Oct 7, 2026 - 7 AI models call event-driven stocks in the morning session. 3 models beat SPY over the window

Asked Oct 7, 10:23 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-5.6 Sol, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Perplexity, Grok 4.5, Muse Spark 1.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 7, 10:23 AM EDT to Oct 8, 10:23 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Alpha vs SPY
GPT-5.6 Sol	0/5	0.00%	-2.92%	0.20%	-3.12%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	0/5	0.00%	-2.50%	0.20%	-2.69%
Perplexity	2/5	40.00%	0.94%	0.20%	0.74%
Grok 4.5	2/5	40.00%	1.07%	0.20%	0.87%
Muse Spark 1.1	1/5	20.00%	-1.96%	0.20%	-2.16%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	2/5	40.00%	-0.33%	0.20%	-0.53%
DeepSeek	2/5	40.00%	0.41%	0.20%	0.21%

GPT-5.6 Sol

View full picks and reasoning

The one-session setup is unusually event-driven, with several company-specific earnings catalysts occurring after the October 7 close or before the October 8 open. Broad-market conditions are less supportive than the prior session because oil and long-duration Treasury yields are elevated, increasing the risk that positive company news receives a muted valuation response. The selections therefore emphasize events with enough company-specific information content to overcome some of that macro noise. Expected moves are measured from the latest prices actually retrieved during this run, not from moves that occurred before the prediction window.

1. APLD — confidence 68%. Applied Digital has an officially scheduled fiscal Q1 2027 earnings call after the October 7 close, placing essentially the full post-earnings reaction inside the scoring window. The company is exposed directly to the AI-infrastructure buildout and recently announced additional capacity, while consensus expectations imply very rapid revenue growth but continued losses. That combination creates substantial event convexity: confirmation of deployment schedules, customer demand or financing progress could produce a strong upside response. The main risks are an earnings miss, construction or financing concerns, dilution, and exceptionally high beta. Emotional continuation risk is high because the stock is already heavily associated with the AI infrastructure theme and has a large short position, so either optimism or disappointment can become exaggerated. The latest quote I could verify was the October 7 pre-market price rather than a newer regular-session trade.
   Return: -1.56%; alpha: -1.75%.
2. LEVI — confidence 64%. Levi Strauss has an officially scheduled third-quarter earnings call after the October 7 close. Its previous quarter showed revenue growth, margin improvement and raised full-year guidance, creating a constructive fundamental setup if those trends persist. The stock's moderate valuation leaves room for an upside earnings repricing if direct-to-consumer growth and margins remain resilient. Risks include consumer weakness, tariff and sourcing costs, currency effects, or guidance that fails to satisfy expectations after the prior quarter's improvement. Emotional continuation risk is meaningful because a guidance raise could reinforce the turnaround narrative, while any reversal of prior momentum could trigger disproportionate disappointment. The latest price I could verify was an October 7 pre-market trade, not a newer intraday regular-session quote.
   Return: -5.38%; alpha: -5.57%.
3. PEP — confidence 65%. PepsiCo is officially scheduled to release third-quarter results at approximately 6:00 a.m. EDT on October 8, comfortably before the end of this prediction window. Reuters reported persistent pressure on North American snacks, weaker margins and increasing competitive and GLP-1-related demand concerns despite company efforts to cut prices and introduce more health-oriented products. Expectations call for revenue growth but essentially flat adjusted EPS, leaving the stock vulnerable if volumes, margins or forward commentary disappoint. The counter-risk is that depressed sentiment and a substantial year-to-date decline create scope for a relief rally on even modestly better results. Emotional continuation risk is therefore asymmetric: another weak operational signal could extend bearish sentiment quickly, while a credible stabilization narrative could cause a sharp reversal. The latest verified quote available in my lookup was an October 7 pre-market price.
   Return: 1.46%; alpha: -1.66%.
4. STZ — confidence 63%. Constellation Brands has already reported fiscal second-quarter results, so only movement after this forecast timestamp is being predicted. Reported EPS and sales beat expectations, but beer depletions fell 0.6%, the annual operating-margin outlook was reduced, and the stock initially traded about 4.5% lower in extended trading. Those details weaken the quality of the headline beat because shipment growth may have exceeded underlying consumer takeaway. I expect some negative price discovery to persist during the remainder of the window. The principal reversal risk is that investors focus instead on the EPS beat, 17% wine-and-spirits sales growth, the SpikedAde acquisition and the depressed valuation. Emotional continuation risk is elevated because the initial negative reaction can encourage momentum selling even though several reported headline figures were positive. The latest verified quote available in my lookup was an October 7 pre-market price.
   Return: 4.36%; alpha: -4.56%.
5. MRVL — confidence 61%. Marvell's October 6 Investor Day produced an unusually bullish long-term growth framework: management raised its fiscal 2028 revenue forecast to about $20 billion and projected fiscal 2031 revenue of $70-$90 billion, materially above prevailing estimates. The stock gained strongly on October 6 but was trading lower early on October 7, creating a potential second-day digestion and reversal opportunity as multiple analysts raised targets. I expect the fundamental magnitude of the new AI data-center outlook to support a rebound from the early pullback during the remaining window. The major risk is emotional continuation in the opposite direction: after a more than threefold year-to-date advance and a large first-day event gain, profit-taking and valuation compression could overwhelm further positive analyst reactions. The reference price is an actual October 7 regular-session quote retrieved at 9:45 a.m. EDT.
   Return: -1.85%; alpha: -2.05%.

