Oct 2, 2026 - 7 AI models call the biggest movers in the morning session. 2 models finished positive

Asked Oct 2, 10:38 AM EDT (morning session). Gemini 3 Pro, Perplexity, GPT-5.6 Sol, Muse Spark 1.1, Grok 4.5, Claude Opus 5.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 2, 10:38 AM EDT to Oct 5, 10:38 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Directional return
Gemini 3 Pro	2/5	40.00%	-0.71%	0.00%	-0.71%
Perplexity	2/5	40.00%	-1.94%	0.00%	-1.94%
GPT-5.6 Sol	2/5	40.00%	-2.24%	0.00%	-2.24%
Muse Spark 1.1	3/5	60.00%	-0.18%	0.00%	-0.18%
Grok 4.5	2/5	40.00%	-2.16%	0.00%	-2.16%
Claude Opus 5.5	2/5	40.00%	0.06%	0.00%	0.06%
DeepSeek	2/5	40.00%	1.97%	0.00%	1.97%

Gemini 3 Pro

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The US equity market is demonstrating sector dispersion following major earnings releases and sector catalysts from the October 1 source session. Enterprise consulting and technology names showed resilience backed by generative AI booking momentum, while consumer discretionary and media names faced sharp downside re-ratings due to guidance cuts and competitive pressures. For the upcoming 1-day horizon, top gainers from substantive structural drivers like strong order backlogs are poised for continuation, whereas oversold or sentiment-driven extreme movers present high-probability reversal setups.

1. ACN up — confidence 70%. Accenture surged 15.8% in the October 1 source session following strong Q4 earnings results and robust generative AI bookings that relieved market fears of tech disruption. Given the substantive catalyst and multi-quarter booking visibility, momentum is expected to continue into the target session close despite a mild intraday morning consolidation.
   Return: -3.65%; alpha: -3.65%.
2. SNPS up — confidence 68%. Synopsys surged 12.78% in the source session following strong Investor Day guidance updates and strategic partnership announcements. With semiconductor design automation demand remaining robust, this substantive fundamentally backed move is favored to show positive return continuation over the 1-day horizon.
   Return: 0.87%; alpha: 0.86%.
3. FICO down — confidence 62%. Fair Isaac Corporation rose 11.69% in the source session as a technical rebound after a severe weekly drop caused by mortgage scoring competition fears. Because the rally is primarily a speculative bounce amid ongoing market share uncertainty from alternative credit scoring models, the movement is projected to reverse downward.
   Return: 0.87%; alpha: -0.87%.
4. PSKY up — confidence 65%. Paramount Skydance fell 9.6% in the source session amid broader media pressure and corporate debt extension announcements. The stock is exhibiting an oversold intraday rebound in the current session as traders reposition ahead of its listing shift and ticker update, pointing to an upward mean-reversion reversal relative to the source drop.
   Return: -1.14%; alpha: -1.14%.
5. NKE down — confidence 66%. Nike dropped over 10% following fiscal Q1 2027 earnings results and lowered forward guidance, driven by weakness in Greater China and soft wholesale numbers. Given the substantive nature of the fundamental earnings breakdown and analyst target downgrades, downside continuation is anticipated for the next session close.
   Return: -1.25%; alpha: 1.25%.

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Perplexity

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The source session produced unusually large, catalyst-driven moves in liquid US-listed stocks. Substantive earnings and company-specific news favor continuation in ACN, while analyst commentary and AI-infrastructure enthusiasm create a higher reversal risk in FICO and COHR. The storage-sector supply shock and Nike outlook deterioration are substantive bearish catalysts, favoring downside continuation in STX and NKE.

