Asked Sep 17, 10:06 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, Muse Spark 1.1, DeepSeek V3 and Gemini 1.5 Pro answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 17, 10:06 AM EDT to Sep 18, 10:06 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Directional return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3/5 | 60.00% | 3.65% | -0.18% | 3.65% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.18% | -0.18% | 0.18% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -1.76% | -0.18% | -1.76% |
| DeepSeek V3 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 6.96% | -0.18% | 6.96% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.62% | -0.18% | -1.62% |
GPT-5.6 Sol
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The September 16 source session produced several extreme microcap moves against a weak broader market after the Federal Reserve raised rates. For the September 17 to September 18 window, I favor mean reversion after the most speculative multi-hundred-percent gains, while allowing continuation where a source-session move was tied to a substantive financing or corporate transaction and extended-hours demand remained strong. Quote freshness varies because accessible public quote pages did not expose a regular-session September 17 intraday print for every microcap at research time; each rationale states the freshest quote actually verified.
- DLXY down — confidence 84%. DLXY rose 451.81% in the September 16 regular session to $2.29 after announcing a non-binding letter of intent involving a potential interest of up to 48% in the Sarybulak Oil Field in Kazakhstan. The underlying oil-field opportunity is potentially substantive, but the agreement remained preliminary and non-binding, making a 451.81% one-session valuation increase highly speculative. The strongest confirming signal for a reversal was the subsequent collapse in extended trading: the freshest quote I could verify was $1.56 in September 17 premarket trading, already roughly 32% below the source-session close. I therefore expect additional reversal pressure and direction down relative to the positive September 16 move. Risks are another low-float momentum squeeze, additional transaction details, or renewed speculative interest in oil-related stocks. The reference price is a September 17 premarket quote because I could not verify a newer regular-session intraday print from an accessible source.
Return: -35.18%; alpha: 35.36%. - MEDS down — confidence 76%. MEDS gained 274.69% on September 16 to $6.07 following its acquisition of the Helomics AI Cancer Diagnostics Lab and Precision Oncology CRO businesses. The acquisition is a real and substantive corporate event, but the magnitude of the two-day revaluation is highly speculative for a company with a source-session market capitalization of only about $18.6 million. MEDS traded as high as $12.31 during September 16 before closing at $6.07, showing substantial intraday rejection from the peak. The freshest quote I could verify was $7.40 in September 17 premarket trading, still above the source-session close, but that does not change the classification: because September 16 was strongly positive, my expectation of a lower next-session endpoint is a reversal with direction down. Risks include renewed momentum buying, extremely limited float, and investors assigning substantial strategic value to the acquired oncology assets.
Return: -2.11%; alpha: 2.29%. - XBIO up — confidence 72%. XBIO fell 48.71% on September 16 to $2.19 after announcing a definitive all-stock transaction to acquire Santersus AG. The catalyst is substantive: Santersus holders are expected to own approximately 85% of the combined company while existing Xenetic holders retain approximately 15%, subject to transaction adjustments. The severe decline therefore reflects genuine dilution and transaction repricing rather than an unexplained selloff. However, after losing nearly half its value in one session, the stock was modestly higher in the freshest September 17 premarket quote I could verify at $2.268. The combined pipeline includes programs in sepsis and systemic lupus erythematosus with FDA Breakthrough Device Designation, creating enough underlying asset value for a technical rebound after the initial repricing. I therefore classify XBIO as reversal up relative to its negative September 16 change. Risks are continued dilution-related selling, shareholder approval uncertainty, clinical-stage biotechnology risk, and the possibility that the market continues repricing Xenetic toward its approximately 15% ownership share.