Full prediction and audit record

Gemini 1.5 Pro

View full picks and reasoning

The broader market remains volatile with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to multi-year highs, placing pressure on equities. Investors are actively adjusting portfolios ahead of key Q3 corporate earnings and anticipating central bank minutes, leading to notable intraday swings in heavily traded consumer and industrial names.

1. STZ — confidence 75%. Constellation Brands reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results before the market open on October 7, beating earnings estimates. However, the market reaction has been muted due to concerns over elevated marketing spending and margin pressure from portfolio investments. The stock is expected to drift lower as investors digest these margin headwinds. Risks include an unexpected positive shift in consumer sentiment regarding their flagship beer brands.
   Return: 4.36%; alpha: -4.56%.
2. PEP — confidence 80%. PepsiCo is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 earnings on October 8 before the market opens. Anticipation of the report is creating downward pressure, as analysts have recently cut price targets due to weakening margins and slowing North American snack volumes. The stock is trading near its yearly lows, and continuation of this bearish sentiment is expected through the session. Risks include a short squeeze if early leaks or broad market rallies lift consumer staples.
   Return: 1.46%; alpha: -1.66%.
3. LW — confidence 70%. Lamb Weston reported Q1 2026 financial results on October 6, delivering an earnings beat that triggered an initial pre-market rally. The stock is experiencing continuation of this upside momentum today. Despite some analysts lowering their price targets post-earnings, the relief rally from deeply oversold levels appears robust. Risks to the upside thesis include profit-taking and broader market weakness dragging down mid-cap food stocks.
   Return: -1.32%; alpha: -1.51%.
4. LEVI — confidence 85%. Levi Strauss is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results after the market closes on October 7. Anticipation is high after the company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance previously. An expected beat driven by strong direct-to-consumer sales could propel the stock significantly higher during after-hours trading and into the next session. A key risk is that margin pressures from tariffs could disappoint investors despite a top-line beat.
   Return: -5.38%; alpha: -5.57%.
5. DAL — confidence 65%. Delta Air Lines saw its price target lowered by Susquehanna on October 7, just two days ahead of its Q3 earnings report scheduled for October 9. The downgrade is driving anticipatory de-risking among investors, placing downward pressure on the stock during the current session. Risks to the downside forecast include sudden declines in oil prices or broad market risk-on sentiment counteracting the downgrade.
   Return: -0.04%; alpha: -0.16%.

Full prediction and audit record

Perplexity

View full picks and reasoning

US equities are near record highs with earnings season beginning. Near-term moves are dominated by company-specific catalysts rather than macro. The window captures after-hours reactions to October 7 reports and premarket reactions to October 8 reports, with anticipation already pricing into today's session.

