This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for CEG, created 2026-09-03 14:20 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-04 14:20 UTC, when CEG closed at $289.82, up 1.2% from $286.33 when the forecast was made. It traded between $282.25 and $291.00 along the way (-1.4% to +1.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-03 14:20 UTC (9/3/2026, 10:20:06 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-04 14:20 UTC (9/4/2026, 10:20:06 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-04 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 4 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except GPT-5.6 Luna, DeepSeek-R1, and Grok 4.5 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $279.00–$299.50 | -4.0% to +3.1% | 70% | $290.50 | 21.4 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $282.50–$296.00 | -1.8% to +2.9% | 65% | $287.65 | 82.2 | right |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $284.00–$300.00 | -2.1% to +3.4% | 62% | $290.04 | 63.2 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $282.00–$300.00 | -2.8% to +3.4% | 40% | $290.04 | 60.8 | right |
| Claude Sonnet 5 (claude-sonnet-5) | $278.00–$298.50 | -3.2% to +3.9% | 42% | $287.17 | 79.0 | right |
How these models have done on CEG over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-03 14:20 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude Sonnet 5 (claude-sonnet-5) | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published CEG forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-03 14:20 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price and market context: CEG closed September 2 at $290.04 after gaining 3.47%. ChartMill reported a September 3 premarket price of $290.51 at 7:58 AM EDT, with the day's displayed range extending from $277.88 to $290.81. I could not independently verify a trade exactly at 10:20 AM EDT, so $290.50 is my best estimate anchored to the latest available September 3 quote rather than a claimed exact tick. (Sources: ChartMill; MarketWatch.)
(2) Market regime: The immediate trend is recovering strongly: CEG gained 2.02% on September 1 and another 3.47% on September 2, taking it from $280.31 to $290.04 in two sessions. ChartExchange reports the 50-day moving average near $265.08 and the 200-day average near $297.06, placing the stock well above its short-term average but still just below the longer-term 200-day trend line. This creates a mixed regime: strong rebound momentum, but meaningful overhead resistance near $297. (Source: ChartExchange.)
(3) Price range: I estimate $279.00-$299.50 for the next one-day window from the approximately $290.50 reference. The lower boundary is close to the September 3 intraday low area and permits a reversal of the recent two-day rally; the upper boundary slightly exceeds the 200-day average near $297 and allows continuation toward the next psychological $300 area. CEG's recent daily ranges have been relatively wide, so a roughly $20 total one-day envelope is appropriate despite the stock's current upward momentum. (Sources: ChartExchange; ChartMill.)
(4) Catalysts: The principal near-term catalyst is the broader energy and interest-rate environment. Reuters reports that U.S. stocks were higher on September 3 after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he could support keeping rates steady if inflation continues cooling, while Brent crude moved above $96 amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. CEG also has a September 4 ex-dividend date for a $0.427 quarterly dividend, according to Plainzer, although the effect on the share price should be mechanically limited. The next scheduled CEG earnings report is estimated for November 9, so there is no company earnings catalyst inside this one-day window. (Sources: Reuters; Plainzer; TipRanks.)
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument to a short-term cautious view is the powerful fundamental nuclear-energy and data-center-demand narrative. Constellation reported strong Q2 results and raised its full-year outlook, while recent reporting indicates the company signed approximately 920 MW of long-term nuclear contracts during Q2. If investors continue rotating toward nuclear and reliable power exposure, CEG could break through the approximately $297 200-day average and extend toward $300. A failure to sustain the September 2-3 rebound, particularly a move back below the high-$280s, would weaken the bullish interpretation. (Sources: TradingKey; 247WallSt; ChartExchange.)
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 70% because the recent price momentum and company-specific fundamentals are clearly positive, but the stock is approaching its 200-day average after a rapid two-day advance and therefore has meaningful technical resistance overhead. The broader market is also balancing supportive rate expectations against elevated oil prices and geopolitical risk. I therefore favor mild bearish for the immediate 1-hour window as the rally consolidates, neutral for 4 hours, mild bearish for the full next day because of resistance near $297, and more bullish on 7- and 30-day horizons because nuclear-power demand, long-duration contracts and improved earnings guidance remain supportive. (Sources: ChartExchange; Reuters; Constellation Energy investor-relations materials.)
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from financial platforms including Robinhood and GuruFocus confirms CEG traded at $287.65 as of 14:20 UTC on Thursday, September 3, 2026. The stock closed at $290.04 on Wednesday after a 3.5% surge, followed by a slight intraday pullback this morning on moderate volume.
