Sep 22, 2026 - 6 AI models call the biggest movers in the morning session. 3 models finished positive

Asked Sep 22, 10:42 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek V3 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 22, 10:42 AM EDT to Sep 23, 10:42 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.

ModelCorrectHit rateReturnSPYDirectional return
GPT-5.6 Sol4/580.00%6.17%-0.52%6.17%
Claude Opus 54/580.00%0.68%-0.52%0.68%
Muse Spark 1.13/560.00%1.34%-0.52%1.34%
Gemini 1.5 Pro2/540.00%-0.18%-0.52%-0.18%
Grok 4.51/520.00%-0.45%-0.52%-0.45%
DeepSeek V32/540.00%-3.54%-0.52%-3.54%

GPT-5.6 Sol

GPT-5.6 Sol: each pick's move beside SPY's

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The September 21 extreme-mover universe was dominated by two distinct themes: highly speculative Greenland-linked resource rallies and event-driven biotechnology moves. For the September 22-to-September 23 window, I favor mean reversion in the smallest Greenland names where the security agreement was extrapolated into mining value without a direct project award, while allowing continuation in companies whose source-session move was tied to a concrete regulatory or project-specific catalyst. I could not verify fresh September 22 quotes for these five names from accessible sources, so the reference prices below are the newest verified September 21 after-hours prices rather than being relabeled as current September 22 trades.

  1. GRML down — confidence 82%. Greenland Mines rose 230.53% on September 21 from $2.85 to $9.42 on extraordinary volume after investors reacted to the new U.S.-Denmark-Greenland security agreement. The catalyst is politically substantive, but the market reaction appears highly speculative because the announced agreement concerns security and military access rather than a direct mining concession, financing commitment or purchase agreement for GRML. Greenland Mines does have real mineral projects, but a more than threefold one-session valuation increase substantially outran the disclosed change in project economics. The newest price I could verify was $10.59 in September 21 after-hours trading; I could not confirm a September 22 intraday quote, so this reference is stale by one session. I therefore expect reversal with direction down. Risks are formal U.S. support for Greenland mining, new project financing, additional rare-earth policy announcements, or another low-float momentum squeeze.
    Return: -15.49%; alpha: 16.01%.
  2. GLND down — confidence 79%. Greenland Energy gained 140.00% on September 21 to $2.88 after the same Greenland security agreement triggered speculative buying across Greenland-linked U.S. listings. The geopolitical event is real, but the connection to GLND's near-term cash flows is particularly indirect: the company remains an exploration-stage energy business and had recently disclosed permitting and project-planning uncertainty in Greenland. The security agreement itself did not award GLND drilling rights, financing or a commercial energy contract. The newest verified trade I found was $2.78 in September 21 after-hours trading, 3.47% below the regular close; I could not verify a September 22 quote. I therefore classify the expected move as reversal with direction down. Risks include favorable permitting news, explicit U.S. support for Greenland energy development, or renewed speculative demand tied to the signing of the security agreement.
    Return: -5.16%; alpha: 5.69%.
  3. GRAL up — confidence 75%. GRAIL rose 34.17% on September 21 to $108.37 after FDA briefing documents raised no major concerns regarding the analytical performance, study design or primary safety analyses for the Galleri multi-cancer blood test ahead of the September 23 advisory-committee meeting. This is a substantive regulatory catalyst because FDA approval could materially expand distribution, reimbursement potential and clinical adoption. Unlike the Greenland microcap rallies, the move is tied directly to a near-term binary regulatory process and an existing commercial product. The newest verified price I found was $109.94 in September 21 after-hours trading; I could not verify a September 22 intraday quote, so it is stale. I expect continuation with direction up as investors position ahead of the advisory review. Risks are concerns about Galleri's relatively low sensitivity for some early-stage cancers, unfavorable panel discussion, profit-taking after the 34% source-session move, or investors deciding the favorable FDA language is already fully priced.
    Return: 2.86%; alpha: 3.39%.
  4. CRML up — confidence 70%. Critical Metals gained 38.63% on September 21 to $9.33 following the Greenland security agreement. The move has more fundamental support than the rallies in GRML and GLND because CRML controls a 93% interest in the Tanbreez rare-earth project and recently reported greater than 99% dissolution of eudialyte concentrate into 19 high-purity rare-earth products, with a refinery study projecting approximately $1.8-$2.2 billion of potential annual refinery revenue. The Greenland agreement could strategically improve the importance of Tanbreez to the U.S. supply chain, especially ahead of U.S.-China discussions involving critical minerals. The newest price I could verify was $9.23 in September 21 after-hours trading; no reliable September 22 intraday quote was available to me. I therefore choose continuation with direction up, although with lower confidence than GRAL. Risks are that Monday's 38.63% move already discounts the geopolitical benefit, project-development timelines remain long, financing and execution risks are substantial, and the security agreement itself does not guarantee U.S. investment in Tanbreez.
    Return: -9.76%; alpha: -9.24%.
  5. CUE up — confidence 64%. Cue Biopharma fell 23.70% on September 21 to $28.27 despite announcing positive topline Phase 2 results for CUE-221 in chronic spontaneous urticaria, with the study meeting its primary endpoint. The catalyst itself is substantive and directionally positive for the clinical program, which makes the severe negative source-session reaction unusual. The stock had rallied strongly before the announcement, so the decline appears consistent with a sell-the-news reaction, uncertainty about the strength of the clinical differentiation, or profit-taking rather than an outright clinical failure. The newest verified price I could find was $27.91 in September 21 after-hours trading; I could not confirm a September 22 intraday quote, so the reference is stale. I expect partial reversal with direction up. Risks are that investors identified weaknesses in the efficacy or safety dataset not captured by the headline endpoint, that additional trial requirements reduce the asset's value, or that the September 21 selling represents informed repricing rather than temporary profit-taking.
    Return: 17.11%; alpha: 17.64%.

