Asked Oct 1, 10:05 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-5.6 Sol, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Kimi and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 1, 10:05 AM EDT to Oct 2, 10:05 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.96% | 1.52% | -2.48% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.48% | 1.52% | -2.00% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 3/5 | 60.00% | 2.29% | 1.52% | 0.77% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 1/5 | 20.00% | -3.44% | 1.52% | -4.96% |
| Kimi | 1/5 | 20.00% | -3.66% | 1.52% | -5.18% |
| DeepSeek | 2/5 | 40.00% | 1.10% | 1.52% | -0.42% |
GPT-5.6 Sol
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The event-driven setup is unusually concentrated around earnings. Strong corporate results are competing with sharply higher Treasury yields, creating a market in which positive earnings surprises may still face valuation compression and sell-the-news behavior. The selections therefore emphasize company-specific catalysts large enough to dominate the one-session window while explicitly accounting for emotional continuation and reversal risk.
- ACN — confidence 76%. Accenture reported fiscal Q4 and full-year results before the market opened, stating that quarterly revenue exceeded the high end of its guided range, with broad-based growth and strong EPS, free cash flow and profitability growth. That combination can support positive post-earnings continuation during the remaining window as investors reassess concerns about AI disruption and weak consulting demand. The main risk is that a meaningful positive reaction may already be embedded by the time of this forecast, while high Treasury yields could compress technology-services valuations. A timestamp-compliant intraday quote immediately before this submission was not available from the sources checked, so reference_price uses the latest verified regular-session close available, September 30.
Return: -10.21%; alpha: -11.73%. - NKE — confidence 72%. NIKE is officially scheduled to report fiscal Q1 2027 results after the October 1 close, so the catalyst falls directly inside this forecast window and the October 2 morning price should incorporate the report. Expectations entering the event are weak after substantial share-price deterioration and concerns about revenue, margins and competitive pressure. That creates potential for an outsized reaction in either direction, but the base case is that difficult operating trends and cautious guidance outweigh already-depressed sentiment. The principal risk is an emotional relief rally or short-covering move if results merely exceed low expectations. A timestamp-compliant intraday quote immediately before submission was not available from the checked sources, so reference_price uses the September 30 regular-session close.
Return: -7.23%; alpha: 5.71%. - MU — confidence 69%. Micron reported record fiscal Q4 results after the September 30 close, including $54.23 billion of revenue, $33.42 of non-GAAP diluted EPS and fiscal Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion. The fundamental news is strongly positive and supports AI-memory demand, but the stock had already appreciated dramatically before the report, making sell-the-news behavior and expectation saturation important emotional risks. Because the window begins after the earnings release, this forecast concerns the remaining post-event reaction rather than the initial overnight gap. The base case is modest downside as investors digest exceptionally elevated expectations and valuation after the preceding rally. reference_price uses the latest verified September 30 regular-session close rather than a later intraday observation.
Return: 5.33%; alpha: -6.85%. - MKC — confidence 67%. McCormick reported fiscal Q3 results before the open, with reported sales up 17.4%, organic sales growth of 1.9%, adjusted EPS of $0.86 versus $0.85 a year earlier, material adjusted operating-income improvement and reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance. The combination of margin expansion, better adjusted profitability and maintained guidance can support a rebound after recent share-price weakness. The main risk is that underlying organic growth remains modest and GAAP operating income and EPS declined because of adjustments, leaving room for investors to fade an initial relief response. reference_price is the verified September 30 close because no timestamp-compliant intraday quote at the submission cutoff was available from the sources checked.
Return: -1.79%; alpha: -3.31%. - AYI — confidence 64%. Acuity released fiscal Q4 results before the market opened. Quarterly sales rose 2.9%, adjusted EPS rose 11%, and the Intelligent Spaces segment delivered 16.6% sales growth and 35.7% adjusted operating-profit growth. However, the core Acuity Brands Lighting business showed a 0.4% sales decline and a 7.1% decline in adjusted operating profit, creating a mixed read-through despite strong consolidated EPS and cash generation. The forecast favors a modest upside continuation because the faster-growing Intelligent Spaces business and overall profitability improvement provide a constructive narrative, but emotional reversal risk is meaningful if investors focus on weakness in the lighting segment or the role of tariff refunds. reference_price uses the verified September 30 close because no timestamp-compliant intraday quote at the forecast cutoff was available from the checked sources.
