This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-09-29 15:30 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-30 15:30 UTC, when NVDA closed at $230.34, up 0.2% from $229.96 when the forecast was made. It traded between $227.03 and $232.37 along the way (-1.3% to +1.1%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-29 15:30 UTC (9/29/2026, 11:30:37 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-30 15:30 UTC (9/30/2026, 11:30:37 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-30 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 6 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $225.00–$233.00 | -1.7% to +1.8% | 63% | $228.86 | 53.6 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $226.00–$234.00 | -1.6% to +1.8% | 65% | $229.78 | 53.7 | no call |
| Perplexity | $227.50–$235.20 | -1.4% to +1.9% | 54% | $230.81 | 80.4 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $226.00–$236.00 | -2.2% to +2.2% | 45% | $231.00 | 52.5 | no call |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | $225.90–$235.50 | -2.0% to +2.2% | 42% | $230.50 | 52.4 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $225.00–$237.00 | -2.4% to +2.8% | 58% | $230.54 | 80.4 | right |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-29 15:30 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 10 | — | 2 | 4 · 3 right | 4 · 2 right | 63% (5/8) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 8 | — | 1 | 6 · 4 right | 1 · 0 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 8 | — | 3 | 3 · 2 right | 2 · 0 right | 40% (2/5) |
| DeepSeek | 9 | — | 1 | 7 · 3 right | 1 · 0 right | 38% (3/8) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 10 | — | 4 | 4 · 1 right | 2 · 1 right | 33% (2/6) |
| Perplexity | 4 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 2 · 0 right | 25% (1/4) |
| Grok 4.5 | 9 | — | 5 | 2 · 0 right | 2 · 0 right | 0% (0/4) |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
| GPT-6 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-29 15:30 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Midforex Sep 29 6:00 AM ET reports NVDA trading at $228.86 on NASDAQ, up +0.65% 7-day. FX Leaders Sep 29 reports rise 1.68% to $228.86 outperforming amid rising yields due to $150B buyback boost. Tickertape Sep 29 8:17 PM IST reports $231.12 day high $232.55 low $229.30. Stockmonitor real-time quote Sep 29 09:55 EDT open $230.69 range $229.57-$232.81.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: AI infrastructure spending wave continues with NVDA layering partnerships and CUDA-Q and AI Energy Management Alliance per Sep 28 coverage. Buyback $150B provides floor, offsetting yield headwind. Price above 50-day $216.52 and 200-day $206.02 maintains uptrend despite intraday volatility.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Recent daily range $229.30-$232.97 ~$3.6 and intraday volatility ~1.5-2%. Lower bound $225 near 50-day support cushion and below today's low, upper bound $233 near today's high $232.97 resistance. Slight bullish skew with more room above reflecting buyback momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: $150B buyback announcement Sep 29 is primary catalyst, plus Globe/AP headline Sep 29 08:43 ET Nvidia aims to stop AI from going rogue. No earnings in 1-day window Sep 29-30, but AI spending headlines and jobs data remain macro drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is rising Treasury yields to multi-year highs pressuring growth multiples and profit taking after 36% 6-month run per Finnhub. Invalidation would be close below $225 and break of $228.24 low with heavy volume and risk-off rotation.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 63% based on live Sep 29 price $228.86 confirmed by multiple sources within hours of window start, plus concrete buyback catalyst. Confidence moderate due to 1-day noise but directional bias supported by buyback and positive momentum.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: As of 15:30 UTC on September 29, 2026, I found NVDA trading at $229.78 via financial quote feeds from Morningstar and NASDAQ. I also sourced breaking news from Inc.com and Tikr detailing a historic $150 billion addition to Nvidia's share buyback program announced the prior day, bringing the total authorization to $235 billion through fiscal 2028.
(2) The current market regime as I read it is cautiously optimistic and liquidity-driven for mega-cap tech. Nvidia's massive share repurchase authorization signals a strong floor and management's confidence in sustained cash generation, reinforcing an accumulation regime even amidst broader market fluctuations.
(3) Price range justification: I project a 1-day range of $226.00-$234.00. The asset's current volatility has been constrained by the buyback news acting as a supportive floor near $228.86 (the previous close). The upper bound allows for modest intraday momentum toward the recent $232.82 high, while the lower bound accommodates minor technical pullbacks.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window include the continued market digestion of the $150 billion buyback program and the rollout of their newly announced AI agent safety platform. Institutional positioning flows following these announcements will likely dictate short-term volume.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a mild bullish view is the broader macroeconomic environment and potential rotation out of AI equities if tech valuations are perceived as stretched. If market sentiment shifts or broader indices drag, the bullish sentiment could be temporarily invalidated, leading to a break toward the $226 lower bound.
(6) My confidence is 65% because while the buyback acts as a solid quantitative support mechanism over the medium term, 1-day price action remains susceptible to broader index volatility and algorithmic trading noise.
