Asked Oct 16, 9:59 AM EDT (morning session). Gemini 3 Pro, Muse Spark 1.1, GPT-6, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Perplexity, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 16, 9:59 AM EDT to Oct 19, 9:59 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Directional return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro | 3/5 | 60.00% | 1.87% | -0.66% | 1.87% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -3.11% | -0.66% | -3.11% |
| GPT-6 | 1/5 | 20.00% | -2.74% | -0.66% | -2.74% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 5/5 | 100.00% | 4.14% | -0.66% | 4.14% |
| Perplexity | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.74% | -0.66% | -0.74% |
| Grok 4.5 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -2.91% | -0.66% | -2.91% |
| DeepSeek | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.18% | -0.66% | 0.18% |
Gemini 3 Pro
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US stock markets are navigating macroeconomic turbulence driven by sticky consumer price inflation figures and rising benchmark Treasury yields, which continue to pressure high-valuation technology and growth equities. Amid broader index volatility, individual single-stock catalysts—such as third-quarter earnings beats, operational efficiency wins, and tactical sector rotations—are creating distinct divergence between top performers and lagging names. Investors are prioritizing tangible profitability, resulting in strong upside momentum for select enterprise tech, fintech, credit reporting, and telecommunications providers, while speculative growth names face quick profit-taking.
- ERIC up — confidence 75%. Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson surged 11.79% in the October 15 source session after posting strong Q3 financial results that exceeded analyst estimates on earnings and expanding gross margins. The momentum reflects fundamental operational recovery and solid enterprise 5G equipment demand, signaling potential continuation in the target session.
Return: -2.34%; alpha: -1.68%. - TRU up — confidence 70%. TransUnion closed up 10.70% to $74.12 on October 15 during a broad sector-wide rally across credit bureaus. Driven by valuation re-rating and strong institutional inflows, the substantive catalyst supports further upside continuation into the next trading session.
Return: -3.96%; alpha: -3.30%. - KD down — confidence 65%. Kyndryl Holdings surged 12.04% to $13.21 on October 15 on high volume following technical momentum and positive broker commentary around enterprise IT transformation contracts. After a strong single-session move, the stock faces high short-term mean-reversion pressure, suggesting a downward reversal for the next session.
Return: -2.80%; alpha: 3.45%. - FIGR down — confidence 60%. Figure Technology Solutions gained 10.52% in the October 15 session to close at $27.68. Despite the intraday jump, the stock tested multi-month intraday lows earlier in the session amid recent insider selling activity, indicating a speculative bounce prone to a downward reversal in the target session.
Return: -7.35%; alpha: 8.01%. - APPN down — confidence 65%. Appian Corporation rallied 13.89% on October 15 to close near $43.79, driven by positive sentiment around enterprise automation demand and Q3 guidance. Given lingering cautious analyst consensus ratings and light relative trading volume, the sharp advance is expected to undergo a modest downward reversal.
Return: -5.51%; alpha: 6.16%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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S&P 500 closed higher on Oct 15 with rates easing, but dispersion was extreme: auto dealers surged on take-private deal while ag-chem collapsed on guidance reset. Oct 16 premarket shows financials and metals earnings driving modest risk-on, tech/AI infrastructure still under pressure. Expect mean-reversion for crash names and deal-cap fade for take-private pop.
- PAG down — confidence 65%. Oct 15 top gainer +8.32% per premarketprice archive. Catalyst substantive: agreement to be taken private at $212 cash by Penske Corp and Mitsui, enterprise value $16.3B. Rank 1 due to definitive deal price acting as ceiling. Previous close 212.00, current intraday 212.66 live quote used - very fresh. Expect reversal down toward deal price as arbitrage gap closes. Risks: higher competing bid, deal terms change.
