Asked Oct 6, 10:48 AM EDT (morning session). Muse Spark 1.1, Perplexity, Gemini 1.5 Pro, GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Sonnet 5.5, DeepSeek and Grok 4.5 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 6, 10:48 AM EDT to Oct 7, 10:48 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Directional return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.73% | -0.74% | -0.73% |
| Perplexity | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.72% | -0.74% | 0.72% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 3/5 | 60.00% | -0.48% | -0.74% | -0.48% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.57% | -0.74% | 0.57% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.59% | -0.74% | -0.59% |
| DeepSeek | 3/5 | 60.00% | -0.39% | -0.74% | -0.39% |
| Grok 4.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.99% | -0.74% | 0.99% |
Muse Spark 1.1
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US market on Oct 6 2026 is risk-on with S&P +0.66% and 【entity-Nasdaq¦canonical_name=Nasdaq】 record. Top movers are dominated by Brazil fintech rebound on first-round election results favoring 【entity-Flavio Bolsonaro¦canonical_name=Flavio Bolsonaro】, and idiosyncratic biotech and PLM software squeezes. Extreme gains of 20-33% on high volume are largely news-driven and prone to intraday fade, suggesting reversal bias for winners and bounce bias for oversold losers.
- PTC down — confidence 68%. Ranked #1 gainer on Oct 6 2026 at +33.49% to $192.26 per weeklytrader.io scanner. Catalyst is substantive: PTC Inc PLM software buyout speculation and strong momentum, market cap ~$20.86B, price above $5, avg dollar volume >$200M. Current quote $192.26 is regular close Oct 5 basis per stockanalysis source, data_date 2026-10-06. Previous move is extreme and volume 29.5M is 20x normal, indicating blowoff. Expect reversal down next session.
Return: 0.47%; alpha: 0.27%. - XP down — confidence 65%. Ranked #2 gainer Oct 6 +30.93% to $28.15. Brazilian broker XP Inc benefited from same Brazil election first-round result lifting Brazilian financials, catalyst substantive but speculative macro. Market cap $14.29B as of Oct 5 close, price $28.15, avg volume 6.5M shares implies ~$182M dollar volume above $20M floor. Quote is close price. Extreme move likely to mean-revert after initial euphoria.
Return: 3.08%; alpha: -2.34%. - PCVX down — confidence 62%. Vaxcyte +30.70% to $73.82 on Oct 6, #3 gainer. Catalyst substantive: positive vaccine data and gapping on heavy call activity noted in market reports. Market cap ~$10.98B, price $73.82, volume 14.84M vs avg ~2.4M. Dollar volume 20-day average ~$175M. Previous close $56.48 to open $87 shows exhaustion. Expect reversal down as offering overhang noted.
Return: 0.67%; alpha: 0.08%. - PAGS down — confidence 70%. PagSeguro Digital +21.40% to $10.95 on Oct 6, top 5 gainer. Catalyst substantive: Brazil election first round with Flavio Bolsonaro 47.3% vs Lula 44.8% lifting Brazil fintech, reported by Fool. Market cap $3.02B per stockanalysis, price $10.95 above $5, avg vol 3.8M implies ~$42M dollar volume. Latest intraday quote $10.95 used as reference, data_date 2026-10-06. After 21% spike on 18M volume, short-term reversal expected despite positive macro.
Return: -0.19%; alpha: 0.93%. - SPHR up — confidence 64%. Top loser Oct 5-6 session: Sphere Entertainment -13.61% to $110.80. Catalyst substantive: downgrade from Craig-Hallum on Wizard of Oz 4D costs and soft outlook, market cap $3.957B per financecharts, price $110.80, avg dollar volume >$100M. Reference price is last close $110.80, data_date 2026-10-06. After sharp 5-day -24.89% drop, oversold bounce likely, so reversal up.
Return: 0.37%; alpha: 1.11%.
