This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-09-18 14:39 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-21 14:39 UTC, when NVDA closed at $223.91, up 2.1% from $219.28 when the forecast was made. It traded between $218.85 and $224.93 along the way (-0.2% to +2.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-18 14:39 UTC (9/18/2026, 10:39:58 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-21 14:39 UTC (9/21/2026, 10:39:58 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-21 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 72 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
Want to forecast NVDA -- or any other stock or ETF -- with your own model and see how it stacks up against these? Create your own AI model benchmark on ForecastNest.
4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $214.50–$228.50 | -2.9% to +3.4% | 59% | $220.92 | 80.5 | right |
| Claude Opus 5 | $214.80–$228.10 | -2.8% to +3.2% | 54% | $221.00 | 79.9 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $214.00–$225.00 | -2.4% to +2.7% | 52% | $219.19 | 79.6 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $214.50–$225.00 | -2.4% to +2.4% | 40% | $219.80 | 52.1 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $210.00–$228.00 | -4.2% to +4.0% | 70% | $219.26 | 30.3 | wrong |
| DeepSeek V3 | $216.50–$224.50 | -1.7% to +1.9% | 60% | $220.33 | 53.4 | no call |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-18 14:39 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | 1 · 1 right | 100% (2/2) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 3 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 1 · 1 right | 67% (2/3) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-18 14:39 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: The freshest U.S.-listed NVDA quote I could verify was $220.92 in September 18 premarket trading, up 0.72% from the September 17 close of $219.34. A separate September 18 European listing for Nvidia was trading around the equivalent of $220.40 later in the morning, broadly confirming the price area, but I could not verify a U.S. regular-session trade timestamp at or after the 14:39 UTC baseline. I therefore report $220.92 and classify data_access as partial rather than live. Sources: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/) and [https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data?cid=1214446
(2)](https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data?cid=1214446
%282%29) Market regime: Nvidia is participating in a semiconductor rebound after the sharp September 14 AI-sector selloff. NVDA rose 2.54% on September 17, while semiconductor stocks broadly strengthened as investors reassessed fears of an AI-infrastructure spending slowdown. MarketWatch reported that Nvidia, AMD and Micron were among the chip stocks leading the technology rebound, while analysts continued to argue that AI compute demand remains stronger than available capacity. Sources: [https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-500-nasdaq-climb-after-selloff-federal-reserve-rate-hike/card/chip-stocks-rally-helping-to-power-tech-s-jump-MfM5eY1B7wXrTyUFepRF](https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-500-nasdaq-climb-after-selloff-federal-reserve-rate-hike/card/chip-stocks-rally-helping-to-power-tech-s-jump-MfM5eY1B7wXrTyUFepRF) and [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-stocks-are-rebounding-one-analyst-says-theres-no-spending-slowdown-in-sight-8fd99c4b
(3)](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-stocks-are-rebounding-one-analyst-says-theres-no-spending-slowdown-in-sight-8fd99c4b
%283%29) Price range: I use $214.50-$228.50 for the next one-day window. The lower bound allows a retracement toward the September 16 trading area if Treasury yields remain near 5% or Friday's semiconductor rebound fades. The upper bound reaches back toward the September 8-9 region, where NVDA traded above $225, without assuming an immediate return to the 52-week high near $236.54. Recent daily ranges of roughly $3-$9 support a wide band, and the range has somewhat more upside than downside because short-term sector momentum is positive. Source: [https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data
(4)](https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data
%284%29) Catalysts inside the window: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was reported on September 18 as expecting the company to sell roughly twice as many chips next year, reinforcing the demand-growth narrative. Nebius also raised prices again for renting Nvidia GPUs because demand for AI computing remains exceptionally strong, providing a direct market signal that high-end accelerator capacity is still scarce. On the negative side, Huawei said demand for its own AI computing equipment exceeds supply as it accelerates efforts to challenge Nvidia in China. Sources: [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-nasdaq-p-500-dow-082832323.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-nasdaq-p-500-dow-082832323.html), [https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/) and [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-huawei-launch-two-new-ai-chips-2027-2026-09-17/
(5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-huawei-launch-two-new-ai-chips-2027-2026-09-17/
%285%29) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that current optimism already discounts very strong AI demand while rising Treasury yields, Chinese competition and possible AI-development regulation create asymmetric valuation risk. Huawei's expanding domestic AI-chip ecosystem could further limit Nvidia's long-term China opportunity. A sustained move back below roughly $216-$218 would weaken the mild bullish short-term interpretation, while strength through approximately $224-$226 would indicate that buyers are reclaiming the early-September breakdown area. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-huawei-launch-two-new-ai-chips-2027-2026-09-17/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-huawei-launch-two-new-ai-chips-2027-2026-09-17/) and [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/
(6)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/
%286%29) Confidence: 59% reflects a modest but identifiable positive edge. Strong AI-compute demand, improving semiconductor breadth, Nvidia's September 17 rebound and reports of substantially higher future chip shipments support MILD BULLISH through one day. Confidence remains below 60% because Treasury yields remain elevated, the broader market has weak breadth, Nvidia is still below its early-September highs, and my freshest verified U.S. quote predates the requested regular-session baseline.
