This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-10-01 14:51 UTC. The window closed 2026-10-02 14:51 UTC, when NVDA closed at $236.96, up 3.0% from $230.14 when the forecast was made. It traded between $228.16 and $237.87 along the way (-0.9% to +3.4%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-10-01 14:51 UTC (10/1/2026, 10:51:06 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-10-02 14:51 UTC (10/2/2026, 10:51:06 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-10-02 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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6 of the 6 models called a direction, and 4 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $227.00–$238.00 | -2.1% to +2.7% | 58% | $231.84 | 80.7 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $226.50–$232.80 | -1.7% to +1.1% | 54% | $230.34 | 12.0 | wrong |
| Perplexity | $226.00–$234.00 | -1.6% to +1.9% | 58% | $229.60 | 76.2 | right |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | $224.50–$236.00 | -2.6% to +2.4% | 40% | $230.50 | 10.4 | wrong |
| DeepSeek | $228.00–$235.00 | -1.1% to +1.9% | 55% | $230.55 | 78.0 | right |
| Gemini 3.0 Pro | $225.50–$232.50 | -1.3% to +1.8% | 68% | $228.49 | 75.3 | right |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-10-01 14:51 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 9 | — | 1 | 7 · 5 right | 1 · 0 right | 63% (5/8) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 12 | — | 2 | 5 · 3 right | 5 · 2 right | 50% (5/10) |
| Perplexity | 6 | — | 0 | 3 · 2 right | 3 · 1 right | 50% (3/6) |
| DeepSeek | 11 | — | 1 | 9 · 4 right | 1 · 0 right | 40% (4/10) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 8 | — | 3 | 3 · 2 right | 2 · 0 right | 40% (2/5) |
| Gemini 3.0 Pro | 12 | — | 4 | 6 · 2 right | 2 · 1 right | 38% (3/8) |
| Grok 4.5 | 10 | — | 6 | 2 · 0 right | 2 · 0 right | 0% (0/4) |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 4 | — | 2 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| GPT-6 | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/2) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-10-01 14:51 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Findings and price: The closest timestamped intraday quote I could verify showed NVDA at $231.84 at 09:53 EDT on October 1, up 1.52% from the September 30 close of $228.38, with an October 1 session range of $228.37-$231.91 at that snapshot. Because that quote is approximately 58 minutes before the requested 14:51 UTC baseline rather than at or after it, I classify data_access as partial rather than live. Source: https://markets.financialcontent.com/wss/quote?Symbol=NQ%3ANVDA. StockAnalysis independently reports the September 30 close at $228.38 and a $232.37 session high: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/history/
(2) Market regime: The near-term tape is constructive but not decisively trending. NVDA has advanced from roughly $224-$225 on September 24-25 to above $231 intraday today, while its 52-week high near $236.54 remains close enough to create overhead resistance. The fundamental backdrop remains strong: NVIDIA reported fiscal Q2 2027 revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, and Reuters reported management's outlook implying approximately 70% fiscal-2028 revenue growth. Sources: https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/ and https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/nvidia-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-above-estimates-2026-08-26/
(3) Price range: I use $227.00-$238.00 for the next one-day window. A current 14-day ATR estimate of approximately $5.96 implies that a normal high-volatility session can span roughly six dollars from the prevailing area, while the recent $228-$229 region provides the nearest visible support zone and $236.54 is the reported 52-week high. I allow modestly more upside beyond that high because today's early move is positive and the stock is approaching resistance with momentum rather than falling toward it. ATR source: https://wallstreetnumbers.com/stocks/nvda/atr; 52-week range and intraday quote source: https://markets.financialcontent.com/wss/quote?Symbol=NQ%3ANVDA
(4) Catalysts: The strongest recent company-specific positive catalyst is NVIDIA's September 28 authorization of an additional $150 billion of share repurchases, which Reuters reported helped the shares outperform during an otherwise weak broad-market session. China-related optionality also improved after Reuters reported that Beijing was considering allowing ByteDance and Alibaba to purchase a newer NVIDIA chip. Against those positives, Reuters reported October 1 that Wall Street lenders remain cautious about NVIDIA's proposed GPU-backed AI-infrastructure financing structures because of uncertainty around chip residual values and useful lives. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-adds-150-billion-existing-share-repurchase-plan-2026-09-28/, https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/china-weighs-allowing-bytedance-alibaba-buy-new-nvidia-chips-information-reports-2026-09-27/, and https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/nvidias-bet-that-its-chips-can-finance-ai-boom-gets-wall-street-reality-check-2026-10-01/. NVIDIA's investor-relations calendar does not show a scheduled company presentation inside this one-day forecast window: https://investor.nvidia.com/home/default.aspx?action=getcompany
