Oct 9, 2026 - 7 AI models call the biggest movers in the morning session. 4 models finished positive

Asked Oct 9, 10:12 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-6, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Perplexity, Grok 4.5, Claude Sonnet 5.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 9, 10:12 AM EDT to Oct 12, 10:12 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Directional return
GPT-6	2/5	40.00%	-0.51%	0.22%	-0.51%
Muse Spark 1.1	3/5	60.00%	0.31%	0.22%	0.31%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	2/5	40.00%	-0.95%	0.22%	-0.95%
Perplexity	0/5	0.00%	-2.12%	0.22%	-2.12%
Grok 4.5	3/5	60.00%	0.44%	0.22%	0.44%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	3/5	60.00%	0.45%	0.22%	0.45%
DeepSeek	3/5	60.00%	0.92%	0.22%	0.92%

GPT-6

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Cautious and highly selective. The October 8, 2026 source session saw the Nasdaq decline approximately 1.3%, with pressure on AI infrastructure, optical networking, biotechnology, and cryptocurrency-sensitive equities. Higher Treasury yields, elevated oil prices, and concerns about AI investment returns weakened risk appetite. Five liquid, US-listed common stocks are selected from the previous session's leading gainers and losers. HAE has the strongest substantive positive catalyst, while ARGX faces confirmed clinical disappointment. AAOI and HUT offer potential oversold rebounds, whereas COCO's sharp recovery appears vulnerable to profit-taking. Rankings emphasize catalyst quality, expected next-session directional return, liquidity, and reversal risk rather than simply selecting the largest percentage moves. All five latest available quotes are from October 9, 2026, between 09:35 and 10:05 EDT. Exact 20-session average daily dollar volumes were not independently established. Published 20-day average share volumes and price histories suggest that all five comfortably exceed the $20 million liquidity floor, but the exact dollar-volume screening values remain unverified. The primary evaluation metric is the mean signed next-session return, with positive signs for predicted increases and negative signs for predicted decreases. Directional accuracy is the fraction of the five forecasts whose predicted directions are correct. Neither metric can be calculated before the forecast window closes. No future price information is used.

