This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-29 18:13 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-30 18:13 UTC, when SPY closed at $767.47, up 0.6% from $763.11 when the forecast was made. It traded between $763.08 and $769.41 along the way (-0.0% to +0.8%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-29 18:13 UTC (9/29/2026, 2:13:01 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-30 18:13 UTC (9/30/2026, 2:13:01 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-30 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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1 of the 6 models called a direction, and 1 of that call was right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $756.00–$770.00 | -0.9% to +0.9% | 57% | $763.23 | 54.2 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $758.00–$767.00 | -0.7% to +0.5% | 70% | $763.11 | 54.7 | no call |
| Perplexity | $760.00–$767.50 | -0.4% to +0.6% | 53% | $762.69 | 81.3 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $758.00–$769.00 | -0.7% to +0.8% | 45% | $763.00 | 53.9 | no call |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | $758.50–$773.50 | -1.0% to +1.0% | 38% | $766.00 | 53.3 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $758.00–$772.00 | -0.9% to +0.9% | 60% | $764.95 | 54.4 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-29 18:13 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | 3 | — | 2 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Kimi | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 12 | — | 8 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 12 | — | 9 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| DeepSeek | 11 | — | 7 | 1 · 1 right | 3 · 0 right | 25% (1/4) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 11 | — | 7 | — | 4 · 1 right | 25% (1/4) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 7 | — | 5 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 9 | — | 9 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-29 18:13 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: FinanceCharts Sep 29 reports SPY $763.23 as of 09/29/2026, 52-week high $779.37 on 08/13/2026. Wallstrank reports $763.23 at close updated Sep 29 11:57 AM EDT down -2.38 -0.31%. AlphaTraderNews pre-market Sep 29 shows SPY 765.61 Bearish -0.74%. Stockmonitor real-time Sep 29 11:55 EDT open $766.82 range $762.57-$766.82. Gov.capital Sep 29 shows $765.61.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Broad market soft with major index ETFs uniformly bearish per AlphaTraderNews, QQQ leading declines -1.07%. SPY down from ATH ~2% and futures under pressure from rising yields and oil. Underlying uptrend intact but near-term risk-off.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Daily range $762.57-$766.82 ~$4.2 ~0.5% low volatility. Lower bound $756 near 1% below current support, upper bound $770 near below ATH $779 resistance. Slight bearish skew with more room below reflecting pre-market bearish -0.74% signal.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Quarterly close Sep 30 approaching may drive positioning. No SPY-specific catalyst, but jobs data and Treasury yield moves drive ETF flows. Oil above $100 remains headwind per Sep 28 coverage.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bullish case is AI capex and earnings resilience supporting $763 support and bounce toward $770. Invalidation would be close above $770 with falling yields and tech recovery led by NVDA buyback.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 57% based on live close $763.23 confirmed by multiple sources near window start 18:13 UTC. Confidence modest because 1-day SPY move is low signal-to-noise and macro-driven, but bearish intraday trend supports mild bearish view.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: As of 18:13 UTC on September 29, 2026, I sourced SPY trading at $763.11 via live financial quotes from Google Finance and Robinhood. I also reviewed real-time market commentary from TheStreet, BNN Bloomberg, and Morningstar, which highlighted that the broader S&P 500 is under pressure today, down about 0.3% amid rising Treasury yields and easing oil prices.
(2) The current market regime as I read it: The market is currently in a short-term, risk-off correction phase driven by macroeconomic headwinds. Elevated Treasury yields, stubborn inflation concerns, and a highly "two-tiered" market-where a few mega-cap tech stocks obscure broader weakness in the equal-weighted index-are weighing heavily on equities and driving intraday selling pressure.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I am anchoring my 1-day forecast to the current price of $763.11, projecting a range of $758.00-$767.00. SPY has already retreated from an intraday high of $766.95. The lower bound of $758.00 accounts for continued downward momentum and algorithmic selling if Treasury yields spike further, while the upper bound caps a potential relief rally near the morning's resistance levels.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Over the next 24 hours, price action will primarily be dictated by ongoing bond market volatility, fluctuations in crude oil prices tied to Middle East geopolitical developments, and positioning shifts ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. monthly employment report scheduled for later in the week.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The strongest counter-argument is that the underlying strength of mega-cap technology constituents could suddenly outpace broader sector weakness. A sudden, sharp decline in Treasury yields or an unexpected positive headline regarding AI infrastructure spending could quickly spark a short-covering rally, pushing SPY above the $767 upper bound.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 70%. While the inverse correlation between rising Treasury yields and equity valuations provides a clear bearish headwind for the session, 1-day ETF forecasting is inherently vulnerable to sudden intraday reversals driven by institutional hedging flows or macroeconomic news.