(2) The current market regime for CEG is structurally bullish, fueled by the secular theme of AI data centers requiring massive, reliable carbon-free baseload power. As the largest nuclear operator in the US, Constellation Energy is commanding a premium valuation, enjoying strong institutional accumulation after recently raising full-year guidance following a Q2 earnings beat.
(3) The price range of $282.50-$296.00 brackets current intraday volatility. The downside respects the structural support established near $280 to $282 earlier this week. The upside allows room to reclaim Wednesday's $290 high and push toward $296 on continued momentum.
(4) Inside this 24-hour window, price action will primarily be driven by broader market beta and tech-sector flows heading into Friday's critical Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. While no company-specific events are scheduled, CEG often trades as a high-beta proxy for AI infrastructure demand.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to continued near-term upside is valuation friction and overextension. With the stock currently trading at a P/E of roughly 28x and slightly above its intrinsic fair value estimates, it is vulnerable to profit-taking. If Thursday's broader market sentiment sours ahead of the NFP report, CEG could easily slip back toward $280.
(6) My confidence is 65%. While Constellation Energy enjoys a powerful macro tailwind from the nuclear data center narrative, a 1-day forecast immediately following a multi-day rally is highly susceptible to typical pre-NFP consolidation and erratic intraday chop.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: As of the forecast window start (2026-09-03 14:20 UTC), CEG is trading at $290.04. Multiple real-time sources confirm this: Yahoo Finance shows $290.04, up 3.47% on the day, with a pre-market quote of $290.80; Robinhood reports $290.80 in pre-market trading, with the stock moving between $277.88 and $290.81 on September 3; Google Finance also shows $290.04. The previous close was $280.31, and the 52-week range is $228.63-$412.70. I have anchored my range to $290.04, reflecting the price at window start.
(2) Current market regime: CEG is in a strong recovery rally after a sharp pullback from its 52-week high of $412.70. The stock is up 17.53% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 11.99%. The September 2 rally of 3.47% was driven by AI-driven power demand, with Constellation's CEO noting that "projected spending levels for 2026 are nearly 75% higher than last year and continue to be revised upward". The company reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.55, beating consensus of $2.29, and raised full-year 2026 guidance to $11.50-$12.50 per share. The stock is also benefiting from Microsoft and Meta signing multi-decade nuclear power deals, with CEG identified as the only US operator with a fleet of scale to sign multi-decade hyperscaler PPAs.
(3) Price range justification: I expect CEG to trade between $284.00 and $300.00 over the next 1-day window. The upper bound of $300 is informed by options data showing a concentrated call wall at $300 from open interest, which acts as a resistance level. The lower bound of $284 is informed by the bullish support line identified by Nasdaq Dorsey Wright at $284, with initial support at $296. The range is asymmetric to the upside because momentum is bullish following the 3.47% rally, the stock is trading above key moving averages, and the AI/nuclear power narrative continues to attract buyers. The 52-week range of $228.63-$412.70 provides a wide context, but the near-term range is tighter given the stock's recent stabilization.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The immediate 1-day window (September 3) includes no company-specific earnings for CEG; the next earnings report is estimated for November 9, 2026. However, the broader market is reacting to: (a) the ongoing AI-driven power demand narrative, with hyperscaler customers continuing to sign long-term power purchase agreements-Constellation signed approximately 920 MW of additional nuclear PPAs in Q2; (b) the continued positive sentiment following the Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise; and (c) the September 2 secondary offering dynamic, where the stock fell briefly below the $281.00 offering price before rebounding strongly, indicating buyer conviction.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $412.70 and faces resistance at $300 from options positioning. The $290 projected level from Mizuho Securities, which maintains a Hold rating, suggests limited upside in the near term. Additionally, the GAAP net income declined year-over-year from $2.67 to approximately $1.42 per share due to one-time acquisition costs, and the $7.5 billion Q2 revenue slightly missed the $7.73 billion consensus. A failure to break above $300 or a broader market risk-off move could invalidate the bullish call. The secondary offering price of $281 also acts as a psychological floor-if broken, it could trigger further selling.