This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-24 15:07 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-25 15:07 UTC, when SPY closed at $769.70, up 0.7% from $764.22 when the forecast was made. It traded between $763.25 and $770.31 along the way (-0.1% to +0.8%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-24 15:07 UTC (9/24/2026, 11:07:46 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-25 15:07 UTC (9/25/2026, 11:07:46 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-25 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 7 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $755.00–$770.00 | -1.1% to +0.9% | 57% | $763.20 | 54.1 | no call |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $757.00–$775.00 | -1.3% to +1.0% | 55% | $767.00 | 31.1 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $762.00–$778.00 | -1.0% to +1.0% | 52% | $769.96 | 53.8 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $754.50–$767.50 | -1.3% to +0.4% | 75% | $764.42 | 14.2 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $758.00–$770.00 | -0.8% to +0.7% | 42% | $764.37 | 53.7 | no call |
| Kimi | $758.00–$772.00 | -0.8% to +1.0% | 55% | $764.12 | 80.4 | right |
| DeepSeek V3 | $757.00–$771.00 | -1.1% to +0.7% | 62% | $765.30 | 31.7 | wrong |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-24 15:07 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 14 | — | 5 | 1 · 0 right | 8 · 6 right | 67% (6/9) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 17 | — | 9 | — | 8 · 4 right | 50% (4/8) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 11 | — | 7 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 17 | — | 12 | 1 · 0 right | 4 · 2 right | 40% (2/5) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 16 | — | 7 | 4 · 1 right | 5 · 1 right | 22% (2/9) |
| Grok 4.5 | 14 | — | 14 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-24 15:07 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: I could not retrieve a verified SPY trade exactly at 2026-09-24T15:07:00Z, so $763.20 is my best contemporaneous estimate rather than a claimed tick-level quote. SPY closed September 23 at $767.81 according to Yahoo Finance and Investing.com, while Benzinga showed premarket prices around $763-$764 before Thursday's open. Reports after the opening bell described the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trading lower as oil and Treasury yields rose. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}
(2) Current market regime: The short-term regime is risk-off and rate-sensitive. Wednesday already produced a 0.72% SPY decline, and Thursday's pressure is occurring against higher oil prices, elevated long-duration Treasury yields and renewed concern that the Federal Reserve may continue tightening. Reuters reported that Fed officials remain focused on inflation after the September rate increase, while technology shares have been especially sensitive to rising yields. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}
(3) Price range: I use $755-$770 for the next one-day window. The lower side has more room because recent price action has shifted from the September 21-22 rebound near $773-$775 into renewed selling, while $760 and the September 18 area around $758-$762 form the nearest visible support zone. A move back toward $768-$770 is plausible if yields or oil retreat, but reclaiming the recent $773-$775 area within one session would require a meaningful reversal in the current macro pressure. Historical SPY data from Investing.com and Yahoo Finance show recent lows and closes clustered around these levels. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
(4) Catalysts: Inside the forecast window, Thursday's market is digesting weekly jobless claims, new-home-sales data, numerous Federal Reserve speakers, elevated oil prices and the Trump-Xi meeting. Friday brings durable-goods orders and revised University of Michigan consumer-sentiment data, which can affect Treasury yields and equity valuation expectations. Kiplinger lists jobless claims and new-home sales for September 24 and durable goods plus revised consumer sentiment for September 25. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bullish counter-case is that the selloff is largely a rates-and-oil shock occurring close to recent record highs rather than a deterioration in corporate fundamentals. Reuters noted that strong earnings and previous episodes of easing yields have supported equities, and the S&P 500 was still near record territory earlier this week. A sustained SPY recovery above roughly $768-$770 accompanied by falling Treasury yields and softer oil would invalidate the mild-bearish one-day interpretation. :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}
(6) Confidence: 57% reflects a modest directional edge rather than a strong conviction call. Macro conditions currently favor additional downside volatility, but SPY is already several dollars below Wednesday's close, making intraday mean reversion plausible. Confidence is also capped because I could not independently verify an exact $763.20 trade at the requested 15:07 UTC baseline, so the starting price is an informed estimate based on contemporaneous market reports and the latest retrievable SPY quotations.
