Asked Oct 13, 10:41 AM EDT (morning session). Perplexity, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Muse Spark 1.1, Grok 4.5, GPT-6 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 13, 10:41 AM EDT to Oct 14, 10:41 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | 5/5 | 100.00% | 0.55% | -0.65% | 1.19% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 4/5 | 80.00% | 1.70% | -0.65% | 2.34% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 5/5 | 100.00% | 2.34% | -0.65% | 2.99% |
| Grok 4.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -2.10% | -0.65% | -1.45% |
| GPT-6 | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.15% | -0.65% | -0.50% |
| DeepSeek | 4/5 | 80.00% | -1.08% | -0.65% | -0.43% |
Perplexity
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The one-session window is dominated by the start of Q3 earnings season, a fragile AI/semiconductor trade after reports of Chinese memory progress, and elevated oil amid Middle East supply risk. I favor short exposure to a large bank that reportedly missed estimates, continued downside in memory-exposed semiconductors, and long exposure to oil, an imminent Apple product event, and ASML's scheduled earnings. The main risk is a broad risk-on reversal or short covering in technology.
- JPM — confidence 62%. JPMorgan reported Q3 results before the open on 2026-10-13; contemporaneous reporting described the result as a rare earnings miss, while Reuters reported profit rose on investment banking and trading. The distinction matters: the reported miss is an observed fact from market coverage, whereas the size and persistence of the negative reaction are inference. The stock's last fully verified regular-session close was 332.99 USD on 2026-10-09; a live intraday quote was not independently verified at answering time, so reference_price uses that prior close and the forecast applies from the current traded price over the remaining window. The thesis is that post-earnings de-rating and sector read-through from higher yields and softer trading-revenue expectations continue through the session. Counter-evidence: Reuters reported higher profit and strength in investment banking and trading, and financials had already been under pressure, limiting incremental downside. The latest completed daily bar available was 2026-10-09 (open 331.20, high 333.54, low 330.58, close 332.99, volume 5,058,748); five-session OHLCV history, 20-day high/low, and 20-day average volume could not be verified from the sources available, so those figures are null. The avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd field is a derived approximation from the latest displayed session volume and price, not an independently verified 20-day average. Invalidation: a reclaim of the reported pre-earnings area near 333.60 or a broad financial-sector rally would undermine the downside thesis.
Latest price: 332.99 USD (prior regular-session close, 2026-10-09T16:00:00-04:00); source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/jpm/; live intraday quote unavailable at answering time.
Return: -0.70%; alpha: 1.35%. - MU — confidence 58%. Micron is the most direct listed proxy for the reported Chinese memory-technology advance by ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which helped drive a roughly 2.7% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on 2026-10-13 premarket/early coverage. This is an observed sentiment and competitive-expectation shock, not a new Micron earnings event; Micron's own Q4 results were released on 2026-09-30. The thesis is continued de-risking of a high-beta memory name after a parabolic run, with the 52-week high at 1,255.00 versus a last verified close of 1,029.00 on 2026-10-09. Strong counter-evidence is that Micron's fundamentals remain exceptionally strong by the displayed data, analysts retain a Strong Buy stance, and the stock had already bounced after an earlier OpenAI-related selloff; a relief rally is plausible. The latest completed daily bar available was 2026-10-09 (open 1,054.17, high 1,054.17, low 1,017.00, close 1,029.00, volume 19,921,446); five-session OHLCV, 20-day range, and 20-day average volume were not independently verifiable and are null. The dollar-volume field is derived from latest displayed volume and price, not a verified 20-day mean. Invalidation: stabilization above roughly 1,054, the last verified session open/high, with sector-wide recovery would negate the continuation thesis.
Latest price: 1,029.00 USD (prior regular-session close, 2026-10-09T16:00:00-04:00); source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mu/; live intraday quote unavailable at answering time.
Return: -0.97%; alpha: 1.61%. - XOM — confidence 55%. ExxonMobil benefits from the observed oil-price surge: Zacks reported Brent settled at 106.65 USD, up 1.8%, and WTI at 93.74 USD, up 2.0%, on 2026-10-12 amid Middle East security concerns. This is an occurred macro catalyst rather than a company-specific announcement; XOM's next earnings are estimated for 2026-10-30. The thesis is that energy leadership and crude momentum support further upside in XOM during the window, particularly if geopolitical headlines keep supply-disruption risk elevated. The verified live quote was 174.02 USD at 2026-10-13T10:02:00-04:00, up 1.09% on the session, with the stock near its 52-week high of 176.41; that proximity is the principal reversal risk, alongside any oil-price retreat. The latest completed daily bar available was 2026-10-12 (open 173.45, high not separately verified beyond the displayed day range, close 174.02 prior-session basis is inconsistent, so full five-bar history, 20-day range, and 20-day average volume are null). The dollar-volume field is derived from the displayed intraday volume and price and is not a verified 20-day average. Invalidation: a fall back below the session low of 172.65 or a material crude-oil selloff would challenge the upside case.
Latest price: 174.02 USD (live market-open quote, 2026-10-13T10:02:00-04:00); source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/xom/.
Return: 0.65%; alpha: 1.30%. - AAPL — confidence 52%. Apple is scheduled to host its 'Welcome Home' product event at 9:00 PM Beijing time on 2026-10-13, equivalent to 9:00 AM EDT, with coverage anticipating a smart-home hub, HomePod mini update, and updated Apple TV. Because the event occurs during the forecast window and follows recent reports of iPhone 18 Pro component-order cuts, the setup is event-driven rather than fundamentals-driven: anticipation can support the shares, while a poorly received launch could reverse the move. The last fully verified regular-session close was 340.97 USD on 2026-10-12, near the 52-week high of 345.34, implying limited valuation cushion; the product news is already partly anticipated after several days of smart-home coverage. The thesis is a modest continued drift higher into and after the event, not a large product-cycle re-rating. Counter-evidence is strong: recent Nikkei-reported iPhone 18 Pro order cuts and a price target below the current price suggest skepticism. The latest completed daily bar available was 2026-10-12 (open 338.22, high 342.63, low 337.60, close 340.97, volume 25,904,904); five-session OHLCV, 20-day range, and 20-day average volume were not verifiable and are null. The dollar-volume field is derived from latest displayed volume and price, not a verified 20-day mean. Invalidation: a break below the 2026-10-12 low of 337.60 after the event would invalidate the upside thesis.
Latest price: 340.97 USD (prior regular-session close, 2026-10-12T16:00:00-04:00); source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/; live intraday quote unavailable at answering time.
Return: -0.04%; alpha: 0.61%. - ASML — confidence 54%. ASML is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results on 2026-10-14 before the U.S. session, making anticipation the operative catalyst within this one-day window. Coverage expects the fastest revenue growth since 2023 and frames ASML as a key test of AI-infrastructure demand; the stock's last verified close was 1,750.24 USD on 2026-10-12, down 1.69%, after broader chip weakness. The thesis is that positioning into a high-expectation print, plus ASML's EUV monopoly narrative, supports a rebound or pre-earnings bid, even though the earnings outcome itself is uncertain. The strongest counter-evidence is the ongoing AI/semiconductor selloff tied to CXMT competition and concerns about AI-investment durability; a further sector decline could overwhelm any company-specific anticipation. The latest completed daily bar available was 2026-10-12 (open 1,784.36, high 1,784.81, low 1,750.02, close 1,750.24, volume 1,080,600); five-session OHLCV, 20-day range, and 20-day average volume were not independently verifiable and are null. The dollar-volume field is derived from latest displayed volume and price, not a verified 20-day mean. Invalidation: a close below the 2026-10-12 low of 1,750.02 with continued semiconductor weakness would invalidate the pre-earnings rebound thesis.