Return: 10.86%; alpha: 11.04%. - AEHL up — confidence 68%. AEHL advanced 78.68% on September 16 to $9.22 after announcing the closing of a $6.0 million convertible promissory-note offering. The financing is substantive relative to AEHL's approximately $12.9 million source-session market capitalization: net proceeds were approximately $5.965 million, a meaningful addition to liquidity for a very small company. Extended-hours demand remained unusually strong, with the freshest quote I could verify at $11.68 as of 9:20 AM Eastern on September 17, approximately 26.7% above the September 16 close. Because the source-session move was positive and I expect the financing-driven momentum to persist through the scoring endpoint, this is continuation with direction up. Risks include extreme volatility, conversion-related dilution, a very small float and market capitalization, the stock's history of violent reversals, and the possibility that the financing benefit was fully priced during the initial surge.
Return: -24.92%; alpha: -24.74%. - CUPR up — confidence 60%. CUPR fell 45.39% in the September 16 regular session from $2.93 to $1.60 on volume far above its recent norm. I could verify the magnitude of the decline, closing price and market capitalization, but I did not find a comparably clear company-specific fundamental announcement explaining the collapse. That makes the move less fundamentally anchored than XBIO's transaction-driven decline and increases the probability of partial mean reversion after an extreme one-day loss. The freshest traded price I could verify was $1.61 in September 16 after-hours trading; I could not verify a September 17 premarket or regular-session quote from the accessible sources, so data_date remains 2026-09-16 rather than being restated as today. I therefore choose reversal up relative to the negative source-session move. Risks are that the selling reflected information not captured by the accessible news sources, continued low-liquidity liquidation, or structural deterioration that prevents a rebound.
Return: -4.99%; alpha: -4.81%.
Claude Opus 5
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Source session is Wednesday 16 September 2026, FOMC day, and it produced an unusually clean split rather than a broad move. The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, the first hike since 2023, and the dot plot was firmly hawkish: 16 of 18 officials see at least one more hike this year, four pencilled in two more, the median stays near 4.1% through end-2027 with no cuts in 2027, and the return to 2% core inflation is pushed to 2029 (vantagemarkets.com, fool.com). The index damage was concentrated, not general: the Dow fell 631.21 points or 1.21% to 51,461.90 with Goldman Sachs leading it lower, the S&P 500 dropped 0.45% to 7,551.81, and the Nasdaq Composite finished essentially flat at 25,978.42, down 0.01%. Banks took the brunt, with the SPDR S&P Bank ETF down 2.6% for its worst session since 27 February, and Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup each falling more than 3% while JPMorgan lost 1.5% (cnbc.com/2026/09/15/stock-market-today-live-updates.html). Semiconductors went the other way on a genuinely company-specific catalyst: Reuters reported SK Hynix is in talks to manufacture memory chips in the US for the first time, possibly leasing part of Intel's $100 billion Ohio campus, and SOXX gained 2%, tripling QQQ's advance (247wallst.com, cnbc.com/2026/09/16/intel-sk-hynix-us-memory-chips.html). My structural read is that both moves are substantive rather than speculative and both should persist for more than one session. The Intel catalyst is a reported commercial negotiation reinforced by multiple analyst target raises, not sentiment; the bank selloff reflects a repricing of the policy path itself, which does not reverse because a day has passed. Two honesty notes. First, I verified prices and percentages for the three semiconductor picks but could only verify that the banks fell more than 3% without an exact figure or a refreshable quote, so I report what the source actually says and omit what I could not confirm. Second, my freshest usable quotes for ranks 1 to 3 are Wednesday closes, roughly eighteen hours stale; the one intraday datapoint I have for today is a percentage move, not a dollar price, which I describe rather than convert and present as a quote.