1. HAE up — confidence 72%. Rank 1: Haemonetics gained 17.46% during the October 8 regular session, closing at $119.47 from $101.71. The catalyst is substantive: CSL Plasma confirmed plans to transition its existing US plasma collection centers to Haemonetics equipment, expanding the commercial opportunity under an existing supply relationship. The announcement supports a potentially material increase in recurring equipment and consumables revenue. Multiple analysts subsequently raised price targets, including BofA, Mizuho, and Barrington to $140. This follow-through strengthens the fundamental explanation for the move. The hypothesis is continuation because institutional analysts are incorporating the expanded agreement into future revenue estimates. Risks include substantial gains already reflected in the share price, an RSI above 76, uncertain implementation timing, and profit-taking following the initial repricing. The latest verified intraday quote is $119.86 at 10:05 EDT on October 9, approximately seven minutes before the prediction timestamp. Published 20-day average share volume is 638,014, supporting substantial liquidity, but exact 20-day average daily dollar volume was not independently verified. The displayed market capitalization is a current quote-page figure rather than an independently reconstructed October 8 closing valuation. Sources: StockAnalysis for live price, market capitalization, historical returns, and average share volume; Barron's and company-related disclosures for the substantive CSL agreement.
   Return: 0.45%; alpha: 0.23%.
2. ARGX down — confidence 67%. Rank 2: Argenx declined 11.83% on October 8, closing at $818.63 from $928.44. The substantive negative catalyst was discontinuation of the Phase 3 UNITY study evaluating Vyvgart in Sjogren's disease. Terminating a late-stage clinical program reduces the expected value of a potential commercial indication and creates uncertainty around the breadth of the company's autoimmune pipeline. Morgan Stanley subsequently reduced its price target from $1,250 to $1,140 while maintaining an Overweight rating, illustrating the distinction between a negative near-term development and the company's continuing commercial value. The hypothesis is continuation downward because institutional portfolio adjustments and reassessment of the clinical pipeline may persist beyond the announcement session. Risks include an oversold technical condition, the company's existing commercial franchise, a substantial cash position, and bargain buying after the double-digit decline. The latest verified intraday quote is $812.58 at 09:56 EDT on October 9, approximately 17 minutes before the prediction timestamp. Published 20-day average share volume is 381,122. Exact 20-day average dollar volume was not verified. The market capitalization is the quote-page estimate rather than a separately established October 8 close figure. Sources: StockAnalysis for US-listed ARGX prices and market statistics, and Investors Business Daily for the clinical catalyst.
   Return: 1.30%; alpha: -1.52%.
3. AAOI up — confidence 62%. Rank 3: Applied Optoelectronics fell 13.58% during the October 8 regular session, closing at $105.90 from $122.54. The decline coincided with broad weakness among optical networking and AI infrastructure suppliers. The company had experienced a substantial prior rally, making it particularly sensitive to concerns about AI infrastructure spending and sector valuations. The company also announced completion of a previously disclosed at-the-market equity offering on October 5. That announcement is verifiable, but a direct causal relationship between the offering completion and the October 8 decline has not been established. The October 8 move therefore appears predominantly sector-driven and positioning-related rather than attributable to a newly confirmed deterioration in operating fundamentals. The prediction is reversal upward because the selloff may have overshot near-term fundamental implications. A positive opening indication on October 9 is contextual evidence only and is not used to classify the hypothesis. Risks include continuing AI sector deleveraging, additional valuation compression, high volatility, and continued selling by momentum-oriented investors. The latest verified intraday quote is $109.25 at 09:56 EDT on October 9, approximately 17 minutes before prediction. Published 20-day average share volume is 8,401,838, but exact 20-day average dollar volume was not established. The displayed market capitalization is from the current quote page, not a reconstructed October 8 close. Sources: StockAnalysis for trading data and corporate announcements; Reuters for broader AI-related market pressure.
   Return: -7.16%; alpha: -7.38%.
4. HUT up — confidence 60%. Rank 4: Hut 8 declined 10.87% on October 8, closing at $79.59 from $89.30. The stock was among the major losers in a session characterized by falling cryptocurrency prices, rising Treasury yields, and broad pressure on speculative technology investments. Other cryptocurrency-related equities also experienced substantial declines. The primary catalyst is therefore broad risk reduction rather than a separately confirmed negative company-specific operating announcement. Hut 8 also announced the scheduling of its third-quarter earnings release, but that routine announcement is not evidence of operational deterioration. The hypothesis is an upward reversal because the combination of cryptocurrency sensitivity, substantial share-price volatility, and heavy selling can produce sharp short-term recoveries when selling pressure moderates. The prediction does not treat the positive October 9 opening indication as continuation; continuation and reversal are defined exclusively relative to the negative October 8 return. Risks include further Bitcoin weakness, funding concerns surrounding capital-intensive digital infrastructure development, high financial leverage, and renewed technology-sector selling. The latest verified intraday quote is $80.19 at 10:04 EDT on October 9, approximately nine minutes before the prediction timestamp. Published 20-day average share volume is 4,804,992, although exact 20-day average daily dollar volume remains unverified. The market capitalization is a current quote-page estimate rather than a separately calculated October 8 closing value. Sources: StockAnalysis for share prices and company information; contemporaneous market reporting for cryptocurrency-related weakness.
   Return: 6.64%; alpha: 6.42%.
5. COCO down — confidence 57%. Rank 5: Vita Coco advanced 10.52% on October 8, closing at $55.98 from $50.65. The move followed a 7.03% decline on October 7 and represented a substantial recovery within two trading sessions. No definitive company-specific announcement explaining the October 8 rally was established. Oppenheimer initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $70 price target earlier in October, but this does not establish causation for the October 8 move. BofA subsequently reduced its price target from $85 to $72 while maintaining a Buy recommendation, illustrating continuing valuation uncertainty. The catalyst classification is therefore speculative or positioning-driven rather than an established fundamental event. The hypothesis is a downward reversal because the rapid recovery may invite profit-taking, particularly after the stock rebounded sharply without an independently confirmed new fundamental catalyst. Risks include sustained institutional demand, supportive beverage-category fundamentals, and a continued rebound following the preceding decline. The latest verified intraday quote is $55.55 at 09:35 EDT on October 9, approximately 38 minutes before prediction. This is a less fresh quote than those used for the other four selections. Published 20-day average share volume is 1,384,605, but the exact average daily dollar volume was not independently calculated. The displayed capitalization is a current quote-page value, not a separately verified October 8 close figure. Sources: StockAnalysis for price history, capitalization, analyst commentary, and trading statistics.
   Return: 1.20%; alpha: -1.42%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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S&P 500 -0.47% and 【entity-Nasdaq¦canonical_name=Nasdaq】 -1.25% on Oct 8 after 【entity-Financial Times¦canonical_name=Financial Times】 reported OpenAI annualized revenue $20B below $70B consensus, hitting AI capex complex (NVDA -2.94%, AVGO -4.35%, ORCL -5.48%). Energy +2.97% on Brent spike to $103.92 from Hormuz tanker attacks and Hurricane Isaias Gulf shut-ins. Breadth favored large-cap defensive and oversold tech bounce potential into Oct 9 Michigan sentiment and DAL earnings. Expect mean-reversion in optical/semiconductor losers and momentum continuation in idiosyncratic winners with substantive catalysts.

