This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for BTC, created 2026-09-24 17:17 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-25 17:17 UTC, when BTC closed at $83962.54, down 0.6% from $84511.00 when the forecast was made. It traded between $83155.99 and $85249.99 along the way (-1.6% to +0.9%).
Prediction window: Continuous elapsed hours / calendar days; crypto trades 24/7.
Prediction time: 2026-09-24 17:17 UTC (9/24/2026, 1:17:45 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-25 17:17 UTC (9/25/2026, 1:17:45 PM EDT). Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Crypto · 24/7. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
Want to forecast BTC -- or any other stock or ETF -- with your own model and see how it stacks up against these? Create your own AI model benchmark on ForecastNest.
4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except GPT-5.6 Sol, Gemini 3 Pro, and DeepSeek Chat found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $81000.00–$86000.00 | -3.1% to +2.9% | 62% | $83549.00 | 46.4 | no call |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $81300.00–$86000.00 | -3.3% to +2.3% | 55% | $84100.00 | 80.9 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $82800.00–$86200.00 | -1.9% to +2.1% | 52% | $84400.00 | 30.6 | wrong |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $84500.00–$88500.00 | -2.0% to +2.7% | 52% | $86215.00 | 5.6 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $82500.00–$85800.00 | -2.3% to +1.6% | 42% | $84439.00 | 79.5 | right |
| DeepSeek Chat | $81500.00–$84500.00 | -1.8% to +1.8% | 62% | $82987.00 | 29.7 | no call |
How these models have done on BTC over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-24 17:17 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 13 | — | 7 | 3 · 2 right | 3 · 3 right | 83% (5/6) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 16 | — | 2 | 3 · 2 right | 11 · 8 right | 71% (10/14) |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 16 | — | 4 | 6 · 4 right | 6 · 4 right | 67% (8/12) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 13 | — | 2 | 2 · 1 right | 9 · 5 right | 55% (6/11) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | — | 4 | 6 · 3 right | — | 50% (3/6) |
| GPT-6 | 6 | — | 2 | — | 4 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| DeepSeek Chat | 16 | — | 7 | 5 · 2 right | 4 · 1 right | 33% (3/9) |
| Kimi | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published BTC forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-24 17:17 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: CoinDesk's live Bitcoin market table showed Coinbase BTC-USD at $83,548.92 around the answer time, so I use $83,549 as the baseline. CoinDesk also reported BTC near $83,344 earlier today, down 1.23% since midnight UTC, after the market gave back an early recovery. The same report showed Bitcoin futures open interest down about 6% against roughly a 3% price decline over 24 hours, short-side taker volume above 52%, negative adjusted cumulative volume delta, and one-week options skew turning toward downside protection. :chatgpt-content-reference{index=
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Several quotes dated Sept 24, 2026 cluster between $83,500 and $84,400. Coinbase showed $84,059 about an hour before retrieval. Fortune gave $83,942.62 at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC). Yahoo Finance reported a $84,370 daily open and $83,462 at 7:33 ET. TradingStrategyGuides had $84,388. I anchor current_price at $84,100. data_access is 'partial' rather than 'live' because none of these quotes is verifiably timestamped at or after 17:17 UTC, and I have no clock to confirm when I am answering.
(2) Market regime: BTC is in a pullback inside a short-term uptrend. It rose about 10% over the week and hit roughly $87,300 earlier this week, which CNBC and Yahoo described as 8-month highs. It has since dropped about 2-4%. Nexo's Sept 24 market note says the 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.14%, its highest since 2007. That followed a hot September PMI and hawkish Fed commentary. Yahoo cites CME FedWatch at 75.3% odds of an October hike, after the Fed raised rates on Sept 16. Nexo also cites Glassnode data showing the prior rally was spot-driven rather than built on leverage, which argues against a liquidation cascade.
(3) Price range: I assume daily realized volatility of about 2.5-3%, which is typical for BTC. This window contains stacked event risk, so I skew the range downward: -3.3% to $81,300 and +2.3% to $86,000. The lower bound sits below this week's roughly $83,500 intraday low, reported by Seeking Alpha via Robinhood, in case that support fails. The upper bound sits just above the $85,000 call-strike cluster that Bloomberg and CryptoTimes highlighted, and below the $87,300 swing high.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The Trump-Xi meeting on Sept 24 (per Nexo) could move risk assets either way. The quarterly Deribit expiry is at 08:00 UTC Sept 25. Bloomberg puts it at about $15B, with a put/call ratio near 0.70. Decrypt puts Deribit max pain at about $76K, but that level is far from spot and probably a weak pull. US durable goods is at 12:30 UTC and the final UMich sentiment and inflation expectations reading at 14:00 UTC. CME September BTC futures settle at 15:00 UTC; CryptoSlate lists all of these. The bond-market rout and equity futures direction are the dominant macro driver.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: Spot ETF inflows were strong last week. Farside, via CryptoSlate, shows $999M on Sept 21. The options book leans toward calls, and BTC has so far absorbed the Fed hike and failed CLARITY Act progress (per Volity). If yields stabilize or the Trump-Xi meeting produces a trade signal, BTC could reclaim $85K-$86K once hedges tied to the expiry come off. A sustained move above about $86,000, or a clear drop in the 10-year yield, would invalidate the mild bearish call. A break below $81,000 would suggest a deeper move than I expect.
