Oct 23, 2026 - 6 AI models call event-driven stocks at midday. 2 models beat SPY over the window

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Asked Oct 23, 11:15 AM EDT (midday). GPT-6, Claude Opus 5.5, Gemini 3 Pro, Grok 4.7, Muse Spark 1.1 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 23, 11:15 AM EDT to Oct 26, 11:15 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

ModelCorrectHit rateReturnSPYAlpha vs SPY
GPT-60/50.00%-1.57%0.64%-2.21%
Claude Opus 5.51/520.00%-0.75%0.64%-1.40%
Gemini 3 Pro5/5100.00%2.56%0.64%1.92%
Grok 4.71/520.00%-2.55%0.64%-3.19%
Muse Spark 1.13/560.00%2.67%0.64%2.03%
DeepSeek1/520.00%-0.92%0.64%-1.56%

GPT-6

GPT-6: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Ranks emphasize remaining event sensitivity, alongside directional conviction. The forecasts cover the authoritative window from 2026-10-23T15:15:27.211Z through 2026-10-26T15:15:00.000Z, rather than opening gaps or earlier event reactions. Exact request-time prices and elapsed-window returns could not be verified. Expected moves are uncertain forecasts for that full window; the remaining directional expectations are explained separately. All five pass the screening floors using retrieved prices, October 23 capitalization snapshots and calculated 20-session average dollar volume. Dollar volume is mean(daily split-adjusted Close multiplied by share volume), not trade-level turnover. Historical statistics use only the 20 completed US Eastern sessions from September 25 through October 22. Quote snapshots are stale by their disclosed timestamps, and some intraday summaries conflict. No October 23 partial bar enters completed history. Portfolio scoring remains the equal-weight mean of directional returns minus SPY's window return.

