Excluded from performance statistics: the forecast was created after its scoring window began (look-ahead bias). Historical results below are retained for audit only.
Asked Oct 10, 10:45 AM EDT (market closed). Claude Sonnet 5.5, Muse Spark 1.1, GPT-6, Perplexity, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-12 (1 trading session). Benchmark: SPY.
Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Directional return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 1.14% | -0.06% | 1.14% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3/5 | 60.00% | -0.25% | -0.06% | -0.25% |
| GPT-6 | 3/5 | 60.00% | -1.23% | -0.06% | -1.23% |
| Perplexity | 4/5 | 80.00% | 0.95% | -0.06% | 0.95% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.90% | -0.06% | -1.90% |
| Grok 4.5 | 4/5 | 80.00% | 0.14% | -0.06% | 0.14% |
| DeepSeek | 2/5 | 40.00% | -1.96% | -0.06% | -1.96% |
Claude Sonnet 5.5
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The S&P 500 closed the source session (2026-10-09) up 0.59% at 7,811.54, near its record close. The session's biggest single-stock moves came from two headlines: SpaceX's roughly $8B low-band spectrum purchase (carriers sold off, tower REITs surged) and Medicare Advantage star-rating dispersion (Humana surged). The picks mix fading overreactions (TMUS bounce, tower REIT giveback, Moderna giveback) with one continuation where an analyst re-rating gives the move fundamental support (HUM). All prices are the 2026-10-09 regular-session close, about one day old, because the market is closed on the weekend. Dollar-volume floors could not be verified for any pick, so avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is omitted for all of them.
- TMUS up — confidence 58%. Fell 13.27% in the source session, from 171.31 to 148.58, after SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide low-band spectrum and raised competition fears for the carriers. I call this a reversal with direction up. The selloff looks like a sentiment overreaction: the 28-analyst average price target was about $241 as of Oct 8, RSI(14) was about 29, and the stock closed at a new 52-week low and well below its 50-day and 200-day averages. The spectrum deal is a long-dated threat, not an immediate earnings hit, so oversold bounces are common. Risks: the stock opened at 155.51 and faded to close near the low of 147.90, so selling pressure was persistent. Further downgrades or more SpaceX mobile news could extend the drop, and high Treasury yields (about 5.2%) weigh on telecoms. Price used: official regular-session close for 2026-10-09 (148.58), about one day old. A quote page showed an after-hours print of 148.83 that evening. The 20-day average dollar volume was not verified, so it is omitted. Average share volume of about 4.9M at a price above $148 suggests the $20M floor is easily met, but I did not confirm the 20-day figure. Market cap is as shown on the quote page.
Return: 2.21%; alpha: 2.27%. - HUM up — confidence 55%. Rose 11.56% in the source session, to 431.87 from about 387.12, after CMS released 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings. Humana said 95% of its members would be in plans rated 4 stars or higher in 2027, versus 20% in 2026 and well above the 60-70% J.P. Morgan had expected. Baird upgraded the stock to Outperform and raised its target to $596 from $390. I call this a continuation with direction up. The catalyst is substantive: it changes expected 2027 revenue quality (star-rating bonus payments), and sharp analyst target increases often produce follow-through. Risks: the stock hit a new 52-week high after a roughly 60% one-year gain, so profit-taking is likely. Managed-care stocks are policy-sensitive, and the upgrade may already be priced in. Price used: official regular-session close for 2026-10-09, about one day old. The 20-day average dollar volume was not verified, so it is omitted. Market cap is from the Yahoo Finance movers page. Open, high and low for the session were not confirmed.
Return: 0.38%; alpha: 0.44%. - CCI down — confidence 50%. Rose 15.60% in the source session, to 79.64, the largest large-cap gain, as tower REITs rallied on SpaceX's spectrum purchase headline. I call this a reversal with direction down. The catalyst is partly speculative: a new satellite-to-mobile competitor needing terrestrial infrastructure could eventually add tower tenants, but no lease has been announced and the timing is long-dated. A 15% one-day move in a stable lease-based REIT looks like a headline overreaction that tends to fade. Risks: Barclays raised its target to $86 and the stock still sits below the old range high of about 100, so momentum and short covering could carry it higher. Further SpaceX or carrier network announcements could add fuel. Price used: official regular-session close for 2026-10-09, about one day old. The 20-day average dollar volume was not verified (the move came on about 14M shares versus a 3.7M three-month average), so it is omitted. Market cap is from the Yahoo Finance movers page. Open, high and low for the session were not confirmed.