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: I could not get a tick-level SPY quote stamped 15:07 UTC, so current_price is derived. Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500) shows SPY at about 770.71 on Sep 23, with a 52-week range of 629.28-779.37. StreetStats (https://streetstats.finance/markets/breadth-momentum/SP500) shows the S&P 500 closed Sep 23 at 7708.55 and traded at 7685.41 (-0.30%) at 10:01 ET on Sep 24. TheStreet's Sep 24 live blog (https://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-sept-24-2026) reports the S&P 500 down about 0.5% in early trading, with the Russell 2000 down about 1.8%. Using SPY's roughly 0.1x ratio to the index and an intraday move of about -0.45%, SPY is near $767. That figure is an estimate, not a live print.
(2) Regime: The tape is being driven by rates and energy. TheStreet reports the 10-year Treasury closed near 5.11% on Wednesday, its highest level since July 2007, and was edging toward 5.14% Thursday morning. Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-23/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates) reports Brent above $105 on Iran escalation threats, with chipmakers weak and the S&P 500 erasing its September gain. Commentary on investing.com references a hawkish Fed hike on Sep 17. The trend structure is still intact, however: StreetStats puts the index above its 50-day moving average (~7629) and well above its 200-day (~7197). My read is a risk-off pullback inside an uptrend, not a confirmed breakdown.
(3) Price range: I assume an implied one-day move of about 1.0-1.2%, higher than normal given the bond volatility and the small-cap underperformance. I skewed the range downward: the floor at $757 is about -1.3% from my estimate and sits roughly at the index's 50-day average of ~7630, translated to SPY at about $763, with room below for an intraday overshoot. The ceiling at $775 is about +1.0% and would recover Tuesday's close near $774. The 52-week high of $779 is unlikely to be reached in one session while yields are above 5.1%.
(4) Catalysts in the window: According to Schwab's calendar (https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-update-open), today brings August new home sales and after-close earnings from Costco and Darden. Friday Sep 25 brings August durable goods and final September University of Michigan sentiment, where the inflation-expectations component matters for yields. Also in play: the Trump-Xi meeting headlines from this week, Iran/Strait of Hormuz developments, and Fed speakers. August PCE on Sep 30 falls inside the 7-day window, not the 1-day window.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: StreetStats reported the index only -0.30% at 10 ET versus about -0.5% at the open, which suggests dip buyers are active. Bloomberg notes the Treasury selloff waning. A reversal in yields or a de-escalation headline on Iran or oil could produce a sharp short-covering rally back toward $774-775, as happened Sep 21, which TheStreet called the best day since early August. The bearish lean is invalidated if SPY reclaims about $774 and the 10-year falls back below about 5.05%. It is reinforced if the index loses its 50-day moving average on a closing basis.
(6) Confidence: 55%. The directional edge over one day is thin. Rates and oil point lower, but the trend structure and intraday dip buying argue against extrapolating. My price anchor is also derived from an index reading about an hour before the window start rather than a live SPY quote, which adds a dollar or two of uncertainty to the range. I cannot read a clock, so answered_at_utc is reported as unknown even though the retrieved news is dated Sep 24, 2026.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: SPY quoted at $769.96 with intraday high $770.18 and low $766.03, previous close $761.69, +1.09% on the session from FinancialContent data【1370110231419297189†L4-L6】. Other aggregators show $763.99-$766.09 same day, confirming high-760s context. Market news for Sep 24 2026 morning notes E-mini S&P 500 futures up about 0.1%【6443813732478910530†L5-L8】, with Richmond Fed reporting weaker manufacturing vs stronger S&P Global flash PMI at 58.4 in prior session.
(2) The current market regime: Up-trend intact - YTD +12.70% and 3-month +3.44%【1370110231419297189†L39-L42】, trading near 52-week high $779.37. Fed left rates unchanged on Sep 24 decision, market slipped 0.5% Wednesday, now digesting dot plot showing most participants expect another quarter-point hike to 4-4.25% and hold through 2027. Regime is late-cycle expansion with tight policy overhang, yielding choppy consolidation near highs.