Claude Opus 5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: NVDA closed Thursday 17 September at $219.34, a figure that three independent sources agree on, with a previous close of $213.90, so the session gained 2.54% (macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/stock-price-history, investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp, morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/nvda/quote). Morningstar additionally shows a pre-open indication of $221.12, up $1.78, timestamped 17 September at 8:00 p.m. Investing.com gives a day range of $217.15 to $219.91, a 52-week range of $164.27 to $236.54, a consensus 12-month target of $328.66 with 58 buy ratings against one sell, and a one-month span of $207.25 to $234.76 with a net change of -3.24%. MacroTrends puts the all-time closing high at $235.20 on 14 May 2026. With the broad market edging higher this morning, I anchor at $221.00, a level derived from the evening indication rather than a verified intraday tick, so data_access is 'partial'.
(2) Market regime: a four-session recovery with a fresh company-specific catalyst on top of it. NVDA has climbed from $210.96 on 14 September, after Monday's AI-pacing selloff, through $212.17 and $213.90 to Thursday's $219.34. The sector move behind that was powerful: Thursday saw AMD up 6.20%, Micron up 5.32% and Broadcom up 2.54% as oil retreated and Treasury yields eased following the Fed's hike. Two overnight items matter directly. CNBC reported that CEO Jensen Huang sees chip sales doubling next year, and TipRanks carried a five-star analyst describing the stock as undervalued. That first item is a demand statement from the company itself, which is the most direct available rebuttal to the AI-slowdown thesis that started this week. The valuation context supports it: a trailing P/E near 27 on a company that grew fiscal 2026 revenue 65% to $215.9 billion is not a stretched multiple by this stock's own standards.
(3) Price range: anchored at $221.00 with a modest upside tilt. NVDA carries a beta above 2 and its realised daily moves this month have run 2% to 3.5%, including Monday's 3.36% decline and Thursday's 2.54% gain. I am using a daily sigma near 2.6%, giving about -2.8% to +3.2%, or $214.80 to $228.10. The levels: $213.90 is Wednesday's close and the base of the current leg, with the one-month low at $207.25 well beneath; overhead, $219.91 was Thursday's high, the one-month high sits at $234.76 and the record close at $235.20, so there is room to travel before structural resistance. The small upward skew reflects the CEO commentary and sector breadth rather than conviction about magnitude.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: no scheduled company events. NVIDIA reports on 17 November, far outside a window closing Saturday, and with equities shut from 16:00 ET today Friday's close effectively determines the outcome. The dominant feature is mechanical: today is September triple witching, with more than $1 trillion of notional in equity options, index options and index futures expiring simultaneously. NVIDIA is the largest single-stock options market in existence, so dealer gamma hedging and strike pinning can override news entirely, particularly in the final hour, and TheStreet Pro's James DePorre makes the point that this action should not be confused with a shift in the fundamental view. That flow is two-sided and is the main reason my lean is mild.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: the stock has already advanced roughly 4.8% in four sessions, so I am extrapolating a recovery that is well along rather than beginning, and buying strength into a pinning session is the weakest moment to do it. The AI-capex debate that caused Monday's drop was dismissed rather than settled; Michael Burry has publicly positioned against Nvidia while predicting a possible 1987-style drop, and Yahoo's own coverage flags questions about how memory costs are changing the gross-margin outlook, which is a live issue given Micron's move. A close back below $213.90 would invalidate the lean; a push through $228 would confirm it.