Return: 1.72%; alpha: -1.66%. - AMT down — confidence 45%. Rose 9.30% in the source session, to 182.24, on the same SpaceX spectrum headline that lifted tower peers. I call this a reversal with direction down. The reasoning is the same as for CCI: the catalyst is a speculative read-through, not a signed tenant lease. This pick is correlated with the CCI pick, so the two share sector risk. Risks: a sustained re-rating of the tower sector, further positive SpaceX announcements, and lower falling-yield pressure could keep the group bid. Price used: official regular-session close for 2026-10-09, about one day old. Market cap and 20-day average dollar volume were not verified, so both are omitted. Open, high and low for the session were not confirmed.
Return: 0.18%; alpha: -0.12%. - MRNA down — confidence 42%. Rose 14.21% in the source session, to 225.00, a 52-week high, after a roughly sixfold rise in 2026. I call this a reversal with direction down. I could not confirm the specific catalyst for the Oct 9 move. Context I did find: Nasdaq 100 inclusion was announced earlier in the week, and Citi had cut its rating to sell, saying the cancer-pipeline expectations in the price were excessive. Treat the catalyst as partly speculative and momentum-driven. Risks: this is a momentum stock with strong index-inclusion demand, and a continued squeeze could extend the move. Price used: the 2026-10-09 close shown on the Yahoo Finance movers page, about one day old. The percentage change and market cap come from the same page. The 20-day average dollar volume was not verified, so it is omitted. Open, high and low for the session were not confirmed.
Return: -5.00%; alpha: 5.06%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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October 9 was a rebound day after tech selloff with S&P +0.59% and Dow +0.83% led by tower REITs on 【entity-SpaceX¦canonical_name=SpaceX】 spectrum deal and managed-care/biotech on CMS Star Ratings and mRNA cancer vaccine initiative report. Gainers were fundamentally driven by new tenancy and quality bonuses, losers by competitive threat in wireless. Overextension suggests selective reversals on Monday Columbus Day low-volume session.
- CCI up — confidence 72%. Crown Castle +15.6% to 79.64 on October 9 as top S&P 500 gainer. Catalyst is substantive: 【entity-SpaceX¦canonical_name=SpaceX】 agreement to buy 800 MHz nationwide spectrum from Grain Management for $8B creates new national tenant for towers, directly boosting lease demand. Market view from Smartkarma lists CCI as biggest gainer. Volume 14.17M vs avg 3.2M supports institutional re-rate. Previous close 68.89 implies massive gap. I used current close as reference price, verified Oct 9. Continuation up expected as tower re-rating has follow-through. Risks: REIT rate sensitivity with 10Y at 5.27%, earnings Oct 20-26.
Return: 1.72%; alpha: 1.78%. - TMUS up — confidence 68%. T-Mobile US -13.27% to 148.58 as biggest S&P 500 loser on October 9. Drop driven by SpaceX buying 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management, which had bought it from T-Mobile in August, raising fears of fourth national wireless competitor. Catalyst is substantive but sentiment overblown: TMUS already monetized spectrum, deal closed Aug 11. Market cap remains $160.3B and price >$5, avg dollar vol >$500M meets floors. Reference price is Oct 9 close, latest available at answer time. After sharp intraday low 147.9 vs 52-week low 148.12, washout suggests reversal up on oversold bounce.
Return: 2.21%; alpha: 2.27%. - HUM down — confidence 61%. Humana +11.56% to 431.87 on October 9 after CMS released 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings. Company said 95% of members in 4+ star plans vs prior year, enabling quality bonuses. Catalyst is substantive regulatory release, not rumor. Market cap $51.86B verified via stockanalysis. Price 431.87 exceeds $5 floor, avg share vol 1.6M implies ~$700M dollar vol >$20M floor. After 6.55% intraday swing and open 450.49 closing well off high 456.5, shows topping tail. Reversal down expected as quality-bonus pop already priced and CMS improvements were leaked after-hours Oct 8.
Return: 0.38%; alpha: -0.32%. - MRNA down — confidence 55%. Moderna +14.21% to 225.00 on October 9 as second-biggest S&P gainer. Catalyst per eOption market review: NYT highlighted mRNA cancer vaccines as NIH next big bet with fast-track starting December, lifting vaccine names NVAX MRNA ARCT BNTX and sequencing plays. No company-specific release, so speculative momentum. Market cap $89.83B verified, price >$5, avg volume ~10M shares >$20M dollar vol. Reference price is Oct 9 close, latest quote available before Oct 10 answer. After 723% 1-year gain, overextended. Reversal down expected as news is broad industry article, not earnings or approval.
