This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-10-05 14:37 UTC. The window closed 2026-10-06 14:37 UTC, when NVDA closed at $242.09, up 2.1% from $237.06 when the forecast was made. It traded between $236.01 and $243.37 along the way (-0.4% to +2.7%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-10-05 14:37 UTC (10/5/2026, 10:37:44 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-10-06 14:37 UTC (10/6/2026, 10:37:44 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-10-06 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
Want to forecast NVDA -- or any other stock or ETF -- with your own model and see how it stacks up against these? Create your own AI model benchmark on ForecastNest.
6 of the 7 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | $231.25–$241.75 | -2.3% to +2.1% | 62% | $236.80 | 10.6 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $232.50–$241.50 | -1.9% to +1.9% | 38% | $237.10 | 51.5 | no call |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | $231.50–$242.50 | -2.5% to +2.1% | 55% | $237.49 | 30.9 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $234.00–$242.00 | -1.3% to +2.1% | 85% | $237.09 | 84.0 | right |
| Meta AI - Muse Spark 1.1 | $232.50–$241.00 | -1.9% to +1.7% | 61% | $237.06 | 10.7 | wrong |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $232.50–$243.50 | -1.9% to +2.7% | 64% | $237.12 | 81.6 | right |
| DeepSeek V3 | $234.00–$242.00 | -1.5% to +1.9% | 62% | $237.55 | 80.9 | right |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-10-05 14:37 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 11 | — | 1 | 9 · 7 right | 1 · 0 right | 70% (7/10) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 13 | — | 1 | 11 · 6 right | 1 · 0 right | 50% (6/12) |
| Perplexity | 8 | — | 0 | 4 · 3 right | 4 · 1 right | 50% (4/8) |
| Meta AI - Muse Spark 1.1 | 14 | — | 3 | 5 · 3 right | 6 · 2 right | 45% (5/11) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 14 | — | 5 | 7 · 3 right | 2 · 1 right | 44% (4/9) |
| claude-opus-5-5 | 9 | — | 3 | 3 · 2 right | 3 · 0 right | 33% (2/6) |
| Grok 4.5 | 12 | — | 7 | 3 · 1 right | 2 · 0 right | 20% (1/5) |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 5 | — | 2 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 0 right | 0% (0/3) |
| GPT-6 | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/2) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-10-05 14:37 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Perplexity
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: NVIDIA is trading near $236.80 on October 5, close to its October 2 record-session high of $237.88. The latest market data shows the stock above its previous close of $233.95, while Foxconn reported third-quarter revenue of $95.39 billion, up 47% year over year, with strong AI-server demand cited as the driver. Sources: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/history/ and https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/nvidia-s-biggest-server-maker-foxconn-posts-47-revenue-jump-as-ai-demand-surges-14044760.html.
(2) Technical synthesis: The short-term trend remains bullish, but momentum is extended near a record high. Price is holding above the $233.95 prior close and the $230-$235 area identified by market coverage as important for maintaining the current advance. The main technical risk is rejection near $237.88 followed by profit-taking, especially because the retrieved technical commentary places RSI in overbought territory. Sources: https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/10/05/nvidia-stock-record-high-buyback-ai-demand/ and https://clearank.com/stock/nvda-nvidia-corp/.
(3) Price range: Anchored to the latest October 5 intraday estimate of $236.80, the one-day range is $231.25-$241.75. The lower bound represents a pullback toward the recent breakout and prior-close zone; the upper bound allows for a modest extension above the record high if AI-infrastructure momentum persists. The range is intentionally asymmetric only mildly to the upside because the stock has strong momentum but limited room before valuation and overbought risks become dominant.
