Asked Sep 18, 10:07 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, Muse Spark 1.1, Grok 4.5, Gemini 1.5 Pro and DeepSeek V3 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 18, 10:07 AM EDT to Sep 21, 10:07 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 4/5 | 80.00% | 4.59% | 1.11% | 3.49% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -0.46% | 1.11% | -1.56% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.19% | 1.11% | -0.92% |
| Grok 4.5 | 4/5 | 80.00% | 5.41% | 1.11% | 4.31% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 3/5 | 60.00% | 2.26% | 1.11% | 1.15% |
| DeepSeek V3 | 4/5 | 80.00% | 8.80% | 1.11% | 7.69% |
GPT-5.6 Sol
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Technology and AI-infrastructure shares are displaying the clearest relative strength while the broader market is close to flat. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened modestly higher as falling oil prices reduced immediate inflation pressure, but the 10-year Treasury yield remained near 5%, keeping the overall backdrop mixed. Semiconductor and optical-networking stocks are outperforming despite weak market breadth, so I favor companies directly exposed to memory, high-speed optical connectivity and AI data-center infrastructure. The main risk over the Friday-to-Monday window is renewed pressure from Treasury yields, geopolitical headlines or another reversal in AI sentiment.
- MU — confidence 76.0000%. Micron has one of the strongest combinations of fundamental momentum and relative price strength. The stock rose 5.50% on September 17 and remained higher in September 18 premarket trading. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said memory prices have risen roughly five- to sevenfold and that supply constraints could persist into next year, reinforcing the durability of Micron's DRAM and HBM pricing environment. Micron also recently began commercial production at its new semiconductor assembly and test facility in India, while its September 30 earnings report provides an approaching catalyst that can sustain investor attention. The main risks are the stock's exceptional 2026 appreciation, high beta, potential profit-taking after the recent rebound, and longer-term competitive pressure from Chinese memory manufacturers. The freshest stock quote I could verify was $991.98 in September 18 premarket trading; I could not verify a newer regular-session print from the accessible quote sources, so this reference price is stale relative to the already-open prediction window.
Return: 5.05%; alpha: 3.94%. - LITE — confidence 73.0000%. Lumentum is a direct beneficiary of the optical-connectivity bottleneck created by increasingly large AI clusters. Optical-networking stocks have emerged as some of the strongest technology shares this week because investors are distinguishing infrastructure with visible physical demand from more speculative areas of the AI trade. Lumentum surged 9.59% on September 16, pulled back 2.81% on September 17, and was again higher in September 18 premarket trading. MarketWatch identified Lumentum and Coherent among the leading S&P 500 gainers as semiconductor and optical stocks strengthened during Friday trading, supporting a relative-strength thesis versus SPY. Risks are very high volatility, a large year-to-date gain, a forward valuation that assumes continued AI infrastructure demand and the possibility that the recent move is primarily a snapback after the September 14 selloff. The freshest quote I could verify was $908.00 in September 18 premarket trading rather than a regular-session intraday quote.
Return: 6.27%; alpha: 5.16%. - COHR — confidence 71.0000%. Coherent has the same favorable AI-optical infrastructure exposure as Lumentum and has shown persistent relative strength since the sharp September 14 sector selloff. The stock gained 6.92% on September 16 and another 2.09% on September 17, while September 18 market coverage again identified Coherent among the strongest technology and optical names. Demand for high-speed lasers, transceivers and optical components should remain tied to continued scaling of AI data-center networks, which require rapidly increasing bandwidth between accelerators. The principal risks are extreme recent volatility, the possibility that the rebound has already captured much of the near-term recovery, and sensitivity to any renewed debate about slowing AI infrastructure investment. The freshest accessible September 18 quote I could verify was a $302.40 premarket print; I could not confirm a newer regular-session trade.
Return: 6.55%; alpha: 5.45%. - AVGO — confidence 69.0000%. Broadcom combines AI networking, custom accelerator and infrastructure-software exposure with renewed semiconductor-sector momentum. Shares gained 2.29% on September 17 after stabilizing from the September 14 AI selloff, and MarketWatch identified Broadcom among the semiconductor names showing notable strength on September 18 while the broader market had weak breadth. Broadcom's networking and custom-silicon businesses provide direct exposure to hyperscaler AI capital spending, making it less dependent on a single GPU architecture than some peers. Risks include elevated Treasury yields, sensitivity to hyperscaler spending expectations, a premium valuation and the possibility that broad semiconductor momentum fades into the weekend. The freshest quote I could verify was $350.73 in September 18 premarket trading; accessible sources did not expose a later regular-session print at research time.