Return: -5.00%; alpha: 5.06%. - FSLY up — confidence 58%. Fastly +15.86% to 29.30 on October 9 close per Finnhub and Yahoo Finance. Catalyst is mixed substantive/speculative: Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform with $35 target citing checks of growing contract values and early monetization of agentic AI traffic, reported by Kalkine and eOption review. No company press release Oct 8-9 except scheduling notice, so upgrade-driven. Market cap $4.67B as of Oct 9 close verified, price $29.30 >$5, avg volume 9.3M shares implies ~$270M dollar vol meets floor. Reference price is Oct 9 close, live quote at answer time. Continuation up expected as upgrade follows Q2 revenue +23% Aug 5 release and volume expansion.
Return: -9.80%; alpha: -9.73%.
GPT-6
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The October 9 session produced unusually large, news-driven divergences across telecommunications, wireless infrastructure, biotechnology, and edge-cloud technology. The S&P 500 gained approximately 0.60% and the Nasdaq Composite gained approximately 0.64%, but telecommunications suffered a sharp sector-specific repricing. The five selections are drawn from significant gainers and losers, prioritizing identifiable catalysts, substantial market capitalization, and observable trading liquidity. FSLY has a substantive analyst upgrade supported by operating evidence. CCI benefits from expectations of increased infrastructure demand following SpaceX's spectrum acquisition. NVAX shows strong speculative and momentum-driven buying. TMUS and ASTS face different degrees of competitive disruption from SpaceX's expanding Starlink Mobile strategy. The forecast favors continuation in FSLY and CCI, reversal in NVAX and TMUS, and continuation of weakness in ASTS. The primary risk is that market participants rapidly reassess the SpaceX competitive threat or take profits in Friday's winners. October 10 is Saturday, so the latest available quotes are October 9 after-hours transactions; no October 10 regular-session prices exist. The forecast targets the October 12 regular-session close. All three screening thresholds were checked where verifiable. Exact 20-session average dollar-volume calculations could not be independently completed and are reported as null rather than estimated. Market-cap figures are reported from October 9 sources. Historical OHLC figures use completed regular sessions and split-adjusted, non-dividend-adjusted closing prices. The experiment's eventual primary score is the arithmetic mean of five signed close-to-close returns, with direction accuracy reported separately; neither can be determined before the target close.
- FSLY up — confidence 69%. Fastly ranks first because its October 9 rally was accompanied by a substantive improvement in the investment thesis rather than an unexplained speculative price surge. Oppenheimer upgraded the stock from Perform to Outperform with a $35 price target, citing improving deal sizes, cybersecurity cross-selling, and opportunities to monetize AI-agent traffic. Fastly previously reported second-quarter revenue of $183.3 million, representing approximately 23% year-over-year growth. The new analyst thesis suggests third-quarter revenue could approach the upper end of management's $184 million to $190 million guidance. The stock advanced 15.86% during the source session and closed at $29.30, near the upper portion of its $26.54 to $30.19 daily range. Its five-session return was approximately 13.52%, confirming positive short-term momentum, although the previous four sessions were relatively subdued. The October 9 move therefore represents a significant acceleration rather than a uniformly rising five-day trend. The stock remains below its September 23 intraday high of $31.33, leaving overhead resistance. Continuation is favored because the analyst upgrade introduces a potentially persistent earnings-revision narrative that may attract additional institutional interest. The main risks are profit-taking after a large one-day advance, a valuation already reflecting strong growth expectations, and a failure to confirm the anticipated sales acceleration. The latest verified quote is $29.40 in after-hours trading on October 9 at approximately 19:59 EDT, around 15 hours and 46 minutes before the supplied prediction timestamp. This is not an October 10 live quote. Market capitalization was approximately $4.67 billion at the October 9 close. The exact trailing 20-session average dollar volume was not independently verified, although substantial recent trading activity is documented. Catalyst sources: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-fastly-stock-rallying-today-93CH-4873453 and https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-fastly-fsly-stock-rocketing-215510278.html.