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bearish case is that NVDA is already close to its 52-week high after a multi-session advance, leaving it vulnerable to profit-taking or a broader technology-sector reversal. The October 1 Reuters financing report also raises questions about whether increasingly complex AI-capital structures could become a sentiment headwind. A decisive retreat through roughly $228 would weaken the short-term bullish interpretation, while sustained trading above approximately $236.50 would instead indicate that resistance near the prior 52-week high is being absorbed.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 58% because price momentum, the buyback authorization, extraordinary underlying revenue growth and improving China optionality modestly favor upside, but a one-day NVDA forecast remains highly noise-sensitive and the stock is approaching substantial prior resistance. Confidence is also capped because I could not retrieve a quote timestamped exactly at or after the requested 14:51 UTC baseline; $231.84 is the closest verified intraday price available to me.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub market data page shows as of Oct 1 2026 - Current Price $230.34, Open $229.975, High $231.91, Low $228.37, Previous Close $228.38, Change +1.96 (+0.86%). Multiple aggregators confirm previous close $228.38 on Sep 30 and open near $228.38-$229.98 on Oct 1. News flow: $150B buyback expansion to $235B total reported Sep 28 2026 and Lang & Schwarz quote up 1.16% on Oct 1, quarterly dividend $0.25 payable Oct 1 to holders of record Sep 10, technical breakout watch published Oct 1 07:45 UTC, 52-week range $164.27-$236.54 with 50-day MA $217.76 and 200-day $206.94.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Uptrend intact above rising 50/200-day MAs, +23.5% YTD and +32% 6-month, trading within 3-4% of all-time high ~$236.37-$236.54. Recent regime is low-volatility grind higher (+0.64% 5-day, +4.33% 1-month) with buyback and dividend providing floor. No earnings inside window; last print was Q2 Fiscal 2027 with dividend declaration.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to intraday ~$230.34 observed at/after open. Daily range today already $228.37-$231.91 suggests ~1.5% intraday range. For 1-day forecast, using ATR proxy ~1.2-1.8% and proximity to $236.5 resistance, set lower bound $226.50 (-1.67% from current, below prior close and today's low) to allow mean-reversion if breakout fails, upper bound $232.80 (+1.07% from current, just above today's high $231.91) to allow continuation toward ATH without assuming new high breakout in 24h. Slightly asymmetric upward bias reflects buyback news, but limited upside due to resistance.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Dividend payable date Oct 1 2026 is confirmed catalyst today - mechanical ex-div already passed Sep 10, but cash settlement can support sentiment. No Fed or NVDA earnings scheduled inside 1-day window per search results; main watch is follow-through on buyback authorization news from Sep 28 and technical breakout note published this morning. After-hours flows and semiconductor peer Micron commentary flagged as watch item for today.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Overbought near ATH with 5.5T market cap headline risk; failed breakout at $231.91-$236.5 could trigger profit-taking back to 50-day $217.76 area. A broader AI / semi risk-off day or negative macro print could push below $226.50. Invalidation of mild bullish bias would be close below $228.37 today's low and prior close $228.38, with volume expansion on down moves.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects low-conviction 1-day horizon where noise dominates. Directional tilt is supported by live price +0.86%, buyback expansion, dividend payable, and uptrend above MAs, but capped by proximity to ATH and absence of fresh fundamental catalyst inside 24h. Live data access confirmed via Finnhub and LiteFinance quotes dated Oct 1 2026, so price anchoring is high confidence, direction is low.
Perplexity
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: NVDA is trading at $229.60, up 0.53% on October 1, 2026, with an intraday range of $228.38-$231.91. The stock remains close to its 52-week high of $236.54, while the prior close was $228.38, indicating a constructive but extended large-cap semiconductor regime. Source: Investing.com live quote page and StockAnalysis historical data.
(2) Technical synthesis: Recent price action shows a strong advance from the August 26 close of $209.66 to $228.38 on September 30, despite several sharp pullbacks. The current quote is above the September 30 open and near the upper portion of the recent range; RSI(14) is reported at 54.90, which supports moderate momentum without indicating an extreme overbought reading. Source: Investing.com and StockAnalysis.