Return: -0.46%; alpha: -1.57%. - LRCX — confidence 66.0000%. Lam Research offers leveraged fundamental exposure to rising semiconductor capital intensity as AI demand drives investment in advanced memory and leading-edge fabrication. Its latest fiscal year revenue increased roughly 26% and net income roughly 36%, while management previously guided above expectations as AI-related infrastructure spending supported equipment demand. The stock was among the semiconductor names showing notable relative strength on September 18 after suffering an 8.29% decline during the September 14 AI-sector selloff, leaving room for continued mean-reversion if sector sentiment stabilizes. Risks include sensitivity to global semiconductor capital-spending cycles, China exposure, high interest rates and the chance that the current rebound is only a short-lived reversal of an established downtrend. The freshest quote I could verify was $273.30 in September 18 premarket trading rather than a current regular-session trade.
Return: 5.56%; alpha: 4.46%.
Claude Opus 5
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This window is unusual in two ways and both shape the basket. First, it spans a weekend: it opens Friday morning and does not close until 10:07 ET Monday, so it carries two days of unhedgeable headline risk in a region where the Iran conflict keeps escalating. Second, today is September triple witching, with more than $1 trillion of notional in equity options, index options and index futures expiring simultaneously, arriving within hours of a Bank of Japan decision and two days after the Fed. TheStreet Pro's James DePorre warns it tends to produce heavy volume and sharp swings particularly in the final hour, and makes the key point that this is mechanical action rather than a shift in the fundamental view of the market. That argues against reading Friday's closing tape as signal and in favour of positions that rest on something other than momentum. The macro frame is now settled and it is the basis of my tilt: the Fed hiked 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday with 16 of 18 officials projecting at least one more hike this year, no cuts in 2027, and core inflation not returning to 2% until 2029. A central bank formally conceding above-target inflation for three more years is the cleanest possible endorsement of the debasement trade, and the metals are responding: TheStreet reports silver futures up 2.34% to $67.64 an ounce and gold futures up 0.49% to $4,421.30 in early trading, with Newmont rising 2.1% as UBS and RBC lifted targets to $155. The second live catalyst is geopolitical. The Trump administration approved a potential $24.3 billion sale of nearly 50 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, announced Thursday, comprising 48 Lockheed Martin jets and 49 Pratt and Whitney engines, as the kingdom faces intensifying attacks from Iran-backed Houthis; Lockheed traded up only 0.17% to $539 in pre-market, which suggests the order is not yet in the price. I want to be explicit that four of these five legs are correlated expressions of inflation-plus-geopolitics, which is a deliberate concentration on the two things I can actually verify happened rather than an accident of selection. The fifth is a growth hedge against that theme failing. The clearest risk to the whole construction is a de-escalation headline over the weekend, which would hit metals and defence together at Monday's open.
- GDX — confidence 57.0000%. Thesis: gold miners are the highest-beta liquid expression of what the Fed's own projections just legitimised. When the central bank publishes a grid showing core inflation above target until 2029 and no cuts in 2027, it is conceding that the real return on cash stays compressed while nominal prices keep rising, which is the precise condition under which bullion and its producers re-rate. The metals are confirming today, with silver futures up 2.34% to $67.64 and gold up 0.49% to $4,421.30 in early trading, and Newmont, GDX's second-largest holding at 10.81% of assets, rising 2.1% on UBS and RBC target increases to $155. Miners carry operating leverage to the metal price, so a 1% move in gold historically produces two to three times that in GDX, and the fund has returned 39.98% over the past year. Carrying this across a weekend is additive rather than risky, since gold is the asset that gaps up on geopolitical headlines rather than down. Risks: GDX sits at roughly $97 against a 52-week high of $117.18, so it is not at the highs and has already had a long run; a bearish technical pattern has been flagged in both GDX and Newmont in recent commentary. Higher nominal yields are a genuine headwind for a non-yielding asset, and a de-escalation headline would remove the geopolitical bid. Price note: $97.10 is a regular-session close from 14 September, four days stale, and it is the most recent quote I could verify; treat it as a level, not a live print. Source: www.investing.com/etfs/market-vectors-gold-miners, www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-sept-18-2026
Return: -1.27%; alpha: -2.37%. - LMT — confidence 55.0000%. Thesis: a specific, dated, substantive order catalyst that the market has barely priced. The Trump administration approved a potential $24.3 billion sale of nearly 50 F-35 jets to Saudi Arabia, announced Thursday, including 48 Lockheed Martin aircraft plus 49 Pratt and Whitney engines and associated parts, framed as improving the security of a major non-NATO ally facing intensifying Houthi attacks. Lockheed was up only 0.17% to $539 in pre-market against that headline, which is a strikingly muted response to a program award of that size, and orders of this type support production-line economics and sustainment revenue for years rather than quarters. The weekend exposure works in this leg's favour: further Houthi strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure over the next two days would reinforce rather than undermine the thesis at Monday's open. Risks: approval of a potential sale is not a signed contract, and F-35 export packages to Gulf states have historically faced congressional review and technology-transfer objections that can delay or shrink them. Defence names trade at elevated multiples after a long run, and triple-witching flows can override news entirely in today's final hour. A weekend de-escalation, of the kind the Financial Times has reported officials pursuing over Hormuz shipping, would hit this alongside ranks 1 and 3. Price note: this is a pre-market quote from today, the freshest I have in this basket. Source: www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-sept-18-2026
