This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-09-24 17:30 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-25 17:30 UTC, when NVDA closed at $225.06, up 0.4% from $224.12 when the forecast was made. It traded between $223.13 and $226.94 along the way (-0.4% to +1.3%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-24 17:30 UTC (9/24/2026, 1:30:45 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-25 17:30 UTC (9/25/2026, 1:30:45 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-25 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 5 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $218.50–$229.00 | -2.6% to +2.1% | 58% | $224.29 | 31.0 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $221.00–$227.50 | -1.3% to +1.6% | 56% | $223.97 | 80.3 | right |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $216.50–$232.00 | -3.4% to +3.5% | 52% | $224.06 | 52.1 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $219.00–$228.00 | -2.4% to +1.6% | 42% | $224.31 | 31.7 | wrong |
| DeepSeek V3 | $220.00–$230.00 | -2.4% to +2.0% | 58% | $225.51 | 31.0 | wrong |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-24 17:30 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 6 | — | 1 | 2 · 2 right | 3 · 2 right | 80% (4/5) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 6 | — | 1 | 3 · 2 right | 2 · 1 right | 60% (3/5) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 6 | — | 1 | 4 · 2 right | 1 · 0 right | 40% (2/5) |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 6 | — | 1 | 3 · 1 right | 2 · 1 right | 40% (2/5) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 5 | — | 1 | 3 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/4) |
| Grok 4.5 | 5 | — | 2 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 0 right | 0% (0/3) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-24 17:30 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com showed NVDA at $224.29, down 0.54%, with an intraday range of $221.09-$224.48 and a displayed real-time timestamp of 12:43:58 ET; because that quote timestamp is earlier than the requested 17:30 UTC baseline, I treat $224.29 as the best available near-window estimate rather than an exact 17:30 UTC print. The prior session closed at $225.51 after a 1.47% decline. Sources: https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data and https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/chart/
(2) Market regime: The immediate regime is mixed but slightly risk-off for semiconductors. NVDA recovered substantially from the session low near $221, which weakens the short-term bearish case, but it remains below the previous close while semiconductor shares face pressure from rising Treasury yields. Reports today cited the U.S. 10-year yield above 5%, higher oil prices and broader semiconductor weakness; at the same time, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were roughly flat, suggesting the pressure is more concentrated in rate-sensitive and chip names than a broad market liquidation. Sources: https://www.tipranks.com/news/nvidia-amd-intel-stocks-slipping-heres-why and https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data
(3) Price range: I use $218.50-$229.00 for the next one-day window. The downside extends below today's $221.09 low because NVDA has recently shown multi-dollar daily ranges and remains sensitive to bond-yield moves; $218-$219 also overlaps the September 17-18 trading area. The upper bound sits just above the September 23 high of $228.95. The range is deliberately skewed slightly downward from the reported $224.29 anchor because the near-term macro pressure is negative even though the intraday recovery is constructive. Source for historical levels: https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp-historical-data
(4) Catalysts: The dominant catalyst inside this short window is macro rather than a scheduled NVIDIA earnings event. Today's semiconductor weakness has been linked to Treasury yields above 5%, oil-driven inflation concerns and uncertainty around U.S.-China discussions, which are particularly relevant to NVIDIA because Chinese access to AI accelerators remains an important policy issue. NVIDIA's investor-relations site does not currently list an imminent earnings release; its latest reported quarter was fiscal Q2 2027 on August 26, with revenue of $96.2 billion and Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion. Sources: https://investor.nvidia.com/financial-info/financial-reports/default.aspx and https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bullish counterpoint is that the underlying AI demand picture remains exceptionally strong, while today's recovery from roughly $221 toward $224 shows buyers absorbing weakness. A sustained move back through roughly $225.50 and then the $228.95 prior-session high would undermine the mild-bearish one-day view. Conversely, renewed weakness below today's $221.09 low would reinforce it. NVIDIA's latest quarterly report showed 106% year-over-year revenue growth and 117% Data Center growth, providing substantial fundamental support beneath short-term macro volatility. Source: https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/
