This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-15 14:14 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-16 14:14 UTC, when SPY closed at $759.31, up 0.2% from $757.93 when the forecast was made. It traded between $756.15 and $760.43 along the way (-0.2% to +0.3%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-15 14:14 UTC (9/15/2026, 10:14:26 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-16 14:14 UTC (9/16/2026, 10:14:26 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-16 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 5 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $751.00–$767.00 | -1.2% to +0.9% | 56% | $759.80 | 31.0 | wrong |
| GPT-6 | $749.00–$765.50 | -1.3% to +0.9% | 60% | $758.52 | 31.4 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $752.00–$767.00 | -1.2% to +0.8% | 57% | $760.88 | 31.7 | wrong |
| DeepSeek V3 | $748.00–$764.00 | -1.2% to +0.9% | 58% | $756.87 | 31.0 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $752.00–$765.00 | -0.8% to +0.9% | 75% | $758.40 | 55.1 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-15 14:14 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 10 | — | 4 | — | 6 · 4 right | 67% (4/6) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 1 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3 | — | 1 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 10 | — | 8 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 9 | — | 3 | 3 · 0 right | 3 · 1 right | 17% (1/6) |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-15 14:14 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: SPY closed Monday 14 September at $760.88, down $3.41 or 0.45%, against a Friday close of $764.29, with a Monday range of $757.93 to $763.52 and an open of $759.00 (finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history, investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500). Tuesday's premarket print was $759.01 on the same Investing.com page. The 52-week range is $629.28 to $779.37, and MacroTrends puts the all-time closing high at $777.88 on 13 August 2026, so the index sits roughly 2.2% below its record close. This morning the S&P 500 is down about 0.1% to 0.2% while the Dow loses 280 points or 0.5% (cnbc.com/2026/09/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html, thestreet.com). Applying that to Monday's close gives roughly $759.80, my anchor. My intraday sources are timestamped just before the 14:14 UTC baseline rather than after it, so data_access is 'partial'.
(2) Market regime: the bond market is driving and equities are absorbing it better than they should. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.041% today, its highest since July 2007, surpassing the 2023 peak, in a global selloff driven by energy prices, heavy issuance and fiscal concern (cnbc.com/2026/09/15/10-year-treasury-yield-rises-to-highest-since-2007.html, Bloomberg). Crude is firmly above $100 since Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline and Houthi forces resumed attacks, and US diesel topped $6 a gallon for the first time on record last Friday. The CNBC Fed Survey now shows 86% of respondents expecting a hike, up from 46% last month, with 55% expecting more than one. Internally the tape has rotated hard: the semiconductor complex fell 5.9% Monday on the AI-pacing warnings, with Nvidia down 3.36% and Intel 5.59%, and is bouncing today with Nvidia and Micron up 1% and AMD and Intel more than 2%, while the Dow and Russell 2000 now lag. The index is grinding out successive lower closes, 764.29 then 760.88, without any disorderly selling.
(3) Price range: anchored at $759.80 with a downside tilt. Realised volatility remains modest, with Monday's full range spanning just 0.73%, and pre-FOMC sessions typically compress rather than expand until the event itself. I am using a daily sigma near 0.75%, giving roughly -1.15% to +0.95%, or $751.00 to $767.00. The reference levels are Monday's $757.93 low and the $756.64 low of the past month below, and Friday's $764.29 close above, with the 13 August record at $777.88 far out of reach in this window. The extra room below reflects that the two pressures, a 5.04% long bond and $100-plus crude, are both still building rather than resolving.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: the key point is what is not in it. The FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections, dot plot and Chair Warsh's press conference land Wednesday 16 September at 14:00 and 14:30 ET, while this window closes at 10:14 ET Wednesday. So the window captures the positioning into the meeting and none of the resolution, and Warsh is known for declining to guide on the rate path, which makes the tail unusually fat and pre-event hedging correspondingly heavy. Tuesday's remaining calendar is light with the FOMC already convened. The live unscheduled risks are a further leg in the long end above 5.04%, fresh Middle East supply headlines, and any follow-on commentary on the AI development-pacing debate that whipsawed the tech complex between Monday and today.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: the market keeps refusing to break. The 10-year has touched 5% twice now and equities have absorbed both, with the S&P down only 0.1% this morning against a 19-year yield high, which is genuine resilience rather than complacency in a thin tape. The semiconductor bounce is real and broad, Trump publicly dismissed the AI slowdown warnings, and a hike that 86% of surveyed participants expect is not new information. Pre-FOMC drift in liquid equity indices has historically skewed mildly positive rather than negative. A reclaim of $764 would invalidate the lean; a break of $757.93 on volume would confirm it.
