Asked Sep 15, 10:02 AM EDT (morning session). DeepSeek V3, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Grok 4.5, Muse Spark 1.1, Claude Opus 5 and GPT-6 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 15, 10:02 AM EDT to Sep 16, 10:02 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V3 | 3/5 | 60.00% | -0.50% | 0.12% | -0.62% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.11% |
| Grok 4.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.27% | 0.12% | 0.15% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1/5 | 20.00% | -0.77% | 0.12% | -0.89% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 3/5 | 60.00% | -0.07% | 0.12% | -0.20% |
| GPT-6 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.23% | 0.12% | 0.11% |
DeepSeek V3
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US equities enter the September 15 session under broad selling pressure, with S&P 500 futures down roughly 0.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield having briefly breached 5% for the first time since 2023. The FOMC meeting begins today with a rate decision due September 16, and traders are pricing a ~90% probability of a 25bp hike. AI-linked stocks are under acute pressure after Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI leaders publicly called for a slowdown in frontier model development, with Nvidia down 3.4% and Micron off over 5% on Monday. Bank stocks are also weak after Bank of America's CEO flagged flat trading revenue. In this environment, broad beta exposure is unlikely to outperform SPY; stock-specific catalysts — earnings beats, strategic reviews, and analyst initiations — are the most plausible source of relative outperformance over a single session.
- RLGT — confidence 82.0000%. Thesis: Radiant Logistics reported Q4 FY2026 results after Monday's close, with revenue of $261.4 million beating the consensus estimate of $231.3 million and EPS of $0.15 beating the $0.09 consensus (Benzinga, September 15). The stock jumped 17.8% to $9.68 in Tuesday's session. Citizens JMP simultaneously upgraded RLGT to Market Outperform with a $10 price target, implying further upside from the reported $8.21 pre-earnings price. The company also amended its $200 million credit facility, extending maturity to 2031 and expanding the acquisition accordion to $100 million. Risks: The stock is a small-cap with limited liquidity; the 17.8% single-day move may attract profit-taking; and the broader market sell-off could cap gains if risk-off intensifies into the FOMC decision.
Return: 0.75%; alpha: 0.63%. - WAY — confidence 76.0000%. Thesis: Waystar is exploring strategic options including a potential sale, according to Reuters, and has engaged Evercore as an advisor (September 15). The stock jumped 8.6% to $27.05 on the news, with premarket gains reaching as high as 16%. EQT holds a 13% stake and CPP Investments owns 10%, giving the process credible strategic backing. M&A-driven situations often see sustained buying interest as event-driven funds accumulate and the market assigns a deal premium. Risks: The reports explicitly state discussions are at an early stage and no transaction is assured; if the sale process stalls or EQT signals it will not sell, the deal premium could unwind quickly; and the stock's 12-month performance has been weak, indicating underlying business pressure.
Return: -1.23%; alpha: -1.35%. - FPS — confidence 71.0000%. Thesis: Forgent Power Solutions reported Q4 results with EPS of $1.63 and revenue of $462 million, beating expectations, and issued FY27 guidance above estimates (GuruFocus, September 15). The stock rose 8.4% to $31.06 in Tuesday's session (Benzinga). Forgent is a power solutions company tied to data-center and industrial electrification demand, a theme that retains structural support even as AI software sentiment wobbles. The stock's reaction to the earnings beat and guidance raise suggests genuine fundamental momentum rather than a sympathy move. Risks: Forgent's P/E ratio exceeds 600x on a trailing basis, leaving little room for multiple compression if growth expectations moderate; the stock had fallen sharply from its 52-week high of $66 before this report, and a single session of strength may not reverse that downtrend.