- INTC up — confidence 58%. Ranked first because it is the only pick with a substantive catalyst and confirmed follow-through already visible today. Intel closed at $101.05 on 16 September, up 4.03%, on 117.5 million shares against a three-month average of 109.5 million, after Reuters reported talks with SK Hynix to manufacture memory chips in the US for the first time, potentially by leasing part of Intel's planned Ohio production site or through a joint venture with cloud firms. This is a reported commercial negotiation, not a sentiment story, and it was reinforced the same day by Melius Research reiterating Buy with a $165 target and Tigress Financial lifting its target to $145 from $118, plus an Altera IPO filing that crystallises asset value. A stock market roundup timestamped 07:47:53 EDT on 17 September reports Intel trending up a further 3.22%, so the move is extending rather than fading. Risks: the talks are explicitly exploratory with no decisions made, South Korea's trade ministry told Reuters any deal involving national core technology is subject to review under its Industrial Technology Protection Act, and the Ohio plants are not due until 2030, so nothing here affects near-term earnings. The stock is up 171% year to date, which makes it vulnerable to profit-taking. Price note: $101.05 is Wednesday's regular-session close, about eighteen hours stale; today's move is reported to me as a percentage rather than a dollar quote, so I have not converted it. Market cap is an estimate derived from price and approximate share count.
Return: -0.34%; alpha: -0.16%. - AMD up — confidence 54%. Ranked second as the broader semiconductor continuation. AMD closed at $512.50 on 16 September, up 1.65%, participating in a session where SOXX gained 2% and tripled QQQ's advance while the S&P 500 fell 0.45%. The relative-strength signal is the point: on a day when a hawkish Fed knocked 1.21% off the Dow, the semiconductor complex rose, which says the market is treating this cohort as the place to be in a higher-for-longer regime rather than as the first thing to sell. AMD also carries its own recovery narrative from Monday's AI-pacing selloff, which was driven by an opinion essay on the pace of frontier model development rather than by any change to orders or guidance, and which President Trump publicly dismissed on competitiveness grounds. Risks: AMD has roughly doubled in 2026, so the valuation offers no cushion if the long end pushes further above 5%, and semiconductors are the longest-duration equity exposure in the market. Morgan Stanley has flagged weakening DRAM demand with building inventory and NAND oversupply, and a 1.65% gain is a modest signal to extrapolate from. There is no scheduled AMD catalyst inside the window. Price note: this is Wednesday's regular-session close, roughly eighteen hours stale; I could not obtain a fresher intraday quote. Market cap is an estimate.
Return: 2.56%; alpha: 2.74%. - TSM up — confidence 52%. Ranked third as the lowest-variance way to express the same continuation. Taiwan Semiconductor closed at $417.72 on 16 September, up 1.23%, alongside the broader foundry and chip advance. The specific logic for including it rather than a fourth high-beta name is that the SK Hynix story is fundamentally about where advanced manufacturing capacity gets built, and a wave of investor attention on domestic foundry economics tends to lift the incumbent leader alongside the challenger, even when the headline names a competitor. TSM is also the largest and most liquid pure foundry exposure available in US listings, which damps the idiosyncratic risk that dominates ranks 1 and 2. Risks: a 1.23% gain is the smallest move among my three continuation picks, so there is the least momentum to extend, and the reported Intel-SK Hynix arrangement is arguably competitive with TSM's US expansion rather than supportive of it. Geopolitical headline risk around Taiwan is unforecastable over a single session and is the tail that matters most here. As a roughly $2 trillion name it will also track the index closely, so the likeliest failure mode is simply not moving enough to score. Price note: Wednesday's regular-session close, roughly eighteen hours stale. Market cap is an estimate derived from the quoted price and approximate share count.
Return: 1.56%; alpha: 1.74%. - GS down — confidence 51%. Ranked fourth as the cleanest short side of Wednesday's split. CNBC reports Goldman Sachs led the Dow's 631-point decline and fell more than 3%, with the SPDR S&P Bank ETF shedding 2.6% for its worst session since 27 February. The continuation case is that this was a repricing of the policy regime, not a one-day reaction: the dot plot now projects no cuts in 2027, a median rate near 4.1% through next year and inflation above target until 2029, which raises funding costs and credit provisioning assumptions across a multi-quarter horizon. The dollar index also popped 0.6% to 100.21, its highest since 31 July, which tightens conditions further. Regime repricings of this kind typically bleed over several sessions as estimates are revised, unlike headline shocks that mean-revert. Risks: real and specific. A first hike with a steepening curve is the textbook net-interest-margin trade, and if the long end holds above 5% while the front end stabilises, banks are the natural beneficiaries and this leg inverts. Goldman is also more capital-markets-driven than spread-driven, so higher volatility can help its trading revenue. Honesty note: the source states only that the stock fell more than 3%, so -3 is a floor rather than the exact figure, and I could not verify a current quote or a market capitalisation, so both are omitted rather than invented.