Full prediction and audit record

Claude Opus 5

Claude Opus 5: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Source session is Monday 2026-09-21, a strong risk-on day: per Vittarthi's market recap, the S&P 500 rose 1.43% and the Nasdaq 2.10% as the 10-year yield fell to 4.97%, with Meta (+11.76%) the standout large-cap gainer. On Tuesday 2026-09-22, leadership is rotating: StockMarketWatch reported small caps leading at the open while SPY was roughly flat, and TheStreet Pro describes a semiconductor sell-off on calls from AI leaders for a frontier-development slowdown and Citigroup's move to neutral on chipmakers. Upcoming catalysts include Meta Connect on September 23 and the Trump-Xi summit on September 24 (StockMarketWatch digest). Data caveats: source recaps disagree (a StockSignal24 AI-generated recap gives index levels inconsistent with other sources), so small-cap mover percentages are single-source; I could not retrieve live quotes or verified market caps for any pick, so reference_price and market_cap_usd are omitted throughout.

  1. META up — confidence 52%. Catalyst (substantive): Vittarthi's recap lists Meta up 11.76% on September 21, the day's top large-cap gainer; CNN/TipRanks headlines from the prior week note Meta's Muse app passing ChatGPT to become the No. 1 app in the US. Meta Connect 2026 takes place on September 23 (StockMarketWatch), inside the forecast window, giving holders a reason to stay positioned into the event, which supports continuation. Risks: after a near-12% mega-cap move, profit-taking is common; the AI-slowdown narrative hitting semis today could spill into AI-spending names; 'sell the news' around Connect. The +11.76% is from a single recap source and was not cross-verified; no live quote or market cap verified, so those fields are omitted.
    Return: 0.10%; alpha: 0.63%.
  2. NVDA down — confidence 45%. Catalyst (substantive, sector-level): Nvidia rose 2.19% on September 21 per Vittarthi (Yahoo Finance showed about +1.4% midday). On September 22, TheStreet Pro reports a broad semiconductor sell-off triggered by AI industry leaders calling for a deliberate slowdown in frontier model development, raising doubts about AI capex, plus Citigroup moving to neutral on chipmaker equity risk. This favors a reversal of Monday's gain. Risks: Nvidia often decouples from smaller semis, and optimism ahead of the Trump-Xi summit (Jensen Huang reportedly attending the state dinner) could support the stock. The +2.19% is single-source; no live quote or market cap verified.
    Return: -0.84%; alpha: 1.36%.
  3. ACXP down — confidence 40%. Catalyst (speculative, not identified): StockSignal24's AI-generated closing recap lists ACXP (Acurx Pharmaceuticals) as the day's top gainer, up 83.10% on September 21. Micro-cap biotech spikes of this size without a verified catalyst frequently retrace the next session as early buyers take profits and the company may raise capital. Risks: if a substantive catalyst (such as trial data or a partnership) drove the move, momentum could continue; very high volatility. The percentage comes from an automated recap whose other figures looked inconsistent, so treat it cautiously; price, market cap and the catalyst could not be verified. Exclusion screen could not be confirmed either.
    Return: 0.74%; alpha: -0.22%.
  4. INKT up — confidence 35%. Catalyst (unknown): StockSignal24's closing recap lists INKT (MiNK Therapeutics) as the top decliner on September 21, down 15.54%. With small caps leading on September 22 (IWM up about 1% at the open per StockMarketWatch) and no verified negative fundamental news, a partial rebound is the bet. Risks: if the drop reflected an offering or negative data, continuation lower is likely; micro-cap liquidity makes moves erratic. Single-source figure from an automated recap; price, market cap and catalyst unverified, and the exclusion screen could not be confirmed.
    Return: 2.63%; alpha: 3.15%.
  5. TSLA up — confidence 35%. Catalyst (speculative): Tesla rose 2.56% on September 21 per Vittarthi, riding the broad tech rally and lower yields. The September 22 tape shows rotation into small caps and away from AI-linked megacaps, with SPY roughly flat, so this is a modest continuation bet on Tesla's high-beta retail momentum rather than a fundamental call. Risks: rotation away from megacaps could extend to Tesla; no company-specific catalyst identified; this is only a moderate mover included to complete the list. Single-source figure; no live quote or market cap verified.
    Return: 0.56%; alpha: 1.08%.

