This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-08-31 03:30 UTC. The window closed 2026-08-31 20:00 UTC, when SPY closed at $766.95, down 0.3% from $769.38 when the forecast was made. It traded between $764.73 and $768.00 along the way (-0.6% to -0.2%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-08-31 03:30 UTC (8/30/2026, 11:30:55 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-08-31 20:00 UTC (8/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-08-31 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 16.48 elapsed hours. Timing: Weekend / holiday. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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3 of the 5 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $760.00–$773.50 | -1.2% to +0.5% | 68% | $769.35 | 83.4 | right |
| Gemini — Pro | $763.50–$775.00 | -0.8% to +0.7% | 75% | $769.35 | 55.3 | no call |
| Grok | $762.00–$776.50 | -1.0% to +0.9% | 48% | $769.35 | 53.8 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $759.00–$785.00 | -1.8% to +1.5% | 52% | $773.10 | 79.8 | right |
| Claude — Opus | $759.00–$775.50 | -1.3% to +0.8% | 52% | $769.35 | 81.0 | right |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-08-31 03:30 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| DeepSeek | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude — Opus | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Gemini — Pro | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Grok | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-08-31 03:30 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: The latest completed SPY session, August 28, closed at $769.35 after trading between $768.31 and $775.30, down 0.23%. The S&P 500 itself closed at 7,711.76, down 0.25%, although it still gained about 0.5% for the week. SPY was also only about 1.3% below its 52-week high of $779.37. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: Short-term momentum has weakened after the August 13 high of $777.88 and August 20 low of $762.60, with SPY subsequently recovering toward $771 before slipping again. The August 28 rejection from $775.30 and close near the lower portion of the daily range favors mild downside pressure for the next session, although the broader trend remains bullish because SPY is still near its record area and has risen 5.47% over the preceding 30 days. ([ChartExchange][2])
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $760.00-$773.50. The lower bound allows for a modest continuation of the recent pullback and a retest of the $762-$763 area established August 20 and August 24; the upper bound allows a recovery back through the $771-$772 area without requiring a new high. The latest daily ranges have generally been around $4-$7, so the proposed envelope allows for somewhat elevated volatility following the Fed-driven repricing. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
(4) Catalysts: The immediate macro catalyst is the market's reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole message. Reuters reports that his emphasis on inflation control increased September rate-hike expectations, while overnight Monday reports put the probability around 57%; U.S. stock futures were lower ahead of the new week. Investors are also looking toward Friday's August employment report, with consensus expectations for roughly 50,000-58,000 payroll additions and 4.1% unemployment. These catalysts are outside the one-day window except insofar as positioning begins immediately, making Monday's session particularly sensitive to rates, oil and geopolitical headlines. ([Reuters][3])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is the underlying market trend. SPY remains close to its 52-week high, approximately 69% of S&P 500 constituents were reported above their 200-day moving averages, and strong AI-related earnings have continued to support the index despite weakness in many individual stocks. A decline in Treasury yields or a reversal of the hawkish interpretation of Warsh's comments could therefore produce a rapid rebound toward $773-$775. The bearish view would be weakened substantially if SPY quickly recovers the August 28 high of $775.30. ([MarketWatch][4])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 68% because the short-term evidence is moderately aligned: Friday's decline, the rejection near $775, higher rate-hike expectations, lower overnight futures and elevated geopolitical/inflation risks all lean against Monday upside. However, this is deliberately not a high-confidence forecast because SPY's larger trend remains strong and the current-price field necessarily uses the latest completed SPY quote of $769.35 rather than a Sunday-night executable ETF quote; therefore the data-access classification is partial rather than live. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
Gemini — Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com confirms SPY closed at $769.35 on Friday, August 28, 2026, pulling back slightly by 0.23%. The session saw an intraday high of $775.30 before fading into the close on moderate volume of 36.7 million shares.
(2) The broader market regime is currently characterized by high-level consolidation. Following a dip to the low $760s earlier in the month, the index ETF has settled into a sideways chop, attempting to build a base just below its mid-August highs in the $777 range.
(3) The price range of $763.50-$775.00 applies recent daily volatility profiles (roughly 1% average true range) to Friday's close. The upper bound aligns with the immediate resistance established by Friday's intraday high, while the lower bound leaves room for a retest of structural support levels formed in late August.