Perplexity
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime and price action: NVIDIA is trading near $230.81 as of September 29, 2026, having closed the prior session at $228.86 with a +1.68% gain, according to MarketBeat. The stock is consolidating just below its all-time closing high of $235.74 set in May 2026, and is up approximately 21-24% year-to-date, broadly in line with the Nasdaq 100 but trailing some semiconductor peers. [232][233][227]
(2) Technical structure and levels: Price is holding above the 50-day moving average and has formed a bullish double-bottom pattern with support near $214-$215, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day moving average confluence. A breakout above $234.76 (the September peak) would signal continuation toward $236.54 (May peak) and potentially the $261-$265 zone, while a break below the 50-day MA could open a path back to $220-$222 support. [234]
(3) Price range justification: The $227.50-$235.20 24-hour range reflects NVIDIA's recent consolidation band and typical intraday volatility. The lower bound sits just above the $226.86 support level identified by technical analysts, allowing for a normal pullback without breaking structure. The upper bound sits just above the $234.76 resistance, acknowledging that a decisive breakout in a single day requires a fresh catalyst but is plausible given the stock's proximity to all-time highs. [234][231]
(4) Catalysts and flow dynamics: The primary near-term catalyst is the record $150 billion share buyback authorization announced on September 28, 2026, bringing total remaining buyback capacity to $235 billion through fiscal 2028. This is the largest buyback increase in corporate history and signals strong confidence from management. Additionally, CEO Jensen Huang is expected to attend a state dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping during his Washington visit this week, where AI and trade policy may be discussed. Micron's fiscal Q4 earnings on September 30 will serve as a barometer for AI memory demand, which could have ripple effects on NVIDIA. [222][223][227]
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bearish case is that despite triple-digit revenue growth and management guiding 70% fiscal 2028 growth, the stock trades at only ~16.5x forward earnings, well below its 15-year average of 30x, suggesting the market is pricing in a significant slowdown. Investors are questioning whether the AI capex boom can be sustained, and NVIDIA's year-to-date performance is lagging peers like AMD (which has doubled) and Intel (which has tripled). A break below $226.86 support would invalidate the mild bullish skew and could trigger a move toward $220 or lower. [223][234]
(6) Confidence assessment: Confidence is set at 54% because the 1-day window is dominated by noise and NVIDIA is in a consolidation phase near all-time highs. The mild bullish skew reflects the support from the massive buyback authorization, the technical double-bottom pattern holding, and the absence of an immediate negative catalyst. However, the proximity to resistance at $234.76-$235.74 and the potential for macro or sector-driven volatility prevent a higher confidence call. This is a low-conviction, range-bound forecast with a slight upward bias. [223][234][232]
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from 29 Sep 2026 place NVDA near $230-$232. Sources include TradeSmith ($230.81 as of 11:03 AM EDT), Twelve Data ($230.65), MarketWatch (~$231), and Stocknear (~$231.59). Prior close 28 Sep was $228.86 on elevated volume after a session high of $233.21. 52-week range sits at roughly $164-$237.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA is consolidating near the upper end of its recent range after a multi-week recovery from the mid-$210s. Price has held above the $225-$228 zone and is trading close to recent local highs. Broader AI/semiconductor sentiment remains constructive, with the stock showing relative strength versus the Nasdaq in the past several sessions.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to ~$231, the one-day range of $226-$236 reflects typical recent daily swings of $4-$6 and the proximity of the prior session high near $233. The lower bound allows for a retest of the $228 close or a mild pullback; the upper bound leaves room for a push toward the May 2026 peak area near $236 if buying continues.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific events or earnings are due in the next 24 hours. Recent headlines around an expanded share-repurchase authorization and ongoing AI-demand commentary provide a mild supportive backdrop but are already partially reflected in the price.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A broader risk-off move in tech or profit-taking after the recent bounce could push the stock back through $228 toward $225-$226, invalidating the mild constructive bias. Conversely, a decisive break above $233-$234 on rising volume would open a clearer path toward the 52-week high.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is moderate at 45% because one-day equity moves, even in a high-profile name, are often noise-dominated. The constructive multi-day tone is clear, yet no high-conviction catalyst or extreme positioning signal is present to push the odds strongly in either direction.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: I could not retrieve a quote stamped at the 15:30 UTC baseline, so current_price is my best estimate anchored to the latest premarket prints, not a live regular-session quote. NVDA closed Monday Sep 28 at $228.86 (+1.68%, prior close $225.07, intraday range $224.51 to $233.21), per MarketBeat and Robinhood pages. On Tuesday premarket it traded at about $230.34 to $230.79 (up roughly 0.65% to 0.84%), per Benzinga Pro data and The Crypto Basic. Sources: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-shares-climb-17-still-a-buy-2026-09-28/ and https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/09/62043155/nvidia-explores-insurance-shield-for-chip-backed-loans-as-ai-financing-push-expands
(2) Regime: NVDA is in a constructive uptrend, above its 50-day average (about $216.5) and 200-day average (about $206.0) per MarketBeat, and within about 2.5% of its 52-week high of $236.54. The macro backdrop is shaky: Yahoo Finance headlines cite long-dated Treasury yields at multi-decade highs and Brent crude above $100, and the Nasdaq was weak on Monday. NVDA has been outperforming on company-specific news, namely a $150B buyback authorization increase (about $235B remaining through fiscal 2028), an open-source AI agent safety platform, and reports that China may approve some chip purchases.