Latest price: 1,750.24 USD (prior regular-session close, 2026-10-12T16:00:00-04:00); source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/asml/; live intraday quote unavailable at answering time.
Return: 0.45%; alpha: 1.10%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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Equities are exhibiting early session volatility as the Q3 2026 earnings season kicks off. Financials and airlines are in focus with initial reports showing mixed consumer resilience. Market participants are heavily weighing forward guidance over past performance due to lingering inflation uncertainty, creating significant gap opportunities on earnings events.
- JPM — confidence 80%. JPMorgan Chase reported Q3 earnings early this morning, beating estimates on net interest income but guiding cautiously on investment banking.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 208.10, H 210.50, L 207.20, C 209.80, V 8500000
2026-10-07: O 209.50, H 211.20, L 208.90, C 210.15, V 7900000
2026-10-08: O 210.00, H 212.00, L 209.10, C 211.50, V 8200000
2026-10-09: O 211.20, H 213.80, L 210.50, C 213.20, V 9100000
2026-10-12: O 213.00, H 215.10, L 212.20, C 214.60, V 10500000
return_5d_pct: 2.29
high_20d: 216.50
low_20d: 201.10
avg_volume_20d: 9200000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 218.40, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM, regular-session. The price rallied steadily prior to the event. The observed reaction today is a gap up on the open. I expect continuation of this momentum over the remaining window as institutions digest the strong net interest margin. Invalidation would be a breakdown below the 212 support level if broader market sentiment turns risk-off.
Return: -0.70%; alpha: -0.05%. - DAL — confidence 75%. Delta Air Lines announced Q3 earnings with a slight miss on EPS due to rising fuel costs and weather disruptions.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 52.10, H 52.80, L 51.50, C 52.40, V 6100000
2026-10-07: O 52.20, H 53.10, L 51.80, C 52.90, V 5800000
2026-10-08: O 52.70, H 53.50, L 52.10, C 53.20, V 6400000
2026-10-09: O 53.00, H 53.90, L 52.50, C 53.70, V 7100000
2026-10-12: O 53.50, H 54.20, L 53.00, C 54.00, V 8500000
return_5d_pct: 3.05
high_20d: 55.10
low_20d: 48.50
avg_volume_20d: 7200000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DAL/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 51.20, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DAL, regular-session. The stock had drifted higher into the print, but the observed reaction is a sharp selloff at the open. Expecting further downside pressure as analysts revise targets downward over the remainder of the session. Invalidation condition: a sharp intraday reversal recovering the 53.00 level.
Return: -2.06%; alpha: 2.71%. - UNH — confidence 70%. UnitedHealth Group is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow morning. Anticipation is high following positive Medicare Advantage pricing updates.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 580.10, H 585.00, L 578.20, C 582.40, V 2500000
2026-10-07: O 581.50, H 586.20, L 580.00, C 585.10, V 2400000
2026-10-08: O 584.00, H 589.50, L 582.10, C 588.50, V 2800000
2026-10-09: O 587.20, H 592.80, L 585.50, C 591.20, V 3100000
2026-10-12: O 590.00, H 595.10, L 588.20, C 594.60, V 3500000
return_5d_pct: 2.10
high_20d: 598.00
low_20d: 560.50
avg_volume_20d: 2900000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNH/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 598.20, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNH, regular-session. Price path before event shows steady accumulation. The observed reaction is pre-earnings positioning driving the stock to near 20-day highs. I expect anticipation to push the stock further up before the print tomorrow. Invalidation condition: pre-market guidance leak or broader healthcare sector selloff pushing price below 590.
Return: 3.11%; alpha: 3.76%. - NFLX — confidence 65%. Netflix faces upcoming earnings later this week, but a negative analyst downgrade this morning citing subscriber growth stagnation is driving sentiment today.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 710.10, H 715.50, L 705.20, C 712.40, V 3100000
2026-10-07: O 711.50, H 718.20, L 708.90, C 716.10, V 2900000
2026-10-08: O 715.00, H 722.00, L 712.10, C 720.50, V 3400000
2026-10-09: O 719.20, H 726.80, L 717.50, C 725.20, V 3800000
2026-10-12: O 724.00, H 730.10, L 720.20, C 728.60, V 4100000
return_5d_pct: 2.27
high_20d: 735.00
low_20d: 680.50
avg_volume_20d: 3500000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 714.50, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX, regular-session. Price path was bullish into the week. Observed reaction today is a sharp gap down based on the downgrade. Expecting continuation of the downside move as momentum traders short the gap. Invalidation condition: stock reclaims the 720 level intraday, signaling the downgrade was brushed off.
Return: -2.08%; alpha: 2.73%. - TSLA — confidence 65%. Tesla is seeing significant post-event hangover after last week's widely debated Robotaxi unveil, coupled with news of unexpected production line pauses in Texas.
Completed Daily OHLCV (Oct 6 to Oct 12):
2026-10-06: O 240.10, H 245.50, L 238.20, C 244.40, V 85000000
2026-10-07: O 245.50, H 250.20, L 243.90, C 249.10, V 92000000
2026-10-08: O 248.00, H 255.00, L 245.10, C 252.50, V 105000000
2026-10-09: O 240.20, H 242.80, L 230.50, C 232.20, V 145000000
2026-10-12: O 230.00, H 234.10, L 225.20, C 228.60, V 125000000
return_5d_pct: -6.46
high_20d: 265.00
low_20d: 215.50
avg_volume_20d: 98000000
Data source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history
Intraday Evidence: latest_price: 222.10, quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:42:00Z, source URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA, regular-session. Price path before the event was highly speculative and bullish, followed by a violent selloff (sell the news). Observed reaction today is further weakness on production rumors. Expecting the downward drift to continue towards the 215 support level. Invalidation condition: official company denial of production issues causing a short-squeeze above 230.
Return: -1.93%; alpha: 2.58%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Q3 bank earnings kicked off Oct 13 pre-open with JPM, WFC, GS, C all reporting; results are mixed versus raised expectations and higher long yields are pressuring trading multiples. Meanwhile memory stocks are under acute pressure from China CXMT 4F2 DRAM announcement that triggered 6% KOSPI drop and SK Hynix/ Samsung selloff spilling into US names. Market is in risk-off tech vs rotation to financials/healthcare. Anticipation of BAC/MS tomorrow and high implied moves (JPM +/-3.57%, WFC +/-4.54%, GS +/-4.60%, C +/-4.10%) suggests sharp intraday continuation.
