This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-05 18:03 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC, when IONQ closed at $40.46, up 2.4% from $39.52 when the forecast was made. It traded between $39.46 and $44.42 along the way (-0.2% to +12.4%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-05 18:03 UTC (9/5/2026, 2:03:40 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC (9/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-08 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 73.94 elapsed hours. Timing: Weekend / holiday. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 6 models called a direction, and 4 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $36.50–$43.50 | -8.0% to +9.7% | 77% | $39.67 | 82.4 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $39.00–$40.00 | -1.3% to +1.2% | 95% | $39.52 | 50.9 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $37.00–$42.50 | -6.4% to +7.5% | 38% | $39.52 | 78.4 | right |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $37.50–$42.50 | -5.1% to +7.5% | 53% | $39.52 | 80.7 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $37.50–$41.80 | -5.1% to +5.8% | 52% | $39.52 | 79.7 | right |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | $37.00–$42.20 | -6.9% to +6.2% | 42% | $39.75 | 30.6 | wrong |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-05 18:03 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 7 | — | 1 | 5 · 5 right | 1 · 0 right | 83% (5/6) |
| Grok 4.5 | 7 | — | 1 | 5 · 4 right | 1 · 0 right | 67% (4/6) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 7 | — | 0 | 5 · 4 right | 2 · 0 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 6 | — | 2 | 2 · 1 right | 2 · 0 right | 25% (1/4) |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | 7 | — | 1 | — | 6 · 1 right | 17% (1/6) |
Every published IONQ forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-05 18:03 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: September 5 is a Saturday, so there is no regular U.S. equity session at the requested timestamp. The latest verified tradable reference is IONQ at $39.67 after hours on September 4, with the September 4 regular close at $39.52; StockAnalysis reports $39.75 after hours at 7:59 PM ET, while Investing.com reports $39.67 later in the session. I therefore classify data access as partial rather than live. Sources: StockAnalysis and Investing.com. ([stockanalysis.com](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/history/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(2) Technical synthesis: IONQ has recovered from the early-September selloff, rising from a $37.64 close on September 2 to $39.02 on September 3 and $39.52 on September 4. The September 4 session reached $39.73, putting price just below the psychologically important $40 area, but the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $84.64. Sources: StockAnalysis and Investing.com. ([stockanalysis.com](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/history/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(3) Price range: For the next one-day market window, I estimate $36.50-$43.50 around the $39.67 reference. The downside allows a retracement toward the recent $36.79-$37.64 support region, while the upper side allows a breakout through $40 toward the recent late-August trading zone near $42.94-$45.46. I am using a wide interval because IONQ's recent daily ranges have frequently exceeded 4%, and the stock is sensitive to event-driven sentiment. Sources: StockAnalysis and ChartExchange. ([chartexchange.com](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-ionq/historical/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(4) Catalysts: The main company-specific catalyst is IonQ Investor Day on September 8 at 12:30 PM ET, confirmed on IonQ's official investor-relations calendar. Barron's says investors are expected to focus particularly on the financial and strategic implications of the $1.8 billion SkyWater acquisition and IonQ's broader plans for quantum computing. Source: IonQ Investor Relations and Barron's. ([investors.ionq.com](https://investors.ionq.com/events-and-presentations/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish case is that IONQ has produced three consecutive sessions of recovery and quantum-computing interest remains strong; a September 4 market article from Motley Fool continued to highlight IonQ as a leading pure-play quantum company. The bearish case is that MarketBeat recently identified a bearish death-cross pattern on IONQ, reflecting a still-weak longer-term technical structure, while higher Treasury yields remain a headwind for speculative growth stocks. Sources: Motley Fool and MarketBeat. ([marketbeat.com](https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/these-3-stock-charts-just-flashed-the-dreaded-death-cross-pattern/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 77%. The near-term setup is moderately constructive because price has recovered toward $40 and the September 8 Investor Day provides a concrete catalyst inside the coming week. I use a stronger bullish seven-day signal than one-day signal because the event could reinforce the recent recovery, but maintain wide price bounds and avoid an aggressive long-term view because the broader trend and valuation remain highly uncertain.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data retrieval and sources: I retrieved live market data showing IonQ Inc. (IONQ) closed at $39.52 on Friday, September 4, 2026, with an intraday high of $39.73 and low of $38.83 according to NYSE historical quotes.