1. HAE up — confidence 78%. Ranked #1 gainer Oct 8 +17.46% to $119.47 close on substantive catalyst: CSL expects to deploy Haemonetics NexSys PCS devices across all US plasma centers under existing supply agreement, per Swingfolio. Source confirms price, change, volume 2.77M vs avg 715k. Reference price is live intraday Oct 9 $119.825 from Finnhub quote, slight stale <2hrs. Market cap ~$5.44B passes $1B floor. 20d dollar volume ~ $85M (715k * $119) passes $20M. Continuation thesis: contract rollout validation drives further institutional buying; risk is profit-taking after 105% 6-month run.
   Return: 0.45%; alpha: 0.23%.
2. CSGP up — confidence 65%. Ranked #5 gainer Oct 8 +8.01% to $29.81 close. Listed in top gainers table above $2B market cap filter. No company-specific news, described as flow-driven in roundup, speculative catalyst. However price >$5, market cap $12.08B per stockanalysis, passes. Avg volume 9.47M * $29.81 = ~$282M dollar volume. Reference price current $29.95 intraday Oct 9 from Finnhub. Continuation up expected as oversold bounce (YTD -55%) may persist short-term; risk is broader tech weakness and lack of catalyst leads to fade.
   Return: -2.37%; alpha: -2.59%.
3. AAOI down — confidence 70%. Ranked #1 loser Oct 8 -13.58% to $105.90 close on sector-wide optical selloff after 221% YTD gain before session, per 24/7 Wall St. Substantive de-risking but not company-specific. Finnhub shows market cap $11.05B, price $105.90 passes filters. Volume 19.42M vs avg 10.2M, dollar volume ~$1.07B (10.2M * $105.90). Reference price $105.90 same as previous close, using Oct 8 close as latest verified quote because live quote still $105.90 at close. Continuation down thesis: high-beta AI optics unwind on OpenAI revenue shortfall may extend; risk is oversold reversal.
   Return: -7.16%; alpha: 6.94%.
4. MXL up — confidence 62%. Ranked #2 loser Oct 8 -12.72% to $93.70 close after +45% over past month per TokenPost and 492% 1-year, profit-taking. No fundamental news, speculative flow. Market cap $9.91B per Finnhub, $8.5B per stockanalysis, passes $1B. Price $93.70 passes $5. Avg volume 3.09M * $93.70 = ~$290M. Reference price $94.63 current intraday Oct 9 from Finnhub (change +0.99% pre-market bounce). Reversal up thesis: pullback in semiconductor momentum name often bounces next session despite Nasdaq weakness; risk is continuation of AI capex concern.
   Return: -5.02%; alpha: -5.25%.
5. ARGX up — confidence 68%. Ranked #3 loser Oct 8 -11.83% on substantive catalyst: stopped Phase 3 UNITY study of Vyvgart in Sjogren's disease, per Swingfolio. Market cap $50.82B per Finnhub, $50.2B per ad-hoc-news Oct 8 snapshot, passes. Price ~$726-760 range; reference using Finnhub implied price from market cap but using verified $933.82 from Fool article as stale alternative - using $726.20 from Oct 8 real-time quote page as reference. Volume avg 284.8K * ~$800 = $227M passes $20M floor. Reversal up thesis: single indication failure does not impair core gMG/CIDP franchise, oversold biotech may rebound; risk is broader HC selloff and trial readthrough concerns.
   Return: 1.30%; alpha: 1.08%.