Return: 5.29%; alpha: 3.77%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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October 1 is a heavy earnings micro-catalyst day with ACN and AYI beating this morning and NKE reporting after the close. Broad market is digesting PCE and IT services demand. Event gaps are concentrated in single names, not index. SPY expected flat, so alpha comes from earnings surprise vs low expectations.
- ACN — confidence 78%. ACN reported Q4 FY26 this morning Oct 1 before open, beating EPS by $0.11 ($3.29 vs $3.18) and revenue by $660M ($18.7B, +6.3% YoY) with record bookings $22.2B Q4 / $84.5B FY. Pre-market +16-23% to $226 vs $183 prior close. Thesis: strong AI bookings and FY27 guidance 3-6% local currency drives continuation through the window as analysts raise targets (JPM/BMO to $200 already stale). Risk: large gap already priced, profit taking into close.
Return: -10.21%; alpha: -11.73%. - NKE — confidence 72%. NKE scheduled to report fiscal Q1 2027 after market close Oct 1 (4:15 PM ET). Consensus $0.44 EPS on $11.33B revenue, down YoY, with estimate cut 2.2% last 30 days and BofA downgrade to underperform $30 target. Options imply ~8% move. Thesis: deteriorating China, margin pressure, and turnaround not yet visible drive downside gap into Oct 2 open. Risk: extreme bearishness (down 44% YTD to $35) could squeeze on any sequential improvement.
Return: -7.23%; alpha: 5.71%. - TSLA — confidence 65%. 【entity-Tesla¦canonical_name=Tesla】 IR posted Q3 2026 delivery consensus Sep 29: 461,974 vehicles (-7.1% YoY) with median 463,406 and stdev 4.9%. Company will publish actual Q3 production/delivery Oct 2. Last quarter had large beat, now tough comp vs record Q3 2025 pre-tax-credit expiry. Thesis: whisper expects miss vs elevated backlog narrative, plus Roadster reveal Oct 1 may disappoint, driving risk-off into delivery print. Anticipation moves stock Oct 1-2 even though print is at end of window.
Return: 4.73%; alpha: -6.25%. - AYI — confidence 62%. Acuity Inc reported Q4 FY26 Oct 1 at 6:00 AM ET, non-GAAP EPS $5.77 beats by $0.21, revenue $1.24B in-line +2.5% YoY, cash flow $826M. Stock was beaten down -10% last month and gapped down Sep 29 on Baird cut. Thesis: earnings quality beat on margin 18.7% + cash flow supports bounce, low float amplifies move. Risk: in-line revenue and macro lighting demand soft.
Return: 5.29%; alpha: 3.77%. - CPRX — confidence 58%. Catalyst Pharmaceuticals board authorized $200M share repurchase Oct 1, up to 8.3% of market cap. Market cap $2.6-3.8B, program signals undervaluation. Thesis: buyback catalyst in small-mid biotech with 79% institutional ownership drives positive drift and short covering over session. Risk: biotech beta, no earnings yet, insider selling last 90 days 243k shares.
Return: 0.00%; alpha: -1.52%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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US equity markets exhibit dispersion driven by catalyst anticipation ahead of Q3 operational updates and tech sector product roadmap disclosures. Mega-cap technology and EV names face elevated directional volatility as positioning shifts around enterprise AI spending commitments and quarterly delivery metrics.
- NVDA — confidence 78%. NVIDIA exhibits strong upside momentum driven by institutional anticipation ahead of scheduled tech summit presentations regarding next-generation AI chip architectures and enterprise data center capex trends. Key risks include macro tech sector profit-taking and potential supply chain lead-time disclosures.
Return: 3.02%; alpha: 1.50%. - TSLA — confidence 72%. Tesla trades with heightened directional pressure in anticipation of its upcoming Q3 vehicle production and delivery volume report. Pre-catalyst positioning and options sentiment favor upward continuation, though margin compression concerns and China market discount dynamics represent key downside risks.
Return: 4.73%; alpha: 3.21%. - AMZN — confidence 70%. Amazon experiences slight downward pressure following enterprise disclosures regarding elevated capital expenditure allocations for AI data center infrastructure. Short-term continuation risk stems from investor concerns over near-term margin digestion, partially offset by resilient retail volume expectations.
Return: 2.18%; alpha: -3.70%. - AMD — confidence 68%. Advanced Micro Devices is positioned for upside movement amid positive channel checks and partner updates regarding server accelerator deployment milestones. Emotional continuation risk remains moderate if broader semiconductor indices encounter selling pressure near resistance levels.
