Asked Oct 16, 11:13 AM EDT (midday). GPT-6, Gemini 3 Pro, Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity, Grok 4 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 16, 11:13 AM EDT to Oct 19, 11:13 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 1/5 | 20.00% | 0.76% | -0.15% | 0.91% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1/5 | 20.00% | -0.69% | -0.15% | -0.55% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.40% | -0.15% | 0.55% |
| Perplexity | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.07% | -0.15% | -0.92% |
| Grok 4 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -2.60% | -0.15% | -2.46% |
| DeepSeek | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.53% | -0.15% | -1.38% |
GPT-6
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US equities are experiencing a rotation away from highly valued AI infrastructure and semiconductor companies toward selected consumer, financial, materials, and defensive assets. On October 16, the Nasdaq was pressured by renewed concerns about AI financing, semiconductor competition, and elevated capital expenditures, while financial stocks supported the Dow. Declining Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar are benefiting gold. For the October 16-19 forecast window, I favor three securities with positive relative momentum and identifiable catalysts—URBN, FOX, and GDX—alongside two stocks facing potentially favorable earnings announcements before Monday's market open: FITB and CLF. The first three selections offer exposure to company-specific strength and defensive rotation, while the earnings candidates provide greater potential upside at the cost of substantial binary event risk. The main portfolio risks are an unexpected recovery in technology leadership, renewed increases in Treasury yields, disappointing Monday earnings, and profit-taking after Friday's advances. All five selections are equal-weight long positions. The objective is to outperform SPY between October 16, 2026 at 15:13:09.139Z and October 19, 2026 at 15:13:00.000Z. Changes already realized before submission are not part of the prospective forecast. Current quotes are the latest independently retrievable intraday observations, but their reported timestamps differ and they are not synchronized execution prices. Market sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-mixed-tech-wobbles-again-tesla-gains-2026-10-16/ ; https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-10-16/ ; https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rebounds-one-week-low-dollar-slips-2026-10-15/
- URBN — confidence 67.0000%. THESIS: Urban Outfitters combines positive earnings momentum, strong relative price performance, and a new analyst catalyst. On October 16, Needham analyst Tom Nikic initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $100 price target, emphasizing growth opportunities at Nuuly and Free People, operating-margin improvement at Urban Outfitters, and continued resilience at Anthropologie. Unlike many retailers, Urban Outfitters has multiple growth drivers spanning traditional retail and subscription services. Its previously reported second-quarter revenue increased approximately 10%, and comparable retail sales grew 6.2%. These are realized business results rather than speculative future projections. TECHNICAL EVIDENCE: URBN advanced approximately 7.95% over the five completed sessions ending October 15, with Thursday's closing price of $87.40 near its completed 20-session high of $88.06. Friday's intraday advance extended that momentum. The latest verified quote is $89.48 at 2026-10-16T10:47:00-04:00, approximately 2.37% above Thursday's close. This is a site-reported real-time regular-session quote, although feed latency beyond the displayed timestamp is unverified. The October 16 partial-session high reached $90.59, indicating that the stock encountered some profit-taking after its initial advance. FORECAST: I expect continued institutional buying and positive relative momentum through Monday, potentially allowing URBN to outperform SPY even if the broad market remains directionless. The analyst initiation could continue attracting attention beyond its initial Friday reaction. RISKS: The stock has already rallied substantially, the price is near a 52-week high, and the average analyst target is approximately $89.43, near the latest quote. Consumer-spending weakness, changing apparel demand, or a reversal below the October 15 low of $85.39 would undermine the thesis. The forecast concerns additional performance from the scoring-window reference, not Friday's already observed gain. Evidence: https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/urban-outfitters-initiated-with-a-buy-at-needham-thefly-news ; https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/urbn/history/ ; https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/urbn/