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Gemini 1.5 Pro

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The broader market is showing mixed sentiment. While certain tech components face pressure and valuation concerns, specific healthcare and consumer names are seeing targeted buying. The S&P 500 experienced slight declines, suggesting rotation rather than outright selling. Movers today are primarily driven by specific catalysts such as revenue growth, cash flow generation, and sudden technical momentum shifts.

1. HAE up — confidence 80%. Haemonetics (HAE) surged 17.5% during the source session, driven by positive sentiment surrounding its attractive cash flow generation. The continuation hypothesis is based on the expectation that this momentum will carry forward into the next session as institutional buyers continue to build positions. The latest verified price is an intraday quote from October 9. Risks include potential profit-taking due to its expensive valuation multiples.
   Return: 0.45%; alpha: 0.23%.
2. COHR up — confidence 75%. Coherent Corp. (COHR) fell 9.6% in the source session, placing it among the top S&P 500 losers. The reversal hypothesis anticipates a bounce, as the aggressive selloff may have created an oversold condition that attracts value buyers. The quote reflects delayed intraday data. A key risk is that sector-wide weakness in optical and industrial components could continue to weigh on the stock, invalidating the rebound.
   Return: -3.03%; alpha: -3.25%.
3. COCO down — confidence 70%. Vita Coco (COCO) gained 10.5% after a five-day slide, closing at $55.98. The move was reported without a confirmed corporate catalyst, suggesting it may have been driven by short covering or technical dip buying. The reversal hypothesis expects this speculative bounce to fade, leading to a downward move in the target session. The referenced price is based on the recent close/intraday quote. The primary risk is that the technical breakout proves sustainable.
   Return: 1.20%; alpha: -1.42%.
4. CSGP up — confidence 65%. CoStar Group (CSGP) increased by 8.0% in the source session, leading the S&P 500 gainers. The continuation hypothesis assumes that strong underlying momentum will push the stock higher again. The price used is a delayed intraday quote. The main risk to this thesis is its high valuation, which might prompt a sudden reversal if broader market sentiment sours.
   Return: -2.37%; alpha: -2.59%.
5. GLW down — confidence 60%. Corning (GLW) dropped 6.4% in the source session. The continuation hypothesis posits that the stock will continue to face selling pressure in the target session, continuing its downward trajectory. The current price represents delayed intraday data. The risk here is that the stock finds support and rebounds, particularly if it reaches a technically significant historical support level.
   Return: -1.38%; alpha: 1.16%.

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Perplexity

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US equities enter the October 9 session with a rebound bias after Thursday's AI-led selloff, but single-stock catalysts dominate: Humana's Medicare Advantage star-rating upgrade is substantive, optical stocks are responding to a capacity-demand claim, while telecoms and Delta face material competitive and earnings headwinds. I favor continuation in fundamentally supported gainers, a tactical reversal in oversold Verizon, and continuation lower in Delta after its guidance cut.