Return: 0.01%; alpha: 0.65%. - FMC up — confidence 60%. Oct 15 top loser -38.81% per premarketprice archive, confirmed -30% to -45% intraday prints. Catalyst substantive: slashed Q3 revenue to $65-125M vs $840-900M prior and EBITDA to -$565M to -$510M due to channel inventory and price cuts. Stock fell to $5.62 close, new 52-week low $4.85. Current quote 5.775 live. Oversold bounce candidate after massive gap. Market cap 1.29B at source close above floor, price 5.62 above $5 floor. Risks: further downgrades, RBC cut to $9, investigation headlines.
Return: -6.46%; alpha: -5.80%. - IP up — confidence 62%. Up +6.9% on Oct 15 (close $34.10 vs prior $31.90). Catalyst substantive but speculative component: FT report of PE firms Lone Star and Atlas exploring bids and company confirming early-stage discussions on EMEA packaging sale. Packaging sector bid speculation. Current price 34.8046 premarket Oct 16. Market cap 16.74B per finnhub and 18.019B on Oct 15 close. Continuation up as buyout interest supports momentum. Risks: talks end, no formal offer.
Return: -3.48%; alpha: -2.82%. - DELL down — confidence 58%. Down -6.8% on Oct 15 per historical prices 473.39 vs 507.93 prior close, also cited as -11.76% top S&P loser in broader list. Catalyst mix: AI unwind pressuring AI server names, sector-wide de-risking. Substantive earnings base but move amplified by crowded positioning. Current price 456.42 live Oct 16 showing further pressure. Market cap 364.96B, volume well above $20M floor. Continuation down as AI infrastructure names remain offered into earnings.
Return: 2.09%; alpha: -1.43%. - AA up — confidence 55%. Top premarket gainer Oct 16 +5.94% at $42.82 on earnings release per premarketprice. Previous session close weakness recovered on beat. Alcoa is aluminum producer leveraged to industrial recovery. Catalyst substantive: earnings. Market cap 10.81B, avg volume above floor. Previous_change +5.94% is premarket move; judged as source-session up move with continuation up as earnings momentum carries. Risks: commodity price reversal, profit taking after gap.
Return: -3.54%; alpha: -2.88%.
GPT-6
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The October 15, 2026 source session produced substantial moves in enterprise technology, software, aerospace and defense, and staffing. The five selections are liquid, US-listed common stocks screened against the source-session closing price of at least $5, market capitalization of at least $1 billion, and 20-session average dollar volume of at least $20 million. Average dollar volume is calculated as the arithmetic mean of daily closing price multiplied by daily share volume over the 20 completed sessions ending October 15. Market capitalizations are source-session estimates, not October 16 intraday values. Reference prices are the newest October 16 intraday quotes located during research, with timestamps and freshness limitations disclosed individually. Rankings express relative conviction in the next-window directional forecasts, not the absolute size of the prior day's move. The central hypotheses are continued selling in HPE following an analyst-driven repricing, a potentially sustainable recovery in KRMN and KD, and reversal opportunities in APPN and MAN. All continuation and reversal labels refer exclusively to the October 15 regular-session percentage changes. The forecast window ending October 19, 2026 has not completed, so the primary mean signed return and fraction of correct directions remain unscored. The primary score will average the observed return for up predictions and the negative of the observed return for down predictions; no absolute-value transformation or benchmark alpha is applied. No future outcomes, transaction costs, dividends, or after-hours changes are included in the source-session classification.
- HPE down — confidence 66%. Ranked first because the October 15 decline of 7.10% followed a substantive negative analyst reassessment rather than an isolated low-liquidity fluctuation. Barclays downgraded Hewlett Packard Enterprise amid concerns about the sustainability of enterprise AI infrastructure demand and related pricing assumptions. The selling pressure extended into the October 16 morning session, supporting a downside continuation thesis. This is a substantive analyst-driven catalyst, although its impact on actual orders and earnings remains uncertain. The latest located quote was $55.88 at 10:02 AM EDT on October 16, an intraday reading rather than the previous close; it was current to the displayed minute at retrieval but may reflect exchange-feed delay. The source-session market capitalization was approximately $77.83 billion, and the 20-session average dollar volume was approximately $1.328 billion. Risks include a sharp technical rebound after consecutive declines, stronger-than-expected AI infrastructure spending, or a positive brokerage reassessment. Sources: StockAnalysis historical prices and current quote at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hpe/ and reporting on the analyst downgrades at https://www.investopedia.com/.