Return: -9.80%; alpha: -9.73%. - CCI up — confidence 62%. Crown Castle ranks second because the October 9 rally reflects a potentially meaningful change in expectations for telecommunications infrastructure demand. SpaceX's acquisition of low-band wireless spectrum from Grain Management triggered speculation that Starlink Mobile will require additional terrestrial infrastructure, potentially creating leasing opportunities for tower operators. Crown Castle advanced 15.60% to $79.64, making it one of the session's major liquid gainers. The stock opened at $74.32, reached $79.79, and closed near the session high, indicating sustained buying pressure rather than an early spike followed by broad selling. Its five-session return was approximately 19.87%, reversing a weaker September trend. The October 9 close also finished near the highest price observed over the preceding 20 completed trading sessions. The catalyst is substantive insofar as the spectrum transaction is real, but Crown Castle's eventual financial benefit remains speculative because incremental tower leasing revenue has not been established. Continuation is favored over one trading session because sector repricing may require additional institutional portfolio adjustments. Risks include profit-taking after an exceptional advance, uncertainty about Starlink's ultimate infrastructure requirements, and the possibility that satellite networks reduce rather than increase demand for portions of existing tower capacity. The latest verified quote is $79.71 in October 9 after-hours trading at approximately 19:59 EDT, roughly 15 hours and 46 minutes before the supplied prediction timestamp. October 9 market capitalization was approximately $33.88 billion. The exact 20-session average dollar volume was not independently verified, although recent daily turnover is substantial. News sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-european-telecom-stocks-slide-spacex-spectrum-deal-rattles-sector-2026-10-09/ and https://www.barrons.com/articles/att-verizon-tmobile-stock-drop-spacex-buy-the-dip-46454489.
Return: 1.72%; alpha: 1.78%. - NVAX down — confidence 57%. Novavax ranks third because the source session demonstrated exceptional buying activity, but the recent trading pattern also raises the probability of an immediate reversal. NVAX gained 15.80% on October 9, closing at $12.75 after opening at $11.17 and reaching $13.04 intraday. Approximately 19 million shares traded, substantially above the reported 50-day average of approximately 5.8 million shares. The company ended a three-session losing streak and approached its October 5 high of $13.39. Its five-session return reached approximately 21.89%, indicating a powerful but volatile upward trend. The stock also gained approximately 20% on October 5 before declining sharply on October 6, illustrating the instability of recent directional moves. The latest source-session rally is confirmed, but a specific new corporate announcement explaining the entire October 9 advance was not independently established. Accordingly, the catalyst is classified as speculative or momentum-driven rather than verified fundamental news. I favor a one-session reversal because the stock has repeatedly experienced large advances followed by sharp retracements, and Friday's close remains near recent resistance. Strong short-interest exposure creates an important counterargument: renewed short covering could drive another upward session. Other risks to the reversal thesis include previously unrecognized vaccine-commercialization news and continuing biotechnology-sector momentum. The latest verified quote is $12.69 in October 9 after-hours trading at approximately 19:59 EDT, about 15 hours and 46 minutes before the supplied prediction timestamp. October 9 market capitalization was approximately $2.10 billion. The exact trailing 20-session average dollar volume was not independently verified; the published 20-day average share volume was 7,448,968 shares, which is not a substitute for the required dollar-volume measure. Sources: https://www.marketwatch.com/data-news/novavax-inc-stock-outperforms-competitors-on-strong-trading-day-d0aee175-d280a9832af4 and https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvax/statistics/.
Return: -0.71%; alpha: 0.77%. - TMUS up — confidence 64%. T-Mobile ranks fourth because its October 9 decline appears disproportionately large relative to the immediate financial impact of the announced competitive threat. Shares fell 13.27% to $148.58, with the decline largely attributed to SpaceX's acquisition of low-band wireless spectrum and its expanded ambitions for Starlink Mobile. The underlying development is substantive: spectrum ownership could strengthen SpaceX's ability to challenge incumbent telecommunications operators. However, implementing nationwide terrestrial and satellite-integrated wireless services requires significant capital, infrastructure deployment, commercial partnerships, and regulatory approval. Citi analysts have argued that material disruption to established carriers may not occur until at least 2029. T-Mobile entered October 9 following four consecutive positive sessions, but Friday's collapse produced a five-session return of approximately -9.20%. The stock opened at $155.51, reached $156.89, fell to $147.90, and closed at $148.58, near its session low and the lowest level of the observed 20-session range. Such a close is bearish technical evidence and creates a substantial risk of additional selling. Nevertheless, the forecast calls for a reversal because the magnitude and speed of the repricing could attract institutional buyers once the immediate competitive threat is distinguished from its longer-term implications. The primary risks are additional SpaceX announcements, further analyst estimate cuts, and continued forced or momentum-driven selling. The latest verified quote is $148.75 in October 9 after-hours trading at approximately 19:59 EDT, around 15 hours and 46 minutes before the supplied prediction timestamp. October 9 market capitalization was approximately $159.38 billion. The exact 20-session average dollar volume was not independently calculated, although the stock's market capitalization and observed trading activity strongly indicate substantial institutional liquidity. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-european-telecom-stocks-slide-spacex-spectrum-deal-rattles-sector-2026-10-09/ and https://www.barrons.com/articles/att-verizon-tmobile-stock-drop-spacex-buy-the-dip-46454489.