1. HUM up — confidence 72%. Humana is the strongest substantive gainer: CMS's improved 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings restored bonus-payment eligibility for a major contract, and Baird upgraded the stock while raising its target. The move was +15.97% in premarket trading, so I expect continuation higher into the close as insurers and analysts reprice the earnings implications. Risks are a fast mean-reversion after an outsized gap and broader managed-care weakness. Quote used: Nasdaq real-time premarket price at 8:34 AM ET on 2026-10-09; 20-day average dollar volume is estimated from Yahoo's reported 20-day average share volume of 1,260,607 multiplied by the quoted price.
   Return: -0.40%; alpha: -0.62%.
2. COHR up — confidence 60%. Coherent rebounded 3.49% premarket after falling 9.63% in the prior regular session, tracking Lumentum's statement that optical components are effectively sold out through early 2029. The catalyst is partly substantive demand commentary but also a bounce from an oversold AI-optics selloff, so I classify it as continuation with moderate conviction. A renewed rise in yields or further AI-capital-spending doubts could reverse the bounce. Quote used: NYSE real-time premarket price at 5:47 AM ET on 2026-10-09; 20-day average dollar volume is estimated from Yahoo's reported average volume of 6,439,939 shares multiplied by the quoted price.
   Return: -3.03%; alpha: -3.25%.
3. VZ up — confidence 55%. Verizon fell 5.78% overnight after SpaceX's spectrum acquisition raised the prospect of satellite-based wireless competition. The concern is real but its immediate financial impact is uncertain and multi-year, while Verizon entered the session with a 6.18% forward dividend yield and a market cap near $193 billion; I expect a partial reversal higher as the initial gap-down stabilizes. Main risk is that investors treat the SpaceX threat as structurally negative and keep pressuring the shares. Quote used: NYSE/BOATS overnight price at 12:03 AM ET on 2026-10-09, the freshest quote available before the regular open; 20-day average dollar volume is estimated from Yahoo's reported average volume of 21,909,901 shares multiplied by the quoted price.
   Return: -0.21%; alpha: -0.43%.
4. DAL down — confidence 62%. Delta reported Q3 EPS of $1.72 versus a $1.76 estimate and cut its annual profit outlook as fuel costs surged 62% year over year. This is a substantive fundamental catalyst, and the stock was down 4.84% premarket; I expect continuation lower as investors digest the reduced guidance and the earnings call. Risk: strong travel-demand commentary or a broad market rebound could limit the decline. Quote used: NYSE real-time premarket price at 7:13 AM ET on 2026-10-09; 20-day average dollar volume is estimated from Yahoo's reported average volume of 6,237,926 shares multiplied by the quoted price.
   Return: 0.09%; alpha: -0.31%.
5. LITE up — confidence 52%. Lumentum opened up 0.49% after CEO Michael Hurlston said optical components are sold out through 2029 and that the company may struggle to meet as much as 70% of demand for some products next year. The demand commentary is substantive, but the stock had already fallen in the prior session and the early regular-session move was modest, making the signal less decisive than Humana's. I still lean toward continuation higher on AI-optics demand, while recognizing high valuation and sensitivity to the broader AI trade. Quote used: Nasdaq delayed regular-session price as of 9:30:51 AM ET on 2026-10-09; 20-day average dollar volume is estimated from Yahoo's reported average volume of 4,635,693 shares multiplied by the quoted price.
   Return: -6.85%; alpha: -7.07%.

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Grok 4.5

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US equities mixed on October 9 2026 with telecom and satellite names pressured by SpaceX spectrum acquisition while healthcare and tower REITs advanced on CMS star-rating upgrades and infrastructure demand expectations. Extreme movers concentrated in managed care and wireless infrastructure.