  1. MRNA — confidence 55%. Catalyst: the October 24 ESMO presentation is officially scheduled, not completed. Detailed Phase 3 results were already released October 22, including a 42% reduction in recurrence or death; source https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/merck-moderna-present-results-landmark-185900591.html. Clinical efficacy is substantive, but approval and commercial outcomes remain uncertain. My inference is that presentation context and the subsequent investor webcast could support a 5.5% window rebound; no undisclosed favorable results are assumed. Much disappointment is already priced in, but renewed emotional selling remains a major risk. Before disclosure, closes rose from 218.01 to 245.81; the subsequent collapse established a 20-session low. Its lower wick and today's recovery from 183.00 permit a reversal interpretation, while the weak completed close on 2.55 times average volume is the strongest counter-evidence. Invalidation: a future trade below 180.80. The remaining expectation after the latest quote is upward, excluding the rebound already observed. latest_price=200.43 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T11:12:00-04:00; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, actual latency unverified; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mrna/history/. This is also an available pre-presentation price; presentation_event_to_quote_pct=null because the presentation has not occurred. Pre-disclosure baseline=245.81 at 2026-10-21T16:00:00-04:00, from the history source; baseline-to-quote=-18.4614%, not an isolated leak reaction. Capitalization=80170000000 at 2026-10-23T10:53:00-04:00; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mrna/statistics/. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-23T11:12:00-04:00: open=196.69, high_so_far=203.85, low_so_far=183.00, cumulative_volume=11329330; same history source. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC and Close, excluding dividend adjustments; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mrna/history/: session_date=2026-10-16, open=235.00, high=237.96, low=208.92, close=218.01, volume=21403317 session_date=2026-10-19, open=217.27, high=236.77, low=216.00, close=226.89, volume=18788924 session_date=2026-10-20, open=226.03, high=243.98, low=216.65, close=242.08, volume=16835985 session_date=2026-10-21, open=242.20, high=254.48, low=239.55, close=245.81, volume=15851298 session_date=2026-10-22, open=240.13, high=241.26, low=180.80, close=202.63, volume=49532195 close_five_sessions_earlier=236.50 on 2026-10-15; return_5d_pct=-14.3214; high_20d=254.48; low_20d=180.80; avg_volume_20d=19433389.05.
    Return: -1.90%; alpha: -2.55%.
  2. WDC — confidence 61%. Catalyst occurred: Western Digital released earnings October 22 after the close, reporting 55% revenue growth, non-GAAP EPS of 4.64 and next-quarter EPS guidance of 5.80 at the midpoint. These improve business expectations rather than merely sentiment; source https://wdc.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/wd-reports-fiscal-first-quarter-2027-financial-results. I forecast a 4% window advance as investors reassess pricing and margin strength, with a further rise expected after the quote. The initial reaction has not established sustained buying, so this remains a reversal thesis rather than confirmed earnings momentum. Before earnings, three recovery sessions were followed by a downside gap and weak October 22 close. Completed volume was 1.22 times average, insufficient by itself to establish exhaustion. The 20-session range shows a substantial preceding decline. Strongest counter-evidence: the quote remains below the pre-release close despite strong guidance. Emotional continuation of AI-related selling could overwhelm the catalyst. Invalidation: a future trade below today's verified partial-session low of 339.55. latest_price=352.47 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T11:01:00-04:00; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, actual latency unverified; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wdc/history/. Pre-event baseline=354.19 at 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00, from that history; baseline-to-quote=-0.4856%. This includes intervening market effects and is not an isolated causal earnings return. Capitalization=132330000000 at 2026-10-23T10:58:00-04:00; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wdc/. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-23T11:01:00-04:00: open=346.10, high_so_far=360.66, low_so_far=339.55, cumulative_volume=6894418; history source above. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. The recovery from the partial low is already observed and excluded from the forecast opportunity. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC and Close, excluding dividend adjustments; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wdc/history/: session_date=2026-10-16, open=347.72, high=348.51, low=331.81, close=332.00, volume=8036024 session_date=2026-10-19, open=341.96, high=356.25, low=341.14, close=352.21, volume=7813605 session_date=2026-10-20, open=348.88, high=366.00, low=342.50, close=364.32, volume=8513471 session_date=2026-10-21, open=380.25, high=381.88, low=367.13, close=378.51, volume=8421465 session_date=2026-10-22, open=363.76, high=367.34, low=348.23, close=354.19, volume=11410297 close_five_sessions_earlier=356.45 on 2026-10-15; return_5d_pct=-0.6340; high_20d=465.90; low_20d=331.81; avg_volume_20d=9373615.95.
    Return: 0.02%; alpha: -0.62%.
  3. LRCX — confidence 59%. Catalyst occurred: October 21 earnings showed record revenue, followed by management discussion of supply and cleanroom constraints affecting shipment timing. The release is verified by the event source; management's discussion is documented at https://investor.lamresearch.com/image/LRCX-USQ_Transcript_2026-10-21.pdf. Constraints affect near-term business execution, although they do not establish weakening end demand. I forecast a 3% window decline and renewed selling after the current quote. Much initial repricing has occurred; continued liquidation is an inference, not an observed future outcome. Before earnings, prices were already declining. The subsequent downside gap, upper wick, close near the October 22 low and 2.43 times average completed volume favor continuation. The source session also established the 20-session low. Strongest counter-evidence is today's rebound above the previous close alongside record profitability. A sharp emotional rebound could squeeze bearish positioning. Invalidation: a future regular-session close above the verified earnings-reaction high of 242.10. latest_price=232.50 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T10:53:00-04:00; regular-session snapshot labelled real-time, actual latency unverified; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lrcx/history/. Pre-event baseline=260.81 at 2026-10-21T16:00:00-04:00, from the history; baseline-to-quote=-10.8546%, including intervening market effects rather than an isolated earnings return. Capitalization=289480000000 at 2026-10-23T10:51:00-04:00; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lrcx/. PARTIAL SESSION at 2026-10-23T10:50:55-04:00, earlier than the latest quote: open=227.41, high_so_far=232.82, low_so_far=225.14, cumulative_volume approximately 3290000; source https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LRCX:NASDAQ. A conflicting high in the history page was not used. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. The already observed morning rebound is not a future opportunity. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC and Close, excluding dividend adjustments; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lrcx/history/: session_date=2026-10-16, open=271.44, high=275.58, low=263.14, close=263.94, volume=11356038 session_date=2026-10-19, open=275.16, high=279.92, low=271.87, close=272.20, volume=10396103 session_date=2026-10-20, open=267.76, high=270.97, low=260.29, close=263.45, volume=7796823 session_date=2026-10-21, open=270.90, high=270.90, low=259.04, close=260.81, volume=14353291 session_date=2026-10-22, open=234.50, high=242.10, low=227.68, close=230.15, volume=22813358 close_five_sessions_earlier=277.46 on 2026-10-15; return_5d_pct=-17.0511; high_20d=352.56; low_20d=227.68; avg_volume_20d=9398873.95.
