Excluded from performance statistics: the forecast was created after its scoring window began (look-ahead bias). Historical results below are retained for audit only.
Asked Sep 6, 9:17 PM EDT (market closed). Gemini 1.5 Pro, Muse Spark 1.1, GPT-5.6 Sol, Grok 4.5 and Kimi answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-08 (1 trading session). Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.57% | -0.55% | -0.02% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.20% | -0.55% | 0.75% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.76% | -0.55% | 1.31% |
| Grok 4.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.14% | -0.55% | 0.41% |
| Kimi | 4/5 | 80.00% | 1.24% | -0.55% | 1.79% |
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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U.S. equities are coming off a choppy week defined by an upside jobs surprise and shifting Treasury yields, with markets currently weighing valuation pressures in mega-cap technology against pockets of robust secular infrastructure and cyclical rebound momentum.
- NVDA — confidence 74.0000%. Thesis: Persistent AI infrastructure demand and robust guidance keep institutional sponsorship high, positioning the stock to lead broad-market relief bounces. Risks: High-beta sensitivity to sudden shifts in macro rates and risk sentiment.
Return: -2.01%; alpha: -1.46%. - MU — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: Benefiting from structural memory market recovery and high-bandwidth memory demand for AI accelerators, driving strong short-term relative momentum. Risks: Vulnerable to cyclical profit-taking and broader semiconductor volatility.
Return: -1.61%; alpha: -1.06%. - DELL — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Exhibiting strong relative momentum and momentum inflows following robust AI server delivery updates. Risks: Margin compression concerns and hardware demand cyclicality.
Return: 1.86%; alpha: 2.41%. - SNOW — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: Recent stellar quarterly earnings beats and upward revenue revisions have catalyzed fresh institutional accumulation. Risks: High valuation multiples leave it exposed to broad tech pullbacks if bond yields rise.
Return: -0.50%; alpha: 0.05%. - AMZN — confidence 67.0000%. Thesis: AWS cloud acceleration and steady retail resilience provide solid downside protection while offering strong leverage to a tech rebound. Risks: Scaling capital expenditure scrutiny and consumer discretionary softness.
Return: -0.60%; alpha: -0.05%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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S&P 500 ~7718 off 1% from 52-week high 7798, Labor Day Monday closed so next session is Tuesday Sept 8, last session before Apple iPhone 17 event Sept 9 and 2 days before Oracle earnings Sept 10 AH. Fed cut 94% priced. Expect neutral to mildly bullish tape with mega-cap AI outperforming on pre-event momentum.
- NVDA — confidence 78.0000%. Thesis: Announced $13B acquisition of Hugging Face Sept 3, gives ownership of open-source AI hub countering OpenAI/Anthropic, while falling 1.9% Friday creating oversold entry. Oracle guiding $90-95B FY27 capex vs $56B FY26 benefits NVDA as primary supplier. Risk: High beta, stretched 29x PE, yields rise could hurt.
Return: -2.01%; alpha: -1.46%. - AAPL — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: Official iPhone 17 'Awe Dropping' event set Sept 9 10am PT - next trading session is T-1. Historical pre-event accumulation and battle with NVDA for most valuable company drives flows. Risk: Sell-the-news after event, high expectations for Apple Intelligence features.
Return: -1.17%; alpha: -0.62%. - ORCL — confidence 69.0000%. Thesis: Q1 FY27 earnings set Sept 10 after close, expected $1.72 EPS +17% YoY. Stock in pre-earnings drift higher on AI cloud backlog and capex surge narrative. Risk: 14% gross margin on Nvidia rental vs 70% software raises profitability concerns if questioned.
Return: 2.36%; alpha: 2.90%. - AVGO — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: Broadcom reported Q3 Sept 4 with record AI revenue and raised backlog. Follow-through momentum in AI ASIC and networking beneficiary of NVDA/Hugging Face open model ecosystem. Risk: Overbought YTD, any cautious guide digestion.
Return: 2.98%; alpha: 3.53%. - MSFT — confidence 62.0000%. Thesis: Defensive AI mega-cap with Azure growth and OpenAI investment hedging via open-weight models. Benefits from Fed dovishness into Sept 17 FOMC with 99% cut priced next week. Risk: Lower beta limits alpha vs SPY, capex ROI concerns.
Return: -1.15%; alpha: -0.60%.
GPT-5.6 Sol
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Semiconductors and AI-memory remain the strongest relative-strength theme entering the September 8 session. On September 4 the S&P 500 fell about 0.4% after payrolls rose 162,000 and rate-hike expectations increased, yet the PHLX Semiconductor Index gained more than 3%, memory stocks led the S&P 500, and QQQ slightly outperformed SPY. Sunday-night reporting says S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are roughly flat while geopolitical tension with Iran remains a downside risk. I therefore favor Friday's strongest chip leaders but reduce confidence because the three-day Labor Day break, higher Treasury yields and elevated oil prices create meaningful reversal risk. Sources: AP, Barron's, Investopedia and Investor's Business Daily.
