This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-09-30 14:52 UTC. The window closed 2026-10-01 14:52 UTC, when NVDA closed at $230.03, down 0.2% from $230.47 when the forecast was made. It traded between $228.19 and $231.91 along the way (-1.0% to +0.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-30 14:52 UTC (9/30/2026, 10:52:38 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-10-01 14:52 UTC (10/1/2026, 10:52:38 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-10-01 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 7 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Claude Sonnet 5.5 and DeepSeek V3 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $227.50–$234.80 | -1.4% to +1.8% | 58% | $230.76 | 31.0 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $227.00–$235.00 | -1.6% to +1.9% | 75% | $230.58 | 31.0 | wrong |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | $221.00–$233.00 | -2.6% to +2.6% | 40% | $227.00 | 34.5 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $226.50–$235.00 | -1.8% to +1.9% | 42% | $230.70 | 52.6 | no call |
| DeepSeek V3 | $224.00–$232.00 | -1.4% to +2.1% | 60% | $227.21 | 30.7 | wrong |
| GPT-6 | $225.50–$237.00 | -2.2% to +2.8% | 55% | $230.53 | 42.0 | wrong |
| Perplexity | $225.00–$235.00 | -2.4% to +2.0% | 58% | $230.42 | 80.4 | right |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-30 14:52 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 8 | — | 1 | 6 · 4 right | 1 · 0 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 11 | — | 2 | 5 · 3 right | 4 · 2 right | 56% (5/9) |
| Perplexity | 5 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 3 · 1 right | 40% (2/5) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 8 | — | 3 | 3 · 2 right | 2 · 0 right | 40% (2/5) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 10 | — | 1 | 8 · 3 right | 1 · 0 right | 33% (3/9) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 11 | — | 4 | 5 · 1 right | 2 · 1 right | 29% (2/7) |
| Grok 4.5 | 10 | — | 6 | 2 · 0 right | 2 · 0 right | 0% (0/4) |
| GPT-6 | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/2) |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 3 | — | 2 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-30 14:52 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub market data as of Sep 30 2026 shows Current Price 230.76, Open 229.27, High 232.37, Low 228.79, Previous Close 227.21, Change +3.55 (+1.56%). TradingView snapshot confirms flat early trade Sep 30 with ~+0.35% premarket. News headlines dated Sep 30 2026: NVIDIA board approved $150B share repurchase expansion, total remaining capacity ~$235B, reported by American Banking News and FX Leaders. Additional catalyst: data-center digital twin deal and FT report on early talks with insurers about chip-backed AI loans to de-risk financing.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term momentum positive after +3% September MTD, tracking third straight monthly gain in 2026. Buyback announcement provides psychological floor and offsets valuation concerns at $5.5T market cap. 5-day return +0.83% and 1-month +4.52% from Finnhub indicate steady grind, not parabolic chase. Broader AI infrastructure demand remains driver from FY27 Q2 record earnings referenced in Finbold coverage.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at 230.76, intraday range today already 3.58 dollars (228.79-232.37). Using recent realized daily volatility ~1.5-2% and ATR ~4-5 dollars. For 1-day window, upside capped near 234.80 which aligns just below reported all-time high region of 236.37 noted by LiteFinance on May 14 2026 and near $235 ceiling discussed by Blockchain.news analysis Sep 30. Downside 227.50 aligns with previous close 227.21 and premarket support. Asymmetric skew slightly up due to buyback bid but range not centered to reflect mild bullish bias.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings inside 1-day window. Catalysts are ongoing buyback headline absorption, any follow-through on insurance financing story from FT, and end-of-quarter monthly close positioning. No Fed decision or NVDA-specific filing scheduled for Oct 1 in news search. Intraday driver will be market close flows for September monthly candle.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Profit-taking into month-end after third green month could push back toward 227.21 previous close or lower. High valuation and crowded positioning make stock vulnerable to any risk-off in mega-cap tech or negative read-through from Alphabet debt commentary mentioned in Stockwatch Sep 30. Invalidation would be a break below 228.79 low of day on heavy volume without buyback support stepping in.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% reflects live price retrieval (Finnhub current price dated Sep 30) but conflicting snapshots across sources (LiteFinance 227.19, Blockchain.news 228.52, TrendEdge 227.21) add noise to exact anchor. 1-day direction in large-cap is close to noise, so even with positive momentum, high uncertainty remains. Stating neutral would also be defensible; mild bullish reflects buyback and monthly win streak but not strong conviction.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) I retrieved live market data for NVIDIA (NVDA) on September 30, 2026, showing the stock trading near $230.58. Recent fundamental news from September 28 highlights a historic $150 billion share repurchase authorization, alongside a $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face earlier in the month.
