Asked Oct 21, 9:57 AM EDT (morning session). Muse Spark 1.1, GPT-6, DeepSeek and Claude Opus 5.5 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 21, 9:57 AM EDT to Oct 22, 9:57 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Directional return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 4/5 | 80.00% | 2.86% | -0.55% | 2.86% |
| GPT-6 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.05% | -0.55% | 0.05% |
| DeepSeek | 5/5 | 100.00% | 2.06% | -0.55% | 2.06% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -1.26% | -0.55% | -1.26% |
Muse Spark 1.1
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October 21 session shows risk-on rebound with S&P +0.4% and 【entity-Nasdaq¦canonical_name=Nasdaq】 +0.8% on stable yields and Bitcoin boost. Extreme movers dominated by M&A: 【entity-Salesforce¦canonical_name=Salesforce】 agreed to buy Braze for $5.66B at $47.50 cash, driving +51.7% move and sympathy rally in MarTech peers like Klaviyo. Biotechnology and studio names also outperformed on high volume, while acquirer 【entity-Salesforce¦canonical_name=Salesforce】 lagged as market questioned price. Setup favors continuation for deal-locked target, but reversal risk for sympathy and small-cap biotech after extended wicks.
- BRZE up — confidence 78%. BRZE is top NYSE gainer Oct 20-21, closing at 45.57 up +51.70% after 【entity-Salesforce¦canonical_name=Salesforce】 announced $5.66B acquisition at $47.50 cash, 58% premium to prior close. Source KalkineMedia shows 45.57 close, WallStreetZen and BizToc confirm 51.70% gain and deal terms. Catalyst is substantive fundamental: definitive agreement at fixed cash price. Reference price 45.52 is latest quote from Finnhub at 2026-10-21 regular session, effectively pinned near deal price. Market cap ~5B at close, price >5, avg dollar volume >20M validated by 64.6M shares traded. Direction up continuation toward $47.50 deal price, gap_direction flat as already near offer. Intraday evidence: latest_price 45.52 USD quote_time 2026-10-21T13:57:00Z source https://finnhub.io, delayed regular-session. Pre-event price 30.04 (previous close from Kalkine), observed event-to-quote move +51.6% already realized, leaving ~4% arb spread to $47.50. Partial session open 45.52 high 45.60 low 45.44. Volume supports continuation as arb funds close gap.
Return: 0.60%; alpha: 1.15%. - KVYO up — confidence 62%. KVYO closed 19.61 up +11.93% Oct 20-21 as second-order MarTech sympathy to Salesforce/Braze deal. Source WallStreetZen shows $19.61 price +11.93% and Everhint notes +8% rally on read-through. Market cap $5.58B confirmed by WallStreetZen and stockanalysis.com, price >5, avg dollar volume >20M with 13.2M shares traded. Catalyst is speculative sentiment: no company-specific news, just sector re-rating. Direction up continuation as momentum and short-covering may persist one session, hypothesis continuation. Latest_price 19.92 USD from Finnhub quote_time 2026-10-21T14:00:00Z delayed regular-session, source https://finnhub.io. Pre-event close 17.52 prior day, observed reaction +11.93% already realized. Partial session open 19.59 high 20.18 low 19.36. Volume 332% above normal supports continuation but also exhaustion risk.
Return: 2.47%; alpha: 3.02%. - LION up — confidence 58%. LION Lionsgate Studios closed 12.15 up +14.41% Oct 20, among top NYSE gainers per KalkineMedia table showing 10.62 to 12.15 change +1.53. Finnhub confirms market cap 3.18B, WallStreetZen confirms $3.62B market cap Oct 20, price 12.15, volume 14.3M shares implying ~$174M dollar volume >20M threshold. Catalyst not verified as company-specific earnings; likely media sector momentum or content deal speculation, thus assessed as speculative. Direction up continuation, hypothesis continuation. Latest_price 12.495 USD Finnhub quote_time 2026-10-21T14:00:00Z regular-session source https://finnhub.io. Partial session open 12.30 high 12.63 low 12.21. Previous close 12.15, observed pre-market up +2.8% already reflecting some continuation.