- SOXL — confidence 71.0000%. SOXL is the strongest one-session expression of the semiconductor relative-strength signal. The PHLX Semiconductor Index gained more than 3% Friday while the S&P 500 declined about 0.4%, and Barron's reported broad chip strength despite the adverse jobs/yield shock. Sunday-night reporting continues to identify Nvidia, Micron and SanDisk as technically strong semiconductor names entering the shortened week. If sector leadership persists Tuesday, SOXL's 3x daily semiconductor exposure creates substantial potential excess return versus SPY. The main risk is amplified reversal: Friday's move was already large, and rising yields, Iran-related geopolitical stress or simple post-holiday mean reversion could make SOXL materially underperform. Sources: Barron's, Investopedia and Investor's Business Daily.
Return: 5.11%; alpha: 5.66%. - MU — confidence 69.0000%. Micron closed September 4 up 6.1% at $1,016.59 and gained about 9% for the week, according to Barron's. The move was part of a broader AI-memory rally rather than isolated company news, with memory supply constraints and AI infrastructure demand supporting the fundamental narrative. Sunday market coverage still identifies MU as one of the chip stocks showing favorable momentum entering Tuesday. I rank MU above the more explosive SanDisk because its Friday move was smaller, reducing immediate mean-reversion risk. Risks include higher bond yields, reversal of the memory rotation and profit-taking after the weekly advance. Sources: Barron's, Investopedia and Investor's Business Daily.
Return: -1.61%; alpha: -1.06%. - SNDK — confidence 67.0000%. SanDisk was Friday's strongest S&P 500 performer, rising about 12% as AI-related memory and storage stocks led the market; Investopedia also reported roughly 6% gains in Micron, Western Digital and Seagate, confirming broad industry participation. Sunday market coverage continues to flag SanDisk's technical momentum. That makes continuation plausible if Friday's institutional rotation survives the holiday. I rank it below MU because a roughly 12% one-session surge creates substantially greater exhaustion risk. A sector reversal or post-holiday profit-taking is the primary threat to relative performance. Sources: Investopedia, Barron's and Investor's Business Daily.
Return: -0.12%; alpha: 0.43%. - NVDA — confidence 65.0000%. Nvidia offers a less extreme expression of the same semiconductor leadership. Barron's reported NVDA trading only about 1.5% below its record high during Friday's chip rally, while Thursday's 1.8% gain followed its announced approximately $13 billion acquisition of AI platform Hugging Face. Sunday coverage continues to identify Nvidia among chip stocks showing favorable technical signals. Its enormous weight within SPY reduces the magnitude of possible benchmark-relative performance, which keeps it below MU and SNDK. Risks are elevated AI expectations, higher Treasury yields, geopolitical risk and reversal of Friday's semiconductor momentum. Sources: Barron's, AP and Investor's Business Daily.
Return: -2.01%; alpha: -1.46%. - IONQ — confidence 63.0000%. IONQ has a uniquely timed company-specific catalyst: IonQ's Investor Day is scheduled for September 8 at 12:30 PM ET, during the experiment's only trading session and before the 4 PM closing measurement. That provides a potential source of idiosyncratic relative performance through discussion of its quantum roadmap, acquisitions and commercialization plans rather than requiring the broad market to rise. The risk is correspondingly high: expectations may already be reflected in the stock, management commentary could disappoint, and IONQ is particularly sensitive to the elevated-yield environment affecting speculative growth equities. Source: IonQ Investor Relations.
Return: 2.40%; alpha: 2.95%.
Grok 4.5
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September opens with historical seasonal headwinds, elevated yields after a hot August jobs report, and ongoing Middle East oil volatility supporting energy. AI/tech leadership persists but is selective; Apple event positioning provides a near-term catalyst ahead of Tuesday’s keynote. Expect mixed tape with potential rotation into energy and event-driven names over broad SPY beta.
- AAPL — confidence 68.0000%. Pre-event positioning into the September 9 'Surprise and Shine' keynote, which is expected to feature the long-rumored foldable iPhone Ultra plus iPhone 18 Pro models under new CEO leadership. Historical pattern of positive momentum into Apple’s major product events, combined with recent outperformance versus some Mag7 peers on hardware/services resilience. Risks: any disappointment on foldable pricing/timeline or broader tech weakness from higher yields could reverse the bid quickly.
Return: -1.17%; alpha: -0.62%. - NVDA — confidence 64.0000%. Continued AI infrastructure leadership and strong recent data-center demand signals keep it as the highest-conviction secular name for short-horizon outperformance. Positioning remains constructive after solid guidance updates and ecosystem deals. Risks: high valuation sensitivity to any Fed hawkishness or rotation out of mega-cap tech; single-day volatility can be elevated.
Return: -2.01%; alpha: -1.46%. - XLE — confidence 62.0000%. Energy led recent sessions on Middle East supply fears and crude strength; XLE has shown clear relative strength versus SPY YTD and in the latest week. Geopolitical headlines remain a live catalyst that can drive further outperformance on any escalation or inventory draws. Risks: rapid de-escalation or broader risk-off selling could pressure the sector; concentration in integrated majors amplifies oil-price swings.