(3) Price range justification: Using live quote $769.96 as anchor, 1-day realized volatility for large-cap ETF typically 0.7-1.1%. ATR-based envelope $8 either side covers ~1% move, consistent with futures +0.1% drift. Upper bound $778.00 sits just below 52-week high $779.37 resistance; lower bound $762.00 retests previous close $761.69 support【1370110231419297189†L10-L13】. Range skewed slightly bullish (+8.04 vs -7.96) but essentially symmetric, reflecting neutral short-term view.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major earnings inside 1-day window for SPY as basket. Catalysts are macro: Richmond Fed manufacturing release today (softer hint noted), S&P Global PMI strength raising hike odds, Fed Chair press conference digestion, 10-year yield near 5.06% highs. FedWatch repricing for hike timing moved forward to Sep 16 meeting earlier in September. Overnight global PMIs stronger, US data mixed - intraday driver will be yield moves and follow-through from Fed hold.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is Fed hawkish hold triggers yield spike and profit-taking from near-record highs, with S&P 500 falling 0.5% after Fed decision noted in AP report. If 10-year breaks above 5.06% or Richmond Fed weakness broadens, SPY could slice below $762 to $755. Invalidation of neutral-mild bullish is close below $761.69 prior close on heavy volume or close above $779.37 new high, which would extend trend.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects high conviction on current price (live retrieval) but low edge on 1-day direction at all-time-highs with conflicting signals (futures higher vs Fed on hold). Data_access live for price and futures, partial for macro context from aggregated news feeds. Directional noise dominates at 1-day horizon, so NEUTRAL is honest and range is volatility-based, not thesis-driven.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Found SPY trading around $764.42 as of 11:05 AM EDT on September 24, 2026, dropping 0.44% on the day, with data sourced from live quotes. The broader S&P 500 index closed 0.8% lower yesterday, and pressure continues today amid climbing Treasury yields and surging energy prices, according to Zacks Investment Research and BNN Bloomberg.
(2) The market has entered a defensive regime pressured by tighter financial conditions. Yesterday's Federal Reserve 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range, combined with hawkish commentary suggesting another hike this year, has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.13%. Compounding this, Brent crude surpassing $103 per barrel due to Middle East tensions is exacerbating inflation anxieties and weighing heavily on equities, particularly the tech sector.
(3) My 1-day price range of $754.50-$767.50 is anchored to the $764.42 spot. Given the breakdown in near-term momentum and DeMark analysis placing a pivot low at $763.88, a breach of today's intraday low of $763.62 invites further downside toward the $755 support zone. The upper bound is capped near yesterday's close of $767.81, as broad selling pressure (with decliners outnumbering advancers nearly 2-to-1) limits upside recovery in the immediate term.
(4) Scheduled catalysts today include President Trump and President Xi Jinping's meetings at the White House focusing on trade and AI, which could inject sudden headline volatility. Additionally, markets continue digesting hawkish comments from Fed officials like John Williams and Michael Barr, as well as rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran mentioned at the UN.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to this bearish view is the resilience of the underlying U.S. economy, highlighted by a surprising 6.4% surge in single-family home sales for August. If afternoon headlines from the White House talks skew highly positive on trade or AI, or if bond yields unexpectedly retrace, SPY could reverse its intraday losses and push back toward the $770.43 pivot high, invalidating the bearish momentum.
(6) Confidence is at 75% because the macro headwinds-a fresh Fed rate hike, surging oil, and yields at multi-decade highs-provide a clear directional bias for risk-off behavior in the short term. However, the potential for unpredictable geopolitical headlines from the White House meetings warrants a 25% margin of uncertainty.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance as of approximately 11:00 AM EDT on 2026-09-24 show SPY at $764.37, down 0.45% from the prior close of $767.81, with a day's range of $763.62-$766.43. Supporting prints from Marketscreener, Barchart, and TradeSmith confirm trading near $765 earlier in the session. News from Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, and Benzinga highlights a bond sell-off (30-year yields at multi-year highs), rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions, and the ongoing Trump-Xi meeting as key pressures.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: SPY remains in a longer-term uptrend near its 52-week high of $779.37, supported by strong earnings growth expectations for 2026, but short-term action shows risk-off pressure from higher yields and geopolitical uncertainty. Breadth has been mixed and leadership remains concentrated in technology/AI names. Realized volatility is moderate (around 13% annualized from recent data).
