Oct 15, 2026 - 6 AI models call event-driven stocks in the morning session. 2 models beat SPY over the window

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Asked Oct 15, 10:22 AM EDT (morning session). Gemini 1.5 Pro, Grok 4.5, Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity, DeepSeek and GPT-6 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 15, 10:22 AM EDT to Oct 16, 10:22 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

ModelCorrectHit rateReturnSPYAlpha vs SPY
Gemini 1.5 Pro3/560.00%-0.15%0.51%-0.66%
Grok 4.52/540.00%2.35%0.51%1.84%
Muse Spark 1.12/540.00%0.94%0.51%0.43%
Perplexity2/540.00%-2.13%0.51%-2.64%
DeepSeek3/560.00%-0.64%0.51%-1.15%
GPT-61/520.00%-1.56%0.51%-2.07%

Gemini 1.5 Pro

Gemini 1.5 Pro: each pick's move beside SPY's

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As the requested prediction time (October 15, 2026) is in the future relative to available verified data, live real-time market data, exact 2026 intraday prices, and future realized events cannot be authentically retrieved. To strictly comply with the schema requirements while honoring the instruction not to invent future facts, the selections below utilize the latest historically verifiable data parameters as proxies for the required numeric fields, and anticipated generalized catalysts. All future projections are necessarily unverified expectations.

  1. AAPL — confidence 55%. Event/Thesis: Anticipated product announcements or earnings guidance updates typical for mid-October technology cycles. As the prediction date is in the future (Oct 2026), live intraday evidence, completed daily OHLCV for the prior 5 sessions in 2026, and specific event reactions cannot be verified and are therefore null. Daily 5d OHLCV: null. return_5d_pct: null. high_20d/low_20d: null. avg_volume_20d: null. Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. The thesis relies on typical seasonal hardware momentum. Invalidation level: A breakdown below technical support or negative forward guidance. Due to inability to access 2026 live web data, current price metrics are unverified placeholders.
    Return: -0.09%; alpha: -0.60%.
  2. TSLA — confidence 50%. Event/Thesis: Expected anticipation around Q3 production/delivery figures and margin impacts typically discussed in mid-October. 2026 live data is inaccessible. Daily 5d OHLCV: null. return_5d_pct: null. high_20d/low_20d: null. avg_volume_20d: null. Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. Anticipation of pricing strategy adjustments could drive volatility. Invalidation level: Stable margins reported ahead of schedule nullifying downside risk.
    Return: 2.38%; alpha: -2.89%.
  3. NVDA — confidence 60%. Event/Thesis: Continued anticipation of AI accelerator demand and supply chain updates. Since 2026 data cannot be retrieved, historical facts are omitted. Daily 5d OHLCV: null. return_5d_pct: null. high_20d/low_20d: null. avg_volume_20d: null. Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. High beta to semiconductor sector news. Invalidation level: Major supply chain disruption confirmed by tier-1 fabricators.
    Return: 0.51%; alpha: 0.00%.
  4. MSFT — confidence 55%. Event/Thesis: Cloud infrastructure growth metrics anticipation. No 2026 live data available to verify OHLCV or intraday quotes. Daily 5d OHLCV: null. return_5d_pct: null. high_20d/low_20d: null. avg_volume_20d: null. Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. Expected steady accumulation based on enterprise AI integration. Invalidation level: Sector-wide cloud spending slowdown indicators.
    Return: 0.62%; alpha: 0.11%.
  5. AMZN — confidence 50%. Event/Thesis: Retail consumer strength and AWS segment expectations heading into the holiday quarter. 2026 data unavailable. Daily 5d OHLCV: null. return_5d_pct: null. high_20d/low_20d: null. avg_volume_20d: null. Intraday Evidence: latest_price: null, quote_time: null. Consumer discretionary spending data poses macro risk. Invalidation level: Substantial drop in leading retail consumption indicators.
    Return: 0.60%; alpha: 0.10%.

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Grok 4.5

Grok 4.5: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Broader market faces AI-infrastructure debt concerns and hotter inflation data, pressuring tech and growth names while financials and industrials trade on individual earnings. Session remains open with elevated volatility around remaining AMC prints and post-earnings digestion.

  1. SCHW — confidence 62%. Charles Schwab reported Q3 results before the open on 2026-10-15, beating EPS estimates but issuing conservative guidance that triggered an immediate ~5% decline from the prior close of 96.80. Latest quote near 91.85-92.16 as of ~10:14 AM EDT on 2026-10-15 (regular session, delayed sources). Market cap ~159B USD, 20d avg dollar volume well above 20M. Price action shows a sharp gap-down with elevated volume; the move already reflects the guidance disappointment, yet residual selling pressure and sector caution around rates support further downside into the close and next session. Strongest counter-evidence is the EPS beat and asset inflows; invalidation would be a reclaim of 95+ on volume or positive peer guidance. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest, split-adjusted, regular sessions through 2026-10-14): 2026-10-08 O95.60 H97.18 L95.43 C96.87 V6.53M; 2026-10-09 O97.48 H97.48 L96.37 C96.70 V6.48M; 2026-10-12 O97.07 H97.82 L96.69 C97.06 V4.57M; 2026-10-13 O97.30 H97.69 L95.81 C95.94 V6.82M; 2026-10-14 O95.75 H97.21 L95.06 C96.80 V13.09M. return_5d_pct ~0.1, high_20d ~114.53, low_20d ~83.96, avg_volume_20d ~7-8M shares (source: stockanalysis/ycharts/historical pages). Latest_price 91.85 quote_time 2026-10-15T14:14:00Z source https://www.insidearbitrage.com/symbol-metrics/SCHW&P=SCHW regular-session. Pre-event close 96.80; observed reaction already ~-5%. Remaining window expects continued digestion lower.
    Return: 1.44%; alpha: -1.95%.
  2. IBKR — confidence 58%. Interactive Brokers reports Q3 after the close on 2026-10-15. Options imply ~±4.9% move. Latest quote ~82.00-82.30 as of ~10:10 AM EDT 2026-10-15 (regular session). Market cap ~37B USD, 20d avg volume ~3.6M shares implying dollar volume well above threshold. Pre-event price path has been soft amid broader financial/tech caution; anticipation of strong retail trading volumes and net interest income supports an upside reaction post-print, though rate sensitivity is a risk. Strongest counter-evidence is recent price weakness and possible margin compression; invalidation is a miss on EPS/revenue or guidance cut. Completed daily history limited in sources; latest available closes show decline into event. Latest_price 82.08 quote_time 2026-10-15T14:16:00Z source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ibkr/ regular-session. Pre-event reaction null (report still pending). Expected post-report move upward over the window.
    Return: 4.10%; alpha: 3.59%.
  3. AA — confidence 55%. Alcoa reports Q3 after the close on 2026-10-15. Implied move ~±5.9%. Latest quote ~39.20-39.60 as of mid-morning 2026-10-15 (regular session). Market cap ~10.3-10.6B USD, 20d avg volume ~4.1M shares. Aluminum prices and cost trends form the key variables; recent price has been weak. Anticipation of a clean beat on aluminum margins supports upside, but commodity volatility is the main risk. Strongest counter-evidence is ongoing soft industrial demand signals; invalidation is a miss or lower guidance on aluminum realizations. Latest_price 39.27 quote_time 2026-10-15T14:16:00Z source https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AA/ regular-session. Pre-event reaction null. Expected post-report move higher.
    Return: 10.74%; alpha: 10.23%.
  4. JBHT — confidence 52%. J.B. Hunt reports Q3 after the close on 2026-10-15. Implied move ~±5.9%. Latest quote ~232-233 as of mid-morning 2026-10-15. Market cap ~21.8B USD, 20d avg volume ~1.0-1.2M shares. Freight volumes and intermodal trends are the focus; recent price has recovered modestly after a larger drawdown. Anticipation of sequential improvement supports upside, though macro freight softness remains a headwind. Strongest counter-evidence is still-elevated capacity in trucking; invalidation is a miss on volumes or margin guidance. Latest_price 232.27 quote_time 2026-10-15T13:43:00Z source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/jbht/ regular-session. Pre-event reaction null. Expected post-report move higher.
    Return: -1.41%; alpha: -1.92%.
  5. TSM — confidence 60%. TSMC reported strong Q3 results before the open on 2026-10-15 (revenue and profit beat, raised outlook) yet the ADR sold off ~4% amid broader AI-infrastructure and rate concerns. Latest quote ~408-411 as of mid-morning 2026-10-15. Market cap ~2.1-2.2T USD, high dollar volume. The fundamental beat is already known; remaining pressure from sector rotation and debt worries supports further downside over the window. Strongest counter-evidence is the beat-and-raise itself and AI demand commentary; invalidation is a sharp rebound above 430 on volume or positive peer AI updates. Completed daily bars (through 2026-10-14): 2026-10-08 O466.32 H471.19 L452.88 C457.99 V13.4M; 2026-10-09 O464.21 H464.83 L449.75 C453.31 V9.2M; 2026-10-12 O453.55 H454.40 L444.35 C444.35 V8.9M; 2026-10-13 O439.52 H445.50 L437.40 C445.12 V8.6M; 2026-10-14 O436.25 H440.39 L428.06 C430.00 V15.0M. return_5d_pct negative, high_20d 487.47, low_20d ~266. Latest_price 411.64 quote_time 2026-10-15T13:47:00Z source https://www.stockmonitor.com/quote/tsm regular-session. Pre-event close 430; observed reaction already ~-4.3%. Remaining window expects continued pressure.
    Return: 0.22%; alpha: -0.73%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

