This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-28 14:32 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-29 14:32 UTC, when SPY closed at $765.44, down 0.2% from $767.19 when the forecast was made. It traded between $763.72 and $769.54 along the way (-0.5% to +0.3%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-28 14:32 UTC (9/28/2026, 10:32:09 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-29 14:32 UTC (9/29/2026, 10:32:09 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-29 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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1 of the 6 models called a direction, and 1 of that call was right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | $764.50–$772.80 | -0.5% to +0.6% | 55% | $768.05 | 54.7 | no call |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $759.00–$773.00 | -1.0% to +0.8% | 30% | $767.00 | 78.1 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $762.50–$772.00 | -0.7% to +0.6% | 65% | $767.73 | 55.0 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $760.00–$775.00 | -1.0% to +0.9% | 57% | $767.71 | 54.1 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $760.00–$772.00 | -0.7% to +0.9% | 45% | $765.47 | 53.9 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $760.00–$776.00 | -1.0% to +1.0% | 58% | $767.99 | 54.1 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-28 14:32 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 11 | — | 7 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 11 | — | 8 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 11 | — | 7 | — | 4 · 1 right | 25% (1/4) |
| DeepSeek | 10 | — | 6 | 1 · 1 right | 3 · 0 right | 25% (1/4) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 7 | — | 5 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 8 | — | 8 | — | — | — |
| Perplexity | 2 | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-28 14:32 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Perplexity
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SPY is trading near $768.05 as of September 28, 2026, down approximately 0.3-0.5% intraday as U.S. stocks face pressure from rising Treasury yields (10-year above 5.1%) and rebounding crude oil prices. The S&P 500 futures are lower by ~0.4% in pre-market and early session trading, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Trump's rejection of Iran Hormuz deal) adding to risk-off sentiment. Despite the pullback, SPY remains near all-time highs (~$779 peak in August 2026) and is up ~0.5% on the week, supported by strong tech sector performance and Q4 seasonal tailwinds. [Sources: Robinhood, TradingView, Benzinga, CNBC]
(2) Technical synthesis: On the 1-hour chart, SPY is consolidating below $769 with mild selling pressure, suggesting a near-term bias toward testing support at $766-$765. The 4-hour and daily charts show a neutral structure: price is range-bound between $766 support (intraday low) and $772-$774 resistance (prior consolidation zone and 52-week high proximity). A sustained break above $772.50 would open the path toward $775-$779 (all-time highs), while a break below $764.50 could trigger a deeper correction toward $760-$758 (August consolidation). Options flow shows heavy open interest at the 767 strike (both calls and puts) for September 28 expiry, creating a magnet effect around this level. [Sources: Investing.com, TrendSpider, Barchart]
(3) Price range: The $764.50-$772.80 range reflects a neutral-to-slightly-bearish 1-day outlook. Downside risk is elevated by Treasury yield pressure and oil spike, with support at $766 (intraday low) and $764.50 (August consolidation top). Upside is capped by overhead resistance at $772-$774 (prior highs) and the need to digest last week's gains. Expected 1-day volatility is ~0.8-1.2% based on recent ATR and options implied volatility (~9% for weekly options). The range is asymmetric: more room below ($3.55) than above ($4.75) to reflect mild bearish pressure from macro headwinds, but with a bullish bias on the week due to Q4 seasonality and tech strength. [Sources: Robinhood, Investing.com, TrendSpider]
(4) Catalysts: No major scheduled catalysts within the 1-day window. Key drivers include: (a) U.S. Treasury yield movements (10-year above 5.1% pressures equity valuations); (b) Crude oil price spike (geopolitical tensions in Middle East); (c) Fed rate hike expectations for October (currently priced at ~70% probability of 25bp hike); (d) Q4 seasonal tailwinds (historical data shows above-average returns in 18 of last 21 years with similar setups, per Ryan Detrick/Carson Group); (e) Tech sector earnings momentum (NVDA, MU in focus). [Sources: Benzinga, TradingView, SeekingAlpha]
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish case is that Q4 seasonality and tech sector strength override macro headwinds, propelling SPY above $772.50 toward $775-$779 (all-time highs). This would invalidate the neutral-to-mild-bearish range and suggest the pullback is a buying opportunity. Conversely, a further spike in Treasury yields (10-year toward 5.3-5.4%) or escalation in Middle East tensions could push SPY below $764.50 toward $760-$758, confirming a deeper correction is underway. [Sources: Benzinga, TradingView]
(6) Confidence: 55% reflects a genuinely uncertain 1-day outlook. The market is in a consolidation phase near all-time highs, with mixed signals: bullish Q4 seasonality and tech momentum vs. bearish macro (yields, oil, geopolitics). Technical structure is neutral, with no clear directional bias on the daily chart. Moderate confidence is appropriate for a 1-day forecast in a range-bound, macro-driven environment. A higher-confidence call would require a decisive break above $772.50 or below $764.50 with follow-through. [Sources: Robinhood, Investing.com, TrendSpider]
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: I could not retrieve a live SPY quote stamped at or after 14:32 UTC; the most recent direct SPY prints I found were from late August and early September (769.35 on Aug 28 per Yahoo history, 765.96 on Sep 8 per Google Finance). Current index data: the S&P 500 closed Friday Sept 25 at 7,743.41 (+0.51%, CNBC/Investrade) and was down about 0.45-0.5% shortly after Monday's open (Yahoo Finance live blog: -0.45% at 10:09 ET; TheStreet: -0.48%). Using SPY's typical ratio of roughly 1/10.05 of the index, Friday's SPY close was about $770.5, and applying the -0.45% move gives an estimated $767. This is a derived estimate, not a quote.