(2) The current market regime for NVDA is heavily supported by corporate capital returns and ongoing AI infrastructure expansion. The massive buyback authorization acts as a structural bid, signaling management's confidence and providing a floor during broader market pullbacks. The short-term market structure is constructive, having recently bounced off the $221-$223 support zone.
(3) Over a 1-day window, I expect price action to consolidate the recent buyback-driven gains while maintaining an upward bias. I project a price range of $227.00-$235.00. The lower bound aligns with established intraday support near $227, while the upper bound tests the recent high of $233.21 and allows for minor momentum continuation.
(4) Within the next 24 hours, the primary driver will be the continued market digestion of the record $150 billion buyback program and ongoing integration narratives surrounding the Open Agent safety platform and Hugging Face. No major corporate earnings are scheduled for NVDA in this immediate 1-day timeframe.
(5) The strongest counter-argument is short-term exhaustion or profit-taking following the initial surge from the buyback news. Additionally, significant put option activity expiring in December was recently flagged, indicating some participants are hedging against overvaluation. A break below $227 support would invalidate the immediate bullish setup.
(6) My confidence is 75% because the fundamental catalyst (the largest corporate buyback in history) provides a robust tailwind, and the technical structure is holding higher lows. However, forecasting a strict 1-day window inherently carries intraday market noise that caps absolute certainty.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: Benzinga (Sept 29, 2026) reports NVDA gained 1.68% on Monday Sept 28 to close at $228.86 after Nvidia announced a $150B buyback increase, and it also describes a reversal on Tuesday. I could not find a confirmed Tuesday close or a live quote dated after 14:52 UTC on Sept 30. Other pages I saw show $227.21 (TradingView, CNN) and $228.35 (Robinhood), but they were undated or a few days old. My $227 is therefore an estimate anchored to those quotes and to the Tuesday reversal, not a live print. Robinhood lists a 52-week range of $164.27 to $236.54.
(2) Market regime: NVDA is in a broad uptrend and trades close to its 52-week high, so it is consolidating near highs rather than trending hard. Tradingpedia (Sept 29) puts support near $220.46 and resistance near $238.58. It also reports the Bollinger upper band at $232.62, the middle band at $221.93 and the lower band at $211.23, with MACD momentum flat. CNBC reports the FY2028 P/E is about 14.5, and the $150B buyback lifts remaining capacity to about $235B. The buyback rally faded on Tuesday, which suggests buyers are already partly pricing in the news.
(3) Price range justification: I assume a one-day move of roughly 2% either way, which is about $4.50 on a $227 base. That gives $221 to $233. The lower end sits near the $220.46 support and the middle Bollinger band. The upper end sits just above the upper band at $232.62 and stops short of the $236.54 52-week high. I have deliberately placed the range close to symmetric because I see no clear intraday directional edge.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: Yahoo Finance's August preview article lists Micron's fiscal-quarter earnings for Sept 30, 2026. I did not confirm the time of the release, but if it lands after the close it would move AI-hardware sentiment during the forecast window, and NVDA usually trades in sympathy with Micron's read on memory demand. Other items are the fading buyback impulse, Nvidia's Open Agent Safety Platform news, reports of Nvidia talking with insurers about financing for smaller AI clouds, and China competition headlines (DeepSeek and Huawei).