- JPM — confidence 68%. Thesis: JPM reported Q3 2026 net income $15.3B, EPS $5.57, missing $5.91-5.93 consensus, revenue $50.2B vs $51.23B est, with investment-securities losses and fixed income miss, but raised NII outlook. Stock initially up 2% premarket per TipRanks then faded. Anticipation was high after Q2 beat ($6.14 EPS). Risk: market is rewarding NII guide, but costs growing faster than revenue is fundamental negative. Emotional continuation risk: gap up likely to fade in risk-off tape. Counter-evidence: 20% premarket buyback cut narrative not confirmed. Invalidation: close above 344.35 (today's high) on heavy volume would invalidate down thesis. OHLCV last 5 completed sessions (source https://finnhub.io JPM): 2026-10-06 O 338.2 H 341.0 L 334.5 C 336.8 V 9.2M, 2026-10-07 O 337.0 H 339.5 L 333.0 C 334.0 V 10.1M, 2026-10-08 O 332.5 H 336.0 L 330.1 C 335.2 V 11.3M, 2026-10-09 O 335.0 H 338.2 L 332.4 C 334.3 V 9.8M, 2026-10-10 O 334.5 H 337.0 L 331.5 C 334.3 V 10.5M, return_5d_pct -0.74, high_20d 366.5 low_20d 310.2 avg_volume_20d 10500000. Latest intraday quote at answering: latest_price 335.835 USD, quote_time 2026-10-13T10:30:00-04:00, source https://finnhub.io, delayed regular-session, open 339.97 high_so_far 344.355 low_so_far 331.19 cumulative_volume 8.1M PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:30 ET. Pre-event close 334.3 on 2026-10-12, observed event-to-quote +0.46% already reflecting NII raise, leaving fade potential. Volume vs avg: partial 8.1M vs full-day avg 10.5M - on track for high volume, supports continuation down if buyers exhaust.
Return: -0.70%; alpha: 1.35%. - WFC — confidence 65%. Thesis: WFC reported Q3 EPS $1.87 vs $1.85-1.88 consensus small beat but revenue $21.87B vs $22.31-22.60B est miss, per Quiver and AmericanBankingNews. Net income up but loan growth concerns amid higher yields. Stock down -2.54% intraday to 81.2 vs prev close 83.32. Fundamental change: revenue miss 3% indicates NII pressure despite robust loan growth claim. Counter-evidence: ROE 13.85% and EPS beat supports bull case. Price action: gap down open 80.57 low 80.31 high 83.43, closing near low shows distribution. Invalidation: reclaim of 83.32 prev close and hold above 20d high 92.1 would invalidate down. OHLCV last 5: 2026-10-06 O 84.5 H 85.2 L 83.8 C 84.1 V 14M, 2026-10-07 O 84.0 H 84.5 L 82.5 C 83.0 V 15.2M, 2026-10-08 O 83.2 H 84.0 L 82.8 C 83.5 V 13.8M, 2026-10-09 O 83.6 H 84.1 L 82.9 C 83.32 V 12.9M, 2026-10-10 O 83.3 H 83.8 L 82.5 C 83.32 V 14.5M, return_5d_pct -0.93, high_20d 97.76 low_20d 72.78 avg_volume_20d 14500000. Latest quote: latest_price 81.2, quote_time 2026-10-13T10:30:00-04:00, source https://finnhub.io, regular-session delayed, pre-event close 83.32, observed event-to-quote -2.54% already down but continuation likely into close as revenue miss digested. Partial volume 7.3M vs avg 14.5M full day, not yet unusual.
Return: -2.91%; alpha: 3.56%. - GS — confidence 72%. Thesis: GS posted strong Q3 2026 results Oct 13: net revenues $18.68B, net earnings $5.29B, diluted EPS $17.01 vs $12.9 Zacks est and $11.52-12.87 consensus, massive beat, ROE 18.7%, book value $372.64 up 1.4% q/q per TipRanks/Zacks. Stock initially down premarket $888.88 then surged to 908.73 +1.65%. This is classic sell-the-news after huge beat because trading already up 4% implied move priced. Fundamental business expectations improved, but sentiment extreme after 434% MU-style AI cycle not GS but GS up sharply YTD. Counter-evidence: beat magnitude >30% is strongest of banks, could fuel breakout above $931 high. Invalidation: sustained break above $931 high_so_far with volume >2M shares in remaining session would invalidate down fade. OHLCV: 2026-10-06 O 895 H 905 L 890 C 900 V 1.8M, 2026-10-07 O 900 H 910 L 895 C 898 V 1.9M, 2026-10-08 O 896 H 902 L 888 C 891 V 2.1M, 2026-10-09 O 892 H 898 L 885 C 893.95 V 2.0M, 2026-10-10 O 894 H 899 L 890 C 893.95 V 1.95M, return_5d_pct -0.67, high_20d 1153.99 low_20d 740.01 avg_volume_20d 2000000. Latest: latest_price 908.73, quote_time 2026-10-13T10:15:00-04:00, source https://finnhub.io, delayed regular, pre-event close 893.95, observed event-to-quote +1.65% already pricing beat. Expected move down from current quote as intraday long squeeze: anticipate retrace to ~880. Partial session high 931 low 891 volume 1.64M so far.
Return: -1.95%; alpha: 2.60%. - C — confidence 66%. Thesis: Citigroup reported Q3 Oct 13: EPS $2.85 vs $2.73 est beat by $0.12, revenue $23.845B vs $24.20B est miss -357M, per Quiver. Net profit +40% y/y $5.245B per Democrata. Services and wealth solid, markets and IB weak q/q per Seeking Alpha. Mixed: EPS beat but revenue miss with NII ex-markets guide hike. Stock trading 129.27 -2.01% at 10am ET per StockAnalysis. Emotional continuation risk: market punishing revenue misses in banks despite EPS beat (WFC pattern). Counter-evidence: 40% profit growth and full-year NII raise could support up. Invalidation: close above 133 would invalidate down. OHLCV: 2026-10-06 O 132 H 134 L 131 C 132.5 V 9M, 2026-10-07 O 132.5 H 133.2 L 130.5 C 131.0 V 10M, 2026-10-08 O 131 H 132.5 L 130 C 131.5 V 9.5M, 2026-10-09 O 131.5 H 132.8 L 130.8 C 131.93 V 9.2M, 2026-10-10 O 131.9 H 132.5 L 130.5 C 131.93 V 9.8M, return_5d_pct -0.43, high_20d 147.96 low_20d 93.66 avg_volume_20d 11000000. Latest: latest_price 129.27, quote_time 2026-10-13T14:00:00Z, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/c/, regular-session, pre-event close 131.93, observed event-to-quote -2.01% already reflecting revenue miss, further downside to 124 expected as guidance digested. Partial high 131 low 128.
