Sep 25, 2026 - 7 AI models trade the opening gap in the morning session. 6 models beat SPY from the open

Asked Sep 25, 10:30 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5.5, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: 2026-09-25 to 2026-09-28 (1 trading session). Benchmark: SPY.

Long positions scored on the target session’s open-to-close return minus SPY’s. Gap calls are graded separately. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY from the open.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Intraday alpha
GPT-5.6 Sol	3/5	60.00%	-0.16%	-0.36%	0.20%
Claude Opus 5.5	1/5	20.00%	-1.91%	-0.36%	-1.56%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	4/5	80.00%	1.13%	-0.36%	1.48%
Muse Spark 1.1	4/5	80.00%	6.73%	-0.36%	7.09%
Perplexity	2/5	40.00%	4.65%	-0.36%	5.01%
Grok 4.5	3/5	60.00%	0.06%	-0.36%	0.42%
DeepSeek	4/5	80.00%	6.30%	-0.36%	6.65%

GPT-5.6 Sol

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Friday trading is being driven by company-specific AI announcements and analyst actions against a broadly stable index backdrop. For the September 28 open, the strongest weekend carryover candidate is AKAM because its Anthropic contract materially changes its revenue outlook, while MSFT has a fresh product catalyst. NKE and CMCSA face company-specific negative analyst revisions that could continue to weigh on Monday's opening auction, although both have meaningful emotional-continuation and oversold-rebound risk. COST delivered objectively strong earnings but received a muted initial reaction, leaving room for modest positive reassessment rather than a large earnings gap.

