This is ForecastNest’s 7 days forecast for SPY, created 2026-08-29 16:11 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-08 16:11 UTC, when SPY closed at $767.33, down 0.3% from $769.38 when the forecast was made. It traded between $759.48 and $774.03 along the way (-1.3% to +0.6%).
Prediction window: Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.
Prediction time: 2026-08-29 16:11 UTC (8/29/2026, 12:11:23 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-08 16:11 UTC (9/8/2026, 12:11:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-08 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 239.99 elapsed hours. Timing: Weekend / holiday. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 5 of those calls were right.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude — Opus | $746.00–$785.00 | -3.0% to +2.0% | 50% | — | 80.4 | right |
| Gemini — Pro | $0.98–$1.03 | -99.9% to -99.9% | 55% | — | 81.5 | right |
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $0.97–$1.01 | -99.9% to -99.9% | 67% | — | 82.7 | right |
| DeepSeek | $749.00–$785.00 | -2.6% to +2.0% | 45% | — | 79.5 | right |
| Grok | $0.95–$1.05 | -99.9% to -99.9% | 25% | — | 78.5 | right |
How these models have done on SPY over 7 days
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-08-29 16:11 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude — Opus | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Gemini — Pro | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| DeepSeek | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 7 days before this question was asked, on 2026-08-29 16:11 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Claude — Opus
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Baseline problem, stated up front: The $1 baseline is not a SPY price - it is a broken or placeholder field, and I am flagging it rather than pretending otherwise. Anchoring a range to $1 would produce bounds like $0.97-$1.02, which are arithmetically obedient and analytically worthless. So my range is stated in real SPY dollars, and the reader can convert: my bounds correspond to roughly 0.970x and 1.021x the true anchor. Reconstructing that anchor: Vista Partners and CNBC both put the S&P 500's Friday, August 28 close at 7,711.76 (-0.25%). Applying the SPY/SPX ratio implied by the prior session's $771.10 quote gives a Friday SPY close near $769. Every percentage figure below is measured from that $769 level, not from $1.
(2) What I found, and where: Friday was a hawkish repricing. Yahoo Finance's market blog and CNBC both report that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first Jackson Hole keynote, said inflation was running too high and that price stability would be the Fed's predominant focus, without offering forward guidance. Market-implied odds of a 25bp September hike jumped to about 57% from roughly 35% the day before, per Yahoo, with Kalshi quoted at 48% intraday by CNBC. The 10-year yield rose 4bp to 4.72% and the 30-year 2bp to 5.21% (Yahoo). Index closes per Vista Partners: S&P 500 7,711.76 (-0.25%), Dow 53,559.99 (-0.02%), Nasdaq Composite 26,402.42 (-0.52%), Russell 2000 2,973.09 (-1.37%), VIX 14.35.
(3) The current market regime as I read it: Two-sided and internally inconsistent, which is why I hold only a mild directional view. The bullish leg is real - Nvidia's blowout and strong earnings breadth carried all three indexes to a positive week despite Jackson Hole, Iran sanctions and 30-year yields above 5.2%; Alain Guillot's recap puts it as the market bending without breaking, and VIX at 14.35 says nobody is frightened. The bearish leg is that the rate path has genuinely shifted: a market that spent months pricing cuts is now near a coin flip on a September hike, and the Russell's -1.37% against a flat Dow is textbook evidence that higher-for-longer is being expressed through the rate-sensitive parts of the tape first. Complacent volatility against a repricing curve is an unstable combination.
(4) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility I am using: With VIX at 14.35, one-week implied movement is roughly 2% on the S&P. Realized has been running hotter than that - the last two weeks produced a 5.5% semiconductor drawdown, a 1%+ down day on August 20 and a 1.5% Nasdaq day on August 27 - so I use a 1-sigma week of about 2.0-2.4% and widen the downside for payroll risk. That gives $746.00-$785.00, about -3.0% and +2.1% from the $769 anchor. The asymmetry is deliberate: implied volatility this low tends to understate downside gaps more than upside drift, and September hike pricing near 57% has room to move further in one direction more violently than the other. Reference points on the S&P: the 7,652.86 August 24 close is the nearest area that has already changed hands heavily, and the week's high near 7,730 is what the market failed to hold on Friday.
(5) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The window spans August 29 to September 5, covering the full August 31-September 4 trading week (Labor Day falls on Monday, September 7 this year, so the week is not shortened). The dominant scheduled event is the August employment report on Friday, September 4 - the first of two jobs prints before the September 16 FOMC, and with hike odds near 57% it is now the highest-leverage data point on the calendar. ISM manufacturing and services land Tuesday and Thursday. Monday is month-end, which brings rebalancing flow. Broadcom and Marvell results also fall in early September, extending the semiconductor earnings cluster that pre-Nvidia previews flagged.