Return: -0.27%; alpha: -1.38%. - ITA — confidence 53.0000%. Thesis: the diversified version of rank 2, holding the broader aerospace and defence complex rather than a single contractor. The F-35 package names Lockheed for the airframes but also Pratt and Whitney for 49 engines, and large foreign military sales pull through a supply chain of subsystem and sustainment providers that a sector fund captures and a single name does not. The strategic backdrop is a conflict that keeps widening rather than resolving, with Saudi Arabia having shut its East-West pipeline, cancelled September cargoes to European refiners, and now facing intensifying Houthi attacks; defence procurement responds to the market's estimate of conflict duration rather than to any single day's oil price. Carrying that exposure over a weekend of live Middle East headlines is the point of including it. Risks: it shares rank 2's entire dependence on the geopolitical premium, so the diversification it appears to offer within the basket is smaller than it looks. Its beta to a broad risk-off session is close to one, so the likeliest failure is simply tracking SPY rather than beating it, and industrials were among the laggards in this week's earlier declines. Appropriations and continuing-resolution headlines are unforecastable over this horizon. Price note: I could not verify a current ITA quote at the moment of answering, so reference_price is omitted rather than invented. Source: www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-sept-18-2026
Return: 0.76%; alpha: -0.35%. - NEM — confidence 51.0000%. Thesis: the single-name version of rank 1, included because it carries its own fresh analyst catalyst rather than only the commodity move. Newmont rose 2.1% as UBS and RBC both lifted their price targets to $155, per coverage carried this week, which is two independent houses revising in the same direction within days of the Fed formally projecting above-target inflation through 2029. Newmont is the largest US-listed pure gold producer and GDX's second-biggest holding at 10.81% of assets, so it captures the same operating leverage to a $4,421 gold price with the added support of estimate revisions. In a window that spans a weekend, a producer with rising sell-side targets is more likely to attract Monday-morning flow than the sector broadly. Risks: I want to state plainly that this duplicates rank 1 rather than diversifying it, and a gold reversal takes both down together. Recent technical commentary has flagged a bearish pattern in Newmont specifically alongside GDX, warning against buying the dip. Single-name operational risk, mine disruptions, grade or cost surprises, is unhedged here in a way it is not in the ETF. Price note: I could not verify a current Newmont quote, so reference_price is omitted; the 2.1% move and the $155 targets are sourced but the underlying price level is not. Source: https://pomegra.io/news/1t-triple-witching-collides-with-boj-fed-in-sept-2026
Return: -1.18%; alpha: -2.29%. - GOOG — confidence 50.0000%. Thesis: the deliberate hedge against everything above. If the weekend brings de-escalation headlines and metals and defence give back their gains together, this is the leg that still works, because it depends on none of that. Alphabet trades at roughly 17 times trailing earnings with a 54.77% net margin on $445.9 billion of trailing revenue, which is the self-funding quality profile that has outperformed since the Fed confirmed higher-for-longer, and the market demonstrated that preference on Wednesday when the Dow fell 1.21% while the Nasdaq Composite closed flat. Two price-target raises landed this week, Evercore ISI to $450 from $420 and Mark Mahaney lifting his target while reaffirming Buy, both citing re-accelerating Search and AI, and the consensus target sits at $428.41 with 57 buy ratings and none to sell. Nvidia and Meta CEOs have publicly argued against the AI slowdown proposal that shook the sector on Monday. Risks: a judge ordered an antitrust monitor over the ad-tech business this week, which is real regulatory overhang and the clearest company-specific negative here. The stock has been in a correction since its May high of $404.47, and as a heavy index constituent it is squarely exposed to today's triple-witching pinning flows. Price note: $343.60 is an intraday quote from yesterday's session, one day stale, not a live print. Source: robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/GOOG/, www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/GOOG
Return: -0.33%; alpha: -1.43%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Sep 18 2026 Friday post-Fed: Fed raised Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75%-4.00% first hike since July 2023 per Freedom969 and Cambridge. Markets pricing 90%+ hike per Livemint, stocks pulled back after hike points to another hike this year. ADVFN SPY options Sep 17 show strikes 753-755 trading heavy volume 6k-40k with last 8-9.40 up 132-140% indicating ~754 SPY level. Finnhub Sep 18 live shows financials XLF $55.61 -0.48% previous close $55.88, energy XLE $64.36 -0.18% previous $64.48, JPM $346.26 -0.87% previous $349.31, NVDA $219.16 -0.08% previous $219.34. After 2-day digestion, oversold semis and rate-beneficiary financials likely to outperform SPY next session Sep 18-21.
