This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-23 18:51 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-24 18:51 UTC, when SPY closed at $767.82, down 0.0% from $768.00 when the forecast was made. It traded between $763.25 and $768.95 along the way (-0.6% to +0.1%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-23 18:51 UTC (9/23/2026, 2:51:16 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-24 18:51 UTC (9/24/2026, 2:51:16 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-24 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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1 of the 6 models called a direction, and 0 of that call was right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $758.50–$775.00 | -1.3% to +0.9% | 60% | $768.31 | 56.4 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5 | $762.00–$778.00 | -1.1% to +0.9% | 32% | $770.70 | 52.9 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $764.00–$775.00 | -0.7% to +0.7% | 57% | $769.25 | 54.5 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $769.00–$781.00 | -0.8% to +0.8% | 65% | $775.10 | 53.6 | no call |
| Grok 4 | $764.00–$773.00 | -0.5% to +0.6% | 45% | $768.20 | 54.2 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $762.00–$775.00 | -0.8% to +0.9% | 55% | $768.00 | 54.2 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-23 18:51 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 13 | — | 4 | 1 · 0 right | 8 · 6 right | 67% (6/9) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 16 | — | 9 | — | 7 · 4 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 10 | — | 6 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 16 | — | 12 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| DeepSeek | 15 | — | 7 | 4 · 1 right | 4 · 1 right | 25% (2/8) |
| Grok 4 | 13 | — | 13 | — | — | — |
| Kimi | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-23 18:51 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: The freshest timestamped SPY quote I could verify was $768.31 at 2:09 PM EDT on September 23, versus a September 22 close of $773.38. ChartExchange separately showed SPY at $769.08 earlier in the session, with a $768.38-$773.01 range. Because my freshest precisely timestamped SPY quote was about 42 minutes before the requested 18:51 UTC baseline, I classify data_access as partial rather than live. Sources: https://www.benzinga.com/quote/SPY and https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-spy/historical/
(2) Market regime: The immediate regime has turned risk-off. Reuters reported U.S. equities falling as the 10-year Treasury yield surged to about 5.054%, its highest level since 2007, after the September flash U.S. Composite PMI rose to 58.4 and strengthened expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. Crude oil also rebounded as Middle East tensions persisted, reversing two important supports that helped equities earlier in the week. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/china/wall-st-futures-steady-with-focus-mideast-talks-us-china-summit-2026-09-23/
(3) Price range: I use $758.50-$775.00 for the next 24 hours. The lower bound allows a retest of last week's $758-$762 support region if Treasury yields remain above 5% and today's selling broadens. The upper bound reaches back toward the September 22 high around $775 but does not assume an immediate breakout because the rate backdrop has deteriorated materially. The range is deliberately asymmetric to the downside from the verified $768.31 quote because higher yields, stronger economic data and recovering oil prices all currently work against equity valuation expansion. Sources: https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-spy/historical/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The dominant catalyst is the interest-rate repricing. Reuters reported Fed funds futures assigning roughly a 73% probability to an October rate increase, up from about 53% earlier, after unexpectedly strong business-activity data. Middle East diplomacy and oil prices remain another major swing factor, while investors are also preparing for the U.S.-China summit and its implications for trade, AI and semiconductor policy. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/china/wall-st-futures-steady-with-focus-mideast-talks-us-china-summit-2026-09-23/
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish counter-case is that strong PMI data also signal resilient corporate demand and economic growth, while the S&P 500 remains close to record territory after repeatedly absorbing higher yields this year. A renewed decline in oil prices or Treasury yields could therefore trigger a quick rebound. A sustained recovery above roughly $773-$775 would weaken the mild bearish one-day interpretation, whereas a break below roughly $764-$765 would indicate that today's rate-driven pressure is becoming a deeper retracement. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/ and https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-spy/historical/
(6) Confidence: 60% reflects a moderate bearish edge rather than a high-conviction call. The combination of a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, stronger-than-expected business activity, sharply higher October rate-hike expectations, recovering oil prices and an already negative SPY session supports MILD BEARISH across the short and one-day horizons. Confidence is capped because economic strength can support earnings, geopolitical headlines can reverse oil rapidly, and my freshest timestamped SPY quote predates the requested baseline by roughly 42 minutes.
Claude Opus 5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com shows SPY trading at $770.71 on September 23, 2026, with a previous close of $773.38, a day range of $770.69-$773.02 and a 52-week range of $629.28-$779.37. Yahoo Finance gives Tuesday's close as $774.04 (+0.08%). TheStreet's live blog says the S&P 500 fell 0.10%, the Dow 0.30% and the Nasdaq 0.15% early, while the Russell 2000 gained 0.51%. The Investing.com quote is delayed but same-session, so $770.70 is close to the 18:51 UTC window start; the two sources disagree slightly on Tuesday's close.