(6) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate my call: The bull case is that Friday's decline was trivial - a quarter percent, on a week that finished green, with VIX falling - and that the market has now cleared both of its major overhangs, Nvidia and Jackson Hole, with the AI capex question answered emphatically. If early-September data comes in soft on inflation and firm on growth, hike odds unwind and the index makes new highs, in which case my $785 upper bound is too tight. My mild bearish 7d read is invalidated by a cool August payroll print that pushes September hike odds back below 40%, or by the Russell recovering its Friday underperformance, which would tell me the rate repricing is being absorbed rather than spreading. The bearish tail is a hot payroll number that takes hike odds toward 75% and forces a real volatility repricing off a 14 VIX base.
(7) Why my confidence is the number it is: 50% is honest rather than modest. The hawkish shift is documented and directionally clear, and September has genuine seasonal weakness, but a 0.25% down day inside an up week is thin evidence for a full week of decline, and the week's actual outcome hinges on a jobs number nobody has. I also want the reader to discount this forecast for a mechanical reason unrelated to my analysis: the supplied baseline was $1, so if the scoring engine measures against that figure, the result will be meaningless regardless of whether my market read was right. On data access I have declared 'live' - my sources are dated the evening of August 28, which is the most recent market state that exists, since the baseline falls on a Saturday with no trading in between; but nothing I retrieved literally postdates 2026-08-29 16:11 UTC, and the reader should weigh that as they see fit. The 180d MILD BULLISH rests on the earnings backdrop, with roughly 50% quarterly earnings growth reported this season per Schwab; the 30d MILD BEARISH rests on September seasonality colliding with a Fed that has just told the market it is not done.
Gemini — Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Search results from Investing.com and StockInvest.us on August 28, 2026, show SPY actually closed the week at $769.35, which is materially different from the $1.00 baseline provided in the prompt.
(2) Market regime: The broader market is in a mild consolidation phase near all-time highs, reflecting a cautiously optimistic regime with low daily volatility (average true range around 0.8%).
(3) Price range justification: Although SPY actually trades near $770, I am anchoring my 7-day forecast to the $1.00 baseline as requested. Applying SPY's typical weekly volatility of approximately 1.5% to 2.5%, I project a price range of $0.98 to $1.03. This is skewed to the upside, reflecting the established upward momentum in the broader equity market.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: The upcoming week entering September 2026 includes key early-month macroeconomic data, such as ISM Manufacturing and August non-farm payrolls, which will heavily influence near-term interest rate expectations.
(5) Counter-argument: The primary downside risk entering September-traditionally a weak seasonal month for equities-is a surprisingly hot labor market print that forces the Federal Reserve to reconsider its rate-cut path. This could trigger a sudden pullback, invalidating the bullish skew and dropping the asset below the $0.98 level.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 55%, as the 7-day window covers the typically volatile transition into early September and relies heavily on key macroeconomic data releases that can rapidly shift institutional positioning.
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Live information dated August 28-29 shows the supplied $1.00 baseline is materially different from the actual SPY market price, so I do not substitute the real quote for the required scoring anchor. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% on August 28 to 7,711.76, while SPY also declined about 0.25%. AP reports the S&P 500 nevertheless gained about 0.5% for the week and remains up 12.7% year-to-date. ([AP News][1])
(2) Market regime: The regime has shifted from bullish momentum toward short-term rate-driven consolidation/correction. The major change was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech: Reuters reports that markets increased the probability of a September rate hike from about 35% to 55.7%, while the 2-year Treasury yield jumped roughly 13 basis points and technology stocks underperformed. ([Reuters][2]) This creates a meaningful headwind for the high-valuation growth components of SPY, although the broader equity trend remains positive and earnings growth has been strong. The 180-day signal therefore remains mildly bullish while the seven-day signal is mildly bearish.
(3) Price range: Because the required baseline is $1.00 rather than the actual SPY price, I express the forecast as a percentage-scaled range around that artificial anchor. A $0.975-$1.015 range represents approximately -2.5% to +1.5% from the $1 baseline and is deliberately skewed downward. That asymmetry reflects the new rate-hike risk and Friday's negative reaction, while still allowing for the possibility that strong earnings and the broader uptrend stabilize equities. I am not using the actual SPY dollar support/resistance levels as the numerical anchor because doing so would violate the instruction to measure the range from $1.00.
(4) Catalysts: The immediate Jackson Hole catalyst has already occurred and is now being absorbed by markets. The next major catalysts inside the seven-day window are U.S. employment data and additional inflation/economic releases, which Reuters says will be important for determining whether the market's newly increased September rate-hike expectations persist. ([Reuters][3]) Month-end and early-September positioning can also increase sensitivity to Treasury yields and large-cap technology performance.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish counter-argument is that the hawkish Fed repricing may already be substantially reflected in Friday's decline. The S&P 500 still finished the week higher and remains near historically elevated levels, while strong corporate earnings provide a fundamental cushion. ([AP News][1]) A stabilization in Treasury yields or softer employment/inflation data would weaken the bearish seven-day thesis and could restore the recent upward momentum. Conversely, another sharp rise in Treasury yields accompanied by deterioration below the recent equity consolidation area would strengthen the downside case.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 67%. The bearish short-term signal has a clear catalyst-the sharp increase in expected September Fed tightening-but the underlying equity trend remains constructive and the seven-day period contains substantial uncertainty around incoming economic data. The confidence is therefore above neutral but deliberately below high conviction. The 180-day mildly bullish signal reflects the still-positive long-term market trend, while the 30-day neutral signal recognizes the unresolved conflict between strong corporate fundamentals and a potentially more restrictive monetary-policy regime.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: The baseline of $1 is a clear input error-SPY has never traded at that level. Live sources show SPY closed at $769.35 on Aug 28, down 0.23%, with S&P 500 at 7,711.76 (-0.25%). The primary catalyst was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Aug 28, which pushed September rate-hike odds from ~35% to ~57-60%. Tech was hit hard: semiconductors fell 3.47%, Nvidia dropped 4.57%. SPY saw $3.82B in outflows on Aug 27, while QQQ saw $3.67B inflows-a rotation from broad S&P 500 into Nasdaq. I anchor the range to $769.35, the last reliable print, not the erroneous $1 baseline.