Return: -2.98%; alpha: -2.83%. - FOX — confidence 65.0000%. THESIS: Fox Corporation received a significant positive analyst revision on October 16. Bank of America upgraded the company two rating levels, from Underperform to Buy, and raised its price target from $54 to $85. The principal catalyst is Fox's proposed approximately $22 billion acquisition of Roku. Bank of America believes that combining Fox's live sports, news, and entertainment content with Roku's connected-TV distribution and advertising platform could materially improve the combined company's long-term economics. Both companies' shareholders have approved transaction-related proposals, although regulatory review remains unresolved. The proposed transaction is a substantive strategic development rather than a simple promotional announcement. TECHNICAL EVIDENCE: FOX gained 2.62% on October 15, closing at $57.14, before the latest Bank of America upgrade. The latest independently retrieved quote is $58.22 at 2026-10-16T10:40:00-04:00, representing a 1.89% increase from Thursday's close. It is a site-reported real-time regular-session quote with unverified feed latency. Friday's partial-session high was $59.17, so the latest quote indicates some initial enthusiasm has already faded. The five completed sessions through October 15 showed relatively modest net appreciation, suggesting that Friday's upgrade is a more distinct catalyst than an already extended multiweek technical rally. FORECAST: I expect investors to continue reassessing Fox's strategic value and potential Roku synergies, supporting relative outperformance over the next trading session. Its lower sensitivity to AI infrastructure financing concerns may also help if the market continues rotating away from technology hardware. RISKS: Regulatory objections, integration complexity, financing requirements, potentially overstated synergies, and weakness in traditional television advertising could undermine the investment case. A sustained move below the verified October 15 low of $56.19 would weaken the short-term bullish thesis. The $85 analyst target is a longer-term valuation opinion, not a one-day price forecast. Evidence: https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/fox-corp-double-upgraded-to-buy-from-underperform-at-bofa-thefly-news ; https://www.reuters.com/business/ ; https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fox/history/
Return: -2.31%; alpha: -2.16%. - GDX — confidence 63.0000%. THESIS: VanEck Gold Miners ETF offers exposure to gold-producing companies at a time when investors are seeking alternatives to highly valued technology stocks. Gold has benefited from declining Treasury yields, a weaker US dollar, and concerns about the financing sustainability of the AI infrastructure boom. On October 16, spot gold was reported around $4,200 per ounce, with investors also responding to geopolitical uncertainty and elevated inflation. Gold-mining companies can experience amplified earnings sensitivity to changes in realized gold prices because some operating costs do not increase proportionately with revenue. This operating leverage could support mining shares if gold remains firm. TECHNICAL EVIDENCE: GDX rose 4.34% on October 15 after declining 4.40% on October 14, demonstrating both substantial volatility and renewed demand. The latest verified quote is $88.84 at 2026-10-16T11:04:00-04:00, approximately 2.09% above Thursday's $87.02 close. The quote is labeled real-time regular-session pricing, though its exact feed latency is unverified. Friday's observed partial-session range was $86.37-$89.22. GDX therefore exhibited relative strength during a period of pressure on technology shares. FORECAST: If Treasury yields remain under pressure and risk aversion persists into Monday, gold miners could outperform SPY. Unlike a single-company earnings selection, GDX distributes operating risk across numerous mining companies and offers a different return driver from consumer stocks and banks. RISKS: Gold miners are equities rather than direct gold holdings, so a broad market selloff can also pressure them. Mining margins face labor, energy, regulatory, and geopolitical risks. A rebound in the US dollar or Treasury yields could undermine gold prices. Friday's rally has already occurred, and the forecast requires additional relative appreciation after the scoring-window start. A sustained loss of the verified October 15 low near $84.12 would weaken the short-term bullish setup. Evidence: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rebounds-one-week-low-dollar-slips-2026-10-15/ ; https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-10-16/ ; https://stockanalysis.com/etf/gdx/ ; https://stockanalysis.com/etf/gdx/history/
Return: -2.24%; alpha: -2.09%. - FITB — confidence 57.0000%. THESIS: Fifth Third Bancorp is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Monday, October 19, before the market opens, with a conference call at 9:00 AM Eastern. This confirmed event occurs before the October 19 scoring endpoint at 11:13 AM Eastern and can therefore directly affect the measured return. The bullish hypothesis is that Fifth Third may benefit from resilient commercial banking activity, reasonably stable credit performance, and expectations for operating improvements. The broader financial sector has shown relative strength during the October 16 technology selloff, supported by positive earnings from several major US banks. These factors create a potentially favorable setting for Fifth Third, although they do not establish that its upcoming results will beat expectations. TECHNICAL EVIDENCE: FITB closed October 15 at $50.35, rising 1.43% after weakness earlier in the week. The latest independently verified quote is $51.17 at 2026-10-16T10:51:00-04:00, approximately 1.63% above