1. ACN up — confidence 72%. Ranked first because Accenture was among the largest qualifying liquid gainers, rising 15.78% in the source session after quarterly adjusted earnings exceeded consensus and banks raised price targets. The catalyst is substantive rather than speculative. The latest verifiable quote was $212.71 in pre-market trading on October 2, 2026, approximately 4 hours before the prediction time; the source-session close was $212.30. Market capitalization and source-session trading volume were verified, but a strict 20-day average dollar-volume figure was not available, so it is omitted rather than estimated. The earnings surprise supports continuation, although the very large gap and potential profit-taking create reversal risk. [60][11][57]
   Return: -3.65%; alpha: -3.65%.
2. SNPS up — confidence 63%. Ranked second after a 12.78% source-session gain. The move was associated with upbeat guidance and AI partnerships, making the catalyst more substantive than a purely technical squeeze, but the valuation and large one-day advance leave meaningful profit-taking risk. The latest verifiable quote was $492.88 on October 2, 2026, during the target session. Market capitalization, source-session close, average volume and source-session percentage change were verified; the displayed average volume implies dollar liquidity well above the $20 million threshold. [62][65][57]
   Return: 0.87%; alpha: 0.86%.
3. COHR up — confidence 58%. Ranked third after a 10.90% source-session gain. Bernstein initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $350 target, citing structural AI-infrastructure demand and constrained supply; this is a recognizable fundamental catalyst, although the target-driven move may be partly speculative. The latest verifiable quote was $330.36 on October 2, 2026, during the target session. Market capitalization, average volume and source-session change were verified, and the average volume implies dollar liquidity comfortably above the threshold. [30][28][52]
   Return: -0.47%; alpha: -0.47%.
4. NKE down — confidence 69%. Ranked fourth as a liquid large-cap decliner. Nike fell about 6.27% in the source session, with analysts cutting targets and highlighting weak sales trends, cost-cutting pressure and a more difficult earnings outlook. The catalyst is substantive and negative, so downside continuation is favored, although the sharp gap can produce an oversold rebound. The latest verifiable quote was $33.13 on October 2, 2026, during the target session. Market capitalization and average volume were verified; the average volume implies dollar liquidity far above the threshold. [39][38][43]
   Return: -1.25%; alpha: 1.25%.
5. STX down — confidence 65%. Ranked fifth after Seagate dropped approximately 11.63% in the source session. Toshiba's reported plan to double hard-drive production raised credible concerns about increased competition and a potential supply glut, making the catalyst substantive rather than speculative. The latest verifiable quote was $835.22 on October 2, 2026, during the target session. Market capitalization and trading activity were verified, but a strict 20-day average dollar-volume figure was not available, so it is omitted rather than guessed. The supply concern supports continued downside, while the magnitude of the selloff leaves room for a technical rebound. [16][37][47]
   Return: 7.68%; alpha: -7.68%.

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GPT-5.6 Sol

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The October 1 mover set was dominated by company-specific catalysts rather than a broad risk-on or risk-off impulse. For the next session, substantive earnings, guidance and signed commercial arrangements have a stronger continuation case than rumor-driven moves, while unusually large reactions to ambiguous biotechnology data may mean-revert. Elevated Treasury yields remain a background risk for richly valued growth stocks and highly leveraged companies.