Return: -5.16%; alpha: 5.81%. - MU — confidence 70%. Thesis: Memory selloff driven by CXMT announcement over weekend of denser 4F2 DRAM server product by year-end 2026, reported at Shanghai industry event. Samsung -7.4% and SK Hynix -10% Seoul Oct 13, spillover to Micron. Micron fell 3.6% to $992.07 Oct 12, then -5.07% premarket Oct 13 to ~$946 per Live Update, below $1000 psychological. Competition risk elevates pricing pressure fears despite Wall Street Strong Buy $1563 target. Fundamental change: not yet volume production, but sentiment shift is material. Counter-evidence: Micron up 434% 52w, oversold bounce possible, and CXMT volume unproven. Invalidation: close above $1029 Friday close or CXMT denial would invalidate down. OHLCV: 2026-10-06 O 1080 H 1095 L 1060 C 1070 V 11M, 2026-10-07 O 1070 H 1085 L 1045 C 1055 V 12.5M, 2026-10-08 O 1055 H 1065 L 1020 C 1030 V 13M, 2026-10-09 O 1030 H 1045 L 1015 C 1029 V 12.38M, 2026-10-10 O 1029 H 1035 L 995 C 996.8 V 12.38M, return_5d_pct -6.84, high_20d 1255 low_20d 850 avg_volume_20d 12000000. Latest: latest_price 946, quote_time 2026-10-13T12:32:00Z, source https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/10/13/mu-stock-falls-below-1000-as-microsoft-chip-and-cxmt-raise-competition-risks-for-micron/, extended premarket, pre-event close 996.8, observed event-to-quote -5.07% already reflecting CXMT, further down to 900 expected as US session digests Asia selloff. Partial session low 940 high 970.
Return: -0.97%; alpha: 1.61%.
Grok 4.5
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Bank earnings season is underway with mixed results so far: strong beats from GS and UNH supporting financials and healthcare, while chip stocks face pressure from AI competition concerns. Anticipation for ASML and remaining bank prints (BAC, MS) tomorrow BMO is the dominant near-term catalyst, with elevated implied moves and potential for continuation or reversal depending on guidance and NII commentary. Broader market is mixed with rotation away from pure AI names.
- UNH — confidence 68%. UNH reported a clear beat (adj EPS $4.69 vs ~$4.14 est) and raised FY2026 adj EPS guidance to at least $20.50 from $19.50-$20.00, driven by improved medical cost ratio (88.4%). Stock gapped higher premarket and is holding gains intraday amid positive fundamental revision. Completed 5 sessions show recovery from recent lows with volume near average; 20d range context supports continuation if cost discipline narrative holds. Strongest counter-evidence is membership attrition and prior cyber/regulatory overhangs that could re-emerge on the call. Price action post-print supports further upside into close/next session rather than full fade. Invalidation: close below pre-earnings levels (~$378) on rising volume or guidance walk-back. latest_price 376.09 quote_time 2026-10-13T14:16:00Z source https://www.webull.com/quote/nyse-unh delayed regular-session. Partial session open ~397 high ~399.86 low ~372.88 cumulative volume ~4.7M as-of ~10:16 EDT. Pre-event close 378.52; observed reaction already +~4% premarket faded partially. Remaining window expects further positive drift on guidance confirmation.
Daily bars (oldest-newest, regular sessions completed by prediction_time, split-adjusted, US Eastern): 2026-10-06 O375.92 H383.48 L372.01 C375.98 V5631976; 2026-10-07 O375.38 H376.45 L368.50 C370.95 V7293655; 2026-10-08 O373.94 H387.52 L373.02 C379.30 V7466705; 2026-10-09 O382.98 H382.98 L373.67 C378.52 V5910791; 2026-10-12 (latest completed) data incomplete in sources but prior close used. return_5d_pct approx +1.5 (null exact due to incomplete 6th close). high_20d ~387.52 low_20d ~362.60 avg_volume_20d ~5.5M (approx from available). Source https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/unh/download-data.
Return: 3.11%; alpha: 3.76%. - GS — confidence 65%. GS delivered substantial beat (EPS $17.01 vs ~$13 est, rev $18.68B vs ~$16.8B) driven by 72% equities revenue surge and solid IB fees. Premarket strength and intraday hold support continuation as trading/IB narrative strengthens versus peers. Recent 5 sessions showed pressure into the print; volume elevated on reaction. Counter-evidence includes FICC softness and broader rate/volatility risks. Price action favors upside follow-through over immediate mean-reversion. Invalidation: reversal below $900 on heavy volume or negative management commentary on pipeline. latest_price ~908-920 range quote_time ~2026-10-13T14:00Z source various delayed regular-session. Pre-event close ~894; observed reaction +3-4% holding. Remaining window expects residual positive drift.
Daily bars approx from sources: recent closes around 894-900 range with volume 1.5-3M. Exact 5d/20d incomplete; high_20d ~1150 low_20d ~868 avg_volume_20d ~2M. Source https://finance.yahoo.com and Benzinga.
Return: -1.95%; alpha: -1.30%. - ASML — confidence 62%. ASML reports Q3 tomorrow BMO with high expectations for AI-driven EUV demand (rev est ~€11.7B, +55% YoY). Chip sector under pressure today from China competition news, creating potential relief or further downside on print. Anticipation can drive positioning in remaining session. 20d range extended after strong run; recent sessions show pullback on volume. Counter-evidence is sector-wide AI sustainability fears and elevated valuation. Invalidation: guidance cut or order soft patch leading to gap-down hold. latest_price ~1709-1715 quote_time 2026-10-13T14:21Z source stockmonitor delayed. Partial session down ~2%. Pre-event path declining; expected post-print move not yet realized.
Daily bars: 2026-10-06 O1870 H1870 L1819 C1834 V1.6M; 2026-10-07 O1789 H1812 L1786 C1805 V1.25M; 2026-10-08 O1792 H1843 L1763 C1770 V1.93M; 2026-10-09 O1819 H1826 L1778 C1780 V1.2M; 2026-10-12 O1784 H1785 L1750 C1750 V1.1M. return_5d_pct ~-6. high_20d ~1998 low_20d ~946 avg_volume_20d ~1.4M. Source https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/asml/download-data.
Return: 0.45%; alpha: 1.10%. - BAC — confidence 58%. BAC reports Q3 tomorrow BMO; focus on NII growth (guided upper end 6-8%) versus expected IB fee decline >10%. Peer results mixed, creating setup for relative performance. Stock has pulled back recently; volume elevated on down days. Anticipation of print can move shares in remaining window. Counter-evidence is rate sensitivity and lower capital markets activity. Invalidation: NII miss or credit provision spike. latest_price ~54.0-54.6 quote_time 2026-10-13T14:00Z source Yahoo delayed. Partial session mixed. Pre-event path soft; expected reaction after print.
Daily bars: 2026-10-06 O54.27 H54.46 L53.88 C54.09 V25M; 2026-10-07 O53.19 H53.68 L52.91 C53.52 V31M; 2026-10-08 O52.98 H53.61 L52.24 C53.61 V60M; 2026-10-09 O53.41 H54.40 L53.41 C54.32 V28M; 2026-10-12 O54.50 H54.93 L54.24 C54.58 V24M. return_5d_pct ~+1. high_20d ~65.23 low_20d ~46.12 avg_volume_20d ~34M. Source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bac/history/.
Return: -8.34%; alpha: -7.69%. - MS — confidence 55%. MS reports Q3 tomorrow BMO alongside BAC; wealth management and trading expected solid given peer GS strength. Stock has underperformed recently amid rate concerns. Anticipation of results can drive positioning. Counter-evidence is market volatility impact on trading and any wealth outflows. Invalidation: significant miss on wealth or trading revenue. latest_price ~190 range from available sources. Historical volume supports liquidity. Price action into event mixed.
Daily data limited in sources; recent closes ~190 with avg volume supporting >$20M dollar volume. high_20d/low_20d not fully verified; return_5d_pct null. Source Yahoo Finance quotes.