Return: 3.90%; alpha: 3.78%. - AGL — confidence 67.0000%. Thesis: Bernstein upgraded agilon health from Market Perform to Outperform and raised its price target from $86 to $125, implying substantial upside from the $92.38 close (Benzinga, September 15). The upgrade is based on the company's turnaround gaining traction, with the analyst citing improving fundamentals. AGL gained 2.91% on Monday and was up another 1.12% in premarket trading. Healthcare services names have been relative safe havens in the current risk-off environment, and an upgrade of this magnitude from a credible sell-side shop can drive multi-day institutional accumulation. Risks: AGL has a negative EPS of -$15.23 on a trailing basis and trades at a negative P/E, meaning the thesis rests entirely on the recovery trajectory; any disappointment in upcoming operational updates could cause a sharp reversal; and the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $133.04.
Return: -6.33%; alpha: -6.46%. - RMD — confidence 64.0000%. Thesis: RBC Capital upgraded ResMed from Sector Perform to Outperform and raised its price target to $262 from $244, citing the company's leadership in obstructive sleep apnea devices and accelerating global market penetration (Investing.com, September 15). KeyBanc also raised its RMD price target to $267, maintaining an Overweight rating. The stock gained 2.16% on Monday to $222.99 and was up another 0.49% in premarket trading. RMD offers defensive healthcare exposure with a 21x P/E, 10% revenue growth, and 14 consecutive years of dividend increases, making it a plausible relative outperformer if the market's risk-off tone continues into the FOMC. Risks: ResMed's revenue slightly missed consensus in its most recent quarter; the stock has already been outperforming, so the upgrade-driven pop may be modest; and if a hawkish FOMC triggers a broad de-risking that spares nothing, even defensives can decline.
Return: 0.42%; alpha: 0.30%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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Wall Street is experiencing a risk-off session on September 15, 2026, as Brent crude surges past $107 per barrel following attacks on Saudi pipelines and escalating Middle East tensions. Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield has breached 5% for the first time since 2007, pushing markets to price in a near-certain Fed rate hike on Wednesday. Furthermore, a broad tech selloff is underway after AI industry leaders cautioned about rapid development risks. We favor energy, defense, and idiosyncratic upgrades to outperform the SPY benchmark over the next session.
- USO — confidence 85.0000%. Thesis: WTI crude jumped above $104 following attacks on a major Saudi pipeline and Houthi advances in the Middle East. USO offers direct exposure to this geopolitical risk premium, making it a strong hedge against the broader market's rate-driven selloff. Risks: Any diplomatic breakthrough or faster-than-expected repair of the Saudi infrastructure could rapidly deflate the oil premium.
Return: -0.42%; alpha: -0.54%. - XLE — confidence 80.0000%. Thesis: Broad energy equities are the primary beneficiaries of crude oil's massive rally. As capital flees high-beta technology due to AI safety fears and rising yields, it is rotating heavily into cash-flowing energy names. Risks: If the Fed delivers an unexpectedly hawkish surprise that supercharges the US Dollar, it could create a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities and energy stocks.
Return: -1.04%; alpha: -1.16%. - ETSY — confidence 75.0000%. Thesis: Etsy is demonstrating strong idiosyncratic relative strength, climbing over 3% in early trading following an upgrade to Outperform by Oppenheimer with a $90 price target. This upgrade provides a specific catalyst to buck the broader market trend. Risks: As a consumer discretionary name, ETSY remains vulnerable if soaring gas prices severely impact retail spending sentiment, potentially overriding the analyst upgrade.
Return: -2.82%; alpha: -2.94%. - CE — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Celanese is catching a strong bid, rising over 2.5% on positive momentum from recent analyst upgrades and an expanded divestiture announcement aimed at aggressive debt reduction. In a high-rate environment, repairing the balance sheet is highly rewarded. Risks: As a materials company, Celanese is exposed to higher energy input costs, which could squeeze margins if oil prices remain elevated for an extended period.
Return: 4.36%; alpha: 4.24%. - LMT — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Escalating hostilities in the Middle East, including the reported Houthi seizure of Perim Island, traditionally spark a safe-haven bid for prime defense contractors. LMT provides a defensive, non-correlated profile while the SPY struggles. Risks: Defense stocks can be slow-moving, and if the market shifts its focus entirely back to the FOMC rate decision, LMT might lag more volatile, rate-sensitive sectors.