1. ACN up — confidence 72%. Continuation up. Accenture rose 15.78% on October 1 after a substantive earnings catalyst: fiscal Q4 revenue of $18.68 billion and EPS of $3.29 exceeded expectations, new bookings reached $22.17 billion, and FY2027 guidance was broadly supportive. This is a higher-quality catalyst than takeover speculation because it changes observable earnings and forward fundamentals. The latest quote I could verify was $212.00 in October 2 pre-market trading at about 07:30 ET, roughly three hours before this prediction, so it is stale relative to the live regular session. The reported 20-day dollar-volume figure is calculated from the latest available 20-day average share-volume snapshot of 5,032,210 shares multiplied by the October 1 close of $212.30. Risks are post-earnings profit-taking after an unusually large one-day gain, sensitivity to high bond yields, and the possibility that FY2027 growth guidance is already fully reflected in the repricing.
   Return: -3.65%; alpha: -3.65%.
2. SNPS up — confidence 68%. Continuation up. Synopsys gained 12.78% on October 1 after substantive investor-day announcements including an OpenAI collaboration on an AI model for chip design, a multiyear Amazon custom-silicon relationship reported at more than $1 billion, stronger long-term targets and a planned share repurchase. These developments directly address investor concerns that generative AI could disintermediate electronic-design-automation vendors, giving the rally a fundamental basis. The latest quote I could verify was $496.65 in October 2 pre-market trading at about 07:30 ET, roughly three hours before this prediction. The 20-day dollar-volume figure is calculated using a verified 20-day average volume snapshot of 1,783,453 shares and the October 1 close of $490.54. Risks are valuation, a technically stretched move after two strong sessions, integration risk from Ansys, and broad technology weakness if Treasury yields resume rising.
   Return: 0.87%; alpha: 0.86%.
3. NKTR up — confidence 61%. Reversal up. Nektar Therapeutics fell 22.39% on October 1 despite reporting Phase 2b rezpegaldesleukin follow-up data showing durable scalp-hair responses after treatment ended. The catalyst is substantive clinical data, but interpretation is inherently speculative because biotechnology valuation depends on efficacy thresholds, competitive positioning, trial design and future Phase 3 execution. The mismatch between apparently constructive published data and the extreme selloff creates a one-session mean-reversion setup, although the market may be signaling concerns not captured by headline efficacy figures. The latest quote I could verify was $47.15 in October 2 pre-market trading at 08:37 ET, about two hours before this prediction. The 20-day dollar-volume figure is calculated from the latest available 20-day average volume snapshot of 1,209,621 shares and the October 1 close of $46.99. Risks are continued institutional de-risking, adverse interpretation of the data, financing risk and the high volatility typical of clinical-stage biotechnology stocks.
   Return: -9.12%; alpha: -9.12%.
4. PSKY down — confidence 60%. Continuation down. Paramount Skydance declined 9.58% on October 1 as investors focused on the financing burden for its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition after roughly $41.4 billion of secured notes plus an $8.5 billion term loan were priced, with some coupons exceeding 9%. This is a substantive balance-sheet catalyst rather than a purely technical move: high financing costs can directly reduce equity value and increase execution risk even after legal obstacles to the transaction are removed. The newest October 2 quote I could verify was approximately $9.40; the source provided the date but not a precise intraday timestamp, so this is less fresh than the pre-market quotes used for several other selections. The 20-day dollar-volume figure is calculated from a verified 20-day average volume snapshot of 20,890,702 shares and the October 1 close of $9.34. Risks to the bearish call include relief buying after the sharp decline, improved financing terms, merger synergies or a broader drop in Treasury yields.
   Return: -1.14%; alpha: 1.14%.
5. MAT down — confidence 58%. Reversal down. Mattel jumped 18.80% on October 1 after reports that Authentic Brands Group had discussed acquiring the company for more than $20 per share and potentially more than $6 billion. The catalyst is economically important but still speculative: Reuters reported that no formal sale process was underway and Mattel had not confirmed willingness to transact. The stock also faded substantially from its $17.23 intraday high to a $15.04 close, suggesting that part of the takeover premium was already being discounted for deal uncertainty. The latest quote I could verify was $15.15 in October 2 pre-market reporting, around 05:40 ET and therefore roughly five hours stale relative to this prediction. The 20-day dollar-volume figure is calculated from a verified 20-day average volume snapshot of 3,846,725 shares and the October 1 close of $15.04. Risks to the reversal thesis are confirmation of negotiations, a formal bid near or above the reported $20 level, competing bidders or renewed takeover speculation.
   Return: 0.46%; alpha: -0.47%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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US equities closed October 1 modestly higher with S&P 500 +0.19% to 7666.45 as 10-year yield eased to 5.24%, but breadth remained narrow and AI infrastructure remained the dominant driver. Earnings were the main source of extreme moves, with Accenture posting best day as public company, while Nike and Broadcom pressured on financing concerns. Next session direction likely dominated by payrolls and yield follow-through, favoring continuation in AI optics and software names that beat.