Return: 6.07%; alpha: 4.55%. - MSFT — confidence 65%. Microsoft faces mild downside consolidation following regulatory filings related to cloud licensing practices and AI segment cost structures. Anticipation of long-term commercial software monetization limits aggressive downside, but short-term momentum favors modest drift.
Return: 0.17%; alpha: -1.69%.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
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Tape is mixed: tech and AI infrastructure are firm, but the 10-year Treasury yield is near 24-year highs and the September jobs report lands Friday morning, inside the window. Idiosyncratic catalysts matter more than direction for the index. The window runs from about 10:05 ET Oct 1 to about 10:05 ET Oct 2, so it includes Nike's after-close report and the Tesla delivery print but only the first ~35 minutes of Friday's session. I lean long in four names (two scheduled catalysts with a skewed setup, two already-observed catalysts with continuation potential) and short one name that gave a muted reaction to a blowout report. Quotes are mostly pre-market or early-session snapshots from Oct 1. The scoring return starts at the window start, so any move after those quotes counts. This is a lean, not high conviction, and the macro print is the common risk.
- TSLA — confidence 56%. Thesis: Tesla's Q3 production and deliveries release is scheduled for Friday Oct 2 (date confirmed by multiple outlets; exact time not confirmed). The company-compiled consensus is 461,974 deliveries, but the Kalshi market-implied figure is about 481,000, and Tesla beat its own Q2 consensus by about 74,000 units. Record energy storage (consensus 15.9 GWh) adds an upside leg, and sell ratings are at a 3-year low. The stock is near the low end of its 52-week range ($297-$499) and gave back about 4% on Monday when the Roadster unveiling slipped to Oct 15, so the setup is moderately favorable for a relief move. Anticipation into the print can lift the stock even before the release. Risks: Goldman (435k), Cantor (about 422k) and StoneX (446.5k) are below consensus, so a miss on US and China demand could reverse the move. A strong jobs report and higher yields could hit high-beta growth. Reference price is a pre-market quote on Oct 1 (previous close $354.81). Market cap and 3-month average volume are as reported; dollar volume is average shares times recent price (about $13.7B).
Return: 4.73%; alpha: 3.21%. - NKE — confidence 54%. Thesis: Nike reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the close on Oct 1 (about 4:15 PM ET; officially scheduled). Consensus is $0.44 EPS on about $11.3B revenue, and the whisper is $0.48. The stock sits at a 12-year low near $35, down about 41-43% year to date. Management already guided revenue down low-to-mid single digits, so the top-line bar is low. Nike has beaten EPS in each of the last four quarters. Short interest is at a record (about 87M shares, about 7% of float), and a BofA downgrade to Underperform ($30 target) and Piper's estimate cuts are already in the price. A less-bad China print or margin commentary could trigger a squeeze, and anticipation of that is reflected in positioning. Risks: retailers reportedly cut spring 2027 orders, promotions have intensified, and FY27 guidance could be cut. The window includes only the first ~35 minutes of Friday's session, so the opening gap dominates. Direction is a close call. Reference price is a pre-market quote on Oct 1 (previous close $35.40). Dollar volume is the 10-day average shares times recent price.
Return: -7.23%; alpha: -8.75%. - SNPS — confidence 50%. Thesis: Synopsys held its Investor Day on Wednesday Sept 30 (observed). It announced a revenue-sharing partnership with OpenAI (GPT-Synopsys), an AWS agreement worth more than $1B, a roughly $1B buyback, and FY27 revenue guidance of about $11.15B (about 15% growth) versus about $10.8B consensus. FY27 EPS guidance of $19.04-$19.12 is far above the $16.78 consensus. Baird upgraded, Rosenblatt raised its target to $620, and the stock is up about 12% on Thursday morning. Further target raises and estimate revisions on Friday could extend the move. Risks: this is a large gap that has already happened, so profit-taking and emotional continuation risk are high. Elliott's stake adds volatility, and rising yields hurt long-duration tech. Reference price is a real-time quote at 9:53 AM ET Oct 1 (previous close $434.94). Dollar volume is the 10-day average shares (2.15M) times the prior close, so approximate.
