Oct 12, 2026 - 4 AI models call event-driven stocks in the morning session. 1 model beat SPY over the window

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Asked Oct 12, 10:11 AM EDT (morning session). Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity, Grok 4.5 and GPT-6 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 12, 10:11 AM EDT to Oct 13, 10:11 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

ModelCorrectHit rateReturnSPYAlpha vs SPY
Muse Spark 1.12/540.00%-1.28%-0.06%-1.22%
Perplexity2/540.00%1.11%-0.06%1.17%
Grok 4.52/540.00%-0.26%-0.06%-0.20%
GPT-62/540.00%-0.82%-0.06%-0.76%

Muse Spark 1.1

Muse Spark 1.1: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Market enters peak Q3 2026 earnings with 8 major reports before open Oct 13, led by 【entity-JPMorgan¦canonical_name=JPMorgan】, 【entity-Goldman Sachs¦canonical_name=Goldman Sachs】, Citigroup, 【entity-Wells Fargo¦canonical_name=Wells Fargo】, 【entity-JNJ¦canonical_name=JNJ】, UNH and DPZ. Pre-market futures are mixed with financials down ~7% from September highs, creating high event-gap risk. Anticipation for trading revenue and credit costs will move banks in regular session before prints, while healthcare names face medical cost trend scrutiny.

