This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-10-02 15:04 UTC. The window closed 2026-10-05 15:04 UTC, when NVDA closed at $237.28, up 0.3% from $236.56 when the forecast was made. It traded between $233.60 and $237.86 along the way (-1.3% to +0.5%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-10-02 15:04 UTC (10/2/2026, 11:04:15 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-10-05 15:04 UTC (10/5/2026, 11:04:15 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-10-05 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 72 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 7 models called a direction, and 4 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro | $233.50–$239.50 | -1.3% to +1.2% | 68% | $236.58 | 54.3 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $232.50–$241.00 | -1.7% to +1.9% | 58% | $236.52 | 53.3 | no call |
| Perplexity | $232.50–$239.50 | -1.2% to +1.8% | 58% | $235.24 | 81.4 | right |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $232.00–$243.00 | -1.9% to +2.7% | 67% | $236.56 | 82.0 | right |
| claude-opus-5-5 | $230.50–$244.50 | -3.0% to +2.8% | 55% | $237.75 | 30.4 | wrong |
| Grok 4 | $230.00–$242.00 | -2.2% to +2.9% | 42% | $235.20 | 79.2 | right |
| DeepSeek | $233.00–$242.00 | -1.5% to +2.3% | 55% | $236.50 | 81.1 | right |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-10-02 15:04 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | — | 1 | 8 · 6 right | 1 · 0 right | 67% (6/9) |
| Perplexity | 7 | — | 0 | 4 · 3 right | 3 · 1 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 13 | — | 3 | 5 · 3 right | 5 · 2 right | 50% (5/10) |
| DeepSeek | 12 | — | 1 | 10 · 5 right | 1 · 0 right | 45% (5/11) |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 13 | — | 5 | 6 · 2 right | 2 · 1 right | 38% (3/8) |
| claude-opus-5-5 | 9 | — | 3 | 3 · 2 right | 3 · 0 right | 33% (2/6) |
| Grok 4 | 11 | — | 6 | 3 · 1 right | 2 · 0 right | 20% (1/5) |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 4 | — | 2 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| GPT-6 | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/2) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-10-02 15:04 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Gemini 3 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Real-time financial feeds show NVDA trading at $236.58 as of 11:05 AM EDT (15:05 UTC) on October 2, 2026, up +2.48% from the previous session close of $230.86.
(2) The immediate market regime is driven by robust semiconductor momentum, with NVDA breaking out past $235 and printing an intraday high near its 52-week peak of $237.88 on elevated morning volume.
(3) Using an estimated intraday volatility range of ~2.5% over the 1-day forecast period, key support is established near the morning low of $234.53 and resistance sits around the 52-week high of $237.88-$239.50.
(4) Primary short-term drivers include broader tech sector ETF rebalancing and market response to recent macroeconomic interest rate expectations, with no immediate earnings shock expected within the next 24 hours.
(5) The key counter-argument is potential profit-taking following a test of the 52-week high ($237.88), which would invalidate the short-term bullish thesis if price drops below $234.00.