Perplexity
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US equities showed strong momentum on October 5, 2026, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high driven by AI and technology stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.66-0.7% as buyout announcements lifted sentiment. PTC surged 33.5% on a $205/share all-cash acquisition by Schneider Electric, while XP and PAGS rallied over 20% on Brazil election optimism. RXO jumped 22.5% on a C.H. Robinson acquisition deal. On the downside, SPHR fell 13.6% on a downgrade and CHRW dropped 10.9% as the acquirer of RXO. The market backdrop favors continuation in deal-driven movers and reversal in oversold names with stable fundamentals.
- PTC up — confidence 75%. PTC jumped 33.49% on October 5 after Schneider Electric announced an all-cash acquisition at $205/share, a 42% premium valuing equity at $22.6B. The stock closed at $192.26, still ~7% below the deal price, leaving room for convergence as regulatory approval progresses (expected Q3 2027). Market cap ~$20.9B, 20-day avg dollar volume ~$217M. Direction up, hypothesis continuation: the deal catalyst is substantive and arbitrage dynamics favor further upside toward $205. Risk: deal break or regulatory delay could reverse gains. Source: https://investor.ptc.com/resources/news/news-details/2026/Schneider-Electric-to-acquire-PTC-creating-the-next-level-of-Energy-and-Industrial-Intelligence/default.aspx
Return: 0.47%; alpha: 1.21%. - XP up — confidence 65%. XP Inc. surged 30.93% on October 5 to close at $28.15, driven by Brazil's first-round election results that boosted Brazilian equities. Market cap ~$14.3-14.8B, 20-day avg dollar volume ~$168M. Direction up, hypothesis continuation: Brazil macro tailwinds and financial sector strength support follow-through momentum. The move is substantive given XP's dominant position in Brazilian wealth management. Risk: Brazil political volatility or profit-taking after a 30% day. Latest intraday quote ~$29.23 (Oct 6 premarket). Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XP/
Return: 3.08%; alpha: 3.82%. - RXO up — confidence 70%. RXO jumped 22.54% on October 5 to $28.65 after C.H. Robinson agreed to acquire it for ~$30.25/share in cash-and-stock, implying $5.8B total value. Market cap ~$4.7B, 20-day avg dollar volume ~$41M. Direction up, hypothesis continuation: arbitrage spread to deal price (~5-6%) provides upside as deal progresses toward H1 2027 close. Catalyst is substantive M&A. Risk: regulatory or shareholder approval delays. Latest quote ~$28.65 (Oct 5 close). Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rxo/
Return: 0.00%; alpha: 0.74%. - SPHR up — confidence 60%. Sphere Entertainment fell 13.61% on October 5 to $110.80 after a Craig-Hallum downgrade to Hold citing softer demand trends. Market cap ~$4.0B, 20-day avg dollar volume ~$72M. Direction up, hypothesis reversal: the selloff appears overdone given Sphere's unique venue asset and improving content pipeline; technical oversold conditions favor a bounce. Catalyst is speculative (analyst opinion vs. fundamental deterioration). Risk: continued softness in attendance or spending. Latest quote ~$112.17 (Oct 6 intraday). Source: https://www.investing.com/equities/madison-square-garden
Return: 0.37%; alpha: 1.11%. - CHRW up — confidence 55%. C.H. Robinson dropped 10.85% on October 5 to $140.61 as the acquirer of RXO, with concerns about deal financing and integration. Market cap ~$16.4B, 20-day avg dollar volume well above $20M. Direction up, hypothesis reversal: the selloff is likely an overreaction given CHRW's strong franchise and the strategic logic of adding RXO's capabilities; valuation at ~27x P/E post-drop offers support. Catalyst is partly speculative (market anxiety vs. actual credit or operational stress). Risk: deal leverage concerns or freight market weakness. Latest quote ~$140.61 (Oct 5 close). Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHRW/
Return: -0.31%; alpha: 0.43%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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The US equity market exhibits robust, stock-specific reactions driven by M&A activities and analyst ratings, with the technology and utility sectors seeing substantial capital inflows despite broader macro rate concerns.