(2) Regime: risk-off open. Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal and Brent jumped to about $107-108. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.2%, a two-decade high, and the dollar is firmer. A software rout and OpenAI's training pause weigh on tech (Bloomberg, Investing.com). Offsets: NVIDIA's record $150B buyback increase is lifting the largest index weight about 3%, energy is rallying, and the index remains within about 1% of record highs. Breadth is poor: the equal-weight S&P 500 relative to the cap-weighted index is near its lowest level since 2003 (TheStreet Pro).
(3) Range: VIX is about 16 (Yahoo), implying roughly 1% daily moves, or about ±$7-8 on SPY. I set $759-773: about $8 of room below and $6 above, a slight downside tilt reflecting the macro headwinds, while keeping the one-day call NEUTRAL because the index has repeatedly absorbed oil and yield shocks this month.
(4) Catalysts in the window: US-Iran indirect talks that Trump says resume this week, where any Hormuz headline could swing oil and equities by 1% or more; the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey (10:30 ET today); Jefferies and Vail Resorts earnings after today's close; and positioning ahead of Wednesday's PCE and Friday's payrolls. Micron reports Sept 30, outside the window.
(5) Counter-argument: dip-buying has been reliable. Friday's rally came despite high yields, NVIDIA's buyback supports cap-weighted tech, and a softer oil print on diplomatic reports (Bloomberg noted Brent paring gains on reports that talks would continue) could produce a full intraday recovery. The mild downside tilt is invalidated by a close back above Friday's roughly $770-771; a break below the mid-$760s with the 10-year above 5.25% would strengthen the bearish case.
(6) Confidence: 30% because my price anchor is derived from index levels and an assumed SPY/SPX ratio rather than a direct live quote, and one-day direction for the broad index is close to a coin flip in a headline-driven market.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Sources and findings: Live Google search structured data shows SPY trading at $767.73 as of 14:30 UTC on September 28, 2026. The ETF opened near $768.48 and has slightly declined intraday. Recent financial news indicates market breadth concerns as SPY nears its record highs.
(2) Market regime: The current regime appears range-bound with a slight bearish intraday drift. Equities are holding near record highs but face technical resistance, suggesting near-term exhaustion among buyers and a cautious sentiment as institutions digest recent gains.
(3) Price range justification: The forecast range of $762.50 to $772.00 accounts for current intraday volatility and consolidation patterns. The lower bound aligns with recent support levels established in mid-September, while the upper bound respects the recent pivot high and psychological resistance near all-time highs.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will likely be driven by institutional repositioning following the morning's pullback, intraday fluctuations in US Treasury yields, and broad market reactions to shifting sector breadth.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument to a neutral, range-bound view is the persistent underlying strength in mega-cap tech components. A sudden acceleration in tech buying or an unexpected drop in bond yields could quickly invalidate the cautious thesis and push SPY above $772.00 in a breakout.