(2) Market regime: The 1-day forecast window spans from Saturday evening to Sunday evening. Because the primary US equities market is closed for the weekend, the spot price of the stock will not experience active daily trading volume or directional shifts.
(3) Price range justification: Anchoring from the Friday close of $39.52, I am setting a very tight 1-day range between $39.00 and $40.00. The spot market price will remain static through Sunday, and this tight range accounts for any minor variance seen in thin weekend quoting or sentiment shifts leading into Monday.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: There are no scheduled catalysts within this specific 1-day weekend window. Market focus generally remains on broader sector sentiment and IonQ's recent earnings, which showed a notable revenue increase but persistent lack of profitability.
(5) Counter-arguments and invalidation: The only factor that could invalidate this tight weekend range would be an unexpected macroeconomic shock or major corporate announcement over the weekend that drastically alters sentiment and causes a significant gap upon the next market open.
(6) Confidence assessment: My confidence is 95% because the US equity markets are completely closed during the 1-day forecast window, ensuring the price will remain effectively unchanged from Friday's closing level.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $39.52 (up 1.28% from Thursday’s $39.02), day range $38.83-$39.73, volume ~13M, per Stocknear, IonQ investor relations and MarketWatch. After-hours held near $39.75. Markets are closed for the weekend; this is the last official print. 52-week range $25.89-$84.64.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Continued modest rebound for the high-beta quantum-computing name, building on Thursday’s gain. Price action remains contained within a recent consolidation range while tracking broader risk appetite in speculative growth stocks.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $39.52 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $1.5-$3+ and elevated beta support a next-session window of roughly ±5-7%. Lower bound near $37 allows for a modest pullback; upper bound near $42.50 covers extension of the rebound. Range is roughly balanced with a mild upside bias from the recent recovery.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Markets reopen Monday 7 Sep. Overnight global or sector developments could influence the open. No company-specific earnings or major filings expected in the immediate next session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off open in growth/tech could push IONQ below $37; stronger continuation of the rebound could drive a break above $42.50. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed and the short-term direction is constructive, yet high-volatility speculative names produce large noise on single-day horizons; weekend gap risk and absence of stock-specific catalysts keep conviction moderate-to-low.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-05 18:03 UTC), US equity markets are closed for the weekend. The last available quote is from the September 4 regular session close, with IONQ at $39.52, up 1.28% on the day. Intraday range was $38.83-$39.73, and after-hours trading pushed to $39.68-$39.75. The 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64. I have anchored my range to the regular session close of $39.52, as it represents the most reliable settled price available at window start.
(2) Current market regime: IONQ has been consolidating in the $38-$40 range since late August, recovering from its August 28 low near $38.64. The stock remains below its 50-day moving average of $41.66 and 200-day moving average of $43.52, indicating a medium-term downtrend, though short-term momentum has turned mildly positive. The company reported Q2 revenue of $80.05 million, up 287% year-over-year, and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $280-$290 million. However, the company remains unprofitable with a negative P/E ratio of -8.58 and a beta of 2.98, reflecting high volatility. The stock has a market cap of approximately $15.8-$16.0 billion.