1. AKAM — confidence 82%. The catalyst has occurred: Akamai disclosed an $11.6 billion seven-year Anthropic cloud-services commitment and a warrant that could give Anthropic up to a 5% stake. Reuters reported that AKAM initially surged about 22% in extended trading, and Friday trading still showed substantial gains, indicating a genuine valuation reset rather than a minor headline reaction. The contract is unusually large relative to Akamai's existing cloud business and provides multi-year demand visibility. I expect favorable weekend analyst and investor reassessment to support another gap up on September 28, although the forecast magnitude is far smaller than the original after-hours reaction because much of the news is already reflected in Friday's price. Emotional continuation risk is high in both directions: momentum buying could produce a larger gap, while profit-taking and concern about roughly $5.5 billion of associated capital expenditure could sharply reduce or reverse it. For open-to-close scoring, I still expect positive relative momentum after the open, but Monday could be volatile after Friday's large repricing. The latest price I could verify while researching was $117.53 on September 25.
   Return: -3.42%; alpha: -3.06%.
2. MSFT — confidence 71%. The catalyst has occurred: Microsoft unveiled new Copilot capabilities including natural-language application generation through Code, an always-on Autopilot agent and direct Word, Excel and PowerPoint integration. Reuters reported that the shares rose about 3% in early Friday trading, showing immediate investor recognition of the announcement. The catalyst reinforces Microsoft's attempt to turn Copilot into a broader enterprise operating layer rather than merely a chatbot, and planned early-access rollouts at the end of the month provide a near-term follow-through narrative. I forecast a smaller Monday gap because the announcement is already public and Friday's session absorbs much of the first reaction. The main risks are weekend profit-taking, skepticism about monetization, enterprise security concerns and broader AI-sector de-risking. Open-to-close, I expect the stock to retain modest relative strength if the market continues rewarding enterprise-AI monetization. The most recent price surfaced by the quote source during research was $497.59 on September 25.
   Return: 0.74%; alpha: 1.10%.
3. NKE — confidence 69%. The negative catalyst has occurred: Bank of America downgraded Nike to Underperform from Neutral and cut its price objective to $30, arguing that the company's recovery is likely to arrive roughly one fiscal year later than previously expected. Friday's decline was company-specific while consumer discretionary benchmarks and major athletic peers were comparatively resilient, which increases the probability that the bearish information continues to be incorporated rather than being dismissed as a broad-market move. I therefore forecast a Monday gap down. However, NKE is already near a 52-week low after a very large year-to-date decline, so emotional continuation risk is substantial: another wave of pessimism could make the gap larger, while bargain hunting could produce an immediate open-to-close rebound. Because the experiment scores a long portfolio on open-to-close performance, the thesis is that a weak opening auction may exhaust some forced selling and permit stabilization or a partial recovery during Monday's session. The exact time Bank of America issued the downgrade was not available in the evidence I found; event_time therefore uses the timestamp of the dated report documenting it. The latest price visible in that source during research was $35.42.
   Return: 2.62%; alpha: 2.98%.
4. CMCSA — confidence 67%. The catalyst has occurred: KeyBanc downgraded Comcast to Underweight and set an $18 target, focusing on persistent broadband market-share losses to fiber and fixed-wireless competitors. Friday's roughly 2% decline occurred while SPY was initially higher and AT&T and Verizon were close to flat, supporting the interpretation that the move was company-specific. The downgrade attacks Comcast's largest operating business rather than a temporary accounting item, making weekend continuation plausible and supporting a Monday gap-down forecast. Emotional continuation risk is meaningful because the stock has already fallen substantially in 2026 and trades at a low valuation; value buyers could absorb additional weakness quickly. For the open-to-close long score, that oversold valuation and the possibility of bargain buying after another weak open are the main reasons to retain it despite forecasting a negative gap. The exact analyst-release time was unavailable in the evidence, so event_time uses the publication timestamp of the report documenting the downgrade. The latest price displayed by the source during research was $21.62.
   Return: -0.59%; alpha: -0.24%.
5. COST — confidence 62%. The earnings catalyst has occurred: Costco reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $6.60 versus a $6.53 LSEG estimate, revenue of $95.72 billion versus $94.86 billion expected and comparable sales excluding gas and foreign exchange growth of 6.7% versus 6.11% expected. Despite those beats, Reuters reported the stock was essentially flat in extended trading and a Friday premarket quote was $889.07, indicating that expectations were already demanding. That muted initial response limits the probability of a dramatic delayed gap, but the clean sales, earnings and traffic evidence creates potential for positive weekend reassessment as analysts update estimates. I therefore forecast only a modest gap up on Monday. Emotional-continuation risk is asymmetric: a positive analyst cycle could strengthen the opening move, while investors could instead focus on valuation and treat the beat as already priced in. For open-to-close scoring, COST's defensive consumer profile and demonstrated demand resilience may offer relative support if the broad market weakens. The latest price I could directly verify during research was the delayed September 25 premarket quote of $889.07 rather than a later regular-session print.
   Return: -0.16%; alpha: 0.20%.

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Claude Opus 5.5

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Heading into the Monday, September 28 session, the tape is mildly risk-on but headline-sensitive. Brent crude has eased to about $105 on speculation about a Strait of Hormuz reopening, Treasury yields have backed off multi-decade highs, and semiconductors, led by server-CPU names, remain the leadership group after the Akamai-Anthropic CPU infrastructure deal. The Trump-Xi Washington summit wraps up Friday with little expectation of new Boeing orders; the focus is on a trade-truce extension, AI safeguards, soybeans and rare earths. The weekend carries two binary risks: US-Iran and Hormuz headlines, which could move oil sharply either way, and an FDA action date on Saturday, September 26 for Mirum's zilurgisertib. Monday's scheduled calendar is thin (Dallas Fed manufacturing at 10:30 ET; only micro-cap earnings before the open), so Monday gaps should be driven mainly by weekend news and positioning ahead of Tuesday's Carnival (pre-market) and Micron (after close) reports. I expect modest upside gaps in AI semiconductors and a larger, binary gap in MIRM. A volatility gauge on track for its largest weekly jump in over a year argues for small gap sizes outside the event-specific name.