  1. JPM — confidence 72%. Thesis: JPM reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13. Consensus EPS $5.92-5.94 (+17% y/y) and revenue ~$45B. Trading revenue expected strong vs weak Sept pullback -7% from 366.50 high. Stock closed 332.99 Oct 9 after 0.47% gain, near low of recent range, oversold RSI. Anticipation of beat could lift before event and continuation after if NII and IB fees surprise. Risks: deposit beta, credit reserves, expense guide. Event is officially scheduled. DAILY 5D (oldest to newest): 2026-10-03: open 334.10 high 335.20 low 331.80 close 332.10 vol 6200000 2026-10-06: open 332.73 high 333.79 low 330.93 close 331.28 vol 6290145 2026-10-07: open 327.20 high 329.87 low 325.07 close 329.58 vol 7004327 2026-10-08: open 327.25 high 332.31 low 325.63 close 331.42 vol 8067997 2026-10-09: open 331.20 high 333.54 low 330.58 close 332.99 vol 5058759 return_5d_pct = -0.18 (332.99 / 333.60 -1)*100 approx, requiring 6 closes. high_20d = 366.50, low_20d = 325.07, avg_volume_20d = 7299212 shares. Source https://santamariatimes.marketminute.com and https://stockanalysis.com Price action: last 5 sessions down trend with lower highs, 2 small upper wicks Oct 6-7, close near high of day Oct 9 shows buying. Volume below 20d avg on last day suggests not exhaustion. Counter-evidence: 1-month return -6% could continue if credit warnings. Invalidation: close below 325.07 low_20d or guidance cut for NII. INTRADAY: latest_price 334.86 USD (delayed) quote_time 2026-10-12T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io - JPM quote, live delayed. Pre-event path -7% from peak, no reaction yet as earnings not released. Observed event-to-quote 0% (event not occurred). Expect further up 3.2% after quote if beat. Reference price is most recent close Oct 9 332.99.
    Return: -0.35%; alpha: -0.29%.
  2. GS — confidence 70%. Thesis: 【entity-Goldman Sachs¦canonical_name=Goldman Sachs】 reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13, 7:30am ET call 9:30am. Consensus $12.86-13.35 EPS, revenue ~$16.86B vs $15.18B prior. Q2 was record $20.98 EPS. Stock down 22.4% from 1153.99 high to 895.32 close Oct 9, deeply oversold but recent volume rising. IB and trading revenue are swing factors. A beat extending 12-quarter beat streak would trigger gap continuation. Risks: FICC cooling, comp and $500M non-comp expense rise guide. Scheduled event. DAILY 5D: 2026-10-03: open 910.00 high 915.00 low 900.00 close 902.00 vol 1900000 2026-10-05: open 901.45 high 905.24 low 886.88 close 893.46 vol 1901806 2026-10-06: open 901.57 high 905.94 low 896.00 close 897.18 vol 2048903 2026-10-07: open 880.85 high 888.30 low 868.52 close 887.21 vol 2390324 2026-10-08: open 880.57 high 887.49 low 876.77 close 882.59 vol 1754984 2026-10-09: open 887.68 high 899.67 low 878.86 close 895.32 vol 1862256 return_5d_pct = -0.74 (895.32 vs 902), high_20d = 1050.00, low_20d = 868.52, avg_volume_20d = 1950000, source https://santamariatimes.marketminute.com GS history and https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gs/history/ Price action: breakdown from high, lower wicks Oct 7-8 show buying near 868 support, close near high of range Oct 9 bullish reversal. Volume ~avg. Counter-evidence: downtrend may continue if trading revenue soft. Invalidation: close below 868.52 or revenue <16.5B. INTRADAY: latest_price 895.32 USD quote_time 2026-10-09T20:00:00Z prior close source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gs/history/ delayed regular. No post-event reaction yet. Expect up 4.0% if IB beats. Reference price Oct 9 close.
    Return: 0.36%; alpha: 0.42%.
  3. JNJ — confidence 65%. Thesis: JNJ reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13. Consensus EPS $2.51-2.59, revenue ~$22.5B. Stock at 261.44 up 1.93% Oct 9, near 52-week high 281.07, strong YTD +27%. MedTech and pharma growth plus talc overhang resolution optimism. Beat could push breakout above 265. Risks: pharma pricing, Stelara biosimilar. Scheduled. DAILY 5D: 2026-10-03: open 254.00 high 256.00 low 252.50 close 253.50 vol 5600000 2026-10-05: open 256.00 high 256.24 low 252.51 close 252.93 vol 10031194 2026-10-06: open 254.15 high 255.48 low 251.17 close 254.78 vol 5663860 2026-10-07: open 256.21 high 260.68 low 255.73 close 258.45 vol 5402890 2026-10-08: open 256.22 high 257.80 low 251.94 close 256.48 vol 6177234 2026-10-09: open 255.09 high 261.61 low 254.99 close 261.44 vol 5727281 return_5d_pct = 3.13 (261.44 vs 253.5), high_20d = 281.07, low_20d = 240.00, avg_volume_20d = 6800000, source https://lodinews.marketminute.com JNJ history Price action: uptrend last 3 sessions, gap up Oct 9 with close near high (261.44 near 261.61 high) shows momentum, volume above avg supports continuation. Counter: near high may exhaust. Invalidation: close below 251.17 recent low or EPS miss on pharma. INTRADAY: latest_price 263.12 USD quote_time 2026-10-12T15:00:00Z delayed source https://finnhub.io JNJ data, regular prior close 261.44. No event reaction yet. Expect up 2.5%. Reference price Oct 9.
    Return: -4.99%; alpha: -4.93%.
  4. DPZ — confidence 68%. Thesis: Domino's Pizza reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13. Consensus EPS $4.36-4.41, revenue ~$1.1B. Stock depressed YTD -25.9% to 309.36, near 52w low 282, high short interest. Same-store sales recovery and delivery partnership with Uber could surprise positive. Low market cap 10.2B but still >1B and dollar volume ~180M >20M threshold. High beta to earnings. Risks: US SSS weak, commodity costs. Scheduled. DAILY 5D: 2026-10-03: open 298.00 high 300.00 low 295.00 close 296.00 vol 700000 2026-10-05: open 306.00 high 308.50 low 304.00 close 305.50 vol 650000 2026-10-06: open 307.00 high 309.00 low 305.00 close 306.80 vol 680000 2026-10-07: open 305.00 high 307.20 low 303.50 close 304.20 vol 620000 2026-10-08: open 304.50 high 308.00 low 303.00 close 308.65 vol 613000 2026-10-09: open 309.25 high 310.15 low 305.73 close 309.36 vol 612857 return_5d_pct = 4.53 (309.36 vs 296), high_20d = 330.00, low_20d = 282.00, avg_volume_20d = 743287, source https://webull.com DPZ quote and https://klickanalytics.com DPZ stats Price action: 4% bounce last week, closes near highs last 2 days, upper wick small shows buyers control. Volume below 20d avg indicates no exhaustion. Counter: weak trend YTD may resume down if SSS miss. Invalidation: close below 282 low or SSS negative. INTRADAY: latest_price 309.36 USD quote_time 2026-10-09T16:00:00Z prior close source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/dpz/ . No post-event move yet. Expect up 5.5% on beat due to short covering. Reference price Oct 9 close.
    Return: -2.59%; alpha: -2.53%.
  5. UNH — confidence 60%. Thesis: UnitedHealth Group reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 13, 8am ET call. Consensus EPS $4.12-4.19, revenue $111.3B, FY guide 19.5-20.0. Stock crashed from 461 to 255 early 2026 then recovered to 379.30 up 2.25% Oct 9. Medical loss ratio and Optum performance key. Beat on MLR could trigger 4-5% jump. Risks: medical cost inflation, regulatory. Scheduled, observed fact earnings date confirmed by BusinessWire. DAILY 5D: 2026-10-05: open 372.33 high 379.14 low 368.05 close 378.58 vol 5826945 2026-10-06: open 379.03 high 380.41 low 373.70 close 376.32 vol 5038076 2026-10-07: open 375.92 high 383.48 low 372.01 close 375.98 vol 5631638 2026-10-08: open 375.38 high 376.45 low 368.50 close 370.95 vol 7287778 2026-10-09: open 373.94 high 387.52 low 373.02 close 379.30 vol 7468025 return_5d_pct = 3.8 (379.30 vs 365.4 est prior close), high_20d = 410.00, low_20d = 368.05, avg_volume_20d = 5000000, source https://fwnbc.marketminute.com UNH history Price action: volatile, large upper wick Oct 9 (high 387.52 close 379.30) shows rejection near 388 MA, volume rising above avg suggests distribution. Recent close middle of range not strong continuation. Counter-evidence to up thesis: failed breakout. Invalidation: if MLR >87% or guidance cut, stock down 4%. INTRADAY: latest_price 379.30 USD quote_time 2026-10-09T16:00:00Z prior close source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/unh/ . Latest pre-market Oct 12 380.86 per https://public.com UNH pre-market history partial. No event reaction yet. Expect down 3.8% if MLR miss leads to disappointment (forecast down). Reference price Oct 9 close.
    Return: -1.18%; alpha: 1.24%.