1. APLD — confidence 78%. Applied Digital reports Q1 FY2027 earnings after the close on October 7, 2026, with the call at 5 PM ET. The stock has rallied into the print on AI data-center hosting momentum, but consensus expects a loss and modest revenue. A beat on tenant fit-out revenue or updated backlog could drive a sharp gap up; a miss or cautious commentary on fit-out conversion risks a reversal. Reference price is a live intraday quote around $25.28 on October 7; prior close was $25.34. Market cap and 20-day volume clear the $1B and $20M thresholds.
   Return: -1.56%; alpha: -1.75%.
2. LEVI — confidence 72%. Levi Strauss reports Q3 FY2026 earnings after the close on October 7, 2026, with the call at 5 PM ET. Consensus is $0.36 EPS on $1.62B revenue. The company has beaten EPS for eleven straight quarters, but denim demand is the key read-through. A solid print with steady Americas commentary could extend gains; a miss or weak guidance risks a sharp drop. Reference price is the October 6 close of $20.53. Market cap and liquidity meet the required floors.
   Return: -5.38%; alpha: 5.18%.
3. PEP — confidence 68%. PepsiCo reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on October 8, 2026, with the call at 8:15 AM ET. Consensus is $2.30 EPS on $24.97B revenue. The stock has been under pressure from volume concerns and analyst downgrades, setting up for a volatile reaction. A volume stabilization or strong cost-savings update could drive a relief rally; continued North America weakness risks another leg down. Reference price is the October 6 close of $125.71. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume comfortably exceed the thresholds.
   Return: 1.46%; alpha: 1.27%.
4. DAL — confidence 64%. Delta Air Lines reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on October 9, 2026, with the call at 10 AM ET. While the print is outside the window, anticipation into the October 8 session can move shares, especially given strong travel demand and recent price strength. A pre-earnings drift higher is plausible on sector momentum; any cautious pre-announcements or macro jitters could cap gains. Reference price is the October 6 close of $83.66. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume meet the criteria.
   Return: -0.04%; alpha: -0.23%.
5. C — confidence 60%. Citigroup reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on October 13, 2026, with the call at 11 AM ET. The event is later in the week, but bank stocks are sensitive to early commentary and positioning into earnings. With the stock up sharply year-to-date and trading near recent highs, pre-earnings volatility is elevated. A continued grind higher into the print is possible on sector strength; profit-taking or credit concerns could reverse it. Reference price is the October 6 close of $128.52. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume exceed the required floors.
   Return: 0.56%; alpha: -0.76%.

Full prediction and audit record

Grok 4.5

View full picks and reasoning

Market is consolidating after record highs amid rising yields and oil prices, with focus on Fed minutes and early Q3 earnings. High-beta AI infrastructure and consumer names with post-close or pre-open reports are poised for sharp moves within the one-session window via anticipation and reaction.

1. APLD — confidence 68%. Applied Digital reports Q1 FY2027 results after the close today. Options imply roughly 12% move; historical average exceeds 15%. Strong AI data-center demand and recent capacity expansions support upside bias if guidance confirms lease backlog growth. Risks include elevated short interest, high beta, and potential miss on profitability metrics that could trigger sharp downside. Reference price is live intraday quote.
   Return: -1.56%; alpha: -1.75%.
2. LEVI — confidence 62%. Levi Strauss reports Q3 2026 earnings after the close today. Options price ~9-10% move. Soft consumer spending and apparel inventory concerns create downside risk if margins or guidance disappoint; prior quarters showed mixed DTC progress. Upside possible on beat but emotional continuation of recent weakness favors lower prices into the next session. Reference price is live intraday quote.
   Return: -5.38%; alpha: 5.18%.
3. PEP — confidence 58%. PepsiCo reports Q3 2026 results before the open on Oct 8. Options imply ~3.8% move; historical average near 3%. Stable consumer-staples profile with expected modest growth supports mild upside if North America volumes stabilize, though elevated valuations and recent share pressure limit magnitude. Anticipation builds into the close today. Reference price is live intraday quote.
   Return: 1.46%; alpha: 1.27%.
4. DAL — confidence 55%. Delta Air Lines reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on Oct 9. Options imply ~6-7% move. Strong travel demand and capacity discipline support upside bias into the report; fuel costs and macro risks are headwinds. Anticipation of solid results can drive the stock higher within the one-day window. Reference price is live intraday quote.
   Return: -0.04%; alpha: -0.23%.
5. OPCH — confidence 60%. Option Care Health surged on Oct 6 after reports of a pending acquisition by McKesson and CD&R valued above $5B. Deal confirmation or further details can drive additional upside; failure or renegotiation risks a sharp reversal. High volume and elevated price after the initial pop create continuation potential within the window. Reference price is live intraday quote.
   Return: 0.08%; alpha: -0.12%.