Return: 1.89%; alpha: -1.71%. - C down — confidence 49%. Ranked last and carrying the thinnest verified data, which I want to state before the thesis. CNBC names Citigroup among the banks that fell more than 3% on 16 September, alongside Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Bank of America, while JPMorgan lost only 1.5%. That dispersion within the group is the reason for picking Citigroup rather than JPMorgan: the market discriminated, selling the names with weaker perceived capital positions and more consumer credit exposure hardest, and a 3%-plus decline against JPMorgan's 1.5% is a relative-quality verdict that tends to persist while the rate path is being repriced. With the Fed projecting inflation above target until 2029 and no cuts in 2027, the borrower stress channel runs for quarters, not hours. Mast Investments CIO Yung-Shin Kung has argued the hike disproportionately strains the bottom of a K-shaped economy by raising debt-servicing costs without relief, which is a direct consumer-credit threat. Risks: heavily discounted bank stocks are prone to sharp mean-reversion bounces after a capitulation day, and the entire sector could rally if the curve steepens rather than flattens. Honesty note: as with rank 4, -3 is the floor the source states rather than an exact figure, and I could not verify a current price or market cap, so both are omitted.
Return: 0.98%; alpha: -0.80%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Sep 17 post-FOMC source session Sep 16: Cambridge confirms Fed voted 12-0 Sep 16 2pm ET to raise to 3.75%-4.00% first hike since July 2023 under Warsh. Trefis market movers Sep 16 shows winners WLTH +15.0%, SWKS +9.8%, ANGX +9.1% concentrated in small caps with market value WLTH $1.7B. Motley Fool biggest losers Sep 16 shows SUNE $3.37 -$1.14 -25.28% vol 11.6M cap $29M and UNFI $42.89 -$8.75 -16.94% cap $3.1B and SNWV -41.99%. SPY close Sep 16 $754.20 per MacroTrends vs high $777.88 Aug 13. Fed hike fully priced 91% per LSEG Sep 16 morning.
- WLTH up — confidence 72%. Wealthfront top gainer Sep 16 +15.0% per Trefis Thursday winners table with market value about $1.7B and revenue +14.1% LTM. MacroTrends latest close Sep 16 $10.17 vs 52-week high $14.88 +46.3% above. Catalyst substantive fintech lending pivot into higher rates benefits from Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% Sep 16. Price used intraday Sep 16 close $10.17 stale 1 day. Continuation up expected after merger progress absent. Exclude passes price $10 >1.
Return: -0.29%; alpha: -0.12%. - SWKS up — confidence 70%. Skyworks Solutions +9.8% Sep 16 per Trefis winners second place. Finnhub live Sep 17 current $86.89 open $86.755 high $87.71 low $84.43 previous close $85.59 +1.3 +1.52%. Market cap 13294.27M per Finnhub Sep 16. Catalyst substantive: Qorvo merger exchange offers extended Sep 11 per GlobeNewswire 90% tendered, driving price. 5-day +21.52% 1-month +24.81% YTD +37.03%. Live price Sep 17 used, continuation up.
Return: 1.07%; alpha: 1.24%. - ANGX up — confidence 68%. Angel Studios +9.1% Sep 16 per Trefis winners third. Finnhub current $5.15 open $5.34 high $5.41 low $5.11 previous close $5.30. Kraken Sep 17 $5.28 previous close $5.28 range $5.17-$5.38 market cap $1.01B. Upstox Sep 17 market cap $822.83M high $5.36 low $5.18. Catalyst speculative content studio momentum, no earnings. Live Sep 17 price used, continuation up into Fed relief.