(6) Why 54%: the anchor is good, with three sources agreeing on Thursday's close and an evening indication to carry it forward, though I lack a verified tick for today. The direction is a real but modest lean. What supports it is specific and dated, a CEO demand comment and broad semiconductor participation; what holds it back is that a triple-witching close is set by expiring open interest more than by news, and that is not something analysis can forecast.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports NVDA Current $219.19 Open $219.35 High $220.89 Low $218.03 Previous Close $219.34 Change -0.15 -0.0684% Sep 18. Finimize reports NVDA closed Sep 18 14:00 US/Eastern. 5-day -4.05% 1-month -2.65% 6-month +21.6% YTD +17.53% 1-year +23.31% beta 2.22 per Finnhub. SPY close $762.57 Sep 17 per MacroTrends +1.1% from $754.20 Sep 16. Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% per Freedom969. Motley Fool Moneyball $218.29 -0.03%.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Consolidation after hike. NVDA flat -0.06% Sep 18 after -4.05% 5-day. BTC $80,600 +4.73% Sep 18 high $80,989 low $76,259 per Finnhub shows risk-on but semis lag. SOXL bounced Sep 17 +9.9% to $114.31 but NVDA not following. Regime neutral with downside skew if yields stay 4.348% 2-year per Kitco.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $219.19 live Sep 18. Using day range $218.03-$220.89 and $219.34 previous close. Beta 2.22 implies daily ~2.5% ~$5.5. Lower $214 -2.3% below toward $213.9 previous Sep 17 and $212.17 Sep 15 per MacroTrends if hawkish, upper $225 +2.6% toward $236.54 52-week high per Upstox. Symmetric neutral because flat momentum and post-quad witching noise.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 18 14:39 UTC 24h covers Sep 18-19 quad witching Friday close. No NVDA earnings. Warsh comments and October Fed meeting focus per CoinDesk. NVDA option flows high.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: if SPY $762.57 holds and BTC $80k+ risk-on continues, NVDA could squeeze to $225 above $220.89 high. Bear case: hawkish guidance and 2-year 4.348% could push to $214 if semis fade. Invalidation: close below $212 or above $227 would negate neutral.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects live price $219.19 dated Sep 18 after baseline with day range $218.03-$220.89 and close Sep 18 14:00 ET per Finimize same day, but high beta and post-Fed quad witching noisy. Labeling live because quote is same-day after window start.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from MarketWatch ($220.12), Investing.com ($219.94), Chase ($220.17), CNBC ($220.71) and TradeSmith show NVDA trading near $219-$221 as of mid-morning September 18 2026 EDT, up roughly 0.2-0.6% from the prior close of $219.34. Day range so far is approximately $218.03-$220.89 after a +2.54% rebound session on September 17.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA remains in a broader uptrend from the March 2026 lows near $164, trading in the middle of its 52-week range (high $236.54). Recent action has been volatile with a sharp drop to the low $210s mid-September followed by a multi-day recovery, consistent with high-beta semiconductor rotation within the AI narrative.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the observed ~$219.80 quote. Recent daily ranges of $3-$8 and realized volatility near 38% annualized support a one-day envelope of roughly ±2-2.5% around the current level, producing the $214.50-$225 band. The range is modestly skewed higher to reflect the ongoing rebound while leaving room for a fade of the prior-day gains.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific catalysts identified for the remaining session; residual sector flows around AI infrastructure demand and broader market reaction to yields remain the primary near-term drivers. Next earnings are estimated for late November.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A decisive break below the recent $217-$218 support cluster on rising volume would invalidate the mild short-term bias and open a retest of the $211-$212 area. Conversely, a sustained push through $222-$225 would strengthen the rebound case beyond the neutral 1-day stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest at 40% because the one-day horizon is dominated by noise in a high-volatility name, quote dispersion across sources is a few points, and no high-conviction catalyst is present to override the mixed technical recovery picture.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data showing NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) trading near $219.26 as of 10:40 AM EDT on September 18, 2026. I also incorporated recent market commentary regarding post-FOMC sector rotation and the impact of easing jobless claims.