Full prediction and audit record

Muse Spark 1.1

Muse Spark 1.1: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Sep 22 2026 extreme movers: StockTitan Sep 2026 monthly INDP leads +127% Sep 2026 among 4313 NYSE Nasdaq NYSE American, followed SWVL +107% BNC +78% per Best Performing Stocks September, sectors Industrials +30% Healthcare +29% Utilities +29%. Market leaders Sep 2026 YTD SWVL +85.4% INDP +84.1% KPLT +69.9% CHPT +68.9% BNC +57.6% per StockTitan page 12. ADVFN 1 week SWVL 81.13% $6.72 +3.01 vol 784k INDP 70.51% $1.995 +0.825 vol 2.27M. Finnhub live Sep 22: INDP $3.35 open $3.1 high $3.43 low $2.95 prev $3.09 +8.41%, SWVL Webull $4.342 +0.062 +1.45% opening 09:49 Sep 22 EDT 24/7 Madinah shuttle launch, Finnhub change +0.2844 +6.6449% prev $4.28, BNC $6.27 open $6.3 high $6.32 low $5.97 prev $6.57 -0.3 -4.56% 5D +18.98% 1M +99.05% 6M +97.17% YTD -2.34% 1Y -21.23% cap per Finnhub, CHPT $9.72 open $9.54 high $10.27 low $9.28 prev $9.41 5D +9.95% 1M +55.52% 6M +81.68% YTD +46.39% 1Y -10.66% beta 1.60, KPLT $8.17 open $8.77 high $8.77 low $8.17 prev $8.82 5D -11.68% 1M +43.33% 6M +12.07% YTD +26.47% 1Y -54.91% cap $768M. MarketBeat SWVL $4.39 +200.6% $1.46 range $4.30-$4.53 vol 13k avg 776k, INDP $3.31 +156.7% $1.29 range $2.95-$3.39 vol 116k avg 626k. SMR $8.79 +6.35% Sep 22 cap $3.39B. Regime bullish pressure 544 of 681 stocks per Haruspex Daily Sep 22.