Muse Spark 1.1: each pick's move beside SPY's

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October 15 is a heavy earnings day with banks and transports. Record AI-driven results from TSMC already printed pre-market, while US REIT Prologis and regional bank U.S. Bancorp beat on the open. Two high-beta after-close prints - J.B. Hunt and 【entity-Interactive Brokers¦canonical_name=Interactive Brokers】 - are scheduled after the window start and should drive anticipation trades today. Broad market is under pressure from chip selloff, creating gap-down reversals versus beat reactions.

  1. TSM — confidence 72%. Thesis: TSMC reported Q3 2026 record profit Oct 15: NT$1.49T revenue ~$46.7B +50% YoY above guidance $44.6-45.8B, net income NT$763.1B +68.7% YoY beating LSEG NT$746.34B, gross margin 66.4%, op margin 58.7%, Q4 guidance $52.3-54.3B (+14% seq). Beat is factual, occurred. Stock sold off -4.3% intraday to ~$411 despite beat due to high expectations and valuation concerns, indicating emotional de-risking. Anticipation of 【entity-Nvidia¦canonical_name=Nvidia】/Broadcom/【entity-AMD¦canonical_name=AMD】 read-through plus after-hours rebound to $422.55 suggests reversal potential. Expected move up 4% into Oct 16 close as buyers fade the gap. Price Action: 5 completed bars from verified history: 2026-10-14 open 436.25 high 440.39 low 428.06 close 430.00 volume 15101700, 2026-10-13 439.52/445.50/437.40/445.12 vol 8573772, 2026-10-12 453.55/454.40/444.35/444.35 vol 8844570, 2026-10-09 464.21/464.83/449.75/453.31 vol 9260233, 2026-10-08 466.32/471.19/452.88/457.99 vol 13419057. return_5d_pct = 100*(430.00/457.99-1) = -6.11%. high_20d estimated null low_20d null avg_volume_20d ~11M shares but full 20d not verified null. Intraday Oct 15 shows open 415.17 high 415.17 low 407.13 close prior 430, current 411.3 down gap. Volume elevated vs avg indicating exhaustion not continuation. Counter-evidence: rich P/E ~29 and AI capex fear. Invalidation: close below $400 or Q4 guide cut. Event occurred fact. OHLC source: https://kqtv.marketminute.com/ Historical Prices For TSM. Intraday quote: https://finnhub.io TSM Current Price 411.3. After-hours: https://public.com Trade TSM Stock After-hours Oct 15 8PM EST $422.55.
    Return: 0.22%; alpha: -0.29%.
  2. PLD — confidence 65%. Thesis: Prologis reported Q3 2026 BMO Oct 15: EPS $1.60 vs consensus $0.78 (core FFO definition) beating by $0.82 per Zacks, updated FY guidance 6.25-6.29 vs consensus 6.27. Net margin 45.79% ROE 7.29%. Market initially faded -1.38% to 128.65 despite beat, suggesting confusion between GAAP $0.86 and core FFO $1.60 and interest-rate headwinds. Industrial REIT demand still healthy. Expect mean-reversion up 2.5% as clarity spreads. Price Action: Completed bar Oct 14 close 130.46 per source. 5-day history not fully verified, return_5d_pct null, high_20d null low_20d null avg_volume_20d null. Intraday Oct 15 open 132.04 high 132.39 low 128.19 previous close 130.46 current 128.65 down gap with upper wick. Opened at 130.50 per thestockobserver. Volume not verified elevated. Counter-evidence: rising rates pressure REIT valuations. Invalidation: break below 116.51 12m low. Event occurred. OHLC source: https://www.thestockobserver.com/2026/10/15/prologis-nysepld-issues-quarterly-earnings-results-beats-estimates-by-0-82-eps.html and https://finnhub.io PLD quote.
    Return: -0.67%; alpha: -1.17%.
  3. USB — confidence 60%. Thesis: U.S. Bancorp reported Q3 2026 BMO Oct 15: diluted EPS $1.34 vs $1.32-1.33 consensus (+$0.02), revenue $7.97-8.04B vs $8.01B slight miss, net income $2.20B +10% YoY, NIM supported. Raised full-year revenue growth guidance 8-9%. Stock opened at $56.29 down 1.1% despite beat due to revenue miss and credit provisions $654M vs $571M YoY. Emotional continuation down risk fading, beat on EPS with expense control (efficiency 55.9%) should support bounce up 2% over window. Price Action: Oct 15 open 56.29 vs prior close implied ~56.9. No full 5-day OHLC verified, null. 52-week range $45.02-$66.07, 50-day MA $61.05 above price indicating oversold below MA. Counter-evidence: revenue miss and rising provisions. Invalidation: close below $54. Event occurred fact. Source for open and market cap: https://www.watchlistnews.com/u-s-bancorp-nyseusb-posts-quarterly-earnings-results-beats-expectations-by-0-02-eps/11262242.html
    Return: 2.45%; alpha: 1.94%.
  4. JBHT — confidence 68%. Thesis: J.B. Hunt reports Q3 2026 AMC Oct 15, consensus EPS $1.81 revenue $3.59B, up 2.84% YoY expected, Q2 EPS was $1.91 +45% YoY. Freight upcycle and intermodal pricing recovery in focus. Market anticipates beat given first half earnings +30.9% to $322.58M. Stock trading at $232.47 up 0.13% today, near flat pre-event, showing muted anticipation. Expected move up 3.5% post-print as guidance lift anticipated. Event is scheduled after window start but anticipation can move stock today; actual release after close will affect final hour of window on Oct 16 open continuation. Price Action: No verified 5-day OHLC, null. Current price 232.47 open 232.93 high 234.64 low 231 previous close 232.16. Trading tight range pre-earnings, low wick. Counter-evidence: fuel and driver cost warnings historically weigh (Simply Wall). Invalidation: EPS miss < $1.70 or guide down. Event scheduled, not yet occurred. Source: https://finnhub.io JBHT Current Price 232.47
    Return: -1.41%; alpha: -1.92%.
  5. IBKR — confidence 62%. Thesis: Interactive Brokers reports Q3 2026 AMC Oct 15 at 4:30 PM ET call. Consensus EPS $0.668 revenue $1.86B +13.5% YoY growth, EPS +15.8% YoY. Brokerage benefits from elevated volatility and rising rates on client cash. Stock down -2.42% to $82.10 today, -6.43% 5-day, trading below pre-market $82.72, showing pre-earnings de-risking. High bar after record quarter but IBKR navigates favorable rates. Expect bounce up 3% as short-covering into print. Price Action: Current price 82.10 open 82.75 high 83.03 low 81.04 previous close 84.14 down gap. 5-day return -6.43% per finnhub indicating oversold pre-event, not exhaustion. No full 5-bar OHLC verified null. Volume avg not verified. Counter-evidence: prior quarter missed by 1.69% and DART slowdown risk. Invalidation: EPS < $0.60 or client equity drop. Event scheduled. Source: https://finnhub.io IBKR Financial Market Data Current Price 82.1
    Return: 4.10%; alpha: 3.59%.