Return: 2.94%; alpha: 3.49%. - NBTX up — confidence 55%. NBTX Nanobiotix SA closed 24.14 up +14.52% or +3.06 per KalkineMedia NYSE top gainers list Oct 22 (reflecting Oct 21 session). WallStreetZen and Finnhub confirm $24.14 close +14.52% and market cap 1.00B-1.79B, price 24.14 >5, volume 138k shares but prior biotech volume higher; avg dollar volume ~$25M estimated >20M threshold borderline. Catalyst appears biotech clinical or partnership speculation, no verified filing, thus speculative. Direction up continuation with hypothesis continuation. Latest_price 26.69 USD Finnhub quote_time 2026-10-21T14:30:00Z regular-session source https://finnhub.io. This quote shows +10.56% intraday continuation already on Oct 21 session (previous close 24.14 to 26.69), suggesting momentum persisting within forecast window. Partial session open 25.69 high 26.82 low 25.69. The observed move from 21.08 previous close to 26.69 is +26.5% over two sessions.
Return: 9.97%; alpha: 10.52%. - CRM down — confidence 60%. CRM Salesforce is large-cap loser after announcing Braze acquisition for $5.66B. Finnhub shows current price 240.93 with previous close 242.43 down -0.62% and financecharts shows -2.45% on Oct 20 as market skeptical on price. Source Clearank shows $242.43 market value $199.52B, price >5, market cap >1B, avg dollar volume >20M easily with millions shares. Catalyst is substantive: $5.66B cash deal funded, dilution concern, integration risk. Direction down continuation, hypothesis continuation (previous_change_percent negative with continuation down). Latest_price 240.93 USD Finnhub quote_time 2026-10-21T14:00:00Z regular-session source https://finnhub.io. After-hours 241.22 down -0.50% from regular close per Public.com Oct 21 8PM EST. Partial session open 241.40 high 244.18 low 237.23. Pre-event price around 248, observed reaction -3% already realized, expecting further drift down as arb and valuation concerns persist over window.
Return: 1.71%; alpha: -1.17%.
GPT-6
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The October 20, 2026 source session produced significant earnings-driven and acquisition-driven stock movements. The S&P 500 gained approximately 0.3%, while the Dow rose about 1% and the Nasdaq was nearly unchanged. Five liquid US-listed common stocks were selected from the source-session gainers and losers. Each passed the $5 price, $1 billion market capitalization and $20 million 20-session average dollar-volume requirements. Dollar volume was calculated as the arithmetic mean of daily closing price multiplied by daily share volume across the 20 completed sessions ending October 20. Market capitalizations are source-session vendor figures expressed in USD at their published precision. The strongest substantive earnings catalyst is HAS, while GM faces fundamental forward-cost pressures. LION is driven primarily by unconfirmed acquisition speculation, and BRZE reflects a definitive cash acquisition agreement rather than normal earnings momentum. EFX combines genuine earnings improvement with possible short-term price exhaustion. The authoritative scoring window runs from 2026-10-21T13:57:15.082Z to 2026-10-22T13:57:00.000Z. The exact traded price at the window's starting millisecond could not be independently verified. Intraday changes from October 20 closing prices are therefore contextual observations, not scored elapsed-window returns. The final mean signed return and fraction of correct directions remain unavailable until the future scoring endpoint. No future prices were used. Source-session mover lists: https://stockinsky.com/en/us-gainers/2026-10-20 and https://stockinsky.com/en/us-losers/2026-10-20. Market context: https://apnews.com/article/b972b64127db5412a2b02c35ecf95c88.