Return: 1.09%; alpha: 0.97%.
Grok 4.5
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US equities opened soft on Tuesday with SPY futures pressured by elevated oil prices, 10-year yields above 5%, and positioning ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision (high odds of a 25bp hike). Semiconductor and broader tech remain cautious after the prior session's AI-related selloff, while energy continues to benefit from higher crude. Relative strength is expected in energy and cybersecurity names versus the broad market.
- XLE — confidence 65.0000%. Energy Select Sector SPDR benefits directly from sustained high oil prices (Brent near $108 and WTI elevated on Middle East supply concerns). The sector has shown relative outperformance amid broader equity softness and is less exposed to pre-Fed growth-stock pressure. Risk is a sudden de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a sharp risk-on equity rebound that reduces the commodity premium.
Return: -1.04%; alpha: -1.16%. - CRWD — confidence 60.0000%. CrowdStrike has displayed strong relative strength amid the AI-security theme and prior-session gains in cybersecurity names. It offers a liquid way to capture defensive tech exposure that can hold up better than pure semiconductor or hardware plays on a cautious pre-FOMC day. Risk is profit-taking or correlation with a broader tech selloff if risk sentiment deteriorates further.
Return: 2.15%; alpha: 2.03%. - CVX — confidence 58.0000%. Chevron is a major integrated energy name leveraged to higher crude prices and refining margins. Elevated oil supports earnings expectations and relative performance versus SPY while growth sectors face headwinds. Risk is a rapid pullback in oil prices or broader equity weakness that overrides sector strength.
Return: -0.51%; alpha: -0.63%. - PANW — confidence 55.0000%. Palo Alto Networks shares the cybersecurity relative-strength theme tied to heightened focus on AI-related security risks. It has shown resilience in recent sessions and provides exposure less directly tied to the semiconductor selloff. Risk is a sharp risk-off move that pulls all high-beta tech lower or rotation away from the sector.
Return: 1.70%; alpha: 1.58%. - XOM — confidence 53.0000%. Exxon Mobil offers broad exposure to the elevated oil-price environment and has historically shown relative strength when energy leads. It provides a large-cap, liquid vehicle for capturing the commodity tailwind on a day when SPY faces rate and AI-related pressure. Risk is profit-taking after recent energy gains or a broader market rebound that reduces relative outperformance.
Return: -0.94%; alpha: -1.06%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Sep 15 2026 FOMC eve: TalkMarkets Market Pulse Sep 15 5am notes rising oil fuels inflation concerns with 88% chance of Fed rate hike tomorrow, Brent near $106.9-107, WTI near $102.8 up 1.2-1.4% as Saudi East-West pipeline shut after drone strikes and Hormuz talks stalled. NordFX Sep 15 brief says FOMC decision tomorrow pricing 87-88% hike, ECB hiked Sep 10 to 2.50%. Kitco reports energy premarket higher with Marathon Petroleum +1.57% and Occidental +1.63%. SPY pressured by yields, with consumer sentiment falling to 47.8 vs 51.3 expected per Barchart CPI wrap. Energy likely outperforms SPY in 1 session.
- XLE — confidence 76.0000%. Energy Select Sector SPDR is direct play on Brent $106.9-107 and WTI $102.8 up 1.2-1.4% Sep 15 per TalkMarkets. Previous XLE gained 0.83% on $100 break and remains poised to extend. In Fed-hike fear tape where SPY weighed by growth multiple compression, XLE's commodity correlation and 88% hike odds tailwind provides relative strength. Risks: oil reversal if pipeline reopens, profit-taking after 20% monthly rise, broad market selloff dragging all.
Return: -1.04%; alpha: -1.16%. - OXY — confidence 73.0000%. Occidental Petroleum climbing 1.63% premarket per Kitco Sep 15 report, leveraged to WTI $102.8 and Permian production. Benefits from Saudi pipeline shut and Hormuz stall supply risk premium. High beta vs SPY for 1-day outperformance when crude leads tape. Cited as big oil gaining 2% on USO up 3.3% in similar oil surge. Risks: crude pullback, higher rates raising cost of capital, and execution risk if OPEC supply returns.