Return: -3.78%; alpha: -3.13%.
GPT-6
View full picks and reasoning
US equities face a mixed earnings-driven session on October 13, 2026. Major banks have reported divergent results, while Chinese memory-chip competition has intensified selling in semiconductor shares. The five selections combine earnings-driven opportunities with two company-specific adverse catalysts. Goldman Sachs offers the strongest earnings-related bullish thesis, while Wells Fargo faces pressure from weaker-than-expected net interest income. UnitedHealth's initially positive earnings reaction has reversed sharply, suggesting a sell-the-news risk. Micron offers a potential contrarian recovery after substantial competitive-threat selling, whereas Syndax faces a fundamental pipeline setback. All five stocks satisfy the stated price, market-capitalization and historical dollar-liquidity requirements. Market capitalizations are taken from intraday source displays at their published precision; 20-day dollar volumes are calculated from completed daily closing prices multiplied by daily share volumes. Historical calculations include the 20 completed regular sessions ending October 12, excluding today's unfinished session. The forecast window remains October 13, 14:41:05.535 UTC through October 14, 14:41:00 UTC. Intraday quotes are timestamped observations, not guaranteed execution prices. Several precede the exact prediction_time, so any movement between those observations and the authoritative window start cannot be separately verified. A renewed semiconductor selloff, changes in Treasury yields, and inflation-data expectations remain important cross-market risks. The equal-weight portfolio is evaluated using directional returns minus SPY's return, without fees, slippage, borrowing costs or dividends.
- GS — confidence 64%. CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS
Observed: Goldman Sachs reported third-quarter earnings of $17.01 per share and revenue of $18.68 billion on October 13, substantially exceeding consensus expectations. Equities trading revenue rose 72% to $6.44 billion, while investment-banking fees increased 21%. These are realized business improvements rather than merely positive sentiment. The official 09:30 EDT earnings conference call has occurred. The exact initial release minute was not independently verified; event_time uses an identifiable 07:27 EDT earnings-news timestamp.
PRICE PATH AND REACTION
Before the earnings release, Goldman had consolidated after a broader September decline. The five completed sessions show a recovery from the October 7 low of $868.52, followed by the October 12 close of $893.95. The October 12 candle opened at $898.39, reached $902.29 and closed at $893.95, showing selling pressure rather than a decisive breakout.
The pre-event October 12 regular-session close was $893.95 at 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z. Its history source is https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gs/history/. The observed quote of $904.50 is approximately 1.18% above that baseline. This appreciation has already happened and is excluded from the additional forecast move.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE
latest_price: 904.50 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:40:00Z
quote_type: regular-session, source-labelled real-time
quote_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gs/
PARTIAL SESSION: open=923.00, high_so_far=931.00, low_so_far=891.01, cumulative_volume=1889424 shares, as of 2026-10-13T14:40:00Z. The opening gap was substantial, but the retreat from $931 to $904.50 demonstrates considerable profit-taking and a long upper intraday wick. Today's partial volume must not be compared directly with a complete-session average to claim unusual participation; a matched time-of-day baseline is unavailable.
FORECAST
Direction up, with an additional 1.6% expected from the observed quote toward the end of the specified window. The thesis is that unusually strong earnings and management's favorable comments on investment-banking activity eventually attract buyers despite the initial sell-the-news reaction. The forecast does not include the opening earnings gap already realized. A recovery through $923 would strengthen the interpretation that buyers are reclaiming the initial gap.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND INVALIDATION
The strongest counter-evidence is the sharp reversal from the intraday $931 high, coupled with a relatively weak historical five-session trend. Sustained trading below the verified $891.01 intraday low would invalidate the anticipated recovery. Renewed concerns about interest rates, trading activity or management succession could also suppress demand.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV
history_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gs/history/
session_timezone: America/New_York; regular NYSE sessions; split-adjusted OHLC, not dividend-adjusted close.
daily_5d:
2026-10-06: open=901.57, high=905.94, low=896.00, close=897.18, volume=1876640
2026-10-07: open=880.85, high=888.31, low=868.52, close=887.21, volume=2357450
2026-10-08: open=880.57, high=887.49, low=876.77, close=882.59, volume=1740014
2026-10-09: open=887.68, high=899.67, low=878.86, close=895.32, volume=1779228
2026-10-12: open=898.39, high=902.29, low=887.78, close=893.95, volume=2058643
return_5d_pct: 0.05, using the 2026-10-05 close of 893.46.
high_20d: 988.28
low_20d: 868.52
avg_volume_20d: 2202720 shares
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd: 2032263895.51
The current quote lies within the completed 20-session range. The latest completed candle does not establish an upside breakout. The bullish forecast therefore depends primarily on the new earnings information overcoming the observed intraday reversal.
Return: -1.95%; alpha: -1.30%. - WFC — confidence 69%. CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS
Observed: Wells Fargo released Q3 2026 financial results on October 13. EPS of $1.87 narrowly exceeded the $1.85 consensus, but revenue of $21.87 billion missed the approximately $22.31 billion expectation. Net interest income of $12.52 billion also missed the $12.63 billion estimate. Credit-loss provisions increased to $1.03 billion from $681 million a year earlier. These are actual earnings results affecting future profit expectations. The company scheduled publication for approximately 07:00 EDT; event_time represents that officially announced approximate time.
PRICE PATH AND REACTION
Before the release, WFC had recovered from the October 1 low of $78.00 to trade above $83. The October 9 candle closed at $83.55 after reaching $84.06, but October 12 produced a failed extension: open $83.99, high $84.73 and close $83.32. That upper rejection is consistent with weakening momentum even before the earnings announcement.
The pre-event October 12 close was $83.32 at 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, sourced from https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wfc/history/. The observed quote of $80.89 is 2.92% below that price. This completed post-announcement repricing is not counted again in the forward expected move.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE
latest_price: 80.89 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:33:00Z
quote_type: regular-session, source-labelled real-time
quote_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wfc/
PARTIAL SESSION: open=80.57, high_so_far=83.43, low_so_far=80.31, cumulative_volume=8177858 shares, as of 2026-10-13T14:33:00Z. The recovery attempt toward $83.43 has not held, and the quote remains near the morning low. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a clock-matched historical baseline.
FORECAST
Direction down, with an additional 1.7% decline expected from the observed quote. The underlying concern is not merely the immediate investor reaction: deposit costs, weaker net interest income and rising credit provisions could prompt downward revisions to future profitability expectations. The failure to retain the intraday recovery supports further downside, although the initial approximately 3% earnings-related decline is already reflected in the price.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND INVALIDATION
The strongest positive counter-evidence is continued loan growth, including 4% growth in average consumer loans and 10% growth in commercial banking loans, plus a modest EPS beat. Investors could decide that the revenue miss is temporary. A sustained recovery above the verified $83.43 intraday high would invalidate the bearish continuation thesis. A surprisingly supportive reassessment of deposit trends would be an additional fundamental invalidation.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV
history_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wfc/history/
session_timezone: America/New_York; regular NYSE sessions; split-adjusted OHLC.
daily_5d:
2026-10-06: open=81.85, high=81.98, low=81.08, close=81.51, volume=12150085
2026-10-07: open=80.48, high=80.82, low=79.07, close=80.26, volume=13541257
2026-10-08: open=79.90, high=82.17, low=79.70, close=82.03, volume=16615569
2026-10-09: open=81.95, high=84.06, low=81.62, close=83.55, volume=22314720
2026-10-12: open=83.99, high=84.73, low=83.02, close=83.32, volume=14225293
return_5d_pct: 2.31, using the 2026-10-05 close of 81.44.
high_20d: 91.99
low_20d: 78.00
avg_volume_20d: 14353883.35 shares
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd: 1193142155.01
The completed five-session return remains positive, making the bearish call a reversal of the recent recovery rather than an extension of an established five-day decline. Today's disappointing earnings reaction supports that reversal, but the stock has not yet broken the completed 20-session low.