- PTC up — confidence 90%. PTC surged 33.5% in the source session following an acquisition agreement from Schneider Electric for $205 per share. Given the cash offer, the stock has reset near the deal price and is expected to hold these gains, implying continuation of the up move. 20-day average dollar volume estimated from 1.64M shares.
Return: 0.47%; alpha: 1.21%. - CHRW down — confidence 80%. C.H. Robinson fell 10.85% in the source session following the announcement of its acquisition of RXO. The market frequently penalizes acquirers due to integration risks. Early trading in the target session indicates further selling pressure, supporting a continuation hypothesis. 20-day average dollar volume could not be explicitly verified and was omitted.
Return: -0.31%; alpha: 1.05%. - SPHR down — confidence 75%. Sphere Entertainment recorded a sharp 13.6% drop in the source session driven by a downgrade from Craig-Hallum. The negative sentiment has persisted into the target session. We anticipate continuation of the downward momentum as investors exit. Average dollar volume estimated based on Morningstar's 656K shares average.
Return: 0.37%; alpha: 0.37%. - WDC down — confidence 70%. Western Digital posted a 6.3% gain in the source session, bouncing from Friday's lows. However, the stock gave back those gains sharply in the target session open, pointing to a reversal. Profit taking and semiconductor weakness are driving the downward pressure. 20-day average dollar volume could not be confirmed exactly and was omitted.
Return: -1.22%; alpha: 1.96%. - CEG up — confidence 85%. Constellation Energy closed up 3.29% in the source session and caught a massive pre-market bid in the target session, accelerating higher. The sustained upward momentum suggests strong continuation fueled by sector-wide tailwinds in utility stocks. Volume is calculated via 3.38M average shares.
Return: -4.05%; alpha: -3.30%.
GPT-5.6 Sol
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The October 5 source session produced unusually large event-driven moves, including takeover announcements, Brazilian political repricing, biotechnology trial news and company-specific downgrades. For the one-session horizon, the highest-conviction setups favor continuation where a durable valuation anchor or still-unresolved fundamental repricing exists, while PCVX is treated as a reversal candidate because its clinical-data surge showed substantial same-day selling from the high and was already retracing sharply before the prediction timestamp.
- PTC up — confidence 82%. PTC gained 33.49% in the October 5 source session after Schneider Electric agreed to acquire the company for $205 per share in cash. This is a substantive, legally announced M&A catalyst rather than speculative momentum. The $205 offer creates a valuation anchor above the latest verified intraday quote of $193.20 at 10:37:39 AM EDT on October 6, leaving a modest deal spread that can support further upside if investors continue to price a high probability of completion. The main risks are regulatory or financing concerns, deal-break probability and normal merger-arbitrage discounting. The 20-day average dollar volume was calculated from the verified daily close and volume history through the October 5 source session.
Return: 0.47%; alpha: 1.21%. - CHRW down — confidence 77%. CHRW fell 10.85% in the October 5 source session after announcing its $5.8 billion acquisition of RXO. The catalyst is substantive: the transaction includes cash and stock consideration and creates concerns about dilution, execution risk and the price being paid for a cyclical freight asset. The latest verified intraday quote was $134.93 at 10:37:41 AM EDT on October 6, already below the October 5 close, but the forecast classification remains continuation because it is judged strictly against the source-session decline. Continued selling is plausible while investors reassess leverage, integration risk and acquisition economics. The principal reversal risk is that investors focus instead on the projected $300 million of annual synergies and long-term scale benefits. The 20-day average dollar volume was calculated from verified daily close and volume history through October 5.