1. ACN up — confidence 78%. Rank 1 large-cap gainer on Oct 1 source session. Closed $212.30 up +15.78% after Q4 revenue beat, record $22.2B bookings and FY27 guidance. Intellectia mover table shows +15.78% and $129.98B market cap. Catalyst is substantive earnings-driven, not speculative. Finnhub quote shows previous close 212.30 and current intraday 201.24 on Oct 2 indicating early profit taking, but thesis is continuation up as AI deal momentum and analyst upgrades support. Price used is latest intraday available at time of answer from Finnhub, data_date 2026-10-02. Market cap 129.9B verified from ad-hoc-news and stockanalysis.
   Return: -3.65%; alpha: -3.65%.
2. SNPS up — confidence 72%. Rank 2 large-cap gainer Oct 1. Closed $490.54 up +12.78% per Intellectia movers and +9.33% intraday surge story. Catalyst is substantive: Investor Day Sep 30 announcing multi-year deals with OpenAI and 【entity-AWS¦canonical_name=AWS】 to develop AI model for chip design and raising FY27 revenue target to $11.15B vs Street $9.7B. Source is Fool article Why Synopsys Stock Soared. Finnhub current price 489.67 vs previous close 490.54 indicates flat open Oct 2. Continuation up expected as AI EDA demand remains supply-constrained. Market cap 94.01B verified via stockanalysis Oct 1 close.
   Return: 0.87%; alpha: 0.86%.
3. COHR up — confidence 70%. Rank 3 gainer Oct 1. Closed $319.19 up +10.90% per Yahoo Finance and MarketMinute history. Catalyst is substantive AI infrastructure: Coherent extended AI run as Wall Street turned bullish, showcasing high-beta optics leverage to data-center laser demand. Historical price table confirms Oct 1 close 319.19 with volume 11,410,585. Finnhub current price 332.65 shows continuation into Oct 2. Market cap ~62.51B per Intellectia and WallStreetZen. 20-day average dollar volume well above $20M threshold given >5M shares daily at $300 price = >$1.5B.
   Return: -0.47%; alpha: -0.47%.
4. LITE up — confidence 68%. Rank 4 gainer Oct 1. Closed $1045.78 up +7.67% per stockinvest and MarketBeat. Catalyst is substantive: Lumentum showcased AI laser technologies at OCP Summit driving 35% above-average volume 7.46M shares. Finnhub current price 1075.5 vs previous close 1045.78 confirms up gap Oct 2. Market cap 87.10B per Finnhub. Price >= $5 and dollar volume 7.46M * 1045 = ~$7.8B on day, so 20-day average >$20M easily. Continuation up thesis based on AI optics scarcity.
   Return: 0.98%; alpha: 0.98%.
5. AVGO up — confidence 60%. Top large-cap loser Oct 1 despite AI theme. Closed $343.64 down -2.15% per Intellectia movers table. Catalyst is mixed speculative concern about $42B lending to Anthropic for chip leasing reported by 【entity-Reuters¦canonical_name=Reuters】 raising circular financing risk, not fundamental chip demand. Finnhub current price 356.81 up +3.83% on Oct 2 shows early reversal. Previous session decline was modest vs high beta, so reversal up is likely as market digests financing as non-dilutive and memory shortage thesis supports. Market cap 1.64T per stockanalysis and Finnhub. Reference price is latest Finnhub current price Oct 2.
   Return: 1.37%; alpha: 1.36%.

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Grok 4.5

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US equities mixed mid-session on Oct 2 with strong sector dispersion. Storage names STX and WDC under pressure on supply/competition headlines after prior gains; SYNA continuing higher on revised all-cash ON acquisition terms; NKE extending declines on restructuring and weak outlook; ACN giving back part of prior-day earnings-driven surge. Overall tone favors selective continuation in high-conviction movers with liquid large/mid-caps meeting size and volume screens.

1. SYNA up — confidence 72%. Source-session prior close change +4.69% on Oct 1; revised all-cash $123/share acquisition by ON Semiconductor is a substantive catalyst driving continuation higher. Latest intraday quote ~$120.67 (market open Oct 2, delayed ~15-30 min) confirms price >$5, market cap ~$4.72B and elevated volume supporting liquidity. Hypothesis continuation of the positive prior move into the next full session close. Risks include deal completion uncertainty or broader semi weakness.
   Return: -0.73%; alpha: -0.73%.
2. STX down — confidence 68%. Source-session prior close change +2.52% on Oct 1; sharp sell-off today on HDD supply and competition headlines represents continuation of pressure after the prior gain. Latest intraday quote ~$839.13 (market open Oct 2) meets all floors (price, ~$190B market cap, multi-billion daily dollar volume). Hypothesis continuation lower into next session close. Risks include oversold bounce or positive storage demand news.
   Return: 7.68%; alpha: -7.68%.
3. NKE down — confidence 65%. Source-session prior close change -0.71% on Oct 1; further decline today on restructuring, job cuts and weaker revenue guidance is continuation of the negative prior move. Latest intraday quote ~$33.06 (market open Oct 2) satisfies screens (price >$5, market cap ~$49B, high average dollar volume). Hypothesis continuation lower. Risks include short-covering or better-than-feared brand recovery signals.
   Return: -1.25%; alpha: 1.25%.
4. ACN down — confidence 62%. Source-session prior close change +15.78% on Oct 1 driven by strong earnings and AI bookings; partial give-back today is a reversal of that large positive move. Latest intraday quote ~$201.25 (market open Oct 2) clears all thresholds (price, market cap ~$130B, ample liquidity). Hypothesis reversal lower into next close. Risks include renewed buying on AI demand confirmation.
   Return: -3.65%; alpha: 3.64%.
5. WDC down — confidence 60%. Source-session prior close change estimated positive in line with sector peers on Oct 1; sharp decline today mirroring STX on storage supply headlines supports continuation lower. Latest intraday quote ~$414.33 (market open Oct 2) meets criteria (price >$5, market cap well above $1B, high dollar volume). Hypothesis continuation of the negative session pressure. Risks include sector rebound or earnings-related support.
   Return: 7.31%; alpha: -7.31%.

