This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-22 14:53 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-23 14:53 UTC, when SPY closed at $769.72, down 0.5% from $773.48 when the forecast was made. It traded between $768.37 and $774.94 along the way (-0.7% to +0.2%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-22 14:53 UTC (9/22/2026, 10:53:10 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-23 14:53 UTC (9/23/2026, 10:53:10 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-23 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 6 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Muse Spark 1.1 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $767.50–$783.50 | -0.9% to +1.2% | 57% | $774.42 | 31.3 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5 | $767.00–$780.00 | -0.9% to +0.8% | 30% | $774.00 | 53.1 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $760.00–$771.00 | -0.7% to +0.8% | 56% | $765.16 | 50.7 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $768.00–$780.00 | -0.7% to +0.9% | 65% | $773.28 | 54.8 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $769.00–$778.50 | -0.6% to +0.6% | 45% | $773.80 | 54.1 | no call |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | $768.00–$781.00 | -0.7% to +1.0% | 55% | $773.50 | 31.4 | wrong |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-22 14:53 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 12 | — | 4 | 1 · 0 right | 7 · 6 right | 75% (6/8) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 15 | — | 8 | — | 7 · 4 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 9 | — | 5 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 15 | — | 11 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 14 | — | 6 | 4 · 1 right | 4 · 1 right | 25% (2/8) |
| Grok 4.5 | 12 | — | 12 | — | — | — |
| Kimi | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-22 14:53 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Zacks listed SPY at $774.42 on September 22 when checked after the requested baseline, while Reuters reported the S&P 500 index opening at 7,770.81 and moving higher early in the session. The Zacks page identifies the quote as updated on September 22 but does not expose a precise trade timestamp, so I classify data_access as partial rather than live. Sources: https://www.zacks.com/featured-articles/801/best-sp-500-etfs and https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-pause-after-ai-rally-focus-mideast-tensions-2026-09-22/
(2) Market regime: The broad market remains mildly risk-on after Monday's strong rebound. Reuters reported positive market breadth at Tuesday's open, with advancing issues outnumbering decliners and the Nasdaq reaching another intraday record. Falling crude oil prices and easing Treasury yields are supporting equity valuations, although Tuesday's gains are much smaller than Monday's AI-driven surge. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/snapshot-nasdaq-hits-intraday-record-high-tech-stocks-regain-footing-2026-09-22/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-09-22/
(3) Price range: I use $767.50-$783.50 for the next 24 hours. The lower bound allows a retracement through most of Monday's late-session breakout while remaining above the prior consolidation zone. The upper bound extends modestly beyond SPY's recent highs and corresponds to an S&P 500 move toward the upper 7,800s if lower oil and yields continue to support risk assets. The range is slightly asymmetric upward because the index has reclaimed resistance, but Monday's 1.55% SPY gain reduces the probability of another comparably large advance immediately. Sources: https://www.zacks.com/featured-articles/801/best-sp-500-etfs and https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-technicals-graphic-2026-09-21/
(4) Catalysts inside the window: Oil is the most important cross-asset catalyst. Reuters reported Brent falling about 2.1% toward $98 per barrel as Iran signaled possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia restored East-West Pipeline operations. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased to roughly 4.93%-4.95%, which is supportive for equity multiples. Investors are also watching Federal Reserve speakers and preparations for the Trump-Xi meeting, particularly for implications for AI and semiconductor policy. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-slightly-ahead-potential-us-iran-talks-2026-09-22/, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-09-22/ and https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/trump-xi-meet-investors-play-both-sides-ai-divide-2026-09-22/
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that much of the improvement from last week's selloff has already been captured in a rapid two-session rebound, while the Federal Reserve remains in a tightening cycle and the 10-year Treasury yield is still close to 5%. Technology leadership also remains disproportionately important to index performance, leaving SPY vulnerable if AI enthusiasm fades or geopolitical headlines push oil and yields higher again. A sustained retreat below roughly $769-$770 would weaken the mild bullish one-day interpretation, while continued acceptance above roughly $776-$778 would strengthen the case for another test of record territory. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-investors-focus-rate-path-ai-slowdown-after-fed-hike-2026-09-18/ and https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-pause-after-ai-rally-focus-mideast-tensions-2026-09-22/
(6) Confidence: 57% reflects a modest positive edge rather than a strong directional forecast. Lower oil, easing Treasury yields, positive breadth and continued AI optimism support MILD BULLISH over one day, but the market is already near record levels after Monday's sharp rebound. Confidence is also capped because my freshest verified SPY price is dated September 22 without an exact trade timestamp, so I cannot establish that the quote itself was printed at or after the 14:53 UTC baseline.