Return: -3.30%; alpha: -3.43%. - MPC — confidence 71.0000%. Marathon Petroleum +1.57% premarket Sep 15 per Kitco, refining beneficiary when crude spikes and product inventories tight. Refining cracks widen with Brent-WTI spread and supply disruption. Outperforms SPY in inflation-driven tape as earnings levered to diesel/gasoline. Risks: crack spread compression if demand softens, margin volatility, and regulatory risk.
Return: 1.93%; alpha: 1.81%. - XOM — confidence 69.0000%. ExxonMobil largest SPY energy weight, gained 2% on prior crude surge when USO up 3.3% per TheStreet. Direct leverage to Brent $106-109 and WTI $102, with disciplined buybacks supporting relative performance when SPY pressured by 88% Fed hike odds. Lower duration than tech-heavy SPY. Risks: crude reversal, windfall tax chatter, and broad equity drawdown.
Return: -0.94%; alpha: -1.06%. - CVX — confidence 67.0000%. Chevron second mega-cap oil with similar Brent leverage $106.9-107, benefits from elevated commodity price and supply disruption narrative. Provides diversification within energy basket and income defense when yields rise. Zacks Sep 3 rotation noted CVX as top energy pick for September when oil and rates shape month. Likely to outperform SPY if energy leads. Risks: operational issues, refining margin squeeze, and geopolitical de-escalation.
Return: -0.51%; alpha: -0.63%.
Claude Opus 5
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The window opens on a pre-FOMC Tuesday with the bond market, not the equity market, doing the driving. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.041% this morning, its highest since July 2007, surpassing the 2023 peak, after a global bond selloff driven by surging energy prices, heavy issuance and inflation (cnbc.com/2026/09/15/10-year-treasury-yield-rises-to-highest-since-2007.html, Bloomberg). Oil remains firmly above $100 with Brent near $103 and WTI futures up 0.79%, elevated since Saudi Arabia shuttered its East-West pipeline and Houthi forces launched fresh attacks (finance.yahoo.com Tuesday live blog). Crucially, the sector leadership has flipped from yesterday. Monday saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index fall 5.9%, with Nvidia down 3.4%, Micron down more than 5%, and Broadcom and AMD each down over 4% on the AI-pacing warnings (eurasiabusinessnews.com). This morning that is reversing: Nvidia and Micron are up 1% and AMD and Intel up more than 2%, while the Dow has lost 280 points or 0.5% and the Russell 2000 is off 0.40%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down only about 0.1% (cnbc.com live updates, thestreet.com). In other words, the equal-weight and small-cap tilt that worked yesterday is working against the tape today, and SPY's mega-cap weighting is now helping it rather than hurting it. The policy setup: the FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Warsh's press conference land Wednesday 16 September at 14:00 and 14:30 ET, outside this window, which closes at 10:02 ET Wednesday. So this is a pure pre-event window in which participants de-risk rather than resolve. The CNBC Fed Survey now shows 86% of respondents expecting a hike, up from 46% last month, with 55% expecting more than one, and Warsh is known for declining to guide on the path, which makes Wednesday's tail unusually fat. My construction therefore leans on real assets whose earnings are being revised up by the energy shock, one tactical rebound in the most oversold corner, and low-duration defensives. The honest structural weakness is concentration: three of the five legs depend in some form on the Middle East premium holding, so a de-escalation headline, of the kind the Financial Times has reported officials are pursuing over Hormuz shipping, would hit them together.