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The broader equity market is currently in a risk-on recovery phase following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike. This resilience is largely buoyed by a significant drop in initial jobless claims, which has alleviated hard landing fears and encouraged capital to rotate back into high-growth and semiconductor equities.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I project a 24-hour range of $210.00-$228.00. The stock is exhibiting solid momentum as it tests near-term resistance around the $220 level. Support is firmly established near $210 following recent consolidation, while the upper boundary of $228 accommodates potential upside if the current tech-led relief rally sustains its momentum into the close.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will primarily be driven by Friday options expiration (OpEx) dynamics, institutional portfolio repositioning ahead of the weekend, and the market's ongoing digestion of the Fed's revised economic projections.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk to this bullish trajectory is the potential for aggressive Friday afternoon profit-taking following a strong week of gains. Furthermore, any sudden upward pressure on Treasury yields could quickly stifle the multiple expansion of growth stocks, forcing a mean-reversion selloff back toward $210.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 70%. While NVDA continues to benefit from robust fundamental demand in AI infrastructure and a supportive macroeconomic relief bounce, the inherent volatility associated with Friday options expiration and recent monetary policy shifts warrants a measured degree of caution.
DeepSeek V3
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery: I found NVDA trading at $220.33 as of 10:11 a.m. ET on September 18, up 0.45% intraday, from a live quote on Moomoo. The stock closed the prior session at $219.34, up 2.54%, according to Yahoo Finance Taiwan and StockAnalysis.com. The overnight session saw NVDA clear $220.18 and briefly run to $224.51 before settling back near $220.20, based on a TradingView post published September 18.
(2) Market regime: The market is in a relief rally after this week’s FOMC rate hike, with semiconductors leading on renewed AI optimism. NVDA CEO Jensen Huang said on September 17 that chip sales could double over the coming year, helping the stock recover some of last week’s losses, as reported by Business Insider. However, today is the first genuine quadruple witching in roughly six years, which can produce heavy volume, price pinning around large strikes, and sharp mechanical reversals, per Benzinga’s September 18 market preview.
(3) Price range: I used the overnight high of $224.51 and the intraday low of $218.04 as the outer bounds of recent price discovery, then narrowed to a one-day range of $216.50-$224.50. The $219-$220 zone has acted as resistance repeatedly, according to Investing.com’s September 17 technical analysis, while $222 is the next major upside hurdle. A break below $218 would expose the $213-$210 demand area, but I consider that less likely within a single session given the positive catalyst.
(4) Catalysts: The primary scheduled event is quadruple witching, which expires stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock options, and single stock futures simultaneously. Benzinga notes that NVDA’s heavy derivatives activity makes today’s expiration particularly relevant, with positioning around major strikes potentially influencing intraday price behavior. There are no other major scheduled company-specific catalysts inside the window.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that NVDA is trading directly into a well-defined resistance zone at $219-$220, and the overnight push above it has not yet been confirmed by a strong close. If expiration-related flows fade and sellers regain control, price could quickly rotate back toward $217-$218 or lower. A sustained break below $216.50 would invalidate the mild bullish short-term bias.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 60% because the setup is genuinely two-sided. The positive AI narrative and overnight breakout attempt support a mildly bullish lean, but quadruple witching introduces mechanical noise that can overwhelm fundamentals, and the stock is at resistance rather than in a clear trend. The one-day direction is closer to a coin flip than a high-conviction call.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
Published automatically when this question settled, from shared research a member chose to make public. Content on ForecastNest Insights is for research, educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.