(5) Strongest counter-argument: the buyback and the low forward multiple could bring in fresh buyers and push the stock through the $232 to $236 zone toward a record high. The opposite risk is that the Tuesday reversal continues into a mean reversion toward the $222 middle band, or lower if Micron disappoints. A clean move outside $221 to $233 on heavy volume would invalidate my neutral one-day view. The 7-day and 30-day mild bullish leans rest only on the uptrend and buyback support, and I hold them loosely.
(6) Why confidence is 40%: I could not verify a live price, so the baseline itself is uncertain by roughly $1 to $2. One-day equity direction is close to a coin flip, and a Micron print inside the window adds event variance. The neutral 1-day call and the fairly wide range reflect that.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance (as of ~10:50 AM EDT / ~14:50 UTC on 30 Sep 2026) show NVDA at $230.70, up ~1.54% from the prior close of $227.21 on 29 Sep. Day range so far is $228.80-$232.37; 52-week range $164.27-$236.54. Recent catalysts include NVIDIA’s 28 Sep announcement of a record $150 billion increase to its share-repurchase authorization (remaining capacity now $235 billion through FY2028), reported across NVIDIA Newsroom, CNBC, NYT, and Reuters. Next earnings are estimated for 17-18 Nov 2026. Broader market context from Bloomberg/Reuters/CNBC: cooler-than-expected August PCE inflation data on 30 Sep eased Treasury yields from multi-decade highs, supporting a modest equity rebound after a soft prior session.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term price action is constructive but not decisive. The stock rebounded from the prior close after the buyback news and is trading near the upper end of its recent multi-week range while remaining below the May 2026 high near $236.54. Macro backdrop has shifted from yield-driven pressure to mild relief on softer inflation readings. Sector momentum in semiconductors remains supported by ongoing AI infrastructure spending, though valuation compression (forward P/E near multi-year lows relative to growth) has tempered upside enthusiasm.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live $230.70 quote. Recent daily ranges have been roughly $4-6; ATR-implied one-day moves are consistent with a $226.50-$235.00 band. The lower bound sits near the prior close and intraday support around $227-$228; the upper bound approaches the recent high of $232-$233 and leaves room toward the 52-week high without requiring a breakout. The range is modestly skewed higher given the buyback support and macro relief, but not aggressively so given the one-day horizon and residual yield sensitivity.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific events inside the 1-day window. Market focus remains on the residual impact of the 30 Sep PCE print, any follow-through on Treasury yields, and Micron earnings (after the close) as a semiconductor-sector proxy. The large buyback authorization provides ongoing technical support but is multi-year in nature and already digested into the prior session’s move.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A renewed spike in long-term yields or a sharp risk-off move in the broader market could push NVDA back toward or below the prior close of $227, invalidating the mild upward bias. Conversely, an unexpected breakout above $233-$235 on volume would strengthen the case for higher levels. The one-day horizon is inherently noisy; directionality is weak.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest (42%) because the forecast window is only one trading day, price action remains range-bound near recent highs, and macro data (PCE) has already been released. Live quotes and news flow are current, but short-horizon equity moves are dominated by noise rather than durable signals.
DeepSeek V3
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: I retrieved the closing price for NVDA on September 29, 2026, of $227.21 from Yahoo Finance, which also shows a pre-market indication of $227.72 on September 30. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $240.99 and its all-time high of $236.54, according to eToro and Barron's. Recent news includes a $150 billion increase to the share-repurchase authorization, bringing total buyback capacity to $235 billion through fiscal 2028, as reported by NVIDIA's newsroom and covered by Yahoo Finance. Separately, multiple outlets including Yonhap and RTHK report that China is considering allowing Alibaba and ByteDance to purchase NVIDIA's RTX Pro 5500 AI chips, potentially opening a new demand channel. Analyst consensus remains strongly positive, with a 'Strong Buy' rating and an average projected level of $327.70 from 61 analysts per stockanalysis.com.