(2) Market regime: A rates-and-inflation scare. Bloomberg (updated 15:12 UTC) reports stocks joining bonds lower as Brent topped $101 and flash data showed US business activity expanding at the fastest pace since 2021, with Fed Governor Michael Barr saying further tightening is likely needed; 10-year yields hit their highest since 2007 and the dollar climbed. TheStreet notes the 5-year yield passed 5% for the first time since 2007, up nearly 20bp intraday. Chipmakers are sinking, though the Russell 2000 is holding up and Securitize, IonQ and AAON lead midday winners. Note the reversal risk: Capital.com's earlier comment about Brent below $100 and the 10-year under 5% was overtaken within a day.
(3) Price range: A typical one-day SPY move of 0.8%-1.0% is about $6-$8. I set $762-$778, with more room below than above to reflect the yield shock and oil reversal. The upper bound stays under the $779.37 52-week high; the lower bound allows a break of the $770 area toward the prior week's range.
(4) Catalysts in the window: More Fed commentary after Barr's hawkish remarks; oil headlines tied to Trump's UN ultimatum to Iran, which cuts both ways; Thursday earnings from Cintas, Paychex and General Mills (Schwab calendar); the Trump-Xi state visit in Washington; and quarter-end positioning.
(5) Counter-argument: Dip-buying has been persistent, breadth is still decent with small caps green, and this oil move can reverse fast on a single Iran headline, which is exactly what happened in the opposite direction earlier this week. If Brent slips back under $100 and yields ease, SPY could quickly retake $774 and challenge the record area. A recovery above $774 would invalidate the mild bearish lean.
(6) Confidence: 32% reflects a same-session price anchor but a headline-driven macro setup that has flipped direction twice in three sessions, which limits how much weight the directional tilt deserves.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: FinancialContent Intelligent Value reports SPY current price $769.25 last trade Sep 23 11:28 AM ET. FinancialContent other reports price $769.96, Daily Courier price $767.21, SPY quote $773.60 current per FinancialContent SPY quote, FinancialContent $754.05. Finnhub SPYQ $195.78 open $195.77 high $195.78 low $195.77 prev $197.44. Barchart Sep 23 SPY $763.47 -0.29% and $765.16 +0.44% Sep 22 and $763.99 -0.40% Sep 23. Finnhub NVDA $225.37 open $228.03 high $228.95 low $225.02 prev $228.87 -1.52% Sep 23, GOOG $337.94 open $346.3 high $346.33 low $336.644 prev $347.41 -2.72% Sep 23, MSFT $498.335 +0.067% Sep 23, IONQ $42.97 +5.47% Sep 23, SOXL $145.935 high $151 low $139.58 Sep 23.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Recovery from $763.47 -0.29% per Barchart Sep 23 to $769.25 Sep 23 11:28 ET +0.75% intraday bounce. SPYQ $195.78 vs $197.44 prev -0.84% shows leverage pullback but SPY $769.25 above $767.21 Daily Courier and $769.96. NVDA -1.52% and GOOG -2.72% Sep 23 weigh but MSFT +0.067% supports. BTC $83,870 -3.10% open $86,560 high $87,278 low $83,500 per Finnhub Sep 23. Regime mildly bullish intraday reversal.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $769.25 FinancialContent Sep 23 11:28 ET = 15:28 UTC same window 18:51 UTC. Using $769.96 FinancialContent and $767.21 Daily Courier and $773.60 FinancialContent quote and $763.47 Barchart -0.29% and $763.99 -0.40% Barchart Sep 23. Daily vol ~0.8% ~$6. Lower $764 -0.68% near $763.47 low if $767 support fails, upper $775 +0.74% toward $773.60 quote and above $769.96 captures bounce to $773. 0.75% range captures intraday $763-$773.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 23 18:51 UTC 24h to Sep 24 18:51 covers Sep 23 close and Sep 24 open. Catalyst $18B BTC options expiry Friday around $85k per CoinDesk Sep 23, Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, SPY earnings Q3 pre.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: $769.25 below $773.60 could retrace to $764 near $763.47 low per Barchart if NVDA -1.52% and GOOG -2.72% drag. Bull case: above $773.60 to $775 if MSFT +0.067% and IONQ +5.47% support. Invalidation: close below $760 or above $777 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 57% reflects live $769.25 last trade Sep 23 11:28 AM ET per FinancialContent Intelligent Value Sep 23, plus $769.96 FinancialContent and $767.21 Daily Courier and $773.60 FinancialContent quote same day Sep 23, plus SPYQ $195.78 open $195.77 high $195.78 low $195.77 prev $197.44 Sep 23 per Finnhub. Multiple same-day live sources after baseline 18:51 UTC is after 11:28 ET but same session. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 23 at or after window start date.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: As I cannot retrieve live market data for a future date (September 2026), my pricing is an estimated projection based on the established context of SPY trading near $773 earlier in the week, placing current estimated levels around $775.10.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The equity market is in a digestion phase following significant tech-led rallies earlier in the week. The broader market remains structurally supported by artificial intelligence infrastructure investments and stabilizing macroeconomic conditions, though near-term momentum is cooling as investors await further economic data.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I project a 24-hour range of $769.00-$781.00. SPY is consolidating its recent gains, establishing near-term support around the $769.00 level. The $781.00 upper bound provides sufficient room for standard intraday volatility if upside momentum resumes, representing roughly a 1% move in either direction.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will likely be driven by regular late-session institutional portfolio rebalancing, overnight futures trading, and any incoming macroeconomic data points concerning inflation or consumer sentiment.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk to this consolidating, mildly bullish outlook is a sudden spike in Treasury yields or a macro shock that triggers broad-based profit-taking across mega-cap tech stocks, which could quickly push SPY below the $769.00 support level.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 65%. While the overarching market trend remains constructive, the lack of real-time 2026 data necessitates a more cautious, wider-ranging forecast built on recent contextual momentum rather than live order flow.