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Claude Opus 5.5

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The source session was Thursday, October 1, 2026. Index moves were mixed to flat. Weak jobs data briefly pulled yields lower and the Nasdaq hit records led by AI semis, but rising Treasury yields kept the broader tape flat. The biggest large-cap moves were earnings- and deal-driven: Accenture jumped on a fiscal Q4 beat and record bookings, Synopsys rallied on AWS and OpenAI deals plus strong FY27 guidance, and Vicor rose after raising its Q3 guidance. Liquidia kept falling after a patent loss to United Therapeutics. Tempus AI fell without a clear catalyst. Early on October 2, Accenture is fading its gain, Synopsys is extending, Liquidia is still weak and Tempus is bouncing. My picks favor continuation where the catalyst is substantive and fundamental, and reversal where the move looked like rotation or profit-taking.

1. SNPS up — confidence 62%. Synopsys rose 12.78% on Oct 1 (from 434.94 to 490.54), after a 4.78% gain on Sep 30. The catalyst is substantive: multi-year AWS and OpenAI agreements and FY27 guidance of $11.1B-$11.2B in revenue and $19.04-$19.12 in adjusted EPS, both above consensus. Many analysts then raised price targets (Deutsche Bank $640, BofA $600, HSBC $700). The stock was trading about $500 (+1.9%) intraday on Oct 2, which suggests buyers are absorbing the gap. Thesis: continuation up. Risk: the stock has run about 20% in three sessions, so profit-taking and a broad semis pullback are the main threats. Reference price is a stockanalysis.com intraday quote from Oct 2, 2026, about 10:30 AM EDT. The 20-day average dollar volume is my own estimate (about 2.26M shares x about $410) from daily history.
   Return: 0.87%; alpha: 0.86%.
2. LQDA down — confidence 57%. Liquidia fell 7.50% on Oct 1 (from 30.26 to 27.99) on 21.5M shares, after a 57.19% collapse on Sep 30. A federal court ruled that its lead drug, Yutrepia (inhaled treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension), infringes a United Therapeutics patent. The catalyst is substantive and changes the business: Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight with a $30 target, and BofA cut its target to $40. Analysts are still cutting estimates and holders are still exiting, and the stock was down another 3.9% to 26.91 early on Oct 2. Thesis: continuation down. Risks: a sharp short-covering bounce after a roughly 62% two-day drop, or legal and settlement headlines. Reference price is a stockanalysis.com intraday quote from Oct 2, 2026. Market cap is about $2.49B. The 20-day average dollar volume is my own estimate, inflated by the two crash days.
   Return: 0.61%; alpha: -0.61%.
3. TEM up — confidence 55%. Tempus AI fell 6.59% on Oct 1 (from 81.90 to 76.50) with no company-specific negative news. Sources attributed the drop to sector rotation out of high-beta health-tech, so I treat the catalyst as speculative and flow-driven. Fundamental news is positive: FDA 510(k) clearance for its ECG-MR product on Sep 28, 13 abstracts accepted at the 2026 ESMO congress, and Guggenheim raising its target to $92 from $65 on Oct 2. The stock was bouncing about 3% to 78.81 early on Oct 2. Thesis: reversal up. Risk: high volatility and continued rotation out of speculative AI names. Reference price is a stockanalysis.com intraday quote from Oct 2, 2026, about 10:03 AM EDT. The 20-day average dollar volume is my own estimate (about 6.84M shares x about $73).
   Return: -0.21%; alpha: -0.21%.
4. VICR up — confidence 53%. Vicor rose 6.80% on Oct 1 (from 288.94 to 308.59) after raising its Q3 sequential revenue-growth guidance to more than 30% from more than 20%, driven by higher royalties from its licensing agreement with Vertical Power Delivery. The catalyst is substantive. Needham raised its target to $350 and Roth Capital kept a $375 target. The stock is a strong momentum name, up more than 300% year to date with several double-digit up days in September. Thesis: continuation up. Risks: extreme extension and high beta, so any AI-hardware selloff could cause a sharp reversal. I could not refresh an Oct 2 intraday quote, so reference_price is the Oct 1 regular-session close (about one session stale). The 20-day average dollar volume is my own estimate (about 0.91M shares x about $235).
   Return: -3.38%; alpha: -3.39%.
5. ACN down — confidence 51%. Accenture rose 15.78% on Oct 1 (from 183.37 to 212.30) on 28.8M shares after a fiscal Q4 beat: revenue of about $18.7B, record bookings of $22.2B, and FY27 guidance above consensus. The catalyst is substantive, and price targets went up (Goldman Sachs and Argus to $260). Still, a near-16% one-day gain is extreme for a roughly $120B IT-services company, and the stock was giving back about 4-5% early on Oct 2 (about 201.7-203.4), a sign of profit-taking and gap-fill selling. Thesis: reversal down over the next session. Risk: post-earnings drift and institutional re-rating could bring renewed buying. Reference price is a stockanalysis.com intraday quote from Oct 2, 2026. The 20-day average dollar volume is my own estimate (about 6.38M shares x about $185).
   Return: -3.65%; alpha: 3.64%.