(4) Inside this 24-hour window, the primary catalyst will be month-end portfolio rebalancing flows as institutional managers adjust their books for Monday, August 31. No major macroeconomic data prints or FOMC rate decisions are scheduled to hit the wire.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a tight range-bound session is the potential for unexpected weekend news risk. Because this forecast window bridges a weekend, any overnight macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks could cause Monday's open to gap aggressively past immediate technical boundaries.
(6) My confidence is 75%. Over a single session with no major macroeconomic catalyst on the calendar, broad index ETFs like SPY typically respect near-term technical levels and recent average true ranges, making extreme directional breaks less likely.
Grok
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 28 Aug 2026 regular close was $769.35 (down 0.23% from $771.10 prior close), day range $768.31-$775.30, volume ~36.7M, per CNBC, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Motley Fool, GuruFocus and Zacks quotes dated 28-30 Aug. After-hours held near $769.3x. Recent closes: 27 Aug $771.10, 26 Aug $766.08. 52-week range $629.28-$779.37 (high on 13 Aug). ATR ~$6.32 and 30-day historical volatility ~11% from AlphaQuery and WallStreetNumbers data as of 28 Aug.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Broad equity index ETF trading near recent highs after a strong YTD advance (~13-14%), with mild consolidation. Leadership concentrated in AI/mega-cap tech. Friday’s modest decline followed hawkish Jackson Hole remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing inflation still above target and possible need for further rate hikes, lifting September hike odds (Reuters, WSJ, TipRanks 28-30 Aug). Overall regime remains constructive but sensitive to policy and labor data.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $769.35 Friday close. Recent daily true ranges and ATR of ~$6.3 imply a typical 1-day swing of roughly ±0.8-1%. Lower bound near $762 reflects extension of the Friday low plus gap risk into the Monday open; upper bound near $776.50 covers the Friday high and recent resistance around the mid-770s. Range is modestly wider on the downside given the post-Warsh tone and absence of positive catalysts on Monday.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major U.S. economic releases on Monday 31 Aug (per Yahoo Finance and FedRateCalc calendars). Focus remains on the upcoming September 4 jobs report and September FOMC; weekend news flow or overseas data could still influence the open, but nothing company- or index-specific is scheduled for the 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A strong overnight risk-on move or soft overseas data could push SPY back toward the $775-$779 area and invalidate neutral short-term bias; conversely, further hawkish Fed commentary or weak futures could extend the pullback below $762. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the forecast.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Single-session index moves are frequently noise-dominated; data is live through Friday close but pre-Monday open, and the post-Jackson Hole rate-hike repricing adds modest uncertainty without a clear directional catalyst for the immediate window. Confidence stays moderate given low realized volatility relative to history and the constructive longer-term trend.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Current price sourced from Investing.com real-time data as of 2026-08-31 pre-market / early session: $773.10 (prior close), with after-hours trading at $773.96 (+0.11%). Friday Aug 28 close was $769.41, while Aug 7 close was $773.26. The S&P 500 index closed Aug 28 at 7,711.76, remaining within 1.4% of its Aug 13 record high of 7,816.70. Multiple sources converge on $769-$773 as the anchor, with SPY trading near the 50-day moving average of ~$754 and well above the 200-day average of ~$707.
(2) Current market regime as I read it: The market is digesting hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on Aug 28, where he signaled persistent inflation pressures and that the central bank still has 'more work to do'. Futures markets reacted by pricing in a 57.3% probability of a 25bp rate hike at the Sept 19 meeting, up from 35.8% previously. SPY and QQQ fell 0.23% and 0.65% respectively following the speech. The S&P 500 has rallied 12.65% year-to-date but is showing hesitation near all-time highs. Volatility is elevated but not extreme, with options pricing implied moves around ±1.1% ($760.89-$777.81).