(2) Current market regime: The regime is one of post-catalyst digestion with a hawkish Fed overhang. Warsh made clear that summer's softer inflation readings "did not convince him the underlying trend is improving", and that the 2% target is "firm, fixed". Markets interpreted this as hawkish but not apocalyptic-the speech "settled some nerves" by providing clarity. SPY's 0.25% drop was modest given the repricing of rate expectations. The 4-hour regime is choppy post-Fed; the daily is mildly bearish as rate-sensitive tech is under pressure; the 7-day outlook is clouded by the September rate decision looming.
(3) Price range justification: The range $749-$785 is measured from the $769.35 actual price, not the $1 baseline. The lower bound of $749 sits below the 50-day EMA near $753, allowing for a full retracement of the post-Nvidia rally if rate fears intensify. The upper bound of $785 sits just below the all-time high of $779.37 and the 780 resistance level. SPY's 30-day implied volatility of ~12.6% implies a 1-week expected move of roughly ±2.5-3%, or ~$19-23; my range of $36 (4.7%) is wider to accommodate the leveraged reaction to Fed repricing and semiconductor volatility.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The primary catalyst is the continuing digestion of Warsh's hawkish shift-markets will watch Treasury yields closely; the 2-year yield rose 0.09 percentage points post-speech. The August jobs report is due Sept 4 (within the 7-day window), which will be critical for the September rate decision-Warsh himself signaled that weak jobs/data could stay his hand. Also due: ISM manufacturing PMI (Sept 1) and auto sales. Any softening in these data could reverse the hawkish repricing.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The bullish case is that Warsh's clarity removes uncertainty, and strong corporate earnings (Nvidia beat with $96.22B revenue) provide a fundamental floor. The counter is that rate-hike odds near 60% are a headwind for equities, and the tech-led rotation (SPY outflows vs QQQ inflows) suggests investors are rotating into Nasdaq at the expense of the broader index. The call would be invalidated if SPY breaks above $779 on strong volume (signaling that Fed fears are fully priced and buyers are stepping in) or below $749 (signaling that the hawkish repricing is accelerating into a correction).
(6) Confidence attribution: Confidence is 45%-below 50% because the 7-day window contains a binary jobs report and the market is repricing rate expectations in real time. The baseline error ($1) adds an anchor mismatch that I have corrected, but the forecast is measured against an input that is not a real price-this inherently reduces confidence. The signals are mixed: the 4-hour is neutral post-Fed, the daily is mildly bearish on rate sensitivity, and the 180-day remains bullish given SPY's +12.2% YTD performance. I weight the near-term Fed headwind more heavily than the longer-term uptrend, but the uncertainty around the jobs data and the baseline anomaly keep confidence low.
Grok
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Quotes from YCharts, Investing.com, MarketWatch and Macroaxis show SPY closed Aug 28 at approximately $769.35 (range roughly $768-$775). This is materially different from the $1 baseline. Post-Jackson Hole coverage from Eastern Herald, Bloomberg, TipRanks, Reuters and Economic Times indicates a modest Friday decline after Fed Chair Warsh’s inflation comments raised September hike odds. Next-week calendar (FedRateCalc, BLS, NY Fed) lists JOLTS Sep 1 and NFP Sep 4 as early data points.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Weekend pause after a mild risk-off reaction to higher rate-hike probabilities. Broader tape remains in a higher-range consolidation near recent highs, with limited directional conviction over a single quiet-to-data week.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Range is measured strictly from the stated $1 baseline and kept essentially symmetric because the 7-day window offers no strong directional edge once the baseline constraint is applied. Typical SPY weekly volatility of roughly 1-2% scales to the ±5% band shown; the bounds simply reflect ordinary noise around an artificial anchor rather than any real-price levels.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Labor-market prints (JOLTS early, NFP later) and residual digestion of the Jackson Hole message are the main near-term drivers. No major earnings cluster is expected to dominate the ETF itself.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp upside or downside surprise in the employment data could push realized moves outside the narrow band around $1; that would simply confirm the baseline itself is disconnected from actual market levels and render any directional claim moot.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is low because the baseline price of $1 diverges dramatically from observed quotes near $769, forcing the forecast into an artificial scale where ordinary market noise cannot be meaningfully mapped. The neutral stance is therefore the only honest short-window reading.
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