This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-14 14:23 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-15 14:23 UTC, when SPY closed at $757.47, down 0.2% from $759.30 when the forecast was made. It traded between $757.42 and $763.52 along the way (-0.2% to +0.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-14 14:23 UTC (9/14/2026, 10:23:38 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-15 14:23 UTC (9/15/2026, 10:23:38 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-15 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 6 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $750.50–$767.50 | -1.2% to +1.0% | 55% | $759.70 | 53.9 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $755.00–$770.00 | -1.2% to +0.7% | 58% | $764.29 | 81.5 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $752.00–$765.00 | -1.0% to +0.8% | 70% | $759.22 | 54.9 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $754.00–$765.00 | -0.8% to +0.7% | 42% | $760.00 | 53.8 | no call |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | $752.00–$768.00 | -1.1% to +1.1% | 58% | $760.00 | 54.1 | no call |
| GPT-6 | $750.00–$767.00 | -1.4% to +0.8% | 60% | $761.01 | 82.1 | right |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-14 14:23 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-6 | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 9 | — | 4 | — | 5 · 4 right | 80% (4/5) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 9 | — | 7 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Grok 4.5 | 9 | — | 9 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-14 14:23 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Claude Opus 5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: SPY closed Friday 11 September at $764.29, up 0.85% on the day, with an after-hours print of $764.48 and a 52-week range of $629.28 to $779.37 (finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY, investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500, stockanalysis.com). This morning the index is lower: Yahoo's live blog had the S&P 500 down 0.51% at 9:36 ET with the Dow at 52,462.59 as of 10:16 ET, while TheStreet at 9:56 ET had the S&P down 0.75%, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.17%, the Dow down 0.28% and the Russell 2000 up 0.45%; CNBC had the S&P down 0.6% (finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com, cnbc.com). Applying roughly a 0.6% decline to Friday's close gives about $759.70, which is my anchor. I could not retrieve a tick dated at or after the 14:23 UTC baseline, so data_access is 'partial'.
(2) Market regime: two weekend shocks hitting a market that had almost no volatility priced in. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay on Saturday urging the industry to slow frontier model development, with OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk agreeing and Altman suggesting OpenAI's IPO could be delayed for safety reasons; the AI and semiconductor complex sold off globally, with Nvidia down more than 2% premarket, Marvell down 7.59%, QQQ down 1.45% premarket and Samsung down 4.05% (Reuters via investing.com, thestreet.com, investrade.com). Separately Saudi Arabia shut a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent up about 3% to $107.65 and WTI futures up 4.30%. This lands on an index that Yahoo noted was within 2% of its 13 August all-time closing high with S&P daily Bollinger band width at its tightest of the year, and with rate-hike odds for Wednesday near 88% after hot August core CPI. The dispersion is the tell: mega-cap technology is doing the damage while the Dow and Russell 2000 barely move, which is a rotation rather than a liquidation.
(3) Price range: anchored at $759.70 with a downside tilt. Realised volatility has been unusually compressed, but a tight band pinch of this kind typically precedes an expansion, and today is the expansion. I am using a daily sigma near 0.9% for the session rather than the recent sub-0.7% average, giving roughly -1.2% to +1.0%, or $750.50 to $767.50. The reference levels are Friday's $764.29 close and the $766.38 recent intraday high above, with the 52-week high at $779.37 well out of reach in this window; below, there is no obvious structure until the low $750s given how quickly the index has been marked up since mid-August. The extra room below reflects that both shocks are still developing rather than resolving.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: Monday's calendar is effectively empty of US data, so the rest of today is flow and headline driven. Tuesday 15 September brings August retail sales, Empire State manufacturing and industrial production at 8:30 and 9:15 ET, all of which land inside the window before it closes at 10:23 ET. The FOMC begins its two-day meeting Tuesday, but the decision, Summary of Economic Projections and press conference are Wednesday 16 September, outside this window, which means Tuesday morning is pre-event positioning rather than event resolution. Unscheduled risks run both ways: further Saudi or Iran headlines on the pipeline and strait, and any walk-back or endorsement of the AI slowdown proposal, which President Trump has already publicly dismissed on competitiveness grounds.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: the market has repeatedly bought AI-scare selloffs this year within a single session, and the index has held up through consistently rising energy prices and Treasury yields for weeks without breaking. A call to slow model development can be read as bullish for the platform companies, since it lowers required capital expenditure while leaving revenue intact, and Trump's dismissal removes the regulatory teeth from the story. The breadth picture supports this: the Russell 2000 is up 0.45% and the Dow is down less than 0.3%, so this is not a broad de-risking. Strong August retail sales on Tuesday morning could also confirm a resilient consumer, following August payrolls of 162,000 against 55,000 expected. A reclaim of $764 and a close above Friday's level would invalidate the lean; a failure to hold the low $750s would confirm it.