(3) Price range justification: Upper bound $785.00 - this sits above the 52-week high of $776.85 and represents a ~1.5% move from current levels, consistent with the options-implied 1-day range of $760.89-$777.81 extended slightly for volatility. A break above $776.85 would signal a continuation of the uptrend and test of record highs. Lower bound $759.00 - this is ~1.8% below current and represents the level where the 50-day moving average (~$754) plus a small buffer sits; a break below $760 would signal technical weakness and potential retracement toward the 50-day MA. I am using a 1-day realized volatility estimate of ~1.0-1.5% based on recent daily ranges ($767.16-$772.36 on Aug 28) and the options-implied vol of ±1.1%. The range is slightly asymmetric: more room above ($11.90) than below ($14.10), reflecting the mild bearish 1-day view given the post-Warsh digestion phase.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Monday Aug 31 itself has no major economic releases. However, the week ahead is packed: earnings from Dell (DELL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Lululemon (LULU), and Snowflake are due. The critical catalyst is the August jobs report on Friday Sept 4, with economists expecting payrolls to climb by 45,000-58,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%. This follows July's surprise 23,000 job decline. Broadcom earnings are also due this week. These events are outside the 1-day window but may create anticipatory positioning that could dampen or amplify moves on Monday.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and what would invalidate: The strongest counter-argument is that the Aug 28 sell-off was an overreaction to Warsh's comments, and dip-buyers may step in at these levels given the still-strong fundamental backdrop (record highs just weeks ago, 12.65% YTD gains). If SPY holds above $770 and reclaims the $773.40 level noted by technicians as a key breakout point, my mild bearish 1-day view would be invalidated. Conversely, if pre-market or early session news (e.g., Middle East tensions or further hawkish Fed commentary) triggers a break below $767 (Friday's low), the downside could accelerate toward $759.
(6) Why confidence is 52%: This is a 1-day forecast in a market that is digesting a major Fed speech with no immediate catalyst on the calendar for Monday. The options-implied range of ±1.1% suggests the market itself sees limited directional conviction over the next 24 hours. The bullish case (dip-buying, proximity to record highs) and bearish case (hawkish Fed repricing, valuation concerns) are roughly balanced. 52% reflects modest conviction in mild downside given the post-Warsh digestion and the fact that SPY closed Friday below the $770 level that some technicians view as key support. I am not confident enough to call it BEARISH, hence MILD BEARISH for the 1-day signal, with neutral readings on shorter timeframes where noise dominates.
Claude — Opus
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The window opens 2026-08-31 03:30 UTC - 11:30 PM ET Sunday - so the last regular-session print is Friday's close. StockAnalysis.com quotes SPY at $769.35 as of Aug 28, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, down $1.75 (-0.23%) from a $771.10 previous close, on 36.7M shares, with a day range of $768.31-$775.30 and a 52-week range of $629.28-$779.37; the after-hours print at 8:00 PM EDT was $769.33, essentially unchanged. TheStreet's Aug 28 wrap gives the index side: S&P 500 7,711.71 (-0.25%), Dow 53,559.99 (-0.02%), Nasdaq 26,402.42 (-0.52%), Russell 2000 2,974.72 (-1.31%), 10-year Treasury 4.726% (+5.4bp), 30-year 5.213%. Charles Schwab's Aug 28 pre-open note had the S&P up 0.72% at 9:13 a.m. ET with VIX at 14.45 and WTI $82.68 - so Friday was a full intraday reversal from roughly +0.7% to a close near the session low, which is the single most informative bar on the chart. Overnight into the window, Investing.com (Aug 30, 8:16 PM ET) reports US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island by the Strait of Hormuz after IRGC forces were seen preparing to fire rockets carrying sea mines; Iran fired missiles at US forces in Jordan, nearly all intercepted. Brent rose 1.7% to $89.62 and WTI 1.6% to $84.69, with Hormuz shipping traffic down to a handful of vessels per day. S&P 500 futures were -0.24% and Dow futures -0.14% at that time. Trading Economics' Aug 31 page and FX.co both confirm futures slipped Monday, with August finishing green (S&P +2.96%, Dow +2.05%, Nasdaq +4.05% for the month per FX.co).