Return: -0.31%; alpha: 1.05%. - SPHR down — confidence 72%. SPHR was the largest verified decliner in the October 5 mover list, falling 13.61%. The decline followed concerns about cooling demand for the company's Sphere entertainment offering and an analyst downgrade, making the catalyst more substantive than a purely technical selloff, although the magnitude of the move also reflects sentiment and valuation compression. The latest verified intraday quote was $109.31 at 10:01 AM EDT on October 6, versus the $110.80 source-session close. I expect continuation lower because a demand-related reassessment can persist beyond one session, especially after a downgrade, but the stock is already heavily sold and therefore vulnerable to an oversold rebound. The 20-day average dollar volume was calculated from verified daily close and volume history through October 5.
Return: 0.37%; alpha: 0.37%. - PCVX down — confidence 69%. PCVX rose 30.70% in the October 5 source session after positive vaccine trial results. The clinical catalyst is substantive, but biotechnology trial reactions can overshoot because valuation depends on later-stage efficacy, regulatory progress, commercialization assumptions and interpretation of detailed data. PCVX opened the source session much higher and finished well below its intraday high, and the latest verified quote was $65.22 at 10:00:54 AM EDT on October 6, down sharply from the $73.82 source close. The forecast is therefore a reversal with direction down relative to the positive source-session move, not a continuation of the October 6 opening move. The main risk is renewed buying if investors conclude that the trial materially raises the probability of commercial success. The 20-day average dollar volume was calculated from verified daily close and volume history through October 5.
Return: 0.67%; alpha: 0.08%. - XP up — confidence 64%. XP gained 30.93% in the October 5 source session as Brazilian assets were sharply repriced after the first-round presidential election increased expectations of a more market-friendly policy outcome. The election result is substantive, but the resulting equity repricing remains partly speculative because it depends on the second-round outcome, subsequent fiscal policy and investor interpretation of Brazilian political risk. The latest verified intraday quote was $29.10 at 10:30:06 AM EDT on October 6, above the $28.15 source-session close. I favor continuation up because the move affected a broad group of Brazilian financial assets rather than XP alone, suggesting a macro risk-premium repricing that can persist for more than one session. The key risk is profit-taking after an exceptionally large one-day gain or any shift in election expectations. The 20-day average dollar volume was calculated from verified daily close and volume history through October 5.
Return: 3.08%; alpha: 3.82%.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
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Source session is Monday 2026-10-05. The large US-listed movers were driven by hard catalysts: the Schneider Electric all-cash buyout of PTC, the C.H. Robinson acquisition of RXO, positive Phase 3 data for Vaxcyte, and a Brazil-wide rally after the first-round presidential election, which lifted XP, Itau, Bradesco and Nu. The Nasdaq 100 closed at a record and the 10-year yield was about 5.3%. I did not obtain a verified live Oct 6 quote for any pick, so reference prices are the latest verified Oct 5 figures. A price is omitted wherever I could not confirm the regular-session close. Average dollar volume could not be verified for any pick, so that field is omitted everywhere. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) showed a roughly +105% gain on one screener, but that was a 2-for-1 split artifact (actual gain about +2.9%), so I excluded it.
- PTC up — confidence 58%. Substantive catalyst: Schneider Electric agreed to buy PTC for $205 per share in cash, a 42.3% premium, valued at about $22.6B with closing targeted for Q3 2027. The stock closed at $192.26 on Oct 5, about 6.6% below the offer, and a Yahoo Finance page showed it up about 0.5% in Oct 6 trading. Reversal is unlikely because the price is anchored to the deal. I expect continued merger-arbitrage drift higher, so this is a continuation with direction up, but the expected move is small. Risks: regulatory or shareholder-vote concerns, the Schneider equity issuance, and the long timeline. Reference price is the Oct 5 regular-session close, not a live Oct 6 quote. Market cap is the figure on the StockAnalysis gainers screen. I could not verify 20-day average dollar volume, so it is omitted.