Return: 2.21%; alpha: 2.27%. - ASTS down — confidence 61%. AST SpaceMobile ranks fifth because the October 9 loss occurred within an already deteriorating short-term trend and was reinforced by a substantive competitive development. The company is developing a satellite-based direct-to-device cellular broadband network, making SpaceX's acquisition of additional wireless spectrum strategically relevant. SpaceX's growing ability to combine satellite connectivity with terrestrial wireless capabilities may intensify competitive pressure on AST SpaceMobile. ASTS declined 10.48% on October 9, closing at $50.97. It opened at $54.46, traded as high as $55.85, dropped to $47.57, and recovered modestly before the close. Its five-session return was approximately -12.80%, confirming weakness extending beyond Friday's headline. The October 9 low also marked the lowest point in the observed 20-session range. The close was above the intraday low, which provides some evidence of buyers attempting to absorb selling pressure, but remained substantially below the opening price. The competitive threat is substantive, although the direct financial consequences for AST SpaceMobile have not been quantified. A continuation of weakness is favored because ASTS is a capital-intensive, development-stage business with comparatively high sensitivity to changes in perceived competitive positioning and financing conditions. Risks include short covering, positive satellite deployment announcements, clarification of the competitive landscape, and speculative demand for satellite-related equities. The latest verified quote is $50.92 in October 9 after-hours trading at approximately 19:59 EDT, around 15 hours and 46 minutes before the supplied prediction timestamp. The current market-cap figure reported by the source is approximately $19.83 billion, although its separate historical market-cap series reports a different October 9 figure, so the precise historical market capitalization is not fully reconciled. Either reported figure exceeds the $1 billion floor. The exact trailing 20-session average dollar volume was not independently calculated. Sources: https://www.investors.com/news/spacex-buys-wireless-spectrum-starlink-elon-musk-verizon-att-t-mobile-tumble/ and https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-european-telecom-stocks-slide-spacex-spectrum-deal-rattles-sector-2026-10-09/.
Return: 0.97%; alpha: -0.91%.
Perplexity
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The October 9 session combined a broad rebound with highly idiosyncratic single-stock catalysts: tower REITs and Humana surged on company- or sector-specific news, while wireless carriers and satellite-direct-to-cell names sold off on SpaceX's spectrum acquisition. For the next session, I favor continued follow-through in fundamentally supported gainers, a technical rebound in deeply sold telecom carriers, and continued pressure in AST SpaceMobile, whose negative catalyst is structural rather than a transient headline.
- CCI up — confidence 62%. Crown Castle rose 15.66% on October 9 as SpaceX's low-band spectrum acquisition pressured wireless carriers and lifted tower operators, which may benefit from infrastructure demand; CNBC reported CCI at $79.71 after hours on October 9, the latest quote I could verify. The catalyst is substantive in that it changes the competitive landscape for carriers, though the tower benefit is partly speculative. The move was a powerful reversal from a prior downtrend and closed near the session high, supporting continuation. I could not verify a precise 20-day average dollar volume; the session's 14.39 million shares at about $79.68 implies roughly $1.15 billion traded, comfortably above the liquidity floor for that session.
Return: 1.72%; alpha: 1.78%. - HUM up — confidence 58%. Humana gained 11.13% after improved 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings for its largest contract, a substantive fundamental catalyst. Robinhood showed HUM at $436.03, the freshest quote I could verify, while MarketBeat reported a $51.74 billion market cap at the October 9 close. The stock closed well below its intraday high of $456.50, so some of the day's enthusiasm faded, but the ratings improvement is durable rather than purely speculative. I could not verify a precise 20-day average dollar volume; the session's 4.99 million shares at about $430.84 implies roughly $2.15 billion traded, well above the liquidity threshold for that session.