Full prediction and audit record

Muse Spark 1.1

View full picks and reasoning

Market is in early Q3 earnings season with mega-cap consumer staples and travel names as key reads. October 7-8 window is dominated by scheduled earnings: Applied Digital after close Oct 7, and 【entity-PepsiCo¦canonical_name=PepsiCo】, Levi Strauss, 【entity-Delta Air Lines¦canonical_name=Delta Air Lines】 before open Oct 8, plus Constellation Brands which reported Oct 6 after close with call Oct 7 morning. Volatility should be driven by guidance and AI infrastructure demand commentary rather than macro.

1. APLD — confidence 72%. APLD reports Q1 FY2027 after close Oct 7 at 5pm ET. Consensus EPS -$0.31 on $137.6M revenue vs last quarter $0.04 adjusted. Stock is down into print with high beta and heavy AI data-center expectations. Recent price 24.11 intraday Oct 7. Anticipation of hyperscaler lease updates could move stock in regular session Oct 8 even before full reaction. If revenue beats and management confirms 200MW+ contracted, squeeze up. Risk: high short interest and dilution history cause sharp reversal if guidance weak.
   Return: -1.56%; alpha: -1.75%.
2. PEP — confidence 68%. PEP reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 8 at 6am ET, call 8:15am ET. Consensus EPS $2.30 revenue $24.97B. Stock near 52-week low 125.16 after downgrades from 【entity-JPMorgan¦canonical_name=JPMorgan】/Deutsche citing Frito-Lay North America weakness. Market expects soft volume. Any upside on organic growth or margin improvement and reaffirmed FY guidance 8.55-8.71 EPS could spark mean reversion. Price $124.575 recent intraday. Downside risk limited after -18% 6-month decline; bear case is further North America volume miss.
   Return: 1.46%; alpha: 1.27%.
3. LEVI — confidence 65%. LEVI reports Q3 2026 after close Oct 7, consensus $0.3584 EPS revenue $1.618B, FY guidance 1.46-1.52. Last quarter beat by 16.67% but stock dropped. Apparel demand and DTC trends key. Market cap 7.65B, price $19.81 intraday, volume 2.65M avg >$52M dollar volume meets floors. With print occurring within window, regular session Oct 8 will price reaction. Expect up if gross margin holds despite wholesale softness. Risk: consumer slowdown commentary could pressure down.
   Return: -5.38%; alpha: -5.57%.
4. DAL — confidence 62%. DAL estimated earnings Oct 8, 2026 before open, Q3 consensus ~$1.93-1.96 EPS. Peer airlines reported late July strength, but fuel and corporate demand remain swing factors. Market cap $55.3B price $82.81. High dollar volume ~$700M meets floor. Stock up 19% YTD into print, elevated expectations. Anticipation of travel demand and Q4 guidance will drive Oct 7-8 trading. Down call reflects risk of unit revenue miss and conservative Q4 outlook after recent rally.
   Return: -0.04%; alpha: -0.16%.
5. STZ — confidence 60%. STZ reported Q2 2027 Oct 6 after close: EPS $3.74 beat $3.55 estimate by $0.19, revenue $2.54B est, updated FY guidance 11.20-11.90. Call was Oct 7 8:00 AM ET, just before prediction time. Stock $115.085 intraday, market cap $19B, dollar volume ~240M meets floor. Post-earnings drift and analyst revisions will play out Oct 7-8 regular session. Beer depletions soft but wine/spirits cost control helped. Expect continuation down if guidance midpoint viewed as conservative and beer volume declines persist.
   Return: 4.36%; alpha: -4.56%.

Full prediction and audit record

Claude Sonnet 5.5

View full picks and reasoning

This is a thin-evidence, event-driven book built on a 13-minute research budget. Only two catalysts fall inside the window: LEVI's scheduled after-close print on Oct 7 and PEP's scheduled pre-market print on Oct 8. The other three are anticipation or post-event continuation plays (APLD, DAL, PENG). Most price quotes were undated page snapshots, so reference prices and liquidity figures are approximate and flagged per pick. Overall risk is that a single broad-market move dominates single-name event effects over one session.