- XLE — confidence 60.0000%. Thesis: energy is the only sector whose earnings are being revised upward by the same force pushing yields to 19-year highs, which makes it the natural relative winner in a window where the bond market is the dominant variable. Crude remains firmly above $100 with WTI futures up 0.79% and prices elevated since the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown and renewed Houthi attacks (finance.yahoo.com Tuesday live blog, Reuters). Energy has been the best-performing S&P sector of 2026, up 43% year to date as of the start of September, and constituents have been printing multi-decade highs, with Marathon Petroleum reaching $381.15 on 1 September, a level unseen since June 2011 (cnbc.com). Unlike almost everything else in SPY, the sector is valued on near-term cash flow rather than terminal value, so a 5.04% 10-year does relatively little damage to it. Risks: energy equities actually fell with the broader tape on Monday despite crude at four-month highs, which suggests the market may be starting to price demand destruction rather than margin expansion; Reuters framed oil firmly above $100 as something that could deepen the energy shock, a negative for the whole market. Roughly 40% of the fund sits in Exxon and Chevron, which lag spot crude on sharp moves. Any Hormuz de-escalation headline unwinds the premium fast, as on 11 March when Brent fell more than 9% in a session. Source: finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-tuesday-september-15-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-081307838.html, www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Return: -1.04%; alpha: -1.16%. - SMH — confidence 57.0000%. Thesis: a tactical rebound bet that the tape is already confirming rather than a contrarian guess. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5.9% on Monday on the AI-pacing warnings from Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk, an outsized single-day move that left the group deeply oversold relative to a sector still up 57% on the year. This morning the reversal is underway: Nvidia and Micron are up 1%, AMD and Intel up more than 2%, and CNBC explicitly attributes the S&P 500 and Nasdaq holding near flat to AI-linked gains offsetting weakness elsewhere, while the Dow drops 0.5%. President Trump publicly dismissed the slowdown warnings on competitiveness grounds, which removes the regulatory teeth from Monday's story. Relative thesis: SMH gives roughly three times SPY's sensitivity to the specific names leading this bounce. Risks: this is the highest-variance leg and the one most exposed to being wrong quickly. The fundamental backdrop is genuinely deteriorating, with Morgan Stanley flagging weakening DRAM demand, building inventory and NAND oversupply, and SOXX bleeding $393 million in the week to 7 September including $259 million in one session, among its worst days since launch (benzinga.com). A pre-FOMC afternoon fade would hit high-beta growth hardest, and I am buying a bounce already partly in the price. Source: eurasiabusinessnews.com/2026/09/14/stock-market-today-10-year-treasury-yield-touches-5-as-oil-surge-raises-inflation-fears/, www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Return: 0.60%; alpha: 0.48%. - XLV — confidence 55.0000%. Thesis: the pre-FOMC defensive and the leg least dependent on any single narrative. With Wednesday's decision outside this window, the dominant flow between now and then is risk reduction, and health care is the large sector best positioned for it: beta near 0.8, no AI capex exposure, minimal crude input sensitivity, and cash flows near-term and contractual rather than bond-proxy in character, which matters when the 10-year is at 5.04% and utilities, staples and real estate are being repriced as duration. Health care names were among those printing 52-week highs in the recent tape, with Pfizer reaching $29.09 on 1 September, its highest since October 2024, and Solventum also at a 52-week high (cnbc.com). Schwab's sector research has flagged the group as driven by operational efficiency and biotechnology rather than the rate or commodity cycle. Risks: XLV is roughly a 10% weight inside SPY, so a correct call yields only modest relative outperformance, which is why it is mid-ranked rather than first. If the semiconductor bounce broadens into a full risk-on session, defensives lag badly and this leg underperforms outright. Drug-pricing and policy headlines are idiosyncratic and unforecastable over one session. Source: www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-sector-outlook, www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Return: 0.91%; alpha: 0.79%. - XOP — confidence 54.0000%. Thesis: the higher-beta version of rank 1, added because the supply disruption is still escalating rather than resolving. Exploration and production companies carry the steepest earnings leverage to the crude price, since revenue moves nearly one-for-one with the barrel against largely fixed short-run costs, and