This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-05 17:08 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC, when SPY closed at $765.98, down 0.6% from $770.24 when the forecast was made. It traded between $765.15 and $769.69 along the way (-0.7% to -0.1%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-05 17:08 UTC (9/5/2026, 1:08:04 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC (9/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-08 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 74.87 elapsed hours. Timing: Weekend / holiday. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 6 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $756.00–$779.50 | -1.8% to +1.2% | 77% | $770.19 | 83.2 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $768.00–$772.00 | -0.3% to +0.2% | 95% | $770.19 | 52.1 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $762.00–$778.00 | -1.1% to +1.0% | 38% | $770.19 | 53.2 | no call |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $765.00–$778.00 | -0.7% to +1.0% | 54% | $770.41 | 31.5 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $763.00–$777.00 | -0.9% to +0.9% | 54% | $770.19 | 54.1 | no call |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | $756.00–$782.00 | -1.7% to +1.6% | 45% | $769.45 | 52.8 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-05 17:08 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 7 | — | 1 | — | 6 · 5 right | 83% (5/6) |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | 7 | — | 3 | — | 4 · 3 right | 75% (3/4) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 7 | — | 2 | 3 · 0 right | 2 · 1 right | 20% (1/5) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 7 | — | 6 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 7 | — | 7 | — | — | — |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-05 17:08 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SPY's latest completed regular session was Friday, September 4, when it closed at $770.19, down 0.39%. The U.S. equity market is closed on Saturday, September 5, so there is no regular-session SPY quote at the requested timestamp; I therefore use the latest verified close rather than presenting a stale or invented live price. Sources: Investing.com and AP. ([AP News][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: SPY remains close to its recent record area, but Friday's reversal weakened short-term momentum. The S&P 500 fell 0.38% after the employment report pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 2-year yield around 4.37%; this creates a near-term valuation headwind even though the longer-term index trend remains constructive. Source: AP and Reuters. ([AP News][1])
(3) Price range: For the next one-day market window, I estimate $756.00-$779.50. The lower side allows a meaningful retracement below Friday's close toward the recent early-September trading area, while the upper side permits a retest of the recent record zone. Because the forecast begins on a weekend, the effective tradable window is the next U.S. session, increasing sensitivity to any gap caused by weekend news.
(4) Catalysts: The strongest immediate macro influence remains Friday's employment report: August payrolls increased 162,000 versus expectations near 53,000-56,000, unemployment stayed at 4.1%, and rate-hike expectations for the September Federal Reserve meeting increased materially. The following week is dominated by inflation data, with PPI scheduled for September 10 and CPI for September 11. Sources: Reuters, MarketWatch and Kiplinger. ([Reuters][2])
(5) Counter-argument: The bearish case is that stronger labor data, higher Treasury yields and persistent energy-price pressure could keep equity valuations under pressure. The strongest bullish counterpoint is that Friday's S&P 500 decline was modest despite the large macro repricing, while the index remains close to its record level; softer inflation next week could quickly reverse some of the rate pressure. Sources: Reuters and AP. ([Reuters][2])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 77%. I favor a mildly bearish one-day bias because the latest confirmed session showed a reversal from elevated levels and the macro catalyst increased expected policy tightness. I avoid a stronger bearish signal because SPY remains structurally resilient near record highs, and the next session will incorporate weekend information that cannot be observed at the Saturday timestamp.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data retrieval and sources: I retrieved live market data from Barchart and Stockanalysis showing SPY closed at $770.19 on Friday, September 4, 2026, with an intraday high of $772.87 and low of $769.00.
(2) Market regime: The 1-day forecast window spans from Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon. As the primary US equities market is closed for the weekend, the spot price of the ETF will not experience active daily trading volume or directional shifts.
(3) Price range justification: Anchoring from the Friday close of $770.19, I am setting a very tight 1-day range between $768.00 and $772.00. The spot ETF price will remain static during the weekend, though limited out-of-hours prints or implied futures pricing could reflect minor variance.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: There are no scheduled catalysts within this specific 1-day window, as it falls entirely over a weekend. Furthermore, Monday, September 7 is US Labor Day, meaning regular trading will remain closed until Tuesday.
(5) Counter-arguments and invalidation: The only factor that could invalidate this tight range would be significant weekend headline risk-such as an unexpected geopolitical event or macroeconomic shock-that causes equity futures to gap dramatically when they open on Sunday evening.