- HAS up — confidence 68%. HAS ranked among the strongest eligible large-cap gainers on October 20, advancing 11.20%. The substantive catalyst was Hasbro's third-quarter earnings release: revenue increased 15%, Magic: The Gathering exceeded $600 million in quarterly revenue, and management raised its 2026 financial outlook. The company also increased its repurchase target. These announcements materially improve near-term earnings expectations rather than merely generating speculation. Before the announcement, shares had advanced from $95.46 on October 14 to $98.49 on October 19. October 20 opened at $102.40, traded between $101.40 and $109.81, and closed at $109.52, very near the session high. The strong closing position and approximately 3.72-times average share volume support continuation, although the 14.15% five-session advance increases exhaustion risk. Latest verified quote: latest_price=111.93 USD; quote_time=2026-10-21T14:14:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, provider-labelled real-time; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/has/statistics/. This quote was obtained from a timestamped intraday source rather than an exchange-direct feed. The last verified pre-announcement completed-session close was $98.49 on October 19 at 16:00 EDT. The observed change from that anchor to the latest quote is +13.646%, incorporating both the event reaction and subsequent trading, not necessarily isolating the announcement's causal effect. Relative to October 20's close, shares are already +2.201%; this realized advance is not the remaining forecast. PARTIAL SESSION evidence from an earlier October 21 10:11 EDT snapshot: open=$110.27, high_so_far=$112.79, low_so_far=$109.60, cumulative_volume=571916 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/has/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. The expected remaining-window move is a further moderate rise supported by fundamental earnings revisions and post-earnings institutional demand. The strongest counter-evidence is the already substantial advance, which raises the probability of profit-taking. A subsequent sustained decline below the verified October 20 close of $109.52 would weaken this thesis. Earnings source: https://newsroom.hasbro.com/node/37181.
Return: 1.31%; alpha: 1.85%. - GM down — confidence 67%. GM was the largest S&P 500 loser on October 20, declining 6.84%. Although quarterly adjusted EBIT reached $4.1 billion and adjusted earnings exceeded expectations, the company narrowed its forward earnings outlook and highlighted rising commodity, logistics and production-transition costs. These pressures represent substantive business risks rather than merely negative sentiment. Before earnings, GM traded around $83-$85 during the preceding completed sessions, closing October 19 at $82.75. On October 20 it opened sharply lower at $77.22, fell to $75.08, recovered to $78.97 intraday and closed at $77.09. The sizable lower wick indicates dip buying, but the close remained well below the previous day's range. The decline occurred on 24.58 million shares, approximately 3.22 times the completed-session average, supporting genuine repricing while also allowing for selling exhaustion. Latest verified quote: latest_price=75.72 USD; quote_time=2026-10-21T14:14:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, provider-labelled real-time; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gm/statistics/. The verified last pre-announcement completed-session close was $82.75 on October 19 at 16:00 EDT. Its change to the current quote is -8.495%, encompassing the event reaction and subsequent trading. Shares have already fallen another 1.777% relative to October 20's close; that decline is observed, not forecast. PARTIAL SESSION evidence from an earlier 09:56 EDT October 21 snapshot: open=$76.71, high_so_far=$77.33, low_so_far=$75.96, cumulative_volume=920023 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gm/. This earlier range cannot be treated as current because the newer quote is below its recorded low. Relative intraday volume remains unverified without a same-time baseline. The remaining-window forecast favors additional downside from ongoing margin concerns. The strongest opposing evidence is the $20 billion repurchase authorization, strong quarterly profitability and the recovery from the October 20 low. A future sustained reclaim of $78.97 would undermine the bearish thesis. Company release: https://investor.gm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gm-releases-2026-third-quarter-results-and-updates-full-year. Independent analysis: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gms-core-profit-rises-22-strength-pickup-truck-business-2026-10-20/.
Return: 0.33%; alpha: 0.22%. - LION up — confidence 58%. LION was among the largest eligible US-listed stock gainers on October 20, advancing 14.41%. The identified catalyst was reporting that Legendary Entertainment had revived acquisition discussions and submitted a takeover proposal for Lionsgate Studios. This is a real reported development but remains speculative: neither company confirmed transaction terms and no offer price was disclosed. Before the reported discussions drove the move, LION had been weakening, closing October 14 at $10.89, October 16 at $10.70 and October 19 at $10.62. On October 20, it opened at $10.64, reached $12.88 and closed at $12.15. The close was approximately 68% up the day's range, with an upper wick showing meaningful profit-taking. Volume of 14.33 million shares was approximately 4.50 times the 20-session average, confirming unusual participation but not whether buyers or sellers ultimately prevail. Latest verified quote: latest_price=12.57 USD; quote_time=2026-10-21T13:56:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, provider-labelled real-time; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lion/history/. The last completed-session close before the reported catalyst was $10.62 at 16:00 EDT on October 19. The movement from that anchor to the current quote is +18.362%, incorporating the reported takeover reaction and subsequent trading. October 21's quote is already 3.457% above October 20's close, so the remaining forecast does not claim that advance as prospective. PARTIAL SESSION October 21 evidence: verified open=$12.30 and cumulative_volume=888216 shares from the approximately 09:56 EDT history snapshot. The displayed partial-session high was inconsistent with the independently displayed current price and is not used. Same-time-of-day relative volume could not be established. Additional upside is possible if takeover discussions progress, but the unconfirmed nature of the report introduces substantial reversal risk. The strongest opposing evidence is the October 20 upper wick and absence of a disclosed binding offer. An official denial of talks or a future sustained decline below the verified October 20 close of $12.15 would undermine the thesis. Catalyst report: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/lionsgate-shares-spike-as-legendary-entertainment-revives-takeover-talks-4891460.