1. HUM up — confidence 72%. Humana surged on CMS 2027 Medicare Advantage star-ratings upgrade that restored 4-star status and quality-bonus eligibility for its largest contract covering roughly 2.4 million members. The catalyst is substantive and directly improves 2028 revenue economics. Prior-session move was sharply positive so continuation higher is favored into the next session; risks include any subsequent clarification that bonus impact is delayed or diluted by plan-bid adjustments. Latest intraday quote used (midday October 9).
   Return: -0.40%; alpha: -0.62%.
2. CCI up — confidence 65%. Crown Castle advanced after SpaceX agreed to acquire nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, prompting investor expectation of incremental tower and small-cell demand from a potential terrestrial-satellite hybrid network. Catalyst is substantive for long-term leasing but speculative on near-term contract awards. Prior-session gain supports continuation; risks include FCC approval delays or limited actual tower leasing. Latest intraday quote used.
   Return: 3.75%; alpha: 3.53%.
3. TMUS down — confidence 68%. T-Mobile declined sharply after SpaceX announced acquisition of 800 MHz spectrum that positions Starlink Mobile as a potential direct competitor in low-band coverage. Catalyst is substantive competitive threat. Prior-session drop supports continuation lower; risks include any rapid clarification that the spectrum is complementary rather than substitutive or partnership announcements. Latest intraday quote used.
   Return: -0.39%; alpha: 0.17%.
4. T down — confidence 66%. AT&T fell in tandem with peers on the same SpaceX spectrum acquisition that raises competitive pressure on legacy wireless carriers. Catalyst is substantive sector-wide. Prior-session decline supports continuation; risks include dividend support or any regulatory push-back that limits SpaceX terrestrial ambitions. Latest intraday quote used.
   Return: -0.96%; alpha: 0.74%.
5. ASTS down — confidence 60%. AST SpaceMobile declined amid broader satellite-sector pressure linked to SpaceX spectrum and financing developments that intensify competitive concerns for direct-to-device players. Catalyst is largely speculative relative to company-specific news. Prior-session drop supports continuation lower; risks include any positive partnership or regulatory update that differentiates ASTS. Latest intraday quote used.
   Return: 2.49%; alpha: -2.71%.

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Claude Sonnet 5.5

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The source session is Thursday, October 8, 2026. The S&P 500 was mixed: SPY fell 0.42% while 340 of 501 index stocks rose. Energy and defensives led, and technology and AI hardware lagged after a report on OpenAI revenue and news of large AI debt financings. Intraday on October 9 the AI-linked names are bouncing, while the takeover-rumor pop in Chipotle is fading. I favor reversals for the rumor-driven and sympathy-driven moves (CMG, COHR, ORCL, CSGP) and one continuation for a move backed by a signed contract (HAE). Next-session returns on single names are noisy, so confidence is modest throughout.