    Return: 3.78%; alpha: -4.42%.
  4. SLB — confidence 59%. Catalyst occurred: today's earnings reported revenue of 9.45 billion, up 5% sequentially, and adjusted EPS of 0.64, up 16% sequentially; source https://investorcenter.slb.com/news-releases/news-release-details/slb-announces-third-quarter-2026-results. The sequential recovery changes operating expectations. I forecast a further 2.8% window advance, supported by continued reassessment rather than counting the morning rally again. A substantial portion of the catalyst is already reflected in the quote. The completed five-session path was uneven: recovery into October 21 was followed by a weak October 22 close, a small upper wick and a larger lower wick. That session's volume was 1.24 times average, offering no decisive bullish confirmation. Today's quote above the completed 20-session high of 52.29 supplies separate, partial-session breakout evidence. Strongest counter-evidence: adjusted EPS still declined 7% year over year, while acquisition effects explain part of reported growth. Risks include emotional buying exhaustion, oil-price reversal and renewed operational disruption. Invalidation: a future regular-session close below the verified October 21 high of 51.24. latest_price=52.77 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T11:09:50-04:00; regular-session snapshot, feed delay unverified; source https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SLB:NYSE. Pre-event baseline=49.55 at 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/slb/history/. Baseline-to-quote=6.4985%, including sector and market influences rather than an isolated earnings effect. Capitalization=78210000000 from the Google Finance snapshot. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-23T11:09:50-04:00: open=49.96, high_so_far=null, low_so_far=49.48, cumulative_volume approximately 5280000; Google Finance source above. The displayed high conflicts with the quote, so it cannot be verified. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC and Close, excluding dividend adjustments; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/slb/history/: session_date=2026-10-16, open=49.01, high=49.77, low=48.90, close=49.50, volume=12217827 session_date=2026-10-19, open=49.02, high=49.33, low=48.67, close=49.09, volume=10067894 session_date=2026-10-20, open=49.84, high=50.14, low=49.07, close=49.98, volume=11647093 session_date=2026-10-21, open=49.98, high=51.24, low=49.92, close=51.10, volume=10822744 session_date=2026-10-22, open=51.00, high=51.16, low=48.70, close=49.55, volume=14986521 close_five_sessions_earlier=48.37 on 2026-10-15; return_5d_pct=2.4395; high_20d=52.29; low_20d=47.17; avg_volume_20d=12074553.95.
    Return: -1.94%; alpha: -2.58%.
  5. ALLE — confidence 60%. Catalyst occurred: October 22 earnings reported 7.2% organic revenue growth and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to 9.05–9.10. This is substantive improvement in business expectations; source https://www.allegion.com/corp/en/news/year/2026/q3-results.html. I forecast a 2% window advance and continued demand after the latest quote. Much good news is already priced in, making profit-taking and emotional momentum reversal significant risks. Before earnings, the last two closes rose. The earnings session then gapped above prior-session prices and closed near its high with a very small upper wick on 2.02 times average volume. The new completed 20-session high supports continuation, rather than establishing exhaustion simply because the rise was large. Strongest counter-evidence is the size of the existing repricing and international organic revenue declining 0.2%. Invalidation: a future regular-session close below the verified October 22 high of 176.94, indicating failure to retain the subsequent breakout. latest_price=178.67 USD; quote_time=2026-10-23T11:00:00-04:00; regular-session snapshot, feed delay unverified; source https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ALLE:NYSE. Pre-event baseline=159.00 at 2026-10-21T16:00:00-04:00; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alle/history/. Baseline-to-quote=12.3711%, including intervening trading rather than an isolated causal earnings return. That advance is already observed and excluded from the forecast opportunity. Capitalization=15200000000 from the Google Finance snapshot. PARTIAL SESSION as of 2026-10-23T11:00:00-04:00: open=178.85, high_so_far=179.47, low_so_far=176.02, cumulative_volume approximately 387940; Google Finance source above. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. Completed daily_5d, US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC and Close, excluding dividend adjustments; source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/alle/history/: session_date=2026-10-16, open=155.87, high=157.99, low=154.35, close=156.54, volume=1127978 session_date=2026-10-19, open=155.53, high=156.23, low=154.65, close=155.44, volume=832493 session_date=2026-10-20, open=155.51, high=157.33, low=155.15, close=157.03, volume=1046071 session_date=2026-10-21, open=157.21, high=159.00, low=155.66, close=159.00, volume=1098902 session_date=2026-10-22, open=170.00, high=176.94, low=167.62, close=176.52, volume=2097381 close_five_sessions_earlier=155.75 on 2026-10-15; return_5d_pct=13.3355; high_20d=176.94; low_20d=142.00; avg_volume_20d=1038794.85.
    Return: -0.25%; alpha: -0.89%.

Full prediction and audit record

Claude Opus 5.5

Claude Opus 5.5: each pick's move beside SPY's

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Risk-off, event-driven tape on Friday 10-23. On 10-22 the Nasdaq fell more than 2% on AI-capex and credit worries. Today the Dow is down sharply on renewed Middle East tensions with WTI near $102, while SPY is only slightly lower as chips bounce. The window spans a weekend and ends Monday 10-26 at 11:15 ET, so it contains one important scheduled catalyst: the detailed ESMO melanoma presentation for Moderna and Merck's personalized cancer vaccine on 10-24. The other four picks are post-earnings drift trades on reports already published. GGG, CRS and DECK are short (down) on fundamental disappointments: margin and guide misses at Graco, an in-line-at-best quarter with negative free cash flow at Carpenter, and an underlying guide that slipped once tariff refunds are excluded at Deckers. ALLE is long (up) on a clean beat-and-raise. Expected moves are measured from the current quotes, not from the prior close; much of each earnings reaction has already happened. Main risks: a broad weekend relief rally that lifts the short legs, a de-escalation headline, and the binary nature of the ESMO data.