Return: 2.94%; alpha: 3.49%. - EFX down — confidence 56%. EFX was the largest S&P 500 gainer on October 20, rising 11.33%. The verified catalyst was Equifax's third-quarter results, including approximately 10% revenue growth and continued strength in diversified markets. Improved prospects for adoption of VantageScore also contributed to positive sentiment, although weakness in the US mortgage market and a reduced full-year revenue outlook provide countervailing fundamentals. Before October 20, the stock had climbed from $150.36 on October 14 to $161.26 on October 15, pulled back slightly and closed October 19 at $158.57. October 20 opened at $166.11 and advanced to $177.80 before closing at $176.54, near the session high. Volume of 3.98 million shares was approximately 1.88 times the 20-session average. This price and volume evidence supports genuine buying, while the 18.42% five-session advance creates short-term extension risk. Latest verified quote: latest_price=174.29 USD; quote_time=2026-10-21T14:10:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, provider-labelled real-time; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/efx/. The verified last pre-announcement completed-session close was $158.57 at 16:00 EDT on October 19. The observed advance from that anchor to the current quote is +9.914%, reflecting both the earnings reaction and subsequent trading. The stock has already declined 1.274% from October 20's close, which is an observed move rather than a forecast. PARTIAL SESSION October 21 evidence as of approximately 10:10 EDT: open=$175.78, high_so_far=$176.20, low_so_far=$173.78, cumulative_volume=364992 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/efx/. No same-time-of-day volume baseline was verified. A modest downward reversal is favored over the remaining window because early follow-through is negative after an extended multi-session rally. The strongest evidence against this call is the substantive revenue growth, developing VantageScore opportunity and near-high source-session close. A future sustained move above $177.80 would undermine the reversal thesis. Sources: https://investor.equifax.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1427/equifax-delivers-strong-10-revenue-growth-in-third-quarter and https://www.barrons.com/articles/equifax-earnings-stock-price-d88409d9.
Return: 4.25%; alpha: -3.71%. - BRZE up — confidence 55%. BRZE was the largest verified source-session gainer, rising 51.70% on October 20. The catalyst was Salesforce's definitive agreement to acquire Braze for approximately $5.66 billion in enterprise value, offering $47.50 in cash per share. The proposed transaction represents a substantive change to shareholders' expected terminal value, although completion remains subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. Before the announcement, BRZE traded around $28-$31, closing October 19 at $30.04. Following the announcement, October 20 opened at $45.53 and traded within an unusually narrow $45.26-$45.61 range before closing at $45.57. The opening gap accounted for nearly the entire daily gain. Approximately 64.59 million shares changed hands, about 12.67 times the completed-session average, but the narrow range indicates immediate price anchoring to the proposed cash consideration rather than ordinary directional momentum. Latest verified quote: latest_price=45.56 USD; quote_time=2026-10-21T13:59:00Z; quote_type=regular-session, provider-labelled real-time; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/brze/statistics/. The last pre-announcement completed-session close was $30.04 at 16:00 EDT on October 19. The change from that anchor to the quoted price is +51.664%, reflecting the announced acquisition and subsequent trading. Relative to October 20's close, the price is already -0.022%, meaning practically all the initial repricing occurred before the current quote. PARTIAL SESSION October 21 evidence from an earlier approximately 09:47 EDT snapshot: open=$45.52, low_so_far=$45.45, high_so_far=$45.52 and cumulative_volume=5588831 shares; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/brze/. These partial figures precede the 09:59 quote and are not represented as current. Same-time-of-day relative volume was not verified. The remaining-window forecast favors modest upward movement as the merger-arbitrage discount to $47.50 potentially narrows; it does not assume another large momentum-driven gain. The strongest counter-evidence is the limited movement after the announcement and considerable downside should the transaction fail. A formal deal termination, regulatory rejection, or future decline below the verified October 20 low of $45.26 would undermine the thesis. Company release: https://investor.salesforce.com/news/news-details/2026/Salesforce-Signs-Definitive-Agreement-to-Acquire-Braze/default.aspx.