Return: 4.28%; alpha: 4.46%. - UNFI up — confidence 65%. United Natural Foods biggest loser Sep 16 -16.94% $42.89 -$8.75 cap $3.1B per Motley Fool losers table. Finnhub live Sep 17 $46.49 open $46.70 high $46.78 low $45.69 previous close $46.30 +0.41% showing intraday bounce. Market cap $2.76B Sep 16 per Upstox. Catalyst substantive grocery wholesaler earnings miss: Motley Fool headline Sep 16 Why UNFI crashed today bracing for biggest full-year net loss, CFO noted procurement gain decline from decelerating inflation. Washed-out -16.9% suggests reversal up.
Return: -1.53%; alpha: -1.35%. - SUNE up — confidence 62%. SUNation Energy loser Sep 16 -25.28% $3.37 -$1.14 vol 11.6M cap $29M per Motley Fool SUNE table. Finnhub Sep 17 current $2.935 open $2.85 high $2.9795 low $2.85 previous close $2.91 +0.025. Market cap 20.84M Finnhub. Upstox Sep 16 high $3.22 low $3.10 market cap $7.99M. Catalyst speculative solar installer volatility, 5-day +30.44% despite drop. Price >1 so exclusion passes despite cap <1B. Reversal up expected after -25% washout.
Return: -12.34%; alpha: -12.16%.
DeepSeek V3
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US equities enter the September 17 session with a constructive tone after the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike on September 16 and signaled that further tightening may be needed if inflation remains elevated. The Dow fell 1.17% on Wednesday as the hawkish dot plot disappointed some investors, but futures pointed higher on Thursday morning, with S&P 500 futures up nearly 1%. The dominant theme is stock-specific catalysts: Generac's landmark Amazon supply agreement, Nebius's GPU price hikes, and a cluster of micro-cap movers with extreme momentum. The session's extreme movers are split between large-cap names with substantive fundamental news and speculative micro-cap squeezes. Breadth remains narrow, and the FOMC's hawkish tilt keeps a lid on broad risk appetite, making idiosyncratic catalysts the primary driver of relative performance over the next session.
- GNRC up — confidence 82%. Continuation up. Generac closed at $175.11 on September 16, up 0.05% in the source session. The stock surged 33.7% in Thursday premarket trading after announcing a long-term supply agreement with Amazon to provide industrial backup generators for Amazon's global data center infrastructure. Initial deliveries are expected to total $2.4 billion across 2027 and 2028, with the overall purchase target reaching $8 billion over the contract's lifetime (Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, September 17). Amazon also received warrants to purchase Generac stock, deepening the strategic alignment. The catalyst is substantive: a signed supply agreement with a named counterparty and disclosed dollar values directly de-risks Generac's data center growth narrative, and multiple analysts (Needham, Barclays) reiterated bullish ratings following the announcement. Risks: The stock is up 33% premarket, so the move may already be fully priced; GuruFocus notes GNRC trades approximately 3.5% above its intrinsic GF Value of $169.21, suggesting limited fundamental upside; and any reversal in AI infrastructure sentiment could quickly unwind the gains.
Return: -3.21%; alpha: -3.03%. - FLNC down — confidence 76%. Continuation down. Fluence Energy closed at $9.05 on September 16, down 2.69% in the source session. The stock plunged nearly 19% in Thursday premarket trading to $7.61 after the company slashed its FY2026 revenue guidance to approximately $2.4 billion from a prior midpoint of $3 billion, and widened its adjusted EBITDA loss forecast to roughly $200 million from $10 million (Investing.com, September 17). The guidance cut was driven by delays at its Houston manufacturing facility, which management attributed to production ramp-up issues. Baird downgraded the stock and slashed its price target by 70%, calling the delays and guidance cuts 'material negatives' (Investing.com, September 17). The catalyst is substantive: a formal guidance reduction with named operational causes and multiple analyst downgrades creates a fresh negative narrative that typically persists beyond a single session. Risks: The stock has already fallen sharply premarket and could see a dead-cat bounce; the energy storage sector retains long-term structural support; and if the company provides a credible recovery timeline, the sell-off could reverse.