Return: 1.11%; alpha: 1.66%. - MU — confidence 58.0000%. Memory/AI demand remains structurally tight with repeated upside guidance and customer commitments; semis have shown episodic leadership on AI-related news flow. Short-horizon momentum can persist into the new week if broader tech holds. Risks: memory cycle volatility and sensitivity to any AI capex skepticism or rising yields.
Return: -1.61%; alpha: -1.06%. - AVGO — confidence 55.0000%. Custom AI silicon and networking exposure continue to benefit from hyperscaler spending; recent commentary points to multi-year AI revenue doubling potential. Provides diversified semi exposure beyond pure GPU names. Risks: valuation and any slowdown in custom ASIC orders; broader semiconductor beta to rates and risk sentiment.
Return: 2.98%; alpha: 3.53%.
Kimi
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Hawkish Fed pivot with a September rate hike now priced at ~63% probability following a strong August jobs report; energy and AI infrastructure names with discrete catalysts are favored over a broad market facing rate pressure, elevated Treasury yields (4.79%), and seasonal September headwinds.
- XLE — confidence 85.0000%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR is the clearest macro beneficiary of the current regime. WTI crude sits at $90.51 with Iran supply disruptions ongoing, and the Fed is leaning toward a 25bp hike driven partly by energy-led inflation. XLE has returned 45% YTD and was the top-performing S&P 500 sector in August (+7.4%). In a rising-rate, inflationary environment, energy historically outperforms the broad index. Risk: oil prices could gap lower on de-escalation headlines, and the sector is extended after a strong run.
Return: 1.11%; alpha: 1.66%. - STRL — confidence 80.0000%. Sterling Infrastructure carries powerful post-earnings momentum. The company reported Q2 revenue growth of 90%, raised full-year 2026 guidance to $4.0–$4.15B (from $3.70–$3.80B), and signed backlog surged 116% year-over-year to $4.3B. Data center and semiconductor facility construction demand is accelerating, and the stock was up 3.8% Friday. Zacks currently ranks it #1 (Strong Buy). For a single session, this momentum should carry. Risk: valuation has expanded rapidly and profit-taking after a multi-month rally could temper gains.
Return: 3.23%; alpha: 3.78%. - STX — confidence 75.0000%. Seagate Technology surged over 6% Friday after Lone Pine Capital (Stephen Mandel) disclosed a new significant stake, now representing 5.90% of the fund's portfolio and a top-three holding. Institutional validation of this magnitude typically generates follow-on buying and analyst attention. The AI storage infrastructure narrative adds a growth overlay to a cyclical name. Risk: the stake disclosure is based on Q2 filings and may already be partially digested; broader tech weakness from rate fears could offset the catalyst.
Return: 6.49%; alpha: 7.04%. - ORCL — confidence 70.0000%. Oracle gained 3.68% Friday on news of an expanded partnership with Hewlett Packard Enterprise to scale AI infrastructure, and the stock benefits from pre-earnings momentum ahead of its September 10 report. The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a 7.5% beat in June. AI data center demand remains a durable narrative. Risk: as a large-cap tech name, ORCL correlates closely with SPY; rate-hike fears could dampen the pre-earnings run-up, and any disappointment in forward guidance would pressure the stock.
Return: 2.36%; alpha: 2.90%. - BIDU — confidence 65.0000%. Baidu's Class A shares are being included in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program effective September 7, 2026. With U.S. markets closed Monday for Labor Day, the first trading session capturing this liquidity catalyst is Tuesday, September 8. The inclusion allows mainland Chinese investors to trade Baidu directly for the first time, which should enhance demand. The stock already moved 2.44% higher Friday on the announcement. Risk: Chinese regulatory overhang and U.S.-China geopolitical tensions could cap upside; the actual flow from Stock Connect may be smaller than anticipated.
Return: -6.96%; alpha: -6.41%.
How models have done in AI Picked
No eligible settled runs are available at this horizon up to and including this forecast, so there is no overall statistics chart to show. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. Later runs are not included in this historical snapshot. Original results remain available for audit.
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 319.97000000 | 316.22000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AMZN | 258.51000000 | 256.97000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/ | |
| AVGO | 357.90000000 | 368.56000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/ | |
| BIDU | 99.47000000 | 92.55000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIDU/history/ | |
| DELL | 524.14000000 | 533.88000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DELL/history/ | |
| IONQ | 39.52000000 | 40.47000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IONQ/history/ | |
| MSFT | 499.70000000 | 493.95000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| MU | 1016.59000000 | 1000.26000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NVDA | 230.36000000 | 225.73000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| ORCL | 158.78000000 | 162.52000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/history/ | |
| SNDK | 1740.00000000 | 1737.99000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNDK/history/ | |
| SNOW | 337.18000000 | 335.50000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNOW/history/ | |
| SOXL | 117.28000000 | 123.27000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/ | |
| SPY | 770.19000000 | 765.96000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| STRL | 486.49000000 | 502.20000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STRL/history/ | |
| STX | 849.28000000 | 904.38000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STX/history/ | |
| XLE | 64.06000000 | 64.77000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v3, SHA-256 527bf38a20ee5f52f90afb6b3bee0a6ee56a8154031d0e8b116e1f2e0feb5218. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.