Thursday's close. This is a site-reported real-time regular-session quote with unverified transmission latency. Friday's partial-session high reached $51.52, demonstrating positive pre-earnings positioning. The completed October 14 low of $49.09 provides a verified recent downside reference. FORECAST: I expect a modest favorable earnings reaction and relative strength versus SPY through Monday morning, provided results show stable asset quality and acceptable profitability. The expected earnings release is approximately 6:30 AM Eastern, with the confirmed conference call at 9:00 AM. The results have not yet occurred, and no positive earnings surprise is assumed as a fact. RISKS: Higher credit-loss provisions, disappointing net interest income, weaker loan demand, or negative management guidance could produce an adverse opening gap. Falling Treasury yields do not necessarily improve bank profitability because they can also pressure asset yields. The approximately 1.63% Friday advance is already reflected in the quote and cannot be counted as future performance. A sustained breakdown below $49.09 or materially weaker credit metrics would invalidate the bullish thesis. Evidence: https://ir.53.com/news/news-details/2025/Fifth-Third-Bancorp-Announces-Earnings-Release-Dates-for-2026-and-2027/default.aspx ; https://ir.53.com/home/default.aspx ; https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fitb/history/
Return: -0.43%; alpha: -0.28%. - CLF — confidence 53.0000%. THESIS: Cleveland-Cliffs provides the portfolio's highest-risk earnings catalyst. The company has officially scheduled third-quarter 2026 results before the US market opens on Monday, October 19, followed by a conference call at 8:30 AM Eastern. The earnings event will occur before the scoring endpoint and could produce a substantial price adjustment. Cleveland-Cliffs is an integrated North American steel producer with exposure to automotive manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and US industrial policy. Previously announced investments in electrical steel production and government-supported industrial projects provide potential longer-term support. The bullish hypothesis is that stronger steel pricing, operational efficiencies, or better-than-expected forward guidance could encourage investors to rebuild positions after recent weakness. These are expectations, not verified third-quarter results. TECHNICAL EVIDENCE: CLF declined from its October 9 close of $12.98 to $12.15 on October 15, with four consecutive completed-session closing declines following the October 9 rally. October 15 traded as low as $11.67 before recovering to close at $12.15, suggesting some demand at lower prices despite the bearish recent trend. The latest verified quote is $12.60 at 2026-10-16T10:47:00-04:00, representing a 3.70% gain from Thursday's close. It is a site-reported real-time regular-session quote with unverified precise latency. Friday's partial-session high was $12.67. This rebound suggests pre-earnings buying interest but also means a significant positive move has already occurred. FORECAST: CLF could outperform SPY by a substantial margin if Monday's earnings reveal improving steel margins, positive cash-flow trends, or stronger management expectations. The direct earnings catalyst makes the next trading session particularly relevant to the forecast. RISKS: This is the least certain selection. Cleveland-Cliffs reported significant losses in 2025, remains sensitive to steel price volatility and automotive demand, and faces tariff-related operating complications. Recent analyst estimates are mixed, with the stock's consensus rating around Hold. The Friday rally could reverse abruptly on disappointing earnings, weaker guidance, or increased financing concerns. A sustained decline below the verified October 15 low of $11.67 or a materially negative earnings announcement would invalidate the bullish thesis. The forecast does not count Friday's observed 3.70% increase as future performance. Evidence: https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/703/cleveland-cliffs-to-announce-third-quarter-2026-earnings ; https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/investors/news-events/ir-calendar ; https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/clf/history/
Return: 11.74%; alpha: 11.89%.
Gemini 3 Pro
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US market sentiment is anchored by strong financial sector earnings beats and stabilizing Treasury yields, favoring financials and select AI semiconductor leaders over broader market indices over the next trading session.
- BAC — confidence 70.0000%. Bank of America benefits from strong Q3 net interest income resilience and investment banking momentum, positioning it for short-term outperformance against SPY. Risks include broader financial sector profit taking.
Return: -2.47%; alpha: -2.32%. - GS — confidence 68.0000%. The Goldman Sachs Group demonstrates solid momentum behind rebounding debt underwriting and investment advisory revenues. Risks include macroeconomic interest rate volatility.
Return: -1.66%; alpha: -1.51%. - XLF — confidence 66.0000%. Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund captures broad sector inflows supported by solid quarterly results across major bank holdings. Risks include general market pullbacks.