Return: 0.38%; alpha: 0.44%. - TMUS up — confidence 55%. T-Mobile fell 13.27% after SpaceX agreed to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio, raising fears of a new competitive threat. The catalyst is substantive, but the one-day 13.27% decline is severe for a company with a $159.38 billion market cap, creating scope for a partial rebound once the initial repricing settles. Robinhood showed TMUS at $148.76 on October 10, essentially flat versus the $148.58 close, suggesting the selling had stabilized. I could not verify a precise 20-day average dollar volume; the session's roughly 19.03 million shares at $148.58 implies about $2.83 billion traded, far above the liquidity floor for that session.
Return: 2.21%; alpha: 2.27%. - T up — confidence 54%. AT&T declined 9.81% in the same SpaceX spectrum-driven wireless selloff. The news is substantive, but AT&T's scale, $151.986 billion market cap, and very high liquidity make a 9.81% single-day decline likely to attract mean-reversion flows if no new negative information emerges. Yahoo Finance showed T at its October 9 close of $22.18, while Robinhood's latest quote was $22.24 on October 10, a modest stabilization. I could not verify a precise 20-day average dollar volume; the session's 150.217 million shares at $22.18 implies about $3.33 billion traded, comfortably above the liquidity floor for that session.
Return: 1.40%; alpha: 1.46%. - ASTS down — confidence 52%. AST SpaceMobile fell 10.48% after SpaceX's spectrum acquisition removed a strategically important asset AST had reportedly pursued and reinforced competitive pressure from SpaceX's direct-to-cell plans. This is a substantive strategic setback, not merely sentiment, and the stock closed at a new 52-week low of $50.97 on roughly 54 million shares, about four times its reported average volume. Yahoo Finance's latest available quote was $50.93 after hours on October 9, essentially unchanged, with a $19.834 billion intraday market cap. I could not verify a precise 20-day average dollar volume; the session's 54.1195 million shares at $50.97 implies about $2.76 billion traded, far above the liquidity floor for that session.
Return: 0.97%; alpha: -0.91%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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The broader market experienced a volatile session on October 9, 2026, with major indexes closing mixed as investors digested sector-specific news. Telecommunications stocks were under intense pressure following SpaceX's spectrum acquisition from Grain Management, which fueled fears of intensified competition and drove massive selloffs in legacy carriers and T-Mobile. Conversely, healthcare managed strong single-stock moves based on CMS Star Ratings.
- HUM down — confidence 75%. Humana jumped sharply on news that CMS raised its largest Medicare Advantage contract to 4 stars, reinstating quality bonus payments. However, the stock faded significantly from its opening highs of $450.49 to close at $431.87. Since the financial benefit is a 2028 story, the initial surge appears overextended, setting up a reversal as the market digests the delayed payoff. Price quoted is the October 9 regular session close from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 0.38%; alpha: -0.32%. - TMUS up — confidence 70%. T-Mobile suffered a severe 13.27% drop, closing at a 52-week low of $148.58 after SpaceX acquired a nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, stoking competition fears. Despite the negative catalyst, the stock is deeply oversold with a 14-day RSI in extreme territory. We expect a modest relief bounce (reversal) as the initial panic subsides. Price quoted is the October 9 regular session close from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 2.21%; alpha: 2.27%. - ALHC down — confidence 65%. Alignment Healthcare plunged over 13% after CMS cut its largest California contract from 4 stars to 3.5 stars, ending its eligibility for quality bonus payments. Unlike Humana, this is an immediate structural blow to earnings power. We expect this downward momentum to continue as analysts revise models lower. Price quoted is the October 9 regular session close from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 7.22%; alpha: -7.16%. - T down — confidence 60%. AT&T dropped nearly 10% on the SpaceX spectrum acquisition news. While arguably a more stable incumbent than pure-play mobile operators, the structural threat of a new capitalized competitor in the telecom space generally compresses legacy multiples. We anticipate continuation of the bearish trend. Price quoted is the October 9 regular session close from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 1.40%; alpha: -1.34%. - VZ down — confidence 60%. Verizon also suffered heavily alongside peers, down 8.75% on the SpaceX spectrum news. The entire US carrier group is re-rating lower based on the threat of a well-funded fourth major player entering the market. Expect the selling pressure to persist. Price quoted is the October 9 regular session close from Yahoo Finance.
Return: 2.71%; alpha: -2.65%.
Grok 4.5
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Source session closed mixed with S&P up 0.6 percent; tower REITs and biotech/healthcare surged on SpaceX spectrum deal and Medicare/cancer catalysts while major wireless carriers sold off sharply on competition fears. Expect partial mean-reversion in oversold telcos and selective continuation in high-conviction gainers into the next session.
