Asked Oct 19, 11:05 AM EDT (midday). Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Grok 4.5, Perplexity, GPT-6 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 19, 11:05 AM EDT to Oct 20, 11:05 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.27% | 0.33% | -0.06% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1/5 | 20.00% | 0.21% | 0.33% | -0.11% |
| Grok 4.5 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -0.25% | 0.33% | -0.58% |
| Perplexity | 1/5 | 20.00% | 0.21% | 0.33% | -0.11% |
| GPT-6 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -0.84% | 0.33% | -1.16% |
| DeepSeek | 1/5 | 20.00% | -0.72% | 0.33% | -1.04% |
Muse Spark 1.1
View full picks and reasoning
SPY closed Friday Oct 16 down 1.11% at 763.25 with QQQ down 2.5% after worst Nasdaq week since Liberation Day. Futures Sunday night Oct 18-19 are rebounding led by chips. Earnings week ahead with Meta and Tesla in focus. Setup favors high-beta Mag7 bounce to outperform SPY intraday Oct 19, with SPY trading around 766.28 intraday open vs 763.25 close.
- NVDA — confidence 78.0000%. Top rebound candidate after -1.43% Friday close. Premarket data shows NVDA +1.4% outperforming Mag7 peers (AMZN +1.2%, GOOGL +0.6%, META +0.2%, MSFT +0.2%, TSLA -0.1%, AAPL -0.1%). Chip-led futures bounce after 4.48% Nasdaq weekly drop favors beta 2.25 stock. Intraday quote 217.76 vs prior close 214.13 shows momentum already. Thesis: dip buyers in semis lead SPY recovery. Risk: continued AI capex de-risk and high beta reversal if earnings guidance disappoints.
Return: -0.08%; alpha: -0.41%. - AMZN — confidence 72.0000%. Second strongest premarket performer at +1.2% in Mag7. Friday close 250.00 down 1.87%, now trading 262.46 intraday high 262.68 indicating strong gap fill. Earnings season tailwind and consumer resilience support outperformance vs SPY. Thesis: large-cap tech rotation after selloff benefits AMZN with AWS optimism. Risk: retail margin concerns or broader market fade.
Return: 0.48%; alpha: 0.15%. - MSFT — confidence 68.0000%. MSFT current 534.66 vs prior close 529.05 up 1.06% intraday, open 528.7 high 535.44. Bullish reversal after Friday -1.93% close at 529.05. Pre-market +0.2% with futures up. As anchor of SPY, should outperform on beta 1.06 if tech recovers. Thesis: safe-haven Mag7 with AI infrastructure exposure leads relief rally into earnings. Risk: if futures fade, MSFT tracks SPY closely.
Return: -0.67%; alpha: -1.00%. - GOOGL — confidence 65.0000%. GOOGL closed Friday 340.59 down 2.47% (2.32% bearish in Mag7 list), now 346.2 up 1.64% intraday with open 343.665 low 341.85 high 346.38. Oversold bounce candidate. Premarket +0.6% vs SPY -1.11% prior trend suggests alpha. Thesis: search/AI sentiment oversold, valuation support at PE 17.5 helps outperform SPY on risk-on day. Risk: ad spend slowdown fears persist.
Return: -0.67%; alpha: -1.00%. - TSLA — confidence 60.0000%. High-beta rebound play. Closed Friday 354.72 down 2.13%, now 366.515 up 3.32% intraday open 357.5 high 367.59 low 354.47. Earnings due Oct 21 after close, typically sees pre-earnings momentum and volatility expansion. Thesis: beaten down -18.5% YTD, oversold conditions + futures rebound drives outsized move vs SPY. Risk: high beta works both ways, any market fade hits TSLA hardest.
Return: 2.30%; alpha: 1.98%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
View full picks and reasoning
US equities are exhibiting sector dispersion with mega-cap tech attempting a rebound from recent selloffs while Healthcare and Energy provide defensive alpha support relative to the broader market.