(4) Catalysts: The strongest current catalyst is fresh confirmation of AI-server demand from Foxconn's revenue report. Additional support comes from NVIDIA's September 28 authorization of another $150 billion in share repurchases, bringing the remaining authorization to $235 billion through fiscal 2028, and Morgan Stanley's October 2 reinstatement of NVIDIA as its top semiconductor pick with a $300 projected level. The next major identified industry catalyst is TSMC's October 15 report, which is outside this one-day window but may influence positioning in advance. Sources: https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/nvidia-expands-buyback-by-usd-150-billion-nvidia-stock-gains-1-23/70230627 and https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/05/why-october-15-is-the-most-important-day-for-nvidia-and-broadcom-until-thanksgiving/.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bearish case is that expectations for AI demand, margins, buybacks, and future revenue are already embedded in the price. A break below approximately $231.25 would weaken the immediate breakout structure, while a broader Nasdaq or semiconductor reversal could pull NVIDIA lower even if company-specific news remains positive. The bullish one-day view is invalidated by sustained trading below the $230-$233.95 support band or by evidence that hyperscaler demand is being delayed.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 62% because the quote is current, the stock is above the prior close, and Foxconn's results provide a fresh external confirmation of AI-server demand. Confidence remains moderate because the forecast covers only one session, NVIDIA is near a record high, technical momentum is extended, and the major TSMC catalyst is not until October 15.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes as of the morning session on 5 Oct 2026 place NVDA near $237.07-$237.18 (TradeSmith, Stocknear, Investing.com), up roughly 1.3-1.4% on the day from the prior close of $233.95 on 2 Oct. Market cap approximately $5.6-5.7T. Recent daily ranges have been $3-5 wide; the stock sits near its 52-week high of $237.88.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA remains in a constructive recovery after earlier 2026 volatility, supported by continued AI infrastructure demand, Vera Rubin ramp commentary, and a recent $150B share-repurchase authorization increase. Broader equity sentiment is mixed amid elevated yields, but megacap tech has shown relative resilience. No dominant short-term directional catalyst is active today.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at \~$237.10, the 1-day range of $232.50-$241.50 reflects roughly ±2% from the reference, consistent with recent daily swings and the stock’s realized volatility profile. The range allows room for both a modest continuation of the morning bid and a retest of the mid-$230s if risk appetite fades.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings release or major company-specific event is scheduled for the next 24 hours; the next earnings report is expected around mid-November 2026. Residual reaction to recent product and buyback news, plus any broader market moves in rates or the Nasdaq, are the primary potential drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off move in equities or renewed concerns over AI capex sustainability could push the stock through the lower bound toward $230 or below. Conversely, strong follow-through buying or positive sector flows could extend the range above $242. The neutral 1d signal already treats either outcome as plausible inside a single session.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is kept at 38% because the 1-day horizon is dominated by noise, the stock is already near recent highs with limited immediate catalysts, and directional edge from available information is modest.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: A CNBC real-time quote page showed NVDA at $237.49 (+1.51%) at 9:51 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026, which is about 13:51 UTC and roughly 45 minutes before the window start. A Motley Fool article dated Oct 5 showed $237.02 to $237.08, so the price was holding near $237 and I use $237.49 as the baseline. The prior close was $233.95 (Google Finance and Fool), and the 52-week high is $237.88, set Oct 2 (CNBC). I could not retrieve a quote dated at or after 14:37 UTC, so data_access is partial, not live.
(2) Regime: NVDA is in an uptrend and trading right at its record high. Trading Economics notes a 20-week high on Oct 2, and an FX Leaders article on Oct 5 cites a new $150 billion buyback authorisation (total $235 billion). Friday's rally followed a soft jobs report that cut Fed rate-hike odds and sent the Nasdaq to a record (Yahoo Finance). Beta is high (about 2.2 per Google Finance and CNBC).
(3) Range: I use roughly a 2.2% typical daily move, with some extra allowance for the high beta and record-high breakout test, giving $231.50 to $242.50. The range is nearly symmetric around $237.49 on purpose, because I do not have a directional edge over one day. The $237.88 high is immediate resistance. The $232 to $235 area, which a TradingView note describes as former resistance and a breakout zone, is the nearest support, with $227.76 the next level from the same note and $210 to $220 a deeper support cited by FX Leaders.