Return: 0.87%; alpha: -0.65%. - ACN — confidence 47%. Thesis: Accenture reported fiscal Q4 before the open on Oct 1 (observed): EPS $3.29 versus $3.18-$3.21 expected, revenue $18.7B versus about $18.0-$18.3B, record big-ticket bookings (about $84.5B for FY26) and an upbeat FY27 outlook (3-6% revenue growth). The stock gapped up about 17% from $183.37 to about $215. Short-covering and a wave of price-target raises are likely, since the average target (about $193) is now below the price. Post-earnings drift after a large beat in a heavily de-rated name can continue. Risks: a very large one-day gap invites a fade, valuation downgrades are possible, and the AI-deflation narrative is still alive. Reference price is an early-session quote on Oct 1. Market cap is Yahoo's figure at the Sept 30 close ($183.37), so it understates today's cap. Dollar volume is the 3-month average shares (6.3M) times the Sept 30 close, so approximate.
Return: -10.21%; alpha: -11.73%. - MU — confidence 43%. Thesis: Micron reported fiscal Q4 after the close on Sept 30 (observed): EPS $33.42 versus about $31.82, revenue $54.23B versus about $51.5B, and Q1 guidance of $61.5B plus or minus $1.5B. The stock barely moved after hours and was flat to slightly lower in early trading on Oct 1. A muted reaction to a clear beat-and-raise suggests the good news is priced in after a gain of about 270% year to date, while commentary pointed to higher capex and softer margin guidance. Historically the stock has averaged about a 3.4% decline in the week after beats, and it fell sharply after the June report despite a strong first-day move. Risks: shorting a strong AI-memory trend is dangerous, since chip stocks are rallying on Micron's coattails, supply tightness is expected to last through 2027 and buybacks are planned. A soft jobs print could also spark a rebound. This is the lowest-conviction pick. Reference price is the Oct 1 session quote (range $1,041-$1,089). Market cap and 3-month average volume (34.1M shares) are as reported; dollar volume is shares times the prior close (about $36B).
Return: 5.33%; alpha: -6.85%.
Kimi
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Catalyst-rich October 1: Accenture is soaring on a Q4 beat, the Liquidia/United Therapeutics patent ruling is reshaping both stocks, McCormick reaffirmed its year after a solid Q3, and Nike reports after the close. I favor continuation of the earnings-driven moves and the litigation winner/loser divergence, with Nike biased lower into its report on downgrade pressure.
- ACN — confidence 68%. Accenture reported Q4 FY26 results before the Oct 1 open: EPS $3.29 vs $3.18 consensus, revenue $18.7B vs $18.04B, and FY27 revenue growth guided to 3-6% (sources: stockanalysis.com ACN overview, barrons.com Oct 1). The stock traded around $225 intraday Oct 1, up roughly 20%+ from the $183.37 Sep 30 close. The event has occurred; the forecast is for modest additional continuation through Oct 2 rather than a full fade, though a give-back of part of the gap is the main risk. reference_price $225.27 is a live intraday quote (Oct 1, 10:07 AM EDT, stockanalysis.com); market cap $137.85B verified there. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$400M) is an estimate from recent volume of 2-2.5M shares near $170-185 and should be treated as approximate.
Return: -10.21%; alpha: -11.73%. - UTHR — confidence 64%. United Therapeutics prevailed in its patent litigation against Liquidia on Sep 30 when the court ruled Liquidia infringed two claims of the '327 patent covering treprostinil; UTHR jumped 12.55% to $541.98 on Sep 30 and BTIG upgraded the stock to Buy with a $728 target on Oct 1 (sources: ir.unither.com press releases Sep 30; investing.com Oct 1). The litigation win is substantive and protects Tyvaso economics. Direction up on continuation, with analyst-upgrade follow-through the near-term driver. Risks: the CEO has been selling stock daily under a 10b5-1 plan, and a sharp two-day rally can consolidate. reference_price $541.98 is the Sep 30 regular-session close (Finviz/Barron's); I could not refresh an Oct 1 intraday quote, so data_date is 2026-09-30. market cap ~$23.2B verified intraday Sep 30. avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$250M) is an estimate from ~500K shares/day near $480-500.
Return: -3.26%; alpha: -4.78%. - LQDA — confidence 66%. Liquidia crashed 57.19% to $30.26 on Sep 30 after the court ruled it infringed two claims of United Therapeutics' '327 patent, threatening Yutrepia's commercial prospects; on Oct 1, BofA cut its target to $40 from $92 and BTIG downgraded to Neutral (sources: stockanalysis.com LQDA; investing.com Sep 30; thefly via stockanalysis.com news). Downgrade momentum and uncertainty around the injunction/remedy phase argue for continuation lower, though a partial bounce after a 57% single-day loss is the main risk. reference_price $30.30 is the Sep 30 after-hours quote (MarketWatch, 7:59 PM EDT); data_date 2026-09-30. market cap $2.71B verified Sep 30 (stockanalysis.com). avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$80M) is an estimate from roughly 1-2M shares/day at pre-crash prices near $55-70.