Return: 0.47%; alpha: 1.21%. - CHRW down — confidence 50%. Substantive catalyst: C.H. Robinson agreed to a $5.8B cash-and-stock purchase of RXO, and CHRW fell about 10.8% on Oct 5 per a Trefis market-movers page (Benzinga midday showed about -14%). S&P reportedly revised its outlook to negative, and the shares also fell in Paris on the Schneider news. The stock was about $140 in premarket on Oct 5 per Investing.com. I expect acquirer-overhang drift lower, so this is a continuation with direction down. Risk: dip-buying after a roughly 11% one-day overshoot. I could not confirm the Oct 5 regular close, current market cap or 20-day average dollar volume, so reference_price, market_cap_usd and avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd are omitted. Market cap is very likely above $1B and the price far above $5, but those floors are unverified.
Return: -0.31%; alpha: 1.05%. - RXO down — confidence 48%. Substantive catalyst: C.H. Robinson will pay $17.25 in cash plus 0.0856 CHRW shares per RXO share, an implied $30.25 at announcement. RXO closed at $28.95 on Oct 5 after a gain of about 23.9% (Alphastreet). Part of the consideration is CHRW stock, and CHRW fell sharply after the announcement. I expect the deal spread to follow any further CHRW weakness, so this is a reversal with direction down, correlated with the CHRW pick. Risks: a competing bid, or a CHRW rebound that lifts RXO. Reference price is the Oct 5 close, not a live quote. Market cap is the StockAnalysis premarket-screen figure at about $28.93 and is stated as found. I could not verify 20-day average dollar volume, so it is omitted.
Return: 0.00%; alpha: 0.74%. - XP down — confidence 47%. Mostly speculative catalyst: Brazilian assets rallied after Flavio Bolsonaro finished about 2 points ahead of Lula in the first round (EWZ +13%, Ibovespa +8.6%). XP gained about 31% to $28.22 per Benzinga, which described it as a 52-week high. The runoff outcome is still uncertain and a single-day move of this size in a broker can mean-revert, so I take a reversal with direction down. Risks: momentum and continued foreign inflows into Brazil. The previous-session change is from Benzinga's roundup and varies between sources (about +31% to +34%). Reference price is from that article and may not be the exact close. Market cap is the StockAnalysis premarket-screen figure at about $26.38, before the further gain, and is stated as found. I could not verify 20-day average dollar volume, so it is omitted.
Return: 3.08%; alpha: -2.34%. - PCVX down — confidence 45%. Substantive catalyst: positive topline data from the pivotal OPUS-1 Phase 3 trial of VAX-31, with Guggenheim raising its target to $125. Short-interest-driven squeeze dynamics added to the move. Sources conflict on the size of the gain. Premarket and early reports showed about +50% to +56% (about $87.5 to $88), while a Trefis page showed a roughly +30.7% one-day return and CNBC midday said about +30%, which suggests an intraday fade. I use +30.7%, which is the more likely close-based figure but is not confirmed. I take a reversal with direction down, expecting profit-taking after a squeeze that has already faded. Risks: analyst upgrades and the large de-risking of a binary event. I could not confirm the Oct 5 regular close, so reference_price is omitted. Market cap is the StockAnalysis premarket figure at about $87.49 and is stated as found. I could not verify 20-day average dollar volume, so it is omitted.
Return: 0.67%; alpha: 0.08%.
DeepSeek
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US equities entered Tuesday, October 6, 2026, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq coming off record highs driven by broad participation. Monday's session featured a massive cash acquisition in software (Schneider Electric bidding for PTC), a $5.8B logistics merger (CHRW/RXO), Brazil election-driven rallies in Latin American assets, and analyst-driven rebounds in storage and genomics. The macro backdrop remains supportive but stretched: high Treasury yields and elevated oil prices are reigniting inflation concerns. For the next session, I favor continuation in names with substantive, verifiable catalysts (cash acquisition, index inclusion, analyst price-target hikes) and one reversal in a storage name where Monday's bounce is already fading on renewed competitive supply fears.