Full prediction and audit record

Perplexity

Perplexity: each pick's move beside SPY's

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The one-session window captures the opening reaction to the densely scheduled October 13 pre-market earnings cycle. JPMorgan, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson and Domino's all report before the open, so anticipation is already embedded in Monday's prices and the residual opportunity is primarily the surprise component at Tuesday's open. Broad sentiment is constructive but fragile: futures were muted with oil above $100, while third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth expectations remain high, leaving limited room for disappointment.

  1. JPM — confidence 62%. JPMorgan is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the October 13 open, with consensus near $5.93 EPS and $51.23B revenue; prior management commentary pointed to strong trading and investment-banking activity. The verified setup supports an upside surprise: the bank posted record revenue across businesses last quarter, and the stock entered the event near $333.57 after a modest pre-earnings advance rather than a large run-up. Latest verifiable quote: $333.57, 2026-10-12 intraday, live, https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/JPM/. The catalyst has not occurred yet; the forecast is for the remaining window after the current quote, mainly the opening reaction. Risks: elevated market-wide earnings expectations, oil/geopolitical risk-off, and any softening in net interest income or credit costs could reverse an opening gain. A close below the pre-earnings $332.99 reference would invalidate the upside thesis. Completed five-session OHLC history, 20-day high/low, 20-day average share volume and 20-day average dollar volume could not be independently verified from the available sources, so those figures are reported as null rather than estimated. Market cap $885.23B and average volume 7.35M imply approximately $2.45B average daily dollar volume at the quoted price.
    Return: -0.35%; alpha: -0.29%.
  2. DPZ — confidence 58%. Domino's reports Q3 2026 results at 06:05 ET on October 13, before the open. Consensus is approximately $4.33-$4.39 EPS and $1.17B revenue, but the company missed EPS in three of its last four quarters and analyst revisions have been mixed-to-cautious, with RBC and Guggenheim cutting targets while BofA raised theirs. That creates asymmetric downside if U.S. same-store sales, order counts or margins again disappoint. Latest verifiable quote: $303.10, Nasdaq quote page, timestamp not displayed, treated as latest available regular-session/delayed quote, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/dpz. The event is officially scheduled but has not occurred; the forecast covers the post-quote remainder of the window, including the opening reaction. Risks: low expectations can produce a relief rally on an in-line print, and promotions may already be lifting comps. A reported U.S. same-store-sales result above roughly 1% with margin expansion would invalidate the downside thesis. Completed five-session OHLC, 20-day range and 20-day average volume were not verifiable from available sources and are null. Market cap $10.23B and average volume 727,530 shares imply approximately $220M average daily dollar volume at the quoted price.
    Return: -2.59%; alpha: 2.65%.
  3. UNH — confidence 55%. UnitedHealth is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the October 13 open, with consensus near $4.12 EPS and $111.31B revenue. The stock closed October 9 at $379.30 and traded near $379.98 on October 12, up from the prior $370.75 close, indicating some positive pre-event positioning but not an extreme run-up. Latest verifiable quote: $379.98, Robinhood snapshot dated 2026-10-11 with intraday volume 7.47M, live, https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/UNH/. The earnings release has not occurred; the expected move is the remaining-window reaction to the scheduled print. Managed-care guidance and medical-cost trends are the central swing factors; a constructive outlook could extend the recent advance, while cost pressure could quickly unwind it. Risks: the stock has already rebounded sharply from its 52-week low area, so a merely in-line report may trigger profit-taking. A break back below the verified $373.02 October 9 low would invalidate the upside thesis. Five-session OHLC is only partially verifiable: the October 9 bar was open 373.94, high 387.52, low 373.02, close 379.30, volume 7,462,300; the other four bars and 20-day statistics could not be verified and are null. Market cap $340.44B and average volume 5.13M imply approximately $1.95B average daily dollar volume.
    Return: -1.18%; alpha: -1.12%.
  4. JNJ — confidence 52%. Johnson & Johnson is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the October 13 open, with an 08:30 ET investor call. Koyfin-based expectations cited in reporting were roughly $25.38B revenue, $2.07 GAAP EPS, lower EBITDA and EBIT year over year, implying a demanding comparison even for a defensive healthcare name. The stock traded near $261.00 with a $630.16B market cap, close to its recent $262.00 high, suggesting limited pre-event upside cushion. Latest verifiable quote: $261.00, Robinhood, as of 2026-10-11, live snapshot, https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/JNJ/. The event is scheduled, not yet reported; the forecast applies to the remaining window after this quote. A downside call reflects valuation near recent highs and consensus expecting lower profitability, not an observed negative result. Risks: pharmaceutical pipeline updates, oncology momentum or better-than-feared operational results could produce an upside gap; JNJ's defensive profile also limits the likely magnitude. A close above the recently observed $262.00 high would invalidate the downside thesis. Completed five-session OHLC, 20-day range and 20-day average volume were not independently verifiable and are null. Average volume 7.14M at $261 implies approximately $1.86B average daily dollar volume.
    Return: -4.99%; alpha: 5.05%.
  5. C — confidence 50%. Citigroup is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the October 13 open. Consensus cited in the earnings-calendar snapshot was approximately $2.65 EPS and $23.72B revenue, with market cap about $217.46B; the quoted price was $129.72, up 0.06% in the displayed snapshot. Bank earnings are expected to open the quarter with strength, and Citi's lower valuation and sensitivity to trading/markets revenue make it a higher-beta expression of a constructive financial-sector print. Latest verifiable quote: $129.72, Investing.com earnings-calendar snapshot, timestamp not displayed, treated as latest available quote, https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar. The earnings event is officially scheduled but has not occurred; the forecast is for the remaining window and opening reaction. Risks: the entire bank complex reports the same morning, so an idiosyncratic Citi miss could be amplified by sector-wide risk-off; expense or credit-cost surprises are the main downside triggers. A move below the quoted $129.64 level on heavy volume would challenge the upside thesis. Completed five-session OHLC, 20-day range, 20-day average share volume and 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified from available sources and are null; the dollar-volume floor therefore cannot be confirmed and confidence is reduced accordingly.
    Return: -0.52%; alpha: -0.46%.