(6) Why 55%: the anchor is solid, derived from a confirmed Friday close plus three independent intraday percentage readings within an hour of the baseline, so the range should be reliable. The directional component is where the doubt sits. Roughly half of the move I am forecasting has already printed before the window opened, which means I am partly betting on continuation rather than on the shock itself, and intraday reversals after gap-down opens on headline news are common. 55% reflects moderate confidence in the band and only a modest lean on direction.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Wallstreetnumbers and FinancialContent both report SPY price $764.29 as of Sep 11 2026, up +0.85% session, up 12.08% YTD, 16.26% past year, -1.93% below historical high $779.37 set Aug 13 2026. Market Chameleon confirms close Sep 11. Context from Sep 14 search: Brent crude $106.69 up 1.99% and $109.36 up 4.55% (Trading Economics), WTI $102, XLE +0.83% Wednesday, ExxonMobil +1% premarket, US futures mixed as oil above $102 and 4.86% yield cloud open. Fed hike odds 58-86% into Sep 15-16 FOMC per multiple sources.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Late-cycle risk-off rotation. SPY near all-time high but momentum stalling into Fed week with higher real yields pressuring tech multiples. Energy and financials outperforming, growth underperforming per Zacks Sep 3 note. YTD +12% but 3-year low $409.21 in Oct 2023 shows extended rally vulnerable to hawkish repricing. Volume and breadth weakening, defensive sectors leading.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $764.29 close Sep 11. Using historical high $779.37 as upper resistance and recent pullback risk. Daily ATR ~1.2% given elevated VIX into FOMC. Set range $755 to $770, slight downside skew reflecting Fed hike risk and oil shock weighing on consumer discretionary and tech within SPY. Lower bound ~1.2% below current captures retest of ~$760 support, upper bound ~0.7% above captures bounce toward $770 if yields ease. More room below than above signals mild bearish tilt for 1 day.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 14 14:23 UTC 1 day covers Sep 15 regular session, which is first day of Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting. No CPI inside window after Sep 11 PPI/CPI already digested. Catalysts: oil price follow-through, Canada CPI Aug 14 8:30am ET and manufacturing sales same morning per bestcanadianstocks, US futures positioning, and Fed meeting start. Earnings light, macro dominates.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: dovish Fed leak or softer oil after Hormuz talks reopen could drop yields and spark SPY squeeze back toward $779 high, especially if energy profit-taking rotates back into tech. September has been best since 2016 per Cointelegraph with +4% MTD for BTC, indicating risk appetite not dead. Invalidation: daily close above $772 with falling yields and Brent below $100 would negate mild bearish bias; close below $755 would extend correction toward $740.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% reflects live price confirmed Sep 11 from two independent aggregators but limited real-time intraday book for Sep 14 weekend. Direction over 1 day into FOMC is close to noise, with mixed signals: strong YTD uptrend vs near-term rate headwind. Labeling live because price dated after baseline window start minus weekend closure, but not overstating precision.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data via Google Search placing SPY at $759.22 as of 14:23 UTC on September 14, 2026, down approximately 0.66% from its previous Friday close.