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Perplexity

Perplexity: each pick's move beside SPY's

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The one-session setup is dominated by a risk-off AI/technology tape after hotter-than-expected September CPI, rising expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate hike, and reported stress in leveraged AI-infrastructure credits. Scheduled Q3 earnings from Schwab, Blackstone, Travelers and Truist create discrete event risk inside the window, while CoreWeave faces continuation risk from an already reported leveraged-AI selloff. I favor earnings-driven financials selectively and lean against the most indebted AI-infrastructure name.

  1. SCHW — confidence 68%. Charles Schwab reported record Q3 2026 results before the open on October 15: revenue of $7.17 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.69, above the listed consensus of $1.61, with the earnings call at 8:30 AM ET. This is an observed earnings event, not merely an expectation. The latest verifiable quote is $97.65 in premarket trading at 2026-10-15, above the October 14 regular-session close of $96.80, implying an observed post-earnings/premarket gain of about 0.88% from the prior close; the remaining forecast is for further positive follow-through as investors digest net interest income, client cash and asset-gathering commentary. Price/volume evidence supports a constructive reaction: October 14 volume was 13.13 million shares versus a reported average of about 7.91-8.35 million, showing elevated interest into the print, though that volume preceded the release and does not by itself prove continuation. The strongest counter-evidence is the broader financial-sector and rate-sensitive selloff: hotter CPI has raised rate-hike odds, which could cap the rally if guidance on cash sorting or net interest margin disappoints. Verified completed daily bars available in the sources consulted are insufficient to report a full five-session OHLCV series, five-day return, 20-day high/low, or verified 20-day average share volume; those figures are null rather than estimated. A close back below the October 14 close of $96.80 would invalidate the positive earnings-follow-through thesis. Latest quote: $97.65, 2026-10-15 premarket, delayed, source https://www.investing.com/equities/charles-schwab. Reference price is that premarket quote; market cap and average volume are as reported by the same source/Yahoo Finance, and avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from the reported 7.991 million-share average volume times the $96.80 October 14 close.
    Return: 1.44%; alpha: 0.93%.
  2. BX — confidence 58%. Blackstone is scheduled to report Q3 2026 results during the morning of October 15, with TradingEconomics listing an AM release and consensus EPS of $1.46; the exact release minute is not verified, so event_time uses the dated scheduled session rather than an invented timestamp. This is an officially scheduled catalyst, and anticipation is already visible: BX closed October 14 at $106.21, down 3.43% on 7.58-7.59 million shares, well above the reported 4.51-5.10 million average, suggesting de-risking into the print. The latest verifiable quote is $106.60 in premarket trading at 5:04 AM EDT, only 0.37% above the prior close, so the market has not resolved the earnings outcome. I forecast down because the stock entered the event after a high-volume decline and because private-markets fee-related earnings and realizations can disappoint when rate expectations rise; however, this is inference, not a reported miss. The strongest counter-evidence is the modest premarket bounce and the possibility that strong fundraising or deployment news triggers a short-covering rally. The October 14 bar was open $108.90, high $109.99, low $105.44, close $106.21, volume 7,584,200; the remaining completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-day high/low and verified 20-day average share volume were not available in the consulted sources and are null. A premarket/regular-session move above $109.99, the October 14 high, would invalidate the downside thesis. Latest quote: $106.60, 2026-10-15 5:04 AM EDT premarket, delayed, source https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bx. Market cap is CNBC's $126.868 billion; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from MarketWatch's 4.51 million average share volume times the $106.21 October 14 close.
    Return: 3.20%; alpha: -3.71%.
  3. CRWV — confidence 72%. CoreWeave is the highest-conviction downside selection because the negative catalyst has already occurred and the move shows signs of continuation rather than stabilization. On October 14, CRWV fell 15.46% to $65.78 on 108.45-111.21 million shares, roughly 3.7 times its reported 29.61-30.02 million average volume, after investors focused on debt-funded AI buildout risk, its bonds and broader AI-infrastructure risk-off sentiment following hot CPI. The latest verifiable quote is $62.77 in premarket trading at 9:21 AM EDT, down another 4.58% from the October 14 close, implying an observed post-selloff/premarket decline of about 4.58%; the remaining forecast is for continued pressure over the rest of the window as leveraged-AI concerns and rising rate expectations persist. This is sentiment and funding-cost repricing rather than a newly reported fundamental earnings event; CoreWeave's next earnings report is listed as expected on November 9 or November 11, 2026, so no same-day company catalyst is verified. The strongest counter-evidence is the stock's extreme one-day decline and its 52-week low near $60.55, which could attract bargain hunting or produce a violent short squeeze. The verified October 14 completed bar is open $71.74, high $72.52, low $64.41, close $65.78, volume 108,452,700; the other four completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-day high/low and verified 20-day average share volume were not available in the consulted sources and are null. A recovery above the October 14 close of $65.78 would invalidate the continuation thesis. Latest quote: $62.77, 2026-10-15 9:21 AM EDT premarket, delayed, source https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/crwv. Market cap is MarketWatch's $36.28 billion; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from its 29.61 million average share volume times the $62.77 premarket quote.
    Return: 6.86%; alpha: -7.37%.
  4. TRV — confidence 55%. Travelers is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results on October 16, with Yahoo Finance listing the earnings call at 9:00 AM EDT; the exact release time is not verified, so event_time reflects the scheduled call date/time rather than an assumed release minute. The catalyst has not occurred, so the trade is an anticipation and event-risk position: insurers can move sharply on catastrophe losses, underlying underwriting margins and investment income. TRV closed October 14 at $377.82, up 1.22% on 1.31 million shares, slightly below its reported 1.63 million average volume, indicating no obvious pre-positioning or unusual accumulation. I forecast a modest upside move because the stock enters the print near the upper end of its recent range and property-casualty results can benefit from favorable prior-year reserve development, but confidence is limited because the outcome is genuinely binary and the broader market is risk-off. The strongest counter-evidence is that a large catastrophe-loss disclosure or weak underlying combined ratio could reverse the move quickly. The verified October 14 completed bar is open $370.51, high $377.94, low $367.00, close $377.82, volume 1,311,500; the remaining completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-day high/low and verified 20-day average share volume were not available in the consulted sources and are null. A close below $367.00, the October 14 low, before the release would weaken the constructive pre-earnings setup. Latest verifiable quote: $377.82, October 14 regular-session close, delayed, source https://investor.travelers.com/investor-toolkit/historical-prices/default.aspx. Market cap is $78.804 billion per Yahoo/CNBC; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from Yahoo's 1.626876 million average share volume times the $377.82 close.
    Return: 0.89%; alpha: 0.38%.
  5. TFC — confidence 54%. Truist is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results on October 16, with Yahoo Finance listing the earnings call at 8:00 AM EDT; the exact release time is not verified, so event_time uses the scheduled call time. The event has not occurred, and the position is therefore an anticipation trade. I forecast down because the current bank-earnings backdrop is unfavorable: Reuters reported a sweep of disappointing bank results this week, and Yahoo reported that Bank of America fell about 5% after a $1.2 billion regulatory penalty, while Wells Fargo declined after softer revenue. TFC closed October 14 at $45.92, down 1.54% on 6.35 million shares, and its after-hours quote was $45.98, essentially flat, so little earnings-specific information appears reflected yet. The latest verifiable regular-session close is used as reference because no verified intraday October 15 quote was found. The strongest counter-evidence is that Truist could benefit from higher-for-longer rate expectations through net interest income, and the stock's modest decline suggests the market is not aggressively positioned for a miss. The verified October 14 completed bar is close $45.92 with volume 6,354,944; its open/high/low and the other completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-day high/low and verified 20-day average share volume were not available in the consulted sources and are null. A close above $47, accompanied by positive net-interest-income guidance, would invalidate the downside thesis. Latest quote: $45.98 after hours at 4:26 PM EDT on 2026-10-14, delayed, source https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/TFC. Market cap is CNBC's $56.097 billion; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd is calculated from Yahoo's 7.314059 million average share volume times the $45.98 after-hours quote.
    Return: 2.92%; alpha: -3.43%.

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DeepSeek

DeepSeek: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Window runs 2026-10-15T14:22Z to 2026-10-16T14:22Z and captures the 2026-10-16 US opening gap. The 2026-10-14 tape was mixed-to-weak: S&P 500 ~flat at 7,805.45, Nasdaq lower on a chip selloff, big-bank earnings mixed and a hotter CPI print, so the event-driven single-stock gaps dominate and broad risk appetite is only a mild headwind. All five selections have a confirmed catalyst whose occurrence or expected occurrence time falls inside the window: three report after the close on 2026-10-15 (Alcoa, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt) and two report before the open on 2026-10-16 (Truist, Travelers). Each is forecast from its latest verifiable 2026-10-15 intraday quote, not from the 2026-10-14 close. Direction is split 2 up / 3 down, sized to the implied options move for each name. The main shared risk is that a risk-off continuation (chips, rates) truncates any idiosyncratic bounce and amplifies misses.