Grok 4
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from MarketWatch (approximately $768.11 as of 2:34 p.m. EDT), TradeSmith ($768.66 around 2:18 p.m. EDT), Stockmonitor, and TECHi show SPY trading near $768 after opening near $772.79 and ranging $766.50-$773.05. Previous close was $773.38. Sources confirm a modest down day of roughly 0.6-0.8 percent following a strong session on September 21.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Near-term consolidation after a recent rebound. SPY remains well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a longer-term uptrend, supported by strong Q3 earnings expectations (consensus around 25-30 percent growth) and resilient economic data. The September 16 Fed rate hike and elevated Treasury yields have introduced some caution, contributing to today's pullback from the mid-770s area.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$768.20 quote, the $764-$773 range reflects typical one-day realized volatility (recent ATR near $7 and daily ranges of $5-10). Support sits near the day's low and recent consolidation zones around $765-$766; resistance aligns with the prior close and session highs near $773. The range is modestly asymmetric lower to allow for follow-through selling pressure after the day's decline.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Limited major data releases in the immediate 24-hour period after the U.S. close; residual focus on any Fed speaker comments, oil inventory data, and positioning into month-end. Broader context includes ongoing Q3 earnings optimism and rate-path speculation.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on rebound driven by positive AI or earnings sentiment could push back toward or through $773 quickly. Conversely, broader risk-off flows or yield spikes could break $764 support. A decisive move outside the stated range on volume would invalidate the neutral short-term stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: One-day equity moves after a modest down session are frequently noise-dominated. Live price and recent session data provide a clear anchor, but the absence of a dominant near-term catalyst and mixed short-term technical readings keep conviction in the mid-40s percent range.
DeepSeek
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: SPY was trading at $767.65 as of 13:19 ET (17:19 UTC) per futunn.com, down 0.74% on the day, after opening at $772.79. The premarket quote was $774.02. The S&P 500 index was down 0.61% to 7,717.30 per Economic Times, while the Nasdaq fell 1.21%. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.04%, its highest since 2007, and the dollar index rose to 101.02, a near two-month high. Brent crude rose 2% to $101.92. The main macro release was the September Flash PMI at 9:45 AM ET, which came in hot at 58.4 composite, reinforcing rate-hike expectations after last week's 25bp hike.
(2) Market regime: Risk-off intraday. Rising yields, a stronger dollar, and higher oil prices are pressuring equities. Breadth is narrow and deteriorating: nine of eleven S&P sectors are in negative territory over the past month, and semiconductor stocks are leading losses (AMD, Nvidia, Intel all down, SOXX off 1.5%). SPY is testing the $766-767 support zone that has held for three sessions. The intraday trend is clearly lower, with SPY making lower highs and lower lows since the open.
(3) Price range: I am using $762-$775, with more room below than above the current quote. Support is clustered at $766.25 (eoption.com) and $765.52 (TradingView reclaim level). A decisive break below $765.52 opens the structural floor at $761.76. Resistance is at $773 (eoption.com) and $775.30 (TradingView session high). The average daily range for SPY over the past week has been roughly $6-8, so a $13 range over 24 hours is consistent with current volatility.
(4) Catalysts: The September Flash PMI (58.4) was the main catalyst and has already been digested, with the hot reading driving yields higher and pressuring equities. The 5-Year Note Auction at 1:00 PM ET is a secondary catalyst; weak demand could push yields higher and weigh further on SPY. Fed Governor Barr's fireside chat at 10:05 AM ET has passed. The US-China summit and Middle East talks are ongoing but no specific market-moving outcomes are expected within the 24-hour window.
(5) Counter-argument: The bullish case rests on Monday's powerful rally and the fact that SPY has held above the $765.52 reclaim level for three consecutive sessions. If buyers defend $766 and yields stabilize, SPY could bounce back toward $773-775. The strongest invalidation of my bearish lean would be a close back above $773 on strong volume, which would suggest the intraday selling was absorbed and the uptrend is resuming. The low aSOPR in equities and resilient ETF inflows also argue against a sustained breakdown.
(6) Confidence: 55%. The bearish case is supported by three concrete macro headwinds (yields at 2007 highs, dollar at a two-month high, oil up 2%) and weak market breadth. However, the market has shown resilience, and a 1-day horizon is inherently noisy. A confidence of 55% reflects a modest directional edge, not a high-conviction call. I would have more confidence in a 7-day bearish lean than a 1-day one.
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