(2) Market regime: This is a late-cycle index near its highs absorbing two simultaneous shocks it had not been priced for. The larger one is monetary: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks on Aug 28 were read as hawkish - he said the economy "appears to have strengthened," called himself "committed to a discipline, not to a decision," and declined to endorse the view that underlying inflation trends have improved (TheStreet). FX.co and Trading Economics both report the takeaway as reinforcing expectations for a September rate *increase*, with policy held at 3.5%-3.75% since December against inflation running above 3% (Schwab). A market repricing toward a hike rather than a cut is a different regime from the one that carried SPY from $629 to $779, and the bond market confirmed it: 10s +5.4bp on the day, 30s at 5.21%. The second shock is geopolitical - Iran/Hormuz has been a recurring drag all month (CNBC, Aug 16: "Dow loses more than 270 points as oil prices pressure stocks amid rising Iran tensions") and this weekend escalated it from tension to kinetic action astride a chokepoint carrying roughly a fifth of world oil. Underneath, breadth is deteriorating faster than the headline: Russell 2000 -1.31% against S&P -0.25% is the classic signature of rate-sensitive and lower-quality names being sold while index-level megacap flows hold the tape up. Positioning is complacent - VIX 14.45 leaves little cushion priced for either shock.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $769.35. VIX at 14.45 implies a roughly 0.90% one-day standard deviation, about $7 on SPY. I have set the band at $759.00 to $775.50 - that is -1.35% down and +0.80% up, so meaningfully more room below than above, deliberately. The upper bound sits just above Friday's high of $775.30, which is the level the market rejected from once already, and short of the 52-week high at $779.37. The lower bound sits about 1.5 standard deviations down, wider than a symmetric envelope because the identifiable risks in this window - a Hormuz headline, an oil spike, a further yield backup - are one-directional for equities, while the identifiable upside is only the absence of bad news. Friday's low at $768.31 is the first reference below and is already within a few tenths of a percent of the anchor; below that there is no recent shelf until the mid-$750s.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Monday Aug 31 carries no first-tier scheduled US release - Schwab's calendar puts ISM Manufacturing, construction spending and JOLTS on Sept 1, ADP and the Beige Book on Sept 2, and August nonfarm payrolls on Sept 4, all outside this window. What the window does carry is mechanical and headline risk. It is the final trading day of the month, and month-end rebalancing after a +2.96% equity month against a bond market that sold off tends to run against equities at the margin. The live variable is Iran: with US forces having struck launchers positioned to mine Hormuz and Iran having already retaliated at US positions in Jordan, further headlines can arrive at any hour and transmit to equities through crude. Any Fed speaker walking Warsh's remarks forward or back would also matter, given the market is now debating a hike rather than a cut.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest case against this call is that the market has repeatedly refused to break on exactly these inputs. Al Jazeera on Aug 4 had US stocks near a record high with oil falling on Iran talks; CNBC on Aug 9 had the S&P closing little changed as oil rose on Iran uncertainty. This tape has absorbed Iran headlines for a month and still finished August up nearly 3%, and the futures reaction to an actual military strike was a mere -0.24% - a shrug, not a flinch. SPY is only 1.3% below its 52-week high, the dip-buying reflex has been reliable all year, VIX is at 14 rather than spiking, and a modest overnight gap into a month-end session frequently gets bought back by the close. My call is invalidated by SPY reclaiming and holding above Friday's $775.30 high, which would say the reversal bar was noise and the Warsh repricing was a one-day event; it is also invalidated by any de-escalation headline from the Gulf that takes crude back down, since the oil channel is doing much of the work in my reasoning. Conversely a break of $768.31 on expanding volume would confirm the Friday reversal rather than refute it.
(6) Confidence: 52%. That is above where I normally sit on a one-day index call, because the evidence here is unusually concrete rather than inferred - futures were already lower at the window start, the overnight catalyst is a completed event and not a forecast, the Friday bar is a clean intraday reversal closing near its low, breadth diverged hard, and the rate narrative shifted direction at Jackson Hole. It is not higher than 52% because none of that is large in magnitude: a quarter-percent futures decline and a 1.7% oil move are ordinary numbers, single-day index direction is dominated by flow I cannot observe, and this specific market has spent a month proving it will fade Iran risk. I would rather state a modest tilt honestly than dress up a 0.24% futures print as conviction. My confidence in the range holding is considerably higher than my confidence in the direction - at VIX 14, a band of roughly -1.35% to +0.80% should contain the session unless Hormuz escalates materially inside it.
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