(2) Current market regime: The semiconductor sector is showing strength, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rising 1.32% on September 29, even as broader market indices fell for a second straight day on surging Treasury yields, according to fnnews. NVDA itself declined 0.72% on September 29, underperforming the SOX, which suggests some stock-specific profit-taking after the buyback announcement. The technical picture is mixed: Barron's notes that the 10-day simple moving average ($222.80) has just crossed above the 20-day SMA ($222.32), a bullish signal, but FxPro identifies resistance at $233.00 and Investing.com notes the stock is trading inside a rising channel that previously topped out near $235 before dropping toward $218.
(3) Price range justification: I am using a one-day range of $224.00 to $232.00. The lower bound is anchored near the September 29 low of $227.03 and the 20-day SMA of $222.32, with $224 representing a modest pullback level that has held as intraday support in recent sessions (Yahoo Finance historical data). The upper bound is set just below the identified resistance at $233.00 (FxPro) and the all-time high of $236.54 (Barron's). Given an average daily true range of roughly $6-$8 over the past week, a move of this magnitude is consistent with recent volatility. The range is slightly skewed upward because the buyback and China news provide a modest positive bias, but the proximity to resistance limits the upside.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings release is scheduled within the one-day window; NVIDIA's next confirmed earnings date is November 25, 2026, per TipRanks. The primary near-term catalyst is the ongoing market reaction to the $150 billion buyback authorization announced on September 28, which management explicitly framed as reflecting confidence in AI-driven free cash flow growth (NVIDIA newsroom). Additionally, news that China may approve purchases of the RTX Pro 5500 could continue to develop, with reports suggesting shipments could begin in late December, according to Yonhap Infomax. Any further headlines on China trade policy or AI-chip export rules would be relevant.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bearish argument is that NVDA has repeatedly failed to break through the $233-$236 zone in recent weeks, and a rising channel that previously topped out near $235 led to a drop toward $218 (Investing.com). If the stock rejects resistance again on September 30, it could retest the $222-$224 support area. My call would be invalidated if NVDA closes below $224 on September 30, which would suggest the bullish SMA crossover has failed and the channel breakdown is underway. Conversely, a clean break above $233 on strong volume would reinforce the bullish thesis and likely push the stock toward its record high.
(6) Why confidence is 60%: The confidence level reflects a moderate degree of conviction. The buyback and China news are genuinely positive, and the technical crossover is constructive, but the stock is trading just below a well-defined resistance level and recently underperformed the broader semiconductor index. With a one-day forecast horizon, idiosyncratic noise and macro factors such as Treasury yields (which pressured equities on September 29 per fnnews) can easily dominate. I am therefore modestly bullish but not highly confident, and the 60% figure reflects that balance.
GPT-6
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Findings and price: Stock Analysis displayed NVIDIA at $230.53 at 15:15 UTC on September 30, approximately ten minutes before this answer: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/. The quote was labeled real-time. I could not retrieve the exact 14:52 UTC trade, so current_price is a verified later intraday proxy rather than an exact reconstruction. Reuters reported the September 28 increase in repurchase authorization: https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-adds-150-billion-existing-share-repurchase-plan-2026-09-28/.
(2) Market regime: The near-term bias is mildly positive because NVIDIA has recovered above its previous close during today's technology advance. However, software was outperforming semiconductors in the morning, indicating uneven participation rather than a uniformly strong chip rally: https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-093026/card/software-and-mag-7-stocks-are-picking-up-the-slack-for-chips-WnYAzTuRfwBKXNARBsmw. The repurchase authorization supports sentiment but does not establish how much stock will actually be repurchased during this window.