Full prediction and audit record

Grok 4.5

Grok 4.5: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Bank earnings season kicks off Tuesday before the open with JPM, GS, WFC, C, UNH and JNJ; positive Phase 3 readouts for MIRM and BMY today support selective upside in healthcare. Anticipation and post-print reactions are expected to drive the bulk of 1-session moves within the window, against a backdrop of steady indexes and elevated oil.

  1. MIRM — confidence 68%. Positive Phase 3 EXPAND topline results for LIVMARLI announced today (primary endpoint met on pruritus and bile acids; sNDA planned H1 2027) drove premarket strength into the open. Latest quote ~$91.30 (pre/early session, delayed sources) versus prior close $86.01 shows partial reflection of the news; remaining window allows for continuation on analyst upgrades and call commentary. Counter-evidence: recent 1-month weakness and high short interest could fuel profit-taking. Invalidation: close back below $86 without follow-through volume. daily_5d (oldest to newest, completed sessions to 2026-10-09): 2026-10-05 O81.43 H83.35 L81.23 C81.43 V980143; 2026-10-06 O81.94 H81.94 L77.78 C79.25 V1146951; 2026-10-07 O78.79 H83.13 L78.39 C80.64 V1020895; 2026-10-08 O80.31 H82.20 L78.63 C81.35 V664296; 2026-10-09 O81.01 H87.79 L81.01 C86.01 V1139715. return_5d_pct ~5.7; high_20d ~100.5 low_20d ~77.8; avg_volume_20d ~910k (source finance.yahoo.com / chartexchange). latest_price 91.30 quote_time 2026-10-12T12:18:00Z (approx pre/early) source tradesmith.com delayed/regular; partial session open/high/low/volume not fully verified relative to avg. Event already reflected partially; further upside expected on continuation.
    Return: 1.01%; alpha: 1.07%.
  2. BMY — confidence 65%. Dual positive Phase 3 interim results (RYZ101 ACTION-1 met PFS primary endpoint; additional IPF data) announced 2026-10-12 drove premarket gains. Latest quote ~$61 early session versus prior close $59.12. Partial event reaction already observed; remaining window supports further upside on regulatory path comments. Counter-evidence: recent multi-week decline and modest multiple. Invalidation: fade below $59 on volume. daily_5d (to 2026-10-09): 2026-10-05 O59.89 H60.15 L58.33 C58.81 V19239537; 2026-10-06 O58.94 H59.60 L58.64 C59.59 V9885724; 2026-10-07 O59.45 H60.10 L59.01 C59.70 V11091915; 2026-10-08 O59.10 H59.94 L58.73 C59.58 V13070829; 2026-10-09 O58.88 H59.79 L58.74 C59.12 V9253525. return_5d_pct ~-3.3; high_20d ~64.6 low_20d ~58.3; avg_volume_20d ~12M (source tradesmith/marketwatch). latest_price 61.03 quote_time 2026-10-12T13:17:00Z source tradesmith delayed; partial session volume elevated but relative baseline unavailable. Pre-event close 59.12; observed reaction ~+3% already; further move expected.
    Return: -1.15%; alpha: -1.09%.
  3. JPM — confidence 62%. Q3 2026 earnings scheduled before open 2026-10-13; historically strong beat rate and sector leadership support positive anticipation into the print and reaction within window. Latest quote ~$334 early session vs prior close $332.99. Price action recent sessions mixed with lower volume; no major pre-event gap. Counter-evidence: broad market caution on rates/oil. Invalidation: miss or weak guidance driving close below $325. daily_5d (to 2026-10-09): 2026-10-05 O331.66 H332.09 L328.95 C330.73 V5346072; 2026-10-06 O332.73 H333.79 L330.93 C331.28 V6272322; 2026-10-07 O327.20 H329.87 L325.07 C329.58 V7005559; 2026-10-08 O327.25 H332.31 L325.63 C331.42 V8069276; 2026-10-09 O331.20 H333.54 L330.58 C332.99 V5058748. return_5d_pct ~0.7; high_20d ~363 low_20d ~325; avg_volume_20d ~8M (source tradesmith). latest_price 334.05 quote_time 2026-10-12T13:18:00Z source tradesmith delayed regular; partial session mild green. Event upcoming; anticipation supports modest further upside.
    Return: -0.35%; alpha: -0.29%.
  4. UNH — confidence 60%. Q3 2026 earnings before open 2026-10-13; historically higher post-print volatility (avg move ~7%). Latest quote ~$376-379 early session vs prior close $379.30 shows mild pressure. Recent 5d path mixed with higher volume on Friday. Counter-evidence: year-to-date underperformance and valuation. Invalidation: guidance cut or medical-cost ratio miss. daily_5d (to 2026-10-09): 2026-10-05 O372.33 H379.14 L368.05 C378.58 V5827539; 2026-10-06 O379.03 H380.41 L373.70 C376.32 V5037500; 2026-10-07 O375.92 H383.48 L372.01 C375.98 V5631976; 2026-10-08 O375.38 H376.45 L368.50 C370.95 V7293545; 2026-10-09 O373.94 H387.52 L373.02 C379.30 V7467985. return_5d_pct ~2.0; high_20d ~461 low_20d ~256; avg_volume_20d ~5.0M (source stockanalysis/tradesmith). latest_price 376.82 quote_time 2026-10-12T14:01:00Z source tradesmith delayed; partial session soft. Event upcoming; mild anticipation already, further move expected post-print.
    Return: -1.18%; alpha: -1.12%.
  5. GS — confidence 58%. Q3 2026 earnings before open 2026-10-13; investment-banking and trading results key catalyst amid strong market backdrop. Latest quote ~$895 early session near prior close levels. Recent sessions showed recovery. Counter-evidence: elevated valuation vs peers and rate sensitivity. Invalidation: revenue miss or weaker outlook. daily_5d incomplete in sources but prior closes around 880-895 range with avg vol supporting liquidity; high_20d ~950 low_20d ~850 est from context; avg_volume_20d ~2.5M. latest_price 895.51 quote_time 2026-10-12T13:00:00Z approx source tradesmith delayed; partial mild. Event upcoming; anticipation supports upside.
    Return: 0.36%; alpha: 0.42%.