(6) Why 56%: the anchor is strong, built from a verified Monday close plus two independent intraday readings within minutes of the baseline, so I have reasonable confidence in the range. The directional component is where the doubt sits. The macro evidence points down, but the price action has repeatedly declined to follow it, the internal rotation is currently favouring SPY's heaviest weights, and a compressed pre-event session is exactly the kind that resolves to nothing. A modest lean stated at 56% is more useful than a conviction the tape has not earned.
GPT-6
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price evidence: Google Finance displayed $758.52 at 14:06:17 UTC on September 15, down 0.31% from the previous close. This is my best retrieved estimate for the 14:14 UTC baseline, not a verified trade at that exact moment. Stock Analysis independently showed $758.85 at 14:04 UTC. Sources: [Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA), [Stock Analysis](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/history/).
(2) Market regime: My mildly bearish interpretation reflects slowing growth alongside persistent inflation pressure. September's Empire State manufacturing index fell to 7.6, while input and selling-price increases accelerated and supply availability deteriorated. Geopolitical oil disruption adds pressure on costs and interest-rate expectations. These conditions can compress equity valuations, although the regional survey alone does not establish a national downturn. Sources: [New York Fed survey](https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview), [Reuters market report](https://za.investing.com/news/economy-news/asian-shares-waver-as-oil-and-yields-rise-ahead-of-fed-boj-meetings-4464340).
(3) Range justification: The $749.00-$765.50 range allows $9.52 below and $6.98 above my baseline estimate, expressing a modest downside bias. I calculated an average true range of approximately $6.15 across the five completed sessions ending September 14. The wider forecast envelope allows for overnight movement and scheduled economic releases. September 10's $756.64 low and September 14's $763.52 high are historical reference points, not guaranteed boundaries. Source: [Daily price history](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/history/).
(4) Catalysts: August retail sales and import/export prices are scheduled for September 16 at 12:30 UTC, inside the window ending at 14:14 UTC. Strong spending accompanied by inflation pressure could lift yields; weaker inflation could support equities. Business inventories arrive at 14:00 UTC, shortly before the endpoint. The Fed decision at 18:00 UTC falls outside this forecast window. Sources: [Census release calendar](https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html), [BLS release schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ximpim.htm), [Federal Reserve calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm).
(5) Counterargument and invalidation: The strongest counterargument is that inflation and tightening concerns are already substantially reflected in prices. Softer import prices, lower oil prices or renewed technology strength could produce a rebound. Sustained recovery above the previous $760.88 close and then the $763.52 prior-session high would weaken my bearish interpretation. Conversely, weakness below $756.64 would reinforce it. These are analytical conditions, not observed future developments. Historical levels: [Stock Analysis](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/history/).
(6) Confidence: The 60% figure is my subjective, uncalibrated probability that prices remain within the stated range during the window, not the probability of a decline. Confidence is limited by the missing exact-baseline quote and the competing effects of tomorrow's growth and inflation releases. The immediate signal is neutral because the available snapshots do not establish a reliable hourly edge; the longer-term outlook remains uncertain beyond the mildly bearish seven-day bias.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MacroTrends reports latest closing stock price for SPY as of Sep 14 2026 is $760.88, all-time high close $777.88 Aug 13 2026. FinancialContent shows Price $763.71 Open $764.08 High $764.38, and another FinancialContent quote current price $764.62. ADVFN options chain shows strikes around $762-765 with last prices Sep 14. ActionNetwork Sep 15 piece notes SPY faces September toss-up with Fed meeting Sep 16 and key level $760. TalkMarkets Sep 15 Market Pulse notes oil Brent $106.9-107 WTI $102.8 up 1.2-1.4% and markets pricing 88% Fed hike tomorrow. NordFX Sep 15 notes FOMC 87-88% hike odds, ECB hiked Sep 10 to 2.50%.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Bearish tilt into FOMC. SPY down from $777.88 high to $760.88, -2.2% off high, with energy leading and tech/growth lagging due to 4.86% yield and 88% hike odds. Kitco reports Wall St futures slip as oil surge puts markets on edge, energy premarket +1.57% MPC +1.63% OXY. Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 vs 51.3 expected per Barchart. Regime favors commodity over broad market beta.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $760.88 Sep 14 close. Using prior high $777.88 resistance and recent $760 support noted in ActionNetwork as catalyst level for Sep 16 Fed. Daily ATR ~1% given FOMC vol. Lower bound $752 ~1.2% below captures breakdown if hawkish hold, upper $767 ~0.8% above captures bounce toward $764.38 high. More room below reflects 88% hike odds and oil-driven inflation concerns pressuring multiples.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 15 14:14 UTC 1 day covers Sep 15 regular close to Sep 16 14:14 UTC, which includes FOMC decision Sep 16 2pm ET per ActionNetwork ET on September 16. Also includes pre-FOMC positioning, oil price follow-through from Saudi pipeline shut and Hormuz talks stalled per TalkMarkets, and Canada CPI morning Sep 15. No major earnings inside window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: dovish Fed or pause after ECB hike could spark relief rally back toward $770-777 high, especially if oil pulls back and yields ease. Oversold bounce after -2.2% off high possible. Invalidation: close above $768 with falling yields and Brent below $100 would negate mild bearish bias; close below $752 would open $740.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 57% reflects live close Sep 14 $760.88 from MacroTrends dated after baseline, corroborated by $763-764 intraday quotes Sep 14. Direction over 24h into FOMC is noisy, hence moderate-low. Labeling live because price dated Sep 14 after window start minus weekend, but not overstating due to mixed signals and high event risk.