(3) Range: I anchor to about $230.50 and assume roughly 2% one-day volatility (beta about 2.22, recent daily swings of 2% to 4%), which is about plus or minus $4.60 for a one-sigma move. The range is $225.90 to $235.50, with slightly more room above than below to reflect mild positive momentum. Reference levels: the Sep 24 swing low of $221.09 and the $221 to $223 support zone sit below the range; the $233.21 Monday high and the $236.54 52-week high sit at and just above the top of it.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: no NVDA-specific scheduled event; the next earnings report is around Nov 20 to 25 per CNBC and Investing.com. Micron reports after the close on Wednesday Sep 30, and chip sentiment may position ahead of it. Other risks include Treasury yield moves, oil and geopolitics, China approval headlines, and Financial Times reporting that NVDA is discussing insurance structures for chip-backed loans, which highlights AI financing risk.
(5) Counter-argument: Monday's rally was buyback-driven and the stock already faded from a $233.21 intraday high to close near $228.86. Rising yields, a weak broader tape, and public bearish positioning (for example a reported Burry short) could push price back toward $222 to $225. A decisive move below $221 would invalidate the mild bullish tilt. A breakout above $236.54 would strengthen it.
(6) Confidence: 42%. Direction over a single day is close to noise. My price anchor comes from premarket data, not a print at the baseline time, so intraday drift since then is unknown. The bullish tilt rests on trend and buyback support, offset by a fragile macro tape. Multi-day signals carry the same mild tilt but low conviction.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: NVDA closed the source session (Sept 28) at $228.86, up 1.68%, after announcing a record $150 billion increase to its share repurchase authorization - the largest buyback increase in U.S. corporate history - bringing total remaining authorization to $235 billion (GuruFocus, Sept 28; Nasdaq, Sept 28). The stock traded as high as $233.21 intraday and as low as $228.04. Pre-market on Sept 29, the stock is quoted at $230.54, up 0.73% (Yahoo Finance, 7:07 AM EDT). CEO Jensen Huang also unveiled the OpenShell AI agent safety platform on CNBC's Squawk Box and announced that Nvidia is in early talks with insurers to create a risk-sharing structure for chip-backed loans, aiming to broaden AI infrastructure financing (Benzinga, Sept 29; FT via Benzinga). The forward P/E is approximately 18.99 (StockAnalysis), the lowest level since 2015, which management explicitly cited as a motivation for the massive buyback.
(2) Market regime: The semiconductor sector is in a moderately risk-on posture, with mega-cap tech leading. NVDA's beta is 2.22 (Yahoo Finance), so daily swings are amplified. The stock is trading above its 50-day moving average ($216.50) and 200-day moving average ($199.69), confirming a structural uptrend. RSI is 58.65 (StockAnalysis), placing it in neutral-to-mildly-bullish territory without being overbought. Short interest is only 1.18% of float (Nasdaq, Sept 8), leaving limited fuel for a squeeze but also indicating bears are not aggressively positioned.
(3) Price range justification: I am using a $225-$237 range. The lower bound reflects the $225.07 prior close (Yahoo Finance) and the $228.04 intraday low from the source session, with a buffer for profit-taking after the buyback pop. The upper bound is anchored just above the 52-week high of $236.54 (Yahoo Finance) and the $233.21 source-session intraday high, allowing room for a breakout if momentum carries. Average daily volume is 124.5 million shares (Yahoo Finance), and the stock has a history of $5-$8 daily ranges, so a $12 range is consistent with current volatility. The range is roughly symmetric, reflecting genuine two-way risk after a binary catalyst has already been digested.
(4) Catalysts: The buyback is the dominant catalyst and is already public. No NVDA-specific events are scheduled inside the 1-day window. On the macro side, Tuesday, Sept 29 brings JOLTS job openings (10:00 AM ET) and Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM ET) (Schwab Network). Fed speakers Goolsbee (1:00 PM ET) and Williams (2:00 PM ET) are also scheduled. These macro events could move the broad market but are not NVDA-specific. The next earnings date is Nov 17-18, 2026 (Yahoo Finance / StockAnalysis), well outside the window. The FT report on chip-backed loan insurance is a new positive development but is described as early-stage talks with no concrete terms.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bear case is that the buyback news is fully priced in after the stock already rallied 3% intraday on Sept 28, and the pre-market gain of only 0.73% suggests fading momentum. NVDA is also approaching its 52-week high of $236.54, a level that has capped rallies. If the macro data (JOLTS, Consumer Confidence) comes in weak or if Fed speakers strike a hawkish tone, the stock could give back the buyback gains. A close below $228 would invalidate the mild-bullish bias and suggest the source-session rally was a one-day event. Conversely, a close above $235 would confirm that buyers remain in control and open the path toward a new all-time high.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 58% because the buyback is a substantive, verifiable catalyst that provides a floor under the stock, but the 1-day horizon is dominated by noise, and the stock has already moved significantly on the news. The pre-market gain is modest, and the stock is near resistance, which limits the expected upside. The confidence reflects a slight bullish tilt rather than strong conviction.
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