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live $764.37 quote, the one-day range of $758-$770 reflects typical daily ATR of roughly $5-8 in recent sessions plus modest expansion for yield and oil volatility. Downside room to the $758-760 zone aligns with the prior day's low and recent support; upside to $770 would require a relief bounce toward the prior close and recent highs near $773-775.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The Trump-Xi discussions and related trade/AI topics remain the primary near-term event; weekly jobless claims, building permits, new home sales, and Fed speaker remarks are also on the calendar. No major earnings dominate, but Costco and a few others report. Oil price swings and Treasury yield moves are the most immediate risks.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A constructive outcome from the Trump-Xi meeting or a sharp pullback in yields/oil could reverse the mild downside bias and push SPY back toward $770+. Invalidation would be a decisive break above $768-770 with volume or a breakdown below $760 that accelerates selling.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Short-horizon direction is inherently noisy; the mild bearish lean rests on current yield and geopolitical pressure rather than a structural breakdown. Live data confirm the price and catalysts, but one-day outcomes remain close to a coin-flip, hence the modest 42% confidence.
Kimi
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance show SPY at $764.12 as of the window start, down 0.48% on the session (regularMarketPrice 764.12, previousClose 767.81). Intraday data show the ETF opened at $764.07, traded as low as $763.62 and as high as $766.43. Yahoo Finance news dated 2026-09-24 frames the tape: equity futures and ETFs are lower pre-bell on ongoing Middle East tensions ahead of US-China talks, with Treasury yields keeping traders on edge; Wells Fargo just cut its S&P 500 target to 7,700, arguing AI spending math breaks in 2028; and a Trefis piece flags sticky inflation forcing the Fed back toward an active tightening stance.
(2) The current market regime as I read it: Choppy, mildly risk-off consolidation after a strong Monday rally (+1.55% on 2026-09-21) that took SPY to $773.50, followed by two down days (-0.72% Tuesday, -0.47% Wednesday into today). Price is hovering just above the 50-day average of $760.91, well above the 200-day at $717.61, so the medium-term uptrend is intact but short-term momentum has faded. Realized volatility is elevated versus the summer: roughly 10.5% annualized over 20 days and 14% over the last 5 days, with an average daily range near $5.30 over the past two weeks.
(3) Price range justification: For a one-day window I anchor on the current $764.12 and use the recent daily range of roughly $5-6 plus the 50-day floor near $760.91. The lower bound of $758 sits just below the 50-day average and near the September 15-16 congestion zone around $755-756, a level buyers defended two weeks ago. The upper bound of $772 corresponds to yesterday's gap-down area and the underside of Monday-Tuesday's consolidation near $773-775. The range is deliberately skewed slightly downward, reflecting today's negative momentum and the macro headwinds, but it is not deeply bearish because the ETF remains above its 50-day and the Monday rally showed buyers still step in on dips.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The dominant near-term catalyst is the Trump-Xi meeting, with headlines around trade and AI likely to whipsaw markets through the session; US-China talks are explicitly cited in today's Yahoo Finance pre-market coverage. Retail earnings and housing indicators are also on today's calendar per Benzinga's morning preview. Any surprise on Middle East developments or Treasury yields could extend the pullback, while constructive summit headlines could fuel a snap-back toward $772.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The pullback over the last two days is modest in the context of a +16.7% trailing twelve-month gain and a market still above its 50-day average; Monday's 1.55% rally demonstrated that dip-buying remains active, and Stocktwits retail sentiment for SPY has reportedly improved to bullish. If summit headlines are constructive or yields retreat, SPY could reclaim $770-772 quickly, invalidating the mild-bearish tilt. A decisive break below $758, conversely, would open the way to the September lows near $752 and confirm the bearish read.