  1. JBHT — confidence 65%. J.B. Hunt reports Q3 2026 after the close on 2026-10-15 (confirmed); that is an event inside the window and it drives the 2026-10-16 opening gap. Verified facts: management pre-announced at an industry conference that Q3 operating income would fall 5-10% sequentially, an unusual seasonal deterioration; consensus EPS ~$1.81-1.83 on ~$3.58B revenue; EPS estimates were cut ~16% over 60 days; the drivers are ~$25M higher driver costs and ~$10M fuel headwind, concentrated in intermodal drayage. The 2026-10-14 close was $232.16 (+1.36%) but the stock sits below both its 50-day ($253.97) and 200-day ($244.49) averages with RSI 40. Counter-evidence (strongest against my down call): Q2 beat by ~10% ($1.91 vs $1.73), the Street stays Buy with a $282.17 mean target, and October bid season could deliver mid-to-high single-digit 2027 rate increases. Price/volume evidence is mixed - the last bar closed near its high on above-average volume, which is a continuation risk for a bounce. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $229.39 (Robinhood, timestamp not verified), already ~1.2% below the prior close; that decline is elapsed, not part of the forecast. I expect the pre-announced margin squeeze plus cautious pricing commentary to drive the gap lower. Invalidation: in-line or beat EPS with constructive 2027 pricing commentary, or a close back above the 20-day high $242.45.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/jbht/history/): 2026-10-08 O222.62 H228.94 L222.62 C228.42 V1,028,742; 2026-10-09 O228.42 H231.27 L226.69 C229.26 V713,242; 2026-10-12 O229.41 H230.58 L227.73 C228.31 V766,245; 2026-10-13 O228.92 H230.63 L224.66 C229.04 V994,843; 2026-10-14 O229.02 H232.70 L226.50 C232.16 V1,280,550. return_5d_pct=+4.28%. high_20d=242.45, low_20d=222.11, avg_volume_20d=1,058,412 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14).
    Return: -1.41%; alpha: 0.90%.
  2. TRV — confidence 60%. Travelers reports Q3 2026 before the open on 2026-10-16 (confirmed), inside the window, so the catalyst is the opening gap on 2026-10-16. Verified facts: consensus EPS ~$6.90-7.25 on ~$11.3B revenue, a ~11-16% y/y earnings decline; a softening property market and catastrophe losses are the swing factors; the stock closed 2026-10-14 at $377.82 (+1.22%), near its 52-week high of $398.70, up ~40% y/y, with RSI 63.8; consensus analyst stance is Neutral with a mean target of ~$360.67 (below spot). Counter-evidence (strongest against my down call): Travelers nearly doubled estimates last quarter and carries a multi-quarter beat streak with PEAD +5.7%, so a benign catastrophe quarter could produce another upside surprise and squeeze the extended tape higher. Price/volume evidence shows a steady uptrend, which supports continuation risk for longs. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $375.57 (eToro, delayed), ~0.6% below the prior close. With the stock extended and consensus already modelling a y/y decline, I expect a sell-the-news gap lower. Invalidation: a large reserve release or much-lower-than-feared cat losses pushing EPS well above $7.50, or a close above the 20-day high $382.97.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/trv/history/): 2026-10-08 O360.63 H372.13 L360.12 C370.27 V1,076,125; 2026-10-09 O368.11 H370.91 L367.33 C368.75 V753,269; 2026-10-12 O370.06 H372.64 L368.69 C371.68 V725,397; 2026-10-13 O373.76 H374.49 L370.23 C373.28 V986,087; 2026-10-14 O370.51 H377.94 L367.00 C377.82 V1,311,841. return_5d_pct=+4.77%. high_20d=382.97, low_20d=353.79, avg_volume_20d=1,175,752 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14).
    Return: 0.89%; alpha: -1.40%.
  3. IBKR — confidence 60%. Interactive Brokers reports Q3 2026 after the close on 2026-10-15 (confirmed), inside the window; the reaction prints in the 2026-10-16 opening gap. Verified facts: consensus EPS $0.67 (+17.8% y/y) on ~$1.87B revenue (+12.7% y/y); client accounts +35% y/y to 5.576M and DARTs +6% y/y; Q2 beat by 11.3%; Street is Buy with a $104.04 mean target (~24% above the 2026-10-14 close). Counter-evidence (strongest against my up call): EPS estimates were cut 3.6% over 60 days on softer trading activity, and the stock fell -3.83% on 2026-10-14 on the largest volume of the lookback, closing at $84.14 below its 50-day MA ($90.35) with RSI 38.5, so momentum is negative and a guidance-driven miss would be punished. Price/volume evidence supports reversal risk rather than continuation for longs, but the sell-off looks like pre-print de-risking rather than a fundamental break given 75-80% operating margins. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $82.29 at 2026-10-15T14:12Z (delayed regular session, sina), already ~2.2% lower in the elapsed part of the window; that move is not part of the forecast. I expect a post-print relief bounce, direction up. Invalidation: Q3 revenue below ~$1.83B, a decline in client cash/NII, or a close below the 20-day low $83.60.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ibkr/history/): 2026-10-08 O87.11 H87.79 L86.28 C86.47 V2,991,462; 2026-10-09 O87.05 H88.28 L86.47 C87.87 V2,423,508; 2026-10-12 O88.22 H89.11 L87.72 C87.89 V3,015,828; 2026-10-13 O87.70 H88.02 L86.09 C87.49 V2,885,108; 2026-10-14 O86.02 H86.84 L83.62 C84.14 V4,562,558. return_5d_pct=-4.10%. high_20d=93.94, low_20d=83.60, avg_volume_20d=3,806,154 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14).
    Return: 4.10%; alpha: 3.59%.
  4. AA — confidence 56%. Alcoa reports Q3 2026 after the close on 2026-10-15 (confirmed), inside the window, so the catalyst is the 2026-10-16 opening gap. Verified facts: consensus EPS ~$1.54 on ~$3.78-3.80B revenue, down from $2.12 EPS sequentially; alumina weakness and cost inflation (carbon, Canadian tariffs, restart costs) offset strong aluminium pricing (aluminium sales +~50% y/y, alumina -~20%); EPS estimates cut ~3.16% in two months; the 2026-10-14 close was $40.08, a weak close near the $39.49 session low, and the stock is down ~5.7% over five sessions into the print. Counter-evidence (strongest against my down call): the Street is net Buy with a $59.90 mean target (~50% above spot) and Barclays argued near-term pressures are largely reflected, so a low bar plus strong aluminium could produce a squeeze higher. Price/volume evidence shows a weak close and negative pre-event drift, which supports continuation down. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $39.25 at 2026-10-15T14:02Z (delayed regular session, sina), already ~2.1% lower in the elapsed window; that decline is not part of the forecast. I expect the after-close reaction to extend lower on margin compression and soft alumina. Invalidation: an aluminium-driven beat-and-raise, or a close back above the 20-day high $47.49.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aa/history/): 2026-10-08 O42.01 H42.98 L41.84 C42.83 V4,233,988; 2026-10-09 O43.09 H43.28 L41.98 C42.20 V4,068,471; 2026-10-12 O41.68 H42.05 L41.41 C41.67 V4,170,911; 2026-10-13 O41.43 H41.78 L40.74 C41.49 V4,698,076; 2026-10-14 O40.91 H41.26 L39.49 C40.08 V5,681,700. return_5d_pct=-5.65%. high_20d=47.49, low_20d=39.49, avg_volume_20d=4,153,501 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14; arithmetic mean of daily share volume).
    Return: 10.74%; alpha: -11.25%.
  5. TFC — confidence 54%. Truist reports Q3 2026 before the open on 2026-10-16 (confirmed), inside the window, so the catalyst is the 2026-10-16 opening gap. Verified facts: consensus EPS ~$1.11-1.17 on ~$5.36B revenue (+~2.3% y/y); management guided Q3 revenue +1% q/q; the 2026-10-14 close was $45.57, down ~9% into the print, at 0.95x book and ~10.5x trailing earnings, with RSI 33 (oversold) and below its 50-day ($49.41) and 200-day ($49.63) averages. Counter-evidence (strongest against my up call): post-earnings announcement drift after the prior report was -9.1%, and the mixed big-bank prints of 2026-10-13/14 (hotter CPI, softer capital-markets tone) leave genuine sector risk; the falling 50-day average is a real downtrend. Price/volume evidence shows a low RSI and a stock near the bottom of its range, which supports mean reversion but not a confirmed turn. Observed 2026-10-15 intraday quote: $45.42 (eastmoney, delayed), roughly flat-to-lower versus the prior close. I expect a low bar and cheap valuation to produce a modestly positive gap, direction up. Invalidation: a miss on net interest income or credit, a guidance cut, or a close below the 20-day low $45.06.\n5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US/Eastern sessions, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tfc/history/): 2026-10-08 O45.23 H46.24 L45.07 C46.18 V8,881,056; 2026-10-09 O45.87 H46.32 L45.73 C46.11 V6,790,114; 2026-10-12 O46.23 H46.71 L46.23 C46.64 V6,203,922; 2026-10-13 O46.96 H47.21 L45.88 C45.92 V6,495,972; 2026-10-14 O45.42 H45.70 L45.06 C45.57 V7,568,584. return_5d_pct=-0.02%. high_20d=49.75, low_20d=45.06, avg_volume_20d=8,217,215 shares (20 completed sessions 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14).
    Return: 2.92%; alpha: 2.41%.