- CCI up — confidence 68%. Crown Castle rose 15.60 percent on the SpaceX spectrum acquisition news that is viewed as constructive for tower demand; the move is substantive rather than purely speculative given the clear infrastructure read-through. Continuation higher is favored as the catalyst remains intact and volume confirmed the breakout. Reference price is the October 9 regular-session close (market closed Saturday).
Return: 1.72%; alpha: 1.78%. - MRNA up — confidence 65%. Moderna advanced 14.21 percent on Nasdaq-100 inclusion effective that day plus reports of an NIH national cancer-vaccine initiative; both are substantive flow and pipeline catalysts. Continuation is preferred given the mechanical index demand and ongoing oncology momentum. Reference price is the October 9 regular close.
Return: -5.00%; alpha: -4.94%. - HUM up — confidence 62%. Humana gained 11.56 percent after CMS released improved 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings restoring quality-bonus eligibility for a large share of members; the catalyst is substantive and directly linked to future revenue. Continuation favored on the regulatory upgrade and subsequent analyst target raises. Reference price is the October 9 regular close.
Return: 0.38%; alpha: 0.44%. - TMUS up — confidence 58%. T-Mobile fell 13.27 percent on SpaceX acquisition of the 800 MHz spectrum T-Mobile itself had sold months earlier, raising competition fears; the sell-off appears overdone relative to the long regulatory timeline and existing partnership. Reversal higher is favored as the market may have discounted worst-case disruption too quickly. Reference price is the October 9 regular close.
Return: 2.21%; alpha: 2.27%. - T up — confidence 55%. AT&T declined 9.81 percent in sympathy with the SpaceX spectrum deal that stoked broader wireless competition concerns; the move looks speculative and sector-wide rather than company-specific. Reversal higher is preferred given AT&T’s large-cap defensive profile and the multi-year path to any material Starlink impact. Reference price is the October 9 regular close.
Return: 1.40%; alpha: 1.46%.
DeepSeek
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The October 9, 2026 session was dominated by two macro catalysts: SpaceX's agreement to acquire nationwide low-band spectrum from Grain Management for approximately $8 billion, which crushed incumbent telecom carriers and simultaneously lifted tower REITs on the thesis that SpaceX will need to lease tower infrastructure; and the CMS 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings release, which created massive dispersion among health insurers. Humana's dramatic star ratings turnaround (95% of members in 4+ star plans for 2027 versus 20% prior year) represents a substantive fundamental catalyst likely to sustain upward momentum, while Alignment Healthcare's sharp star ratings deterioration represents a genuine negative catalyst likely to continue pressuring shares. The SpaceX spectrum deal is more nuanced: tower REITs rallied on speculation about incremental leasing demand that has not been confirmed, making the move vulnerable to reversal, while AST SpaceMobile appears oversold after being outbid for spectrum it had pursued, with at least one analyst arguing its strategic value was actually raised by the deal. T-Mobile's selloff on the SpaceX threat appears fundamental and likely to continue as the market reprices competitive risk.
- HUM up — confidence 78%. Humana surged 11.56% on October 9 after reporting a dramatic Medicare Advantage Star Ratings turnaround: 95% of members will be in plans rated 4 stars or higher for 2027, up from just 20% in 2026, with 42% in 4.5-star plans. This reverses a multi-year deterioration that had crushed the stock from over $500 to the $300s. The catalyst is substantive and fundamental: higher star ratings directly translate to bonus payments from CMS, improving margins and competitive positioning. Baird upgraded HUM to Buy on the news. The stock broke out to a 20-day high on nearly triple average volume, confirming institutional accumulation. Risks include the 20-day range being wide and the possibility of profit-taking after a one-day 11.6% gain, but the magnitude of the fundamental improvement argues for continuation. Reference price is the October 9 regular-session close from Fidelity; markets are closed so this is the latest available quote. Market cap and dollar volume verified via stockanalysis.com and Fidelity.
Return: 0.38%; alpha: 0.44%. - CCI down — confidence 65%. Crown Castle jumped 15.60% on October 9 in sympathy with the SpaceX spectrum deal, as investors speculated that SpaceX's entry into mobile services will require massive tower leasing. However, this thesis is speculative: SpaceX has not announced tower lease agreements, and its Starlink direct-to-cell strategy may reduce rather than increase reliance on traditional tower infrastructure. The stock closed at $79.64 after opening at $74.32, a wide intraday range of $73.75-$79.79, indicating significant uncertainty. CCI has been in a downtrend for most of 2026, falling from the $100s to the $60s before this one-day spike. The 20-day range shows the stock at its absolute high, suggesting an overextended move vulnerable to reversal. No substantive company-specific news supports the rally. Reference price is the October 9 regular-session close; markets are closed. Market cap and dollar volume verified via stockanalysis.com and Fidelity (10/90-day avg volume 3M/4M).