(6) Confidence: 58%. The macro and relative-price evidence supports a modest downside bias over one day, but conviction is limited because NVDA has already rebounded sharply from its session low, the broader indices are comparatively stable, and the freshest directly timestamped quote I could verify was not exactly at the 17:30 UTC baseline. That combination favors MILD BEARISH rather than a stronger directional call.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Current quote retrieved via finnhub.io showing Current Price 223.97, Open 222.08, High 224.63, Low 221.09, Previous Close 225.51, Change -1.54, -0.68% on 2026-09-24【1243003638489760221†L17-L24】. Secondary cross-check via midforex.com reporting NVDA trading at $222.63 as of Sept 24 ET【1243003638489760221†L27-L30】 and litefinance.org reporting $225.30 as of 24.09.2026【1243003638489760221†L33-L36】. News flow on Sept 24 includes Mizuho reiterating Outperform on NVDA【1174738781137212248†L33-L36】, insider selling pressuring shares down 1.5% mid-day Sept 24【1243003638489760221†L40-L44】, and pre-market risk headline from Invezz Sept 24 about Nvidia/AMD/Intel plunging before open on yield concerns【1243003638489760221†L77-L80】.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term consolidation after YTD gain 20.09% and 6-month gain 25.35% per finnhub metrics【1243003638489760221†L12-L15】, trading just below prior close with intraday range ~3.5 points. Beta 2.22 implies elevated sensitivity【1243003638489760221†L15-L18】. Broader AI capex narrative intact with Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue up 56% YoY driven by Data Center $41.1B【1174738781137212248†L56-L61】 and Q2 CY2026 sales $96.22B beating estimates【1174738781137212248†L64-L66】, but near-term price action is choppy with insider selling and rising yield narrative capping momentum.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchoring to $223.97. 1-day expected move based on recent daily ATR proxy from High-Low 221.09-224.63 = $3.54【1243003638489760221†L19-L22】 and yesterday's open 225.51【1243003638489760221†L72-L75】. Using 1.2x intraday range for 24h window gives ~$2.8 below and $3.5 above, slightly skewed lower due to -0.68% momentum and insider-selling overhang. Range $221.00-$227.50 respects today's low as support and recent Star Tribune print 227.38 as resistance【1243003638489760221†L48-L51】. Symmetrical enough to reflect NEUTRAL 1d signal while leaving more room upside to capture mean-reversion if Mizuho $205 target debate is dismissed as stale low.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: 1-day window 2026-09-24 17:30 UTC to 2026-09-25 17:30 UTC captures US close Sept 24 and open Sept 25. No NVDA earnings inside window (Q2 already reported). Known catalysts from search: Trump-Xi dinner week of Sept 24 with Jensen Huang expected, discussing chip access and AI safety【1174738781137212248†L50-L54】 - headline risk but not scheduled within exact 24h. Mizuho note Sept 24 is already digested【1174738781137212248†L33-L36】. Main driver will be continuation of 13F filing season showing mixed institutional flows: new stake by Sacks & Associates【1174738781137212248†L5-L8】 vs trims by Advisors Management【1174738781137212248†L11-L14】, and macro yield move referenced by Invezz【1243003638489760221†L77-L80】.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bearish invalidation: a break below $221.09 low of day【1243003638489760221†L19-L22】 on heavy volume tied to deeper insider selling or a negative Trump-Xi headline on export controls would push toward $211-$212 lower bound cited in 30-day AI model【1243003638489760221†L27-L31】. Bullish invalidation: renewed AI capex commitment or OpenAI $100B bet narrative gaining traction lifts NVDA back above $225.51 open and $228.87 prior close noted in Defense World piece【1243003638489760221†L42-L45】, which would invalidate mild bearish 4h tilt. With beta >2, any 5% yield spike narrative could amplify moves beyond range.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 56% reflects live price retrieval but conflicting secondary prints ($222.63 vs $225.30 vs $223.97) and noisy news (insider selling vs Outperform reiteration same day). 1-day direction is near noise; volatility estimate is grounded in today's observed range, but macro headline risk (yields, US-China chip access) lowers precision. Honest NEUTRAL stance over 1d and 1h aligns with mixed signals, while 7d/30d bullish reflects intact fundamental beat noted in Q2 results.
Gemini 3 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is operating in a resilient large-cap tech regime, consolidating just beneath recent highs near $225.51 after a robust summer advance driven by sustained institutional demand for AI accelerator infrastructure.
(2) Technical synthesis: Real-time price action retrieved from NASDAQ feeds shows the stock trading around $224.06 during the session on September 24, 2026, finding consistent short-term support near the intraday low of $221.09 while facing light overhead resistance near $226.00-$228.00.
(3) Price range: The 1-day range of $216.50 to $232.00 is bounded by standard daily historical volatility and immediate order-book liquidity nodes, allowing sufficient cushion for normal intraday mean-reversion without pricing in an outsized macro shock.
(4) Catalysts: There are no major Tier-1 earnings releases or scheduled company-specific product keynotes within this immediate 24-hour window, leaving price direction heavily dependent on broader semiconductor sector flows and macroeconomic headline prints.
(5) Counter-argument: The primary risk to a neutral-to-steady view is a sudden macro-driven rotation out of high-multiple mega-cap growth equities, which could quickly puncture immediate support at $221.00 and drag the price toward the lower boundary.
