This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-05 02:17 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC, when SPY closed at $765.98, down 0.6% from $770.24 when the forecast was made. It traded between $765.15 and $769.69 along the way (-0.7% to -0.1%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-05 02:17 UTC (9/4/2026, 10:17:28 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC (9/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-08 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 89.71 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 5 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Gemini 1.5 Pro found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $530.00–$540.00 | -0.9% to +0.9% | 10% | $535.00 | 1.3 | no call |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $756.00–$778.50 | -1.8% to +1.2% | 76% | $769.63 | 83.1 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $762.00–$778.00 | -1.1% to +1.0% | 40% | $770.19 | 53.3 | no call |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $767.00–$779.00 | -0.4% to +1.1% | 55% | $770.41 | 13.6 | wrong |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | $756.00–$782.00 | -1.7% to +1.6% | 44% | $769.45 | 52.8 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-05 02:17 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 6 | — | 1 | — | 5 · 4 right | 80% (4/5) |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | 6 | — | 2 | — | 4 · 3 right | 75% (3/4) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 6 | — | 2 | 2 · 0 right | 2 · 1 right | 25% (1/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 6 | — | 5 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 6 | — | 6 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-05 02:17 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data retrieval and sources: Operating at the requested target date of September 2026, I am unable to retrieve live market data, order book dynamics, or current news headlines. I am therefore relying entirely on historical extrapolation and categorizing this data access as stale.
(2) Market regime: Without access to current macroeconomic indicators, bond yields, or market breadth for Q3 2026, the baseline assumption defaults to a directionless drift. Over a 1-day window, absent a confirmable catalyst, the index typically exhibits mean-reverting behavior within its prevailing volatility bands.
(3) Price range justification: Anchoring from an estimated placeholder baseline of $535.00, the symmetric range of $530.00 to $540.00 represents approximately a +/- 1% intraday move. This aligns with the historical average daily true range for the SPY ETF during periods of normalized implied volatility.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: Without a live economic calendar, standard early-month macroeconomic data points serve as the presumed drivers. Since September 4, 2026 is the first Friday of the month, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report would traditionally be scheduled for release, acting as the primary source of volume and volatility for the session.
(5) Counter-arguments and invalidation: Any deviation from standard expected volatility-such as a significant miss in the presumed payroll data or an unforeseen geopolitical shock-would immediately drive price discovery outside the +/- 1% bounds, invalidating this neutral projection.
(6) Confidence assessment: The confidence score is strictly capped at 10% because a 1-day forecast fundamentally relies on real-time catalysts, positioning, and momentum, all of which are entirely opaque without live data access for the target window.
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SPY closed September 4 at $770.19 according to Investing.com, down 0.39% from the prior close of $773.17. The same source lists the latest after-hours price at $769.63, but the timestamp of that after-hours quote is not explicitly shown at or after 02:17 UTC, so I classify data access as partial rather than live. Source: Investing.com. ([Investing.com Canada][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: SPY remains close to its $779.37 52-week high, but Friday produced a reversal after the stronger-than-expected jobs report. The recent sequence was $761.78 on September 1, $765.16 on September 2, $773.17 on September 3, then $770.19 on September 4, showing recovery momentum followed by resistance near the upper end of the recent range. Sources: StockAnalysis and Barchart. ([StockAnalysis.com][2])
(3) Price range: For the next one-day trading window, which begins after the Labor Day market closure on Monday, I estimate $756.00-$778.50. The lower side allows a retracement toward the September 1 low of $759.48 and modest extension below it, while the upper side allows a recovery toward the $779.37 52-week high. Friday's macro-driven move raises the probability of a wider-than-usual opening range. Sources: StockAnalysis and AP. ([StockAnalysis.com][2])
(4) Catalysts: The August employment report is now the dominant catalyst: payrolls rose 162,000 versus expectations around 53,000-56,000, unemployment remained 4.1%, and CME FedWatch rate-hike odds rose to about 58%. Treasury yields increased and the S&P 500 fell 0.38% on September 4. The next major scheduled macro catalyst is August CPI on September 11, while the market is closed September 7 for Labor Day. Sources: Reuters, Barron's, AP and the BLS calendar. ([Reuters][3])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish argument is that Friday's decline was modest despite a meaningful rise in rate-hike expectations, while SPY remains close to its record zone and the broader longer-term trend is still positive. The bearish case is that higher yields and stronger labor data reduce expectations for easier monetary policy, creating a valuation headwind for large-cap growth shares. A decline in yields or unexpectedly supportive inflation data would weaken the bearish interpretation. Sources: Reuters and AP. ([Reuters][3])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 76%. The 4h and 1d signals are mildly bearish because the latest session rejected the upper range after a strong three-session rebound, while the macro backdrop became less supportive after the jobs report. I avoid a stronger bearish signal because SPY remains near its 52-week high and Friday's decline was relatively contained; the next trading session also occurs after a three-day holiday weekend, which can create unusual positioning effects.