(6) Why confidence is 55%: The quote and recent prints are live and reliable, which supports the anchor, but a one-day directional call on an index ETF in headline-driven conditions is close to noise. The mild-bearish lean is based on real evidence (two-day fade, soft pre-market tone, macro friction), yet the strength of the recent trend and the possibility of positive summit news argue for humility, so confidence is set only modestly above coin-flip.
DeepSeek V3
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: SPY closed Wednesday at $767.81, down 0.72%, per TheStreet Pro's most-active ETF table and futunn's session data. The futunn quote page shows SPY at $765.30 as of Sep 24 10:51 ET (14:51 UTC), down 0.33% intraday, with an open of $763.96 against a prior close of $767.81. The S&P 500 cash index was at 7,687.70 by 10:34 ET, down 0.24% on the day, per CNN's live markets feed. These are the freshest prints I could retrieve inside the window; the price I report is the futunn intraday quote, the closest available to the 15:07 UTC baseline.
(2) Market regime: The dominant driver is a global bond sell-off. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 5.15% Thursday morning, its highest since 2007, while the 30-year hit 5.45%, a level last seen in 2004. September flash PMIs came in at a five-year high of 58.4 for the composite, which traders read as fuelling further Fed tightening: CME FedWatch via CNN showed the odds of an October hike at 64%, up from 11% a month ago. Brent crude traded near $105 on Middle East supply risk, compounding inflation fears. The dollar index held near a two-month high above 101. SPY saw $22.64 billion of outflows in the week to Sep 18, per GuruFocus. VIX was around 16.4, its highest of the week but still low by 2026 standards. The regime is a yield-driven de-rating of equities, not a growth scare.
(3) Price range justification: I am using the futunn intraday print of $765.30 as the anchor. The day's range so far spans $763.62 to $766.43 per futunn, and the prior session printed a $766.50 low against a $773 high. The nearest support shelf sits at $761.76, the original breakout floor cited by TradingView's virDeStatera, with a deeper gap zone at $757.45 and the September 16 low at $749.60. Overhead resistance is at $770.09, the shelf lost Wednesday, then $773-$775, the recent high zone, and the 52-week high of $777.44. Daily implied volatility from SPXW options pricing was about 0.48% per Saxo, roughly 3.7 SPY points, but with the Trump-Xi summit running through the session I have widened the band to about 8 points below and 6 points above. The asymmetry reflects the yield and rate-hike overhang.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The Trump-Xi summit is the single largest event. Closed-door meetings were expected to begin around 11:30 ET (15:30 UTC), with trade truce extension, AI cooperation, rare earths and Taiwan arms sales on the agenda. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a two-month extension of the Busan Agreement truce to January 10, a de-escalation signal but shorter than some had hoped, and Chinese markets sold off on summit scepticism. Fed speakers Barkin, Hammack and Paulson were scheduled through the afternoon, and US August new home sales were due at 14:00 GMT. Any headline from the summit or a hawkish Fed comment can move the tape sharply.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The bull case rests on the summit producing a concrete trade breakthrough that forces a short-covering rally, plus the fact that VIX remains in the low end of 2026's range and the S&P 500 is still within 2.5% of its 52-week high. Energy is the only sector holding gains, and a fading oil spike would relieve yield pressure. My call would be invalidated by a sustained move above $773 on heavy volume, which would signal buyers are looking through the rate story, or by a sharp pullback in the 10-year yield below 5% that removes the primary source of equity pressure.
(6) Why confidence is 62%: The macro backdrop is unusually one-directional, with yields, oil, the dollar and rate-hike odds all moving against equities simultaneously, and SPY-specific outflows confirm distribution. That argues for a stronger bearish conviction. However, a live superpower summit inside the window is a genuine two-sided event risk that can override the macro tape in either direction on a single headline, and the VIX at 16 is not pricing panic. A 62% confidence reflects a clear directional lean with meaningful event-driven uncertainty, not a high-conviction call.
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