1. MU — confidence 52%. Thesis: Micron reports fiscal Q4 2026 results after Tuesday's close, with a very high consensus EPS near $31 amid AI-driven memory shortages and strong pricing power. Monday is the first full session of earnings week, and memory names typically see pre-report positioning. The AI-infrastructure news flow also supports Micron: Akamai said its Anthropic build-out includes pre-purchasing high-demand memory hardware, and semiconductor leadership remains intact. I expect a modest gap up and positive open-to-close drift as buyers position before the print. Risks: expectations above $1,000 per share are extreme, so traders may de-risk ahead of the event, turning Monday into a flat or down day after an early gap. A weekend oil or geopolitical shock would hit high-beta semiconductors hardest. Expectations vs facts: the earnings date and consensus are reported; the results themselves are unknown and occur after the target session. Price note: 1,080.53 is an overnight quote from about 3:14 AM ET on 2026-09-25, shown in the related-tickers panel of the Yahoo Finance AMD quote page, not a live regular-session quote.
   Return: -2.04%; alpha: -1.69%.
2. MIRM — confidence 50%. Thesis: The FDA's Priority Review action date for zilurgisertib, Mirum's oral ALK2 inhibitor for fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP), falls on Saturday, September 26. As of this answer, no decision has been announced. A decision disclosed after Friday's close or over the weekend would show up in Monday's opening gap. Base case is approval: Leerink said the data position the drug for approval despite the primary-endpoint miss, and it would be the first oral FOP therapy in the US. With the stock near $90, far below the ~$138 average analyst target, approval could produce a sizable up-gap and potentially further buying as the launch is priced in. Risks: this is binary. The pivotal PROGRESS Cohort 1 primary endpoint was not statistically significant (p=0.0986), so a Complete Response Letter is a real possibility and would likely cause a larger gap down. If the decision lands during Friday's session, Monday's gap would be small. Biotech approvals are also often sold on the news. Expectations vs facts: the PDUFA date is officially scheduled; the outcome is unknown. Price note: 90.49 is a pre-market quote from 8:50 AM ET on 2026-09-25 (prior regular-session close 89.36 on 2026-09-24) from StockAnalysis.com.
   Return: -2.27%; alpha: -1.91%.
3. AMD — confidence 48%. Thesis: AMD is the leading beneficiary of the server-CPU narrative. Bank of America raised its price target by $100 on Friday, arguing the Anthropic-Akamai CPU infrastructure deal further supports CPU importance in agentic AI. The stock set a record near $630.80 on September 24, has passed $1T in market cap, and has momentum from a reported 10% Q4 price increase. Follow-through analyst notes and sustained retail enthusiasm could produce a modest Monday up-gap if Friday closes firm. Risks: price already exceeds the average analyst target (about $617), and valuation is roughly 156x trailing earnings with beta near 2.5. A weekend risk-off shock or Friday profit-taking could flip the gap negative, and extended momentum names often fade from the open. Expectations vs facts: the BofA price-target hike and the Akamai-Anthropic deal have occurred; any further analyst revisions over the weekend are anticipated, not confirmed. Price note: 641.58 is an overnight (Blue Ocean ATS) quote from about 3:14 AM ET on 2026-09-25 on Yahoo Finance; the prior regular-session close was 629.26.
   Return: -2.73%; alpha: -2.37%.
4. INTC — confidence 46%. Thesis: Intel is the second major way to play the AI-agent server-CPU theme. The BofA note on the Akamai-Anthropic deal flagged Intel alongside AMD and Arm as potential beneficiaries. Intel has rallied more than 35% in a month on renewed CPU demand and a report that SK Hynix is exploring a deal with it, and it was indicated about 3.9% higher overnight. Continued inflows into CPU names could produce another modest Monday up-gap. Risks: the move is extended and partly driven by an unconfirmed SK Hynix report; any denial or clarification over the weekend would reverse it quickly. Profit-taking in the CPU basket and weekend macro shocks are further downside risks. Expectations vs facts: the CPU-demand narrative and the Akamai deal are reported facts; the SK Hynix deal is an unconfirmed report and further upgrades are speculative. Price note: 127.39 is an overnight quote from the morning of 2026-09-25, shown in the related-tickers panel of the Yahoo Finance AMD quote page, not a live regular-session quote.
   Return: -3.85%; alpha: -3.50%.
5. CCL — confidence 45%. Thesis: Carnival reports fiscal Q3 results before the open on Tuesday, September 29, so Monday is the positioning session. The stock has fallen about 27% since August on oil, and Carnival is the only major cruise line without fuel hedges, making it the most oil-sensitive large-cap consumer name. Brent easing to about $105 on Hormuz-reopening speculation, together with stable-to-positive booking and card-spending data cited by BofA, sets up a short-covering and relief bid if weekend oil headlines stay constructive. The stock is also trading far below the ~$35 average analyst target. Risks: the gap direction depends heavily on weekend US-Iran and Hormuz headlines; a breakdown in talks and an oil spike would produce a gap down. A string of analyst price-target cuts (Goldman, Deutsche Bank, TD Cowen, JPMorgan, BofA) signals weak Q4 fuel-cost expectations, and holders may avoid owning the stock into the print. Expectations vs facts: the earnings date and call time are officially scheduled; Hormuz progress is an uncertain expectation. Price note: 21.79 is the regular-session close on 2026-09-24 from Morningstar; I could not retrieve a live intraday quote for 2026-09-25.
   Return: 1.33%; alpha: 1.68%.