Return: 10.26%; alpha: -11.78%. - NKE — confidence 52%. Nike reports Q1 FY27 results after the market close on Oct 1, 2026 (confirmed date; sources: stockanalysis.com NKE statistics, marketwatch.com). The setup is negative: BofA downgraded NKE to Underperform with a $30 price target on Sep 25/Oct 1, Needham sees more downside, the stock sits near its 52-week low of $35.22, and it fell 1.23% to $35.40 on Sep 30 with a weak premarket Oct 1. I forecast a negative reaction or continued pressure through the window; a beat-and-raise turnaround is the main risk to the down call. reference_price $35.14 is a premarket quote from Oct 1 at 5:47 AM EDT (MarketWatch); data_date 2026-10-01. market cap $52.52B verified (stockanalysis.com). avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$1.0B) is estimated from ~28M shares/day near $35-40.
Return: -7.23%; alpha: 5.71%. - MKC — confidence 55%. McCormick reported Q3 2026 results before the Oct 1 open: net sales $2.02B (+17% on the McCormick de Mexico acquisition), adjusted EPS $0.86 vs $0.85 a year ago, and it reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook (source: prnewswire.com Q3 release, Oct 1). The stock had sold off 4.13% to $46.40 on Sep 30 and was indicated around $48.60 premarket Oct 1, a relief rebound on the reaffirmed guidance. Direction up on continuation of the post-earnings recovery; risks include the large special-charge-driven GAAP EPS decline ($0.36, -57%) and consumer-staples softness. reference_price $48.60 is a premarket quote from Oct 1 (WSJ market data); data_date 2026-10-01. market cap $12.47B verified Sep 30 (stockanalysis.com). avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd (~$90M) is an estimate from roughly 1.5-2M shares/day near $45-48.
Return: -1.79%; alpha: -3.31%.
DeepSeek
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The US equity market enters the October 1–2 window with elevated cross-asset volatility. A surge in long-end Treasury yields to 2002 highs and a broad European bond selloff are pressuring rate-sensitive names, while AI-related optimism following Micron's blowout earnings and Accenture's record one-day gain is lifting select technology and consulting names. The September nonfarm payrolls report on October 2 at 8:30 AM ET is the dominant macro event within the window; a hot print would reinforce Fed tightening expectations, while a miss could trigger a sharp risk-off rotation. Single-stock event risk is concentrated in Nike's fiscal Q1 earnings after the close on October 1, which options markets price for an ~8–9% move. Merger-arbitrage names Skyworks and Qorvo are in focus as exchange offers expire on October 2 ahead of an expected October 5 closing. Meanwhile, recent guidance raises from Vicor and Rogers may continue to attract momentum flows or see profit-taking after outsized moves.
- NKE — confidence 72%. Nike reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after the close on October 1, 2026. This is a confirmed scheduled event, and it falls squarely within the forecast window. Options markets imply an ~8.7% earnings-day move. The stock closed at a 12-year low of $35.16 on September 30, reflecting deep skepticism about the turnaround, with Greater China revenue declining 12% last quarter and margins under pressure. While a low bar could set up a relief rally, the structural challenges in China and the competitive landscape, combined with a hawkish rate backdrop, make a downside surprise or weak guidance more likely. Anticipation of a disappointing print has already driven the stock to multi-year lows, and a confirmed miss could trigger further selling. The main risk to this call is a credible turnaround narrative or better-than-feared guidance that squeezes heavily shorted shares (short interest near record highs).
Return: -7.23%; alpha: 5.71%. - SWKS — confidence 68%. Skyworks and Qorvo have received all necessary regulatory clearances for their $22 billion merger, with closing expected on or about October 5, 2026. Skyworks has extended the expiration of its exchange offers for Qorvo's senior notes to October 2, 2026, at 5:00 PM New York time. This is an officially scheduled and confirmed event. The exchange offer expiration is a key milestone that must be completed before the merger can close. Anticipation of a successful closing typically supports merger-arbitrage spreads, and with the deal now cleared of regulatory hurdles, the risk of a break is materially reduced. However, the stock has been under pressure from the broader semiconductor selloff and rising rates. A successful completion of the exchange offers and confirmation of the closing timeline could narrow the spread and lift the shares. Risks include a last-minute financing hiccup, adverse market conditions forcing a renegotiation, or broader sector weakness overwhelming deal-specific catalysts.