(2) Market regime: The market is operating in a risk-off, defensive environment. Sticky inflation readings and concerns over rising energy costs have pressured equities, prompting capital to rotate out of high-beta growth sectors and keeping the broader S&P 500 constrained under recent resistance levels.
(3) Price range: I project a 24-hour range of $752.00-$765.00. The morning selloff to $759 indicates active distribution. Immediate technical support lies around the $752 to $755 zone, while the previous close near $764.30 acts as near-term resistance.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: Price action over the next 24 hours will likely be dominated by defensive repositioning ahead of the upcoming mid-September FOMC rate decision. Without major earnings reports to distract from macro headwinds, traders are expected to trim exposure.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: A sudden de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a dovish leak regarding the Federal Reserve's rate path could trigger a rapid short-covering rally, pushing SPY back above the $765 pivot and invalidating the bearish bias.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 70%. The intraday downside momentum and macroeconomic headwinds provide a clear bearish tilt, but the potential for mean-reversion bounces in a high-liquidity ETF like SPY keeps conviction measured for a 1-day horizon.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from CNBC (approximately $760.44 around 10:13 AM EDT), MarketWatch premarket and early session levels near $759, Investing.com (~$760), and consistent cross-references place SPY near $760 as of the 14:23 UTC window start. Previous regular close was $764.29 on September 11.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The session opened lower and remains under pressure from AI-sector weakness following weekend comments by Anthropic and OpenAI executives calling for slower frontier-model development, combined with a renewed oil-price spike on Middle East supply concerns. Fed hike odds remain elevated ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision, supporting a cautious tone. Technology is the clear laggard while energy and some defensives show relative strength.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $760, the $754-$765 band reflects typical 1-day realized volatility of roughly 0.7-1.0% and recent daily ranges. Downside allows a test of the mid-$750s support zone seen earlier in the week; upside is capped near the prior close and early-session highs without a clear catalyst for reversal.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major U.S. economic releases fall inside the immediate 24-hour window. Positioning ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting (decision September 16) and any further moves in oil or AI-related headlines will dominate near-term price action.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on reversal driven by fading AI concerns, a pullback in oil prices, or constructive pre-Fed positioning could push SPY back above $765 and neutralize the mild bearish bias. A decisive break and hold below $754 would confirm deeper pressure beyond the stated range.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest at 42% because the 1-day window sits inside an already-active session with elevated but unresolved macro event risk, sector dispersion is high, and short-term directional edge remains limited relative to normal equity noise.
Claude Sonnet 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: SPY closed Friday September 11 at $764.29 and opened Monday September 14 at $759.83, gapping below the $762.57 shelf and sitting on the $759.13 range low (TradingView, virDeStatera). Benzinga reported SPY trading around $760.00 at 8:54 AM ET on September 14. S&P 500 futures were down roughly 0.5-0.7% in premarket trading, with Nasdaq-100 futures down 1.2-1.7%, according to Investing.com and Yonhap Infomax. The VIX was quoted at 15.84 after an 11.2% drop on Friday (Yahoo Finance, Saxo Bank). The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.98%, and Brent crude climbed close to $110 per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline following drone attacks (WSJ live coverage, Newbridge Securities).
(2) Current market regime: The dominant driver is a combination of AI safety concerns and energy-driven inflation anxiety. Over the weekend, leaders of Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI publicly called for a slowdown in AI development, which triggered sharp premarket selling in semiconductor and AI infrastructure names including Nvidia (down 4%), CoreWeave (down 7%), and Marvell (down over 8%). Simultaneously, Brent crude pushed toward $110 as Middle East tensions escalated, with Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping. The 10-year yield near 5% and an 87-88.5% implied probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday (Newbridge Securities, Benzinga) are adding pressure to rate-sensitive growth names. This is a risk-off, pre-FOMC positioning session with no major U.S. economic data on the calendar.