Return: 1.81%; alpha: -1.15%. - KRMN up — confidence 62%. Ranked second because Karman Holdings gained 12.48% on October 15 after substantial preceding weakness, while recent aerospace-and-defense analyst initiations and the company's reported order backlog provide identifiable support for a recovery. Macquarie initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $65 target, while Barclays had previously initiated with an Overweight rating. The underlying defense-market demand and approximately $1.3 billion reported backlog are substantive, but the immediate share-price acceleration also appears partly driven by speculative oversold positioning. The latest located intraday quote was $35.94, timestamped October 16 at 9:55 AM EDT, approximately seven minutes older than the freshest 10:02 AM quotes retrieved for other selections. The October 15 source-session market capitalization was $4.49 billion; calculated 20-session average dollar volume was approximately $123.51 million. Risks include profit-taking following a double-digit rebound, volatility from a previously steep drawdown, valuation sensitivity, and the absence of a newly quantified October 15 contract award. Sources: StockAnalysis at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/krmn/ and its linked analyst reports.
Return: -4.89%; alpha: -4.24%. - KD up — confidence 60%. Ranked third because Kyndryl advanced 11.87% during the October 15 source session and has an identifiable business-development catalyst: its October 14 announcement with Toyota Systems and Toyota Finance concerning agentic AI for IT operations. The customer deployment is substantive evidence of commercial adoption, but no sufficiently quantified incremental contract revenue was established to explain the entire one-day share-price gain. That distinction reduces conviction despite the possibility of continuing positive momentum. The most recent quote found was $13.20 at 10:04 AM EDT on October 16, an intraday quote current to its displayed minute when checked. Source-session market capitalization was approximately $2.87 billion, and calculated average dollar volume over the preceding 20 completed sessions was approximately $53.34 million. Risks include rapid reversal of a short squeeze, weak underlying earnings expectations, and uncertainty over how much of the new customer activity is financially incremental. Sources: StockAnalysis at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/kd/ and the October 14 company announcement at https://www.kyndryl.com/us/en/about-us/news/2026/10/toyota-agentic-ai-it-operations.
Return: -2.80%; alpha: -2.14%. - APPN down — confidence 59%. Ranked fourth as a speculative reversal candidate after Appian rose 13.97% on October 15. The identifiable company announcement concerned the scheduling of third-quarter results for November 5, which is not itself a major fundamental improvement. Software-sector enthusiasm and momentum may have contributed more than a newly quantified operating catalyst. Barclays recently increased its price target but retained an Underweight rating, and the available analyst consensus target remained below the recent traded price. These factors favor a partial retracement after the unusually large advance. The October 16 intraday quote was $43.97 at 10:02 AM EDT, current to the displayed minute at retrieval but potentially subject to feed delay. Source-session market capitalization was approximately $3.14 billion, and calculated 20-session average dollar volume was approximately $30.45 million, passing the liquidity requirement but by a narrower margin than the other selections. Risks include a sustained software-sector squeeze, continued momentum buying, or unanticipated positive enterprise software news. Sources: StockAnalysis current quote, price history, and company news at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/appn/.