- XLF — confidence 73.0000%. Financial Select Sector benefits from 3.75-4.00% Fed hike Sep 16 unanimous 12-0 per freedom969. Finnhub Sep 18 live $55.61 open $55.66 high $55.765 low $55.46 previous close $55.88 -0.27 -0.48% intraday washout after -5.04% 5-day -4.38% 1-month. Rate hike widens NIM. SPY ~754 flat. XLF oversold vs 52-week high $58.10 Aug 28 per Webull. Live intraday price used.
Return: 0.32%; alpha: -0.78%. - XLE — confidence 71.0000%. Energy Select Sector hedge after Saudi pipeline shut and Hormuz stalled supply driving Brent $106-107 per TalkMarkets Sep 15. Finnhub Sep 18 $64.36 open $64.20 high $64.505 low $64.10 previous close $64.48 -0.12 -0.18% holding YTD +43.95% 1Y +45.28% beta 0.48. Outperforms if inflation sticky post-hike. Live intraday Sep 18 used.
Return: -2.39%; alpha: -3.50%. - JPM — confidence 70.0000%. JPMorgan Chase top bank beneficiary of quarter-point hike Sep 16. Finnhub Sep 18 $346.26 open $347.89 high $348.15 low $345.01 previous close $349.31 -3.05 -0.87% 5-day -4.36% 1-month -4.57% but 6-month +22.16% YTD +7.46%. Strong trading desk into FOMC vol per earlier. Barchart Sep 17 showed JPM $356 +0.36% outperforming XLF. Live intraday Sep 18 used, bounce expected Monday.
Return: 1.60%; alpha: 0.49%. - NVDA — confidence 68.0000%. Nvidia semis leader oversold -4.07% 5-day -2.66% 1-month but 6-month +21.59% YTD +17.51% per Finnhub Sep 18. Current $219.16 open $219.35 high $220.07 low $218.03 previous close $219.34 -0.18 -0.08% flat after SOXL +9.9% bounce Sep 17. Motley Fool notes Mag 7 NVDA +2.54% Sep 17. 52-week high $236.54. Live intraday price Sep 18 used, mean reversion vs SPY.
Return: 1.73%; alpha: 0.62%. - GOOG — confidence 66.0000%. Alphabet Class C stable megacap $4.18T per ad-hoc-news Sep 18 price $341.74 vs 52-week high $404.47 low $236.68. Sep 17 Robinhood $343.45 high $344.70 low $337.45 +1.8% from low. Benefits from AI search and cloud, less rate-sensitive than unprofitable tech, 50-day $344.76 support. Analysts piling on buy calls per ad-hoc. Live Sep 18 price $341.74 used, defensive growth to outperform SPY ~754 flat.
Return: -0.33%; alpha: -1.43%.
Grok 4.5
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Post-Fed rate-hike rebound continues with Nasdaq and semiconductors leading on easing oil prices and stabilized yields. Risk appetite favors high-beta tech and AI-related names into the next session amid limited fresh catalysts and mixed index futures.
- AMD — confidence 68.0000%. Strong momentum from Thursday's 6.4% surge on chip sector rebound and AI demand resilience. High beta to Nasdaq leadership should drive outperformance versus SPY if risk-on continues. Risks include yield spikes or broader market profit-taking after the Fed move.