Full prediction and audit record

GPT-6

GPT-6: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Bearish on highly leveraged AI infrastructure and event-disrupted aerospace stocks, selectively constructive on companies with confirmed earnings strength or a potentially favorable imminent earnings surprise. September US inflation data and renewed concerns about debt-financed AI investment have triggered significant technology-sector selling. The strongest negative catalysts are CoreWeave's credit-market deterioration and Rocket Lab's confirmed Neutron launch delay. Charles Schwab's positive earnings failed to prevent selling, while Marsh's earnings beat produced a substantial positive reaction. Interactive Brokers reports after today's close and offers direct exposure to an upcoming binary catalyst. These are prospective forecasts for the remaining period through 2026-10-16T14:22:00.000Z, not predictions of price changes that have already occurred. The authoritative scoring window began at 2026-10-15T14:22:40.592Z. Exact traded prices at that starting instant were not independently verified, so elapsed-window returns cannot be calculated. Available regular-session quotes are timestamped approximately 10:45-10:51 a.m. US Eastern on October 15. Quote providers label these prices real-time, but the underlying feeds include exchange-specific real-time and potentially delayed consolidated data. Completed-session calculations exclusively use September 17 through October 14, 2026, excluding October 15. The 20-session average dollar volume is calculated as the arithmetic mean of each completed session's closing price multiplied by its share volume. All five stocks meet the $5 price, $1 billion market-capitalization and $20 million average daily dollar-volume requirements. Market capitalizations retain the source's reported precision. The five forecasts carry substantial overnight, macroeconomic, sentiment and reversal risk.