Return: -1.16%; alpha: -1.01%. - MS — confidence 65.0000%. Morgan Stanley gains support from expanding wealth management asset inflows and stable wealth advisory fee growth. Risks include equity market volatility slowing asset management expansion.
Return: -1.37%; alpha: -1.22%. - TSM — confidence 62.0000%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing maintains upside momentum following strong Q3 earnings driven by persistent AI chip demand. Risks include East Asian geopolitical tension headlines.
Return: 3.18%; alpha: 3.33%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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SPY is flat into mid-October with rotation out of crowded megacap into quality healthcare, vertical software and nuclear power tied to AI data center demand. Fresh analyst actions on Oct 15 (UBS on REGN, Morgan Stanley on MANH, TD Cowen on NOW, CIBC on CEG) are driving pre-market gaps that have held, suggesting under-positioning. One-session trade favors following these upgrade-driven momentum names over broad market.
- REGN — confidence 71.0000%. UBS upgraded to Buy from Neutral and raised target $660 to $978 on Oct 15 citing Dupixent long-term opportunity, the strongest large-cap biopharma catalyst of the day. Stock held $792-806 range with 50-day MA $791.59 support, 3.6% upgrade day shows demand. Q3 results Oct 30 provide further catalyst, valuation still 22% below new target. Risk: trading near 52-week high $859, could mean-revert if healthcare rotation fades.
Return: -1.65%; alpha: -1.50%. - MANH — confidence 68.0000%. Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight from Equalweight, target $180 to $250 on Oct 15, analyst Chris Quintero, citing accelerating cloud bookings and AI agentic tools. Stock hit new 1-year high, +4% pre-market, closed $226.96 holding above $218. Cloud transition and CEO Eric Clark GTM changes drive estimate revisions. Risk: +69.5% in 6 months and elevated P/E 61x may cause exhaustion.
Return: -0.07%; alpha: 0.08%. - NOW — confidence 64.0000%. TD Cowen raised target $140 to $165 Buy on Oct 15 ahead of Q3 results Oct 28, citing ITSM Prime upgrades and federal strength. Stock rose 6.2% on upgrade, part of enterprise software rotation after YTD -6.8% underperformance. cRPO growth is key test, AI governance push broadens TAM. Risk: high beta and rates sensitivity, if SPY sells off software lags.
Return: 1.75%; alpha: 1.90%. - CEG — confidence 62.0000%. CIBC initiated with Outperformer $358 on Oct 15 covering 4 IPPs (TLN, VST, CEG, NRG) by analyst Mark Jarvi, driven by long-term nuclear contracts with hyperscalers and Google PPA. Nuclear pure-play scarcity makes initiations powerful for flows. AI data center power demand is secular tailwind. Risk: valuation stretched and correlated to power price volatility.
Return: -3.18%; alpha: -3.03%. - MRNA — confidence 55.0000%. Contrarian momentum inclusion: Goldman target raise $120 to $137 Neutral on Oct 15 tied to intismeran Phase 3 melanoma data at ESMO Oct 24, stock up 9.9% 5-day, 48% 1-month, 632% YTD showing massive momentum that tends to persist into medical conferences. While target is below spot, flow and short squeeze can drive outperformance vs SPY for one session. Risk: extremely overbought, 52-week high $227.46 resistance, failure to hold $208 low could reverse quickly.
Return: 5.17%; alpha: 5.32%.
Perplexity
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I favor stocks with fresh, material positive catalysts—analyst upgrades, raised targets, or improved guidance—where the initial reaction appears incomplete or supported by strong volume. The portfolio tilts toward defensive retail, beaten-down consumer and media recovery names, and a high-beta semiconductor rebound candidate, aiming to outperform SPY over the next trading session.
- WMT — confidence 68.0000%. Walmart received a Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy from Hold with a target increase to $136 from $113 on October 15, citing pricing power and food market-share gains. The stock closed at $117.87 on October 15, up 1.47%, on elevated volume, and the latest pre-market quote was $117.84, indicating the initial reaction has not fully closed the gap to the new target. Defensive consumer staples exposure also offers relative protection if broader equities remain volatile. Risks include intraday fade after the upgrade-day open near $120 and sensitivity to consumer-spending or inflation headlines. A sustained move below the October 15 low of $117.76 would undermine the continuation thesis. The reference price is a real-time pre-market quote as of 2026-10-16.