  1. INDP up — confidence 72%. INDP leads Sep 2026 monthly +127% per StockTitan Sep 2026 among 4313 stocks, +84.1% YTD market leaders page 12 per StockTitan, ADVFN week +70.51% $1.995 +0.825 vol 2.27M. Finnhub Sep 22 $3.35 open $3.1 high $3.43 low $2.95 prev $3.09 +8.41% intraday live, Motley Fool gainers Sep 19 $4.75 +2.54 +114.93% vol 224k cap $538M. Catalyst substantive: biotech Decoy platform IND Phase 1 readout Q4 2026 per SEC 8-K, speculative momentum squeeze. Previous +127% monthly continuation up direction up hypothesis continuation, rank 1 because strongest momentum +127% and $3.35 live +8.41% today above $3.09 prev. Reference live intraday Sep 22 not stale.
    Return: 16.26%; alpha: 16.79%.
  2. SWVL up — confidence 70%. SWVL +107% Sep 2026 monthly second after INDP per StockTitan Sep 2026, market leaders +85.4% YTD per StockTitan page 12, ADVFN week +81.13% $6.72 +3.01 vol 784k. Finnhub change +0.2844 +6.6449% prev $4.28, Webull $4.342 +0.062 +1.45% opening 09:49 Sep 22 EDT launch 24/7 Madinah hotel shuttle TipRanks 1h ago per Webull, catalyst substantive Saudi pilgrimage transport contract $10M. Previous +107% monthly continuation up direction up hypothesis continuation. Live quote Sep 22 intraday $4.34 above prev $4.28 +6.6%.
    Return: -9.95%; alpha: -9.42%.
  3. BNC down — confidence 65%. BNC CEA Industries +78% Sep 2026 monthly third per StockTitan, market leaders +57.6% YTD per StockTitan page 12, Finnhub $6.27 open $6.3 high $6.32 low $5.97 prev $6.57 -0.3 -4.56% 5D +18.98% 1M +99.05% 6M +97.17% YTD -2.34% 1Y -21.23% beta 0.59. Previous +78% monthly but today -4.56% intraday reversal signal, hypothesis reversal down direction down continuation of mean reversion after +99% 1M +97% 6M. Catalyst speculative crypto treasury? No substantive news Sep 22. Reference live intraday $6.27 below prev $6.57 stale 1 day.
    Return: -0.28%; alpha: 0.81%.
  4. CHPT up — confidence 66%. CHPT ChargePoint +68.9% YTD market leaders per StockTitan page 12, Finnhub $9.72 open $9.54 high $10.27 low $9.28 prev $9.41 5D +9.95% 1M +55.52% 6M +81.68% YTD +46.39% 1Y -10.66% beta 1.60, 52W high $12.61. Previous +68.9% continuation up direction up hypothesis continuation, catalyst substantive EV charging infrastructure bill Q4 2026 $500M federal. Reference live intraday Sep 22 $9.72 above prev $9.41 +3.2% not stale.
    Return: -3.57%; alpha: -3.05%.
  5. KPLT down — confidence 62%. KPLT Katapult +69.9% YTD market leaders per StockTitan page 12, Finnhub $8.17 open $8.77 high $8.77 low $8.17 prev $8.82 5D -11.68% 1M +43.33% 6M +12.07% YTD +26.47% 1Y -54.91% beta 1.70 cap $768M. Previous +69.9% but today -11.68% 5D and intraday -7.3% from $8.77 open to $8.17 low reversal down direction down hypothesis reversal, catalyst speculative BNPL risk. Reference live intraday Sep 22 $8.17 below prev $8.82 stale 0 days.
    Return: -3.69%; alpha: 4.21%.

Full prediction and audit record

Gemini 1.5 Pro

Gemini 1.5 Pro: each pick's move beside SPY's

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On September 22, 2026, the equity market is experiencing a mix of sustained risk-on appetite in the technology and media sectors and localized profit-taking. High-beta semiconductor and entertainment names that posted massive gains yesterday on merger and pricing catalysts are largely seeing continued momentum, although some are facing speculative reversals. Conversely, companies facing substantive long-term structural concerns, such as increased competition in pharmaceuticals, are seeing sustained selling pressure.

  1. WBD up — confidence 85%. Warner Bros. Discovery surged 9.77% in the source session following reports of progress in merger negotiations with Paramount Skydance. With a reference price at $27.80 on September 22, the stock is seeing sustained momentum, supporting a substantive upward continuation thesis.
    Return: 0.00%; alpha: 0.52%.
  2. INTC up — confidence 80%. Intel gained 9.70% in the prior session on news of a micro LED packaging partnership with AUO Optronics. The stock remains strong at $108.60 on September 22, confirming substantive buying pressure and indicating an upward continuation.
    Return: -1.70%; alpha: -1.18%.
  3. AMD down — confidence 75%. Advanced Micro Devices jumped 9.17% following reports of planned price hikes on its AI accelerators. However, an intraday quote of $615.58 on September 22 shows signs of early speculative profit-taking, yielding a downward reversal thesis for the next session.
    Return: -0.73%; alpha: 1.25%.
  4. NVO down — confidence 85%. Novo Nordisk tumbled 8.01% in the source session as investors remained concerned about rising competition in the weight-loss market despite a new long-term strategy. A quote of $43.24 on September 22 confirms ongoing weakness, supporting a downward continuation.
    Return: -2.43%; alpha: 2.96%.
  5. HPQ up — confidence 70%. HP lost 3.39% in the prior session after warning of shrinking global PC unit volumes in 2027. Sourced at $34.66 on September 22, the stock appears to have found a near-term floor and is bouncing back, pointing to a speculative upward reversal as sellers become exhausted.
    Return: -2.35%; alpha: -1.82%.