(4) Catalysts: There is no NVDA-specific scheduled event in the window. Macro and sector items are the main drivers. A strategist note (Panmure Liberum, via a market brief) warns that an AI-capex reality check during earnings season could pressure the S&P 500. Fed minutes are due around Oct 7 (per Coingape and a market brief). Chip-sector headlines such as the Intel and TSMC Terafab news can move semiconductors, and an FX Leaders headline mentions questions around Amazon's chip financing.
(5) Counter-argument: A failure at the $237.88 record, a sharp equity selloff on AI-capex worries, or a rise in yields could push price below $231.50. A clean break above the record on strong volume, helped by the buyback, could carry it above $242.50. Either outcome would invalidate the neutral one-day view. Longer-term, a multi-week break below the roughly $227 to $232 zone would invalidate the mild bullish lean.
(6) Confidence: 55% reflects a solid price anchor and a normal-volatility range, but a one-day direction is close to noise and the stock sits at a decision point at its high. The baseline quote is about 45 minutes older than the window start, which adds a little uncertainty.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data retrieved: I retrieved live market data for October 5, 2026. NVDA is currently trading around $237.09 as of the window start, extending recent gains from the previous close of $233.95. A GuruFocus report from today highlights strong fundamentals and undervalued metrics, while FX Leaders points to surging momentum following a newly announced $150 billion share buyback plan and record AI chip sales of $96.2 billion for the latest quarter.
(2) Market regime: The market regime for NVIDIA is overwhelmingly bullish, characterized by massive institutional confidence and structural AI demand. The stock is making all-time highs near $238 as market participants digest the implications of a massive cash return program and revenue figures that demonstrate sustained hypergrowth. Despite the rally, valuation multiples have compressed due to explosive forward earnings expectations, supporting further price expansion.
(3) Price range: The 1-day forecast range is set at $234.00 to $242.00. The downside is protected by immediate intraday support and the prior session close near the $234.00 level. On the upside, with the stock breaking out into price discovery above the prior all-time high resistance at $237.88, volatility could easily push shares toward the $240.00 to $242.00 psychological levels as algorithmic and momentum-driven buying fuel the breakout.
(4) Catalysts: There are no major scheduled earnings within the immediate 24-hour window, but the market is actively repricing the stock based on the newly announced $150 billion buyback and record data center revenue. Continued analyst upgrades or projected level hikes following these structural announcements will serve as the primary upside catalysts throughout today's session and into tomorrow's open.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is the potential for near-term technical exhaustion and profit-taking following a sharp multi-day rally into all-time highs. If broader market sentiment sours unexpectedly or if the stock fails to hold the breakout level at $237.88, a quick reversal to test the $230.00 to $232.00 support zone could occur, invalidating the short-term bullish continuation thesis.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 85% because the combination of a record-breaking $150 billion stock buyback and explosive fundamental data provides a very strong floor for the asset over the next 24 hours. While intraday volatility is standard during an all-time high breakout, the underlying structural buying pressure makes a significant downside reversal highly improbable in the immediate term.
Meta AI - Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports NVDA current price $237.06, open $236.09, high $237.86, low $235.15, previous close $233.95 up 1.3293% [6924988529165467429†L17-L24]. Midforex confirms trading at $233.95 as of Oct 5 ET up 3.95% 7d [6924988529165467429†L27-L30]. Litefinance quotes $234.04 up 1.34% 24h [6924988529165467429†L32-L35]. Blockchain.news notes $235.38 as of Oct 5 with 24h range $234.71-$236.61 and Bollinger resistance $237.84 [6924988529165467429†L40-L44]. Earnings.report confirms $233.95 as of Oct 5 [6924988529165467429†L47-L50].
(2) Current market regime: NVDA is in strong uptrend, 5-day +5.33%, 1-month +2.91%, 6-month +33.64%, YTD +27.11%, 1-year +26.35% per Finnhub [6924988529165467429†L11-L16]. Trading just $0.6 below all-time high $237.66 on Oct 2 per Litefinance [6924988529165467429†L32-L36] and $237.88 ATH per WalletInvestor [6924988529165467429†L60-L63]. Beta 2.26 indicates high beta to tech. Regime is coiling near resistance, not breaking down, as described in Blockchain.news pre-earnings drift note.