Perplexity
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime and price action: SPY is trading near $762.69 as of September 29, 2026, down 0.40% from the prior session's close of $765.61, according to Yahoo Finance. The S&P 500 index fell 0.76% to 7,684.41 on September 28, with almost 400 companies in the index declining, as rising crude oil prices and surging Treasury yields renewed inflation and borrowing cost concerns. [266][269][273][280]
(2) Technical structure and levels: Price is currently testing support in the $762-$763 zone, with the day's low at $762.37 and a 52-week range spanning $629.28 to $779.37. Immediate resistance is at $765.61 (prior close) and $766.70 (September 29 open), while support sits at $760.51 (September 9 close) and $760.94 (September 9 low). The ETF is consolidating after reaching a 52-week high of $779.37, with the pullback reflecting macro headwinds from elevated yields and oil prices. [273][275][279]
(3) Price range justification: The $760.00-$767.50 24-hour range reflects SPY's recent consolidation band and typical intraday volatility. The lower bound sits below the $762.37 intraday low, allowing for a wick through support without a full breakdown toward $760.51. The upper bound sits above the $766.70 open and $765.61 prior close, acknowledging that a decisive breakout above this level in a single day is less probable without a fresh catalyst given the macro headwinds. [273][275][279]
(4) Catalysts and flow dynamics: The primary pressure on price comes from elevated Treasury yields (30-year yields hit the highest level since 2002) and crude oil prices near $104 per barrel for Brent, which rekindled inflation concerns and drove selling in equities. The U.S. rejection of Iran's terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz added geopolitical risk premium. On the positive side, eight out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended in positive territory on September 29, with the Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) rising 1%, indicating some breadth despite the index decline. [266][272][277][280]
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bullish case is that the pullback is a normal consolidation after the S&P 500 posted new highs, and the decline in oil prices and easing Treasury yields on September 29 could support a rebound. A daily close above $766.70 would invalidate the mild bearish skew and open a path toward $769.54 (September 28 high) and potentially the 52-week high at $779.37. Additionally, the S&P 500 futures were fractionally lower on September 29, suggesting the selling pressure may be moderating. [271][273][274]
(6) Confidence assessment: Confidence is set at 53% because the 1-day window is dominated by noise and SPY is in a consolidation phase between well-defined levels. The mild bearish skew reflects the failure to hold above $765, the macro headwinds from elevated yields and oil prices, and the back-to-back losses in the S&P 500. However, the easing in yields and oil prices on September 29, the positive sector breadth, and the proximity to support at $760-$762 prevent a more bearish call. This is a low-conviction, range-bound forecast with a slight downward bias. [266][272][274]
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes on 29 Sep 2026 place SPY near $763. Sources including TECHi ($763.20), TradeSmith ($763.57), FT.com ($763.92), Investing.com ($763.39), and Barchart ($763.03) align around that level. The prior close on 28 Sep was $765.61 after a session high of $769.54 and low of $763.72. Intraday range today has been roughly $762.35-$766.98. 52-week range is approximately $629-$779.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: SPY is in a mild pullback phase after testing higher levels near $771-$775 earlier in the week. Price remains well supported above the mid-$750s and continues to trade in the upper portion of its multi-month range, consistent with a constructive medium-term trend for the broad U.S. equity market.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to ~$763, the one-day range of $758-$769 reflects recent daily swings of $5-$10 and nearby technical levels (support near the recent lows around $762-$763 and resistance toward the 28 Sep high of $769-$770). The bounds allow for either a modest continuation of the soft tone or a recovery toward the prior session highs.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major scheduled U.S. economic releases or index-specific events are expected to drive SPY decisively over the next 24 hours. Price action is likely to remain sensitive to broader risk sentiment and residual institutional flows rather than a discrete catalyst.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sudden risk-on rebound in large-cap equities could push SPY back through $766 toward $769-$771, invalidating the mild soft bias. Conversely, a break below $762 on elevated volume would open a clearer path toward the $755-$758 zone and expand the downside of the range.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is moderate at 45% because one-day ETF moves are frequently noise-dominated, recent sessions have been two-sided with limited directional conviction, and no high-impact catalyst is present to drive a strong short-term bias.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: I could not retrieve a quote stamped at the 18:13 UTC baseline, so current_price is my best estimate anchored to the Monday close and Tuesday premarket, not a live intraday quote. SPY closed Monday Sep 28 at $765.61, down 0.74% (Benzinga and stockanalysis.com), and was quoted at $766.80 in premarket at 8:36 AM ET (stockanalysis.com). Sources: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/09/62040617/stock-market-will-sp-500-open-up-or-down-today-46 and https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/history/. The Investing.com page showing $771.35 with a Sep 28 label matches the prior Friday close (765.61 plus 5.74), so I treated it as stale for Sep 28. Intraday drift since the open is unknown to me.