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Gemini 1.5 Pro

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Broader market indices are trading mixed as investors balance elevated Treasury yields and rising oil prices against signs of potential macroeconomic stabilization. Going into the Monday open, we expect stock-specific catalysts, including public stock offerings, FDA approvals, and pre-earnings analyst downgrades, to drive significant opening gaps independent of the broader market's directional bias.

1. STFS — confidence 90%. Star Fashion Culture Holdings priced a substantial 12 million share public offering at $0.80, which is drastically below its recent trading levels near $3.55. Such a highly dilutive event typically forces a significant realignment of the stock price towards the offering price as the market digests the influx of new supply. The primary risk to this downside forecast is heavy retail short covering or structural support delaying the full adjustment.
   Return: 0.71%; alpha: 1.07%.
2. NKE — confidence 85%. Nike is experiencing intense downward pressure following a harsh downgrade by Bank of America ahead of its October 1 earnings report. The analyst highlighted fragility in Nike's turnaround efforts and set a conservative $30 price target. This negative sentiment shift late in the week sets the stage for a continuation gap lower on Monday as institutional investors de-risk ahead of the print. The main risk is an unexpected pre-release of positive news countering the downgrade.
   Return: 2.62%; alpha: 2.98%.
3. WKEY — confidence 75%. WISeKey's announcement regarding its cross-border merger and subsequent name change to WISeQey Corp provides clarity on its corporate restructuring. The finalization of the share election process removes an overhang of uncertainty, which should invite bullish momentum at the next session's open. The primary risk is a potential "sell-the-news" reaction if investors feel the merger was already fully priced in.
   Return: -0.66%; alpha: -0.30%.
4. MRK — confidence 70%. Merck secured FDA approval for the combination of Welireg and Lenvima to treat adult patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). This adds a crucial revenue stream to their oncology portfolio. Positive pipeline and regulatory news typically cause an upward gap for large-cap pharmaceuticals as forward revenue estimates are adjusted upwards. The risk is that the broader healthcare sector weakness drags down the upside potential.
   Return: 0.70%; alpha: 1.06%.
5. WDAY — confidence 65%. A recent SEC Form 4 filing revealed that Workday Director David Duffield sold approximately $19.1 million worth of shares. While insider selling can occur for a variety of personal financial reasons, high-value liquidations by executives often spook retail and institutional investors, leading to negative sentiment and a gap down on the following session's open. The risk to this thesis is that the market dismisses the sale as routine estate planning.
   Return: 2.25%; alpha: 2.61%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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SPY flat on Sep 25 as market digests gains. Next regular open Sep 28 Monday faces weekend catalyst overhang: Costco earnings already beat on Sep 24 driving +2.3% Sep 25, Nike scheduled Sep 29 creating de-risk, and high-impact FDA PDUFA for Mirum/Incyte zilurgisertib on Sep 26 Saturday expected to drive gap Monday. Small-cap Kandi earnings BMO Sep 28 adds gap risk. Bias is selective gaps up in FDA names, modest continuation up for COST, down pre-earnings for NKE.