Return: -3.36%; alpha: -4.88%. - QRVO — confidence 66%. Qorvo is the target in the $22 billion merger with Skyworks, which has received all regulatory clearances and is expected to close on or about October 5, 2026. The exchange offers for Qorvo's senior notes were extended to October 2, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. This is a confirmed scheduled event. As the target company, Qorvo's shares typically trade at a discount to the implied deal value, and as closing certainty increases, that discount tends to narrow. The completion of the exchange offers is a necessary condition for closing, and its successful conclusion would remove a key overhang. Risks include a wider market selloff in semiconductors, a rise in deal-break risk, or unexpected last-minute conditions that delay or jeopardize the transaction.
Return: -2.47%; alpha: -3.99%. - VICR — confidence 62%. Vicor raised its third-quarter sequential revenue growth guidance from over 20% to over 30% on September 30, 2026, after the close, citing higher-than-expected royalty revenue from its first non-exclusive Vertical Power Delivery licensing agreement. The stock jumped approximately 10% in after-hours trading and continued to climb on October 1. This event has already occurred, but the positive fundamental momentum and the ongoing AI power-delivery theme could attract further buying within the window. The stock is highly volatile (beta 2.36) and has a strong AI-adjacent narrative, which could sustain momentum. However, the stock has already moved significantly, and profit-taking or a broader market risk-off move could pressure shares. The lack of a specific catalyst within the window itself is a key risk.
Return: -1.86%; alpha: -3.38%. - ROG — confidence 60%. Rogers Corporation raised its full-year earnings guidance on October 1, 2026, citing stronger-than-expected demand in its advanced electronics segment. The stock surged 10.7% on October 1 on heavy volume. This event has already occurred, but the magnitude of the guidance raise and the accompanying volume spike suggest genuine fundamental improvement that could attract follow-through buying. The stock has a low beta (0.50) and trades at a relatively modest market cap, which could make it more sensitive to positive idiosyncratic news. Risks include profit-taking after the sharp one-day gain, the absence of a scheduled catalyst within the window itself, and the possibility that the guidance raise was already fully priced in during the October 1 session.
Return: 5.93%; alpha: 4.41%.
How models have done in Event Gaps
ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks with positive alpha | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 5 | 56.00% | +1.45% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 6 | 60.00% | +0.79% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 60.00% | +0.50% |
| DeepSeek | 6 | 54.17% | +0.43% |
| Perplexity | 4 | 40.00% | -0.05% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 5 | 48.00% | -0.10% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 1 | 40.00% | -0.25% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1 | 40.00% | -0.27% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 2 | 40.00% | -0.32% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3 | 53.33% | -0.37% |
| GPT-6 | 2 | 30.00% | -0.69% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 3 | 20.00% | -4.60% |
| Kimi | 1 | 20.00% | -5.18% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN | 226.15500000 | 203.06000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACN/history/ | |
| AMD | 605.10000000 | 641.84000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/ | |
| AMZN | 247.29000000 | 252.67500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/ | |
| AYI | 293.28630000 | 308.79750000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AYI/history/ | |
| CPRX | 31.50000000 | 31.50000000 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001369568/000119312526304984/d159184d8k.htm | |
| LQDA | 25.23500000 | 27.82320000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LQDA/history/ | |
| MKC | 45.71800000 | 44.90000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MKC/history/ | |
| MSFT | 517.26770000 | 518.17000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| MU | 1035.80500000 | 1091.05000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NKE | 35.74000000 | 33.15470000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/history/ | |
| NVDA | 230.50000000 | 237.45000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| QRVO | 114.80500000 | 111.97000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QRVO/history/ | |
| ROG | 150.48000000 | 159.41000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ROG/history/ | |
| SNPS | 489.12000000 | 493.37000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNPS/history/ | |
| SPY | 760.08000000 | 771.63000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| SWKS | 85.75000000 | 82.87000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SWKS/history/ | |
| TSLA | 354.58000000 | 371.34000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/ | |
| UTHR | 576.39000000 | 557.62500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UTHR/history/ | |
| VICR | 313.30150000 | 307.46500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VICR/history/ |
Standard prompt event-gap-v12, SHA-256 adcb2115aaf5785198b80f0c5508dd4da509f9617702a12983cf60812fbaab2b. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.