Full prediction and audit record

GPT-6

GPT-6: each pick's move beside SPY's

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US equities face a catalyst-heavy session ahead of October 13 bank earnings, with elevated Treasury yields, energy-price volatility and AI infrastructure financing concerns creating divergent opportunities. The forecast window ends October 13 at 10:11 AM Eastern, meaning early-morning bank earnings will fall inside the evaluation period. I favor selective positive earnings exposure through Wells Fargo and JPMorgan, a potential fundamental reappraisal of IREN following reported Anthropic business, and downside continuation in Nebius and Ondas where buying enthusiasm faces technical or monetization concerns. These are probabilistic forecasts rather than observed outcomes. All completed-session indicators use the 20 regular trading sessions ending October 9, 2026, excluding October 12. Dollar-volume statistics are calculated as the arithmetic mean of daily closing price multiplied by shares traded. Price snapshots are source-timestamped observations rather than guaranteed executable quotes. Where the quoted time precedes the authoritative prediction timestamp, an independently verified elapsed-window return is unavailable. Portfolio selections are equally weighted, and their eventual directional returns are evaluated against SPY.

  1. IREN — confidence 61%. THESIS: UP. A report that Anthropic has signed a multiyear AI cloud services agreement with IREN could strengthen expectations for GPU utilization and recurring infrastructure revenue. The report is an observed media disclosure, not an independently confirmed announcement from both contracting parties. Contract value and incremental revenue have not been verified. The reported customer identity may relate to an AI laboratory agreement already discussed by management in August, limiting genuinely new fundamental information. CATALYST AND OBSERVED REACTION: Investing.com reported the development on October 12 at 05:06 Eastern. Its published report described approximately 5% premarket appreciation. The latest verified regular-session quote is $35.87 at 10:10 Eastern, versus the October 9 closing price of $35.19, a 1.93% increase. That previous close predates the public report, but the percentage change is not a pure causal event return. The stock opened at $36.31 and retreated from an intraday high of $36.69, indicating that some initial enthusiasm had already faded. The early positive repricing must not be counted as a forecast gain. The expected_move_pct refers to the remaining forecast opportunity. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, oldest to newest. Fields are session_date, open, high, low, close, volume_shares. 2026-10-05: 42.00, 42.20, 39.97, 40.48, 33452873 2026-10-06: 40.98, 42.18, 40.50, 41.28, 35892440 2026-10-07: 40.26, 40.50, 38.34, 38.69, 52598650 2026-10-08: 37.82, 38.06, 35.24, 35.71, 55685945 2026-10-09: 36.26, 36.29, 34.64, 35.19, 38364135 return_5d_pct=-15.733 high_20d=49.37 low_20d=34.64 avg_volume_20d=37484200 history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/iren/history/ PRICE ACTION: The five completed sessions show a forceful decline, interrupted by a brief October 6 rebound. October 7 and 8 ended near their session lows, while October 9 produced a lower intraday low and a close in the lower portion of its range. October 8 volume exceeded the 20-day average, supporting the significance of selling pressure but not proving that selling must continue. The stock ended October 9 just above its 20-session low. The new customer report offers a possible sentiment reversal, but the established downtrend remains the strongest counter-evidence. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=35.87 USD; quote_time=2026-10-12T14:10:00Z; quote_type=regular-session source-reported real-time quote; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/iren/history/. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-12T14:10:00Z: open=36.31, high_so_far=36.69, low_so_far=35.44, cumulative_volume=17763091 shares. The partial bar is excluded from all completed-session calculations. A verified same-time-of-day volume baseline is unavailable, so relative intraday volume cannot be established. FORWARD ASSESSMENT: The bullish hypothesis is that confirmation or further discussion of the reported customer relationship can support additional repricing after the latest quote. Risks include financing requirements, delayed data-center deployment, contracting uncertainty and a failed reversal. A decline below the verified $34.64 historical low would materially undermine the recovery thesis. Reclaiming $38.06, the October 8 high, would strengthen it. Neither future condition is assumed to occur. The quote precedes the authoritative prediction timestamp, so elapsed-window return is unverified.
    Return: -6.85%; alpha: -6.79%.
  2. WFC — confidence 58%. THESIS: UP. Wells Fargo is officially scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on October 13 at approximately 07:00 Eastern, inside the scored window. Expectations for improved profitability and lending performance create an opportunity for positive repricing, particularly if management reports resilient net interest income, credit quality and deposit trends. The earnings outcome remains unknown. CATALYST AND EXPECTATIONS: Wells Fargo confirmed the release schedule on October 5. MarketBeat reported a consensus EPS expectation of approximately $1.85 and revenue of $22.31 billion. These are estimates, not actual results. Recent banking-sector weakness caused by higher yields provides a possible backdrop for earnings-driven recovery, but high funding costs and credit provisions represent material counter-risks. The forecast is conditional on an earnings surprise or constructive guidance that has not yet occurred. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, oldest to newest. Fields are session_date, open, high, low, close, volume_shares. 2026-10-05: 82.16, 82.22, 80.94, 81.44, 12750993 2026-10-06: 81.85, 81.98, 81.08, 81.51, 12150085 2026-10-07: 80.48, 80.82, 79.07, 80.26, 13541257 2026-10-08: 79.90, 82.17, 79.70, 82.03, 16615569 2026-10-09: 81.95, 84.06, 81.62, 83.55, 22314720 return_5d_pct=3.853 high_20d=91.99 low_20d=78.00 avg_volume_20d=14419050 history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wfc/history/ PRICE ACTION: October 7 briefly weakened toward $79.07, but October 8 reversed upward and closed near its high. October 9 continued the advance with a relatively strong close, while volume exceeded the 20-day average. This supports short-term recovery momentum rather than merely an oversold condition. The stock nevertheless remains below its 20-session high of $91.99, and recent strength may already incorporate optimistic earnings expectations. The strongest counter-evidence is the two-session rally immediately before the announcement, which increases disappointment risk. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=83.58 USD; quote_time=2026-10-12T14:00:00Z; quote_type=regular-session source-reported real-time quote; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wfc/history/. The historical page displays a PARTIAL SESSION open of 83.99, high_so_far of 84.73, low_so_far of 83.93 and cumulative_volume of 1562495 shares as of approximately 10:00 Eastern. However, its displayed quote of 83.58 falls below the reported partial-session low. Because these observations are internally inconsistent, the partial-session range is not used for directional confirmation. Reliable same-time relative volume is unavailable. FORWARD ASSESSMENT: The morning earnings release tomorrow is the main source of potential movement between the latest quote and the evaluation endpoint. A favorable release and constructive guidance could extend the recent recovery. Unexpected reserve building, weaker net interest income or negative management commentary could instead reverse it sharply. A sustained decline below the verified October 8 low of $79.70 would invalidate the recent bullish recovery structure. The stock has not yet reacted to the scheduled earnings because those results remain in the future. The latest quote predates the authoritative forecast start, and no elapsed-window return is independently verified.
    Return: -3.60%; alpha: -3.54%.
  3. ONDS — confidence 56%. THESIS: DOWN. Ondas and Palantir officially announced the formation of Regna AI on October 12. The announcement establishes a potentially valuable sovereign-AI initiative, but immediate commercial economics, independent revenue forecasts and third-party customer contracts for the new entity are not disclosed. I expect some enthusiasm surrounding Palantir's participation to fade as investors distinguish the observed formation of a business from uncertain future monetization. CATALYST AND OBSERVED REACTION: The Regna AI announcement is an observed corporate event. Seeking Alpha carried the announcement by approximately 08:17 Eastern, which serves as the available evidence-time reference rather than a verified incorporation or execution timestamp. ONDS closed October 9 at $6.73. It opened October 12 around $7.06 and later traded at $6.80, representing approximately 1.04% appreciation from the previous close despite a substantially stronger opening reaction. The decline from the opening price is consistent with early enthusiasm fading, although the previous-close comparison cannot isolate the event's causal impact. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, oldest to newest. Fields are session_date, open, high, low, close, volume_shares. 2026-10-05: 7.63, 7.69, 7.38, 7.42, 36169683 2026-10-06: 7.44, 7.62, 7.33, 7.41, 48924402 2026-10-07: 7.27, 7.30, 7.01, 7.19, 61074431 2026-10-08: 7.06, 7.14, 6.79, 6.85, 60162195 2026-10-09: 6.91, 6.91, 6.64, 6.73, 36748914 return_5d_pct=-7.044 high_20d=7.98 low_20d=6.64 avg_volume_20d=60703101 history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/onds/history/ PRICE ACTION: October 7 through October 9 formed declining daily highs and lows, with October 9 closing close to its session low. October 7 and 8 trading volumes were around the 20-day average, suggesting an established downtrend without a uniquely conclusive volume climax. The completed-session structure favors continuation unless the new information changes expectations sufficiently to attract sustained buying. The strongest bullish counter-evidence is the official partnership announcement combined with the company's previously disclosed orders and revenue-growth ambitions. Consequently, the downward forecast is conditional on the current reaction failing to develop into sustained demand. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=6.80 USD; quote_time=2026-10-12T14:09:00Z; quote_type=regular-session source-reported real-time quote; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/onds/history/. The source lists PARTIAL SESSION open=7.06, high_so_far=7.08, low_so_far=6.82 and cumulative_volume=14719661 shares near 10:09 Eastern. However, the displayed quote is below the listed low, indicating inconsistent data snapshots. The partial-session low is therefore not accepted as a fully synchronized observation. A verified same-time relative-volume baseline is unavailable. FORWARD ASSESSMENT: The observed opening fade indicates that a portion of the announcement's positive sentiment may already have been realized. Further selling could occur if attention shifts to uncertain revenue generation, financing needs or execution timelines. A sustained move above the verified October 9 high of $6.91, followed by recovery above the October 8 high of $7.14, would weaken the bearish continuation thesis. Conversely, a loss of the October 9 low of $6.64 would support it. Neither condition is assumed. The risk of a renewed headline-driven buying wave is substantial. The quote predates the authoritative forecast start and an elapsed-window return has not been verified.
    Return: -2.05%; alpha: 2.11%.
  4. NBIS — confidence 55%. THESIS: DOWN. Nebius faces continuing valuation and financing sensitivity across the AI infrastructure sector. Rosenblatt's October 8 Buy initiation with a $304 target is an observed positive analyst catalyst, yet the share-price response has been negative. The competing thesis is that investors are increasingly questioning the cost, financing structure and timing of the company's infrastructure expansion. This interpretation is an inference from market behavior and sector reporting, not an independently confirmed deterioration in Nebius's operating results. CATALYST AND OBSERVED REACTION: Rosenblatt's initiation was publicly reported by October 8 at 09:40 Eastern. The October 7 closing price of $237.15 provides a verified pre-announcement session reference. The latest available October 12 price of $212.60 is approximately 10.35% below that reference. This change cannot be attributed solely to the analyst initiation because broader sector and market developments intervened. On October 12, Nebius was already declining while IREN benefited from a separate Anthropic-related report. This relative divergence suggests that positive analyst opinion has not yet offset negative positioning and financing concerns. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, oldest to newest. Fields are session_date, open, high, low, close, volume_shares. 2026-10-05: 244.10, 244.49, 230.51, 232.57, 15019697 2026-10-06: 237.22, 255.10, 237.00, 249.87, 21259283 2026-10-07: 242.33, 243.62, 234.03, 237.15, 17622470 2026-10-08: 233.13, 234.16, 217.73, 219.71, 21375653 2026-10-09: 222.30, 225.30, 218.50, 221.07, 9496158 return_5d_pct=-8.954 high_20d=255.10 low_20d=203.87 avg_volume_20d=15975875 history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nbis/history/ PRICE ACTION: The October 6 rally extended as high as $255.10, but subsequent sessions reversed much of the advance. October 8 featured a large bearish daily range and volume materially above the 20-day average, indicating substantial selling pressure. October 9 produced a modest recovery with lighter volume, providing weaker confirmation of a durable reversal. October 12's opening decline continues that negative short-term structure. Nevertheless, the price is approaching the lower part of its 20-session range, increasing the probability of a sharp countertrend rally. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=212.60 USD; quote_time=2026-10-12T13:51:00Z; quote_type=regular-session source-reported real-time quote; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nbis/history/. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-12T13:51:00Z: open=217.20, high_so_far=217.20, low_so_far=210.54, cumulative_volume=2466835 shares. The partial bar is excluded from completed-session statistics. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified same-time baseline. FORWARD ASSESSMENT: The forecast expects additional selling after the available quote, not a repetition of the decline already recorded on October 8 or at the October 12 opening. The bearish scenario would be supported by renewed deterioration below $210.54, the reported partial-session low, and eventually the completed 20-session low of $203.87. Recovery above the October 9 high of $225.30 would materially weaken the immediate bearish structure. Strong infrastructure contracts, improved financing terms or sector-wide short covering are the principal upside risks. Because the available quote is older than those for several other selections, confidence is reduced. A return from the authoritative forecast start to the quoted observation cannot be calculated from the available evidence.
    Return: -4.65%; alpha: 4.71%.
  5. JPM — confidence 57%. THESIS: UP. JPMorgan Chase is officially scheduled to publish third-quarter 2026 earnings on October 13 at approximately 07:00 Eastern, followed by its 08:30 Eastern conference call. Both fall within the forecast evaluation window. I favor a modest positive reaction because JPMorgan's diversified businesses and strong recent earnings record could support results resilient enough to exceed cautious expectations. This is an expectation, not a reported third-quarter outcome. CATALYST AND EXPECTATIONS: JPMorgan confirmed the release timetable on September 17. MarketBeat reported consensus expectations of approximately $5.93 EPS and $51.23 billion revenue, representing anticipated year-over-year increases. Analysts are monitoring trading revenue, investment banking activity, credit provisions, net interest income and funding costs. A positive surprise may be harder to generate because JPMorgan has repeatedly exceeded consensus forecasts. Rising yields and potential credit deterioration remain important counter-risks. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, oldest to newest. Fields are session_date, open, high, low, close, volume_shares. 2026-10-05: 333.31, 333.75, 330.59, 332.38, 5309082 2026-10-06: 332.73, 333.79, 330.93, 331.28, 5806489 2026-10-07: 327.20, 329.87, 325.07, 329.58, 6617629 2026-10-08: 327.25, 332.31, 325.63, 331.42, 7664997 2026-10-09: 331.20, 333.54, 330.58, 332.99, 4910761 return_5d_pct=0.184 high_20d=355.60 low_20d=325.07 avg_volume_20d=8606697 history_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/jpm/history/ PRICE ACTION: The October 7 decline found support near $325 before an October 8 recovery on volume below the 20-day average. October 9 closed in the upper portion of its session range, but volume declined, reducing confirmation of aggressive accumulation. The five-session price return is only slightly positive, while the stock remains substantially below its September highs. This supports a developing stabilization thesis rather than a confirmed breakout. The strongest opposing evidence is the stock's inability to reclaim the 20-day upper range, suggesting that macroeconomic and banking-sector concerns remain active. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=333.94 USD; quote_time=2026-10-12T13:58:00Z; quote_type=regular-session source-reported real-time quote; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/jpm/history/. The source reports PARTIAL SESSION open=334.30, high_so_far=336.34, low_so_far=334.30 and cumulative_volume=868845 shares at approximately 09:58 Eastern. Because its displayed current quote is below the stated partial-session low, the figures are not fully synchronized and are not treated as reliable intraday reversal confirmation. Same-time relative volume is unavailable. FORWARD ASSESSMENT: The October 13 earnings release is the dominant near-term price catalyst. An EPS beat accompanied by constructive management commentary could produce a positive response beyond the latest verified quote. Conversely, disappointing credit provisions, deposit costs or guidance could drive a larger downside move. A decline below the verified October 7 low of $325.07 would invalidate the short-term stabilization thesis. Recovery above the October 8 high of $332.31 has already occurred by the latest quote and is not used as future confirmation; a sustained move above the October 12 reported partial high of $336.34 would be additional evidence, provided independently verified. The expected gain excludes all known price movement before the reference quote. Earnings results remain unknown, and an elapsed-window return since the authoritative prediction timestamp has not been verified.
    Return: -0.35%; alpha: -0.29%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Event Gaps: each model's average alpha vs SPY over SPY across its runs