(6) Why 55%: The macro headwind is concrete and current, and price has lost momentum. That supports a slight downside lean. Against it, positioning after the expiry and the Trump-Xi headline risk are two-sided, one-day BTC direction is noisy, and my price anchor may be up to an hour or more stale relative to 17:17 UTC. So I hold only modest conviction in the direction, and somewhat more in the range.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live price as of Sep 24 2026 aggregated from search results showing $84,400 on finnhub.io / binance feed, $84,551.6 on Convex, and $84,173 on CryptoCycleIndex, with intraday high $84,942 and low $82,874. News flow from WEEX and UsetheBitcoin reports rejection after briefly clearing $87,000 earlier in week, triggering leveraged long liquidations. SoSoValue via TradingView / CryptoNews shows Sep 24 spot BTC ETF net inflow $241M led by BlackRock iBIT $129M, after $2B inflows Sep 18,21,22 that fueled rally from mid-$70k. Market context: Fear & Greed 71 Greed, daily RSI 73 overbought, price 18.8% above 200-day MA per CryptoCycleIndex.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term overbought pullback inside a resumed uptrend. September started weak, then flipped to risk-on with $4.6B month-to-date ETF inflows putting 2026 YTD flows positive per Bloomberg Intelligence via TokenPost. 5-day return +3.92%, 1-month +7.5%, 6-month +18.36% per finnhub data, but YTD still -4.96% and 1-year -22.54%, so this is a bear-market rally attempt not yet a new ATH regime. Crypto is trading as high-beta macro: 10-year yield above 5.00% and PMI expansion cited as headwind in WEEX brief.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $84,400 at 17:17 UTC. Recent daily range ~$2,067 ($82,874-$84,942) implies ATR ~2.5%. Rejection wick at $87k is now resistance, $84,942 intraday high is first pivot. Support stacked at prior close $83,758 and low $82,874. With RSI 73 and funding 0.01% positive, upside to $86,200 allows a retest of $86k-$87k supply without making new high, downside to $82,800 allows a fill back toward open/low and liquidation flush. Range is slightly skewed down (-1.9% vs +2.1%) reflecting intraday bearish momentum while uptrend holds.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major US macro prints scheduled within 1-day window from Sep 24 17:17 UTC; primary driver is ETF flow follow-through and equity close. Sep 24 $241M inflow needs confirmation Sep 25 - prior pattern was inflow then $258M outflow within 48h per TradingNews. Funding and Fear & Greed at 71 suggest longs crowded after $87k squeeze. Options expiry and US equities trading around 10-year >5% are background volatility sources noted in daily brief.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case is momentum + ETF creation squeeze: if Sep 24 inflows persist above $200M and short liquidations continue, $87k rejection could be re-absorbed and price pushes through $86.5k to $87k+ inside 24h, invalidating mild-bearish intraday read. Bear case deeper flush if equity weakness extends and ETF flows reverse as they did Sep 15-16, which would take price below $82,800 toward $81,500 low of last week. Invalidation of range is a daily close outside $82.8k-$86.2k on high spot volume.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects low edge over 1 day with conflicting signals: strong 1-week momentum and ETF inflows argue up, but overbought RSI 73, Fear & Greed 71, and immediate 3% pullback from $87k argue for mean reversion. Live price retrieval achieved but no order book or realized vol model, so volatility estimate based on reported high/low only. Neutral-to-mild-bearish intraday vs mild-bullish daily makes tight range inherently noisy.
Gemini 3 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: Bitcoin is currently trading near $86,215, consolidating strong gains after an aggressive institutional-driven rally earlier in the week supported by heavy ETF inflows near $999 million. The market is experiencing a digestion phase following short liquidations and a retest of multi-month highs.
(2) Technical synthesis: Shorter timeframes (1h to 4h) display typical consolidation behavior and neutral momentum following overbought daily relative strength index (RSI) conditions. Immediate support is firmly established around the $84,500-$85,000 former resistance-turned-support area.
(3) Price range: The projected 1-day band spans from $84,500 to $88,500, accounting for standard daily realized volatility of roughly 2.5% to 3%. This structure allows room for minor profit-taking pullbacks down to key support while accommodating upside continuation probes toward $88,000 if macro sentiment stays favorable.