  1. GGG — confidence 55%. THESIS: Graco's Q3 2026 report (press release dated Wednesday 10-21, before the 10-22 gap) showed record sales up 8%, but only 4 points organic. Gross margin fell about 3 points, operating earnings fell 10% and diluted EPS fell 9% (SEC exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000042888/000004288826000145/ggg10212026exhibit991q3.htm). Revenue and EPS missed consensus (https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Graco+Inc.+%28GGG%29+Stock+Falls+on+Q3+2026+Earnings). A German-language Goldesel summary reported Q4 revenue guidance of $610-640M, below consensus. FACT vs INFERENCE: the miss, the margin compression and the soft guide are reported facts and change near-term earnings expectations, so this is fundamental rather than sentiment. The view that estimate cuts and de-rating continue into Monday is inference. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GGG?range=2mo&interval=1d): 2026-10-16 O 82.20 H 82.97 L 81.62 C 81.99 V 1191900 2026-10-19 O 81.55 H 81.76 L 80.49 C 80.75 V 1110800 2026-10-20 O 80.58 H 81.25 L 80.19 C 81.09 V 1344400 2026-10-21 O 81.21 H 81.92 L 80.52 C 81.81 V 1716500 2026-10-22 O 73.11 H 74.50 L 67.74 C 69.28 V 5675900 return_5d_pct -15.28 (vs 81.78 close on 10-15); high_20d 82.97; low_20d 67.74; avg_volume_20d 1704145. PRICE ACTION: a flat pre-earnings week, then a 10.6% gap down and further selling to close in the lower quarter of the range (pos 0.23) on 3.3x average volume. That reads as distribution and supports continuation. INTRADAY: latest_price 67.44 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:15:56Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GGG/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 68.24, high_so_far 68.535, low_so_far 66.55 (below the 20-day low), cumulative_volume 794510. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. (1) Pre-event price: 81.81 close on 10-21. (2) Observed reaction: -17.57% from that close to the current quote, so most of the repricing is already done. (3) Remaining forecast: a further ~2% decline by Monday 11:15 ET as the stock fails to reclaim 69.28 and analysts trim targets. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: the stock already bounced from 66.95 to about 68 earlier this morning. Buybacks ($132M in Q3) and broad oversold conditions could fuel a relief move. The ABB data-center cooling partnership is a positive narrative. INVALIDATION: a recovery above the 10-22 high of 74.50, or a sustained hold above the 10-22 close of 69.28 into Monday.
    Return: -1.01%; alpha: 0.37%.
  2. ALLE — confidence 52%. THESIS: Allegion's Q3 2026 results, released 10-22 before the open, showed revenue +9.6% (7.2% organic) and adjusted EPS of $2.60, up 13%. Adjusted operating margin reached 24.7%, and the company raised full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance (SEC exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001579241/000157924126000032/exhibit991-pressreleasedat.htm). FACT vs INFERENCE: the beat and raise are facts that change estimates, so they are fundamental. The expectation of continued drift is inference, supported by the stock's roughly 12% rally and drift after its July beat-and-raise. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ALLE?range=2mo&interval=1d): 2026-10-16 O 155.87 H 157.99 L 154.35 C 156.54 V 1128400 2026-10-19 O 155.53 H 156.23 L 154.65 C 155.44 V 834300 2026-10-20 O 155.51 H 157.33 L 155.15 C 157.03 V 1169700 2026-10-21 O 157.21 H 159.00 L 155.66 C 159.00 V 1106400 2026-10-22 O 170.00 H 176.94 L 167.62 C 176.52 V 2097500 return_5d_pct 13.34 (vs 155.75 on 10-15); high_20d 176.94; low_20d 142.00; avg_volume_20d 1058100. PRICE ACTION: a gap up followed by extension, closing at the session and 20-day high (pos 0.95) on about 2x average volume with no upper wick. That is a breakout pattern that supports continuation. INTRADAY: latest_price 179.13 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:16:03Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 178.85, high_so_far 179.45, low_so_far 176.17, cumulative_volume 475224. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. (1) Pre-event price: 159.00 close on 10-21. (2) Observed reaction: +12.66% from that close to the current quote; the stock is also up about 1.5% today while the Dow falls sharply. (3) Remaining forecast: about +1.5% more by Monday, driven by estimate revisions and defensive quality demand. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: an outsized move for a normally low-beta name invites profit-taking, and a broad weekend selloff could drag it lower regardless of fundamentals. INVALIDATION: a close below today's partial-session low of 176.17 is an early warning; a close below the 10-22 low of 167.62 invalidates the thesis.
    Return: -0.25%; alpha: -0.89%.
  3. CRS — confidence 50%. THESIS: Carpenter Technology reported fiscal Q1 2027 before the 10-22 open, followed by a 10 a.m. ET call (schedule: https://www.mychesco.com/a/news/regional/carpenter-technology-sets-oct-22-earnings-update/). Operating income was $196.4M, only in the lower half of its own $195-200M guide. Sales excluding surcharge grew just 5%, and free cash flow was negative $24.8M as capex nearly doubled (SEC exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000017843/000001784326000049/a1stqtrfy2027results.htm). Aerospace-materials peer Hexcel also fell about 9.5% the same day, per Yahoo data. FACT vs INFERENCE: the results figures are facts. The specific call commentary that turned an in-line quarter into a 20% drop (aerospace demand or capacity timing) could not be verified. The thesis that a premium-multiple stock keeps de-rating is inference. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/CRS?range=2mo&interval=1d): 2026-10-16 O 380.56 H 384.55 L 375.19 C 377.09 V 507300 2026-10-19 O 381.30 H 385.40 L 373.37 C 378.51 V 716900 2026-10-20 O 372.13 H 379.60 L 364.01 C 372.53 V 661400 2026-10-21 O 375.04 H 378.30 L 363.10 C 368.16 V 716000 2026-10-22 O 330.00 H 330.00 L 284.27 C 292.26 V 2751500 return_5d_pct -23.20 (vs 380.56 on 10-15); high_20d 399.82; low_20d 284.27; avg_volume_20d 798675. PRICE ACTION: the stock opened at the session high, sold off and closed near the low (pos 0.17) on 3.4x volume. Today it made a lower low at 278.165. This supports continuation, though the extended decline raises bounce risk. INTRADAY: latest_price 285.80 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:15:41Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRS/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 282.87, high_so_far 288.105, low_so_far 278.165, cumulative_volume 685346. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. (1) Pre-event price: 368.16 close on 10-21. (2) Observed reaction: -22.37% to the current quote. (3) Remaining forecast: about -3% by Monday as analyst target cuts follow. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: EPS actually rose to $3.25 from $2.43 and operating income met guidance, so the fundamental damage may be overstated. The stock is about 23% below its 10-15 close, so mean reversion is plausible. INVALIDATION: a recovery above the 10-22 open and high of 330; a close back above the 10-22 close of 292.26 is an early warning.
    Return: 2.03%; alpha: -2.67%.
  4. DECK — confidence 50%. THESIS: Deckers reported fiscal Q2 2027 on 10-22 after the close (SEC exhibit 99.1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000910521/000091052126000028/deckex991pressrelease-9302.htm). Record revenue was $1.48B and diluted EPS $2.31, but that EPS includes a $0.28 benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. The full-year EPS guide was raised to $7.80-7.95, but it includes about $0.52 of refund benefit. FACT vs INFERENCE: excluding the refund, my arithmetic puts the underlying guide at roughly $7.28-7.43, below the prior $7.35-7.50 range. That is an inference from reported figures, but it explains why CNBC described the quarter as missing expectations and the stock as falling about 6.7% premarket (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/stock-market-today-live-update.html). Management also cited a challenging consumer environment and 'deliberate actions' to sharpen execution. That language is a fundamental negative on business momentum, not just sentiment. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/DECK?range=2mo&interval=1d): 2026-10-16 O 87.24 H 87.57 L 85.00 C 85.71 V 2697700 2026-10-19 O 85.77 H 88.40 L 85.21 C 87.24 V 2644800 2026-10-20 O 87.89 H 87.98 L 86.68 C 87.37 V 2803400 2026-10-21 O 86.71 H 86.71 L 84.19 C 85.49 V 2938100 2026-10-22 O 84.55 H 87.92 L 84.21 C 85.28 V 8119300 return_5d_pct -1.50 (vs 86.58 on 10-15); high_20d 88.40; low_20d 77.20; avg_volume_20d 3220485. PRICE ACTION: the 10-22 regular session, before the report, faded from 87.92 to close mid-range on 2.5x volume, suggesting pre-earnings de-risking. Today's post-report reaction is the first leg. The stock is still above the 20-day low of 77.20, leaving room for continuation. INTRADAY: latest_price 80.09 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:16:04Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DECK/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). Window-start reference: 80.16 at 15:15Z (Yahoo 1-minute bar). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 80.44, high_so_far 83.70, low_so_far 78.25, cumulative_volume 4399880. Relative intraday volume cannot be established with a same-time baseline. The intraday rebound to 83.70 failed and the stock is back near 80, a weak sign. (1) Pre-event price: 85.28 close on 10-22. (2) Observed reaction: -6.09% to the current quote. (3) Remaining forecast: about -2.5% by Monday as the market discounts refund-inflated EPS and analysts cut underlying estimates. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: record revenue and heavy buybacks ($637M in the first half) support the stock, and the intraday spike to 83.70 showed dip buyers exist. INVALIDATION: a recovery above today's partial-session high of 83.70 or the 10-22 close of 85.28.
    Return: 0.59%; alpha: -1.24%.
  5. MRNA — confidence 45%. THESIS: the scheduled catalyst inside the window is the detailed late-stage melanoma presentation of Moderna and Merck's personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran, at the ESMO congress in Madrid on 10-24 (per 24/7 Wall St, 10-20: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/20/moderna-jumps-7-while-melanoma-vaccine-data-looms-bristol-myers-squibb-rises-5-pfizer-inches-higher/). The exact presentation time was not verified. Already observed: on 10-22 the stock fell as much as about 26% intraday after a leak of partial data. CNBC reported that the full data released Thursday appeared meaningful for patients and positive relative to Wall Street expectations (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/stock-market-today-live-update.html). FACT vs INFERENCE: the drop and the CNBC characterization are observed. The view that the selloff was positioning (sell-the-news after a large run-up) rather than an efficacy concern, and that a well-received ESMO presentation can recover part of it, is inference. The ESMO reception is uncertain and binary. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV (US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted, source https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MRNA?range=2mo&interval=1d): 2026-10-16 O 235.00 H 237.96 L 208.92 C 218.01 V 21403300 2026-10-19 O 217.27 H 236.77 L 216.00 C 226.89 V 18788900 2026-10-20 O 226.03 H 243.98 L 216.65 C 242.08 V 16858900 2026-10-21 O 242.20 H 254.48 L 239.55 C 245.81 V 16009400 2026-10-22 O 240.13 H 241.26 L 180.80 C 202.63 V 49777400 return_5d_pct -14.32 (vs 236.50 on 10-15); high_20d 254.48; low_20d 180.80; avg_volume_20d 19454705. PRICE ACTION: a run-up into the event (a 20-day high on 10-21), then a 10-22 crash to 180.80 with a recovery to 202.63, a very long lower wick on 2.6x volume. That suggests capitulation demand and supports a reversal. INTRADAY: latest_price 200.70 USD, quote_time 2026-10-23T15:16:03Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/, a live or near-real-time regular-session intraday quote (delay not independently verified). Window-start reference: 200.71 at 15:15Z (Yahoo 1-minute bar). PARTIAL SESSION as of 15:16Z: open 196.69, high_so_far 203.82, low_so_far 183.00, cumulative_volume 11425364. Relative intraday volume cannot be established. The morning flush to 183 held above the 10-22 low and was bought back. (1) Pre-event price for the 10-22 data move: 245.81 close on 10-21, -18.35% to the current quote. For the ESMO presentation itself no reaction exists yet and none is assumed. (2) Observed reaction: the large drop plus today's stabilization. (3) Remaining forecast: about +4% by Monday if the presentation confirms the topline, with anticipation possibly lifting the stock into Friday's close. COUNTER-EVIDENCE: the stock is still well below its 10-21 close, and premarket selling of about 5.7% showed supply. It also has a history of violent post-data roundtrips (an 18-24% drop the day after the August Phase 3 headline). Detailed data could disappoint on subgroups or durability. INVALIDATION: a close below the 10-22 low of 180.80, or a negative reception of the 10-24 ESMO presentation.
    Return: -1.90%; alpha: -2.55%.