- NVDA — confidence 75.0000%. Strong intraday momentum recovery following recent tech pullbacks, driven by continuous institutional capital allocation into leading AI hardware providers. Risks: Broad semiconductor sector valuation sensitivity and macroeconomic yield changes.
Return: -0.08%; alpha: -0.41%. - MSFT — confidence 72.0000%. Robust Enterprise Cloud software momentum and strong commercial Copilot adoption provide resilient outperformance characteristics against market pullbacks. Risks: High technical resistance and potential AI infrastructure execution bottlenecks.
Return: -0.67%; alpha: -1.00%. - AAPL — confidence 70.0000%. Strong flagship product cycle demand and steady institutional cash flow provide a defensive profile with lower downside variance relative to SPY. Risks: Extended China delivery lead times and general consumer spending softness.
Return: -0.98%; alpha: -1.31%. - LLY — confidence 68.0000%. Strong organic growth driven by dominant market share in GLP-1 treatments offers non-cyclical relative strength regardless of broader equity market direction. Risks: Elevated valuation multiples and potential regulatory or pharmaceutical pricing headwinds.
Return: 3.76%; alpha: 3.43%. - XOM — confidence 65.0000%. Elevated global energy commodity prices and efficient operational cash flow generate positive momentum that decouples favorably from tech-led market weakness. Risks: Sudden downward volatility in crude futures or broader macroeconomic slowdown concerns.
Return: -0.96%; alpha: -1.29%.
Grok 4.5
View full picks and reasoning
US equities are rebounding on Monday after last week's sharp AI and semiconductor sell-off, with Nasdaq leading on dip-buying and easing oil prices. Chip names and related ETFs are outperforming as investors position ahead of major tech earnings later in the week; the session favors continuation of the risk-on rotation into growth and semis over the next trading session versus the broader SPY.
- INTC — confidence 68.0000%. JPMorgan upgrade from Underweight to Neutral is driving strong premarket and early-session gains after a multi-day decline; semiconductor rebound momentum and high relative volume support further outperformance versus SPY into the next session. Risks include broader AI valuation fatigue or profit-taking if the upgrade fails to sustain buying.
Return: -0.49%; alpha: -0.82%. - MU — confidence 65.0000%. Memory chip stocks are leading the semiconductor recovery with elevated volume after last week's losses; MU's sensitivity to AI data-center demand positions it for continued relative strength versus SPY on the rebound day. Risks center on any renewed concerns over AI monetization timelines or a sudden shift back to defensive sectors.
Return: -0.09%; alpha: -0.41%. - SOXX — confidence 62.0000%. The semiconductor ETF is rebounding sharply after an extended losing streak, capturing the sector-wide recovery that is outpacing the broader market; high beta to chips supports one-day outperformance of SPY. Risks include a quick fade of the dip-buying if macro yields rise or oil rebounds.
Return: -0.20%; alpha: -0.53%. - NVDA — confidence 60.0000%. As the AI bellwether, NVDA is participating in the early-week tech recovery after last week's pressure; its heavy weighting and liquidity make it a high-conviction vehicle for the current risk-on rotation versus SPY. Risks are residual skepticism on AI capex returns and potential profit-taking into upcoming peer earnings.
Return: -0.08%; alpha: -0.41%. - SMH — confidence 58.0000%. VanEck Semiconductor ETF is rising in tandem with the chip rebound and offers diversified exposure to the strongest-performing names of the session; expected to continue outpacing SPY while the sector momentum holds. Risks include concentration in a handful of large holdings that could reverse if AI sentiment sours again.
Return: -0.39%; alpha: -0.71%.
Perplexity
View full picks and reasoning
US equities are exhibiting sector dispersion with mega-cap tech attempting a rebound from recent selloffs while Healthcare and Energy provide defensive alpha support relative to the broader market.
- NVDA — confidence 75.0000%. Strong intraday momentum recovery following recent tech pullbacks, driven by continuous institutional capital allocation into leading AI hardware providers. Risks: Broad semiconductor sector valuation sensitivity and macroeconomic yield changes.