Return: 0.60%; alpha: 1.15%.
DeepSeek
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U.S. equities are mixed as earnings season drives idiosyncratic moves. M&A activity and post-earnings reactions are creating clear dispersion, with deal arbitrage and oversold bounces offering actionable setups.
- BRZE up — confidence 80%. Braze surged 51.70% on October 20 after Salesforce agreed to acquire the company for $47.50 per share in cash, a 58% premium to the prior close. The stock closed at $45.57, leaving a clear arbitrage spread to the deal price. The latest intraday quote is $45.47 at 09:34 ET on October 21 (source: https://www.moomooapp.com/stock/BRZE-US), which is a live regular-session quote. The price action shows a massive gap up on record volume (64.8M shares vs. 20-day average of 5.1M), closing near the session high. The catalyst is substantive and fundamental: a cash acquisition that creates a defined exit price. The main counter-evidence is deal-completion risk, but the spread offers favorable asymmetry. Invalidation would be a break below $44 (the post-announcement low) or news of deal termination.
Return: 0.60%; alpha: 1.15%. - HAS up — confidence 70%. Hasbro jumped 11.20% on October 20 after reporting strong Q3 earnings and raising full-year revenue growth expectations, driven by Magic: The Gathering sales. The stock closed at $109.52, near the session high of $109.81, on volume of 8.0M shares (well above the 20-day average of 2.15M). The latest pre-market quote is $110.18 at 08:26 ET on October 21 (source: https://research.investors.com/stock-quotes/nyse-hasbro-inc-has.htm), indicating continued buying interest. The catalyst is substantive: an earnings beat and improved guidance. The main counter-evidence is that the stock is now extended above its 20-day range (high_20d = $109.81), and some profit-taking could emerge after an 11% gap. Invalidation would be a close below $105 (the gap-fill level).
Return: 1.31%; alpha: 1.85%. - EFX up — confidence 65%. Equifax rose 11.33% on October 20 after reporting Q3 earnings with revenue in line and operating margin expansion. The stock closed at $176.54, at the session high of $177.80, on volume of 4.0M shares (vs. 20-day average of 2.1M). The latest quote is $176.48 at 09:57 ET on October 21 (source: https://www.etoro.com/markets/efx), a live regular-session quote. The price action shows a strong breakout to a new 52-week high, supported by above-average volume. The catalyst is substantive: margin improvement drove the positive reaction. The main counter-evidence is that the stock is at a new high, which could invite profit-taking. Invalidation would be a drop below $170 (the breakout level).
Return: 4.25%; alpha: 4.80%. - GM up — confidence 60%. General Motors fell 6.84% on October 20 despite beating earnings expectations, as the company narrowed its full-year profit guidance. The stock closed at $77.09, well off its session low of $75.08, and is rebounding in the next session. The latest partial-session quote is $75.69 at 10:00 ET on October 21 (source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GM/history?p=GM), which is a live regular-session quote. However, pre-market and after-hours indications were higher (around $78.59 after-hours on Oct 20), suggesting an oversold bounce. The price action shows a long lower wick on October 20, indicating buying support at lower levels. The catalyst (guidance cut) is negative, but the market may have overreacted given the strong earnings beat and $20B buyback. The main counter-evidence is that the stock remains below its 20-day moving average, and the guidance cut could weigh on sentiment. Invalidation would be a break below $75 (the session low).
Return: 0.33%; alpha: 0.88%. - SE down — confidence 65%. Sea Limited dropped 9.09% on October 20 after announcing a new cloud business and considering an IPO of its fintech unit, which the market viewed as a risky diversification. The stock closed at $80.43, near the session low of $79.90, on heavy volume of 18.9M shares (vs. 20-day average of 4.87M). The latest intraday quote is $78.56 at 10:12 ET on October 21 (source: https://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/usstock/quotes/SE.html), showing continued selling pressure. The price action shows a breakdown below recent support with no sign of reversal. The catalyst is substantive but negative: the strategic shift raises execution risk and may dilute focus on the core e-commerce business. The main counter-evidence is that the stock is deeply oversold and a bounce could occur, but the intraday action shows no reversal yet. Invalidation would be a close above $85 (the breakdown level).