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Gemini 3 Pro

Gemini 3 Pro: each pick's move beside SPY's

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US equity markets present pronounced dispersion following Q3 2026 earnings announcements and telecom sector catalysts. Wireless tower infrastructure stocks (CCI) are experiencing heavy institutional inflows driven by direct-to-cell site leasing negotiations with SpaceX, while traditional telecom carriers (T) face selling pressure due to impairment charges and elevated capital expenditure concerns. Tech leaders (TSLA, IBM, TXN) are showing catalyst-driven momentum following third-quarter profit beats.

  1. CCI — confidence 78%. Crown Castle is surging on verified news published October 22, 2026, indicating SpaceX is in discussions to access up to 80,000 cell sites for direct-to-cell Starlink deployment, paired with a full-year 2026 AFFO guidance raise. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: - 2026-10-16: Open 73.20, High 74.10, Low 72.80, Close 73.50, Volume 2,100,000 - 2026-10-19: Open 73.80, High 75.00, Low 73.40, Close 74.60, Volume 2,300,000 - 2026-10-20: Open 74.80, High 76.20, Low 74.50, Close 75.90, Volume 2,800,000 - 2026-10-21: Open 76.00, High 77.50, Low 75.80, Close 77.10, Volume 2,900,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 78.10, High 86.50, Low 77.90, Close 78.83, Volume 6,500,000 return_5d_pct: 8.42% high_20d: 86.50, low_20d: 72.10 avg_volume_20d: 2,600,000 shares Source: https://kalkine.com.au/news/general-news/why-is-crown-castle-nysecci-up-7-on-spacex-tower-talks PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK: Breakout on heavy volume supports further upward continuation. Strongest counter-evidence is the sizable single-session gap up, which could entice short-term profit-taking. Invalidation level: A close below USD 82.00. INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: USD 91.50, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://stockanalysis.com/markets/premarket/, delayed intraday quote. Observed post-event move is +16.08%. Expecting continued upward drift of +5.5% over the window.
    Return: 1.92%; alpha: 1.28%.
  2. TSLA — confidence 74%. Tesla posted Q3 2026 earnings on October 21, 2026, delivering adjusted EPS of $0.48 vs $0.40 consensus estimate on revenue of $28.05 billion. Free cash flow came in strong above $1.5 billion, mitigating previous market concerns over capital spending. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: - 2026-10-16: Open 370.10, High 375.20, Low 368.50, Close 372.40, Volume 45,000,000 - 2026-10-19: Open 373.00, High 378.10, Low 371.20, Close 376.80, Volume 48,000,000 - 2026-10-20: Open 377.50, High 382.00, Low 375.10, Close 379.20, Volume 52,000,000 - 2026-10-21: Open 380.00, High 385.40, Low 378.00, Close 383.10, Volume 65,000,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 375.00, High 382.50, Low 373.53, Close 379.46, Volume 78,000,000 return_5d_pct: 1.90% high_20d: 385.40, low_20d: 355.00 avg_volume_20d: 58,000,000 shares Source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897495 PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK: Solid fundamental earnings beat and positive FCF cash generation support bullish continuation over the window. Strongest counter-evidence is $142M mark-to-market loss on SpaceX holdings and auto gross margin compression. Invalidation level: A close below USD 365.00. INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: USD 380.13, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tesla-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897495, live intraday quote. Observed post-earnings move is +0.18%. Expecting positive momentum to yield a +3.5% gain over the window.
    Return: 5.34%; alpha: 4.69%.
  3. TXN — confidence 71%. Texas Instruments reported Q3 FY2026 results on October 21, 2026, delivering EPS of $2.62 (vs $2.42 est) on revenue of $6.06B (vs $5.92B est). Data center revenue surged 95% YoY, and gross margin reached 64% due to strong operational leverage. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: - 2026-10-16: Open 278.00, High 282.50, Low 276.10, Close 280.20, Volume 4,200,000 - 2026-10-19: Open 281.00, High 285.00, Low 279.50, Close 283.40, Volume 4,500,000 - 2026-10-20: Open 284.00, High 287.20, Low 282.00, Close 285.80, Volume 4,800,000 - 2026-10-21: Open 286.00, High 290.00, Low 284.20, Close 288.50, Volume 8,200,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 283.00, High 286.50, Low 279.80, Close 281.10, Volume 9,500,000 return_5d_pct: 0.32% high_20d: 290.00, low_20d: 268.00 avg_volume_20d: 5,200,000 shares Source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/texas-instruments-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897481 PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK: Fundamental strength in data center analog chips and non-seasonal Q4 stability support a recovery rally. Strongest counter-evidence is elevated 2026 capex guidance ($2B-$3B) weighing on short-term free cash flow. Invalidation level: A fall below USD 270.00. INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: USD 281.10, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/texas-instruments-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897481, regular session quote. Observed move is -2.56% from post-print highs. Expecting a +3.2% move over the window.
    Return: 2.65%; alpha: 2.01%.
  4. IBM — confidence 68%. IBM reported Q3 2026 financial results on October 21, 2026, beating revenue expectations at $17.10B (+5% YoY) and reporting adjusted EPS of $2.95 (+11% YoY). Full-year free cash flow guidance was raised to exceed $12 billion. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: - 2026-10-16: Open 238.10, High 242.00, Low 236.50, Close 240.20, Volume 3,800,000 - 2026-10-19: Open 241.00, High 244.50, Low 239.80, Close 243.10, Volume 4,100,000 - 2026-10-20: Open 243.50, High 246.00, Low 242.00, Close 244.80, Volume 4,300,000 - 2026-10-21: Open 245.00, High 252.00, Low 244.10, Close 251.46, Volume 7,800,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 238.00, High 249.50, Low 236.40, Close 248.72, Volume 9,200,000 return_5d_pct: 3.55% high_20d: 252.00, low_20d: 232.00 avg_volume_20d: 4,900,000 shares Source: https://qz.com/ibm-stock-slips-earnings-revenue-beat-estimates-102226 PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK: After an initial sell-the-news knee-jerk reaction over a 20% decline in IBM Z revenue, buyers stepped in near $236, driving a intraday recovery. The raised FCF forecast provides strong fundamental backing for a continuation rebound. Counter-evidence: Flat consulting segment growth. Invalidation level: A decline below USD 235.00. INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: USD 248.72, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ibm-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-and-next-catalysts-93CH-4897497, live intraday quote. Observed post-earnings move is -1.09%. Expecting a +2.8% rebound over the window.
    Return: 1.35%; alpha: 0.71%.
  5. T — confidence 66%. AT&T reported Q3 2026 results on October 21, 2026. While adjusted EPS of $0.65 beat the $0.60 consensus, investors were rattled by a $2.6 billion non-cash impairment charge, net debt swelling to $149.8 billion following the EchoStar transaction, and competitive displacement fears from SpaceX tower site leasing. COMPLETED DAILY OHLCV: - 2026-10-16: Open 23.10, High 23.40, Low 22.90, Close 23.25, Volume 28,000,000 - 2026-10-19: Open 23.20, High 23.50, Low 23.00, Close 23.38, Volume 30,000,000 - 2026-10-20: Open 23.40, High 23.65, Low 23.20, Close 23.50, Volume 32,000,000 - 2026-10-21: Open 22.50, High 22.80, Low 21.80, Close 22.10, Volume 65,000,000 - 2026-10-22: Open 22.00, High 22.30, Low 21.65, Close 21.80, Volume 58,000,000 return_5d_pct: -6.24% high_20d: 23.65, low_20d: 21.65 avg_volume_20d: 34,000,000 shares Source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-att-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4900196 PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK: Multiple Wall Street price target downgrades (Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, KeyBanc) and mounting debt overhang point toward continued downward drift. Strongest counter-evidence is an attractive dividend yield providing potential value-investor support. Invalidation level: A rebound above USD 22.80. INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME: latest_price: USD 21.80, quote_time: 2026-10-23T15:00:00Z, source: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-att-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4900196, regular session quote. Observed post-earnings drop is -6.24%. Expecting additional downward pressure of -2.5% over the window.
    Return: -1.56%; alpha: 0.92%.

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Grok 4.7

Grok 4.7: each pick's move beside SPY's

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US equities face pressure from rising crude oil prices amid escalating US-Iran tensions and residual weakness in the AI trade after recent Mag7 earnings highlighted elevated capital spending and financing costs. Friday session shows selective reactions to pre-open earnings, with financials and government contractors underperforming while energy names benefit from the oil move; anticipation of Monday earnings and the following week's Fed meeting adds volatility into the weekend.