Return: 1.72%; alpha: -1.66%. - TMUS down — confidence 75%. T-Mobile crashed 13.27% on October 9, its worst day since 2013, after SpaceX agreed to acquire 14 MHz of nationwide low-band 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management for a reported $8 billion. This is the same spectrum portfolio T-Mobile sold to Grain in August 2026, meaning SpaceX now owns spectrum that T-Mobile previously deemed non-core, and will use it with Starlink to become a nationwide mobile carrier. The catalyst is substantive and represents a genuine competitive threat to incumbent carriers. The stock closed at $148.58, near its 20-day low of $147.90, on nearly 19 million shares (well above average). The 5-day return is -9.2%, confirming a sharp downtrend. Risks include a potential bounce after such a sharp selloff and the possibility of analyst upgrades arguing the threat is overblown, but the fundamental repricing of competitive risk argues for continuation. Reference price is the October 9 regular-session close; after-hours showed $148.76 (+0.12%). Market cap and dollar volume verified via stockanalysis.com.
Return: 2.21%; alpha: -2.15%. - ASTS up — confidence 60%. AST SpaceMobile fell 10.48% on October 9 after SpaceX outbid it for the Grain Management spectrum portfolio that ASTS had been pursuing. However, the selloff may be an overreaction: Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov maintained a Buy rating and argued the deal actually raises ASTS's strategic value, since SpaceX's entry validates the direct-to-cell market and may accelerate partnership opportunities. The stock closed at $50.97 after touching a low of $47.57, bouncing off that level to close above it, which suggests buyers stepped in at the lows. The 5-day return is -12.8%, and the stock is near the bottom of its 20-day range ($47.57-$61.66). Risks include continued competitive pressure from SpaceX and the possibility that ASTS's independent path is structurally impaired, but the magnitude of the decline and the analyst pushback suggest a reversal is plausible. Reference price is the October 9 regular-session close; after-hours showed $50.95. Market cap and dollar volume verified via stockanalysis.com.
Return: 0.97%; alpha: 1.03%. - ALHC down — confidence 70%. Alignment Healthcare plummeted 13.38% on October 9 after the CMS 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings revealed that the percentage of its members in 4+ star plans fell dramatically, continuing a multi-year deterioration. This is a substantive negative catalyst: lower star ratings reduce bonus payments from CMS, directly harming margins and competitive positioning. The stock closed at $7.55, just above its 20-day low of $6.01, on 26 million shares (far above average volume). The 5-day return is -5.98%, and the stock is down over 60% year-to-date. Unlike Humana, which saw a dramatic improvement, ALHC's star ratings deteriorated, and the market is repricing the company's growth trajectory. Risks include a potential oversold bounce, but the fundamental deterioration in a key profitability driver argues for continuation. Reference price is the October 9 regular-session close; markets are closed. Market cap and dollar volume verified via stockanalysis.com and Morningstar.
Return: 7.22%; alpha: -7.16%.
How models have done in Extreme Movers + OHLC
No eligible settled runs are available at this horizon up to and including this forecast, so there is no overall statistics chart to show. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. Later runs are not included in this historical snapshot. Original results remain available for audit.
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALHC | 7.54500000 | 8.09000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALHC/history/ | |
| AMT | 182.24000000 | 182.56000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMT/history/ | |
| ASTS | 50.96500000 | 51.46000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASTS/history/ | |
| CCI | 79.64000000 | 81.01000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/history/ | |
| FSLY | 29.30000000 | 26.43000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FSLY/history/ | |
| HUM | 431.87000000 | 433.50000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HUM/history/ | |
| MRNA | 225.00000000 | 213.74000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/ | |
| NVAX | 12.75000000 | 12.66000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVAX/history/ | |
| SPY | 778.57000000 | 778.10000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| T | 22.18000000 | 22.49000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/history/ | |
| TMUS | 148.58000000 | 151.87000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TMUS/history/ | |
| VZ | 41.65000000 | 42.78000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VZ/history/ |
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Calculation: extreme-movers-ohlc-v1.
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