1. MIRM — confidence 72%. MIRM has FDA Priority Review PDUFA for zilurgisertib in FOP on Sep 26. TradingView shows price 72.94 with recent -7% as market hedges. For 1-day target Sep 28, gap up likely if approval announced over weekend, as FDA accepted NDA and pivotal PROGRESS data showed no new heterotopic ossification lesions. This is a scheduled regulatory event, not yet occurred at prediction_time. Expected open-to-close also up if approval confirmed, but emotional continuation risk high if CRL. Intraday quote used from TradingView Sep 25.
   Return: -2.27%; alpha: -1.91%.
2. INCY — confidence 65%. INCY licensed zilurgisertib to MIRM, so same FDA PDUFA Sep 26 drives INCY. INCY current 123.665 intraday, down -0.62% on Sep 25, beta 0.78 lower than MIRM. Scheduled PDUFA not yet occurred. If approved, INCY receives milestone economics and validation; gap up Monday smaller than MIRM due to larger market cap diversification. Risk: CRL would cause modest down gap, and INCY already up 25% YTD. Intraday quote from Finnhub Sep 25.
   Return: 1.22%; alpha: 1.57%.
3. COST — confidence 62%. COST reported Q4 2026 on Sep 24 after close, beat EPS $6.75 vs $6.54 est, sales $93.9B +11.2%. Observed fact: report occurred, gap up Sep 25 open 887 to high 921.7, current 917.42 +2.33%. For target Sep 28 Monday, continued momentum gap up expected as analysts digest beat and tariff refund benefit $0.15. This is anticipation continuation of already occurred earnings, not scheduled. Risk: premium P/E 45, profit-taking after 1.78% 5-day run. Price is live intraday Sep 25 from Finnhub.
   Return: -0.16%; alpha: 0.20%.
4. NKE — confidence 60%. NKE earnings scheduled Sep 29 after close per Zacks, consensus $0.43, down -12.24% YoY, ESP -0.83% expecting miss. Current price 35.805, near 52-week low 35.35, down -43.8% YTD. For target Sep 28 Monday, de-risking ahead of scheduled earnings creates gap down. Event is officially scheduled, not yet occurred. Anticipation affects target session now as funds reduce exposure. Expected open-to-close could be choppy but gap direction down. Risk: oversold bounce if expectations too low, short squeeze.
   Return: 2.62%; alpha: 2.98%.
5. KNDI — confidence 55%. KNDI scheduled to report H1 2026 results Sep 28 before open, conference call 8am ET. Micro-cap EV equipment name, price 0.59 low volume, high gap propensity. Scheduled event not yet occurred, anticipation will drive gap at target open Sep 28 itself. If results better than low expectations, gap up; if weak, gap down but market expects up due to +6% recent momentum. Small-cap earnings gaps often exceed 4-5%. Risk: illiquid, $59M market cap, results may disappoint, wide spreads.
   Return: 32.26%; alpha: 32.61%.