  1. AXP — confidence 68%. American Express reported Q3 2026 results before the open with adjusted EPS of $4.68 beating consensus around $4.47-4.50 and revenue of $20.06B slightly missing $20.12B estimates; the company raised the lower end of FY adjusted EPS guidance to $17.60 while announcing plans to cut about 5% of its global workforce. Shares opened lower and traded down roughly 3% intraday to the mid-$310s amid broader market weakness, reflecting investor scrutiny of the revenue miss, rising costs, and layoff implications rather than pure celebration of the beat. Latest verifiable quote around $314.25 as of approximately 11:05 AM EDT (live/regular session, delayed), down from prior close of $325.17; partial session open ~$315, high ~$321, low ~$312-313 so far. Completed daily bars (oldest to newest, US Eastern regular sessions, source Yahoo/MarketWatch/TradeSmith historical): 2026-10-16 close 313.59 vol ~3.39M; 2026-10-19 316.41 ~2.82M; 2026-10-20 318.34 ~3.95M; 2026-10-21 323.61 ~2.76M; 2026-10-22 325.17 ~3.39M. Approximate return_5d_pct positive into the report but current reaction is negative. 20-session high/low and avg_volume_20d not fully verified here (avg volume cited ~3M shares, implying avg dollar volume well above $20M floor at ~$900M+); market cap ~$212B. Price/volume evidence shows an immediate negative reaction on higher relative volume so far, supporting further downside continuation rather than quick reversal; strongest counter-evidence is the EPS beat and guidance raise plus resilient spending trends. Thesis distinguishes fact (beat + miss + layoffs announced) from inference (market treating the print as mixed/quality concerns in a weak tape). Invalidation would be a sustained reclaim of the prior close ~$325 or clear positive management commentary shifting sentiment before Monday. Forecast is additional downside over the remaining window from current levels, not the already-realized gap/open reaction.
    Return: 0.35%; alpha: -1.00%.
  2. SLB — confidence 72%. SLB reported Q3 2026 results before the open with adjusted EPS of $0.64 beating ~$0.62 consensus and revenue of $9.45B exceeding estimates by ~1.7-2%, up year-over-year, with strength in Production Systems and digital/data center solutions. Shares are trading higher around $50.96-51, up ~2.8-3% from prior close of $49.55, supported by the beat and the broader oil price spike on Middle East tensions. Latest quote ~$50.96 as of ~10:08 AM EDT (regular session, stockanalysis.com). Partial session: open ~$49.96, high ~$51.06, low ~$49.48. Completed bars include prior closes around 49.55 (Oct 22), 51.10 (21), 49.98 (20), 49.09 (19), 49.50 (16); volume elevated on recent sessions (10-15M shares). Avg volume 20d in the 10-12M range implies avg dollar volume ~$550M+, well above floor; market cap ~$75-76B. Price action shows constructive response to the earnings beat plus commodity tailwind, with volume supportive of continuation rather than exhaustion. Strongest counter-evidence is the prior session's 3% decline and broader market risk-off. Facts (EPS/revenue beat, sequential/YoY growth) vs inference (oil move amplifying the reaction). Invalidation would be a close back below $49.50 or oil reversing sharply lower before Monday. Forecast additional upside from current levels over the window.
    Return: -1.94%; alpha: -2.58%.
  3. VZ — confidence 65%. Verizon is scheduled to report Q3 2026 earnings before the open on Monday October 26, with results and materials available ~7:00 AM ET and webcast at 8:30 AM ET. Shares are currently trading lower around $43.84, down ~3% from prior close $45.20, amid broader telecom pressure and recent reports of SpaceX discussions around large-scale cell site/tower commitments that could intensify competition. Latest quote ~$43.80-43.84 as of ~10:08-10:10 AM EDT (regular session). Partial: open ~$43.60, range ~$43.43-44.46. Recent completed closes show volatility (e.g., Oct 22 close 45.20 on high volume ~29M). Avg volume 20-30d in the mid-20M shares range implies avg dollar volume >$1B, far above $20M floor; market cap ~$182B. Anticipation of the Monday print is already influencing price alongside competitive news; relative volume elevated vs recent. Price path shows pre-event weakness, supporting further downside into the report rather than a sharp pre-event bid. Strongest counter-evidence is the high dividend yield and any potential for better-than-feared wireless metrics. Facts (scheduled earnings date confirmed via company release) vs inference (SpaceX news adding pressure). Invalidation would be a reclaim of $45.20 ahead of the open Monday or strong pre-announce commentary. Forecast modest further downside from current quote over the window.
    Return: -1.19%; alpha: 0.54%.
  4. BAH — confidence 70%. Booz Allen Hamilton reported Q2 FY2027 results before the open with adjusted EPS of $1.76 beating consensus ~$1.49, but revenue of ~$2.78B missing estimates amid civil business weakness and government contract delays; the company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance. Shares are trading lower around $74.86-75.79, down ~3.5-4.7% from prior levels, as the revenue miss and contract commentary outweighed the EPS beat. Latest quote ~$74.86 as of ~10:35 AM EDT (regular session, stockanalysis). Partial session showing downside. Recent avg volume ~1.63M shares implies avg dollar volume ~$120M+, above the $20M floor; market cap ~$9.0B. Price/volume response is negative on the mixed print, consistent with continuation of the initial selloff rather than immediate recovery. Strongest counter-evidence is the solid EPS beat, guidance raise, and backlog growth. Facts (EPS beat, revenue miss, civil weakness noted) vs inference (delays pressuring near-term sentiment). Invalidation would be a reclaim of the pre-report levels near $78-79 or positive contract update. Forecast further downside from current levels over the remaining window.
    Return: 11.96%; alpha: -12.60%.
  5. META — confidence 62%. Meta Platforms reported Q3 2026 results after the close on October 21 with strong revenue and EPS beats and raised AI capex guidance (lower end increased), plus plans for nonvoting shares; the stock sold off sharply on Thursday (~7%+) on AI spending and financing concerns and is trading modestly lower again today around $642-644, down from prior close near $648.85. Latest verifiable quote ~$644 as of ~10:10 AM EDT (regular session). Partial: open ~$638, range roughly $633-645. Recent completed sessions show the post-earnings decline; avg volume ~22M shares implies avg dollar volume well into the billions, far above floor; market cap ~$1.65T. Observed reaction to the earnings is already substantial (large prior-session drop), with today's action showing residual pressure rather than sharp recovery; volume not extreme relative to average. Strongest counter-evidence is the operational beat and advertising strength. Facts (reported beats + capex hike + share class plan) vs inference (ongoing AI spending skepticism in a weak tape). Invalidation would be a sustained move back above $650-655 or clearer return-on-capex commentary. Forecast modest additional downside from current levels over the window as sentiment lingers, distinguishing already-realized move from remaining forecast.
    Return: -0.30%; alpha: -0.35%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

Muse Spark 1.1: each pick's move beside SPY's

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S&P 500 -1.21% to 7663.43 and Nasdaq -2.6% Oct 22 worst since June on AI capex fears after Meta results, Dow flat +0.02%. Breadth 56% advancers despite index drop, defensive rotation to Food +3.91% and industrials. Earnings winners Roper +9.52% to $435.39, Allegion +9.46% to $174.04, Pool +14.36% to $197.21 outperformed on beats and raises. Oversold hardware/materials TTM Technologies -28.26% to $73.89 despite record quarter and Carpenter -20.62% to $292.26 on revenue miss washed out with 4x average volume. For next session, continuation in quality earnings beats and mean-reversion bounce in beaten names should outperform SPY.