Return: -0.08%; alpha: -0.41%. - MSFT — confidence 72.0000%. Robust Enterprise Cloud software momentum and strong commercial Copilot adoption provide resilient outperformance characteristics against market pullbacks. Risks: High technical resistance and potential AI infrastructure execution bottlenecks.
Return: -0.67%; alpha: -1.00%. - AAPL — confidence 70.0000%. Strong flagship product cycle demand and steady institutional cash flow provide a defensive profile with lower downside variance relative to SPY. Risks: Extended China delivery lead times and general consumer spending softness.
Return: -0.98%; alpha: -1.31%. - LLY — confidence 68.0000%. Strong organic growth driven by dominant market share in GLP-1 treatments offers non-cyclical relative strength regardless of broader equity market direction. Risks: Elevated valuation multiples and potential regulatory or pharmaceutical pricing headwinds.
Return: 3.76%; alpha: 3.43%. - XOM — confidence 65.0000%. Elevated global energy commodity prices and efficient operational cash flow generate positive momentum that decouples favorably from tech-led market weakness. Risks: Sudden downward volatility in crude futures or broader macroeconomic slowdown concerns.
Return: -0.96%; alpha: -1.29%.
GPT-6
View full picks and reasoning
Moderately bullish on a selective rebound in beaten-down semiconductor stocks, with an additional earnings-driven opportunity in steel. On October 19, the Nasdaq is outperforming the S&P 500 as semiconductor shares recover from eight consecutive declining sessions. AMD, Micron, Intel and Sandisk are participating in the rebound, supported by expectations of sustained AI infrastructure spending and upcoming semiconductor earnings. Cleveland-Cliffs has delivered an unusually strong forward earnings outlook, creating a separate company-specific catalyst. The strategy favors stocks with potential to outperform SPY through the October 20 evaluation window rather than simply tracking the broad market. Principal risks include elevated Treasury yields, renewed concerns about AI capital expenditure, oil-price volatility, geopolitical disruptions and profit-taking after the morning rebound. All five selections are equally weighted at 20%. The portfolio has substantial semiconductor exposure and therefore meaningful correlated downside risk. Confidence levels reflect uncertain short-horizon relative performance, not guaranteed gains. Reference prices are observed October 19 regular-session intraday quotes, not forecast prices or necessarily the prices at the evaluation window's opening.
- CLF — confidence 68.0000%. Highest-ranked company-specific catalyst. Cleveland-Cliffs reported third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of approximately $612 million and projected approximately $715 million for Q4, with more than $4 billion anticipated for 2027. The substantially improved forward outlook, stronger steel pricing, newly secured contracts and expected debt reduction could support continued institutional repricing over the next trading session. The stock was already approximately 14.8% higher intraday when checked, showing unusually strong demand following the announcement. Unlike the semiconductor selections, this thesis depends primarily on an earnings-driven change in expectations rather than a sector-wide rebound. Risks: The large opening-day advance may have already incorporated much of the positive news; the stock has retreated from its intraday high, and profit-taking could overwhelm follow-through. The company remains economically cyclical and sensitive to steel prices, trade policy and manufacturing demand. Reference price is an October 19 regular-session intraday traded quote, not a previous close. Earnings evidence: https://www.investors.com/news/clf-stock-cleveland-cliffs-q3-earnings/
Return: -2.36%; alpha: -2.68%. - MU — confidence 65.0000%. Micron offers direct exposure to the recovery in AI memory and high-bandwidth memory sentiment. The stock had declined from $1029.00 on October 9 to $878.84 on October 16, creating substantial potential for a technical rebound if semiconductor selling pressure continues to ease. During October 19 trading, shares recovered approximately 4.2%, consistent with renewed demand for memory-related equities. Continued expectations of strong AI server memory requirements, constrained supply and favorable memory pricing could help MU outperform SPY over the next session. Risks: The severe preceding correction may reflect persistent concerns about valuations, cyclical memory pricing and the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. Rising bond yields, another semiconductor selloff or a failure to sustain the current rebound could rapidly reverse gains. Reference price is an October 19 regular-session intraday traded quote.