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Perplexity

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The September 28 opening-gap opportunity set is concentrated in small- and mid-cap companies with officially scheduled earnings before or after the target session. The clearest catalyst is Kandi Technologies' scheduled premarket results and 8:00 a.m. ET conference call; Vail Resorts and Jefferies are scheduled to report after the September 28 close, so their anticipated results may influence the target session but cannot be observed before that session ends. Because exact opening prices are unavailable for most names, the gap estimates are event-based forecasts rather than observed moves. [34][42][45]

1. KNDI — confidence 82%. Kandi has the strongest identifiable gap catalyst because its unaudited six-month 2026 results are officially scheduled before the U.S. market opens on September 28, followed by an 8:00 a.m. ET conference call. The stock had already closed at $0.5808 on September 24, up 5.03%, indicating anticipatory positioning; a favorable report could produce a sharp continuation gap up, while weak results, thin liquidity and the stock's speculative profile create severe gap-down risk. The reference price is the latest regular-session close I could verify, not a September 25 live quote. [34][37][55]
   Return: 32.26%; alpha: 32.61%.
2. MTN — confidence 68%. Vail Resorts is officially scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after the September 28 close, creating a known event that can attract positioning during the target session. The stock closed at $137.82 on September 24 after declining 1.59%, so expectations appear less euphoric, and a favorable result or outlook could trigger a relief gap at the next open; however, the report occurs after the target session and therefore cannot directly set the September 28 opening price. The primary risks are weak guidance, seasonal demand concerns and event timing that postpones the actual gap beyond the scored session. The reference price is the latest regular-session close I could verify. [42][44][53]
   Return: 1.66%; alpha: 2.02%.
3. JEF — confidence 65%. Jefferies has an officially scheduled Q3 2026 earnings announcement after the September 28 close, making it a liquid financial-sector event candidate for anticipatory positioning. The stock closed at $46.24 on September 24, down 1.58%, which leaves room for a relief-style gap if investors expect strong investment-banking or market-sensitive results; nevertheless, the after-close timing means the actual earnings gap should occur after the scored session. Risks include weak trading revenue, investment-banking softness and a negative market backdrop. The reference price is the latest regular-session close I could verify. [42][54]
   Return: -0.97%; alpha: -0.61%.
4. POCI — confidence 60%. Precision Optics has an officially announced fiscal 2026 results release after the September 28 close and a 5:00 p.m. ET conference call. The catalyst is unusually material for a small-cap stock because the company intends to release results and file its 10-K on the same date, which can increase speculative positioning during the target session. The September 28 open gap is still only an expectation because the principal information arrives after the session; risks include weak results, filing-related uncertainty and very limited liquidity. I could not verify a current September 25 traded price from the available sources, so reference_price is omitted. [38]
   Return: -4.63%; alpha: -4.27%.
5. GNS — confidence 55%. Genius Group is listed for a September 28 earnings event in the available earnings calendar, making it a small-cap event-driven candidate with potentially large opening-gap sensitivity. The exact release timing is not established by the available evidence, so this is a lower-confidence selection: anticipation may support a gap up, but uncertain timing, low liquidity and binary earnings risk make a gap down equally plausible. I could not verify a current September 25 traded price from the available sources, so reference_price is omitted. [42][46]
   Return: -5.06%; alpha: -4.71%.

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Grok 4.5

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Markets show mixed tone with elevated yields and oil volatility easing on Middle East peace speculation. Tech and AI infrastructure names react strongly to deal and regulatory news while earnings misses drive downside in select names. Weekend digestion of Thursday after-hours catalysts is expected to drive sharp Monday opening gaps in both directions ahead of next week's larger earnings slate.