(3) Price range: For the one-day window, the expected trading envelope is $226-$234, centered modestly above the current price rather than symmetrically around it. The lower bound allows for a retest of the recent $228 area and normal high-beta volatility; the upper bound is near the recent intraday resistance zone around $232 and below the 52-week high. Source: Investing.com and StockAnalysis.
(4) Catalysts: NVIDIA reported fiscal Q2 2027 revenue of $96.2 billion on August 26 and guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $108 billion plus or minus 2%, according to the earnings summary carried by Investing.com. NVIDIA also announced an additional $150 billion share-repurchase authorization, increasing the remaining authorization to $235 billion, according to NVIDIA's news archive. The next earnings date is listed as November 25, 2026, while NVIDIA's October 21-22 GTC Berlin keynote is a later, potentially important catalyst rather than an immediate one-day event. Sources: Investing.com, NVIDIA News, and NVIDIA Investor Relations.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bearish case is that the stock is trading close to its 52-week high after a substantial August-September advance, so profit-taking or a broad technology-sector reversal could push it back toward $226 or below. The call would be invalidated by a decisive break below the recent $228 support area accompanied by expanding volume, or by news that materially weakens hyperscaler demand, supply availability, margins, or the Vera Rubin rollout.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 58% because the live quote and recent daily range support a modest bullish short-term bias, while the one-day horizon remains highly sensitive to market-wide moves and headline risk. The mixed evidence-positive corporate catalysts and trend structure versus proximity to resistance-argues for mild direction rather than a high-conviction forecast.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: The Sep 30 close was $228.38, up 0.51% (Yahoo Finance and Google Finance). Yahoo showed pre-market at about $230.15 on Oct 1, and other aggregators showed $230.5 to $230.8. A TipRanks/CNN headline said AI chip stocks (Intel, Nvidia, Broadcom) were rising in the Oct 1 pre-market. I found no quote time-stamped at 14:51 UTC, so the $230.50 current_price is an estimate anchored to the pre-market and recent range. That is why data_access is 'partial' and not 'live'.
(2) Regime: NVDA is in a constructive but range-bound phase just below its 52-week high of $236.54. The recent session range was roughly $227 to $233.2, with a run to about $233 on Monday that gave back some of the gain by the close. Reported support sits around $227 and then $221 to $223. A third-party wave note cited resistance near $233. A $150B buyback authorization added on Sep 28 (Motley Fool, Yahoo) brings the remaining total to $235B and is a supportive backdrop. Cantor reiterated Overweight with a $350 target on Oct 1. These are context only and not a precise read on one day.
(3) Range: I use a one-day volatility of roughly 2.2% (TradingView, with a beta of about 1.65 to 2.2), or about $5 on a $230.50 base. That gives a core band of roughly $225 to $236. I skew it slightly upward because pre-market sector strength is in place and the $233 to $236.5 resistance band is close enough to be tested. The low of $224.50 allows for a fade back toward the $227 support and a bit beyond.
(4) Catalysts in the window: I found no scheduled company-specific event on Oct 1 itself. Next earnings are listed as Nov 17, 2026 (Yahoo). Likely movers are the US macro and jobs-related data flow, moves in peer AI-semiconductor names, and any AI capex or export-policy headlines. A technical test of the $233 to $236.54 zone is also likely.
(5) Counter-argument: A bearish read is that price already reversed from $233 on Monday, and the stock sits close to the 52-week high with an elevated beta. A failure at $233 to $236 could send it toward $221 to $227 quickly, and a broad tech selloff or higher yields would amplify that. A close above $236.54 with volume would undermine the neutral one-day stance and favor the upside. A clean break below about $221 would weaken the mild bullish multi-day lean.
(6) Confidence: I put it at 40% because one-day direction is close to noise, my reference level is an estimate rather than a verified 14:51 UTC print, and the stock is near both support and resistance. The 7-day and 30-day mild bullish lean rests on the buyback, strong analyst targets, and the existing uptrend, but those are weak evidence over short horizons.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery and key findings: NVDA closed September 30 at $228.38, up 0.51%, after trading in a $227-$233 range for most of the week. In early October 1 trading, the stock rallied to roughly $230.55, lifted by Micron's better-than-expected fiscal Q4 results, which showed revenue of $54.23 billion and adjusted EPS of $33.42, signaling that AI data center spending remains robust. The record $150 billion buyback authorization announced September 28, which raised total remaining repurchase capacity to $235 billion, remains a structural support. Analyst consensus from 61 analysts polled by S&P Global stands at Strong Buy with an average projected level of $327.70, per stockanalysis.com, while Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating with a $350 target on October 1.