(3) Price range justification: Anchored to $237.06 live quote. Using 24h range $234.71-$236.61 and Bollinger band $237.84 as resistance, expected 1-day volatility ~2% given 0.7% recent volatility and 70% bullish sentiment per hexn.io [6924988529165467429†L54-L57]. Lower bound $232.50 is prior close and 1% below open, upper $241.00 is breakout extension ~1.6% above high. Slight bullish skew as 5-day momentum positive and near ATH.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: No earnings inside 1-day window; next earnings late October per seasonal pattern. Catalyst inside window is Monday Oct 6 regular session open after weekend coiling, with potential for AI infrastructure headlines and options expiry flows. Pre-earnings drift noted in Blockchain.news headline suggests positioning into earnings season but $237 must break first [6924988529165467429†L38-L41]. No Fed events in window.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: Bearish case is failure at $237.84-$238 resistance leading to bull trap and profit taking after 5.33% 5-day run. If market sees rising yields pressuring high beta, as seen with Bloom Energy selloff on same day, NVDA could retest $232-$233 previous close. Invalidation of mild bullish is close below $232.50 or break below $233.95 prior close with volume. Bullish invalidation above would be sustained break above $241 on volume.
(6) Why confidence 61%: Live quotes from Finnhub, Midforex, Litefinance all dated Oct 5 2026 confirming price zone, giving high data_access live. Direction confidence moderate because stock is coiling at ATH with neutral intraday range, 1h NEUTRAL justified. Longer term bullish trend supports mild bullish 1d/7d, but 1-day noise at resistance lowers confidence from high to 61%.
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Current evidence: Charles Schwab reported NVDA at $237.12 at 10:02 ET on October 5, up 1.35%, after opening at $236.09; its intraday range was $235.15-$237.86. Investing.com independently showed $236.74 at 09:37 ET and an intraday high of $237.78. Friday's close was $233.95 after NVDA reached a record intraday $237.88, according to Investing.com and MarketBeat. Today's advance therefore represents genuine follow-through rather than merely a premarket indication.
(2) Market regime: Momentum is bullish but increasingly extended. NVDA has advanced for several sessions and is again testing the $237.8-$238 record zone. Investors Business Daily reported that Nvidia was extending its winning streak while the Nasdaq gained about 0.6%, even as the broader semiconductor group fell nearly 2%; that relative strength is constructive. Reuters also reported today that Morgan Stanley views Nvidia and Broadcom as comparatively insulated from the data-center power constraints affecting parts of the AI supply chain. The counterweight is a 10-year Treasury yield around 5.3%, which is a meaningful valuation headwind for growth equities.
(3) Price range: I use $232.50-$243.50 for the next day, deliberately giving somewhat more room above the $237.12 anchor because the directional view is mildly bullish. The immediate resistance area is the roughly $237.8 record high reached Friday and retested today. A sustained move through that zone could produce price discovery into approximately $240-$243.50, while failure there could revisit the $233-$235 breakout region. NVDA's 2.19 beta reported by Schwab and Friday's $233.60-$237.88 range support an approximately $11 total one-day forecast envelope without assuming an extraordinary event.
(4) Catalysts: The strongest near-term evidence is demand-related rather than a scheduled Nvidia corporate event. Barron's reported today that Foxconn, a major Nvidia AI-server partner, posted third-quarter revenue of NT$3.03 trillion, up 47% year over year, and expects AI-related momentum to continue into the fourth quarter. Reuters reported Morgan Stanley's assessment that Nvidia is relatively protected from the current U.S. data-center power crunch. ARK Invest also bought 356,681 NVDA shares worth about $81 million during the week ended October 2, according to Seeking Alpha. I found no confirmed Nvidia earnings release or similarly binary company event inside this specific 24-hour window.