(6) Confidence assessment: Confidence is placed at 65%. While intraday technicals point toward a consolidation phase with limited immediate upside, the broader market's proximity to record highs introduces the risk of either unpredictable breakout momentum or sudden, aggressive profit-taking.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Stockscan.io reports SPY latest close Sep 28 2026 $767.71, all-time high $779.37 Aug 13 2026. Digrin shows September 2026 adjusted $771.36. Coinarbitragebot Sep 28 12:30 GMT reports $770.12. Algotradealert morning update Sep 28 notes S&P 500 futures near 7,770 -0.43% indicating soft open. Primary uptrend intact per SyntheticAlpha with 20>50>200 MA stack.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Large-cap equities at macro inflection with yields at multi-year highs pressuring multiples. SPY down from ATH ~1.5%, futures -0.43% Sep 28 morning showing mild risk-off. Earnings Q1 2026 beat and Fed rate-cut path for H2 2026 per SyntheticAlpha constructive but near-term headwind from rates.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Recent daily volatility ~0.8-1% with futures -0.43%. Lower bound $760 near 1% below current support around 7,700 futures equivalent, upper bound $775 near below ATH $779 resistance. Range slightly bearish skew with more room below reflecting futures down and yield pressure.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Durable goods orders and jobs week data Sep 28-29 main macro catalysts per earlier notes. No SPY-specific catalyst but NVDA and mega-cap moves drive index. No Fed meeting in 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bullish case is AI capex and earnings beats continuing, with 39% tech weight including NVDA 7.84% driving SPY higher. Invalidation would be close above $775 and reclaim of $779 ATH with falling yields and strong data.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 57% based on live close data from stockscan and futures data, but 1-day SPY direction is low signal-to-noise. Confidence modest due to conflicting signals of intact uptrend vs near-term yield headwind.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quote from Yahoo Finance as of approximately 11:12 AM EDT on 28 Sep 2026 shows SPY at $765.47, down $5.87 (-0.76%) from the prior close of $771.35 (25 Sep). Session range so far is $763.72-$768.59. Historical closes (Stocknear, FT.com, MarketWatch) confirm Friday close at $771.35 after a modest +0.54% session. SPY tracks the S&P 500; recent sessions have been range-bound near the upper end of the multi-month range, with 52-week high near $779 and low near $629.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The broad equity market is consolidating after a solid multi-week advance. Intraday action shows mild selling pressure with the ETF trading below the prior close and failing to hold early session levels. Underlying constituents are mixed-some large-cap technology names firm while others and more cyclical areas lag-producing a slightly softer tape without clear panic or aggressive buying. Volatility remains moderate relative to the leveraged products.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live $765.47 print. Recent daily ranges for SPY have typically been $5-$10. A one-day horizon therefore accommodates a modest extension of the current pullback toward the mid-$760s or a recovery back toward the prior close and $770-$772 if buying reappears. The band reflects typical S&P 500 ETF volatility rather than extreme event-driven swings.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major economic data releases, FOMC decisions, or large-cap earnings fall inside the one-day window. Price action will be driven primarily by residual flows from Friday’s close, any further reaction to individual stock news (including technology names), and overall risk appetite. The absence of a dominant catalyst favors range-bound behavior.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on rebound in mega-cap technology or positive macro headlines could push SPY back above $770 and invalidate the mild near-term caution. Conversely, broader selling pressure or a spike in yields could extend the decline below $760. The neutral 1d stance reflects the lack of a decisive directional impulse on the day.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: SPY’s one-day moves are frequently noise-dominated in the absence of major catalysts. The mild intraday softness supports a cautious lean on shorter intraday horizons, yet the broader multi-week uptrend and lack of clear negative catalysts keep the full-day view neutral. Confidence is therefore modest at 45%.
DeepSeek
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: I retrieved an intraday quote for SPY at $767.99 (Futunn, 2026-09-28), down from Friday's close of $771.35. Premarket trading showed $767.90 (TradingView, Sept 28), giving back Friday's reclaim of $770.09. The prior session (Sept 25) closed at $771.35, up 0.54%. Key news: RBC Capital Markets published a report predicting a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback (TradingView/MarketWatch, Sept 28); Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal, reviving geopolitical risk; and the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5%.
(2) Market regime: The market is in a cautious, risk-off posture. SPY is testing the critical 766-768 support zone that has held on multiple occasions. The 10-year yield above 5% pressures equity valuations, particularly growth and tech names. Weak breadth (eight of eleven sectors negative in September) suggests the rally is dependent on mega-cap AI leadership. The put wall at 765 and max pain at 766 from options data indicate dealers are positioned for the index to hold this area, but a break would likely accelerate selling.
(3) Price range justification: I am using a $760-$776 range. The lower bound reflects the structural floor at $761.76 and the daily cloud support at $763.69, with a buffer for a flush if the 766 zone breaks. The upper bound is capped by the $772-$775 resistance zone (50-day MA and recent consolidation shelf). SPY's average daily range is roughly $8-$10, so a $16 range is consistent with current volatility. The range is skewed slightly to the downside given the bearish premarket action and macro headwinds.
(4) Catalysts: No major economic releases inside the 1-day window. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index (16:30 GMT) is a minor data point. The key catalysts are later in the week: PCE inflation and GDP on Wednesday, and the September jobs report on Friday. Geopolitical headlines around Iran and oil prices remain a wildcard that could move the index intraday.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bull case is that the 766-768 support has repeatedly attracted buyers, and the options positioning (put wall at 765, max pain at 766) suggests dealers will defend this area. If SPY reclaims 770, it could retest 772-775. A close above 775 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Conversely, a break below 764.76 would confirm the breakdown and open the door to 760 and below.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 58% because the technical setup is clear - SPY is at a make-or-break support level - but the 1-day horizon is noisy, and the options market is positioned for a hold. The macro backdrop (rising yields, geopolitical risk) tilts the balance of outcomes to the downside, but the support zone is strong enough to warrant a modest edge rather than high conviction.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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