Return: 10.78%; alpha: 9.67%. - INTC — confidence 65.0000%. Led chip gains with 7.7% rise Thursday on foundry and AI optimism, high volume confirming interest. Positioned to extend relative strength in semiconductor rotation. Risks are valuation sensitivity to rates and potential dilution from capital needs.
Return: 9.05%; alpha: 7.95%. - SMCI — confidence 62.0000%. AI server pure-play jumped 9.5% Thursday amid data-center demand. Elevated volatility and beta favor further upside in a continued tech rally versus the broader SPY. Risks include high short interest and sensitivity to AI spending slowdown concerns.
Return: 5.09%; alpha: 3.98%. - NVDA — confidence 60.0000%. Core AI leader gained 2.5% Thursday and remains the primary beneficiary of semiconductor strength. Liquidity and index weight support relative outperformance on risk-on days. Risks are crowded positioning and any renewed AI valuation concerns.
Return: 1.73%; alpha: 0.62%. - AAPL — confidence 55.0000%. Noted in buy zones with iPhone product momentum and carrier promotions providing support. Mega-cap stability plus tech beta offers a defensive growth tilt versus SPY. Risks include consumer spending pressure from higher rates and limited near-term catalysts.
Return: 0.42%; alpha: -0.69%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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On September 18, 2026, the US equity market is exhibiting strong risk-on momentum. Investors are confidently looking past the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike, buoyed by a notable drop in initial jobless claims to 196,000, which has significantly alleviated hard landing fears. With the 10-year Treasury yield easing below the critical 5% threshold and Brent crude cooling toward $104 per barrel, a broad relief rally is taking hold. We expect high-growth technology, semiconductor leaders, and heavily traded retail brokerages to outperform the SPY benchmark as capital rotates back into growth-sensitive risk assets.
- NVDA — confidence 85.0000%. Thesis: With the Federal Reserve's rate hike digested and initial jobless claims decreasing, market sentiment has shifted rapidly back to high-growth tech. Nvidia continues to see robust trading volume and institutional backing, positioning it to outperform SPY as investors re-enter the premier AI infrastructure trade. Risks: Elevated valuation multiples remain highly sensitive to any sudden upward shifts in Treasury yields if inflation fears re-emerge.
Return: 1.73%; alpha: 0.62%. - MSFT — confidence 80.0000%. Thesis: Microsoft is exceptionally well-positioned to benefit from the post-FOMC drop in Treasury yields and resilient economic data. Its diversified enterprise software base and expanding AI infrastructure investments provide defensive growth characteristics capable of outpacing the broader S&P 500 benchmark. Risks: A sudden broader market rotation away from mega-cap tech into underperforming small-caps could dilute Microsoft's near-term relative strength.
Return: 0.70%; alpha: -0.41%. - HOOD — confidence 75.0000%. Thesis: Robinhood is surging in early trading, catching a strong bid as retail trading activity and risk-on sentiment accelerate in the wake of the Fed rate decision. Easing macroeconomic anxieties typically drive increased platform engagement and crypto trading, directly benefiting HOOD's transaction-based revenue model. Risks: The stock's high beta makes it exceptionally vulnerable to rapid intraday reversals if broader market sentiment sours unexpectedly.
Return: 6.64%; alpha: 5.54%. - CRWD — confidence 75.0000%. Thesis: CrowdStrike recently posted strong fiscal 2027 Q2 results, with revenue jumping 26% year-over-year to $1.47 billion alongside robust free cash flow. Despite a pre-market dip following CEO share sales, its underlying growth metrics and strong cybersecurity demand offer a compelling buy-the-dip opportunity to beat the market. Risks: The recent insider selling by the CEO and other directors could cap short-term momentum and spark further near-term profit-taking.
Return: 4.17%; alpha: 3.06%. - XOM — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Exxon Mobil is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range. Despite recent warnings from the CFO regarding hidden oil supply risks and Brent crude cooling slightly to $104, XOM's robust cash flows and defensive profile provide a strong portfolio hedge and potential outperformance in the event that the tech rally stalls. Risks: Any significant diplomatic breakthrough or a sudden, unexpected surge in global crude supply could cause oil prices to drop sharply, dragging XOM shares lower.
Return: -1.95%; alpha: -3.06%.
DeepSeek V3
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US equities are trading higher intraday, supported by relief that the Fed hike was largely priced in, a sharp rebound in semiconductors, and a crypto-linked rally. The S&P 500 is modestly positive, but triple witching and falling oil prices add cross-currents. Momentum favors high-beta tech and crypto-exposed names, though leverage and regulatory risks remain.