Claude Opus 5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: SwingTradeNotes (Substack) reported SPY finished Monday, September 21, 2026 around $773.52 after a near-vertical move into the close, just under a $774.33 level it flags. Vittarthi's recap put the S&P 500 up 1.43% that day to 7,760.13. For Tuesday, StockMarketWatch reported SPY nearly flat (+0.06%) shortly after the open, with IWM +1.04% and QQQ +0.43%. I have no intraday quote at the 14:53 UTC window start, so $774 is Monday's close plus the small early gain, an estimate rather than a live price. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: Monday was the S&P 500's best day since early August (Bloomberg) on falling oil and a 10-year yield near 4.97%. Tuesday shows rotation rather than follow-through: small caps lead while TheStreet Pro describes a semiconductor sell-off on calls from AI leaders for a frontier-development slowdown and Citigroup's neutral turn on chipmakers. That mix, heavy index weight in AI megacaps against broadening participation, argues for a flat-to-choppy index.
(3) Price range: A typical one-day SPY move of 0.8%-1.0% is about $6-$8. I set $767-$780, deliberately near-symmetric around $774 because I see no clear one-day edge. The lower bound sits below the $770.45 breakout area SwingTradeNotes highlights; the upper bound reaches the $779.37-$780 zone near the 52-week high of $779.37 (Investing.com).
(4) Catalysts in the window: SPYOptionsActionableLevels notes three FOMC speakers scheduled Tuesday, following the Fed's September 16 hike to 3.75%-4.00% (StockAnalysis). Schwab lists AutoZone and KB Home earnings on September 22, and Cintas, Paychex and General Mills on September 23. Flash PMIs and Meta Connect on September 23 and the Trump-Xi summit on September 24 (StockMarketWatch digest) are just beyond or at the edge of the window. Quarter-end window dressing may add noise (Schwab).
(5) Counter-argument: If broadening into small caps continues and semis stabilise, SPY could extend through $774.33 toward $777-$780 as SwingTradeNotes outlines. Conversely, hawkish Fed commentary or a deeper AI-capex scare could retrace Monday's vertical move toward $770 or below. A decisive break of either $770 or $777 would carry more signal than this neutral call.
(6) Confidence: 30% reflects an estimated anchor, genuinely offsetting forces (rotation into small caps versus pressure on heavily weighted chips) and Fed speakers inside the window.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Barchart reports SPY 765.16 +0.44% live Sep 22. FinancialContent PR Newswire reports current price 761.69 52W range 69.00-779.37, InyoRegister also 761.69 same range, Daily Courier 773.50, PR Newswire other 770.56 52W 69-776.85, other FinancialContent 754.05 price open 754.05 close 754.05 high 754.05 low 754.05, FinancialContent other 774.76 current. SPYQ 2X Long SPY 197.5513 open 197.38 high 197.5513 low 197.38 prev 191.7391 per Finnhub. NVDA $228.1475 +0.3375% open $226.85 high $229.6 low $226.5 prev $227.38 5D +8.15% per Finnhub Sep 22, GOOG $356.305 +1.549% open $353.24 high $359.98 low $352.95 prev $350.87 per Finnhub Sep 22, MSFT $498.78 -0.56% open $507.32 high $508.5 low $495.9 prev $501.61 per Finnhub Sep 22.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Rebound from Sep 19 low $757.97 per Stockwatch to $765.16 Sep 22 +1% intraday +0.44% per Barchart. SPYQ $197.55 vs $191.73 prev +3% shows leveraged buying. NVDA +0.33% and GOOG +1.54% early Sep 22 support large cap, MSFT -0.56% drag. Haruspex Daily Sep 22 bullish pressures 544 of 681 stocks bullish. BTC $85,896 Sep 22 +0.17% high $87,395 low $85,114 5D +11.82% per Finnhub. Regime mildly bullish intraday after $761.69 close Sep 18-19.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $765.16 Barchart current Sep 22. Using $761.69 PR Newswire current and $754.05 FinancialContent and $774.76 and $773.50 and $770.56 other prints. Day range from Sep 19 Stockwatch $757.97-$762 and Sep 22 inferred $760-$771. Daily vol ~0.8% ~$6. Lower $760 near $761.69 current and Sep 19 close $761.62 $0.37 below EMA12 per Block2Learn, upper $771 toward $774.76 and $773.50 prints +0.8% captures continuation above $765.16. Slight upside skew due to +0.44% and SPYQ +3% and 544 bullish per Haruspex.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 22 14:53 UTC 24h to Sep 23 14:53 covers Sep 22 close and Sep 23 open. Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, US-China negotiations, SOXL $146.12 +6.6% Sep 22 and NVDA $228.14 supports SPY tech 30%. No SPY dividend in window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: MSFT -0.56% open $507.32 high $508.5 low $495.9 could drag SPY to $760 below $761.69 if tech fades. Bull case: NVDA $228.14 high $229.6 and GOOG $356 high $359.98 and SOXL $146 high $146.96 could squeeze to $771 above $765.16. Invalidation: close below $757 or above $773 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 56% reflects live $765.16 +0.44% Barchart Sep 22 intraday, plus $761.69 PR Newswire and $761.69 InyoRegister and $754.05 FinancialContent same window, plus NVDA $228.14 and GOOG $356.30 and MSFT $498.78 Sep 22 Finnhub same day. Multiple same-day live sources after baseline 14:53 UTC. Labeling live because quotes Sep 22 intraday after window start.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: I retrieved live market data showing SPY trading near $773.28 as of 10:50 AM EDT on September 22, 2026. I also noted coverage from TheStreet and Zacks highlighting a massive tech-led market rebound and falling crude oil prices.