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $770.19 (down 0.39% from Thursday’s $773.17), day range $769.00-$772.87, volume ~27-34M, per CNBC, Motley Fool, FT.com and FinanceCharts. After-hours held near $769.45. Prior closes: 3 Sep $773.17, 2 Sep $765.16. 52-week range $629.28-$779.37.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Mild pullback after Thursday’s rebound, with SPY consolidating near recent highs. Price action reflects a balanced risk environment heading into the weekend without strong directional momentum.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $770.19 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $4-8 and typical ATR support a 1-day window of roughly ±1%. Lower bound near $762 allows for a modest extension of the pullback; upper bound near $778 covers a retest of the Thursday high area. Range is roughly balanced given the neutral session.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Markets closed over the weekend; Monday 7 Sep session will be influenced by any overnight global developments or residual positioning. No major high-impact U.S. data typically dominates the immediate next session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off open could push SPY below $762; stronger risk appetite could drive a break above $778. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the neutral stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed and the market is consolidating, yet single-day forecasts remain noise-dominated without near-term catalysts; moderate-to-low conviction is appropriate.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-05 02:17 UTC), SPY is in after-hours trading following the September 4 regular session. The official close was $770.19, down 0.39% on the day. After-hours trading shows $770.41, down $0.69 or -0.09%. The intraday range was $769.00-$772.87. The 52-week range is $627.66-$779.37. I have anchored my range to the after-hours quote of $770.41.
(2) Current market regime: SPY is trading just below its all-time high of $779.37, reached on August 13, 2026. The broader uptrend remains intact, with the ETF up approximately 13.38% year-to-date. However, the market is digesting a stronger-than-expected August jobs report (+162,000 jobs added vs. expectations of +53,000), which has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to 58-61%. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen accordingly, putting pressure on equities. Options flow shows $121.9M in puts vs. $66.9M in calls on September 4, a 65% put flow ratio, indicating hedging activity.
(3) Price range justification: I expect SPY to trade between $767.00 and $779.00 over the next 1-day window. The lower bound of $767.00 is informed by the conversion line support at $767.39 and the intraday low of $769.00, with $765.71 acting as a key floor below that was recently retested. The upper bound of $779.00 is informed by the all-time high of $779.37, with resistance at $775.30 (overnight high) and $776.89 (pivot high). The range is roughly symmetric around the current price because the market is in a consolidation phase following the jobs report, with bullish longer-term structure but bearish short-term catalysts (rising yields, Fed hike odds).
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The immediate 1-day window (September 5) has no major U.S. economic data releases scheduled. The market will continue to digest the August jobs report and its implications for the September 16 FOMC meeting. Geopolitical risk from US-Iran tensions remains in the background, with oil prices elevated and global risk appetite weakening. A BOJ hawk recently floated a 50-basis-point hike, threatening the cheap yen funding that has supported US equities. Citigroup analysts have stated that a preventive Fed rate hike in September "would not be the worst thing" for equities, while Societe Generale expects three rate hikes starting in September with a 60% probability.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that the S&P 500 remains in a strong uptrend, with Q2 earnings growth tracking near +32% and the index trading at 19.6 times forward earnings. The jobs report, while strong, may not be enough to force a Fed hike if inflation data (CPI due September 11) comes in soft. A break above $779.37 would set a new all-time high and could trigger momentum buying toward $785-$790. Conversely, if the Fed hawkish repricing intensifies or geopolitical risks escalate, SPY could retest the $765.71 floor and potentially $762-$760. A break below $767.00 would invalidate my neutral-to-bullish short-term view.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 55%, reflecting a market caught between a constructive longer-term structure and a cluster of near-term headwinds (rising Fed hike odds, elevated oil prices, geopolitical risk). The 1-day window is short, and with no major data releases scheduled, the market may trade sideways as it awaits the September 11 CPI report. I am more confident in the $767.00-$779.00 range than in the precise path within it, and I acknowledge that a break above $779.37 or below $767.00 are both possible outcomes depending on overnight developments in yields, oil, and geopolitics.
claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5)
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: SPY closed Friday September 4 at $770.19, down 0.39%, in a narrow $769.00-$772.87 range on 34.1M shares. Extended-hours trading then ran to its 8:00pm EDT finish at $769.45 (-0.10%), and that final print - timestamped 00:00 UTC, about two hours and seventeen minutes before this baseline - is the last transaction that exists anywhere for SPY, so it is my anchor (stockanalysis.com). The 52-week range is $629.28-$779.37, leaving the ETF roughly 1.3% under its 52-week high.
(2) Current market regime: a tightening-risk tape that keeps refusing to break. August payrolls printed 162,000 against consensus near 55,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1% (UPI, CNBC), front-end Treasury yields set 52-week highs intraday (2Y 4.374%, 5Y 4.545% per TheStreet), and the S&P still finished essentially flat, closing down 0.08% at the index level while the Nasdaq gained 0.12% (Yahoo Finance). September rate-hike pricing is genuinely contested - TheStreet put it near 50% after Governor Waller's dovish comments, 247wallst.com reported it rising to 60.2% from 49.4% on the payrolls beat - and that disagreement between sources is itself the regime. Beneath the index, money rotated hard into AI infrastructure on Friday (SOXX +3%, Intel +4%) while single-name disappointments were punished brutally (Lululemon -18%, Guidewire -22.2%), so the flat index conceals unusually violent dispersion.
(3) Price range justification: the structural fact dominating this window is that nothing can trade inside it. The window runs from Friday 10:17pm ET to Saturday 10:17pm ET - cash markets are shut, extended hours ended at 8:00pm ET, and CME equity futures do not reopen until Sunday 6:00pm ET, which is after this window closes. If the reading is taken at window close, SPY is $769.45 and cannot be anything else. The band I give, $756.00 to $782.00, is therefore sized for the alternative reading - the next print that actually exists, Tuesday September 8's session, since Monday September 7 is a market holiday (financecalendar.com). That is roughly 1.75% below and 1.63% above, built from SPY's recent sub-1% daily ranges plus a three-day weekend gap allowance, and it is close to symmetric on purpose: I hold no directional view over a period in which no shares change hands.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: none. There are no scheduled releases on a Saturday and no market to price them into. The relevant calendar begins after this window expires: Monday September 7 is Labor Day with markets closed and no reports, Tuesday brings NFIB Small Business Optimism at 6:00am ET and Consumer Credit at 3:00pm ET, Thursday September 10 carries PPI and jobless claims at 8:30am ET, and Friday September 11 delivers August CPI at 8:30am ET with University of Michigan sentiment at 10:00am ET (Kiplinger economic calendar). CPI is the week's decisive event because it is the last major inflation input before the September 16 FOMC, which sits outside even the 7d horizon.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: on the near horizons there is no counter-argument to make - a closed market is not a forecast I can be wrong about, only one that could be mis-anchored if my $769.45 print were incorrect, which is the actual risk I am carrying here. On the 7d call, the bear case has been repeatedly wrong at this juncture: Friday delivered a large hawkish surprise and the index absorbed it fully, which is evidence of a persistent bid rather than fragility. That call is invalidated if CPI prints at or below consensus and hike odds retreat, or if SPY takes out $779.37 on volume beforehand. My 7d and 30d lean rests on position rather than momentum - an index 1.3% below its high with an unresolved hike debate has more distance to fall on a hawkish surprise than to gain on a benign one - and that is an asymmetry argument, not a claim that anything is deteriorating.
(6) Confidence justification: 44%, and the number is a blend of two very different things. The 1h, 4h and 1d NEUTRAL signals are near-certain by construction rather than by judgment: markets are closed for the entire window and I would put very high confidence on the price being unchanged at its close. The 7d and 30d MILD BEARISH readings are much weaker - a modest skew from an inflation binary and the September 16 meeting, made against a tape that has repeatedly declined to sell off on hawkish news. Blending mechanical certainty on the short end with a thin directional lean on the long end lands here rather than higher.
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