  1. RKLB — confidence 64%. THESIS: Bearish continuation following a verified deterioration in Rocket Lab's Neutron commercialization timeline. Rocket Lab announced on October 14 that Neutron's inaugural launch is now expected in 2027, rather than the previously targeted fourth quarter of 2026. The company identified manufacturing problems involving the forward dome. This changes the expected timing of a strategically important medium-lift launch capability and potentially delays related commercial milestones. The schedule impact is factual; the extent of future revenue delays is an inference, not a reported financial revision. CATALYST AND REACTION: The announcement followed the October 14 regular-session close of $59.18. The latest verified quote of $53.20 represents a further 10.10% decline from that pre-announcement close. The decline from $59.18 has already occurred and is not included in the expected_move_pct forecast. The stock was already weakening before the announcement, falling from $71.92 on October 7 to $59.18 on October 14. This means the full multiday decline cannot be attributed to the Neutron announcement. Further negative analyst revisions and uncertainty about development milestones could continue influencing price before the next session ends. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted prices, USD, volume in shares. Exactly five completed sessions, oldest to newest: 2026-10-08: open=70.56, high=71.65, low=67.71, close=68.40, volume=22135916 2026-10-09: open=68.71, high=69.25, low=66.98, close=68.21, volume=14800926 2026-10-12: open=67.88, high=68.07, low=65.12, close=65.71, volume=14344047 2026-10-13: open=64.07, high=64.56, low=63.08, close=64.22, volume=15476258 2026-10-14: open=62.81, high=63.56, low=58.84, close=59.18, volume=20903039 return_5d_pct=-17.7141, calculated using the October 7 close of 71.92. high_20d=78.28; low_20d=58.84; avg_volume_20d=21345600.6 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=1490105014.91. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rklb/history/ PRICE ACTION: The five completed sessions show lower highs, lower lows and predominantly closes near session lows. October 14 closed at 59.18, only 0.34 above its 58.84 low, with volume of 20.90 million shares, slightly below the completed 20-session average of 21.35 million. The selloff preceded the announcement and therefore was not exclusively caused by it. At the latest quote, the price is below the completed 20-session low, indicating a fresh breakdown. This supports downside continuation but also increases short-covering and emotional-exhaustion risk. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=53.20 USD; quote_time=2026-10-15T14:51:00Z, minute-resolution timestamp; quote_type=provider-labelled real-time regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rklb/; reference_price=53.20. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-15T14:51:00Z: open=53.86, high_so_far=55.21, low_so_far=49.69, cumulative_volume=23391478. These are incomplete-session figures and are excluded from historical calculations. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified same-time-of-day baseline. The recovery from the intraday low of 49.69 to 53.20 is the strongest immediate counter-evidence to additional downside. FORECAST: An additional 3.8% decline from the latest verified quote to the window end. The forecast concerns only the move remaining after this quote; the exact move between the authoritative prediction_time and the quote is unavailable. The market has already repriced the confirmed delay substantially, but development uncertainty, potential target reductions and weak momentum could cause further selling. Strongest opposing evidence consists of the substantial intraday rebound, existing analyst Buy ratings and Rocket Lab's ongoing Electron and space-systems businesses. A sustained recovery above the verified October 14 close of $59.18, or a concrete favorable manufacturing milestone that changes the launch timeline, would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis. The largest risk is an oversold rebound following a panic-driven repricing.
    Return: 2.36%; alpha: -2.87%.
  2. CRWV — confidence 63%. THESIS: Bearish continuation driven by documented credit-market stress and deteriorating investor confidence in debt-financed AI infrastructure. Reuters reported on October 15 that CoreWeave's shares and bonds were falling amid concerns about approximately $50 billion of debt and the sustainability of its capital-intensive expansion. Bond yields on some obligations rose into distressed territory. These credit-market developments are observed facts; a future default, inability to refinance, or collapse in demand has not been established and must not be presented as an outcome. CATALYST AND REACTION: The credit deterioration was already affecting trading on October 14, when CRWV fell 15.46% from the preceding close. Additional weakness appeared on October 15. A reliable traded price immediately before the beginning of the credit-related repricing was not identified; pre_event_price=null and observed_event_reaction_pct=null. The October 14 closing price of $65.78 and latest quote of $61.75 establish a subsequent 6.13% decline, but that previous-close change is not a complete event-attributed reaction. The stock was already declining before the latest credit news. Both the October 14 selloff and the additional decline observed today must be excluded from the remaining-move forecast. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted prices, USD, volume in shares. Exactly five completed sessions, oldest to newest: 2026-10-08: open=86.81, high=86.85, low=80.63, close=81.58, volume=41865500 2026-10-09: open=82.75, high=83.45, low=81.21, close=82.08, volume=19860866 2026-10-12: open=80.33, high=81.25, low=79.03, close=80.26, volume=18778721 2026-10-13: open=76.32, high=78.94, low=76.11, close=77.81, volume=33933806 2026-10-14: open=71.74, high=72.52, low=64.41, close=65.78, volume=107334557 return_5d_pct=-25.6303, calculated using the October 7 close of 88.45. high_20d=93.21; low_20d=64.41; avg_volume_20d=35189529.9 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=2875401200.31. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crwv/history/ PRICE ACTION: October 14 opened below the preceding close and fell through the previous completed-session lows. Its 65.78 closing price was close to the session low of 64.41, while volume reached 107.33 million shares, approximately 3.05 times the completed 20-session average. This is strong evidence of unusually heavy full-session selling, although heavy volume can also signal capitulation. The current quote below the prior 20-session low of 64.41 confirms additional price deterioration since the historical snapshot. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=61.75 USD; quote_time=2026-10-15T14:51:00Z, minute-resolution timestamp; quote_type=provider-labelled real-time regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crwv/history/; reference_price=61.75. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-15T14:51:00Z: open=61.43, high_so_far=62.22, low_so_far=59.51, cumulative_volume=44765068. These figures are not completed daily observations. No verified same-time-of-day average volume was available, so a relative intraday volume comparison cannot be established. FORECAST: A further 4.0% decline from the latest verified quote. Credit-market deterioration represents a potential change in financing costs and funding flexibility, rather than sentiment alone. Continued lender concern could outweigh management's assurances about contracted demand. However, the stock has already absorbed a dramatic decline. The strongest counter-evidence is management's reported confidence that its backlog supports debt obligations, along with the rebound from today's 59.51 intraday low. A sustained recovery above the October 14 close of $65.78, especially accompanied by verified improvement in bond prices or refinancing prospects, would invalidate the immediate bearish continuation thesis. Short covering and a broad AI-sector rebound are major risks. The authoritative window-start trade remains unverified, so its elapsed return is null and is not incorporated into the forecast.
    Return: 6.86%; alpha: -7.37%.
  3. IBKR — confidence 57%. THESIS: Bullish earnings-surprise hypothesis for Interactive Brokers Group. The company officially scheduled its third-quarter earnings announcement for approximately 4:00 p.m. US Eastern on October 15, followed by a conference call at 4:30 p.m. This event falls inside the forecast window, and the market can react in extended trading tonight and during Friday's regular-session opening. The report has not occurred as of the cited quote. No actual third-quarter financial results are assumed. CATALYST EXPECTATIONS: The investment thesis is that elevated trading activity and customer engagement may contribute to stronger operating results or management commentary than the market currently expects. This is an inference based on the brokerage business model and recent market volatility, not a verified Q3 earnings outcome. Schwab's strong reported client activity provides relevant sector context, but does not establish IBKR's own financial performance. The remaining window incorporates both anticipation before the release and the market's initial response after the release. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted prices, USD, volume in shares. Exactly five completed sessions, oldest to newest: 2026-10-08: open=87.11, high=87.79, low=86.28, close=86.47, volume=2991462 2026-10-09: open=87.05, high=88.28, low=86.47, close=87.87, volume=2423508 2026-10-12: open=88.22, high=89.11, low=87.72, close=87.89, volume=3015828 2026-10-13: open=87.70, high=88.02, low=86.09, close=87.49, volume=2885108 2026-10-14: open=86.02, high=86.84, low=83.62, close=84.14, volume=4541503 return_5d_pct=-4.1030, calculated using the October 7 close of 87.74. high_20d=93.94; low_20d=83.60; avg_volume_20d=3806154.35 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=336628361.63. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ibkr/history/ PRICE ACTION: October 14 produced a bearish gap and closed near the bottom of its range, with 4.54 million shares traded versus a 3.81 million completed-session average. The stock was already under selling pressure ahead of its earnings report and approached the 20-session low of 83.60. This is counter-evidence against an immediate bullish call, not confirmation of a rebound. The possibility that weak expectations have already been reflected in price supports a positive surprise hypothesis, but that remains unproven. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=83.18 USD; quote_time=2026-10-15T14:47:00Z, minute-resolution timestamp; quote_type=provider-labelled real-time regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ibkr/; reference_price=83.18. PARTIAL SESSION from an earlier quote-page snapshot at 2026-10-15T14:19:00Z: open=82.75, high_so_far=83.03, low_so_far=81.04, cumulative_volume=801442. The later price quote and earlier partial-session range are asynchronous snapshots; the earlier high is not asserted to remain the high at 14:47Z. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. EVENT REACTION: The announced earnings event has not yet occurred. pre_event_price=null and observed_event_reaction_pct=null for the scheduled report. The current price is approximately 1.14% below the October 14 close, reflecting current trading or anticipation, not a post-earnings reaction. The authoritative window-start price is also unavailable. FORECAST: A 3.2% increase from the latest verified quote to the window end, conditional on earnings and guidance supporting the market's growth expectations. Strongest counter-evidence is the recent breakdown, relatively elevated October 14 selling volume and negative sector response to Schwab's earnings. A materially disappointing earnings report, adverse customer-asset or activity trends, or sustained trading below the verified October 15 early-session low of $81.04 would invalidate the bullish thesis. This forecast has elevated binary-event risk, including a potential sharply negative opening gap on October 16.
    Return: 4.10%; alpha: 3.59%.
  4. SCHW — confidence 55%. THESIS: Modestly bearish continuation after a negative market response to Charles Schwab's reported third-quarter earnings. Schwab reported adjusted EPS of $1.69, above the approximately $1.66 consensus estimate, while revenue of approximately $7.17 billion fell slightly short of the $7.2 billion expectation. The company reported strong asset gathering, trading activity and net interest revenue. These favorable operating results are confirmed and constitute meaningful counter-evidence to the bearish forecast. The negative call instead reflects the observed selling response to a small revenue miss within a cautious financial-sector environment. CATALYST AND REACTION: The October 15 earnings release occurred before the regular session. Shares closed October 14 at $96.80 and subsequently traded at $92.56, a 4.38% decline from the verified preceding regular-session close. That decline is already observed, not part of the projected future move. The market reaction suggests investor concerns about expectations, valuation or the broader environment have outweighed the earnings beat so far. This interpretation of investor priorities is an inference, not an additional company-reported fact. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted prices, USD, volume in shares. Exactly five completed sessions, oldest to newest: 2026-10-08: open=95.60, high=97.18, low=95.43, close=96.87, volume=6529688 2026-10-09: open=97.48, high=97.48, low=96.37, close=96.70, volume=6473905 2026-10-12: open=97.07, high=97.82, low=96.69, close=97.06, volume=4573398 2026-10-13: open=97.30, high=97.69, low=95.81, close=95.94, volume=6823332 2026-10-14: open=95.75, high=97.21, low=95.06, close=96.80, volume=13085298 return_5d_pct=1.2764, calculated using the October 7 close of 95.58. high_20d=107.41; low_20d=94.70; avg_volume_20d=8391305.65 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=833600023.94. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/schw/history/ PRICE ACTION: October 14 reversed the previous session's weakness and closed at 96.80 after a wide range and strong 13.09 million-share volume, approximately 1.56 times the completed 20-session average. This pre-earnings buying is important counter-evidence to the bearish thesis. The October 15 earnings reaction subsequently produced a downside gap below the prior completed-session range and the 20-session low of 94.70. This supports a near-term negative repricing interpretation, although the stronger underlying business could attract buyers. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=92.56 USD; quote_time=2026-10-15T14:45:00Z, minute-resolution timestamp; quote_type=provider-labelled real-time regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/schw/history/; reference_price=92.56. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-15T14:45:00Z: open=93.40, high_so_far=93.40, low_so_far=91.38, cumulative_volume=4669265. The stock has rebounded from its partial-session low but remained below its opening price at that timestamp. Relative intraday volume cannot be reliably evaluated without a matching time-of-day baseline. FORECAST: A further decline of 1.7% from the latest quote through the window end. The negative gap and break below the verified 20-session range provide the continuation rationale, while strong earnings, asset growth and the rebound from today's low create substantial reversal risk. A sustained recovery above $95.06, the verified October 14 session low, or materially favorable new management guidance that changes revenue expectations, would invalidate the short-horizon bearish thesis. The exact move from the authoritative window-start trade to this quote cannot be determined; the forecast applies only after the verified quote.
    Return: 1.44%; alpha: -1.95%.
  5. MRSH — confidence 53%. THESIS: Bullish but cautious continuation following a verified earnings beat from Marsh. The company reported third-quarter revenue of $6.86 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.03, exceeding market expectations of approximately $6.63 billion and $1.96 per share. Underlying revenue grew approximately 5%, while adjusted EPS increased 10% year over year. The reported operating performance supports improved near-term fundamentals and investor confidence. However, most of the initial positive repricing has already occurred, limiting the remaining expected move. CATALYST AND REACTION: Marsh released earnings before the October 15 regular session. The previous regular-session close was $178.40 on October 14. The latest verified price of $189.83 represents an observed 6.41% rise from that close. This rise must not be counted as a future forecast. Unlike a purely sentiment-driven rally, the move is supported by an observed earnings and revenue beat. Nevertheless, part of the reaction may reflect short covering or a temporary reassessment of previously subdued expectations. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted prices, USD, volume in shares. Exactly five completed sessions, oldest to newest: 2026-10-08: open=174.28, high=176.86, low=172.79, close=176.67, volume=3941124 2026-10-09: open=175.64, high=177.79, low=175.41, close=175.76, volume=1966358 2026-10-12: open=176.28, high=176.70, low=175.42, close=176.54, volume=2288425 2026-10-13: open=177.63, high=178.34, low=175.80, close=177.01, volume=3660997 2026-10-14: open=178.52, high=179.40, low=176.44, close=178.40, volume=2471958 return_5d_pct=2.7295, calculated using the October 7 close of 173.66. high_20d=179.40; low_20d=166.48; avg_volume_20d=3028862 shares; avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=524002144.98. History source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mrsh/history/ PRICE ACTION: The preceding five sessions showed a constructive upward bias, although October 9 was negative and the path was not uniformly strong. The October 14 close of 178.40 was only $1.00 below the completed 20-session high of 179.40, indicating the stock was already testing resistance before earnings. October 14 volume of 2.47 million shares was below the completed 20-session average of 3.03 million, so the earlier advance was not conclusively supported by expanding participation. October 15 opened above the entire prior 20-session range, supporting a positive earnings-breakout interpretation. Whether that breakout can be sustained remains uncertain. INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price=189.83 USD; quote_time=2026-10-15T14:49:00Z, minute-resolution timestamp; quote_type=provider-labelled real-time regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mrsh/statistics/; reference_price=189.83. PARTIAL SESSION from an earlier snapshot at 2026-10-15T14:33:00Z: open=182.80, high_so_far=189.54, low_so_far=181.20, cumulative_volume=938468. The partial-session high and volume reflect that earlier snapshot, not the later 14:49Z quote. In particular, the later quote can exceed the earlier snapshot's recorded high. These partial-session observations are excluded from the historical statistics. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified time-matched baseline. FORECAST: An additional 1.6% increase from the latest verified quote to the window end, driven by continued reassessment of earnings quality, underlying growth and operating efficiency. The positive earnings surprise and break above the 20-session high support this direction. Strongest counter-evidence is the already-realized 6.41% price appreciation, which increases profit-taking risk. The earnings report also identifies continued challenges from softer insurance and reinsurance pricing, making the improvement less uniform across businesses. A sustained reversal below today's verified opening price of $182.80 would undermine the immediate earnings-continuation hypothesis; a reversal below the former 20-session high of $179.40 would invalidate the broader breakout interpretation. The exact trade at the authoritative prediction_time is unavailable, so the elapsed-window return is null and does not contribute to the remaining forecast.
    Return: -1.23%; alpha: -1.74%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Event Gaps: each model's average alpha vs SPY over SPY across its runs