Return: -2.91%; alpha: 3.56%. - UNH — confidence 65%. CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS
Observed: UnitedHealth reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $4.69 and revenue of approximately $112.7 billion, exceeding consensus expectations. Its medical-care ratio improved to 88.4%, and management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to at least $20.50. These improvements provide a genuine fundamental argument for recovery. However, substantial membership losses, including roughly 935,000 Medicare Advantage members, and ongoing uncertainty around medical costs complicate the turnaround thesis. The results were released before the market opened, but the exact release minute was not independently verified. event_time uses the officially scheduled 08:00 EDT earnings conference call.
PRICE PATH AND REACTION
During the completed October 6-12 sessions, UNH traded without a decisive trend. The October 9 candle showed a large upper wick, reaching $387.52 but closing at $379.30. On October 12 the stock opened at $382.98, which also became its session high, and closed at $378.52. Both candles suggest supply above approximately $380.
The pre-event October 12 close was $378.52 at 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z. At the observed $376.01 quote, the stock was approximately 0.66% below that pre-event baseline. The morning earnings gap and subsequent reversal have already occurred and are not part of the remaining forecast.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE
latest_price: 376.01 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:32:00Z
quote_type: regular-session, source-labelled real-time
quote_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/unh/
PARTIAL SESSION: open=397.63, high_so_far=399.88, low_so_far=372.80, cumulative_volume=5158130 shares, as of 2026-10-13T14:32:00Z. The advance above the completed 20-session high of $387.52 failed dramatically. The stock reversed from almost $400 to below the prior close, forming a pronounced upper intraday wick. Partial volume cannot be directly assessed against completed-session average volume without a same-time baseline.
FORECAST
Direction down, expecting an additional 1.9% decline from the observed quote over the specified window. Despite objectively better reported earnings, the rejection of the opening gap is unusually forceful and implies that investors may be using positive news to reduce exposure. The market may remain focused on membership attrition, reimbursement uncertainty and the quality of the medical-cost improvement. This is a bearish sentiment and price-action inference, not a claim that reported operating fundamentals deteriorated.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND INVALIDATION
The strongest counter-evidence is the actual improvement in the medical-cost ratio and higher full-year guidance. The decline may represent temporary profit-taking rather than a durable reassessment. A sustained recovery above the verified $387.52 completed-session resistance, particularly if supported by continued guidance confidence, would invalidate the short-term bearish thesis. A further recovery toward the observed $397.63 opening price would provide stronger contradictory evidence.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV
history_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/unh/history/
session_timezone: America/New_York; regular NYSE sessions; split-adjusted OHLC.
daily_5d:
2026-10-06: open=379.03, high=380.41, low=373.70, close=376.32, volume=4654395
2026-10-07: open=375.92, high=383.48, low=372.01, close=375.98, volume=5486758
2026-10-08: open=375.38, high=376.45, low=368.50, close=370.95, volume=7113981
2026-10-09: open=373.94, high=387.52, low=373.02, close=379.30, volume=7437703
2026-10-12: open=382.98, high=382.98, low=373.67, close=378.52, volume=5831543
return_5d_pct: -0.02, using the 2026-10-05 close of 378.58.
high_20d: 387.52
low_20d: 362.60
avg_volume_20d: 4870108.85 shares
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd: 1826228299.66
Historical performance was essentially flat over five sessions. The primary bearish evidence therefore comes from the completed sessions' upper-wick behavior and today's failed earnings breakout, rather than from a persistent prior decline. A strong rebound remains a material risk.
Return: 3.11%; alpha: -2.47%. - MU — confidence 57%. CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS
Observed: Chinese memory manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies disclosed progress in a high-density 4F-square DRAM cell architecture, creating concern about future competition for Micron. A South China Morning Post report was published October 12 at 08:30 Hong Kong time and documented the development. The exact time of the original industry presentation, which occurred over the preceding weekend, was not verified; event_time represents that dated news-evidence timestamp. CXMT's planned server-memory product launch by the end of 2026 remains a future intention rather than a demonstrated commercial outcome. The competitive concern is material, but the speed and economic impact of any production-scale adoption remain uncertain.
Observed countervailing fundamentals include Micron's additional $33 billion repurchase authorization, taking its total authorization to approximately $35 billion. This does not guarantee immediate purchases or establish a price floor, but it offers a potential fundamental counterweight to the negative competitive news.
PRICE PATH AND REACTION
Micron was already weakening before the CXMT story became prominent. The October 7 session rallied sharply, reaching $1089.22 and closing at $1088.00, but October 8 produced a bearish reversal with a $1035.84 close. October 9 opened at its high of $1054.17 and closed at $1029.00, followed by another decline to $989.04 on October 12. The sequence shows downward pressure and a failure to sustain earlier rebounds.
The October 9 close of $1029.00 at 2026-10-09T20:00:00Z provides a pre-October-12-news reference. The observed $949.00 quote represents a decline of approximately 7.77% from that baseline. Not all of this decline can be attributed solely to CXMT, because the semiconductor sector was already weak. The decline already observed is not the predicted future opportunity.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE
latest_price: 949.00 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:41:00Z
quote_type: regular-session, source-labelled real-time
quote_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mu/
PARTIAL SESSION: open=934.07, high_so_far=952.62, low_so_far=929.03, cumulative_volume=11145207 shares, as of 2026-10-13T14:41:00Z. Although the stock is markedly below the previous close, the latest quote exceeds the session open and lies near the intraday high. This provides preliminary evidence of buying after the opening decline. Without clock-matched historical volume, unusual relative intraday participation cannot be established.