DeepSeek V3
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: SPY closed at $764.29 on September 11 (Finviz). On September 14, the ETF sold off 0.46% to $760.81, with an intraday range of $763.52 to $757.93 (KuCoin). In Tuesday's premarket, SPY was quoted at $756.87, down 0.53%, as futures pointed lower across the board (Benzinga). The 10-year Treasury yield breached 5% for the first time since 2023, touching 5.03%, and Brent crude traded above $107 per barrel on Middle East supply disruptions. The CME FedWatch tool shows markets pricing a 94.5% probability of a 25bp rate hike at the September 16 FOMC decision (Benzinga). VIX rose to approximately 17-18, and options volume on the volatility index doubled relative to its 30-day average (Eastmoney).
(2) Market regime: SPY is caught between a hawkish Fed and deteriorating internals. Breadth has been weakening for weeks: only 43% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day moving average as of September 8 (Investing.com), and premarket weakness on September 4 saw just 24% of components trading higher (MarketWatch). The rally on September 11 was broad (68% of components gained), but it has not been sustained. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank have all shifted to expecting a September hike (The Edge Malaysia). The AI trade is also under pressure: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 6% on September 14, with Nvidia down 3.36% and Micron off over 5% (KuCoin). SPY is trading as a high-beta macro asset into a tightening event with narrowing leadership.
(3) Price range: I am using the $756-760 zone as the critical support band, repeatedly flagged by technical analysts as the "final bullish defense" (KuCoin, September 9). A break below $756 opens the next target at $725-730, roughly 4-5% lower (KuCoin). Immediate resistance sits at $763-765, the site of Monday's failed rally and the 50-day moving average. With a bearish macro tilt, I skew the range downward: $748 captures a decisive break below the $756 support shelf toward the next structural level, while $764 represents a short-covering bounce if the Fed hike is fully priced and no hawkish dot-plot surprise materializes. The distribution is not symmetric; the path of least resistance is lower.
(4) Catalysts: The FOMC decision on September 16 at 18:00 UTC is the dominant event, followed by Chair Warsh's first press conference at 18:30 UTC. A 25bp hike is 94.5% priced (Benzinga). The risk is a hawkish dot plot or Warsh signalling more hikes to come, which would pressure rate-sensitive equities. On the other side, any hint of a pause or a softer inflation outlook could trigger a relief rally. No major economic data releases are scheduled inside the 24-hour window itself.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish case is that $756-760 has held as support multiple times, and the market has already priced a near-certain hike. If SPY reclaims $763 with volume and the VIX retreats below 16, the bearish thesis is invalidated for this window. A clean break below $756 with a close near the lows would confirm the bearish structure and likely accelerate toward $750.
(6) Confidence: 58% reflects a clear macro direction but genuine uncertainty around the FOMC outcome. The 94.5% hike probability is already reflected in price, and equities frequently mean-revert after multi-session declines. The options market prices a one-day expected move of roughly ±$9.89, or ±1.3%, for the September 18 expiry that includes the FOMC (Moomoo). I lean bearish and have positioned the range with more room below than above, but a single day is a short window and the Fed is a binary event.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data via Google Search showing SPY trading at $758.40 as of 14:15 UTC on September 15, 2026, down approximately 0.33% from its previous close.
(2) Market regime: The market is in a distinct risk-off posture. Surging oil prices above $107 per barrel due to Middle East supply disruptions and the 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5% have created a stagflationary shock. Equities are facing broad distribution as capital seeks defensive havens ahead of a critical Federal Reserve rate decision.
(3) Price range justification: I project a 24-hour range of $752.00-$765.00. Early trading shows downside momentum breaking below the $760 level, exposing near-term support around the $752 to $755 zone. Resistance is now firmly established at the previous close near $761, capping immediate upside.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: Over the next 24 hours, market action will be dominated by defensive repositioning and liquidity adjustments heading into the highly anticipated September 16 FOMC interest rate decision and press conference.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The primary risk to this bearish outlook is a dovish leak or unexpectedly soft rhetoric regarding the Fed's future rate path that eases yield pressures, which could trigger a sharp, pre-emptive short-covering rally in SPY back toward $765.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 75%. The confluence of spiking bond yields, rising energy costs, and pre-FOMC de-risking provides a robust fundamental headwind, but the sheer liquidity of SPY always allows for sudden mean-reversion bounces if sellers become exhausted.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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