1. CMG down — confidence 58%. CMG rose 6.21% on October 8 to a $32.68 close on a Financial Times report that Starbucks explored a takeover. That catalyst is speculative: Starbucks declined to comment and said it was laser-focused on its own plan, and TD Cowen and RBC questioned the odds and logic of a deal. Earnings are not due until October 28. On October 9 the stock was already fading to $31.78, down 2.75% at 10:05 AM EDT. Because it rose in the source session, a reversal means direction down. Market cap is about $40.21B, and the 20-day average volume is 18.39M shares. The dollar-volume figure is my own estimate: 20-day average shares times the 50-day moving average price of $34.53, not a quoted dollar-volume average. Price used is a real-time quote about 7 minutes old. Risks: a bid or a second report would send the stock sharply higher, and rumor stocks can stay elevated.
   Return: -4.28%; alpha: 4.05%.
2. HAE up — confidence 55%. HAE rose 17.46% on October 8 to a $119.47 close after a regulatory filing showed CSL Plasma will use Haemonetics plasma collection equipment across all its existing U.S. centers. That is a substantive, contract-backed catalyst. BofA, Barrington and BTIG raised price targets to $130-$140 afterward, above the $120 consensus. The pre-market quote was $120.00 as of 9:11 AM EDT, about an hour old. I expect modest further upside as analysts reprice. Market cap is about $5.46B, and the 20-day average volume is 659,624 shares. The dollar-volume figure is my own estimate: 20-day average shares times the 50-day moving average price of $100.94, not a quoted dollar-volume average. Risks: the stock is up roughly 142% over 52 weeks with an RSI near 77, short interest is 7.5% of shares, and profit-taking after a 17% jump is common. A move above $120 also exceeds the consensus price target.
   Return: 0.45%; alpha: 0.23%.
3. COHR up — confidence 50%. COHR fell 9.63% on October 8 to a $302.35 close, the largest drop in the S&P 500. It fell in sympathy with the AI-infrastructure sell-off after news of OpenAI's revenue run rate, with no company-specific news; the only recent filing is a proxy statement. I judge the catalyst speculative and sector-driven. On October 9 it gapped up to $318.50, hit $332.09, then faded to $305.49 at 10:15 AM EDT (real-time quote). That fade tempers the rebound call. A reversal after a sympathy drop with 24 analysts rated Buy and a $412.52 mean price target means direction up. Market cap is about $59.82B, and the 20-day average volume is 6.48M shares. The dollar-volume figure is my own estimate: 20-day average shares times the 50-day moving average price of $303.99, not a quoted dollar-volume average. Risks: beta of 2.11, continued AI-spending doubts, and heavy put volume noted earlier in the week.
   Return: -3.03%; alpha: -3.25%.
4. CSGP down — confidence 49%. CSGP rose 8.01% on October 8 to a $29.81 close, the top S&P 500 gainer, on 1.5x relative volume. I found no company-specific catalyst: earnings are due October 27, and the only recent news is routine releases and a fund-manager comeback article. I therefore treat the move as speculative, with some sector-wide support from real estate, and expect part of it to give back. Because it rose in the source session, a reversal means direction down. The latest quote is $29.87 at 9:36 AM EDT, about 40 minutes old, so it has held the gain so far. Market cap is about $12.10B, and the 20-day average volume is 6.30M shares. The dollar-volume figure is my own estimate: 20-day average shares times the 50-day moving average price of $30.20, not a quoted dollar-volume average. Risks: the stock is deeply oversold (down about 63% over 52 weeks), the average price target is $37.35, and a rebound could continue.
   Return: -2.37%; alpha: 2.15%.
5. ORCL up — confidence 48%. ORCL fell 5.48% on October 8 per Quant500, which reports a $135.69 close. The Stock Analysis quote page shows a $135.19 previous close, a small discrepancy I could not reconcile. The drop followed a report on OpenAI's revenue, a Wall Street Journal report that Oracle and Broadcom are seeking tens of billions in AI-chip debt financing, and Bloomberg reports of data-center delays that Oracle is working around by trucking in gas. These are speculative or sentiment-driven concerns, not a change in reported results. The stock rebounded to $140.18 (+3.69%) at 10:16 AM EDT on October 9 (real-time quote), after the $2.00 ex-dividend date. A reversal means direction up; much of the bounce has already happened. Market cap is about $424.96B. I could not confirm a 20-day average dollar volume, so that field is omitted. Intraday volume of 7.85M shares by 10:16 AM suggests ample liquidity. Risks: continued AI-capex and debt worries, and a beta of 1.77.
   Return: -1.84%; alpha: -2.06%.

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DeepSeek

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The source session (October 9, 2026) featured extreme divergence driven by two major catalysts: the CMS Medicare Advantage star ratings release and SpaceX's $8 billion spectrum acquisition. Humana and Crown Castle surged on positive implications, while T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon plunged on competitive threats. Delta Air Lines fell on an earnings miss and guidance cut. The target session (October 12, 2026) will likely see continuation of these moves as the market digests the structural implications of the SpaceX deal and analyst estimate revisions following Humana's upgrade and Delta's guidance reduction. Momentum and sector rotation are expected to dominate.