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 62%, reflecting a market with clear bullish catalysts (AI power demand, guidance raise, nuclear PPAs) but near-term technical resistance at $300. The 1-day window is short, and the stock's 1.12 beta suggests moderate sensitivity to broader market moves. The analyst consensus is strongly bullish-88% of 24 ratings are Buy, with an average projected level of $348.30-but the stock is still 24% below its 52-week high, indicating that sentiment has cooled from peak levels. I am more confident in the $284-$300 range than in an immediate breakout above $300, as the $300 call wall is a known resistance level.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Wednesday 2 Sep 2026 close was $290.04 (up 3.47% from Tuesday’s $280.31), day range $277.88-$290.81, volume ~2.9M, per StockAnalysis, Stocknear, Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool and MarketWatch. Pre-market Thursday 3 Sep quoted near $289.67-$292. 52-week range $228.63-$412.70. Next earnings estimated early November.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Strong rebound session for the nuclear/utility producer, extending a short-term recovery amid broader market stabilization and ongoing interest in carbon-free power and data-center demand. Price action has been constructive over the past several sessions after earlier volatility.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $290.04 Wednesday close. Recent daily ranges of $8-15 and moderate beta support a 1-day window of roughly ±3-4%. Lower bound near $282 allows for a pullback toward recent support; upper bound near $300 covers continuation of the rebound. Range is modestly wider on the upside reflecting the recent momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific earnings or major filings for Thursday 3 Sep. Broader market direction, power-sector sentiment and any overnight news on energy policy or demand remain the primary potential drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A broader risk-off move or profit-taking could push CEG below $282; stronger follow-through on nuclear/AI power demand could drive a break above $300. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Wednesday close and pre-market quotes are confirmed and recent direction is constructive, yet single-day forecasts remain noise-dominated without stock-specific catalysts; moderate conviction is appropriate.
Claude Sonnet 5 (claude-sonnet-5)
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The window opens 2026-09-03 14:20 UTC, 10:20 AM EDT Thursday, squarely inside the regular session. StockAnalysis.com quotes CEG at $287.17, down $2.87 (-0.99%) from a $290.04 previous close, timestamped Sep 3, 2026, 10:19 AM EDT - a minute before the window start, so this is a genuinely live intraday print. I flag one inconsistency in the same fetch: the page's stated day's range of $289.06-$296.62 does not bracket the $287.17 quote, which looks like a scraping artifact (possibly a stale or mislabeled range field) rather than the actual session range; the price and percent change are internally consistent (290.04 - 2.87 = 287.17), so I am anchoring to those and disregarding the range figure. Wednesday Sept 2's session, confirmed by two sources (MarketBeat, Trading Economics), closed at $290.04, up $9.73 (+3.47%), with an extended-hours print of $289.35 (-0.24%) at 7:59 PM. Statistics from StockAnalysis.com: beta 1.12, 50-day moving average $266.03, 200-day moving average $296.62, RSI 67.27 (elevated, approaching overbought), average 20-day volume 2.25M shares, short interest 2.66% of shares outstanding, 354.31M shares outstanding. Fundamentals: Q2 2026 results (BusinessWire, Aug 5) showed adjusted operating earnings of $2.55/share versus $1.91 a year earlier, GAAP EPS of $1.42 (down from $2.67, reflecting mark-to-market items), $7.5B in operating revenue, and full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance raised to $11.50-$12.50/share following the $26.6B Calpine acquisition. The company signed 920 MW of new long-term power purchase agreements including 176 MW with Walmart, secured regulatory approval to transfer capacity rights to the Crane Clean Energy Center (targeting a 2027 restart), and filed license-renewal applications for two New York nuclear units through 2049. Analyst consensus (StockAnalysis.com forecast page) is Buy across 22 analysts, average target $348.30 (~21% above Wednesday's close), median $350.50, range $290-$441. Broader market context for Thursday morning: Yahoo Finance's Sept 3 live blog has S&P 500 futures +0.11%, Dow futures +0.23%, Russell 2000 futures -0.09%, WTI crude near $91/barrel after a three-day rally (up from Wednesday's $89.58 low), Brent below $96, and President Trump saying renewed Iran strikes would be "short-lived"; TheStreet's Sept 3 headline notes the Nasdaq climbing as Treasury yields pull back.