Return: -4.85%; alpha: 5.03%. - DLXY down — confidence 70%. Reversal down. Delixy Holdings closed at $2.29 on September 16, up 451.81% in the source session, one of the largest single-day gainers on US exchanges. The stock was down approximately 38% in Thursday premarket trading to $1.41 (StockAnalysis, September 17). The catalyst is speculative: DLXY is a micro-cap with a market cap of just $37.4 million, and a 452% single-day move is characteristic of a short squeeze or low-float dynamic rather than a fundamental re-rating. The reversal hypothesis rests on the well-documented tendency of micro-cap momentum spikes to mean-revert sharply once the initial buying pressure exhausts. The premarket decline confirms that sellers are already active. Risks: Micro-cap squeezes can extend for multiple sessions, and DLXY's tiny float means the stock could spike again on any renewed buying interest; the premarket range of $1.28 to $1.56 shows extreme volatility; and the lack of a substantive catalyst makes the reversal call inherently uncertain.
Return: -35.18%; alpha: 35.36%. - MEDS up — confidence 68%. Continuation up. DataMeds AI closed at $6.07 on September 16, up 274.69% in the source session. The stock was up approximately 14% in Thursday premarket trading to $6.93 (Sina Finance, September 17). The catalyst is substantive: DataMeds AI completed the acquisition of Helomics, an AI cancer diagnostics laboratory and precision oncology CRO, for $1.5 million in common stock plus a promissory note, and separately received $1.5 million in cash without assuming any third-party debt (Edgen Tech, September 16). The acquisition gives DataMeds a tangible AI-driven diagnostics asset and a precision oncology revenue stream. The stock was briefly halted on September 17 at 09:44 EDT due to abnormal volatility and resumed trading at 09:54 EDT (10jqka, September 17). Risks: The stock is a micro-cap with a market cap of just $36 million; the acquisition is small in absolute dollar terms; the 274% source-session gain and subsequent halt signal extreme speculative interest that could reverse violently; and the premarket range of $3.50 to $12.31 shows unprecedented volatility.
Return: -2.11%; alpha: -1.93%. - NBIS up — confidence 74%. Continuation up. Nebius Group closed at $209.37 on September 16, up 0.96% in the source session. The stock jumped 9.15% in Thursday premarket trading to $228.44 after the company raised prices across its on-demand GPU cloud offerings effective October 1 (Benzinga, Yahoo Finance, September 17). The H100 hourly rate will rise 16.9% to $4.50 from $3.85, while the H200 rate increases 20% to $5.40 from $4.50; the Nvidia B300 sees the largest absolute increase, from $7.85 to $9.50 per GPU-hour (Investing.com, September 17). The catalyst is substantive: a direct price increase on core revenue-generating products signals strong demand and pricing power in the AI compute market. Peers IREN and CoreWeave also rallied on the news, confirming the sector-wide read-through. Risks: The stock has already run up significantly; the price increase could invite competitive response from larger cloud providers; and any disappointment in AI compute demand trends could reverse the gains.
Return: 0.08%; alpha: 0.26%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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The market is exhibiting mixed dynamics on September 17, 2026, following a highly volatile previous session where major indices reacted to the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in over three years. Today, capital is rotating sharply as investors reassess fundamentals; high-beta gainers from Wednesday's AI and tech sympathy rallies are facing localized profit-taking, while several value and industrial names that suffered severe substantive drawdowns yesterday are catching relief bids.