Return: -5.51%; alpha: 6.16%. - MAN up — confidence 56%. Ranked fifth because ManpowerGroup's 15.82% fall on October 15 followed a substantive third-quarter earnings release and weaker forward expectations, creating both a legitimate fundamental reason for selling and an opportunity for a short-term oversold rebound. The company's reported adjusted earnings were near expectations, but revenue and the outlook disappointed investors. Subsequent target reductions from UBS, JPMorgan, and Baird reinforce the negative fundamental assessment, limiting conviction in a rebound. Nevertheless, the size of the single-session selloff and an initially firmer October 16 trading price support a tactical upside reversal hypothesis. The latest quote located was $44.66 at 10:01 AM EDT on October 16, an intraday reading current to its displayed minute when obtained. Source-session market capitalization was approximately $2.03 billion, and calculated 20-session average dollar volume was approximately $55.30 million. The principal risk is that institutional selling continues as analysts lower estimates, in which case October 15's decline may extend instead of reverse. Sources: StockAnalysis price history and analyst updates at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/man/ and the company earnings release at https://investor.manpower.com/news-releases/news-release-details/manpowergroup-reports-3rd-quarter-2026-results.
Return: -9.72%; alpha: -9.06%.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
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Source session is Thursday, October 15, 2026. A hotter-than-expected September core CPI print (+0.3% m/m versus 0.2% expected) kept rate-cut hopes on hold, and futures were roughly flat to slightly higher before the open. The biggest S&P 500 losers were AI-hardware and infrastructure names (HPE, Dell, Arista, Teradyne, Coherent, Applied Materials). The biggest gainers were a mix of software, internet and fintech names (Equifax, Reddit, FICO, AppLovin, Intuit, Coinbase). I expect partial mean reversion in the valuation-driven AI-hardware selloff and fading of the rebound in speculative, momentum-driven gainers. Per-stock 20-day average dollar volume could not be confirmed, so that field is omitted everywhere. Market cap is omitted where I could not confirm it. Every stock is a large cap and none are ETFs, but I did not verify each one against all three floors.
- DELL up — confidence 60%. Dell fell 6.80% on October 15 to a close of 473.39, after a two-day drop of about 17%. The trigger was a Barclays downgrade to Equal Weight with the price target cut to 574, on valuation concerns. Earnings and guidance were unchanged, and a large AI server backlog is still cited, so I treat the catalyst as speculative and valuation-driven rather than a change in fundamentals. That makes this a reversal with direction up. Price used: a pre-market quote of 480.39 (+1.48%) seen at about 04:45 ET on October 16, which is stale by the time of the open. Market cap of about 301B is the Yahoo Finance intraday figure at the October 15 close. Risks: the support level near 452 breaks, the AI-hardware selloff continues, or hot inflation weighs on high-multiple tech. 20-day average dollar volume not confirmed. Share volume was 16.3M on the day versus an average of about 7.4M, so the floor is almost certainly met.
Return: 2.09%; alpha: 2.74%. - HPE up — confidence 52%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell 7.10% on October 15 to a close of 58.63, the largest decline among S&P 500 names. The cause was the Barclays downgrade to Equal Weight on valuation and AI-spending concerns, with the target cut to 77. I treat the catalyst as speculative and sentiment-driven rather than a fundamental change, so I expect a partial rebound alongside Dell. Price used: the October 15 regular-session close, which is roughly one day stale because I could not find a current quote. Market cap and 20-day average dollar volume were not confirmed and are omitted. Risks: this is highly correlated with the Dell pick, and further sector de-risking would hurt both.
Return: 1.81%; alpha: 2.46%. - APP down — confidence 52%. AppLovin rose 6.52% on October 15 to a close of 279.29, from a 52-week low of 260.99 set that session. The stock is down roughly 59% year to date, and several brokers cut price targets in the preceding days (Wedbush, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Oppenheimer). I read the bounce as a technical rebound inside a persistent downtrend with no substantive new catalyst, so I expect it to fade: a reversal with direction down. Price used: a pre-market quote of 279.25 at 8:10 AM ET on October 16, which is a few hours stale. Market cap of about 92.4B is the CNBC figure at a 276.12 quote. Risks: oversold bounce extends, or a short squeeze. 20-day average dollar volume not confirmed.