(2) Regime: SPY is in a high-level uptrend that is pulling back. Its 52-week high is $779.37 and its 52-week low is $629.28 (Investing.com and MacroTrends), so the ETF sits about 1.7% below the high. The backdrop is tighter policy: stockanalysis.com reports the Fed voted 12-0 on Sep 16 to raise the funds rate 25 bp to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, with the median year-end projection at 4.1%. Benzinga describes a September selloff, escalating Middle East headlines, and red index futures ahead of Tuesday's open, with Polymarket implying about a 40% chance of a higher S&P 500 open.
(3) Range: I anchor to about $766.00 and assume roughly 0.9% one-day volatility, which is about $7 for one sigma. That gives $758.50 to $773.50, close to symmetric on purpose because I have no reliable one-day directional edge. Reference points are the $765.61 Monday close, the Monday intraday low of about $766 to $772 area noted by Investing.com for Friday's range, and the $771.35 Friday close above.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: Benzinga lists July S&P Case-Shiller at 9:00 AM ET, then the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and August JOLTS at 10:00 AM ET, and speeches by Fed presidents Austan Goolsbee and John Williams in the afternoon. Micron reports after the close on Wed Sep 30. Middle East headlines and Treasury yields are the main unscheduled risks.
(5) Counter-argument: Rate-hike repricing and geopolitical stress could extend the pullback toward the low $750s, and Fed speakers could reinforce a hawkish path. On the other side, a soft JOLTS or consumer-confidence print or easing Middle East tension could trigger a dip-buying bounce toward $771 to $779. A close above $779.37 would undercut the neutral read. A decisive break below about $755 would point to a deeper correction.
(6) Confidence: 38%. One-day index direction is close to noise, and my price anchor comes from premarket data rather than a print at the baseline time. The 30-day mild bullish tilt rests on the uptrend and the small distance to the 52-week high, but a new hiking cycle and geopolitical risk limit my conviction.
DeepSeek
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: SPY is trading at $764.95 as of 10:03 AM ET on September 29, 2026, down 0.09% from the prior close of $765.61 (Futunn). The ETF opened at $766.70 and has traded in a $764.60-$766.95 range. Premarket action was choppy, with SPY quoted at $765.32, down 0.038%, as investors weighed a tech rebound against geopolitical tensions (Benzinga). The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 5.24%, and the 2-year at 4.94% (Benzinga). Markets are pricing a 72.5% probability of a Fed rate hike in October (CME FedWatch via Benzinga). The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,683.69, down 0.77%, with the Dow falling 0.67% and the Nasdaq dropping 0.92% (Benzinga).
(2) Market regime: SPY is in a negative-gamma regime, trading below the $767 gamma flip point (KuCoin). Dealers are short gamma in this zone, which amplifies moves in both directions. The ETF is hovering just above the critical $764.76 support level that has held for five consecutive sessions (TradingView). Retail sentiment remains "extremely bullish" (Stocktwits), creating contrarian risk. The VIX rose 8.07% to 16.07 on Monday, signaling elevated uncertainty.
(3) Price range justification: I am using a $758-$772 range. The lower bound reflects the major weekly support at $750-$754, with the first support at $761 (TheoTrade). A break below $764.76 would likely accelerate toward $758. The upper bound is capped by the $770-$772 resistance zone, which includes the gamma flip point and the 770.09 shelf lost on Monday (TradingView). SPY's average daily range is roughly $8-$10, so a $14 range is consistent with current volatility. The range is skewed to the downside given the negative gamma positioning and macro headwinds.
(4) Catalysts: The primary catalyst is the JOLTS job openings and Consumer Confidence data at 10:00 AM ET, followed by Fed speakers Goolsbee (1:00 PM ET) and Williams (2:00 PM ET). Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated, with Trump dismissing sanctions relief as a "HOAX" (Benzinga). No SPY-specific events are scheduled, but the macro data and Fed commentary could trigger sharp intraday moves.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bull case is that the $764.76 support has held repeatedly, and the premarket tech rebound (QQQ up 0.4%) could spill over into the broader market. If SPY reclaims $767 and closes above it, the negative gamma pressure would ease, opening the path to $770-$772. A close above $772 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Conversely, a breakdown below $761 would confirm the bearish continuation and open the door to $750-$754.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 60% because the technical setup is clear - SPY is pinned below the gamma flip with negative dealer positioning - but the 1-day horizon is noisy and the support level has proven resilient. The macro data and Fed speakers introduce event risk that could trigger a breakout in either direction. The confidence reflects a modest bearish tilt rather than strong conviction.
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