(3) Range justification: The $225.50-$237.00 band allows approximately 2.2% downside and 2.8% upside from $230.53, expressing a modest bullish skew. Stock Analysis records September 29's range as $227.03-$232.82 and September 28's as $228.04-$233.21: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/history/. Those roughly $5-$6 daily spans support a wider band across an overnight catalyst. The $232.82-$233.21 recent highs are nearby resistance references; the $227 area marks the previous session's lower boundary. The quote page reports a 52-week high of $236.54, close to the forecast's upper bound.
(4) Catalysts: Micron's earnings conference call is officially scheduled for September 30 at 20:30 UTC, inside the window ending October 1 at 14:52 UTC: https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-Technology-to-Report-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-Results-on-September-30-2026/default.aspx. Its discussion of AI memory demand could influence NVIDIA sentiment, although that connection is an inference and the results are unknown. The repurchase announcement has already occurred; continued interpretation is a possible catalyst, not a new scheduled event. No NVIDIA-specific scheduled release inside the window was verified.
(5) Counterargument and invalidation: Favorable capital-return news may already be reflected in the price, while weaker semiconductor participation could foreshadow renewed selling. A retreat below the previous session's approximately $227 low would undermine the mild bullish thesis. Conversely, sustained strength above the recent $233 area would support it. Disappointing AI-demand commentary from Micron could overwhelm the favorable company narrative.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 55% because the price recovery and capital-return announcement offer a modest positive edge, but resistance is nearby and an overnight industry event can move sentiment in either direction. The exact baseline trade, options-implied volatility and a verified intraday volume profile were unavailable. This is a judgmental plausible trading range, not a calibrated probability interval; the neutral one-hour signal reflects insufficient evidence for immediate continuation.
Perplexity
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: NVIDIA was quoted at $230.42 at 11:18:02 a.m. EDT on September 30, 2026, up $3.21, or 1.41%, from the prior close of $227.21. The reported session range was approximately $227.20-$231.43, making $230.42 the closest available live price to the requested window start.
(2) Market regime: The immediate regime is constructive because NVDA is rebounding from the prior session's $227.21 close and trading near the upper part of the day's range. The broader backdrop remains favorable for AI infrastructure: NVIDIA received authorization for an additional $150 billion share repurchase, bringing total remaining authorization to approximately $235 billion through fiscal 2028, according to MarketBeat's September 30 report. However, the stock is close to its reported 52-week high of $236.54, so overhead resistance and profit-taking risk are material.
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $225-$235. The lower bound allows for a retracement toward the prior close and the September 29 intraday low near $227.03, with additional room for volatility around a high-beta semiconductor name. The upper bound is just below the reported 52-week high near $236.54 and the current session high near $231.43, allowing continuation without assuming an immediate breakout.
(4) Catalysts: No company earnings release was identified inside this one-day window. NVIDIA's most recent fiscal Q2 FY27 results were scheduled for August 26, 2026, while the next earnings date shown by Yahoo Finance is November 17, 2026. Near-term price sensitivity is therefore more likely to come from AI-capex headlines, U.S. policy developments and competitive news, including reports that DeepSeek partnered with Huawei on chip-programming tools and that NVIDIA expanded its buyback authorization.
(5) Counter-argument: The principal bearish risk is that the rebound is driven by positioning and buyback sentiment rather than fresh earnings information. Reuters-reported coverage cited a DeepSeek-Huawei collaboration that could reduce reliance on NVIDIA's software ecosystem, while technical commentary identified potential resistance around $231 and $234.75. A sustained move below roughly $227, particularly if accompanied by renewed semiconductor weakness, would invalidate the immediate bullish read.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 58% because the live quote, positive session momentum and corporate buyback news lean bullish, but the forecast horizon is only one trading day and NVDA is near a major recent high. The lack of an earnings catalyst inside the window and the competitive China-related headline risk argue for mild rather than strong directional signals.
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