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DeepSeek

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US equities are mixed after a strong Thursday. Accenture's Q4 beat and record bookings re-rated large-cap IT-services and consulting names (CTSH, INFY, GLOB, EPAM) and spilled into chip/AI hardware, while Seagate, Western Digital, Nike and other mega-caps trade lower on Friday. The setup favors post-catalyst continuation in high-quality earnings beats, and continued downside in names with genuine fundamental damage, but extended momentum (SNPS RSI 74, VICR RSI 75, ACN RSI 70) and a likely 'sell-the-news' fade in Accenture are the main risks. Weekend headline risk is elevated.

1. ACN up — confidence 53%. Accenture closed the source session (Oct 1, 2026) at $212.30, up 15.78% ($183.37 prior close), its largest one-day move, on a Q4 beat (revenue $18.68B vs ~$18.03B consensus) and record bookings of $22.17B (+4% y/y). The catalyst is substantive (hard earnings and booking data), but FY27 guidance of 3%-6% growth was only in line with the ~3.9% consensus and the stock faded from an intraday +23% to +15.78%. I predict continuation of the positive repricing (direction up) relative to the +15.78% source-session move, ignoring the after-hours/opening gap per the rules. Ranking logic: largest absolute source-session move among the qualifying large caps, cleanest catalyst, deepest liquidity. Risks: sell-the-news fade, in-line guidance, and an average analyst target of $210.95 already below the reference price. Reference price $213.10 is the latest quote I could verify (a delayed intraday quote dated 2026-10-02), so it may be a few hours stale; the market cap ($129.92B) and 20-day average volume (6,381,803 shares) are confirmed from the cited source.
   Return: -3.65%; alpha: -3.65%.
2. SNPS up — confidence 65%. Synopsys closed the source session (Oct 1, 2026) at $490.54, up 12.78% ($434.94 prior close), after signing a multiyear silicon-IP and engineering-software agreement valued above $1B and on continued AI-driven demand read-through (OpenAI/AWS-related contract news). The catalyst is substantive (contracted revenue and raised AI outlook). I predict continuation up relative to the +12.78% source-session move; pre-market on the target session was ~$496 (+1.1%). Ranking logic: second-largest verified large-cap gainer with a hard catalyst and strong analyst support (average target $553.77, Strong Buy). Risks: RSI 74.41 (overbought), forward PE ~28, and a 52-week price change of only -0.58%, leaving little cushion. Reference price $496.00 is a pre-market quote dated 2026-10-02 (about 3 hours stale versus answer time); market cap $94.01B and 20-day average volume 2,258,661 shares are confirmed from the cited source.
   Return: 0.87%; alpha: 0.86%.
3. VICR up — confidence 60%. Vicor closed the source session (Oct 1, 2026) at $308.59, up 6.80% ($288.94 prior close), after raising its Q3 sequential revenue-growth outlook to more than 30% from more than 20% on higher royalties. The catalyst is substantive (company guidance revision). I predict continuation up relative to the +6.80% source-session move; the target-session pre-market print was ~$315.21 (+2.15%). Ranking logic: mid-cap with a direct, verifiable guidance catalyst and the strongest 52-week momentum in the set (+520.66%). Risks: RSI 75.16, forward PE ~57, P/FCF 277, and a high beta of 2.40 make a sharp reversal possible if the broad AI-hardware trade cools. Reference price $315.21 is a pre-market quote dated 2026-10-02 (about 3 hours stale versus answer time); market cap $14.23B and 20-day average volume 915,103 shares are confirmed from the cited source.
   Return: -3.38%; alpha: -3.39%.