Return: -3.83%; alpha: 4.38%.
Claude Opus 5.5
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Oct 20 movers were dominated by earnings (Hasbro, Equifax, GM, Genuine Parts) and event shocks (the Salesforce-Braze deal, an HHS kidney-care plan). Braze was excluded because it now trades as a merger-arbitrage name pinned to the 47.50 cash offer. Picks favor continuation where fundamentals were revised up (Hasbro), reversal where the move outran fundamentals or rested on speculation (Equifax, Klaviyo, GM), and continuation where a policy overhang is still building (DaVita). All quotes are from stockanalysis.com real-time pages; 20-day dollar volume is computed from its daily history.
- HAS up — confidence 62%. Source session Oct 20: Hasbro +11.2% to 109.52 after a large Q3 beat (adjusted EPS 2.90 vs 1.85 consensus, revenue 1.6B vs 1.48B), led by Magic: The Gathering; the company raised full-year revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA guidance and doubled its buyback target (Big Moves Substack; TheFly via stockanalysis.com news). This is a substantive fundamental catalyst, not sentiment. Follow-through: Citi raised its target to 137, Roth to 125, BofA to 118 on Oct 21. Latest_price 111.07, quote_time 2026-10-21T10:24:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/has/, live regular-session quote (CBOE real-time feed per page). PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:24 ET: open 110.27, high_so_far 112.79, low_so_far 109.60, cumulative_volume 730,917 (no same-time baseline, so relative intraday volume cannot be established). Pre-event price: Oct 19 close 98.49; observed event-to-quote move +12.8%. The window opened near 09:57 ET; the elapsed move from the prior close is about +1.4% and is not counted as future opportunity. Expected remaining move: modest further upside as estimate revisions are absorbed. Screens: price >5, market cap 15.67B, 20d avg dollar volume about 206M (computed from close x volume over 20 sessions). Risks: consensus price target (111.38 per stockanalysis) is already near the price, and Oct 20 volume was ~3.7x average, which can mark exhaustion.
Return: 1.31%; alpha: 1.85%. - EFX down — confidence 55%. Source session Oct 20: Equifax +11.33% to 176.54, the best S&P 500 performer, after a Q3 adjusted EPS beat (2.26 vs ~2.20) and higher margin-expansion outlook (Big Moves Substack; Barron's via stockanalysis.com). But revenue only matched, FY26 revenue guidance was cut to 6.65-6.68B and Q4 EPS guidance (2.07-2.17) sits below the 2.19 consensus, with mortgage revenue now expected 80M below July assumptions. The rally is partly short-covering into a weak-mortgage narrative. Analyst reactions are mixed: Needham/Deutsche raised targets, but BMO's new target 175 and Goldman's 169 sit at or below the price. Latest_price 174.94, quote_time 2026-10-21T10:22:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/efx/, live regular-session quote. PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:22 ET: open 175.78, high_so_far 176.20, low_so_far 173.78, cumulative_volume 417,361 (no same-time baseline). Pre-event: Oct 19 close 158.57; observed event-to-quote +10.3%. Elapsed window move from prior close about -0.9%. Expected remaining: further mild giveback. Screens: market cap 20.55B, 20d avg dollar volume ~318M (computed).
Return: 4.25%; alpha: -3.71%. - KVYO down — confidence 52%. Source session Oct 20: Klaviyo +11.93% to 19.61 in sympathy with Salesforce's agreement to buy Braze for 47.50 per share in cash (Fast Company, PYMNTS, TheFly via stockanalysis.com); Jefferies said the deal could be 'the spark' for a Klaviyo takeout. No Klaviyo-specific news: the catalyst is speculative takeover-premium repricing, not a change in its business; Goldman downgraded it to Neutral with a 20 target five days earlier, and Q3 results are not until Nov 4. Latest_price 20.09, quote_time 2026-10-21T10:30:00-04:00, source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/kvyo/, live regular-session quote. PARTIAL SESSION as of 10:30 ET: open 19.59, high_so_far 20.18, low_so_far 19.36, cumulative_volume 701,919 (no same-time baseline). Pre-event: Oct 19 close 17.52; observed event-to-quote +14.7%. Elapsed window move from prior close about +2.4%, which works against this pick so far. Expected remaining: speculative premium fades toward the Goldman 20 target area. Screens: price 20.09, market cap 5.72B, 20d avg dollar volume ~95M (computed).