Return: -0.51%; alpha: -0.36%. - KMX — confidence 62.0000%. CarMax was upgraded two notches by BofA to Buy from Underperform, with the target raised to $65 from $50, reflecting improved pricing, market share, and cost execution. The stock closed October 15 at $52.62, up 5.62%, near its daily high, on volume above its average, suggesting conviction behind the re-rating. With roughly 24% implied upside to the new target, the one-day reaction appears incomplete. Risks are that the stock had been in a longer-term downtrend and that profit-taking could emerge after a large single-day gain. A close back below the October 15 open of $52.11 would weaken the bullish case. The reference price is a real-time pre-market quote as of 2026-10-16.
Return: -2.32%; alpha: -2.17%. - CROX — confidence 58.0000%. Barclays upgraded Crocs to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its target to $139 from $118, supporting a multi-year growth view. Crocs closed October 15 at $124.77, up 6.15%, near the upper end of its range on above-average volume, evidence that the upgrade is being actively accumulated rather than fading. The stock remains about 11% below the new target, leaving room for further upside. Risks include a sharp one-day move inviting reversal and continued consumer-discretionary softness. A decline below the October 15 low of $120.99 would challenge the continuation thesis. The reference price is an extended-hours Blue Ocean ATS quote as of late October 15.
Return: -3.46%; alpha: -3.31%. - FOX — confidence 57.0000%. Fox received a double upgrade from Bank of America to Buy from Underperform, with the target raised 57% to $85 from $54 after the Roku transaction changed the company's strategic profile. FOX closed October 15 at $57.14, up 2.62%, but remains far below the new target, leaving substantial re-rating potential. The upgrade is tied to a concrete corporate development rather than a generic sentiment shift, which improves catalyst quality. Risks include media-sector volatility, integration or deal-execution uncertainty, and the possibility that the initial 2.62% move already captures much of the near-term enthusiasm. A close below the October 15 low of $56.19 would weaken the thesis. The reference price is the October 15 regular-session close.
Return: -2.31%; alpha: -2.16%. - SMTC — confidence 50.0000%. Semtech combines a Northland upgrade to Outperform with a $186 target and improved third-quarter guidance, but the stock fell 13.87% to $138.04 by 1:45 PM EDT on October 16 despite those positives. That sharp selloff creates a potential oversold rebound setup if the guidance increase and data-center growth narrative reassert themselves; the stock still trades well below the $186 upgrade target and the $220 consensus target. This is the portfolio's highest-risk selection because the decline may reflect profit-taking after a 154% year-to-date run or concerns about the durability of AI-related demand. Risks include continued high-beta semiconductor weakness and further de-rating; a close below the day's low of $133.65 would invalidate the rebound thesis. The reference price is a live regular-session quote as of 2026-10-16.
Return: 3.28%; alpha: 3.43%.
Grok 4
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SPY is trading flat-to-slightly higher near 771-772 amid mixed sector action: AI/semiconductor pressure continues while financials, materials, and selective upgrades show relative strength. Rotation away from pure AI names into value and catalyst-driven stocks supports outperformance in the selected names over the one-session window.
- AA — confidence 72.0000%. Alcoa is leading materials gainers after reporting better-than-expected earnings with improved alumina production. Sector strength and positive reaction (up ~7-9% intraday) provide clear momentum versus flat SPY. Risks include commodity price volatility and any broader market risk-off that hits cyclicals. Latest quote reflects regular-session trading around 11:00 ET.
Return: -5.53%; alpha: -5.39%. - FOXA — confidence 68.0000%. BofA double upgrade to Buy with raised $85 target on Roku deal synergies is driving positive reaction (up ~1.6%). Media/entertainment exposure benefits from rotation out of AI while the catalyst remains fresh. Risks include any deal-related regulatory noise or broader risk-off. Quote is regular-session intraday.
Return: -2.05%; alpha: -1.90%. - JPM — confidence 65.0000%. Financials are among the stronger sectors today; JPM is up ~1.8% with banks supporting the Dow. Relative strength versus flat SPY and solid large-cap liquidity favor outperformance into the close and next session. Risks include any shift back to rate-hike fears or weaker-than-expected regional bank reports. Quote is regular-session intraday.