Return: -0.09%; alpha: -0.41%. - AMD — confidence 63.0000%. AMD is a high-beta beneficiary of renewed appetite for AI accelerators and semiconductor growth companies. Shares fell from $608.10 on October 9 to $528.75 on October 16, approximately a 13% decline, before rebounding roughly 3.7% during October 19 trading. The recovery follows broad weakness across semiconductor shares and may continue if investors regain confidence in AI hardware demand and upcoming industry earnings. Relative to SPY, AMD offers greater sensitivity to a sustained technology-sector recovery, creating meaningful short-horizon outperformance potential. Risks: The recent decline may represent a broader reassessment of AI valuations rather than temporary selling pressure. Competition, export restrictions, hyperscaler spending uncertainty and elevated interest rates could undermine the rebound. The stock was trading below its October 19 opening price when checked, suggesting the initial rally remains vulnerable. Reference price is an October 19 regular-session intraday traded quote.
Return: -0.76%; alpha: -1.08%. - INTC — confidence 60.0000%. Intel combines an oversold semiconductor rebound with a favorable analyst catalyst. JPMorgan reportedly upgraded the stock on October 19, citing a more balanced risk-reward outlook ahead of third-quarter earnings. Shares declined from $104.70 on October 9 to $89.85 on October 16 before rebounding approximately 4.6% in the current session. The analyst reassessment, upcoming earnings and recovering semiconductor sentiment could encourage additional buying and support relative outperformance versus SPY. Risks: Intel faces significant execution challenges, manufacturing competitiveness questions, capital expenditure requirements and uncertainty surrounding its foundry strategy. The current rebound remains below recent trading levels, and disappointing earnings expectations or renewed semiconductor weakness could reverse the move. Reference price is an October 19 regular-session intraday traded quote. Analyst catalyst evidence: https://www.investors.com/news/technology/chip-stocks-rebound-ai-names-leaders-nvidia-amd/
Return: -0.49%; alpha: -0.82%. - SNDK — confidence 57.0000%. Sandisk offers particularly strong exposure to the rebound in memory and storage equities. Following a decline from $1581.82 on October 9 to $1299.30 on October 16, the stock advanced approximately 7.6% during October 19 trading. Renewed investor interest in memory pricing, storage demand and AI-related infrastructure could produce additional short-term buying. Its high volatility provides the potential for returns meaningfully above SPY if the sector recovery continues. Risks: The sharp morning advance creates substantial profit-taking risk, while the approximately 18% decline preceding the rebound illustrates the stock's sensitivity to shifting expectations. Storage pricing cycles, stretched valuations, semiconductor sentiment and possible technical resistance around recent trading levels could limit further gains. This is the least certain selection because its strong early recovery may already discount near-term positive developments. Reference price is an October 19 regular-session intraday traded quote.
Return: -0.49%; alpha: -0.82%.
DeepSeek
View full picks and reasoning
SPY is up about 0.5% intraday, but breadth is weak, with only roughly one-third of S&P 500 names higher. The tape favors high-beta AI and semiconductor rebounders plus idiosyncratic earnings winners rather than broad market beta. Lower oil prices and yields are supportive, but the narrow rally raises reversal risk into Tuesday's earnings-heavy session.
- CLF — confidence 76.0000%. Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $612 million, more than double Q2, and adjusted EPS of $0.28 versus a $0.24 consensus. Management guided Q4 adjusted EBITDA to about $715 million and outlined a path to more than $4 billion in 2027, supported by steel tariffs, stronger domestic pricing, and reshoring demand. The stock is already up sharply, so the main risk is intraday profit-taking and a pullback in steel or auto demand; the reference price is an intraday print at 10:05 AM EDT, not the close.