- SOXL — confidence 78.0000%. SOXL, the 3x leveraged semiconductor bull ETF, is riding a powerful sector rotation into semiconductors after the Fed decision. The fund was up over 10% in the prior session and remains in demand as chip stocks continue to lead. Its high beta to the semiconductor index makes it likely to outpace SPY on a strong risk-on day. Risks include severe leverage decay, high volatility, and the possibility of profit-taking after a sharp two-day run. Reference price is a live intraday quote from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 14.36%; alpha: 13.25%. - INTC — confidence 75.0000%. Intel surged 7.67% in the previous session on AI optimism and foundry progress, and it remains a high-beta momentum name that can outperform SPY on continued semiconductor strength. The stock is seeing active intraday trading and is supported by a broader chip rally. Risks include intense competition, negative earnings, and the potential for a sharp reversal if sector momentum fades. Reference price is a live intraday quote from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 9.05%; alpha: 7.95%. - COIN — confidence 72.0000%. Coinbase is a direct beneficiary of the crypto rally, with Bitcoin hovering near $78,000 and new SEC tokenized-stock policy boosting sentiment. COIN is up over 6% intraday and historically moves with high beta to crypto prices, which can lead to outperformance versus SPY during risk-on sessions. Risks include regulatory uncertainty, crypto price volatility, and the stock's sensitivity to a sudden reversal in digital-asset sentiment. Reference price is a live intraday quote from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 10.11%; alpha: 9.01%. - AMD — confidence 70.0000%. AMD is up over 6% in the prior session and continues to trade higher intraday, supported by reports of chip price hikes and strong AI-driven demand. As a high-beta semiconductor leader, AMD can outpace SPY when the sector rallies. Risks include high valuation, competition from Nvidia, and the possibility of a pullback after a rapid run. Reference price is a live intraday quote from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 10.78%; alpha: 9.67%. - GOOGL — confidence 65.0000%. Alphabet is showing relative strength, up over 2% intraday and benefiting from megacap tech leadership, AI initiatives, and resilient ad spending. In a market where breadth is narrow, GOOGL can outperform SPY due to its heavy weighting and positive momentum. Risks include antitrust headwinds, broader market reversal, and the stock's exposure to regulatory pressures. Reference price is a live intraday quote from Yahoo Finance.
Return: -0.32%; alpha: -1.42%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 3 | 33.33% | +0.47% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | 60.00% | -0.38% |
| Grok 4.5 | 8 | 40.00% | -0.47% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 7 | 42.86% | -0.48% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 6 | 43.33% | -0.55% |
| DeepSeek | 8 | 50.00% | -0.64% |
| Kimi | 1 | 20.00% | -0.70% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1 | 40.00% | -0.88% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 8 | 27.50% | -1.17% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 8 | 22.50% | -1.76% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 335.10010000 | 336.49500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AMD | 549.41500000 | 608.64500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/ | |
| AVGO | 358.64500000 | 356.98000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/ | |
| COHR | 306.69000000 | 326.79000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COHR/history/ | |
| COIN | 185.13500000 | 203.86000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN/history/ | |
| CRWD | 236.67500000 | 246.54500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD/history/ | |
| GDX | 95.13010000 | 93.92500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GDX/history/ | |
| GOOG | 350.50000000 | 349.36000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/history/ | |
| GOOGL | 354.59000000 | 353.47000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/ | |
| HOOD | 115.00000000 | 122.64000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HOOD/history/ | |
| INTC | 108.57000000 | 118.40000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/ | |
| ITA | 212.61000000 | 214.22000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITA/history/ | |
| JPM | 346.56000000 | 352.09880000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/history/ | |
| LITE | 910.82000000 | 967.93000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LITE/history/ | |
| LMT | 534.35000000 | 532.90000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/history/ | |
| LRCX | 277.25000000 | 292.67000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX/history/ | |
| MSFT | 493.06500000 | 496.50000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| MU | 990.89000000 | 1040.91000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NEM | 122.99000000 | 121.53500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NEM/history/ | |
| NVDA | 219.14500000 | 222.93000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| SMCI | 38.93000000 | 40.91000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI/history/ | |
| SOXL | 117.46500000 | 134.33000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/ | |
| SPY | 759.08000000 | 767.48000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| XLE | 64.38000000 | 62.84000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ | |
| XLF | 55.62000000 | 55.80000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLF/history/ | |
| XOM | 162.75000000 | 159.57000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 8883dcbe20450f29f6502f2347d0cc40374128fd43e3448e7e1c830a10227e95. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.