) and $40.00 (4h); key near-term resistance is 1h 9EMA $41.83, 1h 20/50 EMA $42.84-$43.56, and 4h 9EMA $43.45. Thus, a bounce is capped near $43.50, while a breakdown below $40.00 could see $39.00 as the next logical level. This yields a range of $39.00-$43.50, centered near the current price. Counter-Argument & Key Risks: Bullish scenario: oversold conditions and bullish ETF sentiment ignite a short squeeze, pushing price above $43.50 toward $45.55 resistance. Bearish scenario: continued ADX bearishness and low liquidity break $40.00, accelerating toward $37.00-$38.00. Low volume also raises gap risk from any overnight news. Confidence Attribution & Catalysts: Confidence is 58% due to mixed signals-bearish short-term momentum versus oversold technicals, bullish longer-term EMAs versus daily bearish structure, and very low volume. No clear catalyst is evident; a break above $43.50 or below $40.00 would shift the near-term bias and change confidence.
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