- SMTC up — confidence 85%. Semtech Corp jumped 11.03% on September 16, driven by robust financial health scores and strong investor sentiment that pushed it toward all-time highs. Sourced from a live intraday quote at 10:08 AM EDT on September 17, the stock is trading higher at $173.15, indicating continued upward momentum. This substantive buying pressure supports a continuation thesis.
Return: 4.25%; alpha: 4.43%. - SABR up — confidence 80%. Sabre Corp gained 11.00% in the previous session and hit a new 52-week high amid analyst upgrades. Currently trading at $2.43 based on a live intraday quote from September 17, the substantive momentum from Wall Street's growth forecasts continues to drive the stock higher, confirming an upward continuation.
Return: -6.38%; alpha: -6.20%. - CIFR down — confidence 75%. Cipher Mining surged 10.80% on September 16 following a substantive analyst upgrade and the approval of new ERCOT power capacity for its Bitcoin mining projects. However, a live intraday quote of $16.61 on September 17 shows early profit-taking. We expect this speculative over-extension to fade into a downward reversal as the session progresses.
Return: 2.78%; alpha: -2.60%. - JBHT up — confidence 85%. J.B. Hunt Transport plunged 13.30% in the previous session due to a substantive mid-quarter profit warning citing rising trucking costs. Today, value buyers are stepping in; a live intraday quote of $240.74 on September 17 reflects a relief bounce. This signals an upward reversal as the market digests the initial panic selling.
Return: -2.08%; alpha: -1.90%. - ALHC up — confidence 75%. Alignment Healthcare dropped 16.01% on September 16, pressured by a substantive SEC filing revealing a planned executive stock sale. The stock is seeing a mild dead-cat bounce in early trading on September 17, with a live intraday quote of $8.79. We project this bounce will hold, driving an upward reversal for the session.
Return: -1.10%; alpha: -0.92%.
How models have done in Extreme Movers
ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg directions called correctly | Avg directional return |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek | 2 | 60.00% | +4.75% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 1 | 60.00% | +3.65% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 1 | 40.00% | +0.18% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1 | 20.00% | -1.62% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1 | 40.00% | -1.76% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEHL | 13.59860000 | 10.21000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AEHL/history/ | |
| ALHC | 8.65500000 | 8.56000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALHC/history/ | |
| AMD | 536.96000000 | 550.72340000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/ | |
| ANGX | 5.02500000 | 5.24000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ANGX/history/ | |
| C | 130.46500000 | 131.74500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/C/history/ | |
| CIFR | 16.72990000 | 17.19500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CIFR/history/ | |
| CUPR | 1.79000000 | 1.70060000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CUPR/history/ | |
| DLXY | 1.08000000 | 0.70010000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DLXY/history/ | |
| FLNC | 7.52500000 | 7.16000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FLNC/history/ | |
| GNRC | 210.51500000 | 203.76500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GNRC/history/ | |
| GS | 928.62500000 | 946.18700000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GS/history/ | |
| INTC | 108.83500000 | 108.47000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/ | |
| JBHT | 240.16000000 | 235.16000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JBHT/history/ | |
| MEDS | 5.11820000 | 5.01000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MEDS/history/ | |
| NBIS | 211.98000000 | 212.16000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NBIS/history/ | |
| SABR | 2.43000000 | 2.27500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SABR/history/ | |
| SMTC | 173.19000000 | 180.55000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMTC/history/ | |
| SPY | 760.45000000 | 759.08500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| SUNE | 2.89620000 | 2.53870000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SUNE/history/ | |
| SWKS | 87.76500000 | 88.70000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SWKS/history/ | |
| TSM | 424.76500000 | 431.39000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM/history/ | |
| UNFI | 46.50000000 | 45.79000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNFI/history/ | |
| WLTH | 10.18000000 | 10.15000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WLTH/history/ | |
| XBIO | 2.25500000 | 2.50000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XBIO/history/ |
Standard prompt extreme-movers-v8, SHA-256 624c986fcc1e42d28cac953223571844aa81d7aa070528372f1d14c99a1b16b5. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.