(2) Market regime: CEG sits at the intersection of two stories that are currently pulling in different directions, and Thursday's price action shows the tension directly. The longer story is the AI/data-center power-demand thesis: CEG has spent 2026 signing long-term power purchase agreements (Walmart, prior CyrusOne and Microsoft deals cited in multiple Yahoo Finance pieces), closed the transformative Calpine acquisition, and is restarting the Crane plant specifically to serve that demand - a structural bid that has kept analysts at a Buy consensus with roughly 20% average upside even after a strong run. That thesis got a fresh tailwind Wednesday: as the broader market's rate-hike anxiety eased on a soft ADP print and falling yields, capital-intensive, long-duration names like CEG rallied hard (+3.47%), consistent with how a 1.12-beta but rate-sensitive utility-cum-power-infrastructure stock should trade when discount-rate pressure lifts. The shorter story is Thursday's reversal: CEG is down almost a full point premarket-into-open while the broader index futures are modestly positive and yields are reportedly still easing - a genuine divergence from the market that most plausibly reads as digestion or profit-taking after a nearly 3.5% one-day gain that pushed RSI to 67, rather than fresh negative information, since I found no CEG-specific news dated today. Oil ticking back up toward $91 WTI amid renewed Iran-strike rhetoric is a wildcard: it can support the power-demand/energy-security narrative that has driven this stock's re-rating all year, or it can feed the same inflation/yield anxiety that pressured markets earlier in the week - the relationship is not clean enough to lean on for one session.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $287.17, with a slight downward skew reflecting Thursday's already-visible weakness relative to the broader tape, but kept fairly narrow because the divergence looks more like mean-reversion after a large one-day move than the start of a new trend. CEG's realized volatility running into this week includes a +3.47% day, and a 1.12 beta on a stock that has shown outsized single-day moves around news and macro shifts suggests a one-day standard deviation in the 2.5-3.5% range is reasonable even without a specific catalyst. The band is $278.00 to $298.50, or roughly -3.2% to +4.0% from the anchor. The lower bound sits a little below the $280.31 implied Tuesday close (290.04 - 9.73) and comfortably above the 50-day moving average of $266.03, which would require a much larger move to reach. The upper bound sits just above the 200-day moving average of $296.62, which acted as resistance in the stated (if internally inconsistent) day-range data and is a natural level for the stock to test if Wednesday's rally resumes.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Nothing CEG-specific is scheduled that I could find - no earnings (Q2 was reported Aug 5, per BusinessWire, with Q3 not yet dated in my search results), no confirmed analyst actions dated today. The relevant calendar items are macro: Thursday brings initial jobless claims and the July trade balance at 8:30 AM ET (per the week-ahead calendar referenced in market coverage), both already released by the window start, plus ISM Services at 10:00 AM ET, which lands right around or just after the window opens and is flagged as market-moving on several economic calendars this week. As a long-duration, capital-intensive name, CEG is more sensitive than most to how that print resolves the rate-hike debate. Beyond that, Friday's August payrolls report is the week's dominant event and sits just outside this window but will shape positioning through Thursday's close. Oil-price and Iran-related headlines remain a background risk that could move energy-adjacent names like CEG in either direction.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest case against reading today's move as simple digestion is that it could instead be the start of a real pullback: RSI at 67.27 after a 3.47% single-day gain is a legitimate overbought signal, and if ISM Services or other data reignites the hike narrative that pressured markets earlier this week, a long-duration name like CEG would likely give back Wednesday's gain and then some, especially since the stock is still trading below its 200-day moving average of $296.62, meaning the medium-term trend is not unambiguously bullish. Conversely, the case for continuation is that nothing in the fundamental picture changed - the data-center power-demand thesis and the Calpine-driven earnings raise are intact, analyst targets sit well above current levels, and Thursday's early weakness on a day when the broader market and yields are moving favorably could simply be profit-taking that resolves higher by the close. My call would be invalidated on the downside by a break below the $280 area with volume well above the 2.25M average, which would suggest the divergence from the broader market is more than noise; it would be invalidated on the upside by a reclaim of $296-297 (the 200-day average), which would say Wednesday's rally is resuming in earnest.
(6) Confidence: 42%. I have set the shortest horizons to NEUTRAL because the signal is genuinely mixed at the open - CEG diverging from a modestly positive broader tape after a large prior-day gain, with no company-specific news to explain either the Wednesday rally's exact trigger or Thursday's pullback, leaves me without a reliable edge on the next few hours. I lean MILD BULLISH over the 7-day and 30-day horizons because the structural demand story (data-center PPAs, Calpine integration, nuclear capacity extensions) and a well-above-consensus analyst target are more durable inputs than a single session's wobble, and the broader macro backdrop (easing yields per Thursday's coverage) is directionally supportive for this kind of asset if it holds. The confidence number is capped in the low 40s because I could not find a specific, dated explanation for either Wednesday's surge or Thursday's reversal, which means I am inferring mechanism (rate-sensitivity, profit-taking) rather than confirming it directly, and because a data-range inconsistency in my primary price source is a small but real reason for caution about the granular numbers, even though the price and percent-change figures cross-checked cleanly.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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