(4) Catalysts: Immediate short-term drivers include ongoing spot ETF net creation updates and potential commentary from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy easing paths.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest risk to the upside case is an abrupt reversal in institutional ETF inflows or unexpected macro hawkishness that triggers leveraged long liquidations. A sustained drop below the $84,000 psychological mark would invalidate the near-term bullish consolidation thesis.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is set at 52% to reflect a balanced view over a tight 1-day duration, where random noise and mean reversion frequently override directional momentum in the absence of fresh macro shocks.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance showed BTC-USD at $84,439.25 as of approximately 17:09 UTC on 2026-09-24, with a day range of $82,990-$84,820 after opening near $84,370. Supporting data from MarketWatch CoinDesk index, CoinMarketCap mirrors, and exchange feeds clustered in the $83,900-$84,500 zone. Recent history from the same sources shows a high near $87,300-$87,370 on Sept 21-23 followed by a pullback. ETF flow data from Farside/SoSoValue indicated multi-day inflows totaling roughly $2.65B over five sessions through Sept 23, with $347M on the latest reported day. News coverage from CoinDesk, Bloomberg, and Cryptotimes detailed a $15-16B Deribit options expiry scheduled for 08:00 UTC on Sept 25.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term regime is a corrective pullback inside a broader recovery. BTC rallied from the mid-$70k area mid-month to reclaim $87k on ETF creations, short covering, and institutional demand, then retreated under pressure from rising US Treasury yields (10-year near multi-year highs) and stronger PMI data that increased rate-hike expectations. Daily technicals still show price above key moving averages with positive MACD, but momentum has cooled and RSI sits in neutral-to-elevated territory after the surge.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the observed $84,439 quote, the 1-day range of $82,500-$85,800 reflects recent realized daily swings of 2-3% plus the day low already printed near $82,990. Downside room accounts for possible post-expiry gamma unwind or further yield-driven risk-off; upside is capped by the prior rejection zone near $85.5k-$87k and residual seller interest. ATR-style volatility from the past week supports this band rather than a wider excursion in a single session.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The dominant near-term event is the large Deribit Bitcoin options expiry (approx. $15-16B notional, call-heavy with put/call ratio near 0.69-0.71) settling at 08:00 UTC on Sept 25. Dealer hedge reduction after settlement can increase short-term volatility. Secondary factors include ongoing US Treasury yield moves, any residual ETF creation/redemption prints, and potential US economic data releases that could reinforce or ease rate expectations.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Persistent ETF inflows and the call-heavy options positioning could absorb selling and allow a quick retest of $86k-$87k if yields stabilize or risk appetite returns. Invalidation of the mild near-term caution would be a decisive close back above $86,000 with expanding volume, or clear evidence that post-expiry flows remain net supportive rather than neutral-to-negative.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest at 42% because the 1-day window is dominated by a discrete event (options expiry) whose net flow impact is uncertain, macro yields remain a live headwind, and short-term direction after a sharp rally-plus-pullback is often noise-dominated. Live price and flow data improve the baseline, but the combination of mixed time-frame signals and event risk limits precision.
DeepSeek Chat
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: As of 2026-09-24 17:34:30 UTC, Gate market data shows BTC/USDT at $82,986.6, down 3.35% over 24 hours, having briefly broken below $83,000 (ChainCatcher). Earlier in the session, BTC opened at $84,370 and slid to $83,462 by 11:33 UTC (Yahoo Finance), with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5.13%, its highest since 2007 (KuCoin, Yonhap Infomax). The Fear & Greed Index stood at 71, down from 78 (KuCoin).
(2) The current market regime as I read it: Macro headwinds dominate. The stronger-than-expected September PMI (58.4) pushed October rate-hike odds to 69.7% (KuCoin), and surging Treasury yields are compressing risk-asset valuations. BTC has retraced sharply from its $87,000 high earlier this week, and the short-term structure has shifted from high-level consolidation to a weak recovery following a pullback. ETF inflows remain positive but slowed to $347M on Wednesday after a $999M spike on Monday (KuCoin, ADVFN).
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility I am using: The $83,600-$83,800 zone provided strong-volume support earlier in the day (KuCoin), but that level has since given way. Below that, the next visible support is around $82,800 (the recent intraday low) and then $82,000. On the upside, $84,500 is the level where the market consolidated before the latest leg down (Netdania), and $85,000 is a psychological barrier. Given the 3.3% daily decline and elevated macro volatility, I expect a 24-hour range of roughly ±1.5-2% around the current price, with more room to the downside.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The most significant near-term catalyst is the $15.9 billion quarterly Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit scheduled for 08:00 UTC on September 25 (MEXC, BitExen). The maximum pain point is reportedly at $75,000 (KuCoin), which could pull price action toward that level as dealers hedge. Additionally, any further upside in Treasury yields or hawkish Fed commentary will weigh on crypto.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate my call: The counter-argument is that the options expiry could trigger a short squeeze if BTC holds above key strike prices, and that the recent ETF inflows (five consecutive days) could provide a floor. If BTC reclaims $84,500 on strong volume and Treasury yields stabilise, the bearish case weakens. A close above $85,000 would invalidate my downside bias.
(6) Why my confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 62% because the macro backdrop is clearly negative for risk assets, and the technical structure has broken down from its recent range. However, the upcoming options expiry introduces two-sided risk, and crypto markets can reverse sharply on positioning. The lack of clarity on the exact strike distribution limits my conviction.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
Published automatically when this question settled, from shared research a member chose to make public. Content on ForecastNest Insights is for research, educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.