(6) Confidence is set at 68% due to high prevailing liquidity and steady buying pressure, though ultra-short-term technical resistance near record highs adds moderate variance.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Retrieved live quote as of Oct 2 2026 - Current Price $236.52, Open $236.055, High $237.88, Low $234.53, Previous Close $230.86, +2.45% on day from Finnhub data, confirmed by LiteFinance at $236.92 +2.61% 24h and live update trending +2.26% at 08:32 EDT Oct 2. Morgan Stanley reinstated NVDA as Top Pick in semiconductors on Oct 2 with $300 target and Overweight after meetings with Jensen Huang. 52-week range context: low $164.27 high $236.54 - now testing all-time high level $236.37 from May 14 2026 noted in LiteFinance.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term momentum regime is bullish breakout attempt. Price opened above prior close at $230.86 and pushed to $237.88 intraday, above 50-day $218.20 and 200-day $207.30, indicating trend intact. YTD return +26.82% and 6-month +35.62% from Finnhub supports institutional accumulation story reinforced by 13F filings showing JLB & Associates +34.1% position increase. Volatility regime elevated given ATH retest - typical intraday range $3-4 already observed today.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $236.52 current. Using observed true range today $234.53-$237.88 (3.35) and 5-day return 3.34%, 1-day expected move ~1.8% = ~$4.3. Upside skew due to Top Pick catalyst and ATH momentum: resistance at $238.00-$240.50 (psychological extension beyond $236.54 ATH), support at $232.50 (intraday VWAP area and prior resistance turned support) then $230.86 previous close. Range $232.50-$241.00 gives $4.02 downside, $4.48 upside from $236.52, reflecting mild bullish asymmetry.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings inside 1-day window - next earnings estimated Nov 18 2026 and also listed as Nov 26 est / Nov 25 TBA, so outside window. Dividend $0.25 paid Oct 1 2026 just passed so no dividend catalyst. Intraday catalysts: Morgan Stanley Top Pick note published Oct 2 8:49 AM EDT still being digested, Open Agent Safety Platform announcement, and RTX Spark Windows AI PC launch in October providing narrative tailwind. Macro: market open Friday, no FOMC in window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is failed breakout / double top at ATH cluster $236.54-$237.88 with profit-taking into weekend. Finnhub shows TradingEconomics alternative snapshot at $172.60 down -5.45% reflecting how quickly momentum can reverse on valuation concerns (P/E 29.19, beta 2.22). Invalidation would be break below $232.50 on rising volume and loss of 2.26% intraday gain, suggesting intraday buyers trapped and closing below $230.86 prior close. Memory price hike to $6,950 for DGX Spark 128GB noted Oct 2 could raise supply-chain cost concerns.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% reflects moderate confidence in direction but low confidence in magnitude for 1-day equity forecast which is near noise. Live data access achieved for price and news dated Oct 2 2026, but no order book / options gamma / intraday futures context retrieved, and conflicting price snapshots across sources ($231.13 in prediction article vs $236.52 live) increase uncertainty. Directional lean supported by Morgan Stanley catalyst and +2.45% live momentum, but ATH resistance makes a neutral-to-mild-bullish outcome most probable, not strong bullish.
Perplexity
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: NVDA is trading near all-time highs after a +1.09% close at $230.86 on Oct 1, with premarket/early-session prints around $235-$237 on Oct 2 following a record $150B buyback authorization increase (total $235B remaining) and fresh hyperscaler demand headlines. [1][20][22][26]
(2) Technical synthesis: The stock sits just below/near the $234.75-$235 resistance zone identified in late-September consolidation, with support confluence around $228-$232 (prior highs, moving averages, and volume). Momentum indicators are constructive (MACD bullish, RSI ~60), while MFI >70 flags some overbought risk that can cap a single-day surge. [28][31][42]
(3) Price range: Anchoring to a live quote of $235.24, a 1-day range of $232.50-$239.50 reflects (i) a near-term support shelf at $232-$233 where call/put open interest clusters and prior intraday highs sit, and (ii) a breakout extension toward $239-$240 if price clears the $234.75-$235 resistance with momentum, aligning with nearby Fibonacci extension magnets. [20][28][31][37]
(4) Catalysts inside window: No earnings or macro prints are due within the 1-day window; the dominant catalysts are the buyback overhang (largest in history) and AI-demand headlines (e.g., multi-year compute commitments from Anthropic/xAI/OpenAI, Amazon chip-leasing reports) that continue to draw momentum flows. Next major fundamental event is Q3 earnings on Nov 17. [21][22][23][26][27]
(5) Counter-argument/invalidation: A failure to hold $232-$233 on a market-wide risk-off move (or a sharp reversal through the $234.75-$235 ceiling back into the $228-$230 pocket) would argue for a mean-reversion day rather than a breakout, given elevated MFI and the potential for profit-taking near records. [28][31][42]
(6) Confidence: 58% reflects strong fundamental/tape support (buyback, demand narrative, bullish technical structure) offset by the short 1-day horizon, proximity to resistance, and the realistic chance of a choppy, range-bound session despite the bullish bias. [22][26][42]