(6) Confidence assessment: My confidence is 95% because the spot market for the SPY ETF is closed during the entire 1-day forecast window, ensuring the price will remain effectively unchanged from Friday's closing level.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $770.19 (down 0.39% from Thursday’s $773.17), day range $769.00-$772.87, volume ~34M, per FinanceCharts, Macroaxis and Investing.com. Markets are closed for the weekend; this is the last official print. 52-week range $629.28-$779.37.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Mild pullback after Thursday’s rebound, with SPY consolidating near recent highs. Price action reflects a balanced risk environment with no strong directional momentum heading into the weekend.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $770.19 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $4-8 and typical ATR support a next-session window of roughly ±1%. Lower bound near $762 allows for a modest extension of the pullback; upper bound near $778 covers a retest of the Thursday high area. Range is roughly balanced given the neutral close.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Markets reopen Monday 7 Sep. Overnight global developments, residual positioning or any early-week economic prints could influence the open. No major high-impact U.S. data typically dominates the immediate next session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off open could push SPY below $762; stronger risk appetite could drive a break above $778. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the neutral stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed, yet weekend gap risk and single-day forecasts remain noise-dominated without near-term catalysts; moderate-to-low conviction is appropriate.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-05 17:08 UTC), the US equity market is closed for the weekend, with the last available quotes from the September 4 regular session and after-hours trading. According to Investing.com, SPY closed the regular session at $771.10, up $5.02 or +0.66%, with an after-hours quote of $770.41, down $0.69 or -0.09%. Other sources confirm the $770.41 after-hours level. I have anchored my range to the after-hours quote of $770.41, as it represents the most current available pricing at the window start. The 52-week range is $629.28-$779.37.
(2) Current market regime: SPY is trading near the upper end of its 52-week range, just below the all-time high of $779.37 set on August 13, 2026. The ETF has risen approximately 0.41% over the past week, though it has experienced a 5-day net outflow of $1.03 billion. The broader uptrend remains intact, with the ETF up roughly 13.4% year-to-date. However, the market is digesting a stronger-than-expected August jobs report, which has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to approximately 58-61%. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen accordingly, putting modest pressure on equities. The after-hours dip from $771.10 to $770.41 reflects continued caution.
(3) Price range justification: I expect SPY to trade between $765.00 and $778.00 over the next 1-day window (the next trading session on September 8, as September 7 is a US holiday). The lower bound of $765.00 is informed by the $767.16 intraday low from September 4 and the $765.71 support level identified in recent analysis, with additional cushion for potential gap-down risk over the long weekend. The upper bound of $778.00 is informed by the all-time high of $779.37 and the $777-$779 resistance zone that has capped rallies since mid-August. The range is roughly symmetric around the current price because the market is in a consolidation phase over the holiday weekend, with no major catalysts expected until the September 8 session.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The immediate 1-day window (September 5 to September 8) spans a long US holiday weekend, with markets closed on September 7 for Labor Day. No major U.S. economic data releases are scheduled for September 8. However, the market will continue to digest the August jobs report and its implications for the September 16 FOMC meeting. The key catalyst to watch is the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due September 11, which will be the final inflation data before the Fed decision. Over the weekend, geopolitical risk from US-Iran tensions and elevated oil prices remain in the background.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that SPY remains in a strong uptrend, with Q2 earnings growth tracking near +32% and the index trading at 19.6 times forward earnings. The September 4 rally of 0.66% suggests buyers are stepping in at current levels. If no negative developments emerge over the long weekend, SPY could gap higher on September 8 and challenge the $779.37 all-time high. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions escalate or Fed hawkish repricing intensifies, SPY could gap lower and test the $765 support level. A break below $765.00 would invalidate my neutral-to-bullish short-term view and suggest a move toward the $760 area.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 54%, reflecting a market in a consolidation phase over a long holiday weekend with limited price discovery. The 1-day window is effectively a gap-risk assessment, as the next trading session begins on September 8. I am more confident in the $765.00-$778.00 range than in the precise path within it, and I acknowledge that a gap in either direction is possible depending on weekend developments in geopolitics, oil prices, and Fed commentary.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Retrieved live quote SPY closed Sep 4 2026 at $770.19 via MacroTrends and StockAnalysis live price page showing At close: Sep 4 2026 4pm EDT and NYSEARCA: SPY 770.19. Also INDmoney intraday snapshot Sep 5 at 2:16pm IST showing range around $770.19. For catalyst context, searched jobs report: September S&P 500 E-Mini futures up +0.07% after jobs report as market reacted to slower hiring reinforcing Fed cut expectation, with consensus expecting ~50k payrolls up from 22k in August. All-time high noted $777.88-$779.37 on Aug 13 2026.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: SPY is 1.2% below all-time high, in primary uptrend but consolidating around $770 after pullback from $779.49 noted in TradingView commentary. Market pricing Fed cut in September; softer labor supports lower rates, lifting equity multiples but with growth concerns. No breakdown in daily structure.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $770.19 close. Used recent daily range ~$767.90 to $774.03 from Sep 4 plan notes and implied daily ATR ~0.8-1.0%. For 1-day horizon Sep 5 after-hours into Sep 6 (weekend, so effectively next print is Monday Sep 8), set lower bound $763 (~0.93% below) to cover gap-fill to Sep 3 low area, upper bound $777 (~0.88% above) to cover retest of all-time high zone $777.88. Asymmetric slight upside bias given futures bounce post-jobs.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Sep 5 US August/September payrolls release is the window catalyst - already released pre-market Sep 5 per Nasdaq futures rally note. No earnings for SPY itself. Fed blackout approaching September FOMC (mid-September). Market closed weekend, so 1-day window captures after-hours reaction only, no new scheduled macro until ISM/services next week.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is hot revision or wage growth forcing Fed to hold, or risk-off on soft payrolls signaling recession (S&P falling 141 points intraday on prior similar release noted in search). Invalidation would be SPY printing below $760 on heavy volume or above $780 breaking all-time high on weekend futures, both outside historical daily volatility.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects honest short-window noise: 1-day SPY direction is near coin-flip after jobs, futures +0.07% is weak signal, and weekend closure removes trading. Live price retrieval gives high confidence in anchor, but directional confidence low, hence neutral to mild bullish tilt rather than strong call.
claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5)
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: SPY's last regular-session close was Friday September 4 at $770.19, down 0.39%, in a $769.00-$772.87 range on 34.1M shares. Extended-hours trading ran to its 8:00pm EDT finish at $769.45 (-0.10%), and I re-checked the quote page during this window on September 5 to confirm no newer print exists - it does not (stockanalysis.com). So my anchor is roughly 21 hours old by clock time, but it is nonetheless the most recent transaction in existence for this security, which is why I am labelling access live rather than partial. The 52-week range is $629.28-$779.37, putting SPY about 1.3% under its 52-week high.
(2) Current market regime: a tightening-risk tape that keeps declining to break. August payrolls printed 162,000 against consensus near 55,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1% (UPI, CNBC), front-end Treasury yields set 52-week highs intraday Friday (2Y 4.374%, 5Y 4.545% per TheStreet), and the S&P still closed essentially flat at -0.08% with the Nasdaq up 0.12% (Yahoo Finance). September rate-hike pricing remains genuinely contested across sources - near 50% per TheStreet after Governor Waller's dovish remarks, 60.2% from 49.4% per 247wallst.com on the payrolls beat - and that disagreement is itself the regime. Underneath the flat index, dispersion was violent: money rotated into AI infrastructure (SOXX +3%, Intel +4%) while single-name misses were destroyed (Lululemon -18%, Guidewire -22.2%).
(3) Price range justification: the structural fact here is that nothing can trade inside this window. It runs Saturday 1:08pm ET to Sunday 1:08pm ET - cash markets closed, extended hours long finished, and CME equity futures do not reopen until Sunday 6:00pm ET, roughly five hours after this window expires. Read at window close, SPY is $769.45 and can be nothing else. The band $756.00 to $782.00 is sized instead for the next print that will actually exist - Tuesday September 8, since Monday September 7 is a market holiday (financecalendar.com) - using SPY's recent sub-1% daily ranges plus a three-day weekend gap allowance. It is close to symmetric, about 1.75% below and 1.63% above, and I am placing it that way deliberately: I hold no directional view across a period in which no shares change hands.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: none whatsoever. There are no scheduled releases on a Saturday or Sunday morning and no market open to price anything into. The calendar resumes only after this window closes - Monday September 7 is Labor Day with markets shut and no reports, Tuesday brings NFIB Small Business Optimism at 6:00am ET and Consumer Credit at 3:00pm ET, Thursday September 10 carries PPI and jobless claims at 8:30am ET, and Friday September 11 delivers August CPI at 8:30am ET with University of Michigan sentiment at 10:00am ET (Kiplinger economic calendar). CPI is the decisive event because it is the last major inflation input before the September 16 FOMC.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: on the near horizons there is no argument to have - a closed market cannot move, and the only genuine risk I carry is mis-anchoring if my $769.45 print were wrong, which I mitigated by verifying it a second time today. On the 7d and 30d calls, the bear case has been repeatedly wrong at exactly this juncture: Friday delivered a large hawkish surprise and the index absorbed it fully. Those calls are invalidated if CPI prints at or below consensus and hike odds retreat, or if SPY clears $779.37 on volume beforehand. My lean rests on position rather than momentum - an index 1.3% from its high with a live hike debate has further to fall on a hawkish surprise than to rise on a benign one - which is an asymmetry argument, not a claim that anything is deteriorating.
(6) Confidence justification: 45%, blending two very different kinds of certainty. The 1h, 4h and 1d NEUTRAL signals are near-certain by construction rather than judgment - no session exists inside this window, so I would put very high confidence on an unchanged price. The 7d and 30d MILD BEARISH readings are much weaker: a modest skew derived from an inflation binary and the September 16 meeting, made against a tape that has repeatedly refused to sell off on hawkish news. It sits a point above yesterday's equivalent call only because the window is now entirely enclosed by the weekend, leaving even less ambiguity on the short horizons, and because I confirmed the anchor twice.
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