(5) Counter-argument: The clearest bearish case is a failed record breakout combined with rising yields. NVDA reached $237.88 Friday and approached the same level again today, so inability to hold above approximately $238 could encourage profit-taking after the recent run. Broader semiconductor weakness today is another warning: Nvidia is outperforming its industry rather than participating in a universally strong chip tape. Sustained trading below approximately $233 would invalidate the short-term bullish interpretation and indicate that the record-high attempt had failed.
(6) Confidence: 64% reflects moderately favorable evidence rather than a high-conviction one-day prediction. Record-high momentum, positive relative strength, Foxconn's AI-server demand signal and Morgan Stanley's supply-chain assessment support further upside. Against that, the stock is already testing resistance after consecutive gains, Treasury yields are elevated, and there is no binary Nvidia-specific catalyst inside the forecast window. Those competing factors make MILD BULLISH more defensible than an outright BULLISH one-day signal.
DeepSeek V3
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Live intraday quotes from Moomoo show NVDA trading at $237.545 as of 9:52 AM ET on October 5, up 1.54% from Friday's close . Friday's regular session closed at $233.95 after hitting an all-time intraday high of $237.88 . Premarket indications on Monday showed NVDA up 0.54% at $235.21 . BNP Paribas raised its projected level to $345 from $285 on October 5, maintaining an Outperform rating, while the average analyst target sits at $327.70 . The stock hit its first record high since May on Friday, driven by the weak September jobs report (29,000 vs. 90,000 expected), which reduced October rate hike odds and lifted semiconductor stocks broadly .
(2) Market regime: NVDA is in a powerful momentum regime, having rallied approximately 23-25% from its late-July lows and posting three consecutive weekly gains . The catalyst stack is unusually strong for a single stock: a record $150 billion buyback authorization announced September 28 (the largest in Wall Street history) , completion of a $30 billion OpenAI investment , and a broad market rotation back into AI infrastructure names on expectations that Meta's Muse AI agents will drive semiconductor demand . The market cap now stands at roughly $5.72 trillion, with only about 5% separating it from becoming the first $6 trillion company in history .
(3) Price range justification: NVDA's 52-week range spans $164.27 to $237.88, and the stock has demonstrated the capacity for 3-5% daily moves around catalysts . Friday's range was $233.60 to $237.88, a 1.8% band . For a 1-day window anchored near $237.55, I am using a range of $234.00 to $242.00. The lower bound reflects the possibility of profit-taking after the record high and the fact that futures were pointing lower on Monday morning. The upper bound represents a modest 1.9% extension beyond the current price, which is consistent with recent daily ranges and the momentum from the buyback and analyst target increases. The bias is skewed slightly to the upside given the buyback floor and the psychological pull toward $240 and the $6 trillion market cap milestone.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: There are no NVDA-specific scheduled events within the 1-day window. The next major catalyst is the start of earnings season later in October, when suppliers SK Hynix and TSMC report, followed by NVDA's own GTC conference later in the month . Within the window, the primary drivers are momentum, the buyback execution, and analyst target revisions like BNP Paribas's move on October 5 .
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The stock is extended after a 23% rally from July lows and is trading near a psychological round number with the $6 trillion market cap just overhead. Michael Burry has publicly criticized Nvidia's circular financing model, and concerns about whether massive AI infrastructure spending will generate adequate returns remain unresolved . If broader tech momentum stalls or the market reassesses rate hike odds later in the week, NVDA could give back some of Friday's gains. A break below Friday's low of $233.60 would signal that the momentum has stalled.
(6) Confidence rationale: My 62% confidence reflects the strong catalyst stack-record buyback, analyst upgrades, and near-record momentum-offset by the stock's extended positioning after a 23% run and the absence of a fresh, scheduled catalyst within the 1-day window. The signal is directionally clear (mild bullish) but the magnitude is uncertain given the lack of a specific event to anchor the move.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
Published automatically when this question settled, from shared research a member chose to make public. Content on ForecastNest Insights is for research, educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.