Return: -1.70%; alpha: -1.55%. - EAT — confidence 62.0000%. Raymond James upgrade to Strong Buy with confidence in upcoming earnings beat supports the name amid consumer discretionary resilience. Positive early reaction and sector rotation favor relative gains versus SPY. Risks include restaurant traffic sensitivity to macro data or profit-taking after recent strength. Quote reflects recent regular-session levels.
Return: -3.58%; alpha: -3.43%. - ZETA — confidence 60.0000%. Goldman Sachs upgrade to Buy with $45 target on AI platform momentum and 2027 visibility provides a fresh catalyst. Despite mixed intraday action after strong prior move, the rating change and enterprise growth narrative support outperformance versus flat SPY. Risks include high valuation after YTD gains and any tech-sector spillover. Quote is regular-session intraday.
Return: -0.16%; alpha: -0.01%.
DeepSeek
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US equities are in the middle of Q3 earnings season with several high-profile analyst actions and corporate events driving single-stock moves. Financials are reporting in full force, and biotech names are reacting to FDA decisions. The broader market is range-bound as investors await next week's mega-cap tech earnings. I expect the five selections below to outperform SPY over the one-session window, driven by fresh analyst upgrades, positive earnings surprises, and favorable price momentum.
- KMX — confidence 72.0000%. CarMax received a double upgrade from BofA on October 15, 2026, moving from Underperform to Buy with a price target raised from $50 to $65. Analyst Alexander Perry cited improving price competitiveness driven by FTC price transparency regulations and expectations for sustained positive comparable sales. The stock rose 5.62% on the day to $52.62 on volume of 3.79 million shares, well above the 20-day average. The upgrade came before the market open and the stock gapped up and held gains through the close, closing near the day's high of $52.62 (close within 0% of the high). This is constructive price action. The $65 target implies 23.5% upside from the close. A strategic update scheduled for November 3 is a near-term catalyst. The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock has already rallied 5.6% on the news, so some of the upgrade is priced in. However, the double upgrade from a bearish rating is a powerful signal, and the stock closed at its high, suggesting buyers are in control. Invalidation: a close below $50 on above-average volume would negate the bullish thesis. Completed 5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US Eastern regular session): Oct 9: O 53.51 H 53.74 L 52.45 C 52.61 V 2,011,300; Oct 12: O 52.21 H 52.56 L 50.56 C 50.69 V 2,083,200; Oct 13: O 50.46 H 51.31 L 49.83 C 50.81 V 3,128,000; Oct 14: O 50.00 H 50.64 L 49.05 C 49.82 V 3,667,000; Oct 15: O 52.11 H 52.62 L 51.19 C 52.62 V 3,786,555. return_5d_pct = 0.02% (52.62 vs 52.61 on Oct 8). high_20d = null (not verified). low_20d = null (not verified). avg_volume_20d = null (not verified). Latest price: $52.62, regular-session close, quote_time 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/kmx/history/. Market cap $7.47B. Avg dollar volume 20d $155M (based on ~2.96M shares × ~$52.50).
Return: -2.32%; alpha: -2.17%. - FTRE — confidence 68.0000%. Fortrea Holdings was upgraded by Deutsche Bank on October 15, 2026, from Hold to Buy with a price target raised from $20 to $25. The analyst cited a 'fundamental inflection point' with better prospects for margin expansion. The stock surged 6.58% to $22.75 on volume of 2.70 million shares, roughly in line with its 20-day average. The upgrade was published before the open and the stock gapped up from $21.34 to $21.93, then rallied to close at $22.75, near the day's high of $23.07. The close within 1.4% of the high indicates strong buying pressure. The $25 target implies 9.9% upside from the close. The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock has already rallied 6.6%, so some of the upgrade is priced in. However, the fundamental inflection narrative and the fact that the stock closed near its high suggest continuation. Invalidation: a close below $21 on above-average volume would negate the bullish thesis. Completed 5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US Eastern regular session): Oct 9: O 20.37 H 21.00 L 20.16 C 20.84 V 931,300; Oct 12: O 20.84 H 21.31 L 20.67 C 21.00 V 1,237,300; Oct 13: O 21.11 H 21.22 L 20.60 C 20.92 V 764,300; Oct 14: O 20.45 H 22.15 L 20.25 C 21.34 V 2,938,100; Oct 15: O 21.93 H 23.07 L 21.63 C 22.75 V 2,695,195. return_5d_pct = 9.17% (22.75 vs 20.84 on Oct 8). high_20d = null (not verified). low_20d = null (not verified). avg_volume_20d = null (not verified). Latest price: $22.75, regular-session close, quote_time 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftre/history/. Market cap $2.16B. Avg dollar volume 20d $66M (based on ~2.9M shares × ~$22.75).