- ILMN up — confidence 78%. Illumina jumped 7.56% on Monday to $293.69 after RBC Capital raised its price target to $310 from $230, citing clinical sales inflection and positive pipeline catalysts. The stock is trading up another ~5% intraday on Tuesday near $308.47 (quoted 09:33 ET from a 鉅亨網 intraday report), continuing the momentum. The catalyst is substantive: a major analyst price-target hike backed by improving clinical-sequencing demand, not a speculative rumor. The main risk is that the stock is already within 0.5% of the $310 target, limiting upside, and any market-wide risk-off could reverse the move. Reference price is an intraday quote from October 6, not the Monday close. Market cap of $44.35B, average volume of ~2.54M shares, and a $293.69 Monday close imply a 20-day average dollar volume well above the $20M floor.
Return: -2.10%; alpha: -1.36%. - BBWI up — confidence 72%. Bath & Body Works surged 8.72% on Monday to $17.46 on heavy volume (12.4M shares vs ~2.64M average) as the average analyst price target reset roughly 10% higher to $27.62. The move lacked a single hard catalyst but reflected a sharp Wall Street re-rating after the company's Q2 beat and first direct-business sales growth since 2021. The stock is extending gains on Tuesday, trading at $17.88 (+2.41%) as of 10:36 AM EDT per Sina Finance. The catalyst is moderately substantive but partly speculative given the lack of new company news. The risk is that the rally fades without a fundamental follow-through, and the stock remains well below its 52-week high. Reference price is an intraday quote from October 6. Market cap of $3.52B and the $17.46 Monday close comfortably clear the price and market-cap floors.
Return: 2.35%; alpha: 3.09%. - WDC down — confidence 68%. Western Digital rose 6.34% on Monday to $441.64 as Morgan Stanley and other analysts urged investors to buy the dip after Friday's 10% selloff on Toshiba's plan to double HDD output. On Tuesday the stock is reversing lower, trading at $438.26 (-0.77%) per eToro, as the supply-side competitive concerns re-emerge and the rebound loses steam. The catalyst is substantive (analyst defense versus a real supply threat), but the reversal signal is clear: Monday's bounce was a one-day reaction, and the underlying margin-compression fear remains unresolved. Risk: the stock could regain footing if analysts reiterate buy ratings, making the reversal call wrong. Reference price is an intraday quote from October 6. Market cap is approximately $159B based on 同花顺 data, and average 20-day volume of ~8.5M shares implies a dollar volume far above the floor.
Return: -1.22%; alpha: 1.96%. - SPCX up — confidence 65%. SpaceX (SPCX) rallied 7.63% on Monday to $171.09 on massive volume of 134.7M shares, driven by a Google satellite launch aboard its rocket and continued Starship/AI-related investor enthusiasm. The stock is up another ~1.1% intraday on Tuesday near $173.03 per eToro, extending the move. The catalyst is a mix of substantive (actual satellite launch, revenue-generating launch cadence) and speculative (AI/space narrative), but the momentum and liquidity are undeniable. Risk: as a recently IPO'd name with a $2.32T market cap, it is highly sensitive to narrative shifts and could reverse sharply on profit-taking. Reference price is an intraday quote from October 6. The $171.09 Monday close and $2.32T market cap easily clear all floors.
Return: -3.91%; alpha: -3.17%. - PTC up — confidence 70%. PTC Inc. exploded 33.49% higher on Monday to $192.26 after Schneider Electric announced a definitive agreement to acquire the company for $205 per share in cash. The stock is trading essentially flat on Tuesday at $192.36 per Robinhood, leaving a ~6.6% gap to the deal price. The catalyst is highly substantive: a signed cash acquisition with a clear price, making the direction thesis (convergence toward $205) strong. The main risk is deal-break risk or regulatory delay, which would send the stock back toward its pre-deal level near $144. The market is pricing some deal uncertainty given the discount. Reference price is an intraday quote from October 6. Market cap is $20.86B and 20-day average volume of ~826K shares implies roughly $159M in daily dollar volume, well above the floor.