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: NVDA was approximately $236.56 at 11:00 AM Eastern, only minutes before the 15:04 UTC forecast start, up about 2.5% on the session and near its 52-week/record-high area around $237-$238. MarketBeat reported $236.56 at 11:00 AM ET, while MarketWatch described a roughly $5.94, or 2.6%, gain. The move followed Morgan Stanley reinstating Nvidia as its top semiconductor pick and came several days after Nvidia authorized an additional $150 billion of share repurchases. Sources: https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/nvidias-rally-sets-up-a-bigger-test-ahead-of-earnings/ ; https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-stock-regains-top-pick-status-at-morgan-stanley/ ; https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-adds-150-billion-existing-share-repurchase-plan-2026-09-28/
(2) Current market regime: The immediate regime is bullish momentum with NVDA pressing into prior highs while the broader Nasdaq is also at record territory. The macro impulse is supportive today: September nonfarm payrolls increased only 29,000 versus roughly 90,000 expected and unemployment rose to 4.2%, which pushed Treasury yields lower and reduced expectations for an October Fed rate increase. Reuters reported the Nasdaq opening 1.27% higher, and later coverage showed risk assets extending gains. The qualification is that NVDA is already stretched near resistance after a rapid intraday advance, so continuation can coexist with meaningful profit-taking risk. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-job-growth-slows-sharply-september-unemployment-rate-rises-42-2026-10-02/ ; https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-gain-yields-oil-prices-ease-ahead-jobs-report-2026-10-02/
(3) Price range justification: I use $232-$243 for the remaining one-day window, skewed modestly upward from the $236.56 reference price. The lower bound is near Thursday's $230.86 close plus the lower portion of today's breakout area, while $237-$238 is the immediate record-high zone; a momentum extension through that resistance could reach roughly $241-$243. Recent 30-day realized volatility has been reported near 37.7% annualized, equivalent to roughly 2.4% for a typical trading day, so a several-dollar intraday expansion is plausible. Because this forecast begins late Friday morning and the following calendar day is Saturday, most observable price discovery in the stated 24-hour period occurs during the remaining Friday session. Sources: https://www.tallacoptions.com/Data/EOD/NVDA ; https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/NVDA/peers-comparison
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The dominant catalyst has already occurred: the weak September employment report drove yields lower and equities higher. Company-specific sentiment is also being supported by Morgan Stanley's renewed positive stance and the recently enlarged repurchase authorization. Reuters additionally reported today that Amazon is considering transferring approximately $8 billion of installed Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a special-purpose vehicle and leasing them back, evidence of continued large-scale AI infrastructure deployment but also of increasingly complex financing around AI assets. There is no Nvidia earnings release inside this one-day window; Nvidia's latest earnings-call transcript scheduled fiscal Q3 results for November 17, 2026. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/view-soft-september-jobs-report-sends-markets-higher-2026-10-02/ ; https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-seeks-offload-8-billion-nvidia-chips-investors-ft-reports-2026-10-02/ ; https://investor.nvidia.com/files/content_files/TRANSCRIPT_-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-US-Q2-2027-Earnings-Call-26-August-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The main bearish case is that today's positive macro shock and analyst catalyst are already heavily reflected in a stock trading at or above previous record levels, making the setup vulnerable to an intraday reversal if yields rebound or traders monetize the breakout. Longer-term concerns also remain around the economics and financing of the AI infrastructure boom: Reuters reported that lenders are assigning shorter economic lives to GPU collateral than Nvidia argues for and are demanding stronger guarantees. A sustained reversal back below roughly $233, followed by pressure toward the prior $230.86 close, would weaken the near-term bullish interpretation substantially. Source: https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/nvidias-bet-that-its-chips-can-finance-ai-boom-gets-wall-street-reality-check-2026-10-01/
(6) Why confidence is 67%: The directional evidence is unusually aligned for a one-day forecast: NVDA has strong positive intraday momentum, a fresh company-specific analyst catalyst, a major recent buyback announcement, lower Treasury yields, and a record-setting Nasdaq backdrop. Confidence is capped at 67% because the stock is simultaneously testing an important historical high after already gaining more than 2% today, leaving considerable reversal risk, and because only several trading hours remain before the weekend rather than a full next trading session.