  1. ROP — confidence 75%. Thesis: Top S&P gainer Oct 22 +9.52% to $435.39 on substantive Q3 beat. Fact: EPS $5.89 vs $5.79 consensus on $2.17B revenue before open Oct 22, free cash flow $447M +11%, raised FY outlook $22.15-22.30. Sentiment: market rewarded defensive software mix. Path: gap up from $397.56 close Oct 21 to intraday high $439.72 low $406.46 close $436.23, close near high within range. Completed daily history: session_date 2026-10-22 open null high 439.72 low 406.46 close 436.23 volume 1189074; 2026-10-21 close 397.56; earlier days null. Return_5d_pct 16.62% from finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 405242 shares source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rop/ US Eastern regular session 9:30-16:00 ET. Intraday at answering: latest_price 436.23 USD quote_time 2026-10-22T16:00:00-04:00 source https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rop/ type prior close regular-session. Reference_price consistent. Pre-event price $397.56 Oct 21 close, observed event-to-quote +9.73% (38.67). Partial session Oct 22 verified high $439.72 low $406.46. Catalyst already reflected ~9.5% but guidance raise not fully priced given BofA style upgrades in peers. Supports continuation: close near high, volume 404,862 vs avg 1,189,074 -66% suggests not climax. Counter-evidence: Nasdaq -2.6% AI rout, high multiple 18x P/E near 52-week high $483. Invalidation: future close below $397.56 prior close or FY guidance cut. Daily bars oldest to newest: 2026-10-16 null null null null null; 2026-10-19 null null null null null; 2026-10-20 null null null null null; 2026-10-21 null null null 397.56 null; 2026-10-22 null 439.72 406.46 436.23 1189074
    Return: 1.67%; alpha: 1.03%.
  2. ALLE — confidence 72%. Thesis: #2 S&P gainer Oct 22 +9.46% to $174.04 closing $176.52 on substantive beat and raise. Fact: Q3 EPS $2.60 vs $2.50 est +4% surprise, revenue beat, lifted full-year profit outlook, gapped from $159.00 close Oct 21 to $170.00 open Oct 22 last $169.74 on 280k shares, plus BofA upgrade to Buy $200 target from $164. Sentiment: security products defensive. Path: gap up open $170 high null low null close $176.52 near high. Completed daily history: 2026-10-22 open 170.0 high null low null close 176.52 volume 2100000; 2026-10-21 close 159.0; earlier null. Return_5d_pct 16.09% per finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 1000000 shares source https://finnhub.io US Eastern. Intraday at answering: latest_price 177.04 USD quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io type delayed regular-session, open 178.85 high 179.47 low 176.015 prev close 176.52. Reference_price 177.04 consistent. Pre-event $159.00, observed event-to-quote +11.33% to 177.04. Partial session Oct 23: open 178.85 high 179.47 low 176.015. Catalyst ~60% reflected but upgrade momentum supports continuation vs SPY. Counter-evidence: daily avg volume 332,315 vs 1M and 12-month +3.4% indicates longer downtrend. Invalidation: close below $159.00 gap base or outlook cut. Daily bars: 2026-10-16 null; 2026-10-19 null; 2026-10-20 null; 2026-10-21 null null null 159.0 null; 2026-10-22 170.0 null null 176.52 2100000
    Return: -0.25%; alpha: -0.89%.
  3. POOL — confidence 70%. Thesis: +14.36% to $197.21 Oct 22 rising from $172.44, 7 of last 10 days up +24.71% over 2 weeks, top US gainers list. Fact: Q3 2026 4% net sales growth to $1.5B reported Oct 22, driven by international, guidance reaffirmed. Sentiment: market rewarded despite flat earnings due to premium P/E and distribution strength. Path: intraday range $175.30-$197.36 +12.58% close near high. Completed daily history: 2026-10-22 close 197.21; 2026-10-21 close 172.44; earlier null. Return_5d_pct 24.39% per finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 261815 shares per intelligentinvestor source https://intelligentinvestor.com.au US Eastern. Intraday at answering: latest_price 196.685 USD quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io type delayed regular-session open 194.1 high 200.69 low 192.14 prev close 197.21. Reference_price 196.685 consistent. Pre-event $172.44, observed event-to-quote +14.06% to 196.685. Partial session Oct 23: open 194.1 high 200.69 low 192.14. Catalyst ~80% reflected but momentum and reaffirmed guidance support further vs SPY. Counter-evidence: YTD -14.02% 1-year -34.51% long downtrend, 52-week high $305.63. Invalidation: close below $172.44 pre-earnings close or guidance cut. Daily bars: 2026-10-16 null; 2026-10-19 null; 2026-10-20 null; 2026-10-21 null null null 172.44 null; 2026-10-22 null null null 197.21 null
    Return: -1.05%; alpha: -1.69%.
  4. TTMI — confidence 65%. Thesis: Oversold reversal after -28.26% to $73.89 Oct 22 volume 17,480,745 vs avg 3.7M. Fact: Q3 record results before open Oct 22 beat every line but supply chain wait 24 weeks drove data center division 10% below internal targets. Sentiment: AI hardware rout Nasdaq -2.6% worst since June amplified drop, stock already -67% from $223.83 high June 22. Path: gap down open 83.75 high 84.09 low 71.71 close 73.89 closing off low with long lower wick supports reversal not continuation. Completed daily history verified via stockwatch: 2026-10-20 open 96.3 high 99.81 low 94.0 close 95.51 volume 4207001; 2026-10-21 open 99.76 high 102.53 low 96.6726 close 102.15 volume 4570799; 2026-10-22 open 83.75 high 84.09 low 71.71 close 73.89 volume 17480745; earlier null. Return_5d_pct -23.79% per finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 3749757 shares source https://stockwatch.com US Eastern. Intraday at answering: latest_price 78.73 USD quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io type delayed regular-session open 75.15 high 79.098 low 73.5629 prev close 73.89. Reference_price 78.73 showing +6.55% bounce started. Pre-event close $102.15 Oct 21, observed event-to-quote -22.91% to 78.73. Partial session Oct 23: open 75.15 high 79.098 low 73.5629. Catalyst overreaction: record beat vs temporary supply delay suggests bounce vs SPY. Counter-evidence: 1-month -37.43% beta 2.23, sector pressure SNDK -8.47% AMD -8.08% same day. Invalidation: future close below $71.71 Oct 22 low or new delay beyond 24 weeks. Daily bars: 2026-10-16 null; 2026-10-19 null; 2026-10-20 96.3 99.81 94.0 95.51 4207001; 2026-10-21 99.76 102.53 96.6726 102.15 4570799; 2026-10-22 83.75 84.09 71.71 73.89 17480745
    Return: 10.93%; alpha: 10.29%.
  5. CRS — confidence 62%. Thesis: Washout reversal after -20.62% to $292.26 Oct 22 from $368.16 close Oct 21 gap open $330.00 volume 2.75M vs avg 694k. Fact: Q3 earnings Oct 22 revenue miss viewed as valuation concern given elevated P/E 34.65, though net margin 16.96% ROE 26.46% positive. Sentiment: elevated valuation $625.99 high July 6 now -53.31% below high indicates de-risking. Path: gap down close near low $292.26 low $284.56 high null open $330. Supports reversal attempt. Completed daily history: 2026-10-21 close 368.16; 2026-10-22 open 330.0 high null low 284.56 close 292.26 volume 2752129; earlier null. Return_5d_pct -24.6% per finnhub. High_20d null Low_20d null avg_volume_20d 694467 shares source https://finnhub.io US Eastern. Intraday at answering: latest_price 286.315 USD quote_time 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z source https://finnhub.io type delayed regular-session open 284 high 289.13 low 278.165 prev close 292.26. Reference_price 286.315 consistent. Pre-event $368.16, observed event-to-quote -22.23% to 286.315. Partial session Oct 23: open 284 high 289.13 low 278.165. Catalyst overreaction vs fundamentals suggests bounce vs SPY. Counter-evidence: 5-day -24.6% 1-month -27.52% 50-day $428.25 above price shows downtrend. Invalidation: close below $262.25 52-week low or further guidance cut. Daily bars: 2026-10-16 null; 2026-10-19 null; 2026-10-20 null; 2026-10-21 null null null 368.16 null; 2026-10-22 330.0 null 284.56 292.26 2752129
    Return: 2.03%; alpha: 1.39%.

Full prediction and audit record

DeepSeek

DeepSeek: each pick's move beside SPY's

View full picks and reasoning

The October 23 session is defined by two competing forces: a broad risk-off tone in technology and high-multiple names, and sharp single-stock reactions to earnings, analyst actions and the SpaceX cell-site story. Deckers and Norwegian Cruise Line face fresh company-specific headwinds, while Crown Castle, American Tower and Skydance carry positive catalysts that are still being digested. I expect dispersion to remain wide, with the strongest moves coming from names where the catalyst directly changes near-term expectations rather than merely reflecting sentiment.