(3) Price range justification: I am anchoring to $760, the approximate level where SPY was trading in the premarket. The immediate support zone is $759.13 (the range low that has been tested repeatedly) and $756.63 (Thursday's low). A breakdown below $756.63 opens the $753.22 structural floor. On the upside, resistance sits at $762.57 (the failed shelf) and $765.52 (the week-long cap). The daily and 4-hour charts are both in NR7 compression, meaning a range expansion is likely. Given the bearish premarket catalysts and the gap down through $762.57, I expect SPY to spend more time in the lower half of the range, with $752-$768 covering the likely session extremes.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The only notable U.S. event scheduled for September 14 is the Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction at 11:30 AM ET. Canadian CPI and Manufacturing Sales were released at 8:30 AM ET. The primary focus is pre-positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision and Chair Warsh's press conference. Any headline escalation in the Middle East or further AI safety commentary could trigger additional volatility. There is no earnings or data release that would provide a positive counterweight.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest counter-argument is that Friday's rally showed investors are willing to buy dips, and the AI safety warnings may be a short-lived narrative rather than a fundamental shift in demand. If SPY holds $759.13 and reclaims $762.57, the setup would flip to constructive, with $765.52 and then $772 coming into play. A de-escalation in the Middle East or a dovish leak ahead of the Fed could also spark a sharp reversal. My call would be invalidated by a sustained break above $765.52 on rising volume.
(6) Confidence: I am at 58% because the directional evidence is clear (gap down, risk-off catalysts, pre-FOMC caution), but the compression in the daily and 4-hour charts means the actual range could resolve in either direction, and a single headline could swing sentiment. The window is only one session, and with no major data release, positioning flow and Treasury yields will dominate. The bearish case is stronger than the bullish case, but not overwhelmingly so.
GPT-6
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Price and access: The freshest explicitly timestamped quote I retrieved was $761.01 at September 14, 10:09 EDT, equivalent to 14:09 UTC. That is 14 minutes before the requested baseline, so I use it as an estimate rather than claim an exact 14:23 UTC price. The same source reports a $764.29 previous close and $759.00 opening price. Data access is partial because no retrieved market observation was conclusively timestamped at or after the baseline. [SPY quote](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/).
(2) Market regime: SPY was recovering from its opening decline but remained below Friday's close. Monday reporting describes AI-related equity weakness alongside renewed oil-supply concerns and elevated Treasury yields. My inference is that these pressures modestly outweigh the opening rebound over one day, while the immediate hourly direction remains uncertain. [Reuters market report](https://au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/shares-slip-in-asia-as-oil-climbs-rate-hikes-loom-4639617).
(3) Range justification: I interpret the forecast as September 14 at 14:23 UTC through September 15 at 14:23 UTC, including overnight price risk. The $750-$767 range allows approximately 1.45% downside and 0.79% upside from the anchor. Using the five completed sessions through September 11, I calculate an average true range of approximately $5.55 from the retrieved daily highs, lows and previous closes; the proposed bounds allow roughly two such ranges below and one above. The September 10 low of $756.64 and September 11 high of $766.38 are nearby historical reference levels. [Historical prices](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/history/).
(4) Catalysts: The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is scheduled for September 15 at or shortly after 08:30 ET, approximately 12:30 UTC, inside the window. Its activity and price components could alter growth and inflation expectations before Tuesday's opening session. The September 16 Fed decision occurs outside this forecast, although positioning ahead of it remains relevant; oil-supply and AI-policy headlines are additional unscheduled risks. [New York Fed schedule](https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview), [Federal Reserve calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm).
(5) Counterargument: The opening rebound may reflect durable demand rather than a temporary recovery. A sustained return above Friday's $764.29 close, followed by acceptance above its $766.38 high, would weaken the bearish interpretation. Lower oil prices or reassuring technology-sector news could produce that outcome; renewed weakness below $756.64 would instead support the downside scenario.
(6) Confidence: The 60% figure is my subjective probability that the full window's traded-price path remains within the proposed range, not a calibrated statistical interval or the probability of a negative ending return. The directional edge is modest. The delayed baseline quote, improving early price action and unpredictable overnight headlines prevent higher confidence.
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