claude-opus-5-5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nvidia-hits-record-high-as-ai-optimism-buyback-lift-shares-4930063) reported NVDA at $237.75, up about 2.8-2.9% on October 2, 2026, at a new record high above the May peak. That puts the prior close near $231. An earlier Investing.com piece (https://investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-nvidia-stock-climbing-today-93CH-4929289, 5:45 AM ET) had premarket at $235.13, and a later one noted a $236.57 all-time high on the way up. The catalysts are a $150B buyback increase that brings remaining authorization to $235B through FY2028, Morgan Stanley naming NVDA its top semiconductor pick, Cantor's Overweight rating with a $350 target, and reports that China may allow Alibaba and ByteDance to buy RTX Pro 5500 chips (https://timothysykes.com/news/nvidia-corporation-nvda-news-2026_10_02). I could not get a tick-level quote at exactly 15:04 UTC, so $237.75 is the latest intraday print I found from that session.
(2) Regime: NVDA is breaking out to all-time highs after weeks of higher lows from the low $210s. The macro backdrop is mixed. The September jobs report came in soft, which pulled the 10-year yield back from its highest level since 2002 and cut rate-hike bets, and Nasdaq futures were up about 0.7% before the open (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-friday-october-2-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-september-jobs-report-080623878.html). Brent crude near $102 and Middle East tensions are still headwinds. Overall: risk-on momentum in AI leaders, with high rates as a fragile floor.
(3) Price range: I assume realized daily volatility of about 2.5-3% for NVDA in this regime, a one-day 1σ of roughly ±$6.5. The range from $230.50 to $244.50 runs about -3.0% to +2.8%. The lower bound is close to the prior close and the gap origin (~$231). Filling the gap would be the main bearish scenario, and that zone also matches the recent breakout area. The upper bound allows some follow-through above the new high. The range has a slight upward tilt in probability, not in width, because a fresh breakout backed by a record buyback tends to see dips bought. Even so, after a nearly 3% gap the move is extended, so I kept the downside room roughly equal to the upside.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The window runs through the next session (Monday, October 5), which has no NVDA-specific scheduled event I could find. Things that could move it are follow-up from the jobs data (rates repricing), Treasury yield moves, oil and Middle East headlines, any confirmation of Chinese purchase approvals, and flows into quarter-start positioning. The next earnings date is not inside the window.
(5) Counter-argument: Gaps to all-time highs on news-driven days often get partly retraced, and Friday-afternoon profit taking before a weekend with geopolitical risk is plausible. If yields bounce back toward their multi-decade highs, high-multiple tech could drop quickly. A move back below about $231 (gap fill and prior close) would invalidate the mildly bullish one-day view and point to a failed breakout.
(6) Confidence: 55% reflects one-day direction being mostly noise. The fundamental and flow backdrop (buyback, analyst upgrades, demand commitments) supports the 7-day and 30-day bias more than the next session. Short timeframes (1h, 4h) are set to neutral because the stock is consolidating after the gap, with no clear edge.