1. PEP — confidence 55%. Observed: PepsiCo reported on Jul 9, 2026, missed expectations but reaffirmed guidance, and the stock has drifted about +2.7% since. Scheduled: Q3 results on Oct 8 before the open (about 6:00 AM ET) with consensus EPS of about $2.31 and revenue of about $24.97B, so the event lands inside the window. Options imply about a 4.5% move (another source says 3.9%). Thesis: a low bar after the prior miss, a steady guide and a 3.5%+ yield favor a modest relief move up. Risks: a volume or margin miss, or a guidance trim, would reverse it, and one source lists the date as Oct 13, so the timing is not fully confirmed. Price is a pre-market or last-seen quote of about $140.79 from a page whose date I could not confirm. Dollar volume is estimated from a single-day volume of about 5.5M shares times price, not a true 20-day average.
   Return: 1.46%; alpha: 1.27%.
2. LEVI — confidence 50%. Scheduled: Q3 results on Oct 7 after the close (about 4:10 PM ET), with consensus EPS of about $0.36 and revenue of about $1.61B. Options imply about a 9.6% move, and the average absolute day-after move is about 8.8%. Observed: shares are about -10% since the Jul 8 report, which delivered a beat-and-raise but in-line earnings, so expectations have been reset lower into the print. Anticipation in the afternoon session can also move the stock before the release. Thesis: a depressed pre-print setup and a tariff-offset pricing narrative favor a modest upside skew, but the sign is close to a coin flip, and a Oct 2025 beat still produced a -12.6% reaction. Price of about $21.06 is from an earnings-preview page with no confirmed quote date. I could not verify 20-day average dollar volume, so that field is null rather than guessed; the liquidity floor is therefore not confirmed. Market cap of about $8.1B comes from an earnings calendar.
   Return: -5.38%; alpha: -5.57%.
3. PENG — confidence 45%. Observed: Penguin Solutions was listed to report on Oct 6 after the close with an options-implied move of about 20%, and the stock is shown at about $47.07, down 10.33% on the day. I could not confirm the quote date or the content of the report, so this may or may not be the post-earnings reaction. Thesis: if that gap is real, high-beta (about 2.8) small-cap tech with a large implied move tends to show negative follow-through after a post-earnings drop, so I lean down for continuation. Risks: a rebound bounce, a short squeeze, or a quote that predates earnings. Market cap of about $3.4B and average volume of about 3.94M shares (times price, roughly $185M) are approximate and derived. Reference price is not date-verified.
   Return: -3.86%; alpha: 3.66%.
4. APLD — confidence 40%. Anticipated, not confirmed: Applied Digital's next earnings date is shown as Oct 8 after the close on one calendar, Oct 12 after the close (4:05 PM ET) on another, and Oct 14 on a third, so the date is uncertain and may fall after the window. Thesis: the stock is a high-beta AI data-center name (beta about 3.2) with about 25% of float short, trading well below its May high and below its 50- and 200-day averages, so pre-earnings positioning and short covering could lift it within the session. Risks: sector or market selloff, since the move may be driven by AI-infrastructure sentiment rather than the event. Price of about $26.37 is an undated quote. Market cap of about $7.6B is from a calendar, and dollar volume is estimated from a 30-day average volume of about 19.2M shares times price.
   Return: -1.56%; alpha: -1.75%.
5. DAL — confidence 40%. Anticipated: Delta's Q3 2026 results are scheduled for Oct 9 before the open per one earnings page (another says Oct 12), outside the window, with consensus EPS of about $2.03 to $2.05. Observed: shares drifted about -8.8% after the Jul 10 beat-and-raise report, and trade near $80. Thesis: anticipation of the airline reporting season and a beaten-down setup after a guide above estimates could produce a modest pre-earnings bid, but the expected move is small because the event is after the window. Risks: fuel prices, macro or consumer demand news, and the date conflict. Price of about $80.17 is an undated quote. Market cap of about $52.7B is from a calendar, and dollar volume is estimated from a single-day volume of about 8.3M shares times price.
   Return: -0.04%; alpha: -0.23%.

Full prediction and audit record

DeepSeek

View full picks and reasoning

US equities are in a seasonally strong period but the near-term focus is on a handful of Q3 earnings reports and an index rebalance. Levi Strauss and Applied Digital report after the close on 7 October, PepsiCo reports before the open on 8 October, and Moderna's Nasdaq-100 inclusion is effective before the open on 9 October. These events create idiosyncratic gap opportunities that are largely uncorrelated with the broader market. I expect the reaction to be most pronounced in LEVI and APLD, where the after-hours move will set the tone for the following session. PEP faces a low bar but remains vulnerable to a guidance disappointment. MRNA's index-driven demand is likely to persist through the window, while STZ is digesting a pre-market report and may see follow-through selling.