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

ModelRunsAvg picks with positive alphaAvg alpha vs SPY
Claude Opus 5.5353.33%+0.85%
ChatGPT160.00%+0.50%
Gemini 1.5 Pro1353.85%+0.37%
Grok 4.51444.29%+0.31%
DeepSeek1553.67%+0.16%
Grok 4140.00%-0.09%
Perplexity1444.29%-0.10%
Muse Spark 1.11548.00%-0.24%
Claude Opus 5140.00%-0.25%
GPT-6835.00%-0.48%
Gemini 3 Pro230.00%-0.60%
Claude Sonnet 5.5832.50%-1.33%
GPT-5.6 Sol740.00%-1.42%
Meta AI - Muse Spark140.00%-1.84%
Kimi120.00%-5.18%
View settlement prices
SymbolStartEndSourceNotes
AA39.3500000043.57500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AA/history/
AAPL344.70000000344.39500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/
AMZN251.92640000253.44990000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/
BX105.93750000109.32500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BX/history/
CRWV60.1850000064.31350000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWV/history/
IBKR82.2750000085.65000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBKR/history/
JBHT232.61000000229.33000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JBHT/history/
MRSH189.35000000187.02000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRSH/history/
MSFT533.91000000537.24500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/
NVDA215.81500000216.92010000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/
PLD128.56500000127.71000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLD/history/
RKLB52.3900000053.62500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RKLB/history/
SCHW92.2000000093.52660000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCHW/history/
SPY767.08000000770.99000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
TFC46.2500000047.60000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TFC/history/
TRV382.50000000385.89000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRV/history/
TSLA356.68400000365.19000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/
TSM413.35000000414.26000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM/history/
USB57.2950000058.70000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USB/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v13, SHA-256 d4ec47c53737b2f8ffbf2eca186f45aac4d030f6255dd1b3e9a5398e709d2d98. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.

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