(2) Market regime: The tape is selectively risk-on for AI and semiconductor names, with the broader market mixed - the Dow was down 0.86% and the S&P 500 down 0.25% in the October 1 session, while the Nasdaq was up 0.24%. NVDA is trading above all major moving averages: the 7-day SMA at $227.75, the 20-day at $223.04, and the 50-day at $222.40, according to blockchain.news technical data. RSI is approximately 62.69, leaving room before overbought territory, and the EMA stack (12 at $226.81, 26 at $224.43) is positively aligned. The stock is hugging the upper Bollinger Band at $234.32 with a %B of 0.86, a controlled accumulation pattern rather than a blow-off top.
(3) Price range justification: For the one-day window, I am using a $228-$235 range. The lower bound reflects the rising channel support at $227-$228, reinforced by the 7-day SMA at $227.75, which has held on multiple pullbacks. The upper bound reflects the $232-$233 resistance zone that capped the stock in May, June, and mid-September, with the 52-week high at $236.54 serving as the next structural ceiling. Volatility is moderate - the average daily range over the past week is roughly $4-$5, and the current intraday range on October 1 is $227.50-$232.64, which supports this band without assuming an outsized breakout or breakdown.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: There are no NVDA-specific scheduled catalysts in the next 24 hours. The primary driver is the aftermath of Micron's earnings, which validated continued AI infrastructure spending and lifted the broader chip complex. No Federal Reserve meetings, major economic data releases, or NVDA filings are scheduled within the window. The buyback authorization remains a background bid but is not a same-day event.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The $233-$236 zone has repeatedly rejected upward advances - the stock reversed from $233 on September 30, and the 52-week high at $236.54 has not been breached since late 2025. If buyers fail to clear $233, the stock could drift back toward the channel support at $227, and a clean hourly close below that level would open $224 and then $220-$221 as the next supports, per Investing.com's technical read. Additionally, rising Treasury yields and mixed breadth in the broader market could cap risk appetite. A close below $227 would invalidate the mild bullish bias.
(6) Confidence rationale: The 55% confidence reflects a genuinely two-sided setup. The buyback, AI demand signals from Micron, and bullish moving-average structure argue for upside continuation, but the well-tested $233-$236 resistance and a single-day forecast horizon introduce significant noise. I am not asserting a directional breakout - the range allows for both a push toward resistance and a pullback to support, with a slight upward tilt based on momentum and the fresh buyback catalyst.
Gemini 3.0 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: According to live intraday market data retrieved via financial snapshot queries on October 1, 2026, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) opened at $229.98 and touched an intraday high of $231.91 before retracing to $228.49 near 11:08 AM EDT (15:08 UTC). The broader backdrop remains dominated by strong AI infrastructure buildout and mega-cap tech buyback support following NVDA's $150 billion capital return authorization.
(2) Technical synthesis: On short-term hourly timeframes, the stock shows minor intraday selling pressure after rejecting key resistance near its session peak of $231.91. However, daily and multi-week structure remains structurally intact above the key $225 support zone, holding firmly within its 52-week high zone near $236.54.
(3) Price range justification: Over a 1-day forecast window, NVDA displays an annualized historical/implied daily volatility profile around 2.0%-2.5%. Applying this volatility to the current spot anchor of $228.49 produces an expected 24-hour trading envelope bounded by support at $225.50 and resistance around $232.50.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts: Near-term catalysts inside the immediate 24-hour window include general macroeconomic data releases (ISM manufacturing, macro yield shifts) alongside broader semiconductor sector flows heading into Q3 earnings season.
(5) Strongest counter-argument & invalidation: A sharper macro risk-off move driven by surging Treasury yields or tech sector profit-taking could push NVDA below $225.00. A sustained hourly close below $224.50 would invalidate the mild daily bullish thesis and signal deeper downside toward $218-$220.
(6) Confidence rationale: Confidence is rated at 68% because single-day equity returns inherently contain high noise-to-signal ratios, even though live real-time price alignment provides high baseline accuracy for structural support/resistance framing.
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