1. LEVI — confidence 65%. Levi Strauss reports fiscal Q3 2026 results after the close on 7 October. Consensus EPS is $0.36 on revenue of roughly $1.62 billion. The stock has been pressured by weak discretionary apparel spending, and a miss or cautious guidance could trigger a gap down. The after-hours reaction will be the primary driver for the 8 October session. The main risk is that the report beats and the stock rallies, forcing a short squeeze. The reference price is the most recent regular-session close from 7 October.
   Return: -5.38%; alpha: 5.18%.
2. APLD — confidence 60%. Applied Digital reports fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close on 7 October. Consensus EPS is -$0.31. The company is a high-beta data-center infrastructure play with a history of large post-earnings moves. The after-hours reaction will determine the direction for the 8 October session. I expect an upside surprise given the strong AI infrastructure spending environment. The primary risk is that the loss is wider than expected or guidance disappoints, leading to a sharp sell-off. The reference price is the latest intraday quote from 7 October.
   Return: -1.56%; alpha: -1.75%.
3. PEP — confidence 55%. PepsiCo reports Q3 2026 earnings before the market opens on 8 October. Consensus EPS is $2.30 on revenue of approximately $24.97 billion. The stock has declined about 10% year-to-date amid persistent North America weakness, and options are pricing a roughly 3.75% move. A cautious outlook or another quarter of weak organic growth could push the stock lower. The main risk is a better-than-feared report that sparks a relief rally. The reference price is the latest intraday quote from 7 October.
   Return: 1.46%; alpha: -1.66%.
4. MRNA — confidence 60%. Moderna is set to join the Nasdaq-100 Index before the market open on 9 October, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery. The inclusion is officially scheduled and will force index-tracking funds to buy the stock. Anticipation of this passive demand is likely to support the stock through the 7-8 October window. The main risk is that the stock has already rallied sharply on the announcement and could see profit-taking, especially after Citi warned of a sell-the-news reaction. The reference price is the most recent regular-session close from 6 October.
   Return: 4.04%; alpha: 3.85%.
5. STZ — confidence 50%. Constellation Brands released Q2 2027 earnings before the market opened on 7 October. The company beat revenue expectations but guidance concerns pressured the stock in pre-market trading. The event has already occurred, and the market is now digesting the report. Follow-through selling is possible as investors assess the outlook for beer and spirits demand. The main risk is a sharp intraday reversal if the initial negative reaction is overdone. The reference price is the latest intraday quote from 7 October.
   Return: 4.36%; alpha: -4.56%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg picks with positive alpha	Avg alpha vs SPY
Claude Opus 5.5	3	53.33%	+0.85%
Grok 4.5	9	46.67%	+0.69%
DeepSeek	10	56.50%	+0.53%
ChatGPT	1	60.00%	+0.50%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	9	48.89%	+0.14%
Perplexity	8	40.00%	+0.06%
Claude Opus 5	1	40.00%	-0.25%
Gemini 3 Pro	1	40.00%	-0.27%
Muse Spark 1.1	10	48.00%	-0.37%
GPT-6	2	30.00%	-0.69%
GPT-5.6 Sol	7	40.00%	-1.42%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	6	33.33%	-1.42%
Kimi	1	20.00%	-5.18%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
APLD	24.10500000	23.73000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APLD/history/
C	125.82000000	126.53000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/C/history/
DAL	82.81000000	82.78000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DAL/history/
LEVI	19.90500000	18.83500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LEVI/history/
LW	49.03500000	48.39000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LW/history/
MRNA	188.01000000	195.61500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/
MRVL	283.44260000	278.20000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRVL/history/
OPCH	31.02500000	31.05000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OPCH/history/
PENG	75.27790000	72.37500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PENG/history/
PEP	124.57500000	126.40000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PEP/history/
SPY	774.73500000	776.27000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
STZ	115.96500000	121.02500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STZ/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v12, SHA-256 742a86a2bd73a603f092e6f430635650ba1da08cfcdddda4912c9711b13137e8. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.