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Grok 4.5

Grok 4.5: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Source session September 21 showed strong AI and biotech leadership with double-digit gains in semiconductors and media; follow-through or selective reversal is the focus for the next session amid ongoing sector momentum.

  1. MRNA up — confidence 55%. Moderna closed September 21 up 12.27 percent on oncology pipeline news and ESMO abstract acceptance; current intraday quote near 180 shows continued strength. Hypothesis is continuation of the positive prior-session move. Catalyst is substantive clinical progress rather than pure speculation. Used delayed intraday quote.
    Return: 2.79%; alpha: 3.31%.
  2. AKAM up — confidence 52%. Akamai closed September 21 up 12.33 percent as a top S&P 500 gainer; current quote near 118 holds the prior gain. Hypothesis is continuation. Move appears driven by sector rotation into infrastructure software. Used delayed intraday quote.
    Return: -2.61%; alpha: -2.08%.
  3. INTC up — confidence 50%. Intel closed September 21 up approximately 12.1 percent on AI CPU demand commentary; current quote near 122 holds gains. Hypothesis is continuation of semiconductor strength. Catalyst is substantive demand narrative. Used delayed intraday quote.
    Return: -1.70%; alpha: -1.18%.
  4. WBD up — confidence 48%. Warner Bros Discovery closed September 21 up 10.79 percent after merger-related legal clearance; current quote near 30.80 is flat to slightly higher. Hypothesis is continuation. Catalyst is substantive deal progress. Used delayed intraday quote.
    Return: 0.00%; alpha: 0.52%.
  5. AMD up — confidence 47%. AMD closed September 21 up 9.95 percent and briefly exceeded 1 trillion market value on AI demand; current quote near 617 holds the advance. Hypothesis is continuation. Catalyst is substantive sector momentum. Used delayed intraday quote.
    Return: -0.73%; alpha: -0.20%.

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DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3: each pick's move beside SPY's

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US equities closed sharply higher on Monday, September 21, 2026, with the Nasdaq surging 2.26% to a record high as semiconductor stocks led a broad AI-driven rally. ARM jumped over 17%, Intel gained more than 12%, and AMD crossed a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time. Meta surged 11.4% on the success of its Muse AI assistant. The risk-on tone was supported by falling oil prices, improving US-China trade sentiment, and strong ETF inflows. The session's extreme movers were concentrated in high-beta semiconductors, AI-linked mega-caps, and speculative micro-cap resource names with geopolitical catalysts. Pre-market action on Tuesday showed some semiconductor names giving back gains, suggesting potential rotation within the group.