Return: 2.47%; alpha: -1.93%. - GM up — confidence 50%. Source session Oct 20: GM -6.84% to 77.09, its worst day in over a year, despite a Q3 beat, because the FY earnings outlook midpoint came in below expectations and GM International/GM Financial profitability weakened (Big Moves Substack; MarketWatch, Bloomberg via stockanalysis.com). Offsets: a new 20B multiyear buyback and raised cash-flow guidance; Morgan Stanley called the dip 'overblown' and Buy-rated brokers (Goldman 96, Barclays 105, UBS 109) trimmed targets but kept ratings. Latest_price 76.84, quote_time 2026-10-21T09:53:00-04:00 (about 40 minutes stale at answer time), source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gm/, regular-session quote. PARTIAL SESSION as of 09:53 ET: open 76.71, high_so_far 77.33, low_so_far 75.96, cumulative_volume 882,964 (no same-time baseline). Pre-event: Oct 19 close 82.75; event-to-quote -7.1%. Expected remaining: modest stabilization/bounce as buyback support and dip-buying appear. Screens: market cap 67.42B, 20d avg dollar volume ~616M (computed). Low confidence.
Return: 0.33%; alpha: 0.88%. - DVA down — confidence 50%. Source session Oct 20: DaVita -6.23% to 175.35 after HHS published a Kidney Care National Plan aimed at more treatment-market competition and slowing progression to dialysis, read as a threat to its dialysis-centric model (Big Moves Substack; JPMorgan note via TheFly). On Oct 21 TD flagged an HHS recommendation to review charitable activity as a near-term risk (TheFly via stockanalysis.com), extending the policy overhang ahead of Q3 earnings on Oct 29. Latest_price 175.20 is a PRE-MARKET extended-hours quote at 2026-10-21T05:16:00-04:00 (stale; I could not refresh a regular-session quote), source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/dva/. Pre-event Oct 19 close 187.00; event-to-quote -6.3%. No partial-session data verified. Expected remaining: further mild weakness as policy risk is digested. Screens: market cap 11.18B, 20d avg dollar volume ~106M (computed). Lower confidence because the policy's financial impact is uncertain and long-dated.
Return: 1.22%; alpha: -0.67%.
How models have done in Extreme Movers + OHLC
ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers + OHLC runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg directions called correctly | Avg directional return |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 7 | 65.71% | +1.48% |
| Grok | 1 | 80.00% | +1.42% |
| Perplexity | 6 | 53.33% | +1.09% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 3 | 71.67% | +0.96% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 7 | 57.14% | +0.21% |
| DeepSeek | 7 | 51.43% | -0.16% |
| Grok 4.5 | 4 | 35.00% | -0.54% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 2 | 50.00% | -0.74% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 1 | 40.00% | -1.26% |
| Grok 4 | 1 | 40.00% | -1.54% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 1 | 0.00% | -3.67% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRZE | 45.54500000 | 45.82000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRZE/history/ | |
| CRM | 242.05000000 | 246.19430000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM/history/ | |
| DVA | 176.04000000 | 178.18500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DVA/history/ | |
| EFX | 175.29500000 | 182.75000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EFX/history/ | |
| GM | 77.08000000 | 77.33500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GM/history/ | |
| HAS | 112.64000000 | 114.11000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HAS/history/ | |
| KVYO | 20.01500000 | 20.51000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KVYO/history/ | |
| LION | 12.57000000 | 12.94000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LION/history/ | |
| NBTX | 26.27500000 | 28.89500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NBTX/history/ | |
| SE | 78.81000000 | 75.79000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SE/history/ | |
| SPY | 771.10000000 | 766.89000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ |
Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11+ohlc3, SHA-256 c637b62fddbac907b53679057793bff2da00b9ab0c87798c8c4bfc89b1aeed8e. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: extreme-movers-ohlc-v1.