1. AKAM — confidence 75%. The $11.6 billion seven-year Anthropic cloud deal announced Thursday after close remains the dominant catalyst, with potential expansion to $20 billion and equity warrants. Shares already surged after-hours and into Friday session; residual positive momentum and analyst target raises support a further upside gap at Monday open as the market digests the scale of AI infrastructure commitment. Risks include profit-taking after the large move and any perception of elevated 2026 capex without near-term revenue impact. Thesis focuses on emotional continuation of the AI deal narrative over the weekend.
   Return: -3.42%; alpha: -3.06%.
2. SCHL — confidence 70%. Scholastic reported a wider-than-expected Q1 fiscal 2027 loss and revenue miss after the close on Thursday, affirming full-year guidance but highlighting education segment weakness. After-hours decline of roughly 12% sets up potential further downside gap Monday as investors reassess seasonal softness and funding volatility. Risks include stabilization if guidance is viewed as intact or any positive commentary on back-to-school trends. Thesis is continuation of negative earnings reaction over the weekend.
   Return: 4.09%; alpha: 4.45%.
3. WTTR — confidence 68%. Select Water Solutions announced a definitive $700 million acquisition of Pilot Water Solutions (plus contingent consideration) after close Thursday, adding significant Delaware Basin water midstream capacity and expected EBITDA. Positive after-hours reaction supports an upside gap Monday as the market prices the strategic scale-up and synergies. Risks include financing details, regulatory approval timing, or broader energy sector weakness. Thesis is positive M&A continuation.
   Return: 0.80%; alpha: 1.16%.
4. PRME — confidence 65%. Prime Medicine received FDA IND clearance for PM647 gene-editing therapy for Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency on Thursday, enabling clinical trials and marking progress in its liver franchise. Positive regulatory catalyst drove after-hours and premarket strength; further upside gap Monday is expected on continued biotech momentum. Risks include high volatility typical of clinical-stage names and any broader sector rotation. Thesis is positive regulatory continuation.
   Return: 0.88%; alpha: 1.23%.
5. MU — confidence 60%. Micron is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after close on Wednesday September 30; anticipation of strong AI memory results can drive a positive gap at Monday open as positioning builds ahead of the print. Recent sessions have shown relative strength in memory names. Risks include pre-earnings volatility or any negative sector commentary. Thesis is anticipatory positioning for the confirmed upcoming catalyst rather than an already-released event.
   Return: -2.04%; alpha: -1.69%.

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DeepSeek

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US equity futures are modestly higher Friday morning as falling oil prices and easing bond-market stress support risk appetite after a sharp week of Treasury yield spikes. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 0.6%, with semiconductors and AI-infrastructure names leading premarket gains. The Akamai-Anthropic cloud deal is the standout corporate event, lifting the entire AI infrastructure complex. Costco's better-than-expected Q4 results and BlackBerry's guidance raise add to a constructive but selective tape. With the market rewarding clear catalysts and punishing disappointment, I favor high-conviction, event-driven names that can generate alpha independent of the benchmark.