4. NU up — confidence 55%. Nu Holdings closed the source session (Oct 1, 2026) at $13.29, up 4.98% ($12.66 prior close), rebounding after the company clarified it was not pursuing a reported UK digital-bank acquisition. The catalyst is more speculative than the others (a denial of a rumour rather than new contracted revenue), so conviction is lower. I predict modest continuation up relative to the +4.98% source-session move. Ranking logic: large, highly liquid large-cap with a moderate move and clean data; useful as a lower-volatility diversifier versus the AI-hardware names. Risks: price sits below both its 50-day ($14.27) and 200-day ($14.72) moving averages, the 52-week change is -16.99%, and the catalyst could fade without follow-through. Reference price $13.28 is the most recent quote I could verify (an after-hours print dated 2026-10-01), so it is roughly one session stale; market cap $64.20B and 20-day average volume 76,280,913 shares are confirmed from the cited source.
   Return: 16.64%; alpha: 16.64%.
5. LQDA down — confidence 58%. Liquidia closed the source session (Oct 1, 2026) at $27.99, down 7.50% ($30.26 prior close), the second leg of a decline after a federal court ruled that YUTREPIA infringed two pulmonary-hypertension patent claims; Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to Equal Weight and cut its price target to $30 from $108. The catalyst is substantive and negative (an adverse patent ruling with a formal analyst downgrade). I predict continuation down relative to the -7.50% source-session move. Ranking logic: the only source-session large-cap decliner that clears all three liquidity/size floors, giving the set a short-side expression. Risks: the stock is deeply oversold (RSI 19.52) and has already fallen ~59% over the week, so a violent mean-reversion bounce is possible; this is the main reason confidence is not higher. Reference price $27.85 is the most recent quote I could verify (an after-hours print dated 2026-10-01), roughly one session stale; market cap $2.51B and 20-day average volume 3,314,352 shares are confirmed from the cited source.
   Return: 0.61%; alpha: -0.61%.

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How models have done in Extreme Movers

ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg directions called correctly	Avg directional return
Claude Sonnet 5.5	3	73.33%	+1.79%
DeepSeek	13	47.69%	+1.50%
Grok 4	2	50.00%	+0.31%
Gemini 3 Pro	2	60.00%	+0.31%
Claude Opus 5	6	60.00%	+0.03%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	10	54.00%	-0.01%
Perplexity	6	43.33%	-0.06%
Muse Spark 1.1	12	40.00%	-0.13%
Claude Opus 5.5	3	33.33%	-0.24%
Grok 4.5	8	35.00%	-0.73%
GPT-6	4	45.00%	-2.68%
GPT-5.6 Sol	7	48.57%	-3.76%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
ACN	201.73500000	194.38000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACN/history/
AVGO	356.91000000	361.79000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/
COHR	331.91000000	330.35000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COHR/history/
FICO	665.16000000	670.92500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FICO/history/
LITE	1073.45000000	1083.98500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LITE/history/
LQDA	27.61500000	27.78220000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LQDA/history/
MAT	15.14500000	15.21500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAT/history/
NKE	33.23500000	32.82000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/history/
NKTR	45.99000000	41.79750000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKTR/history/
NU	13.14500000	15.33270000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NU/history/
PSKY	9.63500000	9.52500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PSKY/history/
SNPS	490.49000000	494.73500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNPS/history/
SPY	771.77000000	771.79410000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
STX	825.49000000	888.87000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STX/history/
SYNA	120.77000000	119.89000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SYNA/history/
TEM	79.60500000	79.44000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TEM/history/
VICR	307.11000000	296.71500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VICR/history/
WDC	411.53000000	441.62000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDC/history/

Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11, SHA-256 bda3047918265c79d8a646e6a5735d5e96ee4d186a91ff90ebb5b6ccc7c1819a. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.