  1. DECK — confidence 78%. Deckers lowered its full-year revenue outlook after reporting a rare sales miss in fiscal Q2, its first in at least five years, and Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Underweight with a $75 target. The catalyst is substantive and directly changes near-term business expectations, not just sentiment. The stock closed at $85.28 on October 22, near the lower end of its recent range, and is trading at $80.14 at 11:10 AM EDT on October 23, down 6.03%, confirming that sellers remain in control. Volume has been elevated, with 8.1 million shares traded on October 22 versus a 20-day average of roughly 2.9 million, which supports the view that institutional selling is driving the move rather than a thin-volume blip. The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock is already near its 52-week low of $77.20 and deeply oversold, so a sharp relief bounce is possible. Invalidation for the down thesis is a close above the October 22 high of $87.92, which would fill the earnings gap and signal that the downgrade has been absorbed. Price history: October 16–22 daily bars show a steady drift lower from $85.71 to $85.28, with a spike in volume on October 22. The 20-day high is $88.40 and the 20-day low is $77.20. The 5-day return is approximately -1.5% and the 20-day average volume is about 2.9 million shares.
    Return: 0.59%; alpha: -1.24%.
  2. CCI — confidence 74%. Crown Castle is surging on a Bloomberg report that SpaceX is in active discussions to secure access to roughly 80,000 U.S. cell sites, with Crown Castle identified as one of the tower operators in direct talks. The catalyst is event-driven and speculative because no definitive agreement has been signed, but it is substantive because a SpaceX national wireless buildout would materially increase tenant demand across Crown Castle's tower portfolio. The stock closed at $78.83 on October 22 and is trading at $86.74 at 11:13 AM EDT on October 23, up 10.03%, holding near its session high of $91.45. Volume is already 7.6 million shares versus a 20-day average of about 4.0 million, confirming genuine institutional participation. The main risk is headline reversal: if the SpaceX talks stall or another tower operator is chosen first, the event premium could compress quickly. A secondary risk is that REITs are sensitive to rates. Invalidation for the long thesis is a close back below the October 22 high of $80.40, which would erase the SpaceX gap. Price history: the stock had been range-bound between roughly $65 and $82 before the October 23 gap, and the 20-day high is $82.72 with a 20-day low of $65.32. The 5-day return is approximately +2.8% and the 20-day average volume is about 4.0 million shares.
    Return: 1.92%; alpha: 1.28%.
  3. AMT — confidence 70%. American Tower is the second liquid tower REIT benefiting from the same SpaceX cell-site story. The company operates roughly 41,764 sites across the U.S. and Canada, making it a natural counterparty for a nationwide SpaceX network even though Crown Castle has been more directly named in press reports. The stock closed at $181.57 on October 22 and is trading at $190.33 at 11:12 AM EDT on October 23, up 4.82%, after opening at $200.72 and pulling back. The catalyst is substantive but speculative in the sense that the SpaceX talks are not definitive. The main risk is that AMT reports Q3 earnings on October 27, so some investors may de-risk ahead of the print, and a denial of the SpaceX story could quickly erase the gain. Invalidation for the long thesis is a close back below the October 22 high of $182.78, which would erase the SpaceX gap. Price history: the stock had been consolidating between roughly $177 and $186 before the October 23 gap, and the 20-day high is $186.00 with a 20-day low of $160.30. The 5-day return is approximately +1.2% and the 20-day average volume is about 3.1 million shares.
    Return: 0.13%; alpha: -0.51%.
  4. SKYD — confidence 65%. Skydance was upgraded by JPMorgan to Neutral from Underweight, with the firm noting that the Warner acquisition creates a media company larger by revenue than Netflix and Disney excluding parks. The catalyst is an analyst action rather than a fundamental change, but it is substantive because it removes a persistent overhang and may prompt other sell-side revisions. The stock closed at $7.79 on October 22 and is trading at $7.82 at 11:13 AM EDT on October 23, up 0.39%, which is a muted reaction relative to the size of the upgrade. The main risk is that the stock is highly volatile and has repeatedly failed to hold rallies; it traded above $10 in early October before sliding to the current level. Invalidation for the up thesis is a close below the October 20 low of $6.87, which would signal that the upgrade has been fully faded. Price history: the stock has been in a downtrend from above $10 in early October to the current $7.80 area, with the 20-day high at $10.42 and the 20-day low at $6.61. The 5-day return is approximately +13% and the 20-day average volume is about 22.5 million shares.
    Return: -3.29%; alpha: -3.93%.
  5. NCLH — confidence 62%. Norwegian Cruise Line was downgraded by JPMorgan to Underweight from Neutral with a price target cut to $11 from $13, ahead of the Q3 report. The firm sees an inline quarter but downside risk to second-half 2027 net yield estimates. The catalyst is substantive because it directly lowers the earnings and valuation bar, and it comes just before the company reports. The stock closed at $15.54 on October 22 and is trading at $14.98 at 11:13 AM EDT on October 23, down 3.6%, confirming that sellers are acting on the downgrade. Volume is elevated at 9.4 million shares versus a 20-day average of about 17.6 million, though this is a partial session. The main risk is that the stock is already down sharply from its 2026 highs and could see a relief rally if the Q3 report beats the lowered bar. Invalidation for the down thesis is a close above the October 22 high of $15.80, which would signal that the downgrade has been absorbed. Price history: the stock has been trending lower from above $15.60 in mid-October to the current $15 area, with the 20-day high at $16.14 and the 20-day low at $14.17. The 5-day return is approximately -3.8% and the 20-day average volume is about 17.6 million shares.
    Return: 2.78%; alpha: -3.42%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Event Gaps: each model's average alpha vs SPY over SPY across its runs

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

ModelRunsAvg picks with positive alphaAvg alpha vs SPY
ChatGPT160.00%+0.50%
Gemini 1.5 Pro1353.85%+0.37%
Claude Opus 5.5646.67%+0.36%
Gemini 3.6 Flash160.00%+0.29%
Perplexity1949.47%+0.13%
Grok 4.51945.26%-0.02%
Muse Spark 1.12148.57%-0.08%
Grok 4140.00%-0.09%
GPT-61441.43%-0.15%
DeepSeek2150.71%-0.20%
Claude Opus 5140.00%-0.25%
Gemini 3 Pro656.67%-0.31%
Claude Sonnet 5.51038.00%-1.01%
GPT-5.6 Sol740.00%-1.42%
Meta AI - Muse Spark140.00%-1.84%
Grok 4.7120.00%-3.19%
Kimi120.00%-5.18%
View settlement prices
SymbolStartEndSourceNotes
ALLE178.98500000178.54000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALLE/history/
AMT190.51500000190.77000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMT/history/
AXP314.22790000315.34000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AXP/history/
BAH75.5700000084.60500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAH/history/
CCI86.9900000088.66000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/history/
CRS285.77000000291.58000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRS/history/
DECK80.0150000080.49000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DECK/history/
GGG67.4500000066.77000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GGG/history/
IBM251.59000000254.99500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBM/history/
LRCX230.68000000239.39500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX/history/
META646.54000000644.62500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history/
MRNA201.35020000197.51720000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/
NCLH14.9300000015.34500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NCLH/history/
POOL199.24500000197.16000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/POOL/history/
ROP437.04000000444.33500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ROP/history/
SKYD7.822000007.56500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SKYD/history/
SLB52.9200000051.89500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLB/history/
SPY762.24000000767.13000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
T21.4450000021.11000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/history/
TSLA375.72000000395.77000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/
TTMI78.5100000087.09000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTMI/history/
TXN283.34000000290.84000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXN/history/
VZ44.2600000043.73500000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VZ/history/
WDC352.62500000352.69000000https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDC/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v13, SHA-256 5334246f998818d66c9953737641ccf0c6eadc86e2119c50408951dac634a2d6. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.

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