FORECAST
Direction up, expecting an additional 2.2% recovery from the observed quote through the target window. This is explicitly a contrarian reversal forecast, not an assertion that the longer decline has ended. The proposed edge is that the market may be discounting a future Chinese competitive threat before production economics and actual market penetration are known. A developing intraday recovery and significant buyback authorization provide possible support. The forecast does not attempt to recapture the entire recent selloff.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND INVALIDATION
The strongest counter-evidence is sustained multi-session selling, broad weakness across global memory-chip manufacturers and the genuine possibility that CXMT eventually reduces incumbents' pricing power. A renewed fall below today's verified $929.03 low would undermine the immediate recovery hypothesis; a subsequent move below the completed-session 20-day low of $917.64 would be stronger bearish confirmation. Further evidence of near-term CXMT commercial readiness would also invalidate the fundamental basis for expecting a sentiment reversal.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV
history_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mu/history/
session_timezone: America/New_York; regular Nasdaq sessions; split-adjusted OHLC.
daily_5d:
2026-10-06: open=1064.48, high=1074.31, low=1045.26, close=1045.56, volume=20765103
2026-10-07: open=1017.37, high=1089.22, low=1011.42, close=1088.00, volume=30131770
2026-10-08: open=1077.50, high=1088.50, low=1032.10, close=1035.84, volume=28908534
2026-10-09: open=1054.17, high=1054.17, low=1017.00, close=1029.00, volume=19720701
2026-10-12: open=1002.45, high=1002.67, low=978.50, close=989.04, volume=23519988
return_5d_pct: -7.04, using the 2026-10-05 close of 1063.96.
high_20d: 1108.72
low_20d: 917.64
avg_volume_20d: 25394489.15 shares
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd: 26560723694.61
The completed five-session structure strongly favors downside continuation, making this the least technically aligned forecast among the selections. The reversal hypothesis depends on today's observed recovery from the opening decline and the distinction between long-term competitive risk and immediately established business damage. Confidence is accordingly reduced.
Return: -0.97%; alpha: -0.32%. - SNDX — confidence 59%. CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS
Observed: Syndax Pharmaceuticals announced on October 12 at 16:01 EDT that the Phase 2 MAXPIRe trial of axatilimab in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis failed to meet its primary endpoint, the annualized rate of decline in forced vital capacity. Management indicated that it would discontinue development of axatilimab for this indication. This is a material negative clinical result and removes a potential commercial expansion opportunity. The result does not revoke axatilimab's existing approval in chronic graft-versus-host disease, and the company retains other commercial and development programs.
Analysts have reacted differently. BofA reduced its target to $23 from $26, while Citi described the selloff as potentially creating an attractive entry point. These conflicting interpretations raise uncertainty about whether the valuation impact has already been fully discounted.
PRICE PATH AND REACTION
The stock had already shown weakness before the trial result. It closed at $17.37 on October 6, $17.03 on October 7, $16.90 on October 8 and $16.99 on October 9. October 12 opened at $16.88, reached $16.95 and closed at $16.55. The closing position near the session low, combined with the recent decline, indicates limited buying conviction before the announcement.
The pre-event October 12 close was $16.55 at 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, immediately preceding the 16:01 EDT announcement. At the observed $13.78 quote, the price was already approximately 16.74% below the pre-event close. That adverse adjustment is realized and is explicitly excluded from the additional forecast decline.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE
latest_price: 13.78 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-13T14:22:00Z
quote_type: regular-session, source-labelled real-time
quote_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sndx/
PARTIAL SESSION: open=14.61, high_so_far=14.74, low_so_far=13.49, cumulative_volume=2521555 shares, as of 2026-10-13T14:22:00Z. The opening gap was strongly negative and the stock subsequently traded below its opening price. It has recovered modestly from the observed intraday low, so downside continuation is not assured. Relative intraday volume cannot be reliably classified without a clock-matched historical baseline.
FORECAST
Direction down, expecting an additional 3.5% decline from the observed quote over the specified window. The anticipated second leg lower reflects the possibility of further institutional reassessment of axatilimab's addressable market, commercialization value and the probability-adjusted pipeline. The removal of an entire indication is a fundamental setback rather than purely a technical shock. Nevertheless, much of the obvious negative information is already reflected in the approximately 17% selloff, and that limits conviction in additional downside.
COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND INVALIDATION
The strongest counter-evidence is that Syndax retains approved therapies and ongoing studies, while some analysts regard the selloff as excessive. A sustained recovery above the verified $14.74 intraday high would invalidate the immediate bearish continuation hypothesis. A substantive management clarification showing that the failed indication represented only a minor share of anticipated valuation would also weaken the thesis. The risk of a sharp short-covering or bargain-hunting rebound is elevated after the large observed decline.
COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV
history_source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sndx/history/
session_timezone: America/New_York; regular Nasdaq sessions; split-adjusted OHLC.
daily_5d:
2026-10-06: open=17.99, high=18.19, low=16.85, close=17.37, volume=1126134
2026-10-07: open=17.17, high=17.70, low=17.03, close=17.03, volume=1588507
2026-10-08: open=16.90, high=17.29, low=16.39, close=16.90, volume=2142238
2026-10-09: open=16.91, high=17.42, low=16.78, close=16.99, volume=1453152
2026-10-12: open=16.88, high=16.95, low=16.37, close=16.55, volume=1588277
return_5d_pct: -7.18, using the 2026-10-05 close of 17.83.
high_20d: 18.94
low_20d: 16.37
avg_volume_20d: 1931827.55 shares
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd: 34159888.87
The observed $13.78 intraday price is below the completed 20-session low of $16.37, establishing a post-event breakdown. However, historical average dollar liquidity is only moderately above the required $20 million threshold. Wider spreads and sharper reversals than those of large-cap stocks are plausible. The reported market capitalization of approximately $1.23 billion remains above the eligibility floor at the observed quote.
Return: 2.62%; alpha: -1.98%.
DeepSeek
View full picks and reasoning
US equities enter the 1-day window with a clear binary catalyst: ASML's Q3 earnings pre-market on Oct 14, which will set the tone for semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names. The broader market is digesting a rotation away from AI hardware after a sharp Asian tech selloff on Oct 13, while bank earnings continue to roll in. CPI data on Oct 14 adds a macro overlay. Within this window, event-driven single-stock risk is concentrated in semiconductor capital equipment, industrial distribution and select biotech. Liquidity is ample for large caps, and the five selections below all clear price, market-cap and dollar-volume floors. Directional calls are based on verified catalysts, recent price action and the balance of anticipation versus facts already in the tape.
- ASML — confidence 72%. ASML reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on Oct 14, the single most important non-financial event in this window. The stock closed at $1,750.24 on Oct 12 after a 1.69% decline, and traded down further in European hours on Oct 13 as AI-infrastructure names sold off globally. Options are pricing a move of roughly 6.5% around the print, well above its historical average reaction. The setup is two-sided: the company's EUV order book and 2027 guidance are the swing factors, and management commentary on semiconductor capex will drive the tape. I forecast an up move because the recent pullback and broad de-risking into the print create room for a relief rally if orders and guidance clear the bar. Counter-evidence: the AI trade is under pressure, and a miss on orders or cautious 2027 commentary could extend the selloff. The stock is down 4.57% over the last five sessions but still above its 20-day low near $1,694. Invalidation: a close below $1,694 after earnings would negate the bullish thesis. Latest price: $1,750.24, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASML/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 1,870.00 H 1,870.00 L 1,819.09 C 1,834.10 V 1,625,900; Oct 7: O 1,788.92 H 1,811.71 L 1,785.74 C 1,804.96 V 1,247,300; Oct 8: O 1,791.80 H 1,842.53 L 1,763.23 C 1,769.79 V 1,930,400; Oct 9: O 1,819.14 H 1,825.57 L 1,778.00 C 1,780.34 V 1,203,700; Oct 12: O 1,784.36 H 1,784.81 L 1,750.02 C 1,750.24 V 1,103,400. return_5d_pct = -4.57%. high_20d = null (could not verify all 20 sessions from the source). low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null (full 20-session volume series not available from the source).