(6) Confidence score: Confidence is set at 52% to reflect the inherent randomness of short 1-day horizons where technical consolidation patterns frequently produce choppy, directionless noise rather than clean trends.
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance (as of ~1:31 PM EDT / 17:31 UTC on 2026-09-24) show NVDA at $224.31, down 0.53% from the prior close of $225.51, with the day’s range $221.09-$224.63. Supporting prints from CNBC (~$223.52), WSJ (~$223.31), and StockAnalysis (~$224.43) confirm the same session. Recent price history shows a pullback from the mid-September peak near $230-$236 after a multi-day advance. News flow (Yahoo, TipRanks, 24/7 Wall St., IBD) notes broader chip-sector softness amid U.S.-China trade talks and AI-spending debate; no company-specific shock today. Next earnings confirmed/estimated mid-to-late November 2026 (Yahoo, Zacks, Wall Street Horizon).
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Near-term price action is corrective within a still-intact intermediate uptrend. The stock has delivered solid 1-month (~7%) and YTD (~20-21%) gains while trading well above the 52-week low ($164.27) and only modestly below the 52-week high ($236.54). Volume is running light relative to the ~128 M average, consistent with a digestion day rather than aggressive distribution. Fundamentals remain supportive-strong recent quarterly results, Vera Rubin ramp commentary, and analyst consensus Strong Buy with ~$328 average target-yet valuation sensitivity and macro/trade headlines are producing short-term pressure.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live $224.31 quote, the one-day range of $219-$228 reflects typical single-session realized volatility for NVDA (recent daily moves of 1-2.5% are common) plus the observed intraday low near $221 and resistance near the prior close / early-session highs. A modest downside skew accommodates the current soft tape; upside is capped by the lack of an immediate positive catalyst inside the 24-hour window.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: None of material magnitude. The trading day ends in a few hours; no earnings, major product launches, or scheduled policy announcements fall inside the 1-day horizon. Residual headlines around trade discussions or AI-capex commentary could add noise but are already partially reflected in today’s tape.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sudden positive resolution or constructive signal from U.S.-China talks, or a sharp risk-on reversal in the broader semiconductor complex, could push the stock toward the upper end of the range or beyond. Conversely, an unexpected negative geopolitical or supply-chain headline could extend the decline below $219. Either development would invalidate the neutral 1-day stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is deliberately moderate (42%) because the 1-day window is dominated by noise rather than directional information; live price and news are available, yet no high-conviction catalyst exists and short-term momentum is mixed. Longer-horizon signals rest on more durable fundamental trends and therefore carry higher directional conviction.
DeepSeek V3
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Yahoo Finance and stockanalysis.com show NVDA closed at $225.51 on 2026-09-23, down 1.47%. Pre-market on 2026-09-24 was $223.38. The 52-week range is $164.27-$236.54, with a day range of $224.02-$228.95. Analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average target of $328.66 (stockanalysis.com, 61 analysts). Recent news includes Nvidia's $1.5B additional investment in SB Energy (Yonhap, 2026-09-22) and Wall Street skepticism about data-center IPOs (NYT, cited by Yonhap). Next earnings is Nov 17, 2026 (Yahoo Finance).
(2) Market regime: NVDA is range-bound below $228 resistance after a pullback from the $234.75 area. The 50-day EMA near $215 is cited as significant support (Yahoo Finance technical analysis, 2026-09-23). Dark-pool activity clusters around $222.27 (KuCoin, 2026-09-19). Short-term momentum is negative but not decisively bearish; the stock is holding above key moving averages around $223.33 (Investing.com, 2026-09-21).
(3) Price range justification: With an average daily range of roughly $4-$5 and beta of 2.22, a one-day move from $225.51 could reasonably span $220-$230. Resistance at $228 and $234.75 caps upside, while support at $222-$223 and $215 limits downside. The range is slightly skewed downward to reflect the recent close below the prior day's range and the lack of a positive catalyst.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings or major economic releases are scheduled for 2026-09-24 or 2026-09-25. Jensen Huang's visit to Kazakhstan (started 2026-09-23) may generate AI-related headlines, but these are unlikely to move the stock materially in one day. The SB Energy investment news is already public.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The Strong Buy consensus and high average projected level ($328.66) suggest institutional buying could emerge on dips, especially near the $222-$223 dark-pool magnet. A break above $228 would invalidate the mild-bearish call and could open a move toward $234.75. Conversely, a drop below $215 would signal a deeper correction than my range allows.
(6) Why confidence is 58%: I have current price data and recent news, but no live intraday quote at the exact window start (17:30 UTC) and no scheduled catalyst within the one-day horizon. The stock is at a technical inflection point between support and resistance, making directional conviction moderate at best.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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