Return: -4.92%; alpha: 5.58%. - RDDT down — confidence 50%. Reddit rose 7.24% on October 15 to a close of 159.36, among the largest S&P 500 gains. Reports attribute the move to renewed media coverage, bullish analyst commentary on AI visibility, and anticipation of Q3 earnings later this month. I classify that catalyst as speculative, with no new reported financials, and expect part of the move to fade. Price used: the October 15 regular-session close, roughly one day stale. Market cap and 20-day average dollar volume were not confirmed and are omitted. Risks: pre-earnings run-up momentum continues, and the stock is volatile.
Return: -7.04%; alpha: 7.70%. - COIN down — confidence 48%. Coinbase rose 6.32% on October 15 to a close of 183.81. I could not confirm a specific company catalyst. Crypto-related names appeared to benefit from sector momentum, including a strong Circle move reported around the same time. The core CPI print was hotter than expected, which weighs on high-beta assets, so I expect the gain to partly reverse. Price used: the October 15 regular-session close, roughly one day stale. Market cap, 20-day average dollar volume and the catalyst were not confirmed. Risks: crypto momentum continues, and this is the lowest-conviction pick.
Return: -4.82%; alpha: 5.47%.
Perplexity
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US equities enter the next session with AI-hardware and neocloud names under pressure after concerns about debt-funded AI infrastructure spending, while selected internet, payments, and earnings-driven names retain positive momentum. I favor selective continuation in fundamentally supported gainers and continuation lower in names with concrete negative catalysts, while treating one outsized payments-sector rally as prone to mean reversion.
- CRCL down — confidence 55%. Circle rose 9.33% in the October 15 source session after bullish research highlighted USDC leadership in regulated stablecoin payments and infrastructure; the catalyst appears partly speculative because it is research commentary rather than a new contractual or earnings event. The stock closed at $86.97, and the latest quote I found was $85.95 during October 16 trading, so I use that intraday price. After a large single-session advance and premarket weakness reported by Investing.com, I expect partial mean reversion. Risks: continued crypto-payment momentum, short covering, or a broad risk-on session could sustain the rally. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume were verified against the $1 billion and $20 million floors.
Return: -4.81%; alpha: 5.47%. - RBLX up — confidence 60%. Roblox gained 7.55% in the source session as multiple analysts raised price targets ahead of Q3 earnings and pointed to engagement improvements. This is a moderately substantive catalyst because analyst target revisions and engagement data can support near-term positioning, although it remains pre-earnings and therefore event-risk heavy. The latest quote found was $50.67 during October 16 trading; market cap was about $36.53 billion and average volume 11.54 million shares, comfortably clearing all screens. I expect momentum continuation into the next close, with the main risk being profit taking or a disappointing pre-earnings narrative.
Return: -2.42%; alpha: -1.76%. - RDDT up — confidence 58%. Reddit climbed 7.24% in the source session on renewed media coverage, bullish commentary, AI-visibility data, and an approaching Q3 earnings date. The catalyst is a mix of substantive engagement/AI data and speculative pre-earnings enthusiasm. The latest quote found was $157.80 during October 16 trading; market cap was about $30.66 billion and average volume 4.21 million shares, passing all liquidity and size screens. I expect continuation, but the position is vulnerable to reversal if investors fade the move before earnings or if AI-advertising sentiment weakens.
Return: -7.04%; alpha: -6.39%. - RKLB down — confidence 62%. Rocket Lab fell 6.64% in the source session after the Neutron rocket launch timing was moved to 2027, extending development timelines and adding execution uncertainty. This is a substantive negative catalyst because it directly affects a major program milestone. The latest quote found was $54.62 in October 16 premarket trading; MarketWatch reported a $33.06 billion market cap and 19.84 million average volume, implying ample dollar liquidity. With heavy volume on the decline and a concrete schedule delay, I expect continued weakness. Risks: a technical bounce after an oversold move or offsetting positive contract news.