(3) Price range justification: I expect IONQ to trade between $37.50 and $42.50 over the next 1-day window (the next trading session on September 8, as September 7 is a US holiday). The lower bound of $37.50 is informed by the $38.83 intraday low from September 4, with additional cushion for potential gap-down risk over the long weekend. The upper bound of $42.50 is informed by the $42.00 level identified in recent after-hours trading and the resistance near the 50-day moving average of $41.66. The range is asymmetric to the upside because the upcoming September 8 investor day is a significant catalyst that could trigger a rally if management delivers a compelling combined guidance following the SkyWater acquisition.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The primary catalyst is the investor day on Tuesday, September 8 at the NYSE, where management is expected to provide a combined financial forecast following the $1.8 billion SkyWater acquisition. Analysts expect a multiyear revenue forecast for the combined company, which would be a first for IonQ. The company recently appointed Dr. Eric Ball and Timothy Baxter to its board, adding technology and finance leadership experience. Additionally, public warrants exercisable at $11.50 expire on September 30, 2026, which could create dilution concerns but is outside the 1-day window.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that IonQ is significantly undervalued relative to Wall Street consensus. Analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus with an average projected level of $65.63-$67.68, implying substantial upside from current levels. The SkyWater acquisition gives IonQ control of its own semiconductor fabrication, potentially accelerating development and creating a vertically integrated quantum platform. A positive surprise at the investor day-such as a strong combined guidance or a major government contract-could trigger a sharp rally toward $42-$44. Conversely, if the investor day fails to impress or if management provides disappointing guidance, the stock could retest the $37-$38 support level. A break below $37.50 would invalidate my bullish 1-day view.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 53%, reflecting a stock in a consolidation phase with a clear catalyst (September 8 investor day) but uncertain outcome. The 1-day window spans a long holiday weekend, effectively making this a gap-risk assessment for the September 8 session. The stock's beta of 2.98 means it is highly sensitive to broader market moves, creating additional two-way risk. I am more confident in the $37.50-$42.50 range than in the precise path within it, and I acknowledge that a positive investor day outcome could push the stock toward the upper end of the range while a disappointment could drive it toward the lower end.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Retrieved live quote from Finnhub search result showing IONQ Current Price 39.52, Open 39.07 High 39.73 Low 38.83 Previous Close 39.02, and MacroTrends confirming latest closing price for IonQ as of Sep 04 2026 is 39.52 with 52-week high 84.64. Transcript Daily note Sep 4 2026 reports shares up 1.1% trading as high as $39.73 last at $39.44 on 12.9M volume vs average 24.6M. Also DailyPolitical Sep 5 note reports IONQ trading up 3.9% Thursday previously closed $37.64.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum pure-plays in volatile regime - Beta 3.35, large drawdown from Oct 2025 high $82.09, now ~52% off high. Recent news flow dominated by M&A integration (SkyWater $1.8B deal expected to close by end September 2026, Skyloom closed) and board reshaping ahead of investor day at NYSE. Sector split noted by Barchart Aug 19: IONQ -8.47% same day as QTUM -2.35%, showing high beta to risk-off.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $39.52 close Sep 4. Using observed intraday range $38.83-39.73 (~2.3% range) and 5-day swing $37.64-41.06 (~8% range from Barchart). For 1-day weekend window (next tradable print Monday), set $37.50 low to include Sep 3 close support and $41.80 high to include recent $41.06 rejection. Slight upside skew due to positive momentum into close and acquisition closure timeline providing floor.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings inside 1-day (Q2 2026 already reported). Main catalyst is SkyWater acquisition shareholder vote and regulatory approval expected by end September 2026, plus investor day Tuesday at NYSE flagged in NewsCase article designed to address gap between operational momentum and stock chart. Jobs report Sep 5 may drive beta risk appetite - futures up 0.07% after report per Nasdaq note, supportive for high-beta quantum.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is continued repricing of pure-play quantum valuations - article notes IONQ dropped 42.9% in period while IBM -12.4%, with lack of near-term revenue vs Intel AI capex. Invalidating to upside would be breakout above $41.06 recent high on volume >24M; to downside, close below $37.64 prior close on expanding volume would suggest momentum failure.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 52% - live price anchor is high confidence, but 1-day direction in high-beta small-cap quantum is dominated by noise and market beta. Volume declining 47% below average suggests indecision, supporting NEUTRAL short-term despite mild bullish close. Stated honestly low-medium confidence.
claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5)
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: IONQ's last regular-session close was Friday September 4 at $39.52, up 1.28%, in a $38.83-$39.73 range on 13.1M shares. Extended-hours trading then finished at $39.75 (+0.58%) with the last print timestamped 7:59pm EDT, and I re-checked the quote during this window on September 5 to confirm nothing newer exists - it does not (stockanalysis.com). That $39.75 is therefore my anchor: about 18 hours old by clock, but the most recent transaction in existence. Market cap is $15.70B and the 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64, leaving the stock roughly 53% below its high. The last ten sessions have chopped violently without direction, spanning $37.64 to $42.46 with daily moves of 4-8% in both directions.
(2) Current market regime: hostile to long-duration, pre-profit equities, and quantum is the purest expression of that cohort. August payrolls printed 162,000 against forecasts near 55-65k with unemployment steady at 4.1% (UPI, CNBC), front-end Treasury yields set 52-week highs Friday (2Y 4.374%, 5Y 4.545% per TheStreet), and September rate-hike pricing is contested - near 50% per TheStreet after Governor Waller's dovish remarks, 60.2% from 49.4% per 247wallst.com. The revealing detail is where the money went on that print: semiconductors rallied hard (SOXX +3%, Intel +4%, NVIDIA +2%) while IONQ managed only +1.28% and SPY fell 0.39%. The bid is going to profitable AI infrastructure, not to speculative quantum, and the sector still trades as one correlated basket with investors focused on losses and cash burn (TipRanks).
(3) Price range justification: the governing fact is that nothing can trade inside this window. It runs Saturday 2:03pm ET to Sunday 2:03pm ET - cash markets closed, extended hours finished Friday at 8:00pm ET, and single stocks have no overnight futures market. Read at window close, IONQ is $39.75 and can be nothing else. The band $37.00 to $42.20 is sized instead for the next print that will actually exist, Tuesday September 8, since Monday September 7 is a market holiday (financecalendar.com), using the roughly 5% realized daily sigma of the last ten sessions plus a three-day weekend gap allowance. It carries a mild downward tilt - 6.9% of room below versus 6.2% above - reflecting the rate-sensitivity asymmetry rather than any company-specific problem.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: none. There are no weekend releases and no market to price them into, and I found no IonQ-specific news dated this weekend. Company-wise there is nothing scheduled in the coming week either: Q2 was reported August 6 - revenue near $80M, up 287% year over year and about 20% above Street, with full-year 2026 guidance raised to $280-290M from $260-270M and management reiterating at least 100% organic growth (Benzinga) - and Q3 lands in November. So what trades next week is macro: PPI and jobless claims Thursday September 10 at 8:30am ET, and August CPI Friday September 11 at 8:30am ET (Kiplinger economic calendar).
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: on the near horizons there is nothing to be wrong about except my anchor, which I verified twice. On the 7d call, the fundamentals genuinely do not support a structural bear case - 287% revenue growth with raised guidance is not deterioration, and the sell-side sits mostly above spot at Rosenblatt $100, Cantor $70, Needham $65, with JPMorgan the bear at $50 Neutral (Benzinga). IONQ also closed higher two sessions running into the weekend. The call is invalidated if CPI comes in at or below consensus and hike odds retreat, or if the stock clears the $42.46 August 27 high on expanding volume. It is also fair to say the last ten sessions read as directionless rather than as a downtrend, so the lean is thin by construction.
(6) Confidence justification: 42%, blending two different kinds of certainty. The 1h, 4h and 1d NEUTRAL signals are near-certain mechanically rather than analytically - no session exists inside the window, so an unchanged price is close to a given. The 7d MILD BEARISH is much weaker: it rests entirely on a rate-regime asymmetry and one binary data point, in a name that has spent two weeks proving it can move 6-8% either way on nothing in particular. The 30d NEUTRAL is a deliberate abstention around the September 16 FOMC, where a hostile rate path and an unusually strong revenue trajectory genuinely offset each other.
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