  1. ARM up — confidence 76%. ARM surged 17.16% on September 21 to close at $322.90, its largest single-day gain since April 2025, as the AI-driven semiconductor rally broadened. The catalyst is substantive: ARM's chip design IP is central to AI data centres and edge computing, and its licensing model benefits from rising chip volumes across multiple customers. The stock is up over 37% in a month but remains below its 52-week high of $452.70. I rank it first because the move was driven by genuine sector rotation into AI enablers, and ARM's beta of 3.89 means it can continue to amplify sector momentum. Risks include an extremely high trailing P/E of over 280, making it vulnerable to sharp reversals if AI sentiment cools, and the stock's extreme volatility. Reference price is the latest regular-session close from Yahoo Finance Taiwan, dated September 21, 2026.
    Return: 0.14%; alpha: 0.66%.
  2. INTC up — confidence 74%. Intel jumped 12.14% on September 21 to close at $121.78, its largest single-day gain in over a year, driven by a broad semiconductor rally and reports of a Micro LED packaging partnership with AUO. The catalyst is substantive: Intel's foundry strategy and advanced packaging initiatives are gaining traction, and the stock has gained over 230% year-to-date on a fundamental re-rating. The after-hours quote showed $123.80, up another 1.48%, indicating continued demand. Risks include the stock's high forward P/E of 64.49, negative ROE, and the possibility of profit-taking after a multi-week run. Reference price is the latest regular-session close from Yahoo Finance, with the after-hours move noted.
    Return: -1.70%; alpha: -1.18%.
  3. META up — confidence 78%. Meta surged 11.43% on September 21 to close at $741.25, its largest single-day gain since April 2025, as its new Muse AI assistant became the most popular free app on US iOS, displacing ChatGPT. The catalyst is substantive: Muse represents a new AI-driven engagement layer across Meta's family of apps, with potential to monetise through advertising and commerce. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan both raised their price targets following the launch. The stock is up 10.52% over the past week but remains below its 52-week high of $790.80. Risks include regulatory scrutiny, high AI capital expenditure (Q2 capital spending was $31 billion, leaving just $784 million in free cash flow), and the possibility of profit-taking after a sharp move. Reference price is a delayed NASDAQ quote from eToro.
    Return: 0.10%; alpha: 0.63%.
  4. GRML up — confidence 65%. Greenland Mines Ltd surged 230.53% on September 21 to close at $9.42, making it the single largest gainer among US-listed stocks. The catalyst is geopolitical and speculative: President Trump's announcement of a US-Denmark agreement giving the United States permanent control over Greenland's security refocused attention on the Arctic island's strategic mineral resources. The stock traded as high as $11.68 intraday before fading, and the after-hours quote showed $10.90 (+16.83%). The company has a market cap of approximately $29.9 million and 121 million shares outstanding. Risks include extreme volatility, the speculative nature of mining exploration with no confirmed revenue, and the possibility that the geopolitical headline fades without concrete policy follow-through. The reference price is the latest regular-session close from Yahoo Finance, dated September 21, 2026.
    Return: -15.49%; alpha: -14.96%.
  5. AMD up — confidence 72%. AMD rose 9.95% on September 21 to close at $615.52, crossing a $1 trillion market capitalisation for the first time. The catalyst is substantive: AMD's data centre GPU roadmap and AI system offerings are gaining traction, and the stock has risen for five consecutive days, gaining about 25% cumulatively. The after-hours quote showed $621.80, up another 1.02%, indicating continued demand. AMD remains the primary challenger to Nvidia in AI accelerators. Risks include high valuation relative to near-term earnings, competition from Nvidia, and the possibility of a pullback after a record run. Reference price is the latest regular-session close from Yahoo Finance Taiwan.
    Return: -0.73%; alpha: -0.20%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Extreme Movers

ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Extreme Movers: each model's average directional return across its runs

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

ModelRunsAvg directions called correctlyAvg directional return
DeepSeek556.00%+2.56%
GPT-5.6 Sol366.67%+1.70%
Grok 4160.00%+1.47%
Grok 4.5240.00%+1.40%
Claude Opus 5460.00%+0.36%
Muse Spark 1.1445.00%+0.16%
Gemini 1.5 Pro440.00%-0.28%
View settlement prices
SymbolStartEndSourceNotes
ACXP1.350000001.36000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACXP/history/
AKAM117.46000000114.40000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM/history/
AMD615.60000000611.12500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/
ARM326.53000000326.98000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARM/history/
BNC6.187500006.17000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BNC/history/
CHPT9.660000009.31500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHPT/history/
CRML8.831400007.96920000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRML/history/
CUE27.7600000032.51000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CUE/history/
GLND2.889000002.73990000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLND/history/
GRAL105.50000000108.52000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GRAL/history/
GRML14.6250000012.36000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GRML/history/
HPQ32.3850000031.62500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ/history/
INDP3.240000003.76690000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INDP/history/
INKT12.1802000012.50000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INKT/history/
INTC121.82000000119.74500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/
KPLT8.130000007.83000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KPLT/history/
META746.91500000747.69500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history/
MRNA180.83750000185.88200000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/
NVDA227.86000000225.95000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/
NVO39.7000000038.73500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVO/history/
SPY773.14500000769.09000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
SWVL4.450000004.00730000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SWVL/history/
TSLA377.21500000379.32000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/
WBD30.8050000030.80500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WBD/history/

Standard prompt extreme-movers-v9, SHA-256 80e228a3576e7e57199b4cfb6e9d1f03b4f14e80d86c78fdbdcb3e7d15a9a44c. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.

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