Return: -3.02%; alpha: 3.67%. - DELL down — confidence 55%. Dell fell 6.80% in the October 15 source session after Barclays cut its rating and questioned how much AI demand is actually driving hardware sales. This is a substantive analyst-driven catalyst because it challenges a core element of the AI-server investment thesis. I was able to verify the source-session percentage change and catalyst, but I could not refresh a reliable current quote, market capitalization, or 20-day average dollar volume before submission; those fields are therefore omitted rather than estimated. I expect continuation lower as investors reassess AI-hardware demand, with the principal risk being a rebound if the broader AI-trade selloff stabilizes.
Return: 2.09%; alpha: -1.43%.
Grok 4.5
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Source session of 15 Oct 2026 showed broad rotation out of AI/tech into defensives and rate-sensitive names after hotter PPI and falling yields. Extreme movers meeting liquidity and size screens were mixed between earnings-driven gainers and AI-exposure losers. Next-session (16 Oct) outlook favors selective continuation in catalyst-backed names amid ongoing rotation, with risk of mean-reversion in pure momentum moves.
- APPN up — confidence 62%. Appian rose 13.97% on 15 Oct on AI process-automation demand commentary. Price above $5, market cap above $1B and 20-day dollar volume comfortably above $20M. Latest quote used is intraday 16 Oct near $44. Direction up continuation of the source-session gain; catalyst is substantive (AI software demand) rather than purely speculative. Risk is that the move was already priced and fades.
Return: -5.51%; alpha: -4.85%. - ERIC up — confidence 65%. Ericsson advanced 11.80% on 15 Oct after better-than-expected Q3 results (sales +6%). Price, market cap and liquidity all clear the floors. Latest available quote is post-close/pre-market 16 Oct around $10.5. Direction up continuation; catalyst is substantive earnings beat. Risk is profit-taking after the gap-up.
Return: -2.34%; alpha: -1.68%. - KD up — confidence 58%. Kyndryl gained 11.87% on 15 Oct after announcing an agentic-AI IT services deal with Toyota. Clears price, market-cap and dollar-volume screens. Latest quote near prior close $13.19. Direction up continuation of the source-session move; catalyst substantive (commercial win). Risk is that the stock remains in a longer downtrend.
Return: -2.80%; alpha: -2.14%. - DELL down — confidence 60%. Dell fell 6.80% on 15 Oct amid continued AI-infrastructure valuation pressure. Far exceeds all size and liquidity thresholds. Latest intraday quote 16 Oct near $456. Direction down continuation of the source-session decline; catalyst is sector rotation rather than company-specific news. Risk is a sharp bounce if AI sentiment stabilizes.
Return: 2.09%; alpha: -1.43%. - HPE down — confidence 57%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise dropped 7.10% on 15 Oct on AI-borrowing and sector concerns. Meets price, market-cap and volume floors. Latest quote 16 Oct near $56.5. Direction down continuation; catalyst is thematic (AI exposure) rather than idiosyncratic. Risk is oversold bounce after multi-day selling.
Return: 1.81%; alpha: -1.15%.
DeepSeek
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The source session (15 Oct 2026) featured a sharp rotation out of AI and energy names, while healthcare and select deal-driven stocks rallied. I expect the next session to see continuation in positive catalysts (Moderna, Ericsson) and further weakness in AI hardware (Dell) as rate concerns persist. Williams is a reversal candidate on an oversold energy bounce, while Penske is a reversal short given its price has already reached the buyout ceiling.
- MRNA up — confidence 78%. Moderna gained 4.51% on 15 Oct after Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $137 and Merck's CEO hinted at accelerated timelines for their cancer vaccine. The move was also supported by a rotation into defensive healthcare. I expect continuation as the positive analyst action and pipeline news provide a substantive catalyst. Risk: the stock is volatile and a broad market sell-off could cap gains. Reference price is the overnight quote from 15 Oct (latest available).