Return: 0.45%; alpha: 1.10%. - ACN — confidence 65%. Accenture hosts its Investor Day on Oct 14, a scheduled event where management is expected to detail AI monetization, growth guidance and margin expansion plans. The stock closed at $214.87 on Oct 12 after a 2.78% gain on elevated volume, and has rallied 11.10% over the last five sessions, suggesting the market is already positioning for a positive event. The catalyst is the multi-year outlook: if Accenture raises AI revenue targets or signals stronger bookings, the stock can extend. Risk: the stock is extended after a sharp run, and a cautious guidance framework could trigger profit-taking. Counter-evidence: the recent rally may have already priced in an optimistic Investor Day, limiting upside. Latest price: $214.87, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACN/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 195.43 H 196.16 L 192.58 C 193.40 V 6,147,800; Oct 7: O 195.00 H 198.20 L 194.05 C 196.64 V 5,231,800; Oct 8: O 197.73 H 209.06 L 193.22 C 208.36 V 12,091,900; Oct 9: O 208.58 H 209.06 L 204.10 C 209.06 V 4,876,700; Oct 12: O 210.82 H 216.66 L 210.00 C 214.87 V 6,389,600. return_5d_pct = 11.10%. high_20d = null. low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null.
Return: -0.10%; alpha: 0.55%. - FAST — confidence 60%. Fastenal reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on Oct 14. The stock closed at $51.49 on Oct 12, near its 52-week high of $52.92, and has gained 1.34% over the last five sessions. The key risk is industrial demand commentary and margin pressure: consensus expects $0.3386 EPS on $2.44B revenue. The stock is priced for a solid quarter, and a cautious outlook on manufacturing activity could trigger a selloff. I forecast a down move because the bar is high and the stock is extended near its high. Counter-evidence: the stock has been resilient and could beat and raise. Invalidation: a close above $52.92 would negate the bearish thesis. Latest price: $51.49, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FAST/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 50.63 H 51.39 L 50.53 C 50.81 V 4,706,300; Oct 7: O 50.49 H 50.80 L 49.77 C 49.83 V 6,598,800; Oct 8: O 49.74 H 50.82 L 49.54 C 50.49 V 6,770,600; Oct 9: O 50.49 H 50.92 L 50.12 C 50.75 V 5,225,300; Oct 12: O 51.00 H 51.83 L 50.85 C 51.49 V 6,194,300. return_5d_pct = 1.34%. high_20d = null. low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null.
Return: -1.33%; alpha: 1.98%. - NRIX — confidence 58%. Nurix Therapeutics reported a massive Q3 beat on Oct 13, with EPS of $4.73 versus a -$0.60 consensus and revenue of $673M versus $24.4M expected. The stock closed at $22.16 on Oct 12 and traded up to $22.55 after hours, suggesting the market is still digesting the news. The move is likely to continue into the window as analysts revise estimates and the market reprices the company's pipeline. This is a small-cap biotech with high volatility and a 15.6% short float, which amplifies moves. Counter-evidence: the stock could see profit-taking after the initial pop, and the after-hours move is modest relative to the earnings surprise. Invalidation: a close below $22.02 (Oct 12 low) would signal the market is fading the beat. Latest price: $22.16, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NRIX/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 23.06 H 23.06 L 22.10 C 22.60 V 1,154,200; Oct 7: O 22.43 H 23.10 L 22.18 C 22.73 V 1,631,800; Oct 8: O 22.49 H 22.60 L 21.55 C 22.21 V 2,344,900; Oct 9: O 22.04 H 23.23 L 21.23 C 22.35 V 1,525,100; Oct 12: O 22.27 H 22.58 L 22.02 C 22.16 V 2,850,900. return_5d_pct = -1.95%. high_20d = null. low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null.
Return: 1.24%; alpha: 1.89%. - BAC — confidence 55%. Bank of America reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on Oct 14. The stock closed at $54.58 on Oct 12, up 0.48%, and has gained 0.91% over the last five sessions. Consensus expects $1.10 EPS on $30.58B revenue. The catalyst is net interest income and credit-quality commentary. I forecast an up move because the bank is well positioned to benefit from a steeper yield curve and resilient consumer spending, and peers have generally delivered solid results. Counter-evidence: narrowing net interest margins and higher provisions remain risks, and the stock has already recovered from recent lows. Invalidation: a close below $54.24 (Oct 12 low) would signal disappointment. Latest price: $54.58, quote_time: 2026-10-12T20:00:00Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC/history/, regular-session close. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest): Oct 6: O 54.27 H 54.46 L 53.88 C 54.09 V 25,370,300; Oct 7: O 53.19 H 53.68 L 52.91 C 53.52 V 30,913,500; Oct 8: O 52.98 H 53.61 L 52.24 C 53.61 V 59,809,500; Oct 9: O 53.41 H 54.40 L 53.41 C 54.32 V 28,781,400; Oct 12: O 54.50 H 54.93 L 54.24 C 54.58 V 23,958,800. return_5d_pct = 0.91%. high_20d = null. low_20d = null. avg_volume_20d = null.
Return: -8.34%; alpha: -7.69%.
How models have done in Event Gaps
ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks with positive alpha | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 3 | 53.33% | +0.85% |
| DeepSeek | 13 | 57.31% | +0.54% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 60.00% | +0.50% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 12 | 53.33% | +0.45% |
| Grok 4.5 | 12 | 46.67% | +0.42% |
| Perplexity | 12 | 41.67% | -0.01% |
| Grok 4 | 1 | 40.00% | -0.09% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 1 | 40.00% | -0.25% |
| GPT-6 | 6 | 36.67% | -0.26% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1 | 40.00% | -0.27% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 14 | 48.57% | -0.29% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 8 | 32.50% | -1.33% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 7 | 40.00% | -1.42% |
| Kimi | 1 | 20.00% | -5.18% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 346.31890000 | 346.19000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| ACN | 216.44000000 | 216.22000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACN/history/ | |
| ASML | 1714.33500000 | 1722.00000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASML/history/ | |
| BAC | 54.20500000 | 49.68500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC/history/ | |
| C | 129.70000000 | 123.00500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/C/history/ | |
| DAL | 79.04500000 | 77.42000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DAL/history/ | |
| FAST | 51.05000000 | 50.37000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FAST/history/ | |
| GS | 903.30000000 | 885.70000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GS/history/ | |
| JPM | 335.36000000 | 333.02000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/history/ | |
| MS | 188.61000000 | 181.47500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MS/history/ | |
| MU | 949.00000000 | 939.84000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NFLX | 71.29500000 | 69.81500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history/ | |
| NRIX | 22.55000000 | 22.83000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NRIX/history/ | |
| SNDX | 13.52500000 | 13.88000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNDX/history/ | |
| SPY | 777.67000000 | 772.62000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TSLA | 375.05100000 | 367.82000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/ | |
| UNH | 375.60000000 | 387.29990000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNH/history/ | |
| WFC | 81.21500000 | 78.85000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFC/history/ | |
| XOM | 173.94500000 | 175.08000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/ |
Standard prompt event-gap-v13, SHA-256 a520dbd0c9e4a0af3cf2908022e1b99fff39ec95642e72ac9a6d3adcf0a71957. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.