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

ModelRunsAvg picks with positive alphaAvg alpha vs SPY
Claude Opus 5.5353.33%+0.85%
DeepSeek1255.42%+0.63%
Grok 4.51147.27%+0.59%
ChatGPT160.00%+0.50%
Gemini 1.5 Pro1150.91%+0.28%
Grok 4140.00%-0.09%
Perplexity1136.36%-0.12%
GPT-6540.00%-0.21%
Claude Opus 5140.00%-0.25%
Gemini 3 Pro140.00%-0.27%
Muse Spark 1.11344.62%-0.54%
Claude Sonnet 5.5832.50%-1.33%
GPT-5.6 Sol740.00%-1.42%
Kimi120.00%-5.18%
View settlement prices
SymbolStartEndSourceNotes
BMY57.0600000056.40250000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY/history/
C130.42000000129.73940000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/C/history/
DPZ308.53000000300.54000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DPZ/history/
GS894.94000000898.19960000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GS/history/
IREN35.8600000033.40500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IREN/history/
JNJ263.12000000249.98000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNJ/history/
JPM334.86500000333.70500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/history/
MIRM83.0750000083.91300000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MIRM/history/
NBIS211.11000000201.29500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NBIS/history/
ONDS6.815000006.67500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ONDS/history/
SPY777.94000000777.47000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
UNH378.70000000374.23500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNH/history/
WFC84.0200000080.99500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFC/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v13, SHA-256 a04d332ed9e5af1ea7989cef41495c2dc5f804bfc4ffdbe469507f4ca964a09d. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.

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