Grok 4
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from CNBC (235.29 at ~11:06 AM EDT), Yahoo Finance (235.02 at 11:08 AM EDT), and multiple aggregators show NVDA trading near $235 after opening at ~236 and printing a new 52-week/all-time high of 237.88 earlier in the session. Prior close was 230.86. Day range so far 234.53-237.88. Sources include CNBC, Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, TradeSmith, and Investing.com pages dated Oct 2 2026. ATR(14) near 5.82 from recent technical data.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Strong bullish momentum after a multi-week recovery from July lows, driven by AI demand confirmation, a record $150B buyback authorization increase (announced ~Sep 28), and Morgan Stanley reinstating NVDA as its top semiconductor pick after meetings with management. Price is at/near all-time highs with market cap approaching $5.7T. Short-term realized volatility has compressed (20-day ~25% annualized) while longer-term remains elevated. Breadth and analyst consensus remain strongly constructive.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live ~$235.20 quote. Typical daily ATR of ~$5.8-6 supports a one-day swing of roughly ±2.5%. The lower bound at $230 allows for a partial retracement of today’s gap-up and profit-taking near the new high; the upper bound at $242 allows continuation if buying pressure persists into the close or after-hours. Range is asymmetric slightly higher to reflect the prevailing directional bias and recent high of 237.88 already achieved.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific events (earnings next estimated mid-to-late November). Macro data or broader tech flows could influence, but the dominant near-term drivers remain the buyback program and positive analyst commentary already in the market. Weekend gap risk is limited given the Friday timing.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp fade from the new high on heavy volume could signal exhaustion after the multi-day rally and today’s gap, potentially driving a test of the prior close near 231 or lower support around 228. Invalidation of the mild bullish bias would be a close below ~230 with expanding volume and negative breadth in semiconductors.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: One-day equity forecasts are inherently noisy; the 42% reflects solid directional evidence from price action, news flow, and positioning yet acknowledges that intraday reversals near record highs remain common and that no high-conviction catalyst sits inside the exact 24-hour window.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: NVDA is trading at record levels as of October 2, 2026. Yahoo Finance reported the stock hit a new all-time intraday high of $237.55 in early trading after opening at $236.05, eclipsing its prior May 14 high of $235.54, with intraday market cap reaching $5.7 trillion. Longport reported the stock was on track for a record closing high of $236.24, up 2.33%. The stock has risen in five of the past six sessions, extending a nearly 25% rally from a late-July low, per Bloomberg. The previous close on October 1 was $230.86.
(2) Market regime: The stock is in a confirmed breakout regime. After a two-month selloff that erased over $1 trillion in market value, NVDA has reclaimed its May highs and is trading in blue-sky territory above all prior resistance. The catalyst stack is unusually dense: the board authorized a record $150 billion increase to its buyback program (bringing total authorization to $235 billion through fiscal 2028), Morgan Stanley restored NVDA as its top semiconductor pick with a $300 target on October 2, and the analyst consensus stands at Strong Buy with an average target of $327.70, per stockanalysis.com. RSI is around 60.1 with price above the EMA21/50/200, per KuCoin technical data - momentum is positive but not yet extreme.
(3) Price range justification: The prior all-time high at $235.54 (May 14) has flipped from resistance to support. The next technical resistance sits at $236.54 (per MarketScreener), which the stock has already cleared intraday. Below, first meaningful support is $228-$230 (the October 1 close and recent consolidation zone), with deeper support at $207.25. Recent daily ranges have been $4-$6 (October 1: $228.17-$232.37; September 30: $227.03-$232.82). For a 1-day horizon, I expect a range of $233-$242, skewed slightly upward given the breakout momentum and the buyback bid.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: There are no scheduled earnings inside the 1-day window. The next earnings date is November 18-25, 2026 (sources differ: stockanalysis.com and Yahoo cite November 18; Investing.com cites November 25). The buyback authorization and Morgan Stanley upgrade are already public and being absorbed. The main intraday catalysts are the continuation of the buyback bid and any macro or AI-sector headlines from the broader market.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The stock has already moved sharply - up nearly 25% from the late-July low and up roughly 2.3% on the day - and a single-day reversal or consolidation after a breakout to new highs is common. AI-bubble concerns remain a persistent overhang, and the stock's short interest, while low at under 1.5% of float, includes long-dated bond short positions per Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage data, indicating some institutional hedging. A broad market risk-off move or disappointing AI-infrastructure spending commentary from any major customer could invalidate the bullish call.
(6) Confidence rationale: 55% reflects genuine uncertainty. The direction is supported by strong momentum, a record buyback, and a major analyst upgrade, but a 1-day horizon is dominated by noise and the stock is extended after a multi-day run. The confidence is not higher because breakout days are frequently followed by mean-reversion or profit-taking, and no company-specific catalyst is scheduled within the window itself.
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