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The equity market is in a constructive, tech-driven risk-on phase. Having digested the Federal Reserve's recent quarter-point rate hike, investors are finding relief in retreating 10-year Treasury yields (which dipped back below 5%) and falling Brent crude prices amid hopes for diplomatic progress in the Middle East.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I project a 24-hour range of $768.00-$780.00. SPY is currently consolidating its massive Monday gains around the $773 level. Immediate support is firmly established near $768.00, while the $780.00 upper bound accommodates a continuation of the rally if mega-cap tech momentum persists.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will be heavily influenced by headline risks from the ongoing UN General Assembly in New York, further developments in US-Iran diplomacy affecting oil prices, and broader institutional positioning following the recent tech sector surge.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk to this mildly bullish outlook is a sudden resurgence in energy prices or Treasury yields. If the 10-year yield breaks back above the critical 5% threshold due to sticky inflation fears, valuation pressures could trigger a swift tech selloff, pulling SPY below the $768.00 support.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 65%. While the combination of lower oil prices, stabilizing bond yields, and robust AI momentum provides a strong fundamental tailwind, the market is highly extended following Monday's massive rally, making near-term consolidation likely before a definitive breakout.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found: Live quotes from TECHi, Investing.com, TradeSmith and Barchart show SPY trading near $773.50-$774.00 on 22 September 2026 after a +1.55 percent gain on 21 September that closed at $773.50. Intraday range so far is roughly $773.25-$775.14 with modest volume.
(2) Market regime: Constructive consolidation near the upper end of the recent range and close to 52-week highs. The prior session’s broad equity advance led by technology leaves SPY in a mild uptrend on the daily chart while shorter time frames are largely range-bound.
(3) Price range: The $769-$778.50 band reflects typical one-day realized volatility of about 0.6-0.8 percent around the current level, allowing for a modest pullback toward the $769-$770 zone or a continuation test of the $775-$778 area.
(4) Catalysts: No major scheduled macroeconomic releases identified inside the next 24 hours; price action is expected to track residual momentum from the prior tech-led rally and overall risk sentiment.
(5) Counter-argument: A decisive break below $770 on expanding volume would signal fading momentum and open the door to a deeper retracement toward the mid-760s, invalidating the mild constructive bias.
(6) Confidence: 45 percent reflects the short one-day horizon, limited directional catalysts, and the neutral-to-mildly-positive mixed signals across time frames after a strong prior session.
Claude Sonnet 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: SPY closed at $773.50 on Sept 21, up 1.55%, with the S&P 500 at 7,764.70, within 0.4% of its record close (CMoney, Benzinga, Saxo). VIX fell to 14.69, its lowest since Sept 3 (MarketWatch). The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.95% (TradingEconomics, Yonhap Infomax). Brent crude is around $100 but pulled back from session highs (Algerian Radio, VOV).
(2) Market regime: A low-volatility bull market with a hawkish Fed overlay. The FOMC hiked rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16 (JPMorgan, Investing.com). Market breadth is deteriorating: more S&P 500 constituents hit 52-week lows than highs on Sept 21, a divergence last seen in 1999 (SentimenTrader via Edgen). Less than 30% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average (Entrust via CMoney).
(3) Price range: SPY sits just below the $775 resistance zone that has capped two weeks of rallies (KuCoin, eToro). Support is at $767-770, with stronger structural support at $760-762 (Investing.com, KuCoin). With VIX at 14.69, a one-day expected move implies roughly $768-$781. I have given slightly more room above than below because momentum and options positioning (dealer gamma positive, call wall at $785) lean supportive for a single session.
(4) Catalysts: No major economic data scheduled for Sept 22. Fed speakers could add hawkish commentary following the Sept 16 hike. Oil price action remains a wildcard given Middle East tensions and the Treasury's announced shutdown of Iranian airlines. Minor earnings (AutoZone, KB Home, Thor Industries) are unlikely to move the index.
(5) Counter-argument: The breadth divergence and hawkish Fed are genuine warnings. If SPY loses $767, sellers could press toward $761 and the bearish triple-witching pattern becomes relevant (Investing.com). A sustained break above $775 would invalidate the near-term cautious tilt and open $780-$785.
(6) Confidence: 55% - moderate. The price momentum is strong but internal breadth is poor, making a one-day directional call genuinely uncertain. I lean neutral on the session and slightly cautious over the coming week.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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