Return: 3.24%; alpha: 3.89%. - ERIC up — confidence 75%. Ericsson surged 11.80% on 15 Oct after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results, with strong demand for mobile network equipment. The earnings beat is a substantive catalyst and the stock has momentum. I expect continuation as the market digests the positive results. Risk: the stock may face profit-taking after a sharp one-day gain. Reference price is the pre-market quote from 16 Oct.
Return: -2.34%; alpha: -1.68%. - DELL down — confidence 70%. Dell fell 6.80% on 15 Oct amid a broad AI selloff and a Barclays downgrade to Neutral. The negative catalyst is substantive and the sector remains under pressure from rate concerns. I expect continuation of the downtrend. Risk: a short-term oversold bounce could occur. Reference price is the pre-market quote from 16 Oct.
Return: 2.09%; alpha: -1.43%. - WMB up — confidence 68%. Williams Companies dropped 4.92% on 15 Oct as energy stocks sold off on potential easing of sanctions on shadow fleet tankers. The catalyst is speculative and not company-specific, suggesting a possible oversold reversal. I expect a bounce. Risk: continued weakness in oil prices could keep pressure on the sector. Reference price is the pre-market quote from 16 Oct.
Return: 2.07%; alpha: 2.73%. - PAG down — confidence 65%. Penske Automotive jumped 8.84% on 15 Oct after announcing a $16.3 billion take-private deal at $212 per share. The stock closed exactly at the deal price, creating a hard ceiling for further gains. I expect a reversal to the downside as arbitrageurs lock in profits. Risk: a higher bid could emerge, but that is unlikely. Reference price is the after-hours quote from 15 Oct.
Return: 0.01%; alpha: 0.65%.
How models have done in Extreme Movers
ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg directions called correctly | Avg directional return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 12 | 61.67% | +1.42% |
| Grok 4 | 3 | 53.33% | +0.92% |
| Meta AI - Muse Spark | 1 | 40.00% | +0.73% |
| DeepSeek | 23 | 47.83% | +0.62% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 4 | 50.00% | +0.33% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 6 | 60.00% | +0.03% |
| Grok 4.5 | 17 | 44.71% | -0.02% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 20 | 40.00% | -0.22% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 3 | 33.33% | -0.24% |
| Perplexity | 15 | 42.67% | -0.38% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 18 | 48.89% | -0.52% |
| GPT-6 | 11 | 40.00% | -1.25% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | 46.00% | -3.06% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 42.95000000 | 41.43000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AA/history/ | |
| APP | 278.46000000 | 264.75000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APP/history/ | |
| APPN | 44.03000000 | 41.60500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APPN/history/ | |
| COIN | 181.98500000 | 173.22030000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN/history/ | |
| CRCL | 86.99000000 | 82.80510000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRCL/history/ | |
| DELL | 455.26000000 | 464.76000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DELL/history/ | |
| ERIC | 10.69500000 | 10.44500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ERIC/history/ | |
| FIGR | 28.16000000 | 26.09000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FIGR/history/ | |
| FMC | 5.72990000 | 5.36000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FMC/history/ | |
| HPE | 55.88000000 | 56.89000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPE/history/ | |
| IP | 34.78000000 | 33.57000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IP/history/ | |
| KD | 13.41500000 | 13.04000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KD/history/ | |
| KRMN | 35.86990000 | 34.11500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KRMN/history/ | |
| MAN | 44.67000000 | 40.33000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAN/history/ | |
| MRNA | 218.64000000 | 225.71740000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/ | |
| PAG | 212.51000000 | 212.52500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAG/history/ | |
| RBLX | 51.05500000 | 49.82000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBLX/history/ | |
| RDDT | 164.30000000 | 152.73000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDDT/history/ | |
| RKLB | 53.66000000 | 52.04010000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RKLB/history/ | |
| SPY | 771.60000000 | 766.54000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TRU | 75.37000000 | 72.38500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRU/history/ | |
| WMB | 69.76000000 | 71.20500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMB/history/ |
Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11, SHA-256 ae8028fa55c7819fdb950050552fbe897367290e461956a97e922ec4651cc976. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.