This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for MSFT, created 2026-09-24 17:45 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-25 17:45 UTC, when MSFT closed at $515.93, up 4.3% from $494.83 when the forecast was made. It traded between $494.71 and $519.40 along the way (-0.0% to +5.0%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-24 17:45 UTC (9/24/2026, 1:45:52 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-25 17:45 UTC (9/25/2026, 1:45:52 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-25 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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3 of the 4 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $484.00–$501.00 | -2.0% to +1.4% | 62% | $493.89 | 11.5 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $488.00–$501.50 | -1.5% to +1.2% | 54% | $495.41 | 10.9 | wrong |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $488.00–$504.00 | -1.4% to +1.8% | 58% | $494.98 | 73.4 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $489.00–$502.00 | -1.3% to +1.3% | 42% | $495.50 | 44.7 | no call |
How these models have done on MSFT over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-24 17:45 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro | 5 | — | 3 | 2 · 2 right | — | 100% (2/2) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 5 | — | 1 | 2 · 1 right | 2 · 1 right | 50% (2/4) |
| DeepSeek | 4 | — | 0 | 3 · 1 right | 1 · 1 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Grok 4.5 | 4 | — | 2 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 5 | — | 1 | 3 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/4) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 4 | — | 2 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
Every published MSFT forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-24 17:45 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Yahoo Finance showed MSFT at approximately $493.89 on September 24, down from the prior $500.59 close, while Finviz showed $496.11 and FXEmpire showed $496.25 earlier in the session. I use the newer Yahoo Finance reading as the price anchor because it was retrieved after the 2026-09-24 17:45 UTC forecast-window start. Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ ; Finviz: https://finviz.com/stock?t=MSFT ; FXEmpire: https://www.fxempire.com/stocks/msft/technical-analysis :chatgpt-content-reference{index=
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub quote via browser search shows MSFT Current Price 495.41, Open 495.07, High 496.98, Low 491.22, Previous Close 500.59, Change -5.18 / -1.03% as of Sept 24 [3918929574591237546†L17-L23]. Second source confirms intraday high $509.34 low $495.97 on Sept 24 and market cap $3.72T [8258214994927732490†L7-L10]. News scan shows mixed drivers: Jefferies reiterated Buy with $675 target naming MSFT leading AI investment [8258214994927732490†L48-L51] and Stifel upgrade to Buy on margin/AI revenue, while TradingView notes pressure from CEO Satya Nadella stock sale and broader tech sell-off [8258214994927732490†L53-L57].
(2) The current market regime as you read it: MSFT is in a choppy consolidation after strong 6-month +33.52% run [3918929574591237546†L13-L15], now slightly negative YTD in this dataset at +2.44% vs S&P +7% in 2026 per commentary [8258214994927732490†L41-L44]. Intraday action on Sept 24 is down over 1% with elevated volume, indicating near-term distribution but holding above 491 low. Volatility is low single-digit daily, so 1-day moves are dominated by market beta and news flow rather than trend break.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchoring to $495.41, using observed daily range $491.22-$496.98 from today plus recent 0.37% volatility and Fear & Greed Neutral reading mentioned in search [3918929574591237546†L17-L21]. One-day ATR-style envelope about 1.5% each side gives $488-$501.5. Bias slightly below current because close near day low and negative momentum from -1.03% decline; upper bound capped near 500.59 prior close and 496.98 high, lower bound allows retest of 491.22 low plus extension toward 488 if tech weakness continues.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings inside 1-day window (MSFT fiscal Q1 typically late October). Main catalysts are macro tech sentiment, any follow-through on insider sale headlines, and institutional 13F rebalancing news which is already public. Upstox snapshot timestamp 4:36 am IST suggests US session is the driver for Sept 24-25, so after-hours and next open will reflect absorption of today's sale disclosure.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case is Jefferies $675 target and Stifel upgrade implying AI monetization and margin strength can trigger dip-buying above $495. If broad tech rebounds or sale is deemed routine 10b5-1, price could reclaim $500.59 previous close and push toward $509.34 recent high [8258214994927732490†L7-L10], invalidating mild bearish tilt. Invalidation would be a close above $502 on heavy volume.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects low directional edge over 1 day when intraday is already down and news is mixed. Data access is live with price confirmed today, but no options flow, futures, or order book retrieved. Short horizon is noise-dominated, so range is preferred to direction, and NEUTRAL to MILD BEARISH is the honest read rather than strong conviction.
Gemini 3 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live market quotes retrieved via structured financial APIs place Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) trading at approximately $494.98 as of September 24, 2026, down slightly by 1.21% on the session with an intraday low of $491.22 and high of $509.44.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Large-cap technology equities are experiencing a minor consolidation phase amid broader macroeconomic crosscurrents, stabilizing near key technical psychological levels after testing the $490-$500 range over the past several weeks.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Utilizing current intraday volatility and typical 1-day standard deviation bands for a $495 trillion-class asset, a tight 1-day boundary between $488.00 and $504.00 captures normal daily drift while allowing for standard mean-reversion around the flat-to-mildly-positive pivot.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific earnings releases or high-impact macroeconomic data prints are scheduled within the immediate 24-hour window, leaving price action driven primarily by institutional order flow and technical rebalancing.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Persistent macro-driven selling in mega-cap growth could accelerate downside momentum, breaking support at $490 and invalidating the mild bias toward stabilization.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is kept at a moderate 58% because 1-day equity horizons are heavily prone to noise and random walk behaviors that resist directional predictability.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from CNBC, Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis and MarketWatch as of midday EDT on 2026-09-24 show MSFT trading near $495.30-$496.20, down roughly 1% from the prior close of $500.59. Day range so far is $491.22-$496.98 on moderate volume. Recent news (Stifel upgrade to Buy with $575 target on 2026-09-23, citing Azure acceleration and Copilot traction) is constructive but already reflected; no company-specific releases scheduled inside the 1-day window. Earnings remain weeks away (est. 2026-10-27/28).
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Near-term price action is consolidating after a strong 3-month rebound from the June 2026 lows. Intraday tone is mildly soft, consistent with broader tech profit-taking, while the intermediate trend remains supported by AI/cloud demand and analyst consensus (Strong Buy, average target ~$576).
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live mid-$495 level, a 1-day range of $489-$502 reflects typical large-cap daily realized volatility of ~1-1.5% plus the observed overnight gap risk. Support clusters near the session low and the $490 area; resistance sits at the prior close and the $500-$502 zone.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: None material. No earnings, major product events or economic releases are expected to drive MSFT specifically over the next 24 hours. Macro tape and sector flows remain the primary short-term drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sudden risk-off move in mega-cap tech or unexpected negative commentary on AI capex could push the stock below $489 and invalidate the neutral-to-mildly constructive bias. Conversely, a sharp bounce in the Nasdaq would favor the upper end of the range.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest because the 1-day horizon is dominated by noise rather than directional catalysts; live price data confirm the starting point but offer limited predictive edge beyond recent range-bound behavior.
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