XOP is equal-weighted across a broad producer list rather than concentrated in two supermajors. The EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook already assumes Middle East export constraints persist into 2027 and expects global inventories to keep falling, so the forward curve support is structural, not purely a headline. With the Saudi East-West pipeline shut and Houthi attacks continuing, the disruption premium has a physical basis that is verifiable rather than rumoured. Risks: the leverage cuts both ways, and XOP falls harder than XLE on any fade in crude. Smaller-capitalisation producers carry direct balance-sheet sensitivity to a 10-year at 5.04%, which is a live and worsening headwind in exactly this window, and the Russell 2000's 0.40% decline today shows small-cap risk appetite is weak. This leg also duplicates much of rank 1's exposure, so the diversification benefit to the basket is limited and a de-escalation headline hits both at once. Source: www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php, www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-sept-15-2026-dow-futures-slide-as-oil-prices-surge-and-treasury-yields-hit-2007-highs
Return: -1.66%; alpha: -1.78%. - ITA — confidence 52.0000%. Thesis: the escalation leg. The energy shock driving both the bond selloff and the equity weakness stems from an Iran conflict that keeps broadening, with Saudi Arabia shutting a pipeline and Iranian-backed Houthi forces launching fresh attacks in the region this week, and Kuwait earlier confronting missile and drone attacks (finance.yahoo.com, cnbc.com). Defence procurement and munitions replenishment respond to the market's estimate of conflict duration rather than to daily oil prices, and reporting has suggested senior advisers view the conflict as potentially extending for years. The sector carries no AI capex exposure, so it is insulated from the narrative whipsawing the rest of the tape between Monday and Tuesday. Risks: this is the lowest-conviction leg and is ranked last accordingly. It overlaps the geopolitical dependence of ranks 1 and 4, so it offers less diversification than it appears to. TheStreet reported industrials among the sectors leading Monday's decline, which is a direct negative read for aerospace and defence. Its beta to a broad risk-off session is close to one, so the most likely failure mode is simply tracking SPY rather than beating it, and appropriations headlines are an unpredictable single-session risk. Source: finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-tuesday-september-15-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-081307838.html, www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-sept-14-2026
Return: 0.81%; alpha: 0.69%.
GPT-6
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I favor energy and defensive equities over SPY as oil-supply disruption, rising yields and AI uncertainty pressure the broader market. These are relative-return forecasts; outperformance may mean smaller losses. Reuters reports renewed Saudi attacks and higher Treasury yields. The September 16 Fed decision occurs after the specified window ends. Sources: [Reuters](https://za.investing.com/news/economy-news/asian-shares-waver-as-oil-and-yields-rise-ahead-of-fed-boj-meetings-4464340), [Federal Reserve calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm). Each selection receives 20% weight. Confidence represents a subjective, uncalibrated probability of outperforming SPY. Retrieved quotes have different timestamps and do not establish exact starting prices or returns already earned within the window.
- XLE — confidence 62.0000%. Energy has the clearest direct link to the current supply shock: elevated petroleum prices can support producer earnings while increasing costs elsewhere in SPY. XLE was up 1.44% at 14:01 UTC, providing evidence of strength immediately before the baseline; that earlier gain is not forecast-window performance. My thesis is continued relative demand for energy exposure through the next morning. Risks include de-escalation, restored supply, demand concerns and another reversal in oil-sensitive equities. Source: [XLE quote and portfolio](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/xle/).
Return: -1.04%; alpha: -1.16%. - USMV — confidence 60.0000%. USMV's diversified minimum-volatility equity strategy should have a relative advantage if uncertainty and higher borrowing costs continue to depress SPY. Its September 14 gain of 0.59% supports the defensive-rotation thesis, although the retrieved quote was yesterday's close. The forecast depends on continuing risk aversion rather than an immediate company catalyst. Risks include a sharp technology rebound, interest-rate pressure on defensive holdings and overlap with the other defensive selections. Sources: [iShares fund objective](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239695/USMV?referrer=tickerSearch), [USMV price history and overview](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/usmv/).