Return: -2.36%; alpha: -2.68%. - WDC — confidence 72.0000%. Western Digital is rebounding with the memory and storage complex after a sharp sector selloff, and its high beta to AI data-center storage demand makes it a likely outperformer if the tech bounce extends. Pre-earnings positioning ahead of its October 22 report could also support the stock. Risks include the absence of a company-specific catalyst inside the one-session window, lingering supply concerns after the Toshiba capacity scare, and a fast reversal in AI sentiment; the reference price is a delayed intraday quote.
Return: 2.42%; alpha: 2.09%. - AMD — confidence 69.0000%. AMD is participating in the AI-chip rebound after falling roughly 10% over the prior five sessions, and its 2.31 beta gives it high sensitivity to a continuing semiconductor recovery. The broader group is being helped by dip-buying and easing pressure from oil and yields. Risks are that there is no AMD-specific catalyst in the window, valuation remains high, and AI capex or credit concerns could quickly reverse the bounce; the reference price is a delayed intraday quote.
Return: -0.76%; alpha: -1.08%. - GE — confidence 67.0000%. GE Aerospace reports Q3 before the open on October 20, with consensus EPS of about $2.02, up roughly 22% year over year, on strong commercial engine aftermarket and defense demand. The company has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise near 11.7%, and its backlog exceeds $210 billion. Risks include a negative Earnings ESP, supply-chain and margin pressure, and the possibility that guidance disappoints; the reference price is a delayed intraday quote.
Return: -2.39%; alpha: -2.72%. - INTC — confidence 64.0000%. Intel is rallying with the AI-chip group after its CEO said restructuring is about 80% complete and highlighted foundry, advanced packaging, and ASIC opportunities. The stock has high beta and had fallen sharply over the prior week, leaving room for short covering if semiconductor sentiment keeps improving. Risks include no Intel earnings until later in the week, persistent foundry losses, a Hold consensus rating, and the chance that the relief rally fades; the reference price is a delayed intraday quote.
Return: -0.49%; alpha: -0.82%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi | 2 | 40.00% | +0.11% |
| GPT-6 | 10 | 30.00% | +0.01% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 5 | 48.00% | -0.02% |
| Grok 4 | 2 | 30.00% | -0.05% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 14 | 41.43% | -0.16% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2 | 30.00% | -0.17% |
| Grok 4.5 | 18 | 38.89% | -0.37% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | 60.00% | -0.38% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 20 | 38.00% | -0.52% |
| DeepSeek | 19 | 45.26% | -0.56% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 1 | 60.00% | -0.78% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | 34.00% | -0.92% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 12 | 35.00% | -1.03% |
| Perplexity | 8 | 35.00% | -1.15% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 2 | 0.00% | -2.16% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 0.00% | -2.53% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 343.34500000 | 339.97000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AMD | 548.97500000 | 544.82000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/ | |
| AMZN | 262.58000000 | 263.83000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/ | |
| CLF | 13.79000000 | 13.46500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLF/history/ | |
| GE | 312.16000000 | 304.69500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GE/history/ | |
| GOOGL | 346.00000000 | 343.67000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/ | |
| INTC | 93.99500000 | 93.53500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/history/ | |
| LLY | 1249.57000000 | 1296.55000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LLY/history/ | |
| MSFT | 534.67000000 | 531.06500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| MU | 917.75000000 | 916.94100000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NVDA | 217.91000000 | 217.72950000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| SMH | 554.18500000 | 552.05000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMH/history/ | |
| SNDK | 1388.65000000 | 1381.80000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNDK/history/ | |
| SOXX | 508.34500000 | 507.33500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXX/history/ | |
| SPY | 768.49990000 | 771.01000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TSLA | 367.48000000 | 375.94000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/ | |
| WDC | 350.30000000 | 358.76500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDC/history/ | |
| XOM | 177.47500000 | 175.77000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 5b35bd5c0a9de6e75f5baa0345851f5ed1ef244ced3da53008932df9ce81b679. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.