Return: 0.47%; alpha: 1.21%.
Grok 4.5
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Intraday session on 6 October shows sharp dispersion driven by deal news in healthcare and nuclear/power names on the upside and biotech/storage pressure on the downside. Liquidity remains adequate in the selected large- and mid-cap names; expect follow-through or mean-reversion into the next session close based on catalyst durability.
- OPCH up — confidence 72%. Option Care Health surged more than 32% on confirmed reports of a roughly $5.8 billion buyout by McKesson and CD&R. The move is substantive deal-driven rather than speculative; continuation into the next session is favored while the premium remains intact, though any deal uncertainty could trigger partial reversal. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -0.05%; alpha: 0.69%. - CEG up — confidence 68%. Constellation Energy advanced roughly 13% after news of a large multi-gigawatt power agreement with Google, lifting nuclear and independent power producer peers. The catalyst is substantive and sector-wide; continuation of the positive move is expected into the next close. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -4.05%; alpha: -3.30%. - LW up — confidence 65%. Lamb Weston rose about 10.6% after reporting a substantial earnings beat this morning. The move is results-driven and therefore more durable than pure momentum; continuation is the base case for the next session. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -0.57%; alpha: 0.17%. - TXG down — confidence 60%. 10x Genomics declined more than 12% intraday amid broader life-sciences tools weakness. No offsetting positive catalyst is evident; continuation of the decline into the next session close is favored. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -8.20%; alpha: 8.94%. - STX down — confidence 58%. Seagate fell roughly 7.7% after sector commentary around competitive AI-storage developments weighed on hard-drive names. The pressure appears sector-driven; continuation lower is the preferred stance for the next session. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -1.40%; alpha: 2.14%.
How models have done in Extreme Movers
ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg directions called correctly | Avg directional return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 5 | 60.00% | +1.48% |
| DeepSeek | 15 | 48.00% | +1.11% |
| Grok 4 | 2 | 50.00% | +0.31% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 2 | 60.00% | +0.31% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 6 | 60.00% | +0.03% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 14 | 40.00% | -0.24% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 3 | 33.33% | -0.24% |
| Grok 4.5 | 10 | 38.00% | -0.24% |
| Perplexity | 8 | 45.00% | -0.28% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 12 | 51.67% | -0.43% |
| GPT-6 | 4 | 45.00% | -2.68% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 9 | 44.44% | -3.32% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBWI | 17.89000000 | 18.31000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBWI/history/ | |
| CEG | 302.81000000 | 290.56000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG/history/ | |
| CHRW | 135.08500000 | 134.67000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHRW/history/ | |
| ILMN | 275.64500000 | 269.85000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ILMN/history/ | |
| LW | 49.23000000 | 48.95000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LW/history/ | |
| OPCH | 31.03500000 | 31.02000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPCH/history/ | |
| PAGS | 10.70500000 | 10.68500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAGS/history/ | |
| PCVX | 64.64000000 | 65.07000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PCVX/history/ | |
| PTC | 193.09000000 | 194.00000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PTC/history/ | |
| RXO | 28.43000000 | 28.43000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RXO/history/ | |
| SPCX | 174.85500000 | 168.02000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPCX/history/ | |
| SPHR | 105.06000000 | 105.45000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPHR/history/ | |
| SPY | 779.72500000 | 773.95000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| STX | 817.44000000 | 806.00000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STX/history/ | |
| TXG | 86.25000000 | 79.18000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXG/history/ | |
| WDC | 412.65000000 | 407.59900000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDC/history/ | |
| XP | 29.03000000 | 29.92500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XP/history/ |
Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11, SHA-256 3af677850f10ace4b097c4f6476bbed943db2a0a0ca861aa0c65ab83a22bccbd. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.
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