Return: 3.21%; alpha: 3.35%. - FTAI — confidence 65.0000%. FTAI Aviation was initiated with an Outperform rating and a $305 price target by Macquarie on October 15, 2026, as part of a broader aerospace and defense coverage launch. The initiation was published at 8:55 PM ET, after the regular session close. The stock closed at $168.56, up 3.25% on the day, and the $305 target implies 81% upside. The stock has been volatile recently, with a low of $152.51 and a high of $168.87 on October 15, closing near the high. The initiation is a strong vote of confidence from a new analyst. The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock is already up 3.3% on the day and the initiation came after hours, so the market's full reaction may not yet be reflected. However, the substantial target premium and the fact that the stock closed near its high suggest positive momentum. Invalidation: a close below $155 on above-average volume would negate the bullish thesis. Completed 5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US Eastern regular session): Oct 9: null (data not verified); Oct 12: O 169.00 H 169.74 L 164.22 C 165.53 V null; Oct 13: null (data not verified); Oct 14: O 164.37 H 167.78 L 156.34 C 163.25 V 2,939,963; Oct 15: O 160.00 H 168.87 L 152.51 C 168.56 V 2,195,829. return_5d_pct = null (insufficient verified data). high_20d = null (not verified). low_20d = null (not verified). avg_volume_20d = null (not verified). Latest price: $168.56, regular-session close, quote_time 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ftai/history/. Market cap $17.31B. Avg dollar volume 20d $371M (based on ~2.2M shares × ~$168.56).
Return: -2.65%; alpha: -2.50%. - NVST — confidence 60.0000%. Envista Holdings was downgraded by Baird on October 15, 2026, from Outperform to Neutral with a price target cut from $34 to $26. Analyst Jeff Johnson cited valuation concerns after the stock's recent run-up. Despite the downgrade, the stock rose 2.98% to $23.50 on volume of 3.67 million shares, well above the 20-day average of approximately 2.77 million. The stock closed at its high of $23.50, indicating strong buying pressure. The $26 target implies 10.6% upside from the close, meaning the analyst still sees the stock higher than current levels. This is a classic case of a downgrade that is already fully priced in. The strongest counter-evidence is that the downgrade could trigger further selling from momentum traders. However, the stock's rise despite the downgrade and the close at the day's high suggest the market disagrees with the bearish thesis. Invalidation: a close below $22 on above-average volume would negate the bullish thesis. Completed 5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US Eastern regular session): Oct 9: O 22.62 H 23.00 L 22.60 C 23.00 V 2,357,700; Oct 12: O 22.95 H 23.31 L 22.66 C 22.72 V 2,392,900; Oct 13: O 22.71 H 22.97 L 22.20 C 22.65 V 2,411,700; Oct 14: O 22.55 H 22.95 L 22.53 C 22.82 V 1,988,400; Oct 15: O 22.50 H 23.51 L 22.50 C 23.50 V 3,673,599. return_5d_pct = 2.17% (23.50 vs 23.00 on Oct 8). high_20d = null (not verified). low_20d = null (not verified). avg_volume_20d = null (not verified). Latest price: $23.50, regular-session close, quote_time 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvst/history/. Market cap $3.77B. Avg dollar volume 20d $65M (based on ~2.77M shares × ~$23.50).