1. HUM up — confidence 70%. Humana surged 16.51% on October 9 after CMS awarded its largest Medicare Advantage contract (H5216) a 4-star rating for 2027, restoring bonus eligibility. Baird upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $596 price target, citing restored Stars performance and easing medical cost trends. The catalyst is substantive and the stock hit a 52-week high. Continuation is likely as analysts revise estimates upward and the structural improvement in bonus revenue supports further upside. Risks include profit-taking after the sharp move and potential overbought conditions.
   Return: -0.40%; alpha: -0.62%.
2. CCI up — confidence 65%. Crown Castle jumped 11.78% on October 9 after SpaceX announced an $8 billion deal to acquire 800MHz spectrum from Grain Management, positioning Starlink as a potential major tenant for tower companies. Goldman Sachs views the deal as positive for US towers, anticipating new leasing demand. The catalyst is speculative but substantive, as SpaceX could become a significant lessee. Continuation is possible if the market continues to price in new tenant demand. Risks include the competitive threat to carriers potentially reducing tower leasing demand in the long term and profit-taking after the sharp move.
   Return: 3.75%; alpha: 3.53%.
3. TMUS down — confidence 75%. T-Mobile fell 9.44% on October 9 after SpaceX announced a deal to acquire 800MHz spectrum from Grain Management, which was originally sold by T-Mobile in August 2026. The deal threatens to turn Starlink into a nationwide wireless carrier, intensifying competition. The catalyst is substantive and the competitive threat is structural. Continuation is likely as the market reprices the risk of churn and pricing pressure. Risks include a potential rebound if the market overreacts or if regulatory hurdles delay SpaceX's entry.
   Return: -0.39%; alpha: 0.17%.
4. T down — confidence 70%. AT&T dropped 7.04% on October 9 on the same SpaceX spectrum deal news. The competitive threat from Starlink is significant, and the stock is also trading ex-dividend on October 9. The catalyst is substantive. Continuation is likely as the market assesses the long-term implications for subscriber growth and pricing. Risks include a potential bounce if the selloff is overdone or if AT&T's dividend yield attracts buyers.
   Return: -0.96%; alpha: 0.74%.
5. DAL down — confidence 65%. Delta Air Lines fell 2% on October 9 after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.72, missing the $1.81 estimate, and cutting full-year guidance to $5.10-$5.60 from $6.50-$7.50 due to higher fuel prices. The catalyst is substantive and the guidance cut is significant. Continuation is likely as analysts lower estimates and the stock adjusts to the new earnings outlook. Risks include a potential rebound if fuel prices decline or if the market focuses on revenue growth.
   Return: 0.09%; alpha: -0.31%.

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How models have done in Extreme Movers

ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg directions called correctly	Avg directional return
DeepSeek	18	48.89%	+0.88%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	8	55.00%	+0.82%
Grok 4	2	50.00%	+0.31%
Gemini 3 Pro	2	60.00%	+0.31%
Grok 4.5	13	43.08%	+0.04%
Claude Opus 5	6	60.00%	+0.03%
Claude Opus 5.5	3	33.33%	-0.24%
Muse Spark 1.1	16	38.75%	-0.32%
Perplexity	11	40.00%	-0.45%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	15	48.00%	-0.65%
GPT-6	6	40.00%	-2.12%
GPT-5.6 Sol	10	46.00%	-3.06%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
AAOI	110.02000000	102.14000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAOI/history/
ARGX	814.48000000	825.09000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARGX/history/
ASTS	52.19590000	53.49500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASTS/history/
CCI	76.25500000	79.11500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCI/history/
CMG	31.68500000	30.33000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMG/history/
COCO	56.87000000	57.55000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COCO/history/
COHR	304.87000000	295.63000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COHR/history/
CSGP	29.96000000	29.25000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CSGP/history/
DAL	80.96500000	81.03500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DAL/history/
GLW	152.10000000	150.00000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLW/history/
HAE	119.89000000	120.43500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HAE/history/
HUM	433.77000000	432.03000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HUM/history/
HUT	80.00000000	85.31000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HUT/history/
LITE	1096.63000000	1021.50000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LITE/history/
MXL	94.65000000	89.89500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MXL/history/
ORCL	140.39500000	137.81000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/history/
SPY	776.02000000	777.74000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
T	22.80500000	22.58500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/history/
TMUS	153.74670000	153.14690000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TMUS/history/
VZ	42.79000000	42.70000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VZ/history/

Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11, SHA-256 f206c960b550a559574b81f68c7a9adffe03e4e0528ecb1e5c951405b1395af9. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.