Return: -0.07%; alpha: -0.19%. - XLP — confidence 58.0000%. Consumer staples offer relatively resilient demand if expensive energy and tighter monetary-policy expectations weaken discretionary spending. I expect that earnings resilience to attract defensive allocation relative to SPY through the next morning. The retrieved opening quote was down 0.47%, so this is a prospective defensive thesis rather than a claim of confirmed strength today. Risks are higher freight and input costs, valuation pressure from rising yields, and a broad risk-on reversal. Source: [XLP quote and sector exposure](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/xlp/).
Return: 0.12%; alpha: -0.00%. - XLV — confidence 57.0000%. Healthcare provides exposure to comparatively persistent medical demand with less direct dependence on AI infrastructure spending. My inference is that investors may return to this defensive sector while awaiting monetary-policy clarity. The retrieved 13:33 UTC quote showed a 0.70% decline, which weakens the momentum evidence and limits confidence. Risks include reimbursement or drug-pricing headlines, concentrated holdings and continued sector weakness despite broader risk aversion. Source: [XLV quote and portfolio](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/xlv/).
Return: 0.91%; alpha: 0.79%. - CIBR — confidence 54.0000%. Cybersecurity offers a distinct potential beneficiary of AI safety concerns: investors may anticipate additional spending on protection even while reducing AI hardware exposure. Axios documented strong cybersecurity-stock gains on September 14, and CIBR supplies diversified industry exposure. Those earlier gains are already reflected in the starting valuation; further outperformance requires continued repricing. Its retrieved opening quote was down 0.54%. Risks are profit-taking after the rally, elevated software valuations and security-spending expectations failing to produce new orders. Sources: [Axios cybersecurity report](https://www.axios.com/2026/09/15/ai-cybersecurity-stocks), [First Trust fund description](https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/etf/etfsummary.aspx?Ticker=CIBR), [CIBR quote](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/cibr/).
Return: 1.24%; alpha: 1.12%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 2 | 40.00% | +0.00% |
| Kimi | 1 | 20.00% | -0.70% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 5 | 44.00% | -0.74% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1 | 40.00% | -0.88% |
| Grok 4.5 | 6 | 26.67% | -1.45% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 5 | 24.00% | -1.55% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 4 | 30.00% | -1.84% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 5 | 16.00% | -2.22% |
| DeepSeek | 5 | 40.00% | -2.52% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGL | 95.66000000 | 89.60000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AGL/history/ | |
| CE | 44.96000000 | 46.92000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CE/history/ | |
| CIBR | 99.90000000 | 101.14000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CIBR/history/ | |
| CRWD | 235.65000000 | 240.72580000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD/history/ | |
| CVX | 215.28750000 | 214.19000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX/history/ | |
| ETSY | 75.48000000 | 73.35000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETSY/history/ | |
| FPS | 32.68500000 | 33.96000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FPS/history/ | |
| ITA | 213.80000000 | 215.54000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITA/history/ | |
| LMT | 527.94500000 | 533.68000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/history/ | |
| MPC | 402.07000000 | 409.83000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPC/history/ | |
| OXY | 63.10000000 | 61.01500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OXY/history/ | |
| PANW | 371.95000000 | 378.27080000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/history/ | |
| RLGT | 9.32000000 | 9.39000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RLGT/history/ | |
| RMD | 227.66500000 | 228.62000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RMD/history/ | |
| SMH | 547.27000000 | 550.55000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMH/history/ | |
| SPY | 759.16000000 | 760.08000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| USMV | 99.31000000 | 99.24010000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USMV/history/ | |
| USO | 158.97000000 | 158.29900000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USO/history/ | |
| WAY | 26.78000000 | 26.45000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WAY/history/ | |
| XLE | 65.40500000 | 64.72500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ | |
| XLP | 83.61000000 | 83.71000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP/history/ | |
| XLV | 166.75000000 | 168.27000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLV/history/ | |
| XOM | 167.50000000 | 165.93000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/ | |
| XOP | 197.75000000 | 194.47500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOP/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v7, SHA-256 bb1206e627137619ad62aef89f6df9ed8aed61edf40835170126f7007920c7f9. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.