1. AKAM — confidence 90%. Akamai announced a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud services commitment from Anthropic, with provisions allowing expansion by up to an additional $9 billion for a potential total of ~$20 billion. The deal includes a warrant for Anthropic to buy up to 5% of Akamai at $111.33 per share. The stock surged ~21% in premarket trading to around $133.82. This is a fundamental re-rating catalyst that transforms Akamai into a hypergrowth AI infrastructure play. Risks: the stock has already gapped up significantly, so some profit-taking is possible; execution risk on the large infrastructure buildout; the deal was disclosed after Thursday's close, so the full market impact may not be fully priced.
   Return: -3.42%; alpha: -3.06%.
2. GRAL — confidence 85%. Grail received a favorable vote from an FDA advisory committee for its Galleri multi-cancer early detection test. The stock surged 55% through Friday morning after the vote, and multiple analysts raised price targets. Mizuho lifted its target to $100 from $65. The stock closed at $125.21 on Thursday, up 15.38%. The favorable committee vote is a major regulatory milestone that could open up significant adoption and insurer coverage. Risks: the efficacy vote was close, reflecting ongoing concerns about effectiveness; the stock has already run up significantly and is vulnerable to profit-taking; final FDA approval is still pending and could face delays.
   Return: 2.89%; alpha: 3.25%.
3. BB — confidence 75%. BlackBerry reported Q2 FY27 adjusted EPS of $0.07 versus the $0.04 consensus and revenue of $163.3 million, up 26% year-over-year, driven by record QNX automotive software revenue. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $616-$636 million and posted an 81% increase in adjusted EBITDA. The stock jumped 4.18% on Thursday to close at $8.73 and was trading higher in Friday's premarket around $8.91. The beat-and-raise quarter provides fundamental support for continued momentum. Risks: the stock is a small-cap with higher volatility; the broader market's narrow breadth could limit follow-through; the 121% year-to-date gain means some investors may look to lock in profits.
   Return: 10.83%; alpha: 11.19%.
4. COST — confidence 70%. Costco reported better-than-expected Q4 fiscal 2026 results, with net sales up 11.2% to $93.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $6.75 versus the $6.53 consensus. However, the stock fell 0.91% in after-hours trading to $896.48, and some analysts trimmed price targets despite maintaining bullish ratings. The market reaction suggests that the beat was largely priced in and that guidance may have disappointed. Risks: the stock trades at a premium valuation and could continue to see profit-taking; rising bond yields are pressuring high-multiple consumer staples names.
   Return: -0.16%; alpha: 0.20%.
5. INLF — confidence 65%. INLIF Limited reported unaudited first-half fiscal 2026 results with a 26.01% net revenue rise, driven by the introduction of its intelligent equipment business. The stock surged 94.58% in premarket trading to $5.74. This is a small-cap Chinese manufacturer of automated manipulator arms with high volatility. The strong revenue growth is a clear catalyst, but the stock trades near its 52-week low and has limited analyst coverage. Risks: extreme volatility, low liquidity, and the potential for a sharp reversal after such a large premarket gain; the broader market may not sustain enthusiasm for a micro-cap name.
   Return: 21.35%; alpha: 21.70%.

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How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg picks with positive alpha	Avg alpha vs SPY
Perplexity	1	40.00%	+5.01%
Muse Spark 1.1	2	70.00%	+4.39%
DeepSeek	2	70.00%	+2.89%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	1	80.00%	+1.48%
GPT-5.6 Sol	2	60.00%	+0.69%
Grok 4.5	2	50.00%	+0.29%
Claude Opus 5	1	40.00%	-0.25%
Gemini 3 Pro	1	40.00%	-0.27%
Claude Opus 5.5	1	20.00%	-1.56%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
AKAM	112.85000000	108.99000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AKAM/history/
AMD	624.90000000	607.87000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/
BB	7.94000000	8.80000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BB/history/
CCL	21.85000000	22.14000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCL/history/
CMCSA	21.92000000	21.79000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMCSA/history/
COST	924.39000000	922.92000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COST/history/
GNS	0.15800000	0.15000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GNS/history/
GRAL	128.90000000	132.63000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GRAL/history/
INCY	123.32000000	124.82000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INCY/history/
INLF	4.31000000	5.23000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INLF/history/
INTC	120.68000000	116.03000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/
JEF	47.59000000	47.13000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JEF/history/
KNDI	0.62000000	0.82000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KNDI/history/
MIRM	90.00000000	87.96000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MIRM/history/
MRK	147.65000000	148.69000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRK/history/
MSFT	505.47000000	509.22000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/
MTN	135.83000000	138.09000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MTN/history/
MU	1075.98000000	1053.98000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/
NKE	35.46000000	36.39000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/history/
POCI	4.75000000	4.53000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POCI/history/
PRME	2.85000000	2.87500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRME/history/
SCHL	32.26000000	33.58000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCHL/history/
SPY	768.35000000	765.61000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
STFS	3.51000000	3.53500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STFS/history/
WDAY	184.45000000	188.60000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDAY/history/
WKEY	6.09000000	6.05000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WKEY/history/
WTTR	20.02000000	20.18000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WTTR/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v9, SHA-256 9609258f019d4bda3be44c680a66ef71e68765a3147b5cb43fd0ed10c18fc25e. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.