Return: -2.41%; alpha: -2.26%. - CROX — confidence 70.0000%. Crocs was upgraded by Barclays on October 15, 2026, from Equal Weight to Overweight with a price target raised from $118 to $139. Analyst Adrienne Yih cited greater visibility into the company's multi-year growth story, including progress on product innovation, category expansion, and international business growth. The stock jumped 6.15% to $124.77 on volume of 1.48 million shares, above the 20-day average of approximately 1.15 million. The upgrade was published before the open and the stock gapped up from $117.54 to $121.92, then rallied to close near the day's high of $126.22. The close at $124.77, within 1.2% of the high, indicates strong buying pressure. The $139 target implies 11.4% upside from the close. The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock has already rallied 6.2%, so some of the upgrade is priced in. However, the upgrade narrative is based on sustained growth rather than a one-time event, and the stock closed near its high. Invalidation: a close below $120 on above-average volume would negate the bullish thesis. Completed 5-day OHLCV (split-adjusted, US Eastern regular session): Oct 9: O 117.65 H 117.87 L 114.71 C 114.98 V 847,298; Oct 12: O 114.87 H 118.33 L 114.33 C 116.90 V 987,408; Oct 13: O 118.29 H 119.45 L 116.68 C 117.53 V 1,074,843; Oct 14: O 116.95 H 118.03 L 115.78 C 117.54 V 990,200; Oct 15: O 121.92 H 126.22 L 120.99 C 124.77 V 1,483,538. return_5d_pct = 8.52% (124.77 vs 114.98 on Oct 8). high_20d = 127.75 (from MoneyDJ, approximate). low_20d = 108.54 (from MoneyDJ, approximate). avg_volume_20d = 1,145,565 (from Barchart). Latest price: $124.77, regular-session close, quote_time 2026-10-15T16:00:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crox/history/. Market cap $5.98B. Avg dollar volume 20d $143M (based on 1.15M shares × ~$124.77).
Return: -3.46%; alpha: -3.31%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 9 | 33.33% | +0.15% |
| Kimi | 2 | 40.00% | +0.11% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 5 | 48.00% | -0.02% |
| Grok 4 | 2 | 30.00% | -0.05% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 13 | 43.08% | -0.16% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2 | 30.00% | -0.17% |
| Grok 4.5 | 17 | 41.18% | -0.35% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | 60.00% | -0.38% |
| DeepSeek | 18 | 46.67% | -0.54% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 19 | 37.89% | -0.55% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 1 | 60.00% | -0.78% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | 34.00% | -0.92% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 12 | 35.00% | -1.03% |
| Perplexity | 7 | 37.14% | -1.29% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 2 | 0.00% | -2.16% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 0.00% | -2.53% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 43.63880000 | 41.22390000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AA/history/ | |
| BAC | 52.45500000 | 51.16000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC/history/ | |
| CEG | 273.11000000 | 264.41500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG/history/ | |
| CLF | 12.43500000 | 13.89500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLF/history/ | |
| CROX | 125.02000000 | 120.69500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CROX/history/ | |
| EAT | 206.01000000 | 198.63500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EAT/history/ | |
| FITB | 51.32000000 | 51.10000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FITB/history/ | |
| FOX | 58.37000000 | 57.02000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOX/history/ | |
| FOXA | 65.31000000 | 63.97000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOXA/history/ | |
| FTAI | 168.50000000 | 164.03000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTAI/history/ | |
| FTRE | 22.15000000 | 22.86000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTRE/history/ | |
| GDX | 88.56000000 | 86.58000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GDX/history/ | |
| GS | 898.50000000 | 883.62000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GS/history/ | |
| JPM | 344.03000000 | 338.17500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/history/ | |
| KMX | 54.25000000 | 52.99000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMX/history/ | |
| MANH | 223.44500000 | 223.28500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MANH/history/ | |
| MRNA | 214.69000000 | 225.79010000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/ | |
| MS | 183.58000000 | 181.07000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MS/history/ | |
| NOW | 141.58500000 | 144.06500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW/history/ | |
| NVST | 23.24000000 | 22.68000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVST/history/ | |
| REGN | 797.51500000 | 784.34000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/REGN/history/ | |
| SMTC | 140.62000000 | 145.23000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMTC/history/ | |
| SPY | 769.74500000 | 768.60000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TSM | 412.44000000 | 425.56000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM/history/ | |
| URBN | 89.89000000 | 87.21500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/URBN/history/ | |
| WMT | 118.93000000 | 118.32000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMT/history/ | |
| XLF | 55.93000000 | 55.27990000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLF/history/ | |
| ZETA | 32.23000000 | 32.18000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZETA/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 abf144ae